This Saturday saw the last real day of Cheltenham trials before the festival in March and one horse who certainly used this day to advertise his claims of festival glory was Paul Nicholl's Irving. This smart hurdler was hammered in the betting before his appearance in the Dovecote hurdle and market support was 100% justified as Irving routed the field to claim this grade 2 in impressive style. He thrashed fellow Supreme hopeful First Mohican, who was impressive on his debut last time out but was firmly put in his place here, and now only Willie Mullin's Vautour is ahead of Irving in the betting for the festival opener. As this was by far and away the most impressive performance of the day in relation to Cheltenham betting I though I would use this blog to take a closer look at the Festival opener, the Skybet Supreme Novices Hurdle, and hopefully provide some clues which you can use in your own analysis of the race.
One thing that springs to mind, well two things really, when looking at backing favourites in this race - Dunguib and Cue Card. Both short priced favourites, both beaten in the race! In fact only 3 of the last 18 runners to have been sent off at 3/1 or shorter in the betting for the Supreme have justified their price with the rest being beaten so definitely bear this in mind before steaming into that short-priced 'sure thing' on Tuesday 11th March. This could be due to punters being over-eager to start the festival off on a winning note, thus the favourite in this race gets backed blindly by many, or perhaps the fact that not that many of the field have had the chance to run to a really high level of form before the festival, so those that have been in the right races and run the big figures are more easily noticeable as their form stands out more, who knows. I don't think we will get a really short favourite this year as we have two strong horses at the head of the market in Vautour and Irving and I can't see one of those being backed and the other not. Vautour has some really strong form in the book, including the beating of The Tullow Tank last time out (although I don't think TTT gave his running there and for some reason Ruby was allowed to completely dictate the race on Vautour), and given connections as well it isn't a surprise to see this one head the market. However the Mullin's yard also have another very smart one in here in the shape of Wicklow Brave, who going from what you hear at the various Cheltenham Preview nights is as fancied, if not more so, as Vautour for this race. Patrick Mullins put him us as his idea of the Supreme winner at a recent preview at Punchestown and although it would be foolish to back exclusively on this basis the confidence behind Wicklow Brave is enough to put me off Vautour at his current price. While impressive when beating TTT at Leopardstown earlier this month Ruby was allowed to control the race from the front, something he won't get to do at Cheltenham, and I really feel he stole the race which has led to his artificially short price here. I'd rather be on Irving at the current prices, especially as Paul Nicholl's said he had left something to work on with this one before his Kempton run. The stable also feel he will improve for better ground which we will hopefully see at Cheltenham and the way he put the Dovecote to bed was so impressive, especially as it came on the back of a solidly run race. If I was going to back one of the pair at the head of the market it would be Irving.
Looking at the bigger prices in the betting one I quite like at the currently available 20/1 is The Liquidator. David Pipe's horse is 20/1 because he ran poorly last time out on very testing ground at Kempton when sent off favourite for the Tolworth hurdle, where he finished 5th behind winner Royal Boy and also Josses Hill who trades at around 10/1 for the Supreme. However I look back in the Liquidator's form and see previous hurdles form at Cheltenham as well as a smart run to finish 4th in last seasons Bumper so he clearly handles the track and the big occasion. Key to this horse, and the reasons I can forgive his performance last time out, is the ground. I think the Liquidator is a much better horse on better ground. The way he weakened in the Tolworth made me think the ground was just too much for him, and I love that he has plenty of Cheltenham experience. The Liquidator was as short as 12/1 for the Supreme before his Kempton flop and I'm hoping that a return to better ground and a left handed undulating track rather than the flat Kempton course can see this horse produce a much better showing. 20/1 is definitely a price where you can get involved with an e/w punt.
There are plenty more horses I could mention with form in the book and plenty more without it who will go on to produce big runs in the festival opener. However we would be here all day if I did that so I've flagged Irving at the head of the market and the Liquidator at a bigger price as my two against the field at the time of writing. There are plenty in the betting with fancy flat form; John Ferguson has quite a few entered as he tries to register his first victory at the Cheltenham festival, the Irish have plenty at the head of the market and its a safe bet we will see a few steamers in the market on the opening day of the festival. I'm sure Willie Mullins would love to win the festival opener as Tuesday is shaping up as if it could be a huge day for Ireland's Champion trainer with Hurricane Fly and Quevega to come later in the day. A winner here would definitely help calm Willie's nerves slightly! However as I say of the two at the head of the market I'm with Irving, and then my e/w fancy for the race is David Pipe's The Liquidator.
Saturday 22 February 2014
Sunday 16 February 2014
Looking back on the weekend that was - 15th and 16th Febuary
Another great weekend of racing, thankfully the weather was a bit kinder on us racing fans than it has been and we saw some good action on both sides of the Irish Sea. Champion Hurdle wise we saw two live contenders out this weekend as well as a big priced outsider and all three won. Melodic Rendezvous is the outsider I talk of but he loves the soft ground we are seeing at the moment and saw off Zarkandar over at Wincanton on Saturday, providing me with one of two winners tipped up on my weekend preview. Scott's hurdler looks set to line up at Cheltenham for the Champion Hurdle, for which he is a 20/1 chance, but even given soft ground at the festival the field looks so stacked with quality this year I can't really see MR even getting a place. He would need too many of the big guns to underperform on the day and while he has been impressive this season I feel he lacks the quality required to get really competitive in one of the most eagerly anticipated Champion Hurdles ever. Still I doff my hat to Jeremy Scott who has brought his hurdler back from an injury earlier and there will be plenty of other races for MR to win, just not the Champion Hurdle IMO.
Now onto Willie Mullin's intriguing contender Un De Sceaux who was out at Gowran Park on Saturday. While once again not beating much UDS won on Saturday as easily as odds of 1/14 suggested he would, although I would advise caution over betting on him ante-post for the Champion Hurdle. The two times Willie Mullins has won the race with Hurricane Fly the race was won in 3 mins 54 secs and 3 mins 59 secs. However when Rock On Ruby took the victory 2 renewals ago the time was a quicker 3 mins 50 secs, possibly indicating Hurricane Fly prefers to quicken off a slower run race rather than a proper gallop from the off. If Mullins thinks that a slower run race would be more benificial to Hurricane Fly's overall winning chance then the presence of front running Un De Sceaux in the race would certainly not be advisable and it looks like the trainer has been cautious today regarding talk of lining up UDS at Cheltenham. I wouldn't be too surprised if he gave the race a miss this year to give the Fly as big a chance at winning a third Champion Hurdle title as possible, although obviously that won't be the official line!
Finally we also saw Nicky Henderson's My Tent Or Yours running in a jumpers bumper at Kempton Park on Sunday. Henderson didn't want to give his star hurdler a tough race in heavy going so gave the grass a miss and headed for the all-weather, where AP McCoy guided MTOY's to a solid victory were he quickened nicely in the home straight. Henderson was very pleased post-race, describing the outing as "perfect" and he heads to the Champion Hurdle now where he is a 9/2 chance for glory. It also looks like MTOY will have the services of McCoy come March as he appears to be favouring him over Jezki, although AP maintains he hasn't made a decision yet.
Stepping up in distance and going over the larger obstacles now...Captain Chris was very impressive at Ascot on Saturday taking the Betfair Chase in great fashion, another winner for the weekend preview :D. Although his form is vastly superior going right handed it looks like trainer Philip Hobbs is set to send Captain Chris to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup, for which he is a 25/1 shot. CC has won at the course before but his form going left handed isn't a patch on his best going right-handed and in a race where you cannot afford to give an inch I can't be having CC on my mind. If the Gold Cup was run on a right-handed course I would fancy CC to have a solid e/w chance, but he drops at least 1/2 a stone in ratings when he goes left handed and that's not 1/2 a stone he can afford to lose in a Gold Cup!
There were plenty more performances of note over the weekend; It was great to see Dunguib, Champion Bumper winner way back in 2009, record his first victory for three years. Dunguib has been plagued by injury in recent times so hopefully Philip Fenton has managed to sort these troubles out and we can look forward to seeing Dunguib return to Cheltenham this year in a handicap, either the County hurdle or the Coral Cup.
David Pipe's French recruit Un Temps Pour Tout was an impressive winner at Ascot and certainly improved on his British debut with the step up in trip appearing to very much suit. He is now a 16/1 shot for Neptune glory in March for which Ireland expects Faugheen to romp home. Ireland could well go into recession if this one doesn't come in such is the support behind him!
Teaforthree, while not winning at the weekend, has been slashed into as short as 10/1 for Grand National glory after his run behind Restless Harry at Ascot. This was much more impressive than his run in the Welsh National and he will carry 5lbs less at Aintree this year than when 3rd last year...so much for Phil Smith raising the weights using the Aintree factor! He looks to have a great chance in the Grand National but 10/1 at this stage is short enough.
This week we will be building up to the Kempton Park Chase at the weekend, and Tuesday will mark three weeks until the start of the Cheltenham Festival...the famous roar greeting the Supreme Novice's Hurdle is getting really close now! I doubt we will see too many Cheltenham clues on the track now so it's time to get the form book out and start studying, although who knows what the ground will be at Presbury Park come the 11th of March. Well it'll probably be called good to soft but what it will ride like is anyones guess!
Now onto Willie Mullin's intriguing contender Un De Sceaux who was out at Gowran Park on Saturday. While once again not beating much UDS won on Saturday as easily as odds of 1/14 suggested he would, although I would advise caution over betting on him ante-post for the Champion Hurdle. The two times Willie Mullins has won the race with Hurricane Fly the race was won in 3 mins 54 secs and 3 mins 59 secs. However when Rock On Ruby took the victory 2 renewals ago the time was a quicker 3 mins 50 secs, possibly indicating Hurricane Fly prefers to quicken off a slower run race rather than a proper gallop from the off. If Mullins thinks that a slower run race would be more benificial to Hurricane Fly's overall winning chance then the presence of front running Un De Sceaux in the race would certainly not be advisable and it looks like the trainer has been cautious today regarding talk of lining up UDS at Cheltenham. I wouldn't be too surprised if he gave the race a miss this year to give the Fly as big a chance at winning a third Champion Hurdle title as possible, although obviously that won't be the official line!
Finally we also saw Nicky Henderson's My Tent Or Yours running in a jumpers bumper at Kempton Park on Sunday. Henderson didn't want to give his star hurdler a tough race in heavy going so gave the grass a miss and headed for the all-weather, where AP McCoy guided MTOY's to a solid victory were he quickened nicely in the home straight. Henderson was very pleased post-race, describing the outing as "perfect" and he heads to the Champion Hurdle now where he is a 9/2 chance for glory. It also looks like MTOY will have the services of McCoy come March as he appears to be favouring him over Jezki, although AP maintains he hasn't made a decision yet.
Stepping up in distance and going over the larger obstacles now...Captain Chris was very impressive at Ascot on Saturday taking the Betfair Chase in great fashion, another winner for the weekend preview :D. Although his form is vastly superior going right handed it looks like trainer Philip Hobbs is set to send Captain Chris to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup, for which he is a 25/1 shot. CC has won at the course before but his form going left handed isn't a patch on his best going right-handed and in a race where you cannot afford to give an inch I can't be having CC on my mind. If the Gold Cup was run on a right-handed course I would fancy CC to have a solid e/w chance, but he drops at least 1/2 a stone in ratings when he goes left handed and that's not 1/2 a stone he can afford to lose in a Gold Cup!
There were plenty more performances of note over the weekend; It was great to see Dunguib, Champion Bumper winner way back in 2009, record his first victory for three years. Dunguib has been plagued by injury in recent times so hopefully Philip Fenton has managed to sort these troubles out and we can look forward to seeing Dunguib return to Cheltenham this year in a handicap, either the County hurdle or the Coral Cup.
David Pipe's French recruit Un Temps Pour Tout was an impressive winner at Ascot and certainly improved on his British debut with the step up in trip appearing to very much suit. He is now a 16/1 shot for Neptune glory in March for which Ireland expects Faugheen to romp home. Ireland could well go into recession if this one doesn't come in such is the support behind him!
Teaforthree, while not winning at the weekend, has been slashed into as short as 10/1 for Grand National glory after his run behind Restless Harry at Ascot. This was much more impressive than his run in the Welsh National and he will carry 5lbs less at Aintree this year than when 3rd last year...so much for Phil Smith raising the weights using the Aintree factor! He looks to have a great chance in the Grand National but 10/1 at this stage is short enough.
This week we will be building up to the Kempton Park Chase at the weekend, and Tuesday will mark three weeks until the start of the Cheltenham Festival...the famous roar greeting the Supreme Novice's Hurdle is getting really close now! I doubt we will see too many Cheltenham clues on the track now so it's time to get the form book out and start studying, although who knows what the ground will be at Presbury Park come the 11th of March. Well it'll probably be called good to soft but what it will ride like is anyones guess!
Friday 14 February 2014
Looking forward to Saturday at Ascot, Haydock, Wincanton and my friend Chris
Well even after a week in which we saw abandonments left right and center it looks like we should get some quality action over the jumps this weekend at Ascot, Haydock and (inspection permitting) Haydock where the card has already been reduced to an all-hurdle affair because of the sodden ground. I'll have a look at the highlights at each venue, starting with the all-hurdle card at Wincanton.
The Kingwell Hurdle is the highlight of the fare on offer at Wincanton and they go over the bare minimum 2 mile trip here. The market has it as a match between Melodic Rendezvous (6/5) and Zarkandar (11/8) with Alan King's Grumeti next in the market at 5/1. I really like the chances of Jeremy Scott's stable star Melodic Rendezvous here. This is much more his trip than Zarkandar and even with the emphasis on stamina with this ground I think Zarkandar will find this too sharp a trip; a look at his Cheltenham entry in the World Hurdle shows you where this horse's strength lies. Melodic Rendezvous has some really good form in the book, beating Nicholl's Ptit Zig last time out at Haydock and has C&D form to boot, including the beating of Far West earlier this season round here. While Grumeti is a live danger receiving weight from the selection and with the King stable going well at the moment, Melodic Rendezvous was clearly not right when Grumeti beat him up at Newcastle earlier this season and I'm not sure Grumeti will fancy this ground too much looking back on previous form. Remember Melodic Rendezvous was touted as a live contender for the champion hurdle earlier this season, and is still a potential one if the ground comes up soft, so he really needs to be winning here to justify such hopes. I expect Melodic Rendezvous to have too much speed for Zarkandar and fancy Nick Scholfield to get one over on his boss Paul Nicholls in the Kingwell Hurdle.
Moving onto Haydock where, just after the unveiling of the Grand National Weights, we see a race registered as a trial for the great steeplechase. This really will be a grueling test, 3 miles 5 furlongs on deep deep ground, so lets go looking for a horse that will appreciate such conditions. To be fair there are a fair few of them in here however! Well Refreshed won this last year but is 12 lbs higher for this renewal and hasn't produced anything like that form since so is passed over in this competitive heat. Hawkes Point, just denied in the Welsh National, will love the trip and ground as will a host of others but the one I'm going for here is Emperor's Choice. A host of poor runs were blown away last time out where Venetia Williams' charge won the Welsh Wales National over 3 and 1/2 miles on very testing ground. Theoretically well in for this race I fancy that Williams has managed to sort this one out, especially given the money that came for him that day. Someone definitely knew that this horse was finally going well and produce the form we thought he had within him somewhere and with the conditions he loves again meeting him at Haydock he can follow up that win.
Finally going down to Ascot for the best bet of the day in the Betfair Ascot Chase where Captain Chris heads the market for this. He absolutely jumps out the page at me for this 2 mile 5 furlong race. His record going right-handed reads far betters his left-handed form and would be a live Gold Cup contender if Cheltenham was the other way round. Alas it is not but Ascot is and Captain Chris loves it round here. He should have the beating of market rival Riverside Theatre, having been trying to give him 10lbs when just beaten 3/4 of a length earlier this season, so Henderson's charge is passed over here. Cloudy Too is rated 12lbs lower than Philips Hobb's charge yet they go off level weights tomorrow, so clearly he will have to produce a mammoth effort to beat the Captain if he runs to form. Who knows what to expect from Hunt Ball, Kauto Stone would be interesting if he could produce his form of a few years ago but that's not what you want to be clinging onto in a competitive race and Sunny Ledgend just isn't good enough in this company. That leaves us with Medermit, an extremely high-class horse who has beaten Captain Chris in his time, and Rolling Aces. However Medermit's victory over Captain Chris was 3 years ago, way back in 2011, and Alan King's charge has a 22 month absence to overcome if he is to take this race. He has won when fresh in the past but never 22 months 'fresh' and while I could well see Medermit running very promisingly tomorrow it is expecting a bit too much to expect him to beat a lot of race fit horses here, especially given the stamina test this race will post. Finally Rolling Aces...Paul Nicholls was beaten when odds on latest but that was on good ground and previous to that has some smart form on testing ground in the book, including a grade 2 victory over in Ireland. A return to these testing conditions will suit, and the cheekpeices may get some improvement from this one, but again has a huge amount to find on figures. Basically I really like the chances of Captain Chris tomorrow and he strikes me as a great bet at even money. Philip Hobbs is going really well this season and I rate Captain Chris as my Nap of the day tomorrow to add another winner to the Hobbs 2013/14 season tally.
That's it from me, hopefully Captain Chris can do the business at Ascot and leave us all happy this weekend!
Thanks for reading
The Kingwell Hurdle is the highlight of the fare on offer at Wincanton and they go over the bare minimum 2 mile trip here. The market has it as a match between Melodic Rendezvous (6/5) and Zarkandar (11/8) with Alan King's Grumeti next in the market at 5/1. I really like the chances of Jeremy Scott's stable star Melodic Rendezvous here. This is much more his trip than Zarkandar and even with the emphasis on stamina with this ground I think Zarkandar will find this too sharp a trip; a look at his Cheltenham entry in the World Hurdle shows you where this horse's strength lies. Melodic Rendezvous has some really good form in the book, beating Nicholl's Ptit Zig last time out at Haydock and has C&D form to boot, including the beating of Far West earlier this season round here. While Grumeti is a live danger receiving weight from the selection and with the King stable going well at the moment, Melodic Rendezvous was clearly not right when Grumeti beat him up at Newcastle earlier this season and I'm not sure Grumeti will fancy this ground too much looking back on previous form. Remember Melodic Rendezvous was touted as a live contender for the champion hurdle earlier this season, and is still a potential one if the ground comes up soft, so he really needs to be winning here to justify such hopes. I expect Melodic Rendezvous to have too much speed for Zarkandar and fancy Nick Scholfield to get one over on his boss Paul Nicholls in the Kingwell Hurdle.
Moving onto Haydock where, just after the unveiling of the Grand National Weights, we see a race registered as a trial for the great steeplechase. This really will be a grueling test, 3 miles 5 furlongs on deep deep ground, so lets go looking for a horse that will appreciate such conditions. To be fair there are a fair few of them in here however! Well Refreshed won this last year but is 12 lbs higher for this renewal and hasn't produced anything like that form since so is passed over in this competitive heat. Hawkes Point, just denied in the Welsh National, will love the trip and ground as will a host of others but the one I'm going for here is Emperor's Choice. A host of poor runs were blown away last time out where Venetia Williams' charge won the Welsh Wales National over 3 and 1/2 miles on very testing ground. Theoretically well in for this race I fancy that Williams has managed to sort this one out, especially given the money that came for him that day. Someone definitely knew that this horse was finally going well and produce the form we thought he had within him somewhere and with the conditions he loves again meeting him at Haydock he can follow up that win.
Finally going down to Ascot for the best bet of the day in the Betfair Ascot Chase where Captain Chris heads the market for this. He absolutely jumps out the page at me for this 2 mile 5 furlong race. His record going right-handed reads far betters his left-handed form and would be a live Gold Cup contender if Cheltenham was the other way round. Alas it is not but Ascot is and Captain Chris loves it round here. He should have the beating of market rival Riverside Theatre, having been trying to give him 10lbs when just beaten 3/4 of a length earlier this season, so Henderson's charge is passed over here. Cloudy Too is rated 12lbs lower than Philips Hobb's charge yet they go off level weights tomorrow, so clearly he will have to produce a mammoth effort to beat the Captain if he runs to form. Who knows what to expect from Hunt Ball, Kauto Stone would be interesting if he could produce his form of a few years ago but that's not what you want to be clinging onto in a competitive race and Sunny Ledgend just isn't good enough in this company. That leaves us with Medermit, an extremely high-class horse who has beaten Captain Chris in his time, and Rolling Aces. However Medermit's victory over Captain Chris was 3 years ago, way back in 2011, and Alan King's charge has a 22 month absence to overcome if he is to take this race. He has won when fresh in the past but never 22 months 'fresh' and while I could well see Medermit running very promisingly tomorrow it is expecting a bit too much to expect him to beat a lot of race fit horses here, especially given the stamina test this race will post. Finally Rolling Aces...Paul Nicholls was beaten when odds on latest but that was on good ground and previous to that has some smart form on testing ground in the book, including a grade 2 victory over in Ireland. A return to these testing conditions will suit, and the cheekpeices may get some improvement from this one, but again has a huge amount to find on figures. Basically I really like the chances of Captain Chris tomorrow and he strikes me as a great bet at even money. Philip Hobbs is going really well this season and I rate Captain Chris as my Nap of the day tomorrow to add another winner to the Hobbs 2013/14 season tally.
That's it from me, hopefully Captain Chris can do the business at Ascot and leave us all happy this weekend!
Thanks for reading
Sunday 9 February 2014
Absorbing the Irish Action
What a great day's action we saw on Sunday over at Leopardstown; four Grade One races on the card while led to some real Cheltenham clues emerged from these. Some bubbles bursting and some coming out with reputations vastly enhanced, lets start with the first of these races: the Spring Juvenile Hurdle.
This 2 mile race was billed as a showdown between two all conquering yards. One we are fully used to seeing dominate the Irish jumping scene in Willie Mullins, represented by Ivan Grozny and one we are much more used to dominating the flat scene in the Aiden O'Brien yard who's McManus owned Plinth had defeated Ivan Grozny on their previous meeting. These horses were at the head of the market for the Triumph Hurdle come March but the races was taken by Guitar Pete, a 9/2 shot for the race. Dessie Hughes's charge won this very impressively and comparisons will be drawn with the yard's superstar Our Conor. Both trainer and jockey were very positive post-race regarding Guitar Pete's Triumph Hurdle chances, believing he is the type of horse, a real stayer, that will appreciate the test that the Triumph will present. Guitar Pete was trimmed from 20/1 into 8/1 and 10/1 depending where you look, with Ivan Grozny and Plinth pushed out to around 20/1 with most firms. Certainly Guitar Pete deserves his place towards the head of the market, he won this race in very taking style, and I wouldn't be too keen on laying the 10/1. One horse I previously put up for the Triumph Hurdle, John Quinn's Pearl Castle, is now a 16/1 shot and even though I do really like that horse I must say the 10/1 on Guitar Pete is a much more attractive proposition at the current prices. I really was impressed by what I saw today.
The second Grade One on the card saw The Tullow Tank clashing against fellow Supreme Novice's Hurdle hope Vautour. I didn't take as much out of this race as the opener, with Ruby Walsh giving us all a reminder of just what a good jockey he was as he rode Vautour from the front to win, with nothing else getting into the race. Danny Mullins had a bit of a shocker on TTT in my opinion and never looked like catching the winner after Danny let a gap open up and then tried hopelessly to close it in the home straight. Considering post race the talk was of how TTT would now go for the Neptune as opposed to the Supreme why Mullins appeared to ride TTT for speed is beyond me. Vautour got the run of the race here, something he won't get in the Supreme, and prices as short as 4/1 for the festival opener make absolutely no appeal to me. As mentioned in yesterday's blog I quite like First Mohican for that race at the current 20/1 available, but as regards the Deloitte Hurdle I won't be taking much out of the race for the Supreme. If anything I'll be taking the 11/1 available on TTT for the Neptune as on today's evidence the step up in trip could bring about an improved performance and he is certainly not one to rule out of festival thoughts even after defeat today.
Moving on to the three runner Novice's Chase at 2:45 we saw the RSA favourite Ballycasey get the beating of Don Cossack and Carlingford Lough in a quite unsatisfactory 2 mile 5 furlong race. This wasn't much of a stamina test but for those who had taken the 8/1 available pre-race on Ballycasey for the RSA it was certainly a relief to see him back on the racetrack, and he is now as short as 5/1 in the betting for that race. The layers a touch excessive in that price cut in my opinion. For me though I was surprised to see Carlingford Lough pushed out to 14/1 for RSA glory. This is one horse who is a proven Grade 1 winner with proven stamina who will not mind the hustle and bustle of a championship race at Cheltenham. 14/1 is too big, and I think some people are put off because the horse has won big handicaps and are still associating him with that type of race. Make no mistake about it Carlingford Lough has had the beating of some very nice horses in his time and 14/1 is a price I wouldn't put anyone off getting involved in e/w for Cheltenham glory in the RSA.
The final Grade One of the day saw a fantastic round of jumping from the front as Last Instalment ran his opposition into the ground to win the Irish Hennessy in brilliant style. This was a fantastic story, I always love seeing horses come back from injury layoffs and proving they still retain all their past abilities. A 40/1 shot pre-race, Last Instalment is now as short as 8/1 for Gold Cup glory in March and the blue riband race was confirmed as the target providing he comes out of this race OK and the ground has a bit of give in it come March. Given the current weather the latter shouldn't be much of a concern and I would advise anyone attracted by the prices for the Gold Cup to just wait off a couple of days. Last Instalment is a fragile horse and it would be wise to ensure his well being after this race before getting involved Ante-post. Of the rest I have to touch on Tidal Bay who produced his customary running-on display to get 2nd place. Paul Nicholls has really turned the lovable rouge around and he is a 14/1 shot for the Grand National in April, for which the weights come out this week. I probably won't be able to resist getting involved for the Aintree marathon as I just love the horse and it would be such a fantastic way to see out his career.
It was an absolutely cracking Sunday of racing and very enjoyable to blog about, I hope you have enjoyed reading my thoughts and I'd love to hear yours!
This 2 mile race was billed as a showdown between two all conquering yards. One we are fully used to seeing dominate the Irish jumping scene in Willie Mullins, represented by Ivan Grozny and one we are much more used to dominating the flat scene in the Aiden O'Brien yard who's McManus owned Plinth had defeated Ivan Grozny on their previous meeting. These horses were at the head of the market for the Triumph Hurdle come March but the races was taken by Guitar Pete, a 9/2 shot for the race. Dessie Hughes's charge won this very impressively and comparisons will be drawn with the yard's superstar Our Conor. Both trainer and jockey were very positive post-race regarding Guitar Pete's Triumph Hurdle chances, believing he is the type of horse, a real stayer, that will appreciate the test that the Triumph will present. Guitar Pete was trimmed from 20/1 into 8/1 and 10/1 depending where you look, with Ivan Grozny and Plinth pushed out to around 20/1 with most firms. Certainly Guitar Pete deserves his place towards the head of the market, he won this race in very taking style, and I wouldn't be too keen on laying the 10/1. One horse I previously put up for the Triumph Hurdle, John Quinn's Pearl Castle, is now a 16/1 shot and even though I do really like that horse I must say the 10/1 on Guitar Pete is a much more attractive proposition at the current prices. I really was impressed by what I saw today.
The second Grade One on the card saw The Tullow Tank clashing against fellow Supreme Novice's Hurdle hope Vautour. I didn't take as much out of this race as the opener, with Ruby Walsh giving us all a reminder of just what a good jockey he was as he rode Vautour from the front to win, with nothing else getting into the race. Danny Mullins had a bit of a shocker on TTT in my opinion and never looked like catching the winner after Danny let a gap open up and then tried hopelessly to close it in the home straight. Considering post race the talk was of how TTT would now go for the Neptune as opposed to the Supreme why Mullins appeared to ride TTT for speed is beyond me. Vautour got the run of the race here, something he won't get in the Supreme, and prices as short as 4/1 for the festival opener make absolutely no appeal to me. As mentioned in yesterday's blog I quite like First Mohican for that race at the current 20/1 available, but as regards the Deloitte Hurdle I won't be taking much out of the race for the Supreme. If anything I'll be taking the 11/1 available on TTT for the Neptune as on today's evidence the step up in trip could bring about an improved performance and he is certainly not one to rule out of festival thoughts even after defeat today.
Moving on to the three runner Novice's Chase at 2:45 we saw the RSA favourite Ballycasey get the beating of Don Cossack and Carlingford Lough in a quite unsatisfactory 2 mile 5 furlong race. This wasn't much of a stamina test but for those who had taken the 8/1 available pre-race on Ballycasey for the RSA it was certainly a relief to see him back on the racetrack, and he is now as short as 5/1 in the betting for that race. The layers a touch excessive in that price cut in my opinion. For me though I was surprised to see Carlingford Lough pushed out to 14/1 for RSA glory. This is one horse who is a proven Grade 1 winner with proven stamina who will not mind the hustle and bustle of a championship race at Cheltenham. 14/1 is too big, and I think some people are put off because the horse has won big handicaps and are still associating him with that type of race. Make no mistake about it Carlingford Lough has had the beating of some very nice horses in his time and 14/1 is a price I wouldn't put anyone off getting involved in e/w for Cheltenham glory in the RSA.
The final Grade One of the day saw a fantastic round of jumping from the front as Last Instalment ran his opposition into the ground to win the Irish Hennessy in brilliant style. This was a fantastic story, I always love seeing horses come back from injury layoffs and proving they still retain all their past abilities. A 40/1 shot pre-race, Last Instalment is now as short as 8/1 for Gold Cup glory in March and the blue riband race was confirmed as the target providing he comes out of this race OK and the ground has a bit of give in it come March. Given the current weather the latter shouldn't be much of a concern and I would advise anyone attracted by the prices for the Gold Cup to just wait off a couple of days. Last Instalment is a fragile horse and it would be wise to ensure his well being after this race before getting involved Ante-post. Of the rest I have to touch on Tidal Bay who produced his customary running-on display to get 2nd place. Paul Nicholls has really turned the lovable rouge around and he is a 14/1 shot for the Grand National in April, for which the weights come out this week. I probably won't be able to resist getting involved for the Aintree marathon as I just love the horse and it would be such a fantastic way to see out his career.
It was an absolutely cracking Sunday of racing and very enjoyable to blog about, I hope you have enjoyed reading my thoughts and I'd love to hear yours!
Saturday 8 February 2014
Looking back on Super Saturday at Newbury
A very pleasing Saturday for this blog as my main ante-post selection, Harry Topper, absolutely adored conditions and the test of stamina thrown at him during the Denman chase at Newbury to beat Paul Nicholl's Al Ferof. Al Ferof did previously hold Cheltenham Gold Cup aspirations but after this performance, where he didn't show the stamina one would think would be required to win a Gold Cup, connections may now look down the Ryanair route. However I feel that given conditions it will take the grey a while to recover from this effort where Daryl Jacob was issuing reminders a long way from home and he could be one to swerve in this market, especially as he would probably be a fairly short price.
Moving back onto the winner, Kim Bailey's Harry Topper. Harry actually put in a decent round of jumping, almost certainly helped by the fact they omitted a couple of fences due to the wet conditions and the slower pace they would have been going at through the mud, giving him a lot more time at his fences. However you could not fail to be impressed by the stamina shown by Harry and the layers cut him into 25/1 for Gold Cup glory in March. I can't have him on my mind for an outright win in that market, to me Bob's Worth looks bombproof, and you would need the ground to come up very soft for Harry Topper to even run in the race. Given the current weather situation that isn't unfathomable though and one could certainly imagine Harry staying on up the hill when others have cried enough and at 25/1 you can afford to take a speculative punt if you, like me, have forgotten what a week without rain was like!
Elsewhere on the Newbury card Calipto didn't do his Triumph Hurdle claims any harm when winning the opener under Daryl Jacob and is a 10/1 shot for festival glory on the Friday. The word out the Nicholls yard is that Calipto is the best four year old Nicholls has and ground conditions won't be an issue for this horse. However anyone wanting to play in that market may be best off waiting for results at Leopardstown tomorrow as this will see Ivan Grozny and Plinth face off, two horses right at the head of the betting, and an impressive performance from either of these will surely see them shorten right up, especially considering connections.
Module was a very game winner of the 2 mile 1 furlong chase on the card, beating Arkle hopeful Dodging Bullets by a narrow margin and both horses came out of this race with their reputations enhanced. Module looks like being aimed at the Champion Chase, for which he is a 33/1 chance, and that is a price that looks tempting considering his performance today and the trainer's words post race. We saw the majestic Sprinter Sacre parade before racing and his presence in the market makes it very tricky to get involved in ante-post. If a fit and 100% Sprinter turns up in March then everything else is playing for second place. However if Henderson's charge doesn't make it to the festival or goes there not 100% there are some huge prices floating about as the absence of Sprinter Sacre would see everything else cut in dramatically. It really depends if you want to gamble on the health of the reigning champion chaser however the vibes from his trainer today seemed positive enough and we can only hope we get to see Sprinter fit and healthy come March.
Smad place enhanced his RSA chase claims, and the Alan King stable seem to have emerged flying from the self-enforced downtime at the stable. I am currently really taking note of any of Alan King's winners as I doubt the trainer will have been able to get a massive amount of work into his horses considering it wasn't too long ago he was massively worried about the health of the stable. I really think there is loads more improvement to come from Alan's horses and while Smad Place definitely hasn't been missed in the market he is definitely worth his place as ante-post favourite in my mind. I've forgotten what Ballycasey even looks like considering how long it has been since we saw him on the course and I'd much rather back Smad Place that him when you consider they are the same price.
As a related note one Alan King horse I really quite like is ex-flat recruit First Mohican, a winner at Doncaster on Thursday. Rated 108 on the flat for the late Sir Henry Cecil this was First Mohican's first run for the stable. Uneasy in the betting before and Choc Thornton dropped his reins on the run in but neither of these factors prevented this one from winning. 20/1 is still available for the Supreme and the trainer has conformed this is his target, with a prep run at Kempton before. As mentioned early I expect all of Alan King's horses to improve for their first runs post-break as King gets the time to get more work into them and an impressive performance for this one in the Dovecote Novices Hurdle will see his odds slashed for the Supreme.
The minefield of the Betfair Hurdle was won by 33/1 shot Splash of Ginge, well done to anyone who managed to pick that one out! He holds entries in both the Supreme and Triumph hurdle at the festival, but the one I will be taking out of the race is Cheltenian, who was travelling well but seemed to tire on the extremely testing ground. David Pipe's horse also holds an entry for the Supreme, in which he is a 20/1 shot, and better ground come March will definitely see this Champion Bumper winner in a better light. In a fairly open Supreme market he is one who appeals at a decent price.
Finally Thomas Brown was very disappointing in the closing bumper. Harry Fry's charge had attracted money all day but was virtually pulled up in the end, it could have been that the testing ground just wasn't his bag of tea. And of course a Saturday's racing wouldn't be complete without a power-packed finish involving the champ AP McCoy, who was at his best to get Upswing home to win the 3 mile 1/2 a furlong handicap chase.
Thanks for reading!
Moving back onto the winner, Kim Bailey's Harry Topper. Harry actually put in a decent round of jumping, almost certainly helped by the fact they omitted a couple of fences due to the wet conditions and the slower pace they would have been going at through the mud, giving him a lot more time at his fences. However you could not fail to be impressed by the stamina shown by Harry and the layers cut him into 25/1 for Gold Cup glory in March. I can't have him on my mind for an outright win in that market, to me Bob's Worth looks bombproof, and you would need the ground to come up very soft for Harry Topper to even run in the race. Given the current weather situation that isn't unfathomable though and one could certainly imagine Harry staying on up the hill when others have cried enough and at 25/1 you can afford to take a speculative punt if you, like me, have forgotten what a week without rain was like!
Elsewhere on the Newbury card Calipto didn't do his Triumph Hurdle claims any harm when winning the opener under Daryl Jacob and is a 10/1 shot for festival glory on the Friday. The word out the Nicholls yard is that Calipto is the best four year old Nicholls has and ground conditions won't be an issue for this horse. However anyone wanting to play in that market may be best off waiting for results at Leopardstown tomorrow as this will see Ivan Grozny and Plinth face off, two horses right at the head of the betting, and an impressive performance from either of these will surely see them shorten right up, especially considering connections.
Module was a very game winner of the 2 mile 1 furlong chase on the card, beating Arkle hopeful Dodging Bullets by a narrow margin and both horses came out of this race with their reputations enhanced. Module looks like being aimed at the Champion Chase, for which he is a 33/1 chance, and that is a price that looks tempting considering his performance today and the trainer's words post race. We saw the majestic Sprinter Sacre parade before racing and his presence in the market makes it very tricky to get involved in ante-post. If a fit and 100% Sprinter turns up in March then everything else is playing for second place. However if Henderson's charge doesn't make it to the festival or goes there not 100% there are some huge prices floating about as the absence of Sprinter Sacre would see everything else cut in dramatically. It really depends if you want to gamble on the health of the reigning champion chaser however the vibes from his trainer today seemed positive enough and we can only hope we get to see Sprinter fit and healthy come March.
Smad place enhanced his RSA chase claims, and the Alan King stable seem to have emerged flying from the self-enforced downtime at the stable. I am currently really taking note of any of Alan King's winners as I doubt the trainer will have been able to get a massive amount of work into his horses considering it wasn't too long ago he was massively worried about the health of the stable. I really think there is loads more improvement to come from Alan's horses and while Smad Place definitely hasn't been missed in the market he is definitely worth his place as ante-post favourite in my mind. I've forgotten what Ballycasey even looks like considering how long it has been since we saw him on the course and I'd much rather back Smad Place that him when you consider they are the same price.
As a related note one Alan King horse I really quite like is ex-flat recruit First Mohican, a winner at Doncaster on Thursday. Rated 108 on the flat for the late Sir Henry Cecil this was First Mohican's first run for the stable. Uneasy in the betting before and Choc Thornton dropped his reins on the run in but neither of these factors prevented this one from winning. 20/1 is still available for the Supreme and the trainer has conformed this is his target, with a prep run at Kempton before. As mentioned early I expect all of Alan King's horses to improve for their first runs post-break as King gets the time to get more work into them and an impressive performance for this one in the Dovecote Novices Hurdle will see his odds slashed for the Supreme.
The minefield of the Betfair Hurdle was won by 33/1 shot Splash of Ginge, well done to anyone who managed to pick that one out! He holds entries in both the Supreme and Triumph hurdle at the festival, but the one I will be taking out of the race is Cheltenian, who was travelling well but seemed to tire on the extremely testing ground. David Pipe's horse also holds an entry for the Supreme, in which he is a 20/1 shot, and better ground come March will definitely see this Champion Bumper winner in a better light. In a fairly open Supreme market he is one who appeals at a decent price.
Finally Thomas Brown was very disappointing in the closing bumper. Harry Fry's charge had attracted money all day but was virtually pulled up in the end, it could have been that the testing ground just wasn't his bag of tea. And of course a Saturday's racing wouldn't be complete without a power-packed finish involving the champ AP McCoy, who was at his best to get Upswing home to win the 3 mile 1/2 a furlong handicap chase.
Thanks for reading!
Thursday 6 February 2014
Looking ahead to Newbury and a Super Saturday card
This weekend (hopefully) sees a few decent horses out at Newbury and Warwick and it's the Newbury venue that I'm looking forward too the most. The Denman chase, a 3 mile Grade 2 race, will be a stamina sapping clash for the horses that go to post with the going at Newbury heavy as I type and only likly to get even heavier with the weather forecast. Paul Nicholls Gold Cup hopeful Al Ferof potentially lines up here, although Nicholls has expressed doubts over the ground and he may not run if it gets totally bottomless. As an ante-post fancy this immediately casts doubts over the validity of a punt on Al Ferof, and with Tidal Bay definitely off to Leopardstown on Sunday instead of here that takes us down to 8 runners. Therefore if you have an e/w fancy it makes sense to get stuck in now rather than wait till the day when the reduced runners will lead to worse e/w terms if we get any more withdrawals.
Highland Lodge is a likely pace angle in this race and should ensure they go at a decent clip. Emma Lavelle's horse usually goes from the front and likes it round here, his 4th place in the Hennessy proving that, and although I fancy he will find a few too good here at least they won't be walking round for the first 2 miles. Triolo D'Alene, the winner of that Hennessy, lines up again here. However his three recent wins have been on good or good to soft ground so there have to be doubts over his ability to act on this very testing surface.
Katenko represents the red-hot stable of Venetia Williams and has some excellent form from last season. However he has had a bout of colic and hasn't been able to reproduce that same form since. A faller back here in November he is too short at 4/1 in the market to justify a punt considering his form since his colic. However if he is to bounce back this ground won't be a problem and as I say the stable could barely be in better form, just at the price I feel I can justify avoiding him.
One horse that definitely has the class to win this race is Menorah for Philip Hobbs. Often a feature in hot grade 1 races under regular pilot Richard Johnson Menorah comes here on the back of a pulled up effort in the King George on Boxing day. He has to overcome that bad run but heavy ground isn't a problem and 10/1 is currently a very nice price. In last year's renewal of this race he finished third behind Silviniaco Conti and The Giant Bolster, not bad form at all and acts round the track. However he is also likely to clout one or two on the way round but at 10/1 he definitely represents some e/w value.
Another horse likely to clout one or two is a favourite horse of mine, and one I will nominate to take this race this weekend - Harry Topper. I put Kim Bailey's charge up as my fancy for the Argento Chase at Cheltenham a few weeks back and he jumped poorly there but absolutely flew home after the last to claim third place behind the winner The Giant Bolster. However I think this race will suit him even more. As mentioned earlier I think we will get a decent pace set by Highland Lodge and the heavy ground will ensure stamina is at a premium, absolutely ideal for Harry Topper. He was giving 10 lbs to The Giant Bolster and 5 lbs to Rocky Creek, the two who beat him at Cheltenham in January, making his performance all the more impressive. I think the heavy ground may also give Harry Topper a bit more time at his fences and there will be plenty who struggle to jump out of it, however Harry will not be one of those. He is in danger of becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me but at 4/1 he is my ante-post selection for the Denman Chase.
I'll very briefly touch on the Betfair Hurdle, an absolute minefield of a race and one where you could make a case for plenty. Instead of going through the field and nominating a few I'll just put two up here and highlight why I think they look decent to me. First up is the Paul Nicholl's trained Far West. Only beaten by the hugely impressive Our Conor in the Triumph hurdle last year at the festival Far West is a horse proven on testing ground and in big fields and big occasions. He has a big weight but Harry Derham takes a very useful 5lbs off taking him into the middle of the weights, and on this ground every pound will count. 12/1 looks a fair price.
The 2nd selection at a big price is Recession Proof, a former winner of the race. John Quinn's horse is now back on the same mark that he won this race off 3 years ago now and was running what looked a potentially big race last time out in the Ascot hurdle before falling. jockey that day, Brendan Powell, has come out and said he thought Recession Proof was going well that day and could maybe have taken a hand at the finish but it wasn't to be. Now Jake Greenall takes the mount and has the added benefit of a 3lbs claim, and as I've said this is definitely a race where every pound can count. Recession Proof won't mind the ground, likes it round here and has showed signs of coming back to the form that could see him in with a shout here. At 25/1, and some bookies paying 5 places, I think you could forgive a few pounds on Recession Proof as well.
That's all for this preview of the two big races at Newbury this weekend. Thanks for reading and I'd love to hear your thoughts on my selections!
Highland Lodge is a likely pace angle in this race and should ensure they go at a decent clip. Emma Lavelle's horse usually goes from the front and likes it round here, his 4th place in the Hennessy proving that, and although I fancy he will find a few too good here at least they won't be walking round for the first 2 miles. Triolo D'Alene, the winner of that Hennessy, lines up again here. However his three recent wins have been on good or good to soft ground so there have to be doubts over his ability to act on this very testing surface.
Katenko represents the red-hot stable of Venetia Williams and has some excellent form from last season. However he has had a bout of colic and hasn't been able to reproduce that same form since. A faller back here in November he is too short at 4/1 in the market to justify a punt considering his form since his colic. However if he is to bounce back this ground won't be a problem and as I say the stable could barely be in better form, just at the price I feel I can justify avoiding him.
One horse that definitely has the class to win this race is Menorah for Philip Hobbs. Often a feature in hot grade 1 races under regular pilot Richard Johnson Menorah comes here on the back of a pulled up effort in the King George on Boxing day. He has to overcome that bad run but heavy ground isn't a problem and 10/1 is currently a very nice price. In last year's renewal of this race he finished third behind Silviniaco Conti and The Giant Bolster, not bad form at all and acts round the track. However he is also likely to clout one or two on the way round but at 10/1 he definitely represents some e/w value.
Another horse likely to clout one or two is a favourite horse of mine, and one I will nominate to take this race this weekend - Harry Topper. I put Kim Bailey's charge up as my fancy for the Argento Chase at Cheltenham a few weeks back and he jumped poorly there but absolutely flew home after the last to claim third place behind the winner The Giant Bolster. However I think this race will suit him even more. As mentioned earlier I think we will get a decent pace set by Highland Lodge and the heavy ground will ensure stamina is at a premium, absolutely ideal for Harry Topper. He was giving 10 lbs to The Giant Bolster and 5 lbs to Rocky Creek, the two who beat him at Cheltenham in January, making his performance all the more impressive. I think the heavy ground may also give Harry Topper a bit more time at his fences and there will be plenty who struggle to jump out of it, however Harry will not be one of those. He is in danger of becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me but at 4/1 he is my ante-post selection for the Denman Chase.
I'll very briefly touch on the Betfair Hurdle, an absolute minefield of a race and one where you could make a case for plenty. Instead of going through the field and nominating a few I'll just put two up here and highlight why I think they look decent to me. First up is the Paul Nicholl's trained Far West. Only beaten by the hugely impressive Our Conor in the Triumph hurdle last year at the festival Far West is a horse proven on testing ground and in big fields and big occasions. He has a big weight but Harry Derham takes a very useful 5lbs off taking him into the middle of the weights, and on this ground every pound will count. 12/1 looks a fair price.
The 2nd selection at a big price is Recession Proof, a former winner of the race. John Quinn's horse is now back on the same mark that he won this race off 3 years ago now and was running what looked a potentially big race last time out in the Ascot hurdle before falling. jockey that day, Brendan Powell, has come out and said he thought Recession Proof was going well that day and could maybe have taken a hand at the finish but it wasn't to be. Now Jake Greenall takes the mount and has the added benefit of a 3lbs claim, and as I've said this is definitely a race where every pound can count. Recession Proof won't mind the ground, likes it round here and has showed signs of coming back to the form that could see him in with a shout here. At 25/1, and some bookies paying 5 places, I think you could forgive a few pounds on Recession Proof as well.
That's all for this preview of the two big races at Newbury this weekend. Thanks for reading and I'd love to hear your thoughts on my selections!
Sunday 2 February 2014
What can we take from a Heavy Weekend
Water water everywhere was certainly the theme this weekend as fortunately all three National Hunt cards got the go-ahead on Saturday after looking very touch and go as to whether we would see any jumps racing in England. The going was extremely testing at Wetherby, Sandown and Ffos Las which did lead to some impressive staying performances. Emperor's Choice loves these conditions and took full advantage of them, winning the war of attrition that was the 3 and 1/2 mile West Wales National (is there anywhere that doesn't have a National of some sort now??), one of four winners on the day for the Venetia Williams yard who seem to absolutely love it when the mud is flying.
I was more impressed with the weight carrying performance of Saphir Du Rheu to win the Welsh Champion Hurdle, managing to give 6lbs and a beating to the useful Henderson horse Whisper. Saphir Du Rheu has now won his last three races and if he was owned by anyone else you would think he would head to a weak looking World Hurdle with an decent e/w chance. However the Stewart Family have a wealth of talent in that division, with Big Bucks and Celestial Halo more experienced horses who are definitely heading to the race, and Nicholls post-race comments would indicate Cheltenham is not the plan this season. The ex-Champion trainer reckons this horse could be a cracking chaser in time, the best the Stewart family have had with him although I'm not sure that's saying too much, but given his fairly busy schedule so far this season giving the festival a swerve may prove to be a wise move.
However one horse that is heading to Cheltenham is Oscar Whiskey for the JLT Novices Chase and he was out in a three runner novices chase at Sandown. Predictably he won the race as odds of 1/6 suggested he would but this was certainly not the performance of a horse with serious aspirations of glory come March. There was certainly a period of time where it looked like the Alan King runner Manyriverstocross could have the favourite in trouble, however Oscar asserted as they closed in on the finish line. To be fair on the horse the ground was nothing like that on which he will face come March (I still live in hope that the weather will improve soon!) but at odds as short as 7/1 I'd not be rushing to back him for the JLT. He does have Cheltenham form over both fences and hurdles, which is worth a good deal as some horses simply do not handle the testing undulations of the course, and is a very classy horse so will definitely have his supporters in the market. I am not one of those supporters though, Taquin Du Seuil has my heart in the JLT betting, and even if he didn't Wonderful Charm only got beat 1/2 a length by Oscar Whiskey at Cheltenham trying to give the Henderson horse 8lbs. Off level weights that would have been a totally different story and that is another of the multiple reasons I have for doubting Oscar Whiskeys chances in the JLT come March.
One horse I was looking forward to seeing at Wetherby on Saturday was the JP McManus owned Shutthefrontdoor. Disappointing last time out, the horse was on something of a retrieval mission but was denied the chance to put himself back into punters ante-post thoughts after being withdrawn 30 minutes before race time. I heard on racing UK that the horse has had a breathing operation since finishing last of 4 behind Sam Winner when sent off 13/8 favourite for a Novices Chase at Cheltenham in December which meant that I was more than willing to forgive that bad run. Previous to that Shutthefrontdoor has some decent form, narrowly being beaten by Le Bec over a 3 mile 1 furlong chase in November and winning on his chasing debut at Aintree, not to mention his smart hurdle form, and I still quite like his chances if given a go in either the RSA or the 4 miler come March. You can get generous odds of 33/1 for the RSA about this horse currently while Le Bec trades at 16/1 for the same race and judging on the November form I do not think they should be that far apart in the market. Shutthefrontdoor has bags of stamina and also good Cheltenhaam form in the book - if the breathing operation has worked it's magic expect a smart performance next time out which will lead to those odds tumbling down. Definitely one to watch in my opinion.
There was a great little card up at Musselburgh on Sunday which makes a change for racing on these shores!I don't understand why we continue to have several cracking cards on a Saturday, often making it difficult to concentrate on all the racing properly, and have such low-quality fare on Sundays. I would much rather spread the racing over the weekend, and I'm sure it would be well attended as well, however we seem to be set in our ways of overloading Saturday's in this country! While I won't go into the results from that card in any depth I was pleased to see Ryan Mania ride a double in the first too races in that card especially given the sadness he would have felt at seeing his Grand National winning horse Auroras Encore retired in the week. The horse has been a fantastic servant to the Sue Smith yard and I hope he has a very enjoyable retirement.
That's all for this week, lets hope the rain eases in the weeks ahead and we can start racing on ground with 'good' sneaking into the going description sometime soon!
I was more impressed with the weight carrying performance of Saphir Du Rheu to win the Welsh Champion Hurdle, managing to give 6lbs and a beating to the useful Henderson horse Whisper. Saphir Du Rheu has now won his last three races and if he was owned by anyone else you would think he would head to a weak looking World Hurdle with an decent e/w chance. However the Stewart Family have a wealth of talent in that division, with Big Bucks and Celestial Halo more experienced horses who are definitely heading to the race, and Nicholls post-race comments would indicate Cheltenham is not the plan this season. The ex-Champion trainer reckons this horse could be a cracking chaser in time, the best the Stewart family have had with him although I'm not sure that's saying too much, but given his fairly busy schedule so far this season giving the festival a swerve may prove to be a wise move.
However one horse that is heading to Cheltenham is Oscar Whiskey for the JLT Novices Chase and he was out in a three runner novices chase at Sandown. Predictably he won the race as odds of 1/6 suggested he would but this was certainly not the performance of a horse with serious aspirations of glory come March. There was certainly a period of time where it looked like the Alan King runner Manyriverstocross could have the favourite in trouble, however Oscar asserted as they closed in on the finish line. To be fair on the horse the ground was nothing like that on which he will face come March (I still live in hope that the weather will improve soon!) but at odds as short as 7/1 I'd not be rushing to back him for the JLT. He does have Cheltenham form over both fences and hurdles, which is worth a good deal as some horses simply do not handle the testing undulations of the course, and is a very classy horse so will definitely have his supporters in the market. I am not one of those supporters though, Taquin Du Seuil has my heart in the JLT betting, and even if he didn't Wonderful Charm only got beat 1/2 a length by Oscar Whiskey at Cheltenham trying to give the Henderson horse 8lbs. Off level weights that would have been a totally different story and that is another of the multiple reasons I have for doubting Oscar Whiskeys chances in the JLT come March.
One horse I was looking forward to seeing at Wetherby on Saturday was the JP McManus owned Shutthefrontdoor. Disappointing last time out, the horse was on something of a retrieval mission but was denied the chance to put himself back into punters ante-post thoughts after being withdrawn 30 minutes before race time. I heard on racing UK that the horse has had a breathing operation since finishing last of 4 behind Sam Winner when sent off 13/8 favourite for a Novices Chase at Cheltenham in December which meant that I was more than willing to forgive that bad run. Previous to that Shutthefrontdoor has some decent form, narrowly being beaten by Le Bec over a 3 mile 1 furlong chase in November and winning on his chasing debut at Aintree, not to mention his smart hurdle form, and I still quite like his chances if given a go in either the RSA or the 4 miler come March. You can get generous odds of 33/1 for the RSA about this horse currently while Le Bec trades at 16/1 for the same race and judging on the November form I do not think they should be that far apart in the market. Shutthefrontdoor has bags of stamina and also good Cheltenhaam form in the book - if the breathing operation has worked it's magic expect a smart performance next time out which will lead to those odds tumbling down. Definitely one to watch in my opinion.
There was a great little card up at Musselburgh on Sunday which makes a change for racing on these shores!I don't understand why we continue to have several cracking cards on a Saturday, often making it difficult to concentrate on all the racing properly, and have such low-quality fare on Sundays. I would much rather spread the racing over the weekend, and I'm sure it would be well attended as well, however we seem to be set in our ways of overloading Saturday's in this country! While I won't go into the results from that card in any depth I was pleased to see Ryan Mania ride a double in the first too races in that card especially given the sadness he would have felt at seeing his Grand National winning horse Auroras Encore retired in the week. The horse has been a fantastic servant to the Sue Smith yard and I hope he has a very enjoyable retirement.
That's all for this week, lets hope the rain eases in the weeks ahead and we can start racing on ground with 'good' sneaking into the going description sometime soon!
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