Boxing Day Bonanza!

I rarely get the time to write about the sport of Kings these days but being school holidays I've decided to have a look at some excellent racing on Boxing Day but with a twist....The main focus of this card will be Huntingdon Racecourse as that is where I will be off!

The King George is clearly the best race of the day and I can't see past Might Bite - I think this horse is a superstar. He clearly loves this track, as proved last season when he was romping to glory in the Kauto Star Novices Chase only to tip up at the last, would have given Whisper a right thrashing at Cheltenham but for veering around in the home straight and proved his well being with a lovely reappearance run at Sandown.  5/4 is a bet I think, anything odds against if the ground stays decent should be taken

A few I also like before getting onto Huntingdon

12.00 Wetherby - Petitcoat Tails. Ran some great races in bumpers last season, 2nd and 3rd in listed and grade 2 company respectively. Warren has trained The Nipper and La Bague Au Roi  and he has said she is as good as them at the same stage in their careers so very exciting, should come on for her seasonal reappearance as well.

12.15 Leopardstown - Debuchet. Excellent bumper form, 2nd in the Champion Bumper and the only other horse to beat him was Red Jack on debut. Danny Mullins won on him before as well.

3.30 Leopardstown - The Holy One. Katie Harrington nominated as one to win the Christmas money on the Final furlong Podcast. Very good 2nd the last day in a 4 year old bumper and could take the beating

3.40 Kempton - Kildistart. Runner-up in an Irish point-to-point in March.  He is a fantastically nice horse and was 2nd on first 2 starts , one bumper one hurdle before finally getting off the mark well at Ascot.

Anyway, onto Huntingdon. And thanks for reading, have a Merry Christmas!

Huntingdon

11.40 Amberjam (if he comes here, 1st preference Market Rasen) / Laval Noir e/w

I would like Amberjam if he comes here, a C&D winner, ran well on 1st start for new yard and reverts to hurdles on a much lower mark than his chase mark, however this is his 2nd preference so in his likely absence I will tip Laval Noir. Now Huntingdon is a nice flat track, if you are going to get a trip you should get it here, and Laval Noir steps up in trip here which I find quite encouraging. Sometimes on the easier tracks horses go quicker than they are used to but that won't be a problem for Laval Noir. He won here on debut over  2 miles in a bumper and has been running OK this season over hurdles in Novice races. This looks quite a bit easier than those races and with the step up in trip potentially bringing about improvement I would go for Laval Noir at an e/w price.

12.10 Boreham Bill Win

I'm looking for a horse with speed for this Novice's Hurdle, not something coming from the P2P scene due to the nature of the track, and this leads me to Boreham Bill. Last season he won a good bumper at Market Rasen and then just got beat in the Listed bumper at Cheltenham.  I would be tempted to ignore his last run of the season at this track, he was ridden by a young claimer and just seemed way too keen early and blew his race there. 4th on hurdles debut in a class 3 Novice race and this is a slight step down in class from that debut, with the experience under his belt and Tom Bellamy on who has a good record at the track Boreham Bill is the win bet here.

12.40 Norse light Win

David Dennis the trainer of the selection here, has an excellent 40% strike rate when sending horses to Huntingdon and Norse Light should enhance that record here. He won a handicap hurdle 2 runs ago off the mark he lines up off now, and despite not winning last time I think the key to this horse could be a strong presence in the saddle. Sam Twiston-Davies rode him on that run to victory, and it was a 5 lbs claimer who rode him last time out when 3rd. Now, I'm not saying that claimers are bad riders at all but there is a reason they get that claim, and David Bass should ensure this horse gets the assistance it needs from the saddle off a winnable mark.

1.15 - Postbridge e/w

Now I understand if you think I have lost my marbles tipping at 40/1 outsider in this race but Postbridge is undoubtably a talented horse. Former trained by Warren Greatrex she won twice under his care before swapping stables to her current yard. Last time she was at this track she was facing a stiff task, pitched into a mares only novice chase with three of the runners being rated in the 130’s for hurdling, but she ran well, jumped nicely and finished a decent 4th (of 5 admittedly) but outran her odds. This class of race gives her a much better chance and with 4 places to aim at (so long as the 16 runners remain) she is a decent e/w bet if we catch her on a doing day. Hopefully the first time blinkers aid her cause.

1.50 - Bigpipenotobacee Win

The selection Bigpipenotobacee hasn't been seen for ages, 395 days in fact, so perhaps something has gone wrong but often if that has happened they are spot on for their reappearance as the trainer doesn't want to risk anything. In 2016 he was running in some decent Novice races and I thought he was one that would improve for handicaps and was a chaser in the making. He really caught the eye at cheltenham running over 2 miles where he was staying on at the end and only went down 8 lengths to Thomas Campbell who was won 2 hot handicaps already this year. This trip of 2 and a half miles will be much more to his liking, as will the fences in front of him, and I'd be disappointed if he is not better than this mark of 117 by the end of the season.

2.25 Everlanes e/w, Grageelagh Girl Win

This is a crack of a race, a mares listed bumper, and there are plenty of nice types lining up here. Anthony Honeyball is a trainer with his string in rude health, running at a 31% strike rate in the last fortnight, and it's one of his 2 I go for here in the shape of Everlanes, a horse who made a winning debut at Southwell last month where she triumphed with a bit to spare. The form of that run has yet to be tested but I've already mentioned Tom Bellamy's good course record and with a tongue-tie now on which will help she can go on and run well here. A decent e/w bet

The win bet comes in the shape of Grageelagh Girl who has by far and away the best form in the race. She went down to Posh Trish last time out in a listed race at Cheltenham, where the winner got first run on her and is really highly thought of. Has already won twice yet carries no penalty due to the nature of the race. The trainer also has an excellent record in bumper races and she should take all the beating.

3.00 Clenagh Castle Win

A tricky race I thought, not much in here makes massive appeal, so I've come down on Clenagh Castle who seemed for 3/4 of the race to be showing improved form for Jack Barber before being pulled up after a few mistakes. He was wrong at the weights that day, carrying 4lbs more than he should have, and was also coming off a monster break so should strip fitter here. Nick Schofield takes the ride, a good booking, and I though he could go well.

3.35 - Malachite Win, Little Allstar e/w

This is all about the trainer's record at this track; Nicky Henderson has a 33% strike rate at Huntingdon and must be respected with whatever he sends. Malachite looks to hold a favourite's chance, he was 3rd in a class 4 bumper last time out at Ascot so this represents a drop in class and get's 7lbs from The Big Bite, who carries a penalty for his Lingfield bumper success. Malachite should be up to winning this based on form shown so far.

If you don't want to take such a short price then an e/w bet on Little Allstar could be for you. He was 3rd in an Irish point to point but the winner that day has won on rules debut so that could have been a decent race. he gets a tongue-tie on for his rules debut and at 33/1 could be a decent e/w interest

Selections 

11.40 Amberjam (if he comes here, 1st preference Market Rasen) / Laval Noir e/w
12.10 Boreham Bill Win
12.40 Norse light Win
1.15 - Postbridge e/w
1.50 - Bigpipenotobacee Win
2.25 Everlanes e/w, Grageelagh Girl Win
3.00 Clenagh Castle Win
3.35 - Malachite Win, Little Allstar e/w

Just for good measure

Kempton
1.20 Wenyerreadyfreddie
1.55 Ballyoptic
3.05 Might Bite Charlton 
3.40 Kildisart 

Leopardstown
12.15 Debuchet
12.45 Quick Grabim
2.20 Death Duty
3.30 The Holy One

Wetherby
12.00 Petticoat Tails
1.40 Grey Gold
2.10 Actinpieces

Arc Day at Chantilly

I love this day of racing, there are some absolutely cracking races and with the Arc the biggest of them all. This is something every racing fan out there will be looking forward too in my opinion, the field this year is immensely strong, so I've previewed the big race and also some of the supporting card. And on we go!

Chantilly Racecourse; absolutely stunning

1.10 

The horse I want to be with here is Polydream, a twice raced horse trained in France under the watchful eye of Freddy Head. She is unbeaten so far, running over 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs, and the form of her last race is really stacking up. That was the day she beat a horse called Laurens so easily, with the jockey looking up at the big screen constantly,  and that horse has since won a grade 2 at Doncaster. Huge chance here and acts with a bit of cut in the ground, a really exciting horse.

1.45

I find it really interesting that Aidan O'Brien pitches Happily in here against the boys rather than keeping her against her own sex and he must think she is capable of giving them a real race, especially given the weight she will receive from them. A good winner last time out under the capable Donnacha O'Brien, Ryan Moore steps in for the ride here and I think she will appreciate the step up a furlong after that Group 1 win last time. That's probably the best form on offer going into the race, and in the receipt of 4 lbs from her rivals she must have a cracking chance.

3.05 - Prix de l'Arc Du Triumphe

One of my favourite Arc winners, the amazing Treve

Now I think this is probably more a bet looking at getting into a place rather than the win but I really think Order of St George is absolutely rock solid here. He seems better for being ridden more aggressively and comes into this race in better form than last year, where he managed to be placed.
His running style should be suited to the race, where we often get a lot of hard luck stories, and his middle of the road draw in 9 will be ideal to bounce out, sit handy and use his assured stamina. Forecast soft ground will not phase this horse, where as the likes of 2nd fav Ulysses will not like that.

I don't really think Ulysses's style of running will suit, he could easily find a few hard luck stories trying to thread his way through and be produced right at the end. Winter is interesting but 8/1 is short enough considering the stamina concerns. Clearly Enable is the most likely winner, but even money about a 3 year old filly who has had a seriously tough campaign and could easily be over the top? No thanks! Capri, the St Leger winner, will be trying to become the first horse to double up in Leger/Arc in many a year which concerns me, and he has a horror draw on the outside.


There are horses as huge prices that could outrun their price, but given I'm not a huge fan of Ulysses in this particular race, Winter has stamina concerns and Enable is even money I am taking a punt that Order of St George will come in the top 4 at the very least, and seems really well placed to take advantage if those right at the top of the market come undone by the ground, trip or luck in running.

4.35

I'm going to side with Battash here because I was so impressed with his win at Sandown 2 runs ago, where he had the likes of Marsha and Profitable in behind his bundle of pure speed. Charlie Hills has always rated him as a seriously fast horse, in fact last year he said he was his fastest, and this season he seems to be fulfilling his trainer's hopes for him. York last time was not his running, but he will not the first, or even the best to be unbalanced on the Knavesmire. IF, and that is a big IF, he can handle the preliminaries better this time (I believe they are to saddle him down at the start) then he has a massive chance as he is in my opinion the fastest horse in this race.

5.15

I'm going to end the day with a punt at a price on So Beloved, a horse with plenty of form on soft. The form of his run last time out took a big boost on Saturday with the winner coming out and winning a big sprint at Haydock. He needs a good it of pace to the race if he is going to run well but we should get that with a field of ten and some fast horses here. at 33/1 he rates a decent e/w bet to end the day.

Thanks for reading and enjoy Arc day

Juddmonte Day at York Races

A smashing opening day to the York Ebor Festival, my only wish being a single extra runner in the Juddmonte and Voltigeur for those each way bets! However, we have one of the most intriguing races of the year in my opinion in the Juddmonte with cases to be made for most of the field; a fantastic way to show off the heart of Yorkshire racing. And onwards with the selections we go

1.55 Symphony Group Handicap 

We kick off the meeting with a tricky little sprint handicap and I was quite interested here in Edward Lewis, especially with the David O'Meara yard coming back into form. Edward Lewis has run some really good races this year, and with a bit more luck in running would no doubt have won one. He most caught my eye during the fast and furious Epsom Dash, where he got no luck in the run and finished hard on the bridle - impressive given how quick that 5 furlongs is. For me, that bodes very well for his chances here as York is also a tremendously quick track. He is drawn low, which looks encouraging given in last month’s SkyBet Dash Handicap – the last big-field sprint to be run at York , the winner  Flying Pursuit was drawn one, the second was drawn two and the third was berthed in four. Edward Lewis pitches up in 5, has the services of stable jockey Danny Tudhope and at around 9/1 looks a very nice e/w bet in the opener.


2.25 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3)


Now, bear with me here because the favourite for this race, Dee Ex Bee, looks to have a fantastic chance given how impressive he was at Goodwood on debut. However, with these two year olds you never know how they will progress from run to run, will they come forwards or go backwards and will they handle the ground. So I'm going for a horse at a very big price in Chief Justice of Yorkshire trainer Richard O'Fahey. This horse was a big eye catcher on debut at Pontefract a few weeks ago. He had an awful start, fell out of the stalls, took the longest possible route round the bend and was absolutely green as grass. However, keep watching and you see he ran on really well to get second place in the end. He was incredibly naive and green but really quite fast and if he comes on for that debut & learns from it he could certainly outrun his price of 25/1. Get on him each way

3.00 Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2)

A good looking race but not one I have a massive opinion on. The favourite Cracksman should win on what we have seen so far but I don't really like betting at odds on at York. You seem to get a few strange results and upsets, York form is quite important and we do not know if John Gosden's colt will handle it. At the price, I can leave him alone and just watch this one.

3.35 Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1)

Frankel. one of the most impressive winners of this race

In the big race on day 1, the Juddmonte, I completely understand why Barney Roy is fav & Churchill 2nd fav as the sexy, classic generation and improving 3 year olds. However, I can't help thinking Ulysses should be favourite at the moment. He looks a classic Sir Michael Stoute horse, one that was good at three but so much better at four. He has by far the best form in the book over this 10 furlong trip, his cruising speed is just utterly ridiculous and he has already beaten both Barney Roy and Churchill giving them 9 lbs in the Coral Eclipse, so while they may improve with age Ulysses only has to give them 7 lbs now.

Watching his last race back over 12 furlongs when beaten by Enable, you cannot fail to be impressed with just how well he travelled over 12 furlongs. No shame to lose to her, but it is clear 10 furlongs is his trip, where he can utilise that cruising speed. Barney Roy may improve for the york track, but I can't help feel connections should have entered a pacemaker there, whist if Churchill was the one for Aiden O'Brien why have they entered Cliffs of Moher? I think the current price on Ulysses is wrong and at current prices he is the value in the race.

Shutter Speed is very interesting to me given the 3 year old and fillies allowance she gets; if this turns into a speed race with little pace that will suit her more, but with only 2 places on offer now for the e/w bet I think win only is the only way to play this race and Ulysses at 7/2 looks the win only value for me. If you can bet with a firm giving 3 places as an enhancement Shutter Speed must enter calculations.


4.15 Fine Equinity Handicap 

A staying handicap here and the one I have been following all season is Magic Circle. He entered my notebook at Chester earlier in the year. Now, Magic Circle is a big gelding so wouldn’t be the most obvious candidate for the tight turns of Chester. This makes his 5th place in the Chester Cup a very decent run, especially considering his poor draw. He stayed on well but had a hopeless task from his position and I liked what I saw. I think the ground was a bit too firm at Ascot the last day, so back to a big, galloping track where he can really use his stride, on good, safe racing ground Magic Circle can run a big race.


4.50 Betway Nursery 

Richard Fahey has won this race 3 times in the last 5 years so I quite want to be with one of his here, and even though he wouldn't look number 1 based on jockey bookings, Zap is the play here. I value York form at York, so the fact Fahey pitched him in over C&D here on debut, which he won, makes it seem like this may have been the plan from the start. Ran a very good 3rd place at Epsom in a decent race the following time, a good run, and whilst we have to forgive his latest start I am always willing to forgive 1 bad run from a horse. Adam McNamara is a good young jockey, great value for his 3lbs claim, and back at the scene of his debut success I think Zap can go close in the finale

Thanks for reading and best of luck

Selections

1.55 Edward Lewis
2.25 Chief Justice
3.00 No Bet
3.35 Uylsses
4.15 Magic Circle
4.50 Zap

Aintree Grand National Day

The Grand National Blog

30 fences and 4 miles 514 yards...The Grand National

It's here; the race that almost stops Great Britain. It's when the once a year punters are out in force, your Nan actively encourages you to gamble and the RSPCA get ready for a big one. The Aintree Grand National. 4 miles 514 yards, 30 fences, 40 runners, lets be having you! There is a good supporting card as well so without further ado lets get involved in Day 3 of the Aintree Festival, starting with the big one

Aintree Grand National.

Last Year's Winner Rule the World

Well, as the SP's of previous winners show (33/1, 25/1, 25/1, 66/1, 33/1, 14/1, 10/1, 100/1!!!) you literally cannot rule anything out of this race. Don't be put off if you fancy one at a right price and just have a go! I like Just a Par (50/1)... He is a classy horse which you need for this race. One stat I found was that the last 12 winners of the Grand National had all won a race at least at Class 2 level before winning the big one. Well, Just a Par has winning form at Class 1 level over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Sandown, which is a testing track and really puts pressure on stamina. I was actually at the track that day and the horse flew home, I don't think stamina will be a problem here. He actually ran in the race last year, was 15th but I feel the ground was possibly too soft, still encouraging he got round. The good surface on offer this week should be much more to his liking and he rates a decent first horse.

However, in a 40 runner field I like to give myself a few darts. Stellar Notion (66/1) is my 2nd horse. He sits nicely on 10-9, is ridden by last years winning rider Danny Mullins, trained by Henry De-Bromhead who is a cracking trainer of steeplechasers and was a staying on 2nd last time out by Tiger Roll, who went on to win the 4 miler at Cheltenham. He will be ridden handy, hopefully avoiding trouble, should jump round and if he stays will definitely outrun his price.


Lastly, one at the head of the market would be The Young Master who missed the race last year to wait for this year's renewal and that could be a masterstroke by his trainer, Neil Mulholland. Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen, a jockey with an excellent record over these fences, a lover of good ground and coming here off the back of a decent prep run at Cheltenham his weight of 10-13 could prove lenient. He has plenty of winning form over 3 mile trips and shapes as if he will stay, is a nice jumper and at 20/1 is the third selection in the race

And onto the supporting card...

The Opening Handicap Hurdle

A big field, no easing into things here, and I'm going for an old lad here. He has plenty of excellent form, including Grade 1 winning form at this track, and ran in the World Hurdle, placing 7th last time out - Zarkandar. He was winning a grade 2 as recently as January this year, has a useful jockey claiming 7lbs and will love this ground and return to Aintree. If he retains his class he is still a very good horse and Paul Nicholls will have him primed for this, such is his desire to retain the Champion Trainer title. At around 20/1 the 10 year old is the e/w bet for the opener.

Zarkandar, the selection in race 1

Mersey Novices' Hurdle 

I really like one in here in Captain Forez, a horse that has been saved for this since his last run in December (unlike market leader Finian's Oscar who had to miss Cheltenham due to injury and there must be a few question marks over his fitness here). The selection is said to have come on massively since his last run, and Harry Skelton has been quoted as saying this horse is THE horse he has been looking forward too as Aintree. I can see him being primed for this, appreciating the trip and ground and running a really big race. You can bet him e/w at 11/1, a very fair price.

Maghull Novices' Chase

Another Paul Nicholls horse for me here in Politologue, who comes here off the back of a 4th place in the JLT behind the very impressive Yorkhill. But the key to this horse is that I hope he will be ridden more forcefully back down to this 2 mile trip, he was held up at Cheltenham over a longer trip and I don't believe that is the way to ride this horse. Fire him off with a positive ride, let him use his beautiful jumping, put Charbel under pressure (he fell at Cheltenham don't forget) and at around 5/1 he looks the value in the market. Prior to Cheltenham he had won 4 of his 5 races, only narrowly going down to Waiting Patiently in his sole defeat, and I think he can resume his progression in this Grade 1 race.


3 mile Handicap Hurdle

I want to be with Sizing Codelco here to make up for his flop of a run at Cheltenham in the Brown Advisory plate. Before Cheltenham this horse was being tipped up everywhere but just didn't run his race at all. I can't believe that was his true running, perhaps he doesn't actually like Cheltenham given he was pulled up in his previous visit to the track, finished 8th of 9 the time before and unseated rider the time before that, and I am willing to give him another chance back up in trip on real good ground. This flatter track should really give him the chance to stay this trip and he looks big if you can forgive his Cheltenham flop at 22/1, again e/w

Stayers Hurdle

Yanworth will head the market for this race but he looked so average at Cheltenham so I can't be having him, even if the step up in trip should suit. Cole Harden will give you a run for your money from the front but I think will find one too good again and that one this time could be Supasundae, the winner of the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. He is young, up and coming and arrives here in great form for a trainer who can do no wrong this season. He has actually beaten Yanworth in a bumper a few years ago, and if he can improve again for the step up in trip could be quite an exciting horse for next year and definitely good enough to win this.

Closing Race Handicap Hurdle for Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders

Well if you are looking for a bet to round off a lucky meeting, or make up for prior losses, then this isn't an easy one! Cousin Oscar is my selection for Donal McCain, a trainer with a real affinity for this meeting so don't be surprised if this has been the plan all season. Cousin Oscar has won his last 2 races at a lowly level but has gained some good experience, is only 5 so should still be improving and gets some good assistance from the saddle as James Cowley has ridden 31 winners in his career to date. 

Grand National Day Selections (All each way)

1.45 Zarkandar  
2.25 Captain Forez 
3.00 Politologue  
3.40 Sizing Codelco  
4.00 Supasundae 
5.15 Just a Par, Stellar Notion, The Young Master
6.15 Cousin Oscar  

Day 1 of Aintree...Small fields galore

Day 1 at Aintree and there are a right few races, some good Grade 1 action albeit not the most friendly e/w punting card. A lot of the races, well the first 4 anyway, are small fields. Indeed, with the Foxhunters coming in at 29 runners it has more runners than the first 4 races combined! But I've got a few selections and I'll detail those here, hopefully we can find some form ahead of the Grand National

Manifesto Novice's Chase

A 6 runner field to start us off, with a hot favourite in Top Notch, last seen chasing home Yorkhill in the JLT at Cheltenham. And you could argue if Yorkhill had turned up here he would be 3's on, therefore Top Notch is value. I think for sure he is the most likely winner, but at 6/5 I've my doubts about taking such a price, notably his long season. I'll look for something a bit fresher to take him on and will go for Flying Angel e/w, who was fairly fancied for the JLT himself but was pretty unlucky in running with fallers in front of him at vital times - watch it back he was basically brought to a standstill. Nigel Twiston-Davies is in better form than the rancid run he'd had prior to Cheltenham, having notched a few winners in recent times, and good ground will be fine. Could easily get us a little place here, or just bet him smaller stakes win only as an interest.

Juvenile Hurdle

This race does have a better e/w shape to it, but you are probably playing for 2nd and 3rd place behind hot fav, and supremely impressive Cheltenham winner Defi Du Seuil. Forth Bridge is the e/w selection here at around 16/1. He skipped Cheltenham so comes here fresh, has won his last 2 races including beating Project Bluebook (ran well in the Fred Winter) and will love this track and ground looking back at his form. With bookies paying 1/5 the odds first 3 you are getting 16/5 about Forth Bridge getting a place and that is more than fair given Divin Bear and Flying Tiger are his only real opposition for those places and they both come here off the back of a tough race in the Fred Winter.

The Bowl

Oh dear. This race is vile. 7 runners, 2 places e/w, the head of the market dominated by Cue Card (fell when beaten at Cheltenham) and Empire of Dirt (bit worried by the Gordon Elliott stable form given his price). But with only 2 places to aim at I'm really not keen on betting e/w. So I'll just put up 2 win only bets. 1 is the aforementioned Empire of Dirt who will definitely appreciate the step up back in trip, should be fine with the ground and the form of his Irish Gold Cup 2nd doesn't look too bad now with the winner since winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I'm held back from making him the only bet because Elliott seems to have hit a bit of a lull with his winners since Cheltenham though, so I'll throw another dart with Tea for Two, who Lizzie Kelly fell off early on in the Gold Cup thus avoiding any kind of hard race. I'd much rather this race be right handed when tipping this horse, but he is talented, a bit more of an up and comer as opposed to veterans Cue Card and Sinviniaco Conti, ground and trip fine, Williams in decent form and looks a large price at 16/1. Small stakes, 2 runners against the field rather than 1 e/w bet.

Aintree Hurdle

Again, dominated by Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D'Air so we look at an e/w angle. And again, there are only 6 runners so we only get 2 places. For me I'd just take My Tent or Yours without the favourite. The Tent comes here off a cracking run at Cheltenham, seems to be settling better this year which will give him more of a chance of staying this extended trip, is a course winner and was 2nd in this race to Annie Power last year. The New One should run his race, and is the main danger to my selection but we did beat him nicely at Cheltenham. I can't have Identity Thief, his confidence must be shot to pieces after his runs over fences this year, and the other 2 are not of the Tent's class. If Coleman can give this another good ride I think he can make it a JP 1-2 in the race.

Foxhunters

Not a race I know a huge amount about I confess. But Black Thunder would be a tentative e/w bet here under a very good jockey over these fences in Sam Waley-Cohen. He was pulled up at Cheltenham but I would hope a return to Aintree, he has run OK here before, could spark some improvement and he could be an e/w bet in a 29 runner field.

Red Rum Handicap

The last race I have a selection in, and it is my bet of the day at Aintree. Annoyingly the race only has 15 runners, but some bookies are paying 4 places still, so I put up Double W's here. it was quietly fancied before Cheltenham and was leading round the home turn but got found out by the 2 mile 4 trip and Cheltenham hill. Back down to 2 miles, on an easier track, can't see it out the first 4 and if you do bet with a bookie who pays 4 places looks a knocking e/w bet.

Day 1 Aintree

1.45 Flying Angel e/w
2.20 Forth Bridge e/w
2.50 Empire of Dirt and Tea for Two win only, split stakes
3.25 My Tent or Yours without the fav
4.00 Black Thunder e/w
4.40 Double W's e/w

Grand National...Early selection!

Ok, nice and early here. And it's barely worth a blog, because I'm just posting my early thoughts on my fancy for the race. For sure I'll have other bets in the race, but one horse I am really keen on is currently available at 50/1 and definitely makes the line up. And that horse is Just a Par...

Just A Par is miles too big a price at 50/1 in my opinion for the Grand National.  He is a classy horse which you need for this race. One stat I found was that the last 12 winners of the Grand National had all won a race at least at Class 2 level before winning the big one. Well, Just a Par has winning form at Class 1 level over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Sandown, which is a testing track and really puts pressure on stamina. I was actually at the track that day and the horse flew home, I don't think stamina will be a problem here.

He actually ran in the race last year, was 15th but I feel the ground was possibly too soft, still encouraging he got round. The good surface on offer this week should be much more to his liking and he comes here off the back of a win in early March, which is encouraging and ensures he will make the line up.

Harry Cobden is a good jockey who takes the ride and at 50/1 he is worth an e/w bet for sure .

I've backed him at 40/1 with betvictor for the 6 places e/w, because other bookies will only give 4 or 5 at a push so sightly shorter odds worth it for the 6 places.

Come on Just a Par!

Just A Par (nearest) in The bet365 Gold Cup Chase which he won

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday Cheltenham

Unfortunately, or probably fortunately for my wallet, I don't blog full time so have had to condense my fancies for the remaining days of Cheltenham into one post. So here we go...

Neptune Novices Hurdle

Unless Let's Dance goes for this, with the absence of Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf will be a fairly strong favourite. He is unbeaten in 4 races, including a super impressive win the last day at Haydock, and boasts an impressive blend of speed and stamina. However, Willoughby Court, a winner of his last 2 races over this distance, comes here with stable confidence reportedly very high and is a much more backable 12/1. Take him e/w


Cross Country

The classy horse in this race is Cause of Clauses, and he is the selection. He has past form at Cheltenham, albeit not over these unique fences, but last year he did win the Kim Muir under Jamie Codd, who will take the ride here. An excellent booking, and Cause of Clauses has reportedly schooled over these type of fences recently. He has plenty of stamina under his bonnet, and coupled with his classy pedigree (he has been contesting much better races than this) he is the selection to overcome Cantlow, the favourite who does not always put it all in at the finish.

Fred Winter

Here I like the chances of Project Bluebook who is trained by John Quinn, a master trainer of these young juvenile hurdlers. I believe Quinn had earmarked this one fro the Triumph but his lenient mark has tempted him down the handicap route and we should take the hint. Brian Hughes gave him a shocker of a ride last time out, and he has admitted as much on the preview circuit, but prior to that he has been upwardly mobile and at least that defeat has ensured his mark is more fair. Brian gets a great chance to make amends and I expect the top jockey in the North to give the selection a far better ride this time! Overpriced as an e/w chance

Stayers Hurdle

I love Jezki for this race, and I am more than willing to take on one of the bankers of the festival here. Jezki is pure class, he has won a Champion hurdle but looking at his breeding he really should appreciate this 3 mile test, especially considering his advancing years. Last time out the ground was shocking bad, and he may well have bounced, so ignore that and focus on the very impressive comeback the time before. He has the speed to sit in and pounce if the race gets tactical, the stamina (he is a 3 mile winner already) if it is an out and out test and at 7/1 he looks an e/w steal.

Brown Advisory Plate

Diamond King heads the market having won the Coral Cup at the fez last year off a 1 lbs lower mark. However, he is well short enough and I'll put up another who has been heavily tipped on the preview circuit in Sizing Codelco. He hasn't been a massive success so far this year, but he did only narrowly go down to Top Notch, fancied for the JLT 2 runs ago before finding 26 furlongs much to far a trip last time out. He has since been put away and his handicap mark protected for this race, and is actually 1 lbs lower than he started the season. Sneaky from Mr Tizzard and I expect him to make the frame.

Mares Novice

If Lets Dance turns up here have the lot on. She is an absolute class apart and would have given the boys a race if she were allowed to take her chance in the Neptune. But with trip fine and this opposition not a patch on her take Lets Dance to make it 5 wins on the bounce. And Willie Mullins' love for these Mares only races will grow even more.

Kim Muir

I really like one here, and that horse is Mal Dini. A winner here last year, important festival form, he has not been in the same form this season. BUT.....The tongue-tie he wore to victory in the Pertemps Final last season hasn't been seen this season but is crucially seen now, and he also has not had some good ground which he likes. Again he gets his ground. For me has been crying out for a step up in trip....which also arrives here. Excellent jockey booking, this really looks like a plan coming together for me. Awfully tempting

Triumph Hurdle

I can see the Irish kicking off Gold Cup day with a winner in the shape of the Gordon Elliott trained Mega Fortune, fresh off the back of a win last time out when Elliott finally gave up trying to get him a handicap mark for the Fred Winter. We saw just how much talent this horse has when winning at Leopardstown last time out, showing stamina that will prove crucial here and reversing form with Bapaume. This race is usually run at a fair lick, and I can see Mega Fortune staying on up the hill and winning this.

Gold Cup

This is still a really interesting race, even without Thistlecrack. Cue Card will bring the house down if he wins where as Native River stays as long as the mother-in-law at your house. But the one I actually fancy is the runner up in the previous 2 Gold Cups in Djakadam. He has been beat by Coneygree and Don Cossack in the blue riband event, so clearly loves the track, trip and test the Gold Cup throws up, and for my money there is nothing that good in the race this year. Djakadam will be ridden by the masterful Ruby Walsh, is the subject of hugely positive vibes at home and looks set to finally give Willie Mullins the Gold Cup he craves. A smashing bet at 4/1, cannot see him out the frame. People will point to his 2 defeats the last twice, but he has come to the Gold Cup a very young horse, grown up in it and now finally I think it is his time to shine.

Grand Annual

I'm putting up a former Champion Chase winner who is tumbling down the weights and looks on a very attractive mark. Dodging Bullets is my selection for the final race of the festival - he goes well at Cheltenham, will love this ferociously run 2 miles and I think with these conditions in his favour, and his confidence coming back according to Sam Twiston-Davis, he can bounce back to form and send us packing with a winner.