William Hill Casino Club The Big Priced Loser: December 2017

Sunday 24 December 2017

Boxing Day Bonanza!

I rarely get the time to write about the sport of Kings these days but being school holidays I've decided to have a look at some excellent racing on Boxing Day but with a twist....The main focus of this card will be Huntingdon Racecourse as that is where I will be off!

The King George is clearly the best race of the day and I can't see past Might Bite - I think this horse is a superstar. He clearly loves this track, as proved last season when he was romping to glory in the Kauto Star Novices Chase only to tip up at the last, would have given Whisper a right thrashing at Cheltenham but for veering around in the home straight and proved his well being with a lovely reappearance run at Sandown.  5/4 is a bet I think, anything odds against if the ground stays decent should be taken



A few I also like before getting onto Huntingdon

12.00 Wetherby - Petitcoat Tails. Ran some great races in bumpers last season, 2nd and 3rd in listed and grade 2 company respectively. Warren has trained The Nipper and La Bague Au Roi  and he has said she is as good as them at the same stage in their careers so very exciting, should come on for her seasonal reappearance as well.

12.15 Leopardstown - Debuchet. Excellent bumper form, 2nd in the Champion Bumper and the only other horse to beat him was Red Jack on debut. Danny Mullins won on him before as well.

3.30 Leopardstown - The Holy One. Katie Harrington nominated as one to win the Christmas money on the Final furlong Podcast. Very good 2nd the last day in a 4 year old bumper and could take the beating

3.40 Kempton - Kildistart. Runner-up in an Irish point-to-point in March.  He is a fantastically nice horse and was 2nd on first 2 starts , one bumper one hurdle before finally getting off the mark well at Ascot.

Anyway, onto Huntingdon. And thanks for reading, have a Merry Christmas!

Huntingdon




11.40 Amberjam (if he comes here, 1st preference Market Rasen) / Laval Noir e/w

I would like Amberjam if he comes here, a C&D winner, ran well on 1st start for new yard and reverts to hurdles on a much lower mark than his chase mark, however this is his 2nd preference so in his likely absence I will tip Laval Noir. Now Huntingdon is a nice flat track, if you are going to get a trip you should get it here, and Laval Noir steps up in trip here which I find quite encouraging. Sometimes on the easier tracks horses go quicker than they are used to but that won't be a problem for Laval Noir. He won here on debut over  2 miles in a bumper and has been running OK this season over hurdles in Novice races. This looks quite a bit easier than those races and with the step up in trip potentially bringing about improvement I would go for Laval Noir at an e/w price.

12.10 Boreham Bill Win

I'm looking for a horse with speed for this Novice's Hurdle, not something coming from the P2P scene due to the nature of the track, and this leads me to Boreham Bill. Last season he won a good bumper at Market Rasen and then just got beat in the Listed bumper at Cheltenham.  I would be tempted to ignore his last run of the season at this track, he was ridden by a young claimer and just seemed way too keen early and blew his race there. 4th on hurdles debut in a class 3 Novice race and this is a slight step down in class from that debut, with the experience under his belt and Tom Bellamy on who has a good record at the track Boreham Bill is the win bet here.

12.40 Norse light Win

David Dennis the trainer of the selection here, has an excellent 40% strike rate when sending horses to Huntingdon and Norse Light should enhance that record here. He won a handicap hurdle 2 runs ago off the mark he lines up off now, and despite not winning last time I think the key to this horse could be a strong presence in the saddle. Sam Twiston-Davies rode him on that run to victory, and it was a 5 lbs claimer who rode him last time out when 3rd. Now, I'm not saying that claimers are bad riders at all but there is a reason they get that claim, and David Bass should ensure this horse gets the assistance it needs from the saddle off a winnable mark.

1.15 - Postbridge e/w

Now I understand if you think I have lost my marbles tipping at 40/1 outsider in this race but Postbridge is undoubtably a talented horse. Former trained by Warren Greatrex she won twice under his care before swapping stables to her current yard. Last time she was at this track she was facing a stiff task, pitched into a mares only novice chase with three of the runners being rated in the 130’s for hurdling, but she ran well, jumped nicely and finished a decent 4th (of 5 admittedly) but outran her odds. This class of race gives her a much better chance and with 4 places to aim at (so long as the 16 runners remain) she is a decent e/w bet if we catch her on a doing day. Hopefully the first time blinkers aid her cause.

1.50 - Bigpipenotobacee Win

The selection Bigpipenotobacee hasn't been seen for ages, 395 days in fact, so perhaps something has gone wrong but often if that has happened they are spot on for their reappearance as the trainer doesn't want to risk anything. In 2016 he was running in some decent Novice races and I thought he was one that would improve for handicaps and was a chaser in the making. He really caught the eye at cheltenham running over 2 miles where he was staying on at the end and only went down 8 lengths to Thomas Campbell who was won 2 hot handicaps already this year. This trip of 2 and a half miles will be much more to his liking, as will the fences in front of him, and I'd be disappointed if he is not better than this mark of 117 by the end of the season.

2.25 Everlanes e/w, Grageelagh Girl Win

This is a crack of a race, a mares listed bumper, and there are plenty of nice types lining up here. Anthony Honeyball is a trainer with his string in rude health, running at a 31% strike rate in the last fortnight, and it's one of his 2 I go for here in the shape of Everlanes, a horse who made a winning debut at Southwell last month where she triumphed with a bit to spare. The form of that run has yet to be tested but I've already mentioned Tom Bellamy's good course record and with a tongue-tie now on which will help she can go on and run well here. A decent e/w bet

The win bet comes in the shape of Grageelagh Girl who has by far and away the best form in the race. She went down to Posh Trish last time out in a listed race at Cheltenham, where the winner got first run on her and is really highly thought of. Has already won twice yet carries no penalty due to the nature of the race. The trainer also has an excellent record in bumper races and she should take all the beating.

3.00 Clenagh Castle Win

A tricky race I thought, not much in here makes massive appeal, so I've come down on Clenagh Castle who seemed for 3/4 of the race to be showing improved form for Jack Barber before being pulled up after a few mistakes. He was wrong at the weights that day, carrying 4lbs more than he should have, and was also coming off a monster break so should strip fitter here. Nick Schofield takes the ride, a good booking, and I though he could go well.

3.35 - Malachite Win, Little Allstar e/w

This is all about the trainer's record at this track; Nicky Henderson has a 33% strike rate at Huntingdon and must be respected with whatever he sends. Malachite looks to hold a favourite's chance, he was 3rd in a class 4 bumper last time out at Ascot so this represents a drop in class and get's 7lbs from The Big Bite, who carries a penalty for his Lingfield bumper success. Malachite should be up to winning this based on form shown so far.

If you don't want to take such a short price then an e/w bet on Little Allstar could be for you. He was 3rd in an Irish point to point but the winner that day has won on rules debut so that could have been a decent race. he gets a tongue-tie on for his rules debut and at 33/1 could be a decent e/w interest

Selections 

11.40 Amberjam (if he comes here, 1st preference Market Rasen) / Laval Noir e/w
12.10 Boreham Bill Win
12.40 Norse light Win
1.15 - Postbridge e/w
1.50 - Bigpipenotobacee Win
2.25 Everlanes e/w, Grageelagh Girl Win
3.00 Clenagh Castle Win
3.35 - Malachite Win, Little Allstar e/w

Just for good measure

Kempton
1.20 Wenyerreadyfreddie
1.55 Ballyoptic
3.05 Might Bite Charlton 
3.40 Kildisart 

Leopardstown
12.15 Debuchet
12.45 Quick Grabim
2.20 Death Duty
3.30 The Holy One

Wetherby
12.00 Petticoat Tails
1.40 Grey Gold
2.10 Actinpieces