Cheltenham in almost 3 weeks time!

Well, with Cheltenham a matter of weeks away I thought I'd better crack the blog machine back into action and outline my early fancies for a few of the races. I'd love to hear your thoughts, agree or disagree, and hopefully we can help each other on the road to some Cheltenham winnings! Although the Handicap entries are not out yet, which makes things a bit tricky, I've looked at 3 races on day 1 of the festival to make a nice little e/w treble!

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Well, one thing is for sure and that is I do not want to back ante-post favourite Melon at 7/2, especially after the form of his debut win was let down at Navan as Broken Soul, the 2nd that day, failed to fire in a maiden hurdle. Moon Racer has quite an absence (again) to overcome, Ballyandy is quite interesting of the market leaders but I actually like one at a big price here, and would advise going NRNB for this one as Nicky Henderson has said he may go to the Neptune. Beyond Conceit for me is a decent little e/w bet at 25/1. He was out that the weekend at Ascot, and never looked like winning until the closing stages, pulling like a train and refusing to settle. The fact he won impressed me, and he certainly shaped as if he will love the Cheltenham Hill in just over 3 weeks time. If Nicky sticks a hood on him and it helps him settle a bit better, buried in the pack I could see Beyond Conceit picking a few rivals off up the hill and certainly rewarding e/w backers.

Arkle

Altior should win this on the bridle, especially with Yorkhill likely to go for the JLT, Identity Thief probably not making the festival and the rest certainly not up to Altior's standard, or anywhere near it. However, one who is an assured jumper, has some good form in the book and should be going for the race is Ball D'Arc for Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown Stud. He was a cosy winner of a Grade 3 LTO at Navan, his rival in the market falling, but with the owners not having anything obvious for this race now I hope they may take a punt that Ball D'Arc could run with credit for them

Champion Hurdle

Looks a super open race; the favourite Buveur Dair was a ready winner at Sandown on his return to hurdles from fences but quite what that form is worth I'm not so sure. Petit Mouchoir is a more attractive bet at the head of the market as he should arguably be unbeaten this season and looks a massively improved character. I feel his form is underrated, perhaps still being judged on what he achieved, or didn't, last season but you must ignore that. 5/1 is fair given the open nature of the race and the fact he brings the best form to the table.