Boxing Day Bonanza

Well I couldn't resist, despite not quite having the time to blog during term time the absolute feast of horse racing on Boxing Day has me dusting off the blogging fingertips and writing a small preview of some of the racing on the 26th December

1.05 Wincanton 

Dusky Lark is the pick over at Wincanton in this 4 runner race. He finished second at Kempton and had been off the track for 200 days which was no mean feat. He looked a bit ring rusty and didn’t jump as well as he can but that is surely to be expected given that absence, after all there is only so well you can test them at home. I certainly think he is on a winning mark and he showed the benefit of that run when running close behind a very impressive winner in Poker School Ascot in early December. Will love some good winter ground according to the trainer and can finally get his head in front here.


1.30 Kempton 

Sizing Tennessee has run a couple of excellent races for Colin Tizzard in Novice company and come up against some top horses in O O Seven and Whisper. Off a mark of 139 he is pretty interesting now sent handicapping in a field where there are no stand out horses IMO. Interestingly, Aidan Coleman reported that Sizing Tennessee jumped out the the right somewhat last time out so Kempton should help him post an improved performance in that regard. However, if Dusky Lark bolts up in the 1.05 at Wincanton then Poker School will have to be given maximum respect here so perhaps wait and see that the Lark does first!

1.55 Down Royal

We head over to Ireland for the 2nd bet and it is The Storyteller in this maiden hurdle. The form of his last run, a 2nd place to Monalee, is working out well with that horse going on to split Death Duty and Invitation Only in a hurdle at Navan last weekend, some very good form. That was only his 2nd run over hurdles, he was an unlucky faller in his first race when going very well, but the run last time out showed that has left no damage fortunately. I fancy The Storyteller to make it 3rd time lucky here.

Will this man be celebrating just after 2pm?

2.05 Kempton

I reckon Amore Alato could be worth a right bet in the Novice Chase at Kempton (12/1 atm). He got off the mark first time out this season when making most of the running to land a Listed intermediate chase at Sandown seven weeks ago, and he usually comes on for the run looking at his form so should improve for that run. I also think this 3 mile trip should help, the trainer has said going 3 miles has been the long term plan but they wanted to give him a bit more experience first. While he hasn't got the flashiest or most progressive profile in the race I think he has a definite e/w chance because the trainer has said this will be his gold cup whereas some of the other types like Aniable Fly (the favourite) will have bigger days in mind and I wonder if this race will come too soon for Frodon after his big handicap win in tough conditions last time out. Amore Alato has the Champion jockey on board and I think he could prove hard to catch if he can get the early lead he loves.

2.40 Kempton

This is a pretty tricky race now my main fancy, Vroom Vroom Mag is out! I've had a bet on Yanworth for the Champion Hurdle but that's at Cheltenham where the testing track will bring his stamina more into play than the flat 2 mile test at Kempton. I wonder if he will get slightly done for speed here and at the prices I will definitely be avoiding him. Gray Wolf River's connections deserve praise for spotting this opportunity but she has no chance, Ch'tibello has 22 lbs to find on ratings at least with The New One, 10lbs with My Tent or Yours and 12 with Yanworth so also looks to have been set a stiff task. Which brings it down the TNO or MTOY's for a bet in this race, and I think I'd have to side with the Tent to finally get a win on the boards at 4/1 compared to TNO at 15/8. However, with the feast of racing on offer on Monday I doubt I will bother betting in a race as trappy as this.

3.15 Kempton

I certainly think the winner of the King George will be trained by this man, but which horse will it be?

What a King George - well in terms of a huge head to head clash that is. With only 5 runners there is not a huge quantity in the race but with Cue Card and Thistlecrack lining up to do battle this could be a race for the ages. In fact I am going to ignore Josses Hill, Conti and Tea for Two, all good horses but horses I do not expect to be winning a King George. We have to focus on the big 2; the proven form of Cue Card, Betfair Chase winner and reigning King George Champion coming up against the potential of Thistlecrack, winner of the World Hurdle last year and in possession of what I think could be the biggest engine in horse racing. And I'm siding with the potential that Thistlecrack brings to the table. I seriously think if he can jump well he could be one of the best horses we have ever seen , not just this season. The way he won the World Hurdle last year, jumping the last and still pulling for his head, just shows you the power under his bonnet and whist his jumping is still a work in progress, it is progressing. His performance last time out was much better than that we saw at Cheltenham the time before and if Tizzard can get him to progress again this could be a special performance. Cue Card will jump well and will serve up a huge challenge to his stablemate but I think in this small field, where his jumping should be under less pressure than a big field race, Thistlecrack can show us just what is under the bonnet and take King George glory.

Boxing Day Bets

1.05 Wincanton Dusky Lark
1.30 Kempton Sizing Tennessee
1.55 Down Royal The Storyteller
2.05 Kempton Amore Alato
3.15 Kempton Thistlecrack

York Races - Ebor Day

This Saturday we see the culmination of the York Ebor Festival, day 4 of a feast of racing that has seen the Yorkshire Oaks, The Nunthorpe, The Juddmonte and plenty of other cracking races. However, Saturday is the main day on the Knavesmire as this is host to the feature race of the meeting; The Ebor Heratige Handicap over 1 mile 6 furlongs. We look like getting a bit of rain in the area on Friday and Saturday, so I will be previewing races as if there is more good than good to firm which has been present on day's 1 & 2. And, with that caveat out the way, lets press on to the Saturday action.

Runners will come in front of packed grandstands on Saturday

1.45 - Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes (Handicap)

Initially I wanted to back a three year old in this handicap that opens the Saturday card, that is until I looked down at the previous 11 winners and found that precisely 0 three year olds had managed to win the race in this time period. This is especially interesting given the head of the market appears to feature a few three year olds, so may give us a slight advantage if this trend is continued. Indeed, another trend that struck me was that Richard Fahey has taken this race three times in that time period, and his runner Imshivilla looks quite interesting to me. Earlier this year she won a good handicap at Epsom over this distance off a mark 4 lbs lower than this, but since that race she ran on the all weather (may not have acted), over a mile (where she was a good 4th) and then at Goodwood, where the ground may have been too firm. This horse will appreciate all the rain that comes now, and back at her ideal trip with ground set to suit she is the each way selection in the opening race.

2.15 -Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3)

Up next we have a good looking Group 3 race in which I am taking a horse to step out of the shadow of his more illustrious stablemate, and horse he is often given pacemaking duties to, Time Test and show just how good he is in his own right. Countermeasure is the selection for me here, a horse taking a significant class drop having contested Group 2 and 1 races the last twice (and running with credit each time). Both those races have shown this horse to be a talented individual, and he has plenty of experience on softer ground in his past form. Now he has his chance to show just how good he is in his own right and I expect him to certainly make the frame.

2.50 -Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap)

In race three, a three year old handicap, I'm taking the trainer of the winner last year in Mark Johnston to provide the 2016 winner in the shape of Jaameh. The selection has caught my eye the last twice, firstly at Ripon where he was beaten by the progressive Knights Table but ran with credit on ground firmer than ideal and the last day, when staying on very nicely over 14 furlongs at Goodwood (turning form around with Knights Table). The way he was going at the end of that race makes this extra 2 furlongs in trip look certain to suit and with a bit of give in the ground also ideal considering the impression he left when romping to victory in soft ground at Haydock earlier this season Jaameh is the selection here.

3.25 - Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)

This is a seriously hot 2 year old race, with plenty of horses bringing very good form in the book to the table. I really fancied Blue Point to win at Goodwood the last day given the impression he had left following his 2 runs earlier this season. However, he was beaten by Mehmas, who produced one of the 2 year old performances of the season that day to take glory. Blue Point shaped well in behind however, only going down by a neck, is certainly suited by this 6 furlong trip (whereas some, like The Last Lion and Global Applause seem suited by 5 furlongs) and gets William Buick back on board, who won on him on debut. This looks a very good race, but I really liked Blue Point the first two times I saw him this season and do not want to desert him after a sole defeat.

4.00 -Betfred Ebor Heritage Handicap

The big race of the day, and indeed the feature race of the whole festival, the Ebor Heritage Handicap. And it isn't an easy one to get the winner of, with 25/, 33/1 and 25/1 winners in the last 5 renewals of the race so don't be put off if your selection is a big price! Unfortunately, past weights carried by winners are slightly redundant as the race has got classier and classier, indeed 2 winners of the last 5 renewals wouldn't even get into the race this year! However, I would still advise looking to the lower end of the weights, and maybe consider these other stats while narrowing down your pick...

• 8 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 6f or further
• 8 of the 9 winners at York came from a double figure stall
• 7 of the last 10 winners had won that season
• 7 of the last 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season

Now, I'm not going to put up a horse who fills all of those trends, but the one I am suggesting is drawn 10, has won over course and distance, carries under 9 stone and has won this season. The pick for the Ebor is Shrewd for Iain Jardine who is enjoying an excellent season. Fine young apprentice Clifford Lee takes the ride, hence the lovely low weight after Lee's 7lbs claim is taken into account, and Shrewd comes here in fine fettle. He looks a horse who is continually progressive on the flat having made a very successful switch from the jumps code and this is very encouraging for his stamina reserves. As I say, he has won over this distance and over this course actually, will love a bit of give in the ground and looks like being a juicy e/w price for the feature race of the day.

4.35 - Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed)

The penultimate race of the say is a 2 year old race over 5 furlongs and it looks a tricky one, with plenty of unexposed types. I certainly couldn't be confident here but would go for potentially the most unexposed in the unbeaten Sutter County for Mark Johnston. The trainer has a fine record with 2 year old horses, and unlike a few of these who would prefer 6 furlongs or a stiff 5, the speed test of a York 5 furlong race should suit Sutter County down to the ground. He acts on ground with a bit of dig in, has been freshened up after his last run and could well have been kept for this race by Johnston.

5.05 -Betfred Apprentice Stakes (Handicap)

Finally, we end with an apprentice handicap over 5 furlongs and as the name suggests it is restricted to apprentice riders. Therefore, it is often an advantage to look for a rider who knows what they are doing on a horse and in Callum Shepherd I think we have one on the selection, El Astronaute for the John Quinn yard. He ran well at Goodwood at the Glorious Goodwood Festival but was drawn on the wrong side which made things very tough, so definitely upgrade his 10th place finish that day. The handicapper is starting to give him a chance now, he is actually 1 lbs lower than his last winning mark, and I think it is only a matter of time before he strikes in one of these sprint handicaps.

Many thanks for reading and good luck of you play!

Alex Bellew

Selections

1.45 Imshivilla e/w

2.15 Countermeasure

2.50 Jaameh e/w

3.25 Blue Point 

4.00 Shrewd e/w

4.35 Sutter County

5.05 El Astronaute e/w

Glorious Goodwood - Stewards Cup Day

And onto the fifth day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting we go. Unfortunately, if you've not had too much luck so far it doesn't get any easier now with some fiendishly difficult handicaps on the last day of the Festival but with that we do get some big prices so lets have a look at the action on Saturday.

Who will emulate Magical Memory and take the Stewards Cup this year?

We start off with the Consolation Race For The Qatar Stewards' Cup, a handicap over 5 furlongs for horses that didn't make the cut in the big one on Saturday. And my pick here is Gamesome from the Paul Midgley stable. Now, Gamesome is draw in a stall of 26, but I've looked back and while the previous two years have seen low drawn winners, when the ground has been good we've had winners come from stalls 27 and 22 in the last 7 years, so draw 26 may not be a huge negative. Now, Gamesome has come 2nd the last twice but the horses he was 2nd to went on to fight out a red-hot sprint handicap at Ascot recently so the form looks really strong. He races here off that exact same mark, so I reckon he could well be on a decent rating, and this step up to 6 furlongs is no negative either as he has winning form at the distance. Gamesome goes on a variety of ground and he is my horse to go to war with in the opener of Goodwood's final day.

Moving on to race 2 where we have a 3 year old handicap in which I'm keen on the chances of Knights Table. This horse has won his last three races and has thus gone up in the handicap, but the way he won at Ripon the last day was definitely not done in the style of a horse who is in the grip of the handicapper. Knights Table came from the rear of the field that day, not the easiest thing to do at Ripon (a front runners track) and won easily, going away towards the line. He is again up in the weights but he was very impressive that day and I like his chances of getting a 4 timer here.

The Nassau stakes looks an absolute point and shoot race for super filly Minding so we will leave that one alone and instead plough onto the big race of the day in terms of betting, the Stewards Cup.

The first horse I want here comes from the head of the market in Toofi. I think this horse is a ticking timebomb for the Robert Cowell yard, a master trainer of sprinters. Neither of his starts this year have done him justice at all, including when four lengths eighth of 28 to his stablemate Outback Traveller in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out. Toofi was punted before that race, so is clearly well thought of, but in the race he was simply set to much to do coming from last in the stand-side group. He did really well to even finish where he did that day, but we can benefit here as he has actually been dropped a pound for that effort. Drawn high enough in 23, but 2 years ago the winner came from 22 and the year before that from 26, Toofi is the first selection for this one.

And for a second horse here I want to be with one drawn nice and low in stall three in Jamesie for David Marnane and Patt Dobbs. Jamesie has been to Goodwood for this race before, finishing a really good 6th place, was quite a young horse then and could have been phased by the huge handicap field that day. Now, with much more experience under his belt, and some proven class in the book (beating the likes of Gordon Lord Bryon a few years back), in a lovely low draw I think Jamesie could well secure a place in this super competitive race. In a big handicap like this I really like an experienced horse who will just get on with it and in Jamesie I hope we have that.

The final selection from a wonderful week at Goodwood comes in the closing apprentice race, where I will put up Freight Train for the Mark Johnston team who have enjoyed a fruitful week at Goodwood. And Mark has gone out of his way to book top apprentice rider, and one with plenty of experience of winning big handicap races, in Louis Steward. Freight Train won 2 runs ago before posting a slightly disappointing effort when upped to 10 furlongs at Ripon the last day. His stamina just faded in the final furlong of that race, having led and looked in with a chance 2 out, so this step back down in trip looks sure to suit. Having a top jockey in these type of races is always important and we have that, so with a nice low draw I'm hoping Freight Train can end the Goodwood festival on a high.

Many thanks for reading and best of luck with your bets.

Goodwood Selections - It's an each way day!

2.00 Gamesome e/w
2.35 Knights Table e/w
3.10 Minding Win
3.45 Toofi e/w & Jamesie e/w
6.00 Freight Train e/w

The Penultimate Day of Glorious Goodwood

Will we see super impressive 2 year old Emotionless bounce back on Friday?

It's onto the penultimate day of the Glorious Goodwood festival and another decent day of action.  Day three was frustrating with two selections second and one third, close but no cigar. We open the card with a competitive looking group three event in which you could make the case for a number of these. Scottish comes here off the back of an impressive win last time out, and he is the highest rated horse in the field. You could argue, however, that that tag should belong to King's Fete, Sir Michael Stoute's charge who missed the whole of 2015 and then was very unlucky to only finish third in a hot handicap, a neck behind Elite Army receiving weight as well, albeit just 1 pound. He has run well at Goodwood before, finishing 2nd over C&D in 2014, so the track should pose no problems and with the services of Ryan Moore on top I expect King's Fete to go very close in the opener of day 4.

We then move on to a tremendously interesting mile race, where super impressive 2 year old Emotionless rocks up after a reappearance run in the St James' Palace stakes at Ascot the last day. He is clearly still really well thought of at home to be given such a still task on reappearance, however I remember that day that connections were very keen to stress the horse would come on for the run. Indeed, Cymric finished well ahead of Emotionless that day and I suppose at the prices Emotionless is too short. He was such a special 2 year old however that I'm going to hope that Charlie Appleby has managed to get plenty of work into him since then, and with first time headgear also on a small win bet on Emotionless is the play here. 

I'm going to take a watching brief today with regards to the future with the Hugo Palmer trained They Seek Him Here. Now, after all I've said about Emotionless needing his reappearance run i'm weighing in with another long time absentee, a horse who has been off the track almost a year. However, this horse is an absolutely gorgeous horse.He is bred to be a much better three-year-old than two-year-old, so I am more than hopeful that he will have trained on. It is a bit concerning to have not seen him so far this year, but Hugo is a top trainer and a patient one and this horse could well develop into a St Leger horse by the end of the season. Even if you don't back a horse in this race, watch the run of They Seek Him Here and consider him for future assignments, with this run under his belt.

If we were hoping things became a little easier from there on in, well sadly they don't! The Betfred mile is a difficult looking race, the market made by Franklin D, ridden by Ryan Moore, who has secured the plum inside draw. However the price is now plenty skinny enough at 7/2, even allowing for how impressive he was last time out, as we've seen already this week luck in running is vital at this track. Instead I'm going for the more attractively priced Boomshackerlacker at 20/1, a horse who has good form over 7 furlongs and a mile, so will have tactical speed if required to get out of a pocket. George Baker had the winner of this race the last year so knows what is required to win this and Boomshackerlacker hasn't done badly with the draw, a berth is stall 8 decent enough. He runs off a mark of 100, 3 lbs higher than his win last time out, but I like a horse in form for these races and he looks a solid e/w bet.

In the 5 furlong sprint, the King George Stakes, I'm keen on Cotai Glory who will very much appreciate the return to 5 furlongs here having been tried over 6 furlongs the last day. All his best form is over the 5 furlong trip, he has finished 2nd twice in some really hot spring races this season, and George Baker gets on really well with him. Cotai Glory is very much my horse for the King George sprint, but Jungle Cat is also worthy of a mention. He too has run some very nice races this season and did actually win over in Meydan in January. Again unsuited I feel by the step up to 6 furlongs last time out, coming back to 5 furlongs will see him in much better light and if allowed two against the field Jungle Cat would be the 2nd selection.

I'll be taking a watching brief in the next two races on the card and come back otu of the shadows in time for the 5.30, the closing race on the card over 1 mile 3 furlongs. Here I want to be with Diamond Geyser for Luca Cumani, a dab hand at winning handicap races with progressive three year olds. This horse was beaten into 2nd the last day by a well handicapped horse I feel, and prior to that he had won his maiden over 12 furlongs. He steps back in trip here but I think his progressive profile will mean he could still be ahead of his mark and I'll side with Diamond Geyser in the closer.

Many thanks for reading and I'll be back for Saturday at Goodwood, home of the Stewards Cup.

Still going - Goodwood day 3

WE move on to day 3 of Glorious Goodwood, and even if the weather is not quite as lovely as many punters were hoping for the show must go on regardless of a bit of rain. And we kick off the card with a three year old handicap where I am keen on the chances of Roger Charlton's High Shields. A winner here 2 starts ago in taking manner, value for more than the winning margin, High Shields was then stepped up in trip at Ascot the last day and perhaps found that trip a touch too far. However, he still ran well to take 4th, only losing third late on when stamina ran out, and back down to 10 furlongs, with Dettori booked for the ride, I am hoping High Shields can continue his progression.

A mention must also go to Dwight D in the opener race. Very few horses managed to overcome a slow start to win during the July Festival and Dwight D wasn't one of them. In fact he had an awful start and every worse luck in running but still managed to get placed in the race which is a decent effort. If things had worked out a little better he could have perhaps even won, although that might be stretching things, but anyhow he could still be on a very workable mark if things go a bit better at the start and in running here. Connections had deemed him worthy of a race in a classic trial earlier in the season so think a bit of him and as I say there could be room for manoeuvre off his current rating.

We then move on to the Richmond stakes, a two year old race that looks pretty hot to me, despite the small field size. And the one I'm keen on here receives 3 lbs from Mehmas, the horse with the most experience to date, and we saw on Tuesday with War Decree how useful receiving weight can be as he won the 2 year old race that day very impressively. Blue Point is my fancy here. He made a winning debut at Nottingham and that form has since been advertised with winners coming out of it . Then next time up he routed the field at Doncaster in a novice stakes, literally winning as he liked by half the track. The youngster could not be in better hands as he is ridden out most days by Derby-winning jockey Willie Ryan and this race looks like it has been the target all along given that progressive race planning. I think he could be a very special horse and fancy him to take this race.

The big race of the day is off at 3.10 and it's the Goodwood Cup, a staying race over 2 miles, and I'm going for the older generation here in the shape of Sheikhzayedroad as an e/w betA lot of the field have a great deal of soft and heavy ground form to their names and I'm unsure if this firmer surface will suit them, where as Sheikhzayedroad has run well at Goodwood and on good and firmer going in the past. It's unlikely he has a great deal of improvement to come off his mark, hence I think there is every chance he will find one too good, but at the prices I really quite like him as an each way bet in the race. He stays, won't mind the ground, acts on the course and ticking those boxed whereas you couldn't say the same for certain with a lot of the other runners, makes Sheikhzayedroad an each way bet for me.

In the 4.20 I'm keen to side with Amabilis, a once raced horse from the Ralph Beckett yard who seems to have his string in fine order recently. Fran Berry takes the ride here and reading his column on Sportinglife he mentions that this race has been the long term plan for this filly. Her debut run at Newmarket was very encouraging, she was a touch keen early but was running on really well in the latter stages of the race and can be expected to come on a bundle for that experience. This trip looks ideal and I think she can make use of a decent enough draw in 6 to shed her maiden tag.

Glorious Goodwood Day 2

Frankel; the world's greatest ever racehorse triumphed in the Sussex Stakes on day 2 in 2012

On day 1 the blog didn't do too well, lets be honest. We had quite a range; fortunately we did have a winner with Dutch Connection coming in, we had a non-runner (the well fancied Harry Angel), a shocking ride on Snoano, Hakeem who ran as his price of 40/1 suggested and then a disappointment in Fun Mac. I was not at all pleased with the ride given to Snoano, held up despite coming down in trip and then making his move when any possible chance of winning had long gone. But onwards and hopefully upwards, day 2 and the big race of the meeting await.


We open day 2 with a long race. Really long. 2 miles 5 furlongs! This unique test is one the National Hunt trainers like to target, for example Nigel TD won it last year, and I fancy the yard of Alan King to supply the winner this year in Oceane. This horse got back to winning ways at Ascot last time out, loves a good, firm surface and considering Alan King would surely have other darts to fire at these longer races it seems significant he sends Oceane here. I'm hoping that Alan thinks the step up in trip will bring about more improvement, and encouragingly the jockey rides at a 20% strike race at Goodwood.

Next up is the the Gordon Stakes, the 2.35 on the card, and Derby disappointment Uylsses is my fancy. Sir Michael Stoute had a few winners the weekend just gone and is going along nicely, and after a rapid step up in grade from winning a maiden to competing in the Derby he has given Uylsses a bit of a break since. The masterful trainer usually brings his horses along steadily, and it was significant that Uylsses was deemed worthy of a Derby spot but that just shows the regard in which he holds the horse. Now he has had a bit of time off, a bit of time to mature and the experience of the Derby under his belt I think we could see the horse Sir Michael sees at home here.

The big race of the day is the Sussex Stakes, a rematch of the St James Stakes at Ascot which Galileo Gold won and The Gurka was deemed an unlucky loser, and that race has had a huge bearing on the market for this one. Galileo Gold is around 2/1, The Gurkha slight fav at 15/8, with Irish Guineas winner Awtaad right out at 6/1. And it's Hugo Palmers Galileo Gold that I fancy for this one. The horse has previously won around Goodwood and also has winning form over 7 furlongs, so is definitely blessed with a bit of pace which will be ideal at this course over a mile. Hugo himself is in fine form at the moment and Galileo Gold, on good, fast racing ground, is taken to confirm Ascot form at the prices.

In the Molecomb stakes I'm so unbelievably keen on Global Applause. I was interested to read Ryan Moore say in his Betfair column that the draw is important but so is running style. Low draw for the speedy types, higher draw is ok for the hold up horses. And make no mistake, Global Applause is speedy, hence his draw in stall 1 is absolutely brilliant. Drawn on the wrong side at Ascot and didn't seem in love with the track the last day, prior to that he was unbeaten over 5 furlongs (his only loss came when stepped up to 6). Global Applause is all speed, should love this fast 5 and rates as my bet of the day.

And that'll do me until the last race on the card, a 7 furlong handicap, where I'm going for the three year old Twin Sails for Dean Ivory. He was a useful enough juvenile but I had been concerned that he hadn't trained on after disappointing in every run this season. However, last time out in first time blinkers he ran his best race of the season to finish a really narrow 2nd, proving that some ability still remains. If Twin Sails can kick on from that run now, with a lovely draw in stall 3, he could be on a nice mark and is worth a go in the finale of day 2.

Goodwood; day 1 of the most Gorgeous festival around

There's a summer treat in store this week as both Goodwood and Galway decide to host their annual festival weeks of moderate racing on the same week, giving us more average handicaps, plot horses and jockey bans than you can shake a stick at!

I'll stop with the negativity there though because these are both tremendously fun and entertaining festivals, especially for Dermot Weld who is already engraving his name on the leading trainer trophy at Galway, having won it the last 30 years! If you can find a horse who acts on either track this is a huge bonus, as is having a jockey who knows what it takes to win on either the unique Goodwood undulations or the hustle and bustle of Galway. And trainers such as Mark Johnston and Dermot Weld need opposing at your peril. 

This blog will be focusing more on Goodwood this week, but if a horse at Galway catches my eye I'll certainly mention it. I'm just conscious that Galway is absolutely riddled with plot horses and have been caught out more times than I dare remember recently, so I now tread with much more caution.

Tuesday at Goodwood

It really is gorgeous!

We start off with a handicap over 10 furlongs at Glorious Goodwood where I'm siding with Snoano after a good 2nd last time out at Ripon over further. Prior to that he finished fourth in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock, a hot handicap, but he has previously been successful in the Queen Mother's Cup over a mile and a half at York in lesser company. Tim Easterby's charge may have found his stamina ebbing away late on at Haydock; the softer ground could have done for him after travelling strongly and being the last horse off the bridle. I marked him down as one worth keeping on the right side on a sounder surface over this distance or slightly shorter and dropped in trip on decent ground here think he is an interesting e/w bet as I think the trip also found him out at Ripon at the business end of the race.

In the Vintage Stakes, the big 2 year old race on day 1, Boynton is the one to beat despite the two-year-old having to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his win in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July Festival. He had War Decree back in 2nd there, despite War Decree being absolutely smashed in the betting, and it could be that those 2 are the ones to fight out the finish. However, I'm willing to forgive Hakeem one bad run in Ireland the last day and bet him e/w at a tasty looking 33/1. Hannon reports him to have put weight back on since then and has been working much better than before that race as well which is encouraging. He acts on a variety of ground, has had the experience of three runs, and also a decent enough draw in 5. I think he is certainly overpriced anyway.

The big race of day 1 is the Lennox stakes. Dutch Connection was 2nd here last year in this race, finding only Toormore too good that day. No doubt that the 7 furlong trip around this unique track suit this horse down to the ground and he is also ridden by a jockey in James McDonald who is probably the jockey in form in England at the moment. Dutch Connection has been running well all season over a mile, which is not his trip, and this return to 7f will really suit. Buckstay could run well at a price on his step up from handicap company but for a solid outright win bet Dutch Connection is the one in the Lennox Stakes.

Goodwood has it's fair share of staying races and on day 1 we have the Summer Stakes over 1 mile 6 furlongs in which I quite like Fun Mac from the Hughie Morrison yard. The yard are going pretty well of late and both trainer and jockey have had winners here. Fun Mac has himself finished 2nd over this course over this distance, is only up 1 lbs from that race and this firmer ground should be more ideal for him. Only 5 years old, he should still have improvement to come for a stayer and I'd be hopeful he can hit the frame.

Finally on day 1 I want to be with a trainer in red hot form in Clive Cox in the 4.55, a maiden over 6 furlongs, where Harry Angel sets the undoubted standard to aim at in the race after just being denied at Ascot first time up. He was running on really well that day, just failing to catch a 2nd time up Godolphin horse, and the step up in trip should also suit. After riding a big race winner in France at the weekend, Adam Kirby will be full of confidence and Harry Angel can go one better here.

Thanks for reading and I'll be back on Wednesday

The final bet-a-day for Euro 2016

Right. After 22 days we are onto a figure of -8.17 units, and heading into the final of Euro 2016 at least I know what I have to shoot for to secure a profit for the tournament. And onto the final we go.

Day 23 - Portugal vs France

Well, pre tournament France were the favourites to lift the trophy but Portugal were quite an un-fancied 20/1 or thereabouts poke. Despite winning just the 1 game in 90 minutes, the Portuguese team, captained by C.Ronaldo, or CR7 as he is more commonly known, have made it through the easier side of the draw and take their place alongside the host nation France. And it is the host nation I fully expect to win this game.

France were very impressive in the 2nd half of the Germany game in their semi-final, Antoine Griezmann thriving in a more central role as the French defeated Germany 2-0. Portugal also won their game against Wales 2-0, with talisman Ronaldo scoring with a towering header, but I cannot see them having enough to overcome France with a nation behind them.

But because I need a big priced winner to finish in profit I'm going to put up a correct score bet. As I say I've been very impressed with France recently in attack, Griezmann moving more central has been key to that in my opinion, and I think they will score a few here. However, I don't want to rule out a Ronaldo free kick or something, even after 50-odd consecutive failed attempts, therefore the bet here is France 3-1 Portugal at a whopping 22/1.

France 3-1 Portugal 22/1

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 22

Day 22 - France vs Germany

The French will come into this semi-final game with confidence sky high. They absolutely destroyed Iceland, getting a load of goals in the process, and they really do have the Nation behind them. Giroud, Griezmann,, Pogba and Payet all scored and they must believe they can score again.
Germany overcame Italy on penalties in the quarter-finals, no mean feat, but they suffered a fair few injuries in the process. Gomes is out for the tournament and Khedira and Schweinsteiger are doubts for this game, all blows Low could do without in this big semi final clash against the home nation.

France, while they are incredible in attack, are also vulnerable defensively; Iceland scored against them, Ireland did in the game before that and the Germans will be confident they can breach Les Bleus defence. However, having already scored 11 goals this tournament, France will be confident they can get on the scoresheet and this is where I see the bet coming.

With the attacking talent both teams possess and this being the last knockout game before the final both teams will be going at it. And when one team bags, the other will have to attack even more, which has already seen both teams score in all 4 quarter final games. In this game I'm going for over 3.5 goals at 11/4. Whilst over 2.5 is obviously a safer option the blog is desperately clawing it's way towards overall profit, or more likely digging a bigger hole, but with the attacking talent on show I'm hoping for a seriously entertaining game

Day 22 - Over 3.5 goals 11/4

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 21

Unbelievable. Just was we saw France do what England couldn't and tear Iceland to shreds Griezmann did the business and got himself onto the score sheet, providing us with another winner, this one at 17/10. That takes the blog onto -6.17 and if I can have a few bigger winners we might even reach profit for the tournament. Na, I doubt it as well but we may as well dream...


Day 21 - Portugal vs Wales

Well, I must admit before the tournament I did not have Wales down as semi-finalists. However, fair play to Chris Coleman and his team as they have shown what a good morale, team spirit and a canny bit of talent can do with hard work and determination. After they demolished Belgium in the quarter finals they face a Portuguese side yet to win a game in 90 minutes. And I really like the Welsh's chances of progression to the Euro 2016 final here.

The thing is Aaron Ramsey is ruled out, as is Ben Davies, through suspension and they are two massive losses to this team. Ramsey has arguably been one of the players of the tournament and whoever replaces him will have huge shoes to fill; probably either Andy King or Jonny Williams. Williams was actually pretty decent when coming off the bench against Northern Ireland 2 games ago. However, what ever happens its safe to say this will be billed as Ronaldo vs Bale. And if this is actually the case, Wales win as Bale has been very good so far, Ronaldo far less so. But we all know football is a team game...

And this is why I love the Welsh. You just have to see the celebrations after their win over Belgium to see just how good their team-spirit is, how they work for each other and how they are a closely knit side. They are improving every match, and against Belgium they were sensational. I think at 10/3 for the win in 90 minutes they are a huge price and they are the bet of day 21

Wales to win 10/3

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 20

Unbelievable...on day 19 we won a bet! Both teams scored in Germany vs Italy and the blog moves on to -7.87. Wow, inspirational stuff. Whilst I send a postcard to Mother to mark this day, day 20 thoughts are below

Day 20 - France vs Iceland

Well many thought this match on Sunday evening would be France vs England, but Iceland put paid to that as they frankly outperformed England and beat them 2-1 in the round of 16, once again knocking England out at the first knockout stage of International football. France looked up against it at half-time against Ireland, 1-0 down and struggling with the physical game Ireland were playing, but as Ireland tired in the 2nd half and France changed formation slightly Griezmann was able to thrive in his central role and score twice, leading to the progression of the host nation.

I fancy Iceland will attempt to play in a similar manner to Ireland in the first half, but if France are able to start the game in the way they finished against Ireland I think they will have too much for Iceland in the end. Griezmann was the difference in France's last game and I hope that he will be played in a more central role here, as he was in that 2nd half, as the French are a far more impressive team when this happens. And if it does I really fancy Griezmann to notch, and thus at 17/10 anytime goalscorer, he is the play on day 20

Day 20 -Griezmann to score anytime 17/10

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 19

Oh my days. Turmoil in the bet-a-day challenge; I'm doubting if I'm the man to lead this blog forward, I doubt I'll be voted in for a future tournament and as I look at the profit/loss (-9.17) we come to the hardest game of the quarter-finals to call. Hardly bodes well...

Day 19 - Germany vs Italy

What a humdinger of a game we look set for here. Germany, yet to concede and supreme when brushing Slovakia aside in the round of 16 vs Italy, outsiders initially for Euro glory but a team that is more than the sum of their parts as proved when storming past Spain last time out. This looks set to be an absolutely thrilling match and is the quarter final I am most looking forward too!

Now to find a bet in the game; a bit more tricky. I've been very impressed with Germany thus far but quotes of 5/4 to win this in 90 minutes do seem skinny considering just how impressive Italy have been when thrashing Belgium and overcoming Spain with surprising ease. The draw is priced at 2/1 and Italy outsiders for the 90 minute win at 3/1. If pushed I'd have to go for Germany to win, they have really impressed me so far, but I wouldn't be confident.

Therefore, for the bet in this game I'm going for both teams to score at 13/10. Germany come into the game after hitting 3 past Slovakia, even missing a penalty in that game, whereas Italy put 2 past Spain and that could have been many more if it wasn't for the superb performance by De Gea in goal for Spain. Add into the mix that Italy are (probably) missing De Rossi with injury and Motta through suspension and I think we can definitely get a few goals here. I like this bet in knockout football as if one team scores the others are forced to attack and I'm hoping that both teams can notch here.

Day 19 - Both teams to score 13/10

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 17

-7.17. The abject performance of the blog goes on, however even this isn't as abject as England were against Iceland. Out-battled, out-thought and thoroughly outplayed, you can't even argue they were unlucky losers. And the same sentiments can be applied to the blog's selections over this performance unfortunately but we go on, in the hunt for that elusive winner...

Day 17 - Poland vs Portugal

For the first 45 minutes of their round of 16 match Poland were very good, for the 2nd 45 they were not. However, they progressed on penalties and face a Portugal side who were also fairly poor but who are also, unlike England, still in the tournament. Portugal haven't actually won a game this Euro's yet therefore their price of 13/10 doesn't really appeal. What I do like is Poland and under 2.5 goals at a whopping 11/2. Poland have only conceded once this tournament, and have managed an impressive, and arguably unlucky, draw against Germany already, whilst they have beaten both the Ukraine and Northern Ireland. Both wins have come by a single goal, and as mentioned they have only let in 1 goal over 4 games thus far. Therefore I think Poland to win and under 2.5 goals in the game at 11/2 is a good bet here.

Poland and under 2.5 goals @ 11/2

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 18

-8.17 now. Day 17 saw Poland go ahead inside 2 minutes, something I didn't want for my bet, and whilst I thought I would lose because we would get too many goals we actually lost because Poland couldn't see the game out and ended up going out on pens. Still, head up, I won't do a Boris and make a load of recommendations before bailing on the blog when it all goes wrong...no we're moving on to day 18.

Day 18 - Wales vs Belgium

Well the round of 16 saw Belgium finally arrive at this tournament in no uncertain terms as they tore apart a Hungary side who seemed intent on defending on the half-way line. Not the wisest move against the pace that Belgium possess but with their confidence boosted, Hazard seemingly fresh as a daisy after his season off and the squad possessing attacking talent that is the envy of every team in this tournament I really fancy Belgium here.
Wales have done very well so far but I think Belgium are undoubtably the best team they have come across so far and this could be where their tournament ends. With Bale in the team you can always give the Welsh a chance of grabbing a goal, but I think Belgium win here. Because I don't want to rule out a Welsh goal I'm going for Belgium to win and over 2.5 goals at 12/5, allowing for the possibility of Belgium running riot here.

Belgium to win and over 2.5 goals - 12/5

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 16

Well, after I called Belgium vs Hungary completely wrong, hardly surprising, we move deeper into the red and onto a figure of -6.17. Maybe like Lionel Messi I should just call it quits after a few too many losses? I certainly don't think it could be argued that I'd be quitting too soon...

Day 16

Two excellent games today; Italy vs Spain for the excitement that a clash between two heavyweights of International football and England vs Iceland because, well, its England.
In the first game I think this has draw written all over it; will Spain be able to break down a tough Italian defence? And will Italy be able to get the ball enough to try and launch a counter or two on the Spain goal? An intriguing match and one I don't see too many goals in, if I were to have a bet I'd go for something like under 2.5 goals but 4/9 is no price. Under 1.5 is 11/8, more attractive but I'll not be betting here.
In the match involving Roy's Boys, England *should* have far too much for Iceland but I think they will find it quite hard to break them down and certainly don't see them running away with it. They struggled to break down Slovakia when they sat deep and I can see this match progressing the same way. England to win to nil, at 11/10 is my favourite bet here and the one for day 16.

Day 16 - England to win to nil, 11/10

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 15

Well day 14 didn't work, the goalscorer treble fell at the first hurdle in fact, and we move onto -5.17 Units. I did read today that the stock markets were beginning to recover after Friday's Brexit result, I can only hope the same happens to this blog.

Day 15 - Hungary vs Belgium

Ok, I've given up on the big priced shots for now. I've been impressed by Hungary this tournament and they are playing well and playing with real passion. After holding Portugal to a high scoring draw I think they are good value in the double chance market to either win or draw this knockout match after 90 minutes at 5/4. The players seem to have really gelled as a team, not something you can say about the Belgians who definitely seem to be less than the sum of their parts so far. Even though they beat Ireland and Sweden I think they may find the teamwork and probably confidence of this Hungary team difficult to overcome, hence the Hungary or draw vote.

Day 15 - Hungary or Draw at 5/4

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 14

Running total after Belgium only won at full time, not half time -4.17 units

We're out of Europe sadly, not England football team but the country as a whole, and also more happily the group stages and into the knockout of Euro 2016; with this I hope we will see some more attacking football. Because of the expansion in terms of number of teams competing, the group stage saw 3 teams qualify from most groups and this led to teams knowing that often a draw would be a good result in terms of their qualification. However, now we get to the knockout we are going to get a winner in each and every game, albeit it may take penalties to decide who progresses, and I think we will get a more attacking brand of football on offer. Penalties are a bit of a lottery, certainly England fans will not want to be relying on the dreaded spot kicks to decide their progression, and I think teams will want to avoid this if possible.

With this in mind let's progress to day 14, the first day of knockout football.

Day 14 - Goalscorer Treble

For day 14 we have three ties to choose from; Switzerland vs Poland, Wales vs Northern Ireland and Croatia vs Portugal. And it's a player from each of the three goals that I'm going to combine into a goalscorer treble for day 14's bet.

In Switzerland vs Poland I'm choosing Milik to score, he seems to be getting plenty of chances because of the attention teams are giving to his strike partner, Robert Lewandowski, and at 14/5 seems a generous price to notch.
From Wales vs Northern Ireland I'm going for the obvious; Gareth Bale. Bale has scored in each of the three games thus has a real chance of getting the Golden Boot award for top goalscorer, will be on set-pieces and is in cracking form, high on confidence. 29/20 for him.
And the final game, well it's the man who scored twice in the last game after coming under some heavy criticism for his performances prior to that; Cristiano Ronaldo. On his day he is the world's best player and Portugal will need him to be firing if they are to have any chance of progressing. And it's not like Ronaldo to miss a chance to grab the limelight, at 13/10 he completes the treble.

Day 14 - Milik, Bale and Ronaldo to score anytime @ 20.41/1 1 unit

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 13

A welcome winner for us on day 12 as Poland overcome the Ukraine by a goal to nil and we're on to -3.17 units. Groups E and F finish today and we're heading to group E for today's best bet

Day 13 - Sweden vs Belgium

Sweden have been one of the worst teams I think so far, they have one player in Zlatan and they just can't get the ball to him enough for him to even make a difference. I am definitely looking to oppose them here with a Belgium team who, whilst disappointing many in their opening group game against Italy, come here off the back of a comfortable 3-0 win over The Republic of Ireland. They sit 2nd in the group and I think they will cement that position with a win over Sweden, and the price of 5/6 represents excellent value. I did look at Belgium in the half time/full time market, and was pleasantly surprised to see that it was priced up at around 2/1. And then the greedy part of my got excited.

I think Belgium may come out and try and secure a good lead by half-time so that they can rotate players in the 2nd half. And because I could really use a good winner to boost the bank balance the bet for me is Belgium/Belgium in the half time/full time market

Day 13 - Belgium/Belgium half time/full time, 2/1 (Coral)

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 12

Ouch, -4.17 units for us now after the snore fest of England Slovakia yesterday.
A plethora of games for us on day 12, with the culmination of groups C and D, and plenty to play for in both groups. Germany, Poland and Northern Ireland could all progress into the knockout stages in group C.

Day 12 - Ukraine vs Poland

Poland have been impressive to date, managing to gain 4 points (a win against Northern Ireland and a draw with Germany), whereas Ukraine are yet to gain a point, having lost to both Germany and Northern Ireland. Therefore, I think Poland represent great value at even money to win this game and progress from Group 7. Ukraine are guaranteed to finish bottom of this group, whereas Poland could actually still finish top with a win here and Germany not winning in the other game, so they should be bang up for this compared to Ukraine. They have shown much more in the tournament to date and see no reason why they will not be able to overcome a poor Ukraine side

 Day 12 - Poland to win 1 unit even money 

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 10

Well when Ronaldo misses a penalty and has a header ruled out for offside you know it isn't your night, and that is what happened for us on day 9 as Portugal were held to a 0-0 by Austria. -2.17 units for us now and onto the final round of group matches


Day 10 Romania vs Albania

Day 10 sees the final round of group games in group A, currently topped by France, then the Swiss, with Romania on 1 point in third place and Albania propping up the group, yet to gain a point. A draw in the game between France and Switzerland would see both progress in the top 2 positions, whilst Romania retain a hope of reaching the knockout, either by pipping the Swiss to 2nd place or by becoming a third placed qualifier.

Therefore the team with the most to play for in the final set of group games in the Romanians, and to date they have actually looked fairly useful. They only narrowly went down to the French and then gained a creditable draw against the Swiss, so I think they will be able to overcome Albania and that leads me to the bet for day 10, Romania to win at a widely available 6/5.

Day 10, Romania to win, 1 unit (6/5)

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 11

It's all gone downhill for us after the Croatian collapse and sooner or later they might threaten to kick me out of Euro 2016. -3.17 units for us now and onto the final round of group B matches

Day 11 England vs Slovakia

Well both these sides go into the final group game in contention to top the group. England come into the game off the back of a last gasp 2-1 victory over Wales whilst Slovakia were aided by a Hamsik masterclass as they brushed aside Russia 2 goals to nil. England sit top of the group on 4 points, whilst Slovakia have 3. What I'm certain of is both sides will be going to win this game.

England, I expect, will make changes to the starting 11 that we have seen so far, perhaps looking a bit more like the 2nd half team we saw last time out who managed to net twice and looked pretty threatening. Add to that the attacking flair Slovakia possess, basically in the shape of Hamsik, and the fact both teams will be eager to win this and I think the best bet is both teams to score at 11/10, pretty widely available.

As I've said, both teams will be going for the win here and if one team can get the first goal the other will then be forced to go more attacking in the quest to find an equaliser. We have players on the pitch who can score and neither defence is the most sound you will see this tournament. Goals in the play

Both teams to score, England vs Slovakia, 1 Unit (11/10)

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 9

Day 8 was a winner for us , back to back winners was previously unheard of for the blog! I put up a nice win double, Italy and Croatia, and we're onto a figure of 3.36 units. Profit! Mental. And it's onto day 9 we go

........................

oh wait, scrap all that. That'll teach me to start writing the blog as the team I back go into a 2-0 lead as Croatia managed to chuck away their lead and only draw with the Czech Republic. So it's actually another losing bet, very annoying! And the actual figure is -1.17 units, not fair at all. The only thing that remains constant is that we are off onto the day 9 preview.

Day 9 Portugal vs Austria

Neither of these two teams impressed in the opening round, Portugal only managing a disappointing draw against Iceland whilst Austria were even worse, going down by 2 goals to nil to Hungary, many pundit's tip to finish bottom of this group. And for the bet of day 9, I'm backing Portugal to come out and improve massively against an Austrian team who will not be able to sit in a defend, due to their awful opening game result. They need the points if there are to harbour any hopes of going into the knockout stages and this will play into the hands of the Portuguese. There should be space for the attacking talent Portugal possess to exploit, and I can see Portugal getting the three points here.

Day 9 - Portugal to Win evens , 1 unit

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 7

Day 6 was another loser, say no more, and we're onto a figure of -1.42 units. Onwards, and hopefully upwards!

Day 7 - England vs Wales

Well day seven and I have to go to the big crunch match, England vs Wales. The Welsh come into this game on the back of a 2-1 victory over Slovakia whereas England could only manage a 1-1 draw with Russia, despite playing fairly well I thought. The thing that caught my attention from those games was goals! Neither team look the strongest defensively whereas with the likes of Bale, Kane, Rooney and Ramsey on the pitch attacking football and goals must be likely!
I'm really unsure on the actual result of this game and if pressed I'd probably sit on the fence with a draw. However, for day 7's bet I'm taking the result out of the equation and opting for both teams to score at a tasty odds against price of 5/4 (Betfair).

Day 7 Both Teams to Score England vs Wales 1 unit 5/4

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 8

Day 7 was a winner for us and Roy's Boys! I put up BTTS in England vs Wales which landed at odds of 5/4 and we're onto a figure of -0.17 units. Onwards, and hopefully upwards towards a profit!
Day 8

One thing that shocked me, and the majority of punters judged on their movement in the outright market, was just how good Italy were against Belgium, the supposed 2nd best team in the world. Italy gave us a lesson in tournament football, winning 2-0 and looking excellent. Their opponents on Friday, Sweden, laboured to a 1-1 draw with Ireland in their opening fixture and I think the 5/6 available on Italy to beat the Swedes rates as a cracking bit of value.

However, another team to impress in the opening round of fixtures was Croatia, who comfortably dispatched Turkey 1-0 but were arguably value for more. The Czech Republic played with credit when holding Spain for 99% of their game, only to concede a last minute goal and go down 1-0. Losing that game means the Czech's will have to attack a bit more here, as while a 0-0 draw would have rated a sensational result against Spain 1 point will simply not be enough now for them. I think Croatia are well equipped to overcome the Czech and at 10/11 I want a bit of that value.

Therefore the bet for day 8 is a nice win double, combining Italy at 5/6 and Croatia at 10/11, coming in just over 5/2 (a £1 stake returns 3.53)

Day 8 - Italy and Croatia win double 3.53

One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 6

Day 5 was a loser, say no more, and we're onto a figure of -0.42 units. Onwards, and hopefully upwards!

Day 6 France vs Albania

We're onto the second round of group games and have now seen all the teams play once so we've a bit of an idea of how each Nation are playing. From their first match I think I can safely say France will be quite exciting going forward but shake at the back, while I was impressed with Albania who I thought were unlucky against the Swiss, maybe worth a point despite playing a deal of the game with ten men. This brings me to my day six bet which is France to win and both teams to score at a tasty 16/5. As I say I thought France were shaky at the back while Albania were unlucky not to bag against the Swiss and if they can keep 11 men on the pitch should be capable of scoring here. I fully expect France to overcome the Albanian by full time but think this is a great value bet, after all Albania did manage to score against the likes of Portugal in qualifying


Day 6 - France to win and BTTS 1 unit (16/5)

One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 5

Day 4 saw an excellent (makes a change) day for the blog as everything we discussed about Spain winning to nil, and with few goals in the game, came in. Unfortunately for the blog I only went with the conservative option of Spain to win to nil at 6/5, but it was a winner so I can't complain and it takes us to an overall figure of +0.58 Units. Onto day 5 we go

Day 5

Well for day 5 I'm going to definitely put up Austria to beat Hungary at a price of 3/4 but I'm going to also make it a double by combining it with a Portugal win over Iceland (4/7) for a combined double of 1.75/1, or 2.75 for those working in decimal odds. Both Austria and Portugal enjoyed excellent qualification for the tournament, Austria winning 9/10 games and Portugal 8/10, and I expect that winning form to be continued here. I think Hungary will be awful, I don't see them getting a point in their group, which is why I think Austria are such a good bet, even at odds on. And Portugal...well just Cristiano Ronaldo.



Day 5 Win Double - Austria and Portugal 1 unit (1.75/1)

Royal Ascot Day 1 - The Best Day's Flat Racing of the Year

Day 1 of Royal Ascot is always an absolute cracker. Group 1 after Group 1 and the quality goes right through the day. It really is unmissable and even as a jumps fan mainly I can still get properly excited about it. And it helps when you have a few views on the races which I do, so here are my three main fancies for a fantastic day of flat racing.

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes

I love Ger Lyon's Endless Drama for this race. He is a big, no huge, horse so will definitely have needed and come on for his re-appearance run in the Lockinge stakes the last day. He has a really high cruising speed and this test will suit him down to the ground, as will the softer going. Both the trainer and the rider Colin Keane love him and for good reason!

Colin Keane on Endless Drama:

“Endless Drama is just different gravy to anything else we have at home”

“He’s the best horse I’ve ever sat on”

“A horse like Brendan Bracken, who is a proper horse and a Group 3 winner, is not even good enough to lead him in canters”

"I’d be very confident of beating Belardo this time. We finished ahead of him in the Irish Guineas last year but he had 2 runs under his belt before the Lockinge and we were having our first run for over a year”

“It looks a wide-open race but our fella is a monster – I’m just praying they get a bit of rain”

“Endless Drama is just different class. He’s a monster”

Extremely positive from the jockey who is riding plenty of winners and a jockey I really like. Endless Drama has some very good form in the book already, his 2nd place in the Irish Guineas behind Gleneagles probably the standout, and I think there is loads more to come. He has been cut massively in the market after the recent rain but even at 8/1 currently available on Sunday evening this horse rates an absolutely cracking bet for the Queen Anne where one would imagine Tepin, market leader, will be vulnerable on softer ground. I can see him turning the form round with Belardo, who had the benefit of a recent run in the Lockinge,  and quite frankly I love his price.

Endless Drama going down narrowly to Gleneagles in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

3.05 Coventry Stakes

Even though this race is only a Group 2 it is still one of the best races of the day, bring together some of the best 2 year old horses around this year. And after the recent rain the one I fancy the most is Caravaggio for the formidable duo of Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore. This horse is unbeaten in his 2 races to day, beating Lundy, who reopposes here, on debut and then running a stunning race the last day at The Curragh, where he routed the field in a Listed race and produced a stunning time-figure to boot. This horse can run, and run quickly! He is also proven on soft ground, something that will prove crucial in this race against young, inexperienced horses and I can't see the step up in trip being an issue looking at his pedigree. He will probably go off market leader but I really like him and think he has a great chance and a great bet at around 2/1.

5.00 Ascot Stakes

Jennie's Jewel is the bet here and I absolutely love this one. Will adore the soft ground that we will be getting at Ascot with all the rain about, all her form is on soft and heavy ground so she will be in her absolute element. Just watch her run the last day off a ten pound lower mark and tell me she isn't still well handicapped even off this higher mark; she absolutely laughed at her rivals that day. her mark of 93, for me, is so workable given she ran a cracker over hurdles at Punchestown off a mark of 137 (2nd to One Track Mind in a Grade 1, beating the likes of Alpha Des Obeaux and Diamond King) and can't jump! Take the hurdles away and she is a much better horse, her stamina is assured in my opinion having won over 3 miles over hurdles and she is clearly in good heart. I love this horse in this race and a price of 10/1 currently available at the time of writing (Sunday evening)

The lovely horse Jennies Jewel

One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 4

Day 3 was another losing bet, taking my record to -1.62 Units so far and it may be best for your bank balance if you stop reading now. If you want to find a bet to avoid or even lay on the exchange then read on...

Day 4 - Spain vs Czech Republic

This looks one of the more tricky days which doesn't bode too well given my record thus far. I think Spain will beat the Czech Republic but they are a short enough price for the outright win and this has led me to look into a way of combining a Spanish win with goals to get a better price.

Looking back to the Spanish record in qualification leads me to a cracking (I think) bet. Spain only conceded three times in their qualification for this tournament; their last 8 games then won to nil. The Spanish are excellent at keeping the ball and making their opponents chase it, and as I'm sure Andy Townsend will tell us you need the ball if you are to score.

There are various ways you could play this; Spain to win to nil (6/5) , Spain and under 2.5 goals (11/5), Spain and under 1.5 goals (5/1) or a variation of that bet.

If you fancy Spain to win 1-0 or 2-0 then Spain and under 2.5 goals is the bet for you,.The more adventurous Spain and under 1.5 goals is effectively a bet on 1-0 Spain whilst Spain to win to nil allows for the prospect of Spain running wild. Looking at their qualification record they won 1-0 or 2-0 five times, the other 4 wins being by larger margins than 2 goals.

I'm going to play it safe and hopefully secure a win by going for Spain to win to nil

Day 4 - Spain to win to nil 1 unit (6/5)

One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 3

Day 2 saw the first winning bet for the blog, as both teams notched in Wales vs Slovakia at 11/8, returning 2.38 units on a 1 unit stake and dragging us 0.38 units in profit. However, I need to take a unit off that for my 0.5 unit stake on both Cahill and Smalling to score first, leaving the running total at -0.62 units

Day 3 - Turkey vs Croatia

Another day, another both teams to score bet. This time it's in the Turkey vs Croatia game where I think both teams will find the net.
Croatia have some fine midfield talent in Modric and Rakitic who can ensure that Manzukic up front receives plenty of service. They come in here fresh from putting 10 (ten) goals past San Marino in a friendly and will be fairly high on confidence that they can at the very least get out of this group.
Turkey played England recently in a friendly and looked quite threatening going forward. They have scored in their last 5 games, in 3 of those both teams have scored, and I think they will know they have to score if they are to get anything out of this game realistically. In qualifying they scored past the likes of The Netherlands, Czech Republic and Iceland so I feel they are capable of finding the net here

Day 3 recommended bet - Both teams to Score 11/10 (Paddy Power)

A look at Royal Ascot - 2 horses on the opening 2 days

With Royal Ascot just over the horizon (we've got to get through Sunday evening first) and the ground now almost certainly set to be on the soft side of good with the recent rain I thought I'd just write a little about two of the horses I fancy most for the Royal feast of racing

Queen Anne - Endless Drama

I love Ger Lyon's Endless Drama for this race. He is a big, no huge, horse so will definitely have needed and come on for his re-appearance run in the Lockinge stakes the last day. He has a really high cruising speed and this test will suit him down to the ground, as will the softer going. Both the trainer and the rider Colin Keane love him and for good reason!

Colin Keane on Endless Drama:

“Endless Drama is just different gravy to anything else we have at home”

“He’s the best horse I’ve ever sat on”

“A horse like Brendan Bracken, who is a proper horse and a Group 3 winner, is not even good enough to lead him in canters”

"I’d be very confident of beating Belardo this time. We finished ahead of him in the Irish Guineas last year but he had 2 runs under his belt before the Lockinge and we were having our first run for over a year”

“It looks a wide-open race but our fella is a monster – I’m just praying they get a bit of rain”

“Endless Drama is just different class. He’s a monster”

Extremely positive from the jockey who is riding plenty of winners and a jockey I really like. Endless Drama has some very good form in the book already, his 2nd place in the Irish Guineas behind Gleneagles probably the standout, and I think there is loads more to come. At 10/1 with Bet365 this horse rates an absolutely cracking bet for the Queen Anne where one would imagine Tepin, market leader, will be vulnerable on softer ground. I can see him turning the form round with Belardo, who had the benefit of a recent run in the Lockinge,  and quite frankly I love his price.

Endless Drama going down narrowly to Gleneagles in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

Duke of Cambridge - Usherette

An Andre Fabre filly must always be high on anyone's shortlist when looking at a race and in Usherette he has a very special horse. This filly came over here for the Dehlia stakes at Newmarket in May and absolutely routed a good field, leaving the likes of Amazing Maria, Jazzi Top and Arabian Queen in her wake as she romped to victory. That race was her comeback race for the season and one would imagine she will come on for that and be even better this time.

The beautiful Usherette at Newmarket

Usherette has raced 5 times in her career to date, winning 4 of those races, and is proven on soft and good ground so we need not worry about ground conditions on Wednesday. Andre Fabre absolutely loves this horse; in a recent press day ahead of the Royal meeting John Ferguson, Godolphin Chief Executive, has this to say

"I love talking to Andre Fabre about this filly," said Ferguson. "He gets the biggest smile on his face when talking about Usherette [and] he's an extraordinary judge."

The trainer is excited, the owners are excited and I am excited by Usherette. She will carry a penalty on Wednesday but that field she beat was pretty good at Newmarket, her form stacks up against her chief rivals (for example she beat Irish Rookie far more easily than Devonshire did) and everything looks set for her to add another Group 2 race to her roster.

One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 2

Day 1 was a loser, annoyingly Patrice Evra gave away a stupid penalty and Romania managed to bag a goal. Perhaps 35 years young is not the prime year of a footballer's career. Still, Payet got them out of a hole in the latter stages of the game and lit up the game with an early contender for goal of the tournament. Let's hope things can improve for this blog as well, maybe a bit of the Payet magic will rub off on us.

Running total - 1 Unit

Day 2 - Wales vs Slovakia

Day 2 and I'm going for goals; I think both teams will come into this game targeting this match as a possible 3 points in their quest to finish 2nd in the group and qualify for the knockout stages of the tournament. 

Wales will be relying on Gareth Bale for their goals and with him in the team they have a constant goal threat. However, he is supported by some capable players, the likes of Joe Allen, possibly Joe Ledley and Aaron Ramsay and will surely be capable of getting on the scoresheet.
Slovakia like a few goals in their games; both teams have scored in 6 out of Slovakia's last 8 games. They are a strong unit as proved by their 3-1 friendly win over Germany in the build up to this tournament and have some formidable players, most notably Hamsik who scored in the game against the Germans. 
I think with both teams keen to get off to a good start in the group we will get at least a goal each for Wales and Slovakia

Bet 2 - Both Teams to Score - 11/8 (Bet365) 1 Unit

Edit - England Bet added!

I realised I couldn't really neglect the England match in my preview so I'll cheat a bit and add in an extra bet for the days England are playing if I haven't recommended a bet in that match. After all, I lack all discipline in my horse racing betting so why change the habit of a lifetime!
So for the opening game of England's Euro campaign they face a Russian side who would pose a serious threat but for the face their midfield has been decimated by injuries.  Igor Denisov is one of five notable absentees from their squad, joining Alan Dzagoev, Denis Cheryshev, Yuri Zhirkov and Oleg Kuzmin. Because of this I think Russia will now aim to frustrate, and this England side are fairly easily frustrated. They will be hard to break down and I think we may have to rely on a set piece for the opening game for England. Therefore I'm going with a fairly outlandish first goalscorer bet. Both Chris Smalling and Gary Cahill are available at big odds, 33/1 and 40/1, to open the scoring so I suggest 0.5 points on both of these players.

Bet 3 - Chris Smalling First Goalscorer 0.5 points 33/1 Bet365
         - Gary Cahill First Goalscorer 0.5 points 40/1 Betbright

One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 1

So for the next few weeks I'm going to try and have a bet a day throughout the Euro 2016 tournament in France, starting today, and see if I can return a profit...I'll be keeping a running total and using oddschecker to get the best price, so off we go with day 1

Day 1 - France vs Romania

I fully expect Romania to try and keep things tight, frustrating the French and really trying to get a draw here. And they do have previous, they have managed away draws with Hungary, Northern Ireland and best of all Italy in the last year or so, so their defence must be respected. However, the French look very formidable opponents going forward, far better than the teams previously mentioned, and I think will be able to make the breakthrough eventually. I don't expect a barrel load of goals but do think France will get off to a winning start. Therefore the recommended bet is a France win and under 2.5 goals in the game.

Bet 1 - France to win and under 2.5 goals Odds - 9/5 (Stan James) 1 Unit

The Epsom Derby - 4th June 2016

On Saturday at Epsom Downs Racecourse we will have the richest ever running of the Derby, thanks mainly to the number of supplemented runners in this year's renewal. This is due to the open nature the Derby had to it, with no real standout performer on from thus far.

The two at the top of the market, US Army Ranger and Wings of Desire, well....US Army Ranger was extremely lucky to win at Chester the last day and Wings of Desire himself had to be supplemented after being withdrawn by the trainer at an earlier stage! If you fancy either of these you can get around 4/1. For me US Army Ranger may be a little immature for a race of this nature but could be the best horse in time. Wings of Desire would be the one of the two I favour at the head of the market, he is already proven over the trip and won the best Derby trial in the Dante at York (beating Deauville in the process who reposes). However, against both of these is that neither raced at two, both made debuts this year, and while horses have overcome this (Ruler of the World an example from the O'Brien yard) it is a big ask as it requires a horse to learn a lot in a short space of time. Epsom is a daunting arena, the atmosphere cannot be underestimated, and this potential lack of experience may be a slight negative.

2015 Derby winner Golden Horn

Looking around the market at a few others at short prices and I am shocked at quite how short Ulysses is. For sure, he represents top connections that cannot be underestimated but this horse's form, winning a maiden so far, do not merit a price of 7/1 for the Derby! He is rated 98, a full 16lbs lower than Wings of Desire, on his form in the book so it seems crackers to me that he can be so short. Not for me at that price.

I'm not massively clued up on my French form but from what I've read the form of Cloth of Stars isn't actually that good and he is the price he is based on the fact he is trained by Andre Fabre, winner of course with Pour Moi, also ridden by Mickael Barzalona. Algometer will need the rain to come again for him to have a chance and for Harzand the same statement applies.

Shogun has a lot of experience but I'd be disappointed if he is good enough to win a Derby and looks held by a few of these on form and is a more likely place candidate. If I were to bet one of the O'Brien contingent it would be Port Douglas who really should have beat the favourite US Army Ranger last time out but for a very tender ride! The trip should be within his compass, he handled Chester and the tight turns at that track perfectly well and good and soft ground come alike - he handles both fine. At current price of 12/1 he looks the most backable of the O'Brien lot to me.

I'll get around to the one I do like and that comes in the shape of Moonlight Magic for Jim Bolger. I'd like the yard to be in better form but he is having a few winners and Moonlight magic has some excellent form, most notably his win last time out in the Derrinstown, a notable trial race. Forgive his flop the time before when thrashed by Harzand, the ground was far too soft that day, and Moonlight Magic is unbeaten on decent ground. He stays a 10f trip no problem, I see no reason why he won't handle this extra 2 furlongs, and Kevin Manning has become very experienced on top of this one. Bolger will know what it takes to win the race after he trained New Approach to victory in 2008 and he seems certain this horse will get the trip. The wise trainer has had this to say 

"I rate him as a good Derby prospect and I would not swap him for anything else in the race.

"He has the looks, the demeanour, the balance and temperament to go with his pedigree. He is a beautifully-balanced horse so he should handle Epsom well. I thought when he won the Derrinstown he was as good a Derrinstown winner as St Jovite. I could not be any happier than I am with him at the moment. He is very straightforward and is a lovely horse to work with. There are no holes in this fellow."

Some very taking quotes from Jim! As I say, ignore his flop in the heavy ground and he would be a fair few points shorter for this race. He rates my main selection at a nice enough 12/1

Derby selection Moonlight Magic

The Investec Oaks - 3rd June 2016

In just a few days time we will be treated to the Oaks and Derby, two absolutely brilliant races and in the Derby potentially the greatest flat race of them all. Run over 1 mile 4 furlongs around the tricky Epsom Downs racecourse, with it's notorious left hand turn and undulating nature making it a stern test for many a horse. The Oaks comes first, on Friday afternoon, so I'll turn my thoughts to this race first.

The market for the Oaks is headed by Minding, Aidan O'Brien's filly who comes here after winning the English 1,000 Guineas but being beaten in the Irish version on much softer ground. Further cause for concern for backers of this evens favourite come in the shape of the sinus problem encountered by the filly after she bumped her head before the race. She probably is the best of these fillies, certainly at a mile trip, and that defeat in Ireland still rates as very good form - the Irish Handicapper rated Jet Setting only 1lbs lower than the winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas, indicating with mares allowances Jet Setting would have pulverized that field. However, the step up in trip 4 furlongs, the tough race she had the last day and the fact her pedigree doesn't scream 1 mile 4 furlongs at you on softish ground lead me to look elsewhere.

Hot favourite Minding

Architecture is the most interesting one for me representing the yard of Hugo Palmer at 10/1. The trainer must be respected and he handled Covert Love with expert gloves so clearly can get his fillies to peak when he wants - lucky man. Went down a neck to Seventh Heaven, another Aidan O'Brien horse, in an Oaks trial at Lingfield and also was present at the Breakfast with the Stars event here so she should handle the track and has the magician Frankie Dettori on top. The winner at Lingfield was given an expert ride by Ryan Moore, who actually said she didn't handle that track, which gives me hope Architecture can turn the form around.

The Lingfield trial in which Architecture finished 2nd

She was definitely staying on at the end of that trial and I think she will get the trip, additionally she has form on soft ground so will handle the going conditions presented on Friday. I'm pretty confident she is improving all the time and Hugo Palmer seems to be fairly confident in his Betfair column, which you can read here-> (Hugo Palmer Betfair Column). If the favourite gets the trip she wins, but at the price I want to take her on and it looks an open enough race behind her, let's hope Architecture can do the business.

Others of interest include Turret Rocks, who definitely shapes like this trip will suit her but Jim Bolger isn't firing in the winners as I would like and the soft conditions will be against her, having never tan on soft ground. If it dried up rapidly before the off she must be considered but the fact soft ground is very likely puts me off. Skiffle has been supplemented for the race by the boys in blue and she is one that should certainly get the trip having shaped that way over 10 furlongs. At 11/2 though I'd let her go as I also feel she wants top of the ground to be at her best. Finally Harlequeen is the last horse of interest mainly because I'm interested that Mick Channon pitches her in here, but she didn't settle at all at York the last day and I think the occasion may get to her here.

Don't be put off by the price of your fancy in this race - 4 of the last 5 winners have been priced at 20/1 or bigger, including last year's winner Qualify at 50/1! To sum up I think Minding will win if she stays as she is the best filly in the race no doubt. However, her price is short enough, there are huge concerns about the trip and ground and I think her preparation could have been more ideal. Therefore, with likely softer ground, I'm putting up Architecture who has run well in trial races, has had a go round the track at the Breakfast with the Stars event and has the master Frankie Dettori on board.

Thanks for reading and good luck!