New Year at Cheltenham

Happy New Year!

Let me start by wishing you all a happy new year, lets hope its a successful one! And we can sooth the hangovers and aching heads on the 1st of January by absorbing ourselves in a really good card from Cheltenham in addition to plenty of action elsewhere. However, its the home of Jump racing to which my eye is drawn and Ive gone through the card here in the hope of welcoming in the new year with a few winners! The going, well its heavy, soft in places, so looks like stamina will be at a premium for jockeys as well as horses! If any of the jockeys have overdone the New Years celebrations the Cheltenham hill could be an unwanted feature of the races today...

12:10 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

A cracking race to welcome in the New Year at Cheltenham, this Novices Hurdle features the highly thought of Champers on Ice, Captain Chaos who has finished 2nd in a Grade 2, Drumlee Sunset, Hawkhurst and West Approach for the jockey/trainer combination of the moment. These are all horses with good form in the book, Captain Chaos has probably achieved the most so far over timber, and looks like he will head the market. Of the market principals I'd probably be with West Approach though, he has form over 3 miles round this track, so the stamina test posed on New Year's day shouldn't be a problem, and he has won on heavy ground before as well. Brennan will be riding at the peak of his confidence and I think he will prove hard to beat here.
However with the ground going to be heavy I'm expecting we could see a shock result or two on the card and I'm going to look down the runners for a horse or two to spring a shock in the opener.

Given the form of the yard at the moment I'm going to discount Hawkhurst as the Nicholls horses just don't seem to be running their races at the moment, but stable form also makes me interested in hurdling debutant Coole Charmer for Nicky Henderson. It's a tough race to make hurdling debut in but they must think a lot of him to stick him in here and definitely looks one to watch in the market.

Another to note is the Rebecca Curtis horse Preseli Rock, up in trip here but with plenty of form on heavy going in the book. I am drawn to the Curtis runners who have shown decent form when the yard was under a cloud, the horses are running much better now and I fancy Preseli Rock to improve on what he has shown so far.

I've given a few up there to have a look at in the opener where the notebook should be out in force!

Can Mr Henderson celebrate with a New Year's winner?

12:40 Watch Live Racing On BetBright.com Handicap Chase 

Now this will be some stamina test, 3 miles 2 furlongs on heavy ground - stayers only need apply here! Right, lets go through a few of these; I was drawn to Hollow Blue Sky at the foot of the weights but he ran in this race last year off a 1 lbs higher mark and didn't stay, finishing 8th, and comes here in pretty bad form. Discounting him. I wanted to keep on looking for feather weights so onto De Kerry Man, who has been off the track over 300 days since his last run. Whilst he does have loads of form on the ground this is a step up in trip and after such a long time off he may just need this.

In the end I have had to go quite a long way up in the weights for my selection, which is Alternative from the yard of David Pipe, well versed in landing a Cheltenham handicap or two. A 4 pound rise for his win last time out, over this trip on soft ground, seems fair enough and his 3rd at Cheltenham 2 runs ago looks pretty decent when you consider a lot of the Pipe yard were running below expectations at the time. He is only 6 years old so you would fancy there is a fair bit of improvement in here and I think he looks like one to be on here, despite the quite large weight he has to carry.

1:20 BetBright Realfansonly Novices' Chase (Registered As The Dipper Novices' Chase)

This is a top class renewal of the Dipper with some top form brought to the table. Le Mercury was lucky to win the last day, and with Nicholls not in good from I'm going to pass him by for all he is a horse I like. I'd also be keen to get with a horse receiving weight here and also one with form on the ground, with proven stamina, so the one I'm with here is Aubusson for lady of the moment Lizzie Kelly. Aubusson has smart hurdles form, won really well on chase debut the last day over 3 miles at uttoxeter (so stamina looks assured) and was deemed good enough to have a crack at the World Hurdle last year. Lizzie will be riding with loads of confidence and I think over a course and a distance he has form at (albeit over hurdles) Aubusson can provide Lizzie with another big success.

 Make no mistake though this race will be a cracker, Three Musketeers and Blaklion were very tough to ignore but they do have to concede weight all round, Minella Rocco is no doubt a lovely horse but hasn't fired over fences thus far, and Volnay De Thaix could possibly prefer a bit better ground. See You At Midnight would be an e/w selection to chase Aubusson home for me.

Can Lizzie Kelly get another big race win this Festive period?

1:55 BetBright Best For Festival Betting Handicap Chase 

Here is a favourite I quite want to take on in Village Vic. Now Village Vic was very impressive last time out, winning the Caspin Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham off an 8lbs lower mark, however he is up in the weights here to a mark of 144 and looking back through his form he would look to prefer better ground. And remember that was certainly 'the day' for Village Vic as he was seriously well fancied and had Dickie Johnson sweating down to 10 stone! At around the 7/2 mark there is enough to want to make me look elsewhere in this competitive heat.

A Good Skin is the one for me here, a horse who ran better than the result would show the last day (3rd in the Badger Ales Chase, got no luck in running, has actually been dropped 1 lbs since as well) and is taking a step down in trip here. He has some good form at Cheltenham in the past and also runs well when the ground comes up soft so heavy ground, on a trip shorter than usual, could prove right up his street. I always like Tom George Chasers and Gold Cup winning jockey Paddy Brennan will be doing the steering so from the bottom of the weights A Good Skin is the bet here.

2:30 Betbright Casino Handicap Hurdle

I'd love old warhorse Knockara Beau to win here, his victory in the Cleeve Hurdle in 2014 was absolutely astonishing and if you were on that day at 66/1 (I wasn't!) then he owes you absolutely nothing! However he has also shown absolutely nothing in 2015, being pulled up on his only run, so it is pretty hard to see him winning here, for all it would be some story!

I'm going for a horse at the bottom of the weights who absolutely hacked up on his latest start when upped to this 3 mile trip at Southwell the last day in Singlefarmpayment. Prior to that run he had finished a good 2nd in two handicap chases, but if the step up in trip has unlocked more improvement then I fancy him to go close here off a lovely low weight and with Nico De Boinville on board who is riding really well this year. Preferably chased home by the old boy Knockara Beau though!

3:05 Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle

Another absolutely cracking race featuring the reigning World Hurdle Champion Cole Harden. However after the great performance Identity Thief put up over Christmas, narrowly being denied by Nicholls Canyon in the Ryanair Hurdle, I want to be with Top Notch here, who receives weight from a lot in this field and will adore the ground at Cheltenham. He also loves the Cheltenham track, he was only just denied in the Triumph Hurdle in March 2015. This is a step up in trip but all the form Top Notch has shown so far makes it look like he has bags of stamina and getting weight from the likes of Whisper and Cole Harden make Top Notch the main selection.

Bob's Worth, the unbeaten hurdler, is also very interesting but I feel he will want better ground. I'd love to see him run really well here as I think the World Hurdle could be wide open this year, but I think he may also get slightly tapped for toe over this trip. Whisper and Cole Harden will surely improve on their rather disappointing seasonal debuts at Newbury the last day, however giving weight to the field may prove a bit too much on this ground. With Cole Harden's well publicised breathing issues he will also want better ground that presented here. Smart mare Aurore D'Estruval could be worth monitoring on her first start for Rebecca Curtis but after a year off the track may need this.

Don't ignore the claims of Virgilio for Dan Skelton here either, he may rate a nice e/w bet coming here off the back of three back to back wins and looks highly progressive. Dan has brought him along very nicely and he has won on very soft ground over in France. He looks like he will get the trip, however winning at Aintree and Warwick are very different to winning at Cheltenham and that is the reason I pass him over, for all I can see him running very well at a slightly bigger price than the selection Top Notch.

Can Top Notch prove Top Notch for the blog?

3:40 EBF Stallions & Cheltenham Pony Club Standard Open NH Flat Race

We finish the card with a bumper where I will not be getting too heavily involved! There are plenty of unarmed horses, however I'll put up a selection in the shape of Le Coeur Net. Anthony Honeyball, a trainer who enjoys success in this sphere, trains this one and I think it is significant he has booked Barry Geraghty for the ride.  In his blog for At The Races Barry says

"I ride LE COUER NET (3.40) in the Listed EBF Stallions & Cheltenham Pony Club Standard Open NH Flat Race for Anthony Honeyball.  He has never run before, but four of his siblings have won over jumps in France and Italy, and Anthony’s horses are going well."

However that is literally al I'm going on, I want to take on the Paul Nicholls favourite due to the stable form, and I do not advise heavy bets in this race unless you are privy to some inside information!

Thanks for reading and let's hope we can welcome in 2016 with a few winners!

All the best for the year ahead

Alex

Arise Sir Anthony McCoy

Arise Sir Anthony McCoy!

One of the most highly deserved knighthoods (in my humble opinion) has been granted to Anthony McCoy, or AP / The Champ as we more commonly refer to him as. The 20 time Champion jockey, having 31 career winners at the  Festival Cheltenham, setting the record of most wins in a season with 289 and a whopping 4,357 career wins. Wow. He battled numerous injuries, managed his weight and remained motivated for 20 consecutive years, absolutely incredible in my opinion. Never again will we see his like, such a long and relentless period of unparalleled success, this hugely driven, determined and committed man is one of a kind. He would get horses to win that never looked like winning, give horses confidence that was beyond their experience and lets not forget he would also give invaluable feedback to trainers and owners post-race that would help their horse to progress next time. The man was the complete jockey package and became hugely popular with the public; there won't have been a dry eye in Aintree the day he finally won the Grand National at his 15th attempt onboard Don't Push It. Family Business when re-mounting was allowed, Wichita Lineman at Cheltenham, Synchronised in the Gold Cup, Pridwell when he got the better of Istabraq, Drill Sergeant who practically pulled himself up but was still convinced to win by the Champ (or should that read persuaded!) AP McCoy would put as much effort into a ride at Uttoxeter as he would at the Cheltenham Festival. You always knew you would get 100% from the Champ wherever he was riding, whatever he was riding and to do this for a career lasting over 7,300 days is certainly something that should be recognised

If you get a few moments in this holiday period I'd definitely reckoned watching the documentary 'Being AP'; I found it enthralling viewing, and it gives you a call insight into the Champ and his personality and daily battles.

Congratulations Sir Anthony McCoy!

Christmas Eye-catchers

Well after some absolutely incredible horse racing over the past few days, including one of the most exciting King Georges I've ever seen, Storm Frank is set to cause somewhat of a lull in the action over the next few days. Fingers crossed Cheltenham on New Year's Day goes ahead as there are some top horses entered up at this stage but for now I thought I would go back and nominate a few moments that have really caught my eye over the Festive period.

The King George Chase, Kempton Park

Cue Card and Vautour produce a nfailbiting finish in the King George at Kempton

Well this was an absolute belter, producing a fascinating race and a photo finish to boot. Before the off this did look like one of the most competitive King Georges of recent times with many a Gold Cup hopeful engaged. Indeed coming into the home straight we had Vautour leading, with Cue Card and Don Cossack in close pursuit. However when Don Cossack came crashing down at the 2nd last when coming with a potentially winning run (Timeform have him rated as the top rated horse coming out of the race, as if he would have won if staying upright) it left Vautour and Cue Card to battle it out. And what a battle. Cue Card jumped the last behind but stayed on strongest to pip Ruby Walsh and Vautour by the narrowest of margins, with the judge being required to call the photo finish, When Cue Card was called the winner the crowd burst into cheer, the winner certainly a hugely popular one.

I don't actually think we have seen the Gold Cup winner from this race though. As a ten year old you would have your doubts about Cue Card in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, all the age stats are quite against him. There must be stamina doubts about the narrow runner up as he did seem to get done for stamina up the home straight, an extra 2 furlongs and a testing track do not appear to be what the doctor ordered for Vautour. Don Cossack just doesn't jump well enough under pressure and the rest just aren't good enough. No, for me we must look elsewhere for our Gold Cup winner.


The Lexus Chase, Leopardstown

Don Poli leads Foxrock and First Lieutenant in the Lexus Chase

So do we look over the Irish Sea, to Don Poli, the winner of the Lexus Chase, for our Gold Cup winner? Don Poli, or Don Slowly as he has been nicknamed, provided Willie Mullins with his first winner of the race from a fast finishing First Lieutenant but on paper the form doesn't look much, neither was he visually impressive. However, we have long known from trainer and jockey reports that Don Poli only ever does enough, he is lazy and will do what is required and no more. Therefore until he is really challenged he will never produce a huge time figure, and we should just take each win as it comes. There is no doubt that none of this field, apart from the winner, can really be considered Gold Cup winners but I think from the horses we have seen out over Christmas Don Poli is the one most likely to win the blue riband event in March. He will love the Cheltenham hill, has won at the course before and does have speed, after all he did hose up in the Martin Pipe over two and a half miles. That takes speed, we know he has bags of stamina and as I say if I was to bet one of the horses we have seen in action over the festive period for Cheltenham glory it would be Willie Mullin's Lexus winner.

The rest of the Kempton Action 

It really made me laugh when I saw Sprinter Sacre was pushed out in the market for Champion Chase glory in March after he had just produced a performance full of guts, battle and determination (proving to me he was over his heart issues) to win the Desert Orchid. The course wouldn't have suited yet he still won, there was no sign of a bounce and he saves his best for Cheltenham. This really was another positive performance for me and it was strange, in my opinion, to see his price drift for the 2 mile championship race. However I do absolutely love the horse and this may well have been written with blue and red tinted glasses, but I found it fabulous to see Sprinter and Sire De Grugy producing a cracking finish to entertain the Kempton faithful. Another brilliant race and one to savour.

Lizzie Kelly provided a brilliant human story as she became the first female jockey to win a Grade 1 race on these shores. It was fitting that the horse to partner her to this amazing success was Tea for Two, on whom she has enjoyed many a fine moment, as Lizzie and TFT took the Feltham Novices Chase with a brilliant performance. I don't think it was a brilliant field, and I would be a layer rather than a backer in the RSA if Tea for Two was to turn up there, but on a speed track over an easy 3 miles Tea for Two was very impressive. Lizzie gave him a cracking ride and if you haven't seen it you should seek out channel 4 jockey cam footage to really appreciate the emotion and what this meant to Lizzie, it really pulls at the heartstrings!

Faugheen looked back to his brilliant best when taking the Christmas Hurdle, however the opposition wasn't up to a huge amount and I fancy his biggest competition will come from his own yard in the shape of Nicholls Canyon and Arctic Fire. Still, he comprehensively beat The New One and Hargam, jumping well and looking a far better horse than we saw on seasonal debut. I wouldn't back him now at odds on for the Champion Hurdle, surely he won't be much shorter on the day, but at this stage he is the most likely winner and has been there and done it all before. Give me a free £10 bet and it goes on My Tent or Yours though, who I can't wait to see back out again and for me is value at 25/1 in the hope Henderson can bring him back like he has done with Sprinter and to a lesser extent Bob's Worth and potentially Simonsig.

Just like last year, Faugheen cruises home in the Christmas Hurdle

I don't think we saw anything that can win the Arkle at Kempton, Douvan is head and shoulders above the opposition here, as although he is a very good and brave horse I do not think Ar Mad will be good enough.  If Vaniteux was going to beat him it would have been here I think, at a speed track on good ground, and he couldn't despite heading him towards the finish. Nothing to report in regards to Cheltenham here as Douvan would laugh at this field (not that there is any shame in that!).

Honourable mentions from the Kempton 2 day meet must also go to Altior, who is a definite contender for Supreme glory based on his beating of a good field in the opening race of the meeting. Alter did look in trouble at one stage but stayed on powerfully, in the end putting a good distance between himself and Open Eagle from the WIllie Mullins yard, with the Paul Nicholls pair a distance back in 3rd and 4th. Min may be hard to beat but Nicky Henderson has a useful one to go to war with here, especially as he is already proven round Cheltenham.

And over the Irish Sea

Douvan...wow! On the race of it the Novice's Chase on St Stephen's Day looked a cracker, with Ttebbob , Sizing John and Velvet Maker all in opposition and all capable of giving Douvan a race (well that was the theory). In reality Douvan absolutely laughed at these, destroying each and every one of the opposition and winning as he liked in the end. No doubt about it this horse looks a superstar! Sizing John provided the best opposition but he may well go down the JLT route in order to avoid another clash with Douvan at Cheltenham, while Ttebbob was pulled up and Velvet maker made to look rather pedestrian by the winner who is out of the top draw. Arkle banker material for me, his jumping is electric, he has Cheltenham form and has speed to burn. What more could you want...how about the master Ruby Walsh back on board come March? Oh, go on then!

Point and shoot, Douvan on his way to routing a small but quality field at Leopardstown

Another horse to really impress me was No More Heroes after he romped to glory in a 3 mile Novice's chase on the 29th December. Coming into the home straight No More Heroes was absolutely cruising through the soft ground and there was only one winner of the race, indeed he went on to win by an easy 9 lengths that could have been so much more. I love this horse; he jumps, stays and is all heart and I'll certainly be a backer if he goes for the RSA Chase, 4/1 at the moment but that will be a deal shorter once his festival target is confirmed.

Nicholls Canyon won again, but only by a narrow margin from the vastly improving Identity Thief in the Ryanair Hurdle. Mullins said after it would be hard to impress in this sort of ground and it was good to see him battle, however this didn't quite look the same horse that dispatched Faugheen the last day. Perhaps he needs better ground, it was an absolute bog at Leopardstown when he ran, and I still wouldn't write off his hopes of a Champion Hurdle come March.

Don't miss the run of Tombstone who met defeat over the festive period but make no mistake he is a huge player in the Supreme. Definitely the best horse in the Novice Hurdle he contested at Leopardstown he just got no luck in running and perhaps didn't receive the best of rides but as I say don't give up on him. He is one of my favourite Novice's this season and will surely be making amends for this defeat in time.

Finally before I waffle on for too long I must mention a few juvenile hurdlers. Footpad and Rahsaan had their Triumph Hurdle bubbles burst, while Ivanovich Gorbatov certainly enhanced his claims for the hurdle on the Friday of Cheltenham with a hugely impressive victory over a well backed Willie Mullins horse on ground he would have hated a day after those two had gone pop. On better ground the O'Brien trained juvenile will be an even better horse, and you would fancy him to also improve for this debut run, so quotes of 7/1 for Triumph glory look fair enough to me.


I'm sure to have missed a load of action but there was just so much to fit in and I wanted to mention some of the more notable performances. If you feel I've missed a big horse off, or have an eye-catcher you feel you have unearthed, then please let me know either via twitter (@_Neptune_) or by commenting below!

Thanks for reading!

Alex

Boxing Day Bonanza

I love Christmas....and I love Boxing Day and the feast of racing that comes after the special day. There is so much action, 11 cards in all, so it is a little easy to get overwhelmed and try and take it all in. However I'm going to concentrate on the Kempton card, where I'll be in attendance, and it looks a top card featuring potentially the best chase of the season. The Gold Cup will have to step up to the plate this year to match the King George with Don Cossack (highest rated chaser in training), Vautour (JLT winner seemingly with the world at his feet), Cue Card (Born again Chaser), Silviniaco Conti (2 time winner of the race), Smad Place (Hennessy winner) before we even get to the talented Al Ferof. However more on that whopper of a race later, let's get cracking with the rest of the card.

They will have go go some to match the great Kauto Star in the King George but it looks a top renewal this year

12:50 - Novices Hurdle

A decent race to open the card with Altior, the Nicky Henderson trained horse, currently heading the market at 6/4, skinny enough for me and enough to tempt me elsewhere. I think Open Eagle will run a big race if the heavens open but he will also be plenty short enough given connections. Meet the Legend has his first run over hurdles for top trainer Dan Skelton and gets weight from those with more experience, he also will be guaranteed a pace in this race to go along with so he will be able to get settled and run his race, could certainly see him hitting the frame at 7/1. However my selection is one of the two Paul Nicholls horses in this race, and I'll take Marracudja over Simon Squirrel, just as Sam Twiston-Davies has done. The selection is 2 from 2 since his summer wind operation, and this soft ground over the minimum distance is perfect for him. I fancy Sam to get him out front early on and at a course that really favours front-running horses he will be hard enough to peg back and rates a knocking e/w bet at 4/1. Can't see him out the frame and really fancy him to win.


1:25 - Novices Limited Handicap Chase

A trappy race here, with cases to be made for plenty but hard to find a solid selection. Bekkensfirth will probably head the market down at the bottom of the weights after his chase debut win but he is up 10 lbs for that win and in a competitive race that could be enough to halt his winning run for now. Same can be said for Anthony, who won last time out when his trainer was in absolutely amazing form and with that weight increase could also find this slightly too hot.
Full Shift seems like he has a race in him but is getting a bit frustrating now, however it is interesting to note his last win did come at this track and for all I couldn't recommend a bet on him he would be a shock winner. Germany Calling would prefer a sounder surface, West Wizard was so frustrating over hurdles I have to just let him run here and How About It is up in the weights for a modest 3rd the last day so can be overlooked.
I'm finally getting round to my selection in this race and for me it was hard to choose between Sirabad,  Buckhorn Timothy and Unique De Cotte. The latter comes here on chase debut and could be on a good mark if he makes a better chaser than a hurdler, however Pipe is not in great form and this is enough for me to overlook him. Therefore I come down to Sirabad and Buckhorn Timothy and purely at the prices I make Buckhorn Timothy the selection.  Sirabad will love the ground and ran much better the last day than on debut, I know the stable think a bit of him and I think his mark is definitely winnable. But at over twice the price I'm going for Buckhorn Timothy whose trainer Colin Gizzard is enjoying a fantastic season. The trainer reported he got stuck in the mud a bit at Chepstow the last day, hardly surprising considering how bad the ground can get there, and was a super easy winner the time before that on similar ground to that he will find at Kempton. He goes well round a speedy track like Footwell so Kempton should also suit and he is still on the same mark as his decent but excusable run last time out. At 10/1 he can be bet e/w as I really like his chance of hitting the frame.

2:00 - Kauto Star Novices Chase

A three mile chase for Novices where the market will be headed by Native River and Tea for Two. However I think we can look beyond these two shorties for our selections as I'm not massively convinced that Kempton will play to Native River's strengths, he looks to be all about stamina to me and may get tapped for toe a little round here, while Tea for Two may not quite stay 3 miles, he was pulled up on his last attempt at it, and these doubts are enough to get me looking elsewhere.
Bally Beaufort was narrowly overlooked, he is 2 from 2 over fences and likes this three mile trip, as he may just find this Grade 1 race a bit too much of a step up in class having been winning in Grade 3 races thus far. As De Mee has run well in defeat this season but all his form is over shorter and the same doubts I have over Tea for Two can apply here.
The selection for me here is Southfield Royale for the Neil Mulholland yard, a stable enjoying a really good season and this is a horse I like a lot. He is also a Grace 2 winner, on heavy ground over this trip, so clearly has the stamina required. Prior to that he thrashed the highly rated Zeroshadesofgrey and has enough speed to have won over 2 miles 4 furlongs so I don't doubt his ability to act round here. At an attractive 6/1 Southfield Royal is the bet here.


2:35 - Christmas Hurdle

Reigning Champion Hurdler Faugheen comes here off the back of a shock defeat

A hard enough betting race as the reigning Champion Hurdler Faugheen rocks up here and even after his defeat the last day he is by far an away the most likely winner. However I'm not here to tip up 1/6 shots, especially those who come here on the back of a defeat, and I'll look for some value to follow him home.
I'm not convinced by The New One because of the worries about this Kissing Spine that was troubling him last season. The fact Sam deserts him here, plus Nigel has been fairly vocal that his charge will not be 100% after missing work is enough to get me looking elsewhere. Old Guard is short enough considering this race is a bit of an afterthought and his best form comes at Cheltenham which is a completely different test to the that posed by the Kempton track. Finally Sign of a Victory will hate the ground.
Even though Hargam would much prefer better ground he does act on soft, as proven by his great run in last years Triumph Hurdle on soft ground to finish third. He also ran well the last day to be beaten under 2 lengths by Old Guard, however I think he can turn that form around given he will be more at home and more favoured by the speed test Kempton offers. He is also a much bigger price! At 16/1 Hargam is my e/w play, or even bet him in one of the without the favourite markets. Faugheen should hose up here though.

3:10 - The King George

What a renewal. As previously mentioned the field lining up for this Grade 1 is absolutely top-notch. However there are also doubts over a fair few at the head of the market and I'll outline these as I attempt to justify my position in the race!
Don Cossack looks a rock solid favourite and is the right favourite in my opinion for all he is short enough. His two races this season will have him fit for this and he has won nicely as he was expected to do both times. Having won the Punchestown Gold Cup over 3 miles 1 furlong, and not stopping at the end as he did this, his stamina looks assured and the only slight doubt is the ground; the Don would prefer a sounder surface but does have winning form on soft. Will also be suited by the way the race is run with guaranteed pace in it with so many front running horses. The one they all have to beat.
Vautour is one I want to take on for all he is potentially the most classy of all of these. A brilliant winner of last years JLT at Cheltenham he is very much the sexy horse in the race. However this is quite a step up in trip and his stamina will be stretched as it has never been before especially with the pace angles in this race. The way he jumped out at Ascot the last day was also concerning, he can't have those jumping doubt here as the early pace could have him falling, and we must be concerned that he was abysmal when running at this time of the year last season. For all he could outclass these and be the next Kauto Star there are enough doubts around him for me to want to take him on at around 3/1/
Cue Card seems a totally different horse this year after a well publicised breathing operation over the summer. He has since come out and won twice, the Charlie Hall and the Betfair Chase, and comes here with confidence high. However I cannot help remembering that he has been here a few times before and failed before, even when coming here on the back of winning runs. Could it be that Kempton just doesn't suit him? If breathing was the reason he completely stopped when in front 2 out and let Silvinaco Conti in for the win a few years ago, and that has now been cured, he could run a huge huge race. But I don't want to be branded insane for doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different result and for that reason I'll swerve Cue Card.
Smad Place comes here off the back of an all the way win in the Hennessy, a fantastic win and one which saw an absolutely beautiful display of jumping to boot. When he gets to the front Smad Place is a joy to watch, pinging each fence and showing stamina in bucket loads. If there was less of a contest for the lead in the King George then I would be really keen on Smad, however the fact that Cue Card, Vautour and Silvinaco Conti will all want to lead makes me a bit worried Smad Place won't get the lead he likes that allows him to perform so well. If he gets to the front he will be ultra hard to peg back, and maybe this could be an angle for the in running players, but for me I can't advice Smad pre-race because of this concern.
Silvinaco Conti is a two time winner of this race but hasn't seemed himself this season. This could be because of the issue with his legs that apparently as hindered him in his work in the run up to the Betfair Chase at Haydck but I can't help feeling that this race is much stronger than the renewals in which Conti was a winner. His first win in the race came when Cue Card completely stopped in front when looking a surefire winner, the 2nd came when beating the likes of Dynaste and a non-stayer in Champagne Fever. Fair play to Conti for winning this race twice before but I think this renewal will be far too strong for him, for all I could see his undoubted stamina allowing him to reach the frame especially if the ground is very soft.
Al Ferof is a horse best fresh, so for all he was impressive in winning the Peterborough Chase last time out I think he would have run better in this race if he had missed that race and come here fresh. However it could be that Dan Skelton is training him in a way that Nicholls didn't, I've read stuff about underwater treadmills and the like, but he has come up short in this race many a time before and may not have the stamina required for the 3 mile trip, especially with the pace in this race. He is one I can happily pass over.
Valseur Lido ran a really nice run on reappearance, running over a trip that is likely to be too short (should improve for this step up in trip in my opinion) to finish a staying on 2nd behind Djakadam, beating the likes of Clarcam and Gilgamboa who would be more at home over 2 miles 4 furlongs. That run will have him spot on for this race, 3 miles round Kempton will suit him down to a tee from what we have seen so far and he also acts on soft ground. Certainly won't be getting involved in the contest for the lead and I can see him staying on into a place.
Irish Cavalier has been thrashed by Valseur Lido before and if I was looking for an e/w bet I'd rather be on Valseur Lido, especially with VL more suited by this stamina test in my opinion. Lastly Ballynagour should not be good enough on all known form and ran shockingly last time out.

So to summarise my thoughts on the race Don Cossack is my win bet, he looks totally solid at the head of the market and has the least amount of chinks in his armoury from what I can see.
Valseur Lido is my fancy to run well at a big price and stay on into a place.

King George Win selection Don Cossack

3:45 - Handicap Hurdle

After all he excitement (hopefully) of this King George we end with a decent little handicap hurdle and I'll take 2 against the field here.
Sugar Baron is quite exciting here for the Henderson yard but the stable are not in the best of form, they have only had 20 or so runners in the whole of December which is tiny for the yard, and at 4/1 in a 16 runner field, on seasonal debut, he is short enough. If the yard were firing in the winners I'd be much more interested but I'll let him run here. You fancy Gunner Fifteen will be a short price as well for Harry Fry, a yard who actually are in flying form, but for my selections I'll be going bigger prices.
The first pick is Little Boy Boru for Suzy Smith. Little Boy Boru ran at Kempton in a C&D handicap in January last year on soft ground, finishing 2nd to Tea for Two and beating the likes of Del Arca so decent form. He is actually now 6 lbs below the mark he performed so credibly from and back at the course he clearly likes I can see him outrunning his price of 25/1.
The second selection is Keltus for Paul Nicholls. He has had one of the famous breathing operations over the summer, which apparently held him back a bit, so his comeback run at Sandown the other day will have been much needed. He will surely come on a bundle for that run and I think this may be the season he realises the high hopes the stable had for him a few years back. If the breathing operation has worked the oracle then 16/1 rates a knocking e/w bet. I'm sure you will permit me two goes at the race when they are 25 and 16/1!


Boxing Day Kempton

12:50 Marracudja
1:25 Buckhorn Timothy
2:00 Southfield Royal
2:35 Hargam e/w
3:10 Don Cossack win, Valseur Lido e/w
3:45 Little Boy Boru e/w and Keltus e/w

And there we have it! The Kempton card in full, let's just hope there are a few winners in there to accompany an absolutely belting day of sport this Boxing Day.
Enjoy and Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all!

Alex

Jamie Snowden Stable Tour

I was absolutely thrilled when I heard that the London Racing Club was organising a trip to the Lambourn yard of Jamie Snowden; that is Jamie Snowden trainer of a Cheltenham Festival winner in Present View. He is currently training around 40 horses in his yard including 'Elvis', the aforementioned Cheltenham Winner. I didn't hesitate in getting involved and can report back that the day was absolutely incredible. We were taken to the gallops of Lambourn (absolutely spectacular) to watch the Snowden 3rd lot galloping before being treated to a tour of the yard and a resume of the horses under Jamie's care.

One thing that really struck me about the day was just how friendly and welcoming Jamie and the yard as a whole were in general. It was as if we were long time friends of the yard and had been going for years whereas the reality was that it was a first visit for the vast majority of us! I'd love to have the money to get involved in horse racing ownership (unfortunately I don't think it would be the best use of my PGCE grant!) however if you are considering it then do check out www.jamiesnowdenracing.co.uk.  Jamie was kind enough to run through the horses under his care and let us know about his thoughts for the horses and the year ahead. Let me share a few of those thoughts with you here. Hopefully it can be a great year ahead for Jamie with plenty of winners for the yard, perhaps even beating their previous best tally of 20 winners for the season!


Present View

Let's start with Present View, the yard's Cheltenham Festival winner and clearly adored by everyone at Folly House. Nicknamed Elvis due to his love of attention Present View was on the gallops in the lot we saw and looked fabulous, so powerful and strong. However he won't be going hurdling this year as that was the cause of his injury issues last year, he clouted the 2nd last hurdle at Cheltenham on seasonal debut which led to a nasty cut and time off (still finished a neck 2nd) and perhaps just doesn't respect the smaller obstacles. He blew up in the Paddy Power (still finished 3rd) but the lay off after the cut was probably the cause of his slight lack of race fitness. However because of his curtailed season he is only up 2 lbs this season rather than a stone or so and could be very well handicapped. Present View will be kept to fences, targeting the Showcase meeting and then the Paddy Power and I certainly will be backing him in these races given how well handicapped this horse could be. Stable Star and a worthy one.



Jean Fleming

A two time hurdle winner as well as a point to point victor who has never finished out of the first three in her life. She gallops all day long and really needs the emphasis on stamina to be seen at her best. She will go to a Ludlow handicap hurdle and then a Wincanton handicap where hopefully her stamina can be brought into play. Tries all day long.



Midnight Silver

An interesting horse, 2 time bumper winner last season including in the mud at Ffos Las. However the yard thought she was making noises associated with her breathing so she has had a wind operation. She must be pretty talented to win twice if her breathing was causing her issues so could be a horse to follow this season with those issues hopefully resolved. Could be smart.


Val De Law

A horse Jamie was dead keen on for the year ahead. Because he is still a novice he can go down the novice chase route this year with a year's experience under his belt. How he didn't win last year is a bit of a mystery; he fell at the last when tanking alongside Southfield Theatre at Exeter (looks very smart form now) before idling when in the lead at Leicester. He acquitted himself with huge credit in a Grade 1 at Aintree over 2 miles and 4 where he didn't quite stay. However the bonus about that is that he remains a novice of huge potential for the season ahead and will be kept to the 2 mile trip, going down the novice chase route before Graded races later in the season, all being well. Very much one to watch.

Be On Time

A potentially interesting horse for early on in the season; he can still run in Novice Chases, despite finishing 2nd in a case at Auteuil and also will be able to claim a hefty weight allowance as a 4 year old. In France they start them earlier so he will be able to race against horses with the same or even less experience over fences and receive lumps of weight from them! Jamie will look to get Be On Time out early to take advantage of this and I'd be keen to follow him in early this year.

Ardkilly Witness

This horse, rated 139, absolutely adores it round Sandown and the owner would love to win the Grand Military Chase they hold there later in the season. However to do this you need to be rated 130 or less so Jamie plans to run him in big races this season. If he runs well and his weight goes up then the Grand National can be targeted, if not then it'll be the Military Cup route.

Denboy

An unraced 5 year old for extremely patient owners. He is a bay gelding out of a sister to the great Denman and is an absolute tank himself. Jamie has had him for two years now and will send him hurdling this year. He has taken to the hurdles well at home and will be interesting, hopefully he can reward the owners patience (same colours as Dodging Bullets).


Rhythm Star 

Disappointed on her final start last season but that may have been the result of a long hard season. Is a winning hurdler and goes novice chasing this year; she could be well handicapped. Will mix and match between chasing and hurdling however as the programme for mare novice chasers isn't the best.

Our Three Sons 

Has run twice and been second twice. Came in late from the grass this summer and patience will be required with him however he stays well, will take in 2 bumpers this year and then be one for hurdles next season. Jamie can afford to take time with him as he is only 4 years old.

Miss Tiger Lily

Three time flat winner who sustained an injury and was off for a year. The owners have decided to send her jumping and she will run this coming Tuesday for the first time for Jamie.

Monbeg Theatre

A two time hurdle winner, in addition to a bumper victory, but the yard found out last year he doesn't stay three miles. Will drop back to two and a half miles and run in novice hurdle races where he could go well.

Fact of the Matter

Jamie likes this one, jumps brilliantly and will go for novice hurdles this year

Ethelred

Unseated the rider last time out, that was no fault of anyone, and prior to that had only been beaten a nose in a chase. He has been handicapped over hurdles but could be a better chaser and one potentially to note in handicap chases this season.

Our Reward

A smashing horse who has won a P2P and received a P2P rating of 91; to put that into perspective Present View got a P2P rating of 94 so this one could be very good. He is schooling well and is a very strong, nice type who is just starting work now.

Souriyan

Bought from the Aga Kahn Souriyan is a winning Novice Hurdler and was just touched off in the mud at Ffos Las the time after his win. He then ran in the Fred Winter, where he finished around 8 lengths off the winner. Will now go Novice Chasing.

Bob's Legend

Has been rated as high as 110, however is now down to a mark of 92 which is what attracted Jamie to him. We found out on his stable debut he needs a step up in trip from 2 miles so he goes over 2 miles 2 furlongs on Sunday and the yard think they can have a good bit of fun with him off his current mark.

Mollyanna

A sister to smart horse Oscar Time so will certainly stay a trip! Will go chasing with her.

Major Milbourne

Loves Newbury, the 2 mile 2 furlong trip suits and soft ground also ideal. He has been paced in bumpers and hurdles but his hurdle rating is a touch high. He has also won a handicap chase and may be of more interest in that sphere.

Ventura Castle

Still just a three year old and the yard will take him novice hurdling this season. On his first run for the yard he was unfairly carried out and then the next time it was found he may have a breathing issue. He has now had his wind done and will have one more run in novice company before going handicapping.



That's about it from my notes on the Jamie Snowden runners, hope you find them useful and we can get a few winners for the season ahead! One final time I must stress just how appreciative I was of the  day as a whole and the time Jamie gave up to take us up to the gallops and then give us an extensive tour of his stable. To give up that much time on a busy day just shows how friendly and welcoming the yard is and I just hope I get the chance to go back before too long!

Lets keep our fingers crossed for a good season for the Snowden yard!

Thanks for reading!

Alex Bellew

2015-2016 Season Coming Into View

Welcome back to National hunt Natterings as we gear up for another season of hurdles and fences with the overriding shadow of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival already looming large over all the action.

As we head into September the weather has gotten colder and rainier and we are starting to get a few quotes in the Racing Post from the traditional big jumping yards so I though that now would be about the right time to crank up the blog again in the hope of gaining a head start on the bookies! In Monday's edition of the Post we had a little bit from Philip Hobbs (Balthazar King "back in training by the end of the year " ) as well as a very positive trainer update on the promising hurdler Kitten Rock, now to be sent chasing and a tremendously exciting prospect for Edward O'Grady. All jockeys to have ridden him say he is a chaser in the making so certainly one to watch out for come November, which is apparently when we are next to see him. It's always exciting when a horse good enough to contest a Champion Hurdle is sent over fences and Kitten Rock is no exception, I am very excited to see him over the larger obstacles.

Kitten Rock, a very good hurdler, is to be sent chasing this season

Another yard from which I read some interesting news was that of Warren Greatrex, a trainer I have a lot of time for and one I think is sure to be in for a big season as owners start to take more notice of him off the back of his great success with, among others, Cheltenham Festival winner Cole Harden. He reports a few of his string to be ahead of others, including Kaysersberg, Horsted Valley, Alzammaar and Simple Assignment. The first of those has also had a wind operation and all should be out at the end of September so perhaps worth keeping on side in the hope that Greatex can start the season with a bang.

Waren Greatrex with his stable star

Finally I myself am off to the yard of Jamie Snowdon this coming Friday for a stable visit organised by the kind folk at the London Racing Club. Hopefully I can note down some stable hopes for the coming season and report back here as well as a general review of the day, one which I am hugely excited for!

Thanks for reading

Post Cheltenham News Wrap

Well post-Cheltenham I suppose we can't be at all surprised but this week has been fairly quiet on the horse racing front, with the majority of the news of interest revolving around horses who have run at Cheltenham and where they might go next, with Aintree and Punchestown the focus of attention for the National Hunt fans. I've got a round up of some possible running plans for us to consider

Aintree

• Whisper, a creditable 5th in the World Hurdle, will go for the Liverpool Hurdle at the meeting where owner Dai Walters thinks the benefit of the Cheltenham run plus the flatter track at Aintree will lead to Whisper going close in the race he won last year.
• World Hurdle winner Cole Harden may also be seen at Aintree, with Warren Greatrex reporting his charge to have come out of Cheltenham bouncing. Apparently he has taken the race amazingly and will, all being well, go to Aintree for the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle.
• Jockey Jason Maguire however is struggling to be fit for the Merseyside spectacular after a heavy fall at Catterick last month. A Grand National winning jockey Jason certainly deserved a bit of luck.
• The Foxhunters Chase at Aintree is the target for Big Fella Thanks, a horse who goes well round the track having finished a best placed 4th in the big race in 2010 in addition to numerous other good runs at the track.
• Carlingford Lough, joint top weight for the Grand National, will miss the race altogether despite running with credit in the Gold Cup on ground that was a touch too soft for his liking.
• One horse who is bang on track for the big one though is Saint Are who proved his aptitude for the fences with a 9th place finish in the race in 2013 and a 3rd in the Becher Chase in December. Tom George, his trainer, reports him absolutely spot on at the moment.

Has winning the 2014 Grand National left it's mark on Pineau Du Re?

• A trainer who recognises the need for serious improvement is the good Doctor Richard Newland. His charge, former winner Pineau De Re (2014), has run poorly on all of his starts this season and while reporting Pineau to be on track the Dr does realise he has to 'raise his game' come April if he is to retain his crown. 
• God's Own, who ran a blinder to finish 2nd to Un De Sceaux in the Arkle, could run at Aintree over 2 or 2.5 miles but that will be ground dependent as God's Own really needs good ground to be seen at his best. Otherwise he may head to Punchestown or Fairyhouse if the ground is more suitable there.
• Finally Ruby Walsh reports Vautour to be the most likely of Willie Mullin's Cheltenham stars to be Aintree bound as he needs a 2 1/2 mile race to be seen at his best. However the Melling Chase, a Grade 1 open to older horses, was all but ruled out as Vautour will be sticking to Novice company.

Punchestown and Fairyhouse

• Punchestown race course may be the lucky track that next gets to host the talented trio of Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Faugheen according to the man who will get to ride them, Ruby Walsh.

Will Faugheen be turning up at Punchestown?

• Fairyhouse on the other had must have been pleased to see Vautour and Don Poli in the entries for the Ryanair Gold Cup. 

Other News

A quick summary of the other headlines making our racing press this week.

• Glen's Melody, the brave winner (and possibly slightly fortunate) of the Mares hurdle at Cheltenham this year is to be retired; talk about going out on a high!
• Hurricane Fly may step up to 3 miles for the French Champion Hurdle after a highly creditable 3rd place in the Champion Hurdle this year. I for one would love to see this and hope Willie does go ahead with his plan.
•  Danny Cook, currently enjoying his most prolific season to date, will serve a 6 month ban after testing positive for Cocaine. Young Cook admits his 'catastrophic error of judgement' and has apologised profusely, taking his ban on the chin.

Danny Cook set for a spell on the sidelines

• Irish Grand National weights were released this week. Topped by Don Cossack, an unlucky 3rd at Cheltenham in the Ryanair, the market is headed by Grand Gesture and Gallant Oscar.If either of those two run well it would he a huge pointer to the chances of The Druids Nephew who beat them both easily at the Cheltenham Festival in the opening day 3 mile handicap chase.

Cheltenham 2015 - one to remember!

Only 360 days to go!

Another year and another Cheltenham festival over, but what an amazing feast of equine action we were treated too over for days in March. New champions crowned, trainers getting their maiden festival victories, Mullins domination and plenty of stories to come out of the racing. The weeks ahead will be full of festival review, horses for the notebook and future winners so I thought I'd do something a little different to remember Cheltenham 2015 with.

A good festival for

• Willie Mullins. Even allowing for the unexpected defeat of Annie Power the master of Irish racing still won all four grade 1 races on the first day on his way to surpassing Nicky Henderson's record of seven wins in one festival with eight of his own. In Don Poli, Vautour, Djakadam, Faugheen, Douvan and a Un De Sceaux he has the building of a formidable squad for next year already and quotes of him stopping all four championship races don't look that fanciful! And let's not forget Mullins saddled the 1-2-3 in the champion hurdle, a ridiculous achievement akin to the Dickinson first five in the Gold Cup. This was some week for Willie.

• The Bradstocks. Criticised in some parts for sending a novice for the Gold Cup the combination of Sara and Mark Bradstock were fully vindicated come 3:30 on Friday after Coneygree produced one of the most impressive displays ever seen by a novice round Prestbury Park on his way to winning the biggest race of them all; The Cheltenham Gold Cup. This is such a remarkable story, think back to when this horse was being withdrawn from a race at Plumpton at the start of the season on vet advice, the price paid for this horse who was seeing off Gigginstown Stud horses, Rich Ricci horses,the size of the Bradstock yard...Willie Mullins had more winners at Cheltenham than they have had all season, the prize money won in this race more than the Bradstock's had learnt in the preceding 5 seasons! It's what makes jump racing so good; the fact you can win big no matter who you are, a horse bred out of a £3,000 mare can best off the most expensively bred beasts out there.

• Warren Greatrex and Gavin Sheehan, the trainer jockey combination responsible for World Hurdle Winner Cole Harden. Gavin gave this a great ride from the front and thrust the pair into the Cheltenham spotlight, something I am sure we well become accustomed to in the future especially Sheehan who many top to be a jockey going places, even more so with the retirement of AP McCoy.this was a taste of the glory offered at Cheltenham and I'm sure the pair will now be working even harder so they can taste it again. The tears down Greatrex's face in the aftermath of this win Sun's up the emotion that the festival stirs in people who love the sport and this passion is marvellous to see.

Not so good for

• Bryan Cooper. OK so he did get on the score sheet with Don Poli but a host of his mounts where disappointing; the likes of Ourlander, Don Cossacks, . Young Bryan would have hoped to pick up a fair few more winners and to top it off he received whip band ruling him out if both English and Irish grand nationals. He has plenty of years ahead of him do I'm sure he will be able to put this behind him but it's fair to say Bryan and Gigginstown would have been hoping for a better festival.

• The old guard. The likes of Silviniaco Conti, Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, Zarkandar. All festival hopefuls who on previous form had great chances but who ultimately didn't perform and had to give way to younger rivals, New kids on the block. Where they go with Sprinter from here I do not know, to be honest retirement looks the only option as he seems a shadow of his old self.Conti surely had had his chance of winning a Gold Cup now, ditto Zarkander and the World Hurdle. It looks like we saw a real passing of the guard here and these old hero's well have to give best to fresh young horses from now on in. And I've not even mentioned Bob's Worth...

The New One. After last season's champion hurdle when he was supposedly unlucky not to have won after hampered by the sad and fatal fall of Our Conor The New One had no excuses this time. He was just not good enough and finished our of the placing, not the run Nigel and the team were hoping for or expecting. Arctic Fire and Faugheen both seen to well and truly have his measure and will do next season as well whereas Hurricane Fly at least may not be around to beat him again. Still they may have to look at stepping The New One up in distance, our maybe even look at fences, if he is to taste Grade 1 victory at Cheltenham again.

And one that will live long in the memory of...

AP McCoy. His last Cheltenham festival of a long and glittering career will be one McCoy will never forget. He had had more successful ones, more winning rides and more praise for tremendous rides but for sheer emotion, the adulation of the public and the love and appreciation shown to the champion this will be one he will never forget. By all accounts the cheer that greeted AP as he entered the winners enclosure on his sole winner of the week, Uxizandre appropriately in the JP McManus colours, was the loudest heard for many a year. And seeing the reception afforded to the man after his final ride, in the AP McCoy Grand Annual where he finished fourth, made me smile. As racing fans we are showing the man just how much we will miss his, how much we appreciate just what he has done for the sport. For sure Cheltenham 2016 will be missing something and I think we all know what, or rather who, that special something is.

Cheltenham Friday; Day 4 Selections

Friday Selections

Triumph Hurdle

 A race that could turn into a benefit night for owner Simon Munir as he owns Peace and Co (hot favourite), Top Notch and Baraka de Thaix; could he really have the first three home? Surely not but the one I like the most of his is Top Notch who I believe to be the most professional of the three and the one most likely to give his running in the lively atmosphere that will greet this field. After all this is the first race of the biggest day of the Festival, the crowd are likely to be fairly raucous! Top Notch is unbeaten in all 5 starts and hurdles beautifully, he is only proven up to class 2 level and hasn't beaten much but he has done all he has been asked too and looks full of potential. At 10/1 I cannot see him out the frame and is a much more attractive bet than Peace and Co at 5/2.

Simon Munir's colours will be very hard to keep out the frame

Karazak looks sure to give his running and will be in the first 5 I'd reckon, however isn't good enough on all known form and looks plenty exposed enough. The other I'm really excited to see here is Hargam, another from the Henderson yard. Now I wouldn't rule out a Henderson 1-2-3 here! This horse will love the good ground we look like getting, has Cheltenham form and was very impressive the last time up at Musselburgh, where he went in search of decent going. If the ground was riding really quick he would overtake Top Notch as my selection as he looks the more likely to produce a better run on those conditions, at 13/2 he is short enough now though and I prefer the 10/1 about Top Notch.

County Handicap Hurdle

I'm on Cheltenian here for the Philip Hobbs yard, a horse good enough to win the champion bumper in the past so brings some course experience to the table. He ran his best run for some time in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury last time out and the form of that run is working out well, with the 3rd horse running really well in the Coral Cup and Ebony Express (going really well when falling 2 out) won the ultra competitive Imperial Cup at Sandown last weekend. Chelteniam handles a variety of ground, so the forecast rain isn't an issue, and Richard Johnson has been talking this up as his ride of the week at preview nights. I'll take this former Champion Bumper horse to grab more festival glory, but at the price (14/1) an e/w investment is my approach.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

I'm going to go for the Father-Son combination of Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies here and back Blaklion who looks massively overpriced at 14/1. The horse acts well round Cheltenham, see his win over c&d in December 2014 and produces his best over this 3 mile trip rather than the shorter 20/21 furlong trips he has been seen over. Add to that we have a jockey upgrade as Sam TD takes the reigns from good claiming jockey Ryan Hatch for the first time since his debut over hurdles and we look to have all the makings of a knocking e/w bet especially at the price.

Maybe it is because he has come into this slightly under the radar, ok so he was beaten a head last time out by Caracci Apache from the Henderson yard but a head can be overturned by Blaklion's form at Cheltenham whereas C.A. is unproven over these undulations. Just look at the price of the likes of Black Hercules who is only proven up to Grade 3 over hurdles (the selection has Grade 1 form, and winning form in Grade 2 races). No More Heroes is a horse I have a lot of time for but I'm not sure why he is 7/1 when he is unproven over 3 miles as of yet, let alone a still 3 miles like Cheltenham presents. No I think Blaklion rates as a great bet at 14/1.

I fancy a father-son victory in the Albert Bartlett

The Gold Cup

One question that you have to ask yourself when assessing this race is can Silviniaco Conti, top rated, the only horse in the field rated 170+ currently and the horse with the best form this season, replicate his flat track form around Cheltenham? If you think so then this is an open shut case as he looks to be the best horse in the race on his preferred track. Arguably he does act round Cheltenham as you don't jump the final fence of a Gold Cup in the lead if you don't act at the track, however I haven't a clue what he was up to after the last and that has to be a concern. Add to that we should get good ground on Friday and Conti would prefer a bit of give and I think we can look for one at an e/w price to take him on with.

The 2014 renewal of the Gold Cup was an absolute thriller

If you fancy an e/w shout I think you can do a lot worse ON GOOD GROUND!!! than last year's winner Lord Windermere. This horse comes into his own at Cheltenham on good ground; whereas many of his rivals would prefer a bit of give in the ground LW definitely prefers decent going and will show his best on it. He has top class course form; RSA winner, Gold Cup winner, you don't get much better than that! He has been targeted at this race by his trainer since winning last year and everything he has done this season is purely warming up to the big one. He has improved for each run, which is encouraging, posting his best performance to day last time out. Davy Russell is plenty happy enough with his mount if you listen to the man at the preview nights he has been doing and I like Lord Windermere to get at least a place so is the e/w selection. I stress good ground, if the ground gets soft do not touch this horse and look instead to my alternative selection later on...

It is hard to pass Holywell over but I'm not sure Ritchie is the best jockey for a horse that is best ridden with a great deal of push from the saddle; Ritchie is a bit more softly softly and I'd be much more keen with the Champ on top. Road to Riches will love the ground but did the Lexus he won fall into his lap slightly? Sam Winner is definitely worth a quid e/w if the rain arrives and the ground turns soft as I could actually see him running on into a place with his endless stamina if they go quick up front, even more likely with Coneygree in the line up. He has run really well so far this season, stays longer than the mother in law, and will surely be ridden for a place here. While lacking the class to win a race like this I could easily see him plugging on late in the day and on soft ground he would be the e/w bet here.

Of the rest Bobs Worth hasn't shown his best for some time now, Djakadam could be a tad too inexperienced for a race of this nature although undoubtedly talented, Carlongford Lough will probably be overbet with the AP factor at play and would also not like any rain, Many Clouds would need softer ground and looks best at Newbury and The Giant Bolster surely isn't good enough?

The selections here Lord Windermere and Sam Winner, both e/w. We look like getting rain at some point on Friday; if this doesn't materialise or isn't excessive Lord Windermere would be a stronger selection, if the heavens do open then Sam Winner comes into play with his bottemless stamina reserves.

Foxhunter Chase

The profession jockeys take a breather here after the Gold Cup and the amature riders get their chance to shine. I must confess Irish P2P form is not my strong point so I'm not too sure where to start here; I'll reach for a few stats to kick me off. Look to horses younger than 11 as 22 of the last 24 winners were all under this age,also last time out winners do very well - responsible for 23 of the last 29 winners.Interestingly Paul Nicholls last 7 runners in this have been beaten, not great news for No Loose Change.  Top rated will be On The Fringe but he has been here before and doesn't quite stay the trip. As a token selection I'm drawn to Paint the Clouds for Warren Greatrex, the stable having enjoyed a World Hurdle victory on Thursday. Paint the Clouds comes here off the back of 4 wins on the trot, each rated higher than the last so looks to be on the up, beating smart horse Quinz last time out and has the services of top amature Sam Waley-Cohen who certainly knows how to win around here. In a race I know little about I'll take Paint the Clouds at 4/1.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

The boys race. Another race where the professional jockeys sit out and let the conditionals have their glory. One I really fancy here is a Grade 1 winner, a horse who has beaten Tell Us More who went on to run well in the Supreme on the opening day, who has won over the distance, can handle a variety of ground conditions and is somehow on a mark of 136 for this race. McKinley is the fancy here and he looks to have an absolutely cracking mark considering form in the book. Trained by the master Willie Mullins who is enjoying another great week I really want to be with McKinley here as I think for a Grade 1 winner he is thrown in. Perhaps that form has been underestimated because he was the outsider of his stable's runners? Still I won't complain and McKinley is the selection in the penultimate race of the 2015 festival.

AP McCoy Grand Annual

One thing is for sure here and that is that Ned Buntline, in the JP colours with AP McCoy on board, will go off a seriously short price! Apart from that I'll return to this race once entries are confirmed but you can back Ned Buntline now and lay off on the day for a free bet as I can see him going off around 3/1, especially if AP has a good week.

Will this man cap his final Cheltenham festival with a winner in the race named after him?

I fancy Next Sensation here for Michael Scudamore. You may member this horse as the one that went off at an absolutely suicidal pace in this race last year only to unsurprisingly not last home. He was beaten less than 2 lengths in the end, absolutely great effort considering his starting pace, and I marked this down as a great run and a winner in waiting ridden with more restraint next time out. Unfortunately Next Sensation hasn't managed to replicate that form since but the trainer has had this horses wind done since his last run (before Christmas) and laid him out for this race. With improvement hopefully to come after that wind op, and ridden a bit more sensibly, I think Next Sensation can give us something to cheer in this final race, the AP McCoy Grand Annual.

Cheltenham Thursday;Day 3 Selections

Thursday Selections

JLT Novices Chase 

I'm taking on Vautour here with Apache Stronghold from the Noel Meade yard. Paul Carberry has put this one up as his ride of the week and I agree that he has a smashing chance over this 2 mile 4 furlong trip. He was outstayed by Don Poli over 3 miles, no shame in that, in the Topaz Chase two runs ago and showed that his best form will come over this trip the last time when beating Valseur Lido and The Tullow Tank, both of whom could re-oppose on Thursday.

Apache Stronghold is the play in the opener

Vautour will go off favourite but the only time he hasn't been given an easy time up front he has made a horrid mistake at a fence. He definitely won't get an easy lead here and I think the question marks remain over his fencing ability under pressure. Ptit Zig comes here off the back of a fall, for all his form is top notch horses coming into the Fez off the back of a fall have a measly 3% strike rate so I have to leave him alone. Valseur Lido is held by my fancy on their latest run and Apache Stronghold at around 6/1 is the bet here.

Pertempts Network Final

 One stat I really like for this race is that in the last 17 years only Fingal Bay the last year has won one of the qualifiers for this race in the run up to actually winning the final at the Festival! Just look back at the replays of some of the qualifiers and you will see numerous examples of top class 'tender' rides!

One of the most tender of rides can be seen on Edeymi last time at Musselburgh, this is worth watching! The only think the jockey that day didn't do was stroke his horse as he was 'delivering' him with a challenge, and a riding enquiry ensued, but the horse was allowed to keep his 4th place and earn him a place in this lineup. Martin loves a good handicap smash up and this horse looks to have masses in hand of his mark of 135, it's just a question over whether there is something else in this field that has more in hand! However we know Edeymi has a huge amount in hand and that's good enough for me to put him up here.

Ryanair Chase

My selection months back was Don Cossack for this race but at the prices now I would not get involved again. This race looks a fairly competitive renewal and all the Don's for this season is going the other way round on soft ground, he fell the only time he has tried Cheltenham and those concerns are enough to swerve him at current prices for all he does look a totally reformed horse this season.
I'll put up a horse who certainly does have Cheltenham form, he won last years JLT, and that is Taquin Du Seuil for the Jonjo O'Neil team at a huge 16/1. Ignore his three runs this season, he doesn't stay 3 miles and the stable was in rank form. Look back at his form last season, top novice form with the beating of many top horses; the late Oscar Whiskey, Uxizandre, Wonderful Charm... Back down in trip but on the stiff Cheltenham track really suits this horse and he is a great e/w price.

Taquin Du Seuil on his way to winning the JLT in 2014

Interestingly Wonderful Charm has had a wind op since his last run and Paul Nicholls rates him as a great e/w bet; he has even had some of the 25/1 himself!

World Hurdle

Unfortunately we go into this race missing last year's 1-2 in More of That and Annie Power. However this does leave this race looking wide open as we look for a new champion. Unfortunately Rock on Ruby is also now confirmed missing as he was a horse who I like for this. 

Will Monksland finally fulfill his huge potential this year?

In his absence I'm putting up Monksland as a knocking e/w bet at 16/1. This horse will absolutely love the good ground we are likely to get at Cheltenham this year; a fragile horse who has been difficult to train it looks like Noel Meade may have managed to get him to the Festival this year and I think he will run really well. On his first run for a year he was only just beaten on the like by Dedigout last time on ground he would have hated, I definitely think on better ground he reverses that form. He had Zaidpour and Briar Hill in behind that day and look at some of his form from 2012, it is top class staying form. I think this is the year Monksland finally gets the chance to show what he has the potential to at Cheltenham and he looks a great e/w price.

Brown Advisory Plate

This is one race the Irish fare poorly in having never had a winner of it! I'm going with Un Ace here from the Kim bailey yard, AP booked and coming here off the back of the famous breathing operation. Kim was on the Sunday Forum recently and didn't rule out this horse finding as much as 5 lengths on his previous running after this tweak as McCoy has commented how it was stopping him breath at the business end of the race. Interestingly McCoy is back on board here, if he didn't think the wind op would bring about improvement I am sure he would have gone elsewhere for his ride!

Un Ace has the Cheltenham form that we so adore in a selection, running a good 2nd to Champagne West last time out on ground he wouldn't have loved and also with this wind issue. They think this horse good enough to warrant running him in the Supreme last year and back on good ground tomorrow, over a distance he has won at, with his breathing tweaked I think that we could see a much improved performance from Un Ace and he is the bet in a tricky handicap.

Kim Muir Handicap Chase

In a race limited to amateur riders I will add a selection here once riders have been finalised as so much depends on the jockey put up on each horse.
Now decs have come through I'm going for Just a Par for the Paul Nicholls team, the trainer booking top jockey in these events Will Biddick. Just a Par does nothing quickly but ran with credit in the RSA chase last year, jumping the Cheltenham fences and finishing a decent 7th. He was also back here in January running a very good 4th in the Betbright chase, only 4 lengths off the winner, so clearly goes well at the course.
It could be that the venture into a race with amature riders can spark some improvement, some horses really like these evens, and we know he can jump and run well round the course. It a race I wouldn't take too strong an opinion on due to the nature of it Just a Par is the e/w selection at 14/1.

Cheltenham Wednesday; Day 2 Selections

Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle

I like Windsor Park for this race, and definitely fancy him to turn around form with Nichols Canyon over this longer trip. I think NC should be going down the Supreme route as he will be best off going from the front over 2 miles; I think if they try and hold him up behind horses to get the trip here his jumping will come under too much pressure with horses around him. The selection has a good amount of flat speed, stays the 20f trip and will improve for the better ground. Dermot Weld is a dab hand at getting his horses right on the day and I fancy Windsor Park to take this opener. 

RSA Chase

This is an open and shut case for me; Don Poli wins.

Don Poli on his way to winning the Topaz

Basically I was hugely disappointed by Kings Palace last time out and don't think his jumping will stand up to the heat of an RSA having done his winning over fences in small field events. Coneygree could well go for the Gold Cup but if he comes here I fear he and Kings Palace could cut each other's throats up front. Also note Nico De Boinville will not be able to claim his 3lbs in this race, effectively leaving Coneygree 3lbs wrong before we start. 

I think The Young Master should go for the 4 miler which he would surely win but I'm not sure he will be quite good enough here. However he is hugely progressive and is hard to totally rule out; he has plenty of big field experience against hardened handicappers and looks a great bet to make the frame. But look at that form Don Poli has; he won arguably the best Novices Chase run so far this season last time out, seemingly all about stamina which will make him perfectly suited by this grueling test. Prior to that he won at Gowran over 20f, showing a nice turn of foot to go with his tenacity. Mullins has him down as a future Gold Cup horse and I am thrilled he is coming here rather than going for the 4 miler. Already rated good enough to have won the last two renewals of this race he is the best horse in this and wins

Coral Cup 

This race gives me another chance to follow Goodwood Mirage off a cliff! However I've been with him all season and he finally looks like getting the good ground I've been waiting for. Jonjo O'Neil has finally come into form having been in rank form earlier in the year which is encouraging as well. Goodwood Mirage definitely has the speed to take a race like this, the step up in trip is interesting and could eek out improvement as well given he is proven over longer trips on the flat. In a race where many have been laid out for we want a big price to go to war with and at 25/1 Goodwood Mirage is the each way fancy

Can the crafty Jonjo land another big handicap punt?

Queen Mother Champion Chase

This renewal is wide open, and who would have thought 2 years ago you could say that with Sprinter Sacre in the field. But he comes into the race with question marks after his well publicised issues with his heart, last years winner Sire De Grugy has had injury problems and also shoe issues according to Gary Moore. We have the hugely improved Dodging Bullets but he needs to prove he can be as good in March as his is in December (look back at previous form, he goes off the boil in Spring however Paul Nicholls is training him differently this year). Add the that the lovable rouge Mr Mole, Mullins sending Champagne Fever back over the minimum distance after not appearing to stay the King George trip at Christmas and Special Tiara, who will go tearing off in front and treating us to a display of bold jumping. A fascinating race for sure!

I'll put up Champagne Fever for this; he is at his best when allowed to go at his own pace, not being held up, and jump for fun, which he will be able to do here. He boasts really good Cheltenham form, 2nd in last year's Arkle (how he didn't win that I'll never know!), 1st in a Supreme and 1st in the Bumper they year before that; the horse loves this place! Ruby Walsh will ride and will get Champagne Fever in a good rhythm, we know his well being is assures and I'm sure he will give us a run for our money.

If back to his imperious best Sprinter Sacre will hose home, but that is a huge IF!

Cross Country Chase

Not my specialist race that's for sure! However, in a race that the big name jockeys usually avoid I think it could be significant that Sam Twiston-Davis takes the plunge in the race to ride Sire Collonges, who I've heard Sam put up as his ride of the meeting! He has form over the fences, his 3rd behind Balthazar King here in November is smart, and also proves he gets the trip. In a race I wouldn't be too keen on getting hugely involved with Sire Collonges is the selection

The Unique Cross Country Fences present a different test

Fred Winter

I fancy Zarib here to break the festival duct of young Dan Skelton, a trainer who definitely will be winning many more races at the Fez in seasons to come. This race is only ten runnings old but there are some stats to look at; 7 of the 10 winners had only run the minimum 3 times over hurdles so they can get a mark for this and all 10 winners had run from February onwards. Zarib fits both of those trends! He won last time out well, finished 3rd round Cheltenham to Peace and Co and Karazak in January and looks to be on a nice mark for this race. Zarib for me.


Champion Bumper

Oh dear oh dear. Another race where I usually would not get involved with! However I know previous winning form is key here with 20 of the last 22 winners having won last time out as well. This race is traditionally farmed by the Irish and I'll go for a rare Gigginstown runner in this race in the shape of General Principle. This horse has won on his sole start on these shores, a flat race at Punchestown at the start of Feb, and I think it interesting that the owners are pointing him towards this race considering they don't usually bother with it. Perhaps they think they have a proper chance of winning it this year and I'll take a chance on their General Principle.