On the 4th May we have the fairer sex stepping up to the plate at Newmarket as the 3 year old fillies get the chance to strut their stuff in the 2nd Classic of the season. Also run over the 1 mile trip the 1000 Guineas is restricted to fillies only and makes up the first leg of the fillies triple crown, along with the Oaks and St Leger. Looking back at previous renewals of this race in the last 4 years we have had winners at 9/1, 25/1 and 16/1; the only winning favourite in the last 4 years came after Jacqueline's Quest, a 66/1 shot, was relegated to 2nd place after a stewards enquiry, so it may pay to look away from the market leaders. In this blog I'll have a look at the fillies that line up for this year's renewal.
Clive Brittain trains the favourite for this race in the shape of Rizeena, currently a 7/2 shot. This filly has proved her stamina for a mile and also proved a liking for this track after finishing a length behind Chriselliam over a mile back in September of last year. That form went on to receive a boost after the victor that day won at the Breeders Cup meeting, putting her in as favourite for this race. Sadly she has had to be put down since, absolutely heartbreaking for connections. Prior to that Rizeena had beaten 2nd fav in the 1000 Guineas market Tapestry over 7f in Ireland. Brittain was apparently very pleased with his filly in a piece of work, hence the decision not to use a prep run for her, so we have to take her well-being on trust. She was certainly raced plenty enough last season and did post, as previously touched on, some very smart performances. However I just feel something a bit more lightly raced could improve past her so with that in mind I'll look past the market leader in terms of an outright selection for this Classic.
Of the others at the head of the market Miss France is the one who's chances I most like for this race. She disappointed in a trial race on her seasonal reappearance but the French treat trial races as exactly that and the current price of 10/1 is very appealing considering she had been a 9/2 shot before that. The winner of the Oh So Sharp stakes over 7f at Newmarket at the back end of last year trainer Anrde Fabre won't be wasting a trip across the channel and Miss France has already proven her stamina over a mile.
Ihtimal has some very strong form over on the Tapeta surface of Meydan but may be a filly who's best will be seen over the Oaks trip given she has already won over a mile and ten furlongs. She has already been beaten by Rizeena over this course and distance 3 runs prior so is passed over. My Titania has been priced up as if she already has the form in the book to win this, which is not the case. Trained by the master trainer John Oxx her best form thus far is at Group 3 level, and while there must be plenty more to come after only three starts 8/1 is short enough. Lucky Kristale certainly has stamina to prove having done her winning last year over the 6f trip but another who I like is the Ed Dunlop trained Amazing Maria. The fact this filly handles the unique Goodwood track lends hope to the idea she will get the Newmarket dip well, she has some decent form and appears to be better at 7f than 6f so hopefully the further step up in trip off the back of a good winter will allow her to benefit from the mile test here. She was a really impressive winner of her Group 3 win last time out, winning as she liked, and has been the subject of positive reports over the winter. Ed Dunlop is no stranger to training good fillies, Snow Queen is one fine example from recent memory, and prices of 14/1 about Amazing Maria make a deal of appeal to complement 10/1 on Miss France.
Finally at a much bigger price Betimes from the John Gosden stable attracts my interest at 33/1. She is Gosden's only entry in the race and William Buick is riding, this is a trainer who rarely tries to call his ducks swans and who knows how good this filly could be off the back of one start. An easy winner of a 7f maiden at Lingfield in December she hasn't been seen since but at 33/1 the price is big enough to nibble on in the hope that Gosden knows he has a really smart one on his hands here.
1000 Guineas Selections
Main Selections Miss France and Amazing Maria
Outsider at a fancy price Betimes
Thanks for reading!
Wednesday 30 April 2014
Sunday 27 April 2014
The first Classic races of the Flat season - 2000 Guineas Ante-post
This weekend sees the first two Classic races of the 2014 Flat Racing Season at Newmarket when the Cambridgeshire venue holds the 2000 and 1000 Guineas. Both races are run over the mile of the Newmarket straight, with it's famous dip that throws many a horse out of it's stride, and the 2000 Guineas forms the first part of the rarely attempted (in recent times anyway) Triple Crown along with the Derby and the St Leger. For those that cast racing as a sports stuck in the dark ages this is actually an example of the sport throwing itself at the forefront of modernism as both races are run for equal prize money. This year see's both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas market's headed by a hot favourite, although Rizeena heading the fillies market is not quite as short as Kingman. In this blog I'll take a look firstly at the 2000 Guineas before looking at the fillies race later in the week.
2000 Guineas
After his red-hot display in the Greenham stakes at Newbury over 7f Kingman heads the market for the first Classic of the season at even money, horrendously short considering he was a 3/1 shot in the aftermath of that race and without doing anything else has shortened 2 points in the market! Ok his case is obvious; he is unbeaten thus far in his career, has all important course form having won here on his debut, his trainer John Gosden has started this season in flying form and he was tremendously pleasing on the eye on his re-appearance, leaving no doubts as to whether he had trained on from his 2 year old career. The only slight doubt is the trip, as all his racing so far has been done over 7f although the way he was going away LTO wouldn't hint at an stamina doubts. However you can be sure that the 2000 Guineas will be run at a furious pace so if Kingman is to win this he will certainly need to prove his stamina on the 3rd May.
Australia is 2nd in at the prices and master trainer Aidan O'Brien is sending his charge to Newmarket without the benefit of a prep run. Given the horses he has present in his stable O'Brien could have gallop sessions with as much strength in depth as many Grade 1 races run on the racecourse so I don't think that should be seen as a negative. Encouragingly Australia has proved he stays the trip, with a win last time out over the highly-thought of Free Eagle from the Weld stable and he isn't as reliant on the ground having a bit of give in it as the market leader. There is the possibility that Kingman won't run if the ground is too quick which would make the current price on Australia look huge but I actually would rather be on his stablemate War Command if O'Brien sent him to Newmarket. There has been a deal of talk about War Command going over the channel to contest the French equivalent of this race, which would explain his price, however those plans are not set in stone and if he was to appear at Newmarket next weekend he would warrant huge consideration. Winner of the Dewhurt stakes here last season to add to his 6 length win in the Coventry stakes, one of the biggest 2 year old races of the season, makes the form of War Command some of the best in the race. The uncertainty over his target invalidates him as an Ante-post punt really but if he turns up on the day I'd advise backing him.
Other horses towards the head of the market include Kingston Hill, however the form of his Racing Post Trophy win took a hit the other day with the 2nd out of that race Johann Strauss being thrashed on his reappearance. The Great Gatsby, further back in the field that day, gave another Guineas hopeful Toormore a bit of a scare at Newmarket last week so it's not worthless form by any means and Kingston Hill will definitely get the mile trip, indeed he is due to step up in trip after the Guineas so if they do go a good gallop that will suit Varian's charge down to the ground.
The aforementioned Toormore, the Champion 2 year old of the 2012-13 season, is as big as 7/1 for this race, a very big price in my opinion and he is certainly my pick of the market principles. He did nothing wrong on his reappearance in the Craven stakes, winning although not in the visually impressive manner that Kingman won his trial in. However Toormore isn't a flashy horse according to his trainer and only really does enough in victory so was never going to blow the field away by 10 lengths. He has some very good form in the book, including his course and distance win here last time out, stamina for the trip is assured and he will have Richard Hughes on board, one of the best jockeys in the weighing room. Toormore goes on a variety of ground, no such concerns about fast ground for this one, so its safe to say barring injury Toormore will definitely give you a run for your money if you got involved ante-post. 7/1 is a more than fair price and I can't believe he will be allowed to go off at this price on the day - he is the advised bet of the market principles.
Further out in the market we have a bit of Latino flair in the shape of the Spanish trained Noozhoh Canaries although I can't profess to knowing too much about this horse! His trainer says this horse must have a good strong gallop to be seen at his best, which the Guineas should give him, but thats about all I can tell you. He was very visually impressive in routing the field in a conditions race in Spain on his last start but I don't know what that form amounts too and he has been pricewised so this current price will have that factored into it. Outstrip, a winner at the Breeders cup last year, comes here without a prep run this season. However Godolphin have sent their 3 year olds into Classics with no prep run many a time before so that isn't a concern; more of a concern is the fact he patently didn't handle the track last time he ran here. He completely lost his action coming into the dip and I'd be very wary of backing the Appelby trained horse on the back of that. Night of Thunder was 2nd to Kingman in the Greenham, although a clear best of the rest, while Berkshire was a big disappointment in that race but could benefit from the step back up to a mile and he has form at Newmarket. He was pulling way too hard in the Greenham and never gave himself a chance, but that could have been freshness and any repetition of his very smart 2 year old form would make his current price of 40/1 seem massive. He is probably overpriced and bookies may have overreacted to his re-appearance run, prior to that he was around a 12/1 shot which is a truer reflection of his ability. He isn't certain to line up on the 3rd May but if he does I would advise taking a good look at Paul Cole's horse. Not a flashy name like O'Brien, Hannon, Gosden etc he could slip under the radar and go off a much bigger price than his form suggest he should.
2000 Guineas Selections
Head of the market - Toormore
Outsiders - Berkshire
If he turns up on the day - War Command
2000 Guineas
After his red-hot display in the Greenham stakes at Newbury over 7f Kingman heads the market for the first Classic of the season at even money, horrendously short considering he was a 3/1 shot in the aftermath of that race and without doing anything else has shortened 2 points in the market! Ok his case is obvious; he is unbeaten thus far in his career, has all important course form having won here on his debut, his trainer John Gosden has started this season in flying form and he was tremendously pleasing on the eye on his re-appearance, leaving no doubts as to whether he had trained on from his 2 year old career. The only slight doubt is the trip, as all his racing so far has been done over 7f although the way he was going away LTO wouldn't hint at an stamina doubts. However you can be sure that the 2000 Guineas will be run at a furious pace so if Kingman is to win this he will certainly need to prove his stamina on the 3rd May.
Australia is 2nd in at the prices and master trainer Aidan O'Brien is sending his charge to Newmarket without the benefit of a prep run. Given the horses he has present in his stable O'Brien could have gallop sessions with as much strength in depth as many Grade 1 races run on the racecourse so I don't think that should be seen as a negative. Encouragingly Australia has proved he stays the trip, with a win last time out over the highly-thought of Free Eagle from the Weld stable and he isn't as reliant on the ground having a bit of give in it as the market leader. There is the possibility that Kingman won't run if the ground is too quick which would make the current price on Australia look huge but I actually would rather be on his stablemate War Command if O'Brien sent him to Newmarket. There has been a deal of talk about War Command going over the channel to contest the French equivalent of this race, which would explain his price, however those plans are not set in stone and if he was to appear at Newmarket next weekend he would warrant huge consideration. Winner of the Dewhurt stakes here last season to add to his 6 length win in the Coventry stakes, one of the biggest 2 year old races of the season, makes the form of War Command some of the best in the race. The uncertainty over his target invalidates him as an Ante-post punt really but if he turns up on the day I'd advise backing him.
Other horses towards the head of the market include Kingston Hill, however the form of his Racing Post Trophy win took a hit the other day with the 2nd out of that race Johann Strauss being thrashed on his reappearance. The Great Gatsby, further back in the field that day, gave another Guineas hopeful Toormore a bit of a scare at Newmarket last week so it's not worthless form by any means and Kingston Hill will definitely get the mile trip, indeed he is due to step up in trip after the Guineas so if they do go a good gallop that will suit Varian's charge down to the ground.
The aforementioned Toormore, the Champion 2 year old of the 2012-13 season, is as big as 7/1 for this race, a very big price in my opinion and he is certainly my pick of the market principles. He did nothing wrong on his reappearance in the Craven stakes, winning although not in the visually impressive manner that Kingman won his trial in. However Toormore isn't a flashy horse according to his trainer and only really does enough in victory so was never going to blow the field away by 10 lengths. He has some very good form in the book, including his course and distance win here last time out, stamina for the trip is assured and he will have Richard Hughes on board, one of the best jockeys in the weighing room. Toormore goes on a variety of ground, no such concerns about fast ground for this one, so its safe to say barring injury Toormore will definitely give you a run for your money if you got involved ante-post. 7/1 is a more than fair price and I can't believe he will be allowed to go off at this price on the day - he is the advised bet of the market principles.
Further out in the market we have a bit of Latino flair in the shape of the Spanish trained Noozhoh Canaries although I can't profess to knowing too much about this horse! His trainer says this horse must have a good strong gallop to be seen at his best, which the Guineas should give him, but thats about all I can tell you. He was very visually impressive in routing the field in a conditions race in Spain on his last start but I don't know what that form amounts too and he has been pricewised so this current price will have that factored into it. Outstrip, a winner at the Breeders cup last year, comes here without a prep run this season. However Godolphin have sent their 3 year olds into Classics with no prep run many a time before so that isn't a concern; more of a concern is the fact he patently didn't handle the track last time he ran here. He completely lost his action coming into the dip and I'd be very wary of backing the Appelby trained horse on the back of that. Night of Thunder was 2nd to Kingman in the Greenham, although a clear best of the rest, while Berkshire was a big disappointment in that race but could benefit from the step back up to a mile and he has form at Newmarket. He was pulling way too hard in the Greenham and never gave himself a chance, but that could have been freshness and any repetition of his very smart 2 year old form would make his current price of 40/1 seem massive. He is probably overpriced and bookies may have overreacted to his re-appearance run, prior to that he was around a 12/1 shot which is a truer reflection of his ability. He isn't certain to line up on the 3rd May but if he does I would advise taking a good look at Paul Cole's horse. Not a flashy name like O'Brien, Hannon, Gosden etc he could slip under the radar and go off a much bigger price than his form suggest he should.
2000 Guineas Selections
Head of the market - Toormore
Outsiders - Berkshire
If he turns up on the day - War Command
Friday 25 April 2014
The finale of the British Jumps Season - Sandown on Saturday
It's been a great season with new faces on the jockey circuit, new horses crowned Champions, Paul Nicholls comfortably regaining his trainers title but same old AP McCoy; always winning and once again this Saturday will see 'The Champ' officially crowned Champion Jump Jockey for the 19th consecutive season. 19 years in a row this man has ridden more winners over obstacles than any other - what an incredible feat and one I doubt will ever be beaten. It's a decent card at Sandown to bring the curtain down on the season, with the big betting race being the Bet365 Gold Cup and I've had a look at the card for some late opportunities to try and line our pockets.
2.05 Juvenile Hurdle
Baradai is the selection here and I'm really keen on him. Venetia William's horse was running a really good race at the end of the Fred Winter at Cheltenham and could well have finished closer to the winner had he got going sooner. However he was going really well at the end of that race and, although a faller LTO at Aintree, that will ensure he comes here fresher than he would have had he finished that race. Proven on soft going he can make up for his fall at Aintree and help Aiden Coleman get even closer to a century of winners this season.
3.15 Celebration Chase
This really should see Gary Moore's admirable Champion Chaser Sire De Grugy crown a great season with victory here, although he is a very short price. I feel that until we see him take on Sprinter Sacre he won't get the credit he deserves for his victories but hopefully that will come next season. Pepite Rose will be loving the forecast rain and gets a mares allowance, she could chase SDG home.
3.50 Bet365 Gold Cup
There are quite a few horses lining up here on the back of runs in the Grand National at Aintree earlier this month; Burton Port (Unseated at the 2nd fence, of interest here on the basis of his Newbury return to form) and Rose of the Moon (got as far as the 26th fence and also burst, line safely through this one) are two such horses and Burton Port actually makes quite a bit of appeal. He was fancied for the Aintree showpiece and having unshipped his jockey so early into that contest should come here a fairly fresh horse. Prior to that he had shown signs of a return to form when tried in cheekpeices at Newbury and if those tactics can work again here he could go well. Will stay this trip as well which, in a race where so many won't, will hold him in good stead. For example Bury Parade and Bally Legend come here with form tying together from a big handicap at Kenpton. However both their form has come over shorter trips and Sandown, a stiff track anyway, will present a thorough test of stamina over this 3 m 5 f trip.
Carruthers would be an extremely popular winner and he certainly won't be found wanting for stamina. While he did contest the Grand National he goes down as one who unshipped his rider early on in the Grand National so that shouldn't have taken much out of him here. There are a few reasons why I like this popular chaser; his front-running, bold style could well see Sandown bring out the best in the old 12 year old, he won't be inconvenienced by soft conditions and is well versed in winning big handicaps having taken the Hennessy in his time. I think the veteran is worth a nibble at 20/1.
I did really fancy Godsmejudge in the Scottish Grand National, however I think this run could come too soon on the back of that really good 2nd place and he is passed over here so for my final selection (to go with Carruthers)we head to Ardkilly Witness. This horse has been aimed at this race for a while by Grand National winning trainer Dr Richard Newland and comes into this on a very nice weight of 10-4. He looks to have a very good chance; he has good recent form and jumps round the tricky Railway fences very well judged on previous evidence. At 10/1 he hasn't been missed in the market but I do feel he holds a really good chance and I'd take him of those at the head of the market.
Those are my main fancies for the concluding card of the National Hunt season. Punchestown is on the horizon for all the jumps enthusiasts and looks like being a cracking festival as always. However after this I'm going to start focusing on the flat, especially with the Guineas only a week away. And on the flat front I think it's worth checking out Amralah in the 7.35 at Doncaster tomorrow; Will Buick makes the journey up to Town Moor for just the one ride and I doubt he is doing it without being assured this one has a very good chance. At 6/1 in a 16 runner field a place is the very least the talented and in form jockey will be hoping for.
Thanks again for reading!
2.05 Juvenile Hurdle
Baradai is the selection here and I'm really keen on him. Venetia William's horse was running a really good race at the end of the Fred Winter at Cheltenham and could well have finished closer to the winner had he got going sooner. However he was going really well at the end of that race and, although a faller LTO at Aintree, that will ensure he comes here fresher than he would have had he finished that race. Proven on soft going he can make up for his fall at Aintree and help Aiden Coleman get even closer to a century of winners this season.
3.15 Celebration Chase
This really should see Gary Moore's admirable Champion Chaser Sire De Grugy crown a great season with victory here, although he is a very short price. I feel that until we see him take on Sprinter Sacre he won't get the credit he deserves for his victories but hopefully that will come next season. Pepite Rose will be loving the forecast rain and gets a mares allowance, she could chase SDG home.
3.50 Bet365 Gold Cup
There are quite a few horses lining up here on the back of runs in the Grand National at Aintree earlier this month; Burton Port (Unseated at the 2nd fence, of interest here on the basis of his Newbury return to form) and Rose of the Moon (got as far as the 26th fence and also burst, line safely through this one) are two such horses and Burton Port actually makes quite a bit of appeal. He was fancied for the Aintree showpiece and having unshipped his jockey so early into that contest should come here a fairly fresh horse. Prior to that he had shown signs of a return to form when tried in cheekpeices at Newbury and if those tactics can work again here he could go well. Will stay this trip as well which, in a race where so many won't, will hold him in good stead. For example Bury Parade and Bally Legend come here with form tying together from a big handicap at Kenpton. However both their form has come over shorter trips and Sandown, a stiff track anyway, will present a thorough test of stamina over this 3 m 5 f trip.
Carruthers would be an extremely popular winner and he certainly won't be found wanting for stamina. While he did contest the Grand National he goes down as one who unshipped his rider early on in the Grand National so that shouldn't have taken much out of him here. There are a few reasons why I like this popular chaser; his front-running, bold style could well see Sandown bring out the best in the old 12 year old, he won't be inconvenienced by soft conditions and is well versed in winning big handicaps having taken the Hennessy in his time. I think the veteran is worth a nibble at 20/1.
I did really fancy Godsmejudge in the Scottish Grand National, however I think this run could come too soon on the back of that really good 2nd place and he is passed over here so for my final selection (to go with Carruthers)we head to Ardkilly Witness. This horse has been aimed at this race for a while by Grand National winning trainer Dr Richard Newland and comes into this on a very nice weight of 10-4. He looks to have a very good chance; he has good recent form and jumps round the tricky Railway fences very well judged on previous evidence. At 10/1 he hasn't been missed in the market but I do feel he holds a really good chance and I'd take him of those at the head of the market.
Those are my main fancies for the concluding card of the National Hunt season. Punchestown is on the horizon for all the jumps enthusiasts and looks like being a cracking festival as always. However after this I'm going to start focusing on the flat, especially with the Guineas only a week away. And on the flat front I think it's worth checking out Amralah in the 7.35 at Doncaster tomorrow; Will Buick makes the journey up to Town Moor for just the one ride and I doubt he is doing it without being assured this one has a very good chance. At 6/1 in a 16 runner field a place is the very least the talented and in form jockey will be hoping for.
Thanks again for reading!
Sunday 20 April 2014
Bank Holiday Action at Fairyhouse
A Quick Look Back
Just a quick look back firstly on a cracking Good Friday, judging by the turnout with over 8,000 in attendance at Lingfield it was greatly appreciated by the paying public and I'm sure jockeys are more keen on turning out in front of big crowds for decent pots as opposed to the standard midweek fare. One of the arguments against Good Friday racing was that it wouldn't give the jockey's a break, however if George Baker's opinion is a fair representation of the weighing room then it would seem they love it as he was really positive in an interview I heard him give to Timeform Radio. It's not as if shops and the like are remaining closed at Easter any longer, society has changed and it is welcome to see racing change with it for once! This is a great opportunity to get people watching our sport with the double Bank Holiday and we saw a really good card at Lingfield. Grandeur was an impressive winner of the finale, after hearing Noseda post-race I can't believe I bothered trying to oppose him but our selection was a good 2nd at 7/1. I was pleased to bag the winner of the Apprentice race for the blog in addition to Ertijaal who deserves to line up for the 2000 Guineas after a couple of good successes over winter now. The crowd were even treated to an Adam Kirby trademark ride as he stormed to victory on board Living the Life in the mares race, off a slow pace he produced his classic kick off bend into the home straight to win by 3 and 1/2 lengths, justifying the trainers decision to replace the stable jockey with Kirby. Overall the day was a great success and I hope the series can use this as a platform to build on going into the 2014/2015 season.
After a quieter weekend than usual we get some cracking action back over the Irish sea at their Irish Grand National meeting at Fairyhouse on Bank Holiday Monday. I really enjoy this card but I must warn you, like the English Grand National I have a terrible record of picking the winner! This year the feature race at 5.00pm doesn't look easy to call by any stretch of the imagination but I'll try my best and I'll check out some of the supporting races as well.
2.45 Tayto Hurdle
Unbeaten on Irish Soil Kitten Rock lines up here in the capable hands of Barry Geraghty, trainer Edward O'Grady deciding to miss the major festivals so far this season in order to be kept fresh for this task. He faces a few rivals who have been to the well more often than he this season, including Ivan Grozny, Gerdago and likely favorite Clarcam who were all well beaten in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham (or in the case of Clarcam a faller when admittedly travelling well) and Lindenhurst and Plinth, both well behind Tiger Roll in the Triumph Hurdle. It concerns me slightly that Fairyhouse could well be an afterthought for connections of these young, less-battle hardened horses, after all Cheltenham takes a huge deal out of a horse. Clarcam will head the market after running a really good 2nd to Guitar Pete at Aintree, however with two back to back festival races the fresher Kitten Rock can maintain his unbeaten record on Irish soil in the opener on Monday.
3.15 Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle
This Grade 2 race has some Cheltenham form with Get Me Out Of Here coming over from England after finishing behind Whisper at Cheltenham, the winner having franked that form well since. GMOOH is 2nd top on official ratings behind Thousand Stars, although I'm not too convinced a step back in trip is what the Mullins horse wants at this stage of his career and do prefer the chances of Jonjo O'Neil's charge here. GMOOH also finished closer to Whisper than Thousand Stars could so on a line through that horse should be up to beating TS here. Mourad, wearing blinkers for the first time, has been pretty disappointing this season but one at the other end of the age-scale is Un Beau Matin for Gordon Elliott who has been coming along OK this season and enters this race off the back of a win last time out. However he didn't beat much that day and has previously been seen off by the likes of Dunguib, Zaidpour and City Slicker this season, and don't think he is up to winning this. Interestingly Wingtips lines up here off the back of a 4 month break and with a first time tongue-tie on, an indication of a possible breathing operation or at the least a slight tweak and any market support for this fellow could be worth watching for. Upsie is of interest receiving weight from the field , however I think Barry Geraghty can prove an extremely able deputy in the place of the suspended AP McCoy and take this on board Get Me Out Of Here.
5.00 Irish Grand National
Cantlow heads the weights for this 3 mile 5 furlong chase and would make for a hugely popular winner with Andrew McNamara on top. I thought Shutthefrontdoor would run far better than he eventually did at Cheltenham after news of his breathing operation broke, however he didn't jump that well there and it may be that he will benefit from the assistance of a professional jockey on board to help him over his obstacles and is certainly not one to rule out. The drying ground will be in his favour. If Sraid Padraig jumps better than he did at Cheltenham he is also in with a big should, he absolutely ploughed through everything that day and still didn't disgrace himself; down a few lbs in the weights an improved round of jumping could see him in with a chance as well.
Looking at the market leaders, one massive stat we must bear in mind is that each of the last 11 winners did so carrying a weight of 10-12 or less which would just about rule out the aforementioned Shutthefrontdoor (4th fav at the time of writing) as well as the likes of Home Farm(2nd fav), Oscars Well and Cause of Clauses. We've seen a few go in at big prices in recent years so don't let market position put you off whatever you fancy.
A few more I do like and for whom a case can certainly be made for; Pendra, who ran well at Cheltenham to finish 3rd and the step up in trip may find some improvement. Goonyella, his trainer and their family have a wonderful record in this race although I would need to see the rain come with the ground currently good and apparently drying all the time. Daring Article, for whom the drying ground will massively be in his favor and for he won't be worried by the large field as he has plenty of big-field handicap experience. Finally Tammys Hill, a winner of the Foxhunters at Cheltenham who looks to be on a decent mark, however he hasn't been missed in the market and could go off favorite.
I'm going to side with the Jonjo O'Neil trainer Alfie Sherrin as my main selection here. A good third in this race two years ago he has now dropped by 7lbs in the weights since then. Sent of favorite for a handicap at the Cheltenham festival he could only finish 7th but the form of that race is working out very well with the first and 2nd coming out and winning since. Alfie Sherrin hasn't been running badly by any means in the last couple of years, with a couple of 4th places finishes in big handicaps to his name, and with a further ease in the weights, at a course he goes well at, he can take this at a juicy price - 25/1 at the time of writing. Others I would have an e/w nibble on would be Daring Article if the ground keeps drying, Goonyella if the rains come and Pendra who could still be on a really good mark as his trainer was putting him up as his best chance of the Cheltenham festival upon hearing his handicap mark for the Coral Cup.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the racing this Bank Holiday Monday, there's certainly plenty of it!
Just a quick look back firstly on a cracking Good Friday, judging by the turnout with over 8,000 in attendance at Lingfield it was greatly appreciated by the paying public and I'm sure jockeys are more keen on turning out in front of big crowds for decent pots as opposed to the standard midweek fare. One of the arguments against Good Friday racing was that it wouldn't give the jockey's a break, however if George Baker's opinion is a fair representation of the weighing room then it would seem they love it as he was really positive in an interview I heard him give to Timeform Radio. It's not as if shops and the like are remaining closed at Easter any longer, society has changed and it is welcome to see racing change with it for once! This is a great opportunity to get people watching our sport with the double Bank Holiday and we saw a really good card at Lingfield. Grandeur was an impressive winner of the finale, after hearing Noseda post-race I can't believe I bothered trying to oppose him but our selection was a good 2nd at 7/1. I was pleased to bag the winner of the Apprentice race for the blog in addition to Ertijaal who deserves to line up for the 2000 Guineas after a couple of good successes over winter now. The crowd were even treated to an Adam Kirby trademark ride as he stormed to victory on board Living the Life in the mares race, off a slow pace he produced his classic kick off bend into the home straight to win by 3 and 1/2 lengths, justifying the trainers decision to replace the stable jockey with Kirby. Overall the day was a great success and I hope the series can use this as a platform to build on going into the 2014/2015 season.
After a quieter weekend than usual we get some cracking action back over the Irish sea at their Irish Grand National meeting at Fairyhouse on Bank Holiday Monday. I really enjoy this card but I must warn you, like the English Grand National I have a terrible record of picking the winner! This year the feature race at 5.00pm doesn't look easy to call by any stretch of the imagination but I'll try my best and I'll check out some of the supporting races as well.
2.45 Tayto Hurdle
Unbeaten on Irish Soil Kitten Rock lines up here in the capable hands of Barry Geraghty, trainer Edward O'Grady deciding to miss the major festivals so far this season in order to be kept fresh for this task. He faces a few rivals who have been to the well more often than he this season, including Ivan Grozny, Gerdago and likely favorite Clarcam who were all well beaten in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham (or in the case of Clarcam a faller when admittedly travelling well) and Lindenhurst and Plinth, both well behind Tiger Roll in the Triumph Hurdle. It concerns me slightly that Fairyhouse could well be an afterthought for connections of these young, less-battle hardened horses, after all Cheltenham takes a huge deal out of a horse. Clarcam will head the market after running a really good 2nd to Guitar Pete at Aintree, however with two back to back festival races the fresher Kitten Rock can maintain his unbeaten record on Irish soil in the opener on Monday.
3.15 Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle
This Grade 2 race has some Cheltenham form with Get Me Out Of Here coming over from England after finishing behind Whisper at Cheltenham, the winner having franked that form well since. GMOOH is 2nd top on official ratings behind Thousand Stars, although I'm not too convinced a step back in trip is what the Mullins horse wants at this stage of his career and do prefer the chances of Jonjo O'Neil's charge here. GMOOH also finished closer to Whisper than Thousand Stars could so on a line through that horse should be up to beating TS here. Mourad, wearing blinkers for the first time, has been pretty disappointing this season but one at the other end of the age-scale is Un Beau Matin for Gordon Elliott who has been coming along OK this season and enters this race off the back of a win last time out. However he didn't beat much that day and has previously been seen off by the likes of Dunguib, Zaidpour and City Slicker this season, and don't think he is up to winning this. Interestingly Wingtips lines up here off the back of a 4 month break and with a first time tongue-tie on, an indication of a possible breathing operation or at the least a slight tweak and any market support for this fellow could be worth watching for. Upsie is of interest receiving weight from the field , however I think Barry Geraghty can prove an extremely able deputy in the place of the suspended AP McCoy and take this on board Get Me Out Of Here.
5.00 Irish Grand National
Cantlow heads the weights for this 3 mile 5 furlong chase and would make for a hugely popular winner with Andrew McNamara on top. I thought Shutthefrontdoor would run far better than he eventually did at Cheltenham after news of his breathing operation broke, however he didn't jump that well there and it may be that he will benefit from the assistance of a professional jockey on board to help him over his obstacles and is certainly not one to rule out. The drying ground will be in his favour. If Sraid Padraig jumps better than he did at Cheltenham he is also in with a big should, he absolutely ploughed through everything that day and still didn't disgrace himself; down a few lbs in the weights an improved round of jumping could see him in with a chance as well.
Looking at the market leaders, one massive stat we must bear in mind is that each of the last 11 winners did so carrying a weight of 10-12 or less which would just about rule out the aforementioned Shutthefrontdoor (4th fav at the time of writing) as well as the likes of Home Farm(2nd fav), Oscars Well and Cause of Clauses. We've seen a few go in at big prices in recent years so don't let market position put you off whatever you fancy.
A few more I do like and for whom a case can certainly be made for; Pendra, who ran well at Cheltenham to finish 3rd and the step up in trip may find some improvement. Goonyella, his trainer and their family have a wonderful record in this race although I would need to see the rain come with the ground currently good and apparently drying all the time. Daring Article, for whom the drying ground will massively be in his favor and for he won't be worried by the large field as he has plenty of big-field handicap experience. Finally Tammys Hill, a winner of the Foxhunters at Cheltenham who looks to be on a decent mark, however he hasn't been missed in the market and could go off favorite.
I'm going to side with the Jonjo O'Neil trainer Alfie Sherrin as my main selection here. A good third in this race two years ago he has now dropped by 7lbs in the weights since then. Sent of favorite for a handicap at the Cheltenham festival he could only finish 7th but the form of that race is working out very well with the first and 2nd coming out and winning since. Alfie Sherrin hasn't been running badly by any means in the last couple of years, with a couple of 4th places finishes in big handicaps to his name, and with a further ease in the weights, at a course he goes well at, he can take this at a juicy price - 25/1 at the time of writing. Others I would have an e/w nibble on would be Daring Article if the ground keeps drying, Goonyella if the rains come and Pendra who could still be on a really good mark as his trainer was putting him up as his best chance of the Cheltenham festival upon hearing his handicap mark for the Coral Cup.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the racing this Bank Holiday Monday, there's certainly plenty of it!
Thursday 17 April 2014
Fun on the All-Weather at Lingfield Park
This Friday sees Lingfield Park stage the richest all-weather
card in Europe as the course plays host to the climax of the inaugural All
Weather Championships held in Britain. Horses running on Friday have had to
qualify through either running three times on the all-weather this winter or by
winning one of the many fast track qualifying events that have been held over
the season, which has been great for the all-weather racing scene as it
provides a direction for the season and ensures we get to see a better quality
of horse out on the sand. Each race on finals day, bar the fillies and mares race, have had 3 of these qualifiers in the run up to the big day giving punters plenty of chances to see the better horses out around Southwell, Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton. Indeed the average Timeform rating for winners on the
all-weather this season is actually up 4lbs, so it would appear the
Championship is certainly having a positive effect on the quality of fare on
show, and the number of bookmaking sponsors for the Championship Final day
indicates betting turnover has benefited as well as punters see familiar names
out on the tracks and back them accordingly. The likes of Hawkeyethenoo, Sirius Prospect and Grandeur are
all names commonly associated with good quality turf racing so it is great to
see them out on the all-weather and is a real boost for the Championship series
in its first year. We’ve got 6 Championship races and 1 apprentice race for our
entertainment this Friday, with £1,000,000 on offer in prize money, so lets get
cracking and check out the card.
We open with an apprentice handicap and in these races in
can often be as important to check who is on top of your selection as much as
the horse itself. The classic Lingfield ride, as trademarked by Adam Kirby, is
to sit close to the pace and use the home turn as a slingshot, making an
aggressive move into the home straight, and the jockeys in the opener could do
worse than study some of Kirby’s rides throughout the winter. This card-opener
is a class 2 race, and not that many of the field bring recent class 2 form to
the table. Of those that do Viewpoint has probably the best on offer with a
close 2nd to Brass Ring last time out over course and distance and
races here on the same racing weight after the jockey’s claim has been taken
into account. Grendisar has been plying his trade around Lingfield for most of
the winter but has only won in lower grade races while The Lock Master has been
in fine form of late but his class 2 win came at Southwell and I feel he is a
bit of a Southwell specialist. Commissar was well beaten behind Viewpoint last
time out and there is no reason he should reverse that form at the weights. Icebuster,
in the very capable hands of Shelley Birkett, may benefit from the switch back
to Lingfield and a shorter trip that previously sent over on excursions to this
venue but I return to Viewpoint as my selection. Drawn well in stall 2 around this tight turning track, he
started the season off on a mark of 96 so this mark should be well in his compass where winning is concerned. Jockey Cam Hardie has ridden winners around the course so will know what
is required to win here and Richard Hannon has started off his first season in
full charge well, a tick in the trainer and jockey box. I like that Viewpoint
has recent form around here and is still below his last winning mark, albeit only
by 1lb and he can be taken to win the opener.
Next up we have the Fillies and Mares going over 7f and to
be honest this looks quite a weak race for the prize money and grade. As in the
opener not that many horses have class 2 form, with most of the form on offer
of class 4 and 5, so again I will hope that quality will come to the fore. I’ll
keen the analysis short here as I really don’t think too much of most of these
and plump for Glastonberry as the selection. Graham Lee takes the ride on the
last-time-out winner who has course and distance form in the book. Drawn nicely
in stall 2 Glastonberry has the tactical speed for this 7f trip whereas many of
her market rivals, such as Fashion Line and High Time Too, have been winning over further
and it can be questioned whether the tight Lingfield track will suit them. Only
raised 2lbs since her last win I think Glastonberry can take this weak looking
race.
Up at 2:55 we have the 3 year old championship contest where Ertijaal will be the starting, and finishing for many, point in the race. He overcame a very wide draw to win the Spring Cup over C&D on his previous start, and on his debut was good enough to finish 1/4 a length second to the Champion 2 year old of 2013 Toormore who won at Newmarket on Thursday. Given a far kinder drawn in stall three this time it will take a very smart one to prevent Hanagan from getting this one over the line in front, especially considering the red-hot form of the stable. American Hope was flying at the finish of the aforementioned Spring Cup, catching the eye of many, but couldn't get to Ertijaal and there is no obvious reason why that order should be reversed especially with connections voicing their concerns with the short turnaround between his last race and this; ditto with many of the others in the field that were behind the winner that day. I was interested to hear Mark Johnson put up Lady Frances as a horse he was really looking forward to on Championship day. She is quite the all-weather specialist and has had her season framed around this race. She will appreciate this step back up in trip, having found things happening a bit too quick last time out, and with winning pilot Joe Fanning back on board she could outrun her price. Passing Star has done nothing wrong so far, winning weaker races than this on each of his three starts, and drawn in stall 2 could have more to come. He returns from mile trips at Kempton, a more galloping track, to this sharper 7f trip here but has won over C&D before and if they go hard in front could well be one to finish well and grab a place. An interesting contender is Complicit, Paul Cole's charge, who won over C&D back here in November before going over to France and winning there. He hasn't been seen since but is unbeaten under jockey Graham Lee and with form over 5,6,7 and 8 furlongs appears very tactically versatile. I would actually take Complicit to follow the standout horse in the race, Ertijaal, home. However I just can't see past Ertijaal for win purposes. He was impressive in victory last time out here, with Paul Hanagan seemingly keen to do just enough to win. With a far kinder draw, the benefit of that run and his class edge he should be picking up the £93,000 on offer to the winner of this 3 year old conditions stakes.
The longest race of the day follows at 3.30 with the 2 mile Marathon Championship, a competitive heat where, in contrast to the first two races, there is a lot of class 2 and above form brought to the table here. Arch Villain, Castilo Del Diablo, Litigant, Masterful Act and Blue Wave all bring recent winning form in class 2 races so are all bang in there with a form chance. The one I most like here though is Blue Wave, the Mark Johnston gelding, who is stepping up in trip here from 1 mile 1/2 furlong to the 2 mile trip. This in itself could be seen as a positive as Johnston's horses invariably improve for the step up in trip and I certainly am hopeful the extra distance could see improvement from Blue Wave. The fact stable jockey Joe Fanning has gone for the proven stamina of Hunting Ground doesn't overly concern me as Adam Kirby is a more than able deputy, especially around Lingfield. The sharper nature of this track means that this is an ideal place to test out a step up in trip as well so Blue Wave will be given every chance to prove he lasts home, however if the race turns out to be run at a slow pace as some all-weather races can be will certainly have the pace to burn his rivals off. Litigant will prove a stern test of Blue Wave's winning credentials and his last bit of form, when he won a fast-track qualifier over this C&D, is very strong form. At the prices however I'm taking a chance that the step up in trip can see even more improvement from Blue Wave and he is the selection here.
The sprint is the next race up on the card and this looks a really tricky contest to call. Valbchek won the first fast-track qualifier here in November in really impressive fashion, lowering the course record in the process, but hasn't been seen since and his trainer Jeremy Noseda admits he is a very in and out performer so in a race this competitive we may have to swerve him. He also picked up an injury when out in Dubai, a little concerning, but he has been prepped for this race and is clearly a huge danger if turning up on a going day. Tarooq has won the last twice, both over C&D here, and looks a horse on the up while Dean Ivory, a top sprint trainer, is represented by the Lancelot Du Lac who was beaten by Tarooq earlier in the season when trying to give Tarooq 4lbs, a difficult task in all fairness. The selection here though is William Muir's Stepper Point, a 16/1 winner of a fast-track qualifier over 5f here last time out. That was his first run following a gelding operation and he looks to have really benefited from the chop considering how impressively he won that race. The way he was going clear at the end suggests that this 6f trip should be well within his grasp, and he has also won the Beverly Bullet over a stiff 5 furlongs. In a competitive heat he is taken to lead them home
The penultimate race on the card is the Mile Championships where we see Captain Cat, strongly fancied for the Lincoln in some quarters, line up here after missing the Doncaster race due to ground concerns. He has been progressing nicely on the all-weather this season, winning over a mile round Kempton, and was only beaten here LTO by Robin Hoods Bay, who has franked that form since in the Winter Derby. Chookie Royal is rated 5lbs clear of anything else in the field on official figures here so racing off level weights has an obvious chance after flopping in a handicap last time. Noble Citizen has been running well this season, winning round Southwell a couple of times, however he may be somewhat of a fibresand specialist while George Guru is a multiple winner of class 2 races this season but at the age of 7 may not have much improvement left in him, and improvement is required for him to win here. Quite the opposite of George Guru is Grey Mirage, an upwardly mobile year old who has won 3 of his last 4 starts under the stewardship of Marco Botti. Ryan Moore takes the ride here and he could well be up to winning this if the improvement of late can continue. I'm siding with the badly drawn but serious horse Sirius Prospect here (pardon the pun). Dean Ivory's horse brings some really good turf form to the table and Robert Winston, a regular all-weather jockey, will know what is required to overcome the wide draw here so will give him every chance of winning from the car park. A winner of a class 1 listed event at York last summer over 7f as well as putting in a good effort over 6f in a class 1 grade 2 race at Ascot he certainly has the tactical speed to help Winston out and he showed he goes on the all-weather with a listed contest victory over a mile at Kempton in November. He looks to have been saved for this big day since then and he is the selection in a good looking mile contest.
The last race on the card is the most valuable race ever held on the all-weather in Britain weighing in with £200,000 up for grabs in prize money and takes place over 1 mile 2 furlongs. Robin Hoods Bay lines up here on the back of a C&D win here last month in the Winter Derby where he had Grandeur, the favorite for this race, in behind that day. However Grandeur had a wide draw to overcome there and connections decided to try and ride him differently to compensate, with the end result being a very disappointing run for this globetrotting 5 year old. Ryan Moore and trainer Jeremy Noseda have vowed to go back to the tactics that served Grandeur so well in the past, and with a far kinder draw his chance is there for all to see as the class act in the race. Robin Hoods Bay has another kind draw here and can be expected to give another good account of himself, as can Solar Deity, although he has done most of his running over shorter trips and could struggle if this turns into a stamina test.With the red-hot form of the Gosden stable Dick Doughtywylie has to be in with a shout; although he was behind Robin Hoods Bay in the Winter Derby (He also had a bad draw) he has won a Class 1 event round here beating some decent horses like Tales of Grimm, Galician and Gatewood in the process so has the form to figure. Indeed at the likely prices, with Grandeur around the 9/4 mark and Dick Doughtywylie out at 10/1 he looks decent value . I expect Grandeur to go off shorter as well as punters latch onto a familiar name so I'll put up the Gosden horse as the selection here.
There we go, a preview of all 7 races at Lingfield on the inaugural Championship Final day. All the best to the course and I hope the day goes really well as this series has really boosted the reputation of all-weather racing in Britain this season. It's been good fun so far and the races on offer on Good Friday look capable of giving it the send off it deserves.
Good luck and thanks for reading.
The last race on the card is the most valuable race ever held on the all-weather in Britain weighing in with £200,000 up for grabs in prize money and takes place over 1 mile 2 furlongs. Robin Hoods Bay lines up here on the back of a C&D win here last month in the Winter Derby where he had Grandeur, the favorite for this race, in behind that day. However Grandeur had a wide draw to overcome there and connections decided to try and ride him differently to compensate, with the end result being a very disappointing run for this globetrotting 5 year old. Ryan Moore and trainer Jeremy Noseda have vowed to go back to the tactics that served Grandeur so well in the past, and with a far kinder draw his chance is there for all to see as the class act in the race. Robin Hoods Bay has another kind draw here and can be expected to give another good account of himself, as can Solar Deity, although he has done most of his running over shorter trips and could struggle if this turns into a stamina test.With the red-hot form of the Gosden stable Dick Doughtywylie has to be in with a shout; although he was behind Robin Hoods Bay in the Winter Derby (He also had a bad draw) he has won a Class 1 event round here beating some decent horses like Tales of Grimm, Galician and Gatewood in the process so has the form to figure. Indeed at the likely prices, with Grandeur around the 9/4 mark and Dick Doughtywylie out at 10/1 he looks decent value . I expect Grandeur to go off shorter as well as punters latch onto a familiar name so I'll put up the Gosden horse as the selection here.
There we go, a preview of all 7 races at Lingfield on the inaugural Championship Final day. All the best to the course and I hope the day goes really well as this series has really boosted the reputation of all-weather racing in Britain this season. It's been good fun so far and the races on offer on Good Friday look capable of giving it the send off it deserves.
Good luck and thanks for reading.
Sunday 13 April 2014
Kingman - I don't hear any bubbles bursting!
Wow. Often on the flat we have horses who are hyped up as 2 year olds and then never make the transition to successful 3 year olds; they may not develop as expected physically over the winter, they may have been tried too hard too young in their careers or we may just get carried away and the horse gets bigged up more than their ability deserves when we have no turf action on the track to occupy our thoughts. However Kingman would certainly not appear to be in danger of falling into that bracket. I had ruled out betting on John Gosden's charge before the Greenham stakes as I wasn't sure how forward he would be nor how hot the opposition would prove to be. However the way Kingman routed the opposition at Newbury on Saturday was stunning and made those two concerns seem very over-cautious! James Doyle barely had to get serious on the 15/8 favourite as he saw off Night of Thunder by 4 and a half lengths and the layers were impressed enough to cut him in from around 6/1 to a best priced 3/1 for the 2000 Guineas proper in May. His trainer afterwards warned he wouldn't turn up at Newmarket if the ground got too quick so if I was the clerk of the course at Newmarket I'd be doing all in my power watering-wise to get some good ground as Kingman vs Australia could be a rivalry to better last season's Dawn Approach vs Toronado. Kingman travelled beautifully and quickened so impressively and instantly, and if Australia is as good as the O'Brien hype machine would have you believe the 2000 Guineas will be staking an early claim for race of the season!
In the Fred Darling, a trial for the 1000 Guineas, we saw strong market support for Brian Meehan's J Wonder rewarded as the filly produced a late burst to take victory from Al Thakhira and the slow starting Joyeuse. Meehan rarely enters his horses in races they don't have a chance of winning, especially the good ones anyway, and his post-race comments left us in no doubt that he holds this filly in high regard. Neither of the first three are certain to go for the English 1000 Guineas, with all holding entries in the French version as well which may provide softer ground, but the winner was cut in to 16/1 from 50/1 pre-race for the English 1000. I was quite taken by Joyeuse in this race actually, despite finishing third. The half-sister to Frankel was held up in rear at the start of the race and managed to finish off very well. If James Doyle adopted more positive tactics in the 1000 Guineas I'd be confident of a better showing especially considering the extra 1f and it would be fantastic if Lady Cecil could had the winner of the 1000 Guineas, especially considering what a wonderful handler of fillies the Late Henry Cecil was.
Up at Ayr any blog followers (I doubt there are many left after my Grand National tips!) would have been in clover as both Cockney Sparrow and Eduard won, and Godsmejudge claimed 2nd place to reward e/w players. Although I wanted Godsmejudge to win if any other horse could have taken glory it would be one ridden by Jamie Moore. I think he is a great character and a great jockey to have in the sport, one a viewer can really warm to. He interviews really well and this caps a fantastic season in which he has ridden Sire De Grugy to many a success, including the Cheltenham triumph; really well deserved for a jockey who's family name is more commonly associated with the flat game.
My Tent or Yours could not shoulder a welter burder to victory in the Scottish Champion Hurdle and Cockney Sparrow benefitted from a fine tactical ride by Dean Pratt, a jockey who looks great value for his 7lbs claim based on the way he swooped late on John Quinn's mare to take this prize. MTOY's still pulled hard despite the application of a hood, and he also clattered a fair few hurdles on his way round. It could be that he needs a fence in front of him to get him to respect the obstacles a bit more, perhaps chasing may get him to settle a bit better as well, and it will be interesting to see what Henderson does with him next year.
This week we have the Newmarket Craven meeting to look forward to, with some more Guineas trials included, in addition to the inaugural All Weather Championship Finals day at Lingfield on Good Friday. A grand total of over £1 million has been put up as prize money and I hope the event is a success as it has given me a bit more interest in the sand over the winter as well as adding a bit more purpose to the British all weather season. Enjoy and thanks, as always, for reading.
In the Fred Darling, a trial for the 1000 Guineas, we saw strong market support for Brian Meehan's J Wonder rewarded as the filly produced a late burst to take victory from Al Thakhira and the slow starting Joyeuse. Meehan rarely enters his horses in races they don't have a chance of winning, especially the good ones anyway, and his post-race comments left us in no doubt that he holds this filly in high regard. Neither of the first three are certain to go for the English 1000 Guineas, with all holding entries in the French version as well which may provide softer ground, but the winner was cut in to 16/1 from 50/1 pre-race for the English 1000. I was quite taken by Joyeuse in this race actually, despite finishing third. The half-sister to Frankel was held up in rear at the start of the race and managed to finish off very well. If James Doyle adopted more positive tactics in the 1000 Guineas I'd be confident of a better showing especially considering the extra 1f and it would be fantastic if Lady Cecil could had the winner of the 1000 Guineas, especially considering what a wonderful handler of fillies the Late Henry Cecil was.
Up at Ayr any blog followers (I doubt there are many left after my Grand National tips!) would have been in clover as both Cockney Sparrow and Eduard won, and Godsmejudge claimed 2nd place to reward e/w players. Although I wanted Godsmejudge to win if any other horse could have taken glory it would be one ridden by Jamie Moore. I think he is a great character and a great jockey to have in the sport, one a viewer can really warm to. He interviews really well and this caps a fantastic season in which he has ridden Sire De Grugy to many a success, including the Cheltenham triumph; really well deserved for a jockey who's family name is more commonly associated with the flat game.
My Tent or Yours could not shoulder a welter burder to victory in the Scottish Champion Hurdle and Cockney Sparrow benefitted from a fine tactical ride by Dean Pratt, a jockey who looks great value for his 7lbs claim based on the way he swooped late on John Quinn's mare to take this prize. MTOY's still pulled hard despite the application of a hood, and he also clattered a fair few hurdles on his way round. It could be that he needs a fence in front of him to get him to respect the obstacles a bit more, perhaps chasing may get him to settle a bit better as well, and it will be interesting to see what Henderson does with him next year.
This week we have the Newmarket Craven meeting to look forward to, with some more Guineas trials included, in addition to the inaugural All Weather Championship Finals day at Lingfield on Good Friday. A grand total of over £1 million has been put up as prize money and I hope the event is a success as it has given me a bit more interest in the sand over the winter as well as adding a bit more purpose to the British all weather season. Enjoy and thanks, as always, for reading.
Friday 11 April 2014
A mix of Flat, Jumps and Countries this weekend
Its a really good looking weekend of racing coming up, with some quality flat action going on at Newbury and a nice jumps meeting for our entertainment over the Scottish border. While I feel like we have more of a grip on form over the jumps the fact that a lot of these horses have been on the go for a long time this season should temper enthusiasm for big bets in my opinion as we have been seeing some unpredictable results over recent days, especially with the differing ground conditions to be factored in as well. However there are a few horses I think are worth a dabble over the sticks this weekend and I'll touch on these before checking out the speedsters on the flat.
Firstly up at Ayr Eduardo can reward trainer Nicky Richard's patience and take the 2.05 on the card. Richards has not been tempted by the big festivals this season, preferring to save his charge for this race after a win over 2 miles at the venue in March. While he hasn't beaten much over fences this far he has been impressive in doing his job and his freshness can give him the edge in this Novices Chase.
In the Scottish Champion Hurdle the presence of My Tent or Yours is causing most of the field to be running out of the handicap. However I do like the chances of John Quinn's admirable mare Cockney Sparrow. While in the receipt of 7lbs from MTOY's in the fighting fifth in November she was only beat 3 lengths, and while that could have been more and Henderson won't have had his horse 100% fit Cockney Sparrow is running with almost 2 stone less than the top weight tomorrow after you take into account the jockeys claim. She will appreciate the step back down in trip after running over 2 miles 4f at Cheltenham and at 12/1 looks a fair e/w bet.
Finally we have a similar situation in the Scottish Grand National where Tidal Bay is causing 18 of the runners to be carrying more weight than they would usually do! I've put forward my case for Alan King's Godsmejudge in a previous blog, and whilst it is very unfortunate for Wayne Hutchinson to be ruled out of the race with injury Aiden Coleman is a more than able substitute rider and my enthusiasm for last year's winner remains strong. Part of me wonders if Paul Nicholls has been quite cute here in running Tidal Bay, his other entry Sam Winner now runs off a much more favourable weight than he would have had Tidal Bay been withdrawn, and he could well give the selection the most to think about.
Let's take the obstacles out of the equation now and have a look at the action down at Newbury. We have the first of the Guineas trials at the Berkshire venue and anything John Gosden is running at the moment warrants huge respect as his stable have started off the season in absolutely incredible form. With a treble on Wednesday followed by a 4-timer at Newbury on Friday there are no trainers in better form currently. That bodes extremely well for Kingman in the 2000 Guineas trial for which he is the 7/4 market leader. However I would be wary of betting in these trial races; Not only does he meet some extremely warm opposition tomorrow but you just don't know how tuned up he will be either. Jockey James Doyle has said "He's right where we want him to be for his first run of the season." however how are we as punters to know just where that is! I'm sure he will be set to benefit from the run and with the opposition anything but short on quality I'll be taking a watching brief on this one.
However in the 1000 Guineas trial I do really quite like the chances of Marco Botti's Al Thakhira. She doesn't occupy as prominent a position as Kingman does in the Newmarket version of their respective trial races but that makes me think that connections will want to see exactly what they have tomorrow, to assess if she really does have a chance in the 1000 Guineas proper. When you take into account a previous poor run (on absolutely lightening quick ground in Santa Anita that she just didn't handle) that connections will want to banish to the back of their memories with a good performance tomorrow on her preferred softer surface then I think at 7/2 she rates a good win bet in the Fred Darling Stakes.
Finally in the 3.30, the extremely trappy 25 runner 1 mile handicap I think Brocklebank could outrun his price. He has been running on the all weather so far this season where the narrow track of Lingfield has seen things happen a bit too quickly for him. Back on the turf, on a more galloping track (Newbury is one of the fairest tracks out there in my opinion) Brocklebank will have a bit more time to get going and at a tissue price of 33/1 could rewards some e/w support in this big handicap.
Lets hope I can combine some luck over both codes this weekend to get some winning selections up, and make sure you watch the action at Newbury closely, and then watch it again and again as there are sure to be some performances of note to take out of this Saturday's action. Best of luck and thanks for reading!
Firstly up at Ayr Eduardo can reward trainer Nicky Richard's patience and take the 2.05 on the card. Richards has not been tempted by the big festivals this season, preferring to save his charge for this race after a win over 2 miles at the venue in March. While he hasn't beaten much over fences this far he has been impressive in doing his job and his freshness can give him the edge in this Novices Chase.
In the Scottish Champion Hurdle the presence of My Tent or Yours is causing most of the field to be running out of the handicap. However I do like the chances of John Quinn's admirable mare Cockney Sparrow. While in the receipt of 7lbs from MTOY's in the fighting fifth in November she was only beat 3 lengths, and while that could have been more and Henderson won't have had his horse 100% fit Cockney Sparrow is running with almost 2 stone less than the top weight tomorrow after you take into account the jockeys claim. She will appreciate the step back down in trip after running over 2 miles 4f at Cheltenham and at 12/1 looks a fair e/w bet.
Finally we have a similar situation in the Scottish Grand National where Tidal Bay is causing 18 of the runners to be carrying more weight than they would usually do! I've put forward my case for Alan King's Godsmejudge in a previous blog, and whilst it is very unfortunate for Wayne Hutchinson to be ruled out of the race with injury Aiden Coleman is a more than able substitute rider and my enthusiasm for last year's winner remains strong. Part of me wonders if Paul Nicholls has been quite cute here in running Tidal Bay, his other entry Sam Winner now runs off a much more favourable weight than he would have had Tidal Bay been withdrawn, and he could well give the selection the most to think about.
Let's take the obstacles out of the equation now and have a look at the action down at Newbury. We have the first of the Guineas trials at the Berkshire venue and anything John Gosden is running at the moment warrants huge respect as his stable have started off the season in absolutely incredible form. With a treble on Wednesday followed by a 4-timer at Newbury on Friday there are no trainers in better form currently. That bodes extremely well for Kingman in the 2000 Guineas trial for which he is the 7/4 market leader. However I would be wary of betting in these trial races; Not only does he meet some extremely warm opposition tomorrow but you just don't know how tuned up he will be either. Jockey James Doyle has said "He's right where we want him to be for his first run of the season." however how are we as punters to know just where that is! I'm sure he will be set to benefit from the run and with the opposition anything but short on quality I'll be taking a watching brief on this one.
However in the 1000 Guineas trial I do really quite like the chances of Marco Botti's Al Thakhira. She doesn't occupy as prominent a position as Kingman does in the Newmarket version of their respective trial races but that makes me think that connections will want to see exactly what they have tomorrow, to assess if she really does have a chance in the 1000 Guineas proper. When you take into account a previous poor run (on absolutely lightening quick ground in Santa Anita that she just didn't handle) that connections will want to banish to the back of their memories with a good performance tomorrow on her preferred softer surface then I think at 7/2 she rates a good win bet in the Fred Darling Stakes.
Finally in the 3.30, the extremely trappy 25 runner 1 mile handicap I think Brocklebank could outrun his price. He has been running on the all weather so far this season where the narrow track of Lingfield has seen things happen a bit too quickly for him. Back on the turf, on a more galloping track (Newbury is one of the fairest tracks out there in my opinion) Brocklebank will have a bit more time to get going and at a tissue price of 33/1 could rewards some e/w support in this big handicap.
Lets hope I can combine some luck over both codes this weekend to get some winning selections up, and make sure you watch the action at Newbury closely, and then watch it again and again as there are sure to be some performances of note to take out of this Saturday's action. Best of luck and thanks for reading!
Tuesday 8 April 2014
Guineas Trials on the horizon - NOW the Flat is back!
With the lighter evenings and warmer days slowly creeping into our lives its time to start making some changes in our racing thoughts. Yes its finally time for the tweed to go away, Walsh and McCoy can start to take things a bit easier and we can swap one all-powerful Irish trainer with a jockey son for another - the Flat is back. Now the Aintree festival and the Grand National have passed and flat action on the turf has begun I certainly feel more able to switch codes, rather than after the Lincoln when we still have a big festival to come. I appreciate there are still a number of big jumps fixtures to come but with the Guineas trials starting this coming weekend I'm going to start my flat build-up in earnest.
Tuesday saw the launch of the 2014 Qipco British Champions Series, the biggest new initiative this year being the introduction of the Balmoral Handicap, a £250,000 mile race and now the richest mile handicap in Europe. This really shows the determination of the organisers to ensure that the Champions Series is a success, and the British Champions Day held in October really could be some spectacle this year. Of course it is always going to be hard with the Arc and the Breeders Cup already firmly in position around this time of the year but I certainly want to see British Champions Day succeed and the organisers certainly seem to be giving it every chance of doing so.
Looking a bit closer in the future its hard to believe the 1000 and 2000 Guineas, the first Classics of the flat season, will have come and gone by this time next month! This weekend sees the first big trial for the 2000 Guineas and at the time of writing the Greenham Stakes at Newbury is shaping up to be an absolute cracker. Kingman, John Gosden's unbeaten colt, will try and follow in the footsteps of Frankel as he contest the 7f race but he will face a stern test including the likes of Night of Thunder, another unbeaten colt whom trainer Richard Hannon thinks will love the soft ground at the track this weekend and Berkshire, a hugely impressive winner of the Chesham stakes last year. Richard Fahey is represented by Parbold and is one of the trainers big hopes for this season, although the trainer admits on his website there are doubts over the 1 mile Guineas trip which could see him try the Craven as opposed to this trial (being over 1 mile and the Newmarket track). Other horses coming here having already achieved high ratings in their two year old career's include Hidden Oasis, Be Ready, Anjaal, Astaire and Supplicant. For me this will definitely be a race to take a watching brief on, I am really keen to see if Kingman can continue the upward profile he started last season as his debut win even after blowing the start marked him down as a horse of tremendous potential. The clash between him and Australia (the second best O'Brien has ever trained apparently....) in the 2000 Guineas is tremendously exciting and a great way to start the flat season.
We also see the girls given a chance to stake their 1000 Guineas claims on Saturday in the Fred Darling stakes, also over the 7f trip. Rizeena won't be taking up her entry here though, instead opting to go straight to the Guineas after pleasing the fantastic Clive Brittain in her work, so much so that he even felt obliged to do one of his famous jiggs after seeing his filly in action! She is currently contesting favouritism for the 1000 Guineas with O'Brien's Tapestry, and in her absence Al Thakhira, ridden by newly retained Frankie Dettori, is the best of the rest in the ante-post market. It will be interesting to see if anything can produce a performance to jump in the betting after this weekend especially as a good deal of these fillies will be trying the step up in trip for the first time. Last year's winner of this race (Maureen) went on to finish 6th in the race it serves as a trial for so this race can certainly be used as a springboard to a decent performance in May.
Up at Ayr we have the Scottish National, in which the presence of Tidal Bay means that only 9 other horses would actually be in the handicap proper! If he comes out of the race the weights will be going up 19lbs so it might be worth waiting to see if the popular (although no longer with Donald McCain!) veteran takes his chance here or waits for Sandown before having a betting interest. I really hope Goldsmejudge takes his chance here as I did fancy Alan King's horse for the Grand National before it was decided to wait with the horse and as a previous winner of this race I hope he can continue his good record here. He will actually be carrying less weight this year is Tidal Bay lines up, a crazy thought especially when you see it would be 12lbs lower, and Alan King's horses appear to be benefiting from the enforced break over the winter as they are fresher than other horses at this late stage of the season. Wayne Hutchinson is in line to take the ride having been in the saddle for last year's success and Wayne continues to be one of the most underrated jockeys in the weighing room for me, I hope he can add another big race success to his collection.
I certainly won't be advising this weekend to start your flat racing betting, however it does look one to watch and re-watch in the company of a pen and notepad in the hope of seeing some hot performances we can take into the rest of the season. Best get started early to give ourselves the best chance!
Once again thanks for reading and good luck!
Tuesday saw the launch of the 2014 Qipco British Champions Series, the biggest new initiative this year being the introduction of the Balmoral Handicap, a £250,000 mile race and now the richest mile handicap in Europe. This really shows the determination of the organisers to ensure that the Champions Series is a success, and the British Champions Day held in October really could be some spectacle this year. Of course it is always going to be hard with the Arc and the Breeders Cup already firmly in position around this time of the year but I certainly want to see British Champions Day succeed and the organisers certainly seem to be giving it every chance of doing so.
Looking a bit closer in the future its hard to believe the 1000 and 2000 Guineas, the first Classics of the flat season, will have come and gone by this time next month! This weekend sees the first big trial for the 2000 Guineas and at the time of writing the Greenham Stakes at Newbury is shaping up to be an absolute cracker. Kingman, John Gosden's unbeaten colt, will try and follow in the footsteps of Frankel as he contest the 7f race but he will face a stern test including the likes of Night of Thunder, another unbeaten colt whom trainer Richard Hannon thinks will love the soft ground at the track this weekend and Berkshire, a hugely impressive winner of the Chesham stakes last year. Richard Fahey is represented by Parbold and is one of the trainers big hopes for this season, although the trainer admits on his website there are doubts over the 1 mile Guineas trip which could see him try the Craven as opposed to this trial (being over 1 mile and the Newmarket track). Other horses coming here having already achieved high ratings in their two year old career's include Hidden Oasis, Be Ready, Anjaal, Astaire and Supplicant. For me this will definitely be a race to take a watching brief on, I am really keen to see if Kingman can continue the upward profile he started last season as his debut win even after blowing the start marked him down as a horse of tremendous potential. The clash between him and Australia (the second best O'Brien has ever trained apparently....) in the 2000 Guineas is tremendously exciting and a great way to start the flat season.
We also see the girls given a chance to stake their 1000 Guineas claims on Saturday in the Fred Darling stakes, also over the 7f trip. Rizeena won't be taking up her entry here though, instead opting to go straight to the Guineas after pleasing the fantastic Clive Brittain in her work, so much so that he even felt obliged to do one of his famous jiggs after seeing his filly in action! She is currently contesting favouritism for the 1000 Guineas with O'Brien's Tapestry, and in her absence Al Thakhira, ridden by newly retained Frankie Dettori, is the best of the rest in the ante-post market. It will be interesting to see if anything can produce a performance to jump in the betting after this weekend especially as a good deal of these fillies will be trying the step up in trip for the first time. Last year's winner of this race (Maureen) went on to finish 6th in the race it serves as a trial for so this race can certainly be used as a springboard to a decent performance in May.
Up at Ayr we have the Scottish National, in which the presence of Tidal Bay means that only 9 other horses would actually be in the handicap proper! If he comes out of the race the weights will be going up 19lbs so it might be worth waiting to see if the popular (although no longer with Donald McCain!) veteran takes his chance here or waits for Sandown before having a betting interest. I really hope Goldsmejudge takes his chance here as I did fancy Alan King's horse for the Grand National before it was decided to wait with the horse and as a previous winner of this race I hope he can continue his good record here. He will actually be carrying less weight this year is Tidal Bay lines up, a crazy thought especially when you see it would be 12lbs lower, and Alan King's horses appear to be benefiting from the enforced break over the winter as they are fresher than other horses at this late stage of the season. Wayne Hutchinson is in line to take the ride having been in the saddle for last year's success and Wayne continues to be one of the most underrated jockeys in the weighing room for me, I hope he can add another big race success to his collection.
I certainly won't be advising this weekend to start your flat racing betting, however it does look one to watch and re-watch in the company of a pen and notepad in the hope of seeing some hot performances we can take into the rest of the season. Best get started early to give ourselves the best chance!
Once again thanks for reading and good luck!
Sunday 6 April 2014
Hands up who had that one
The 2014 Grand National served only to increase my run of years without picking a winner, to get another Sunday phonecall off my GrandMother telling me that my tips 'weren't very good' and to further damped my reputation as someone who knows a little bit about horse racing amongst friends! Huge congratulations go to the good Dr Richard Newland who won the Grand National with Pineau De Re, one of only 12 hoses in his stable. He certainly knows how to pick the right races for his limited number of inmates, and Leighton Aspell, who himself has already retired once as a jockey, will be absolutely over the moon with this win despite perhaps not appearing it after the race! Pineau De Re's victory was also the toast of the bookmakers as at 25/1 he succeeds 66/1 and 33/1 victories in the past two years in being a fairly unfancied winner of the race. Having the likes of Double Seven, the mount of Ap McCoy who say plenty of punter's money, Monbeg Dude and Teaforthree beaten put a spring in many a bookies step coming out of Aintree that evening.
The race certainly did not pan out how I had expected, even allowing for the disappointing runs of my three selections put up on the blog. There were a lot more fallers, unseats and pulled up horses than I thought there would be, indeed we only had 18 horses out of the initial 40 finish (Battle Group didn't really start, meaning the field was down to 39 before we had gone 5 strides). Tidal Bay was unfortunate to be brought down but I certainly didn't expect Teaforthree to fall, they were two horses that looked very solid place propositions to me before the race and when friends told me of their bets on one of the two market leaders I said they had a great chance to recoup some e/w money...wrong again! You have to feel for Henry Brooke who looked to be having a whale of a time up front on board Across the Bay before the loose Tidal Bay carried him right across the track and to the back of the field once young Brooke had manages to assert control over his mount once again. In the end he did very well to get 14th place. We only had one faller at the chair in Teaforthree and pleasingly all 40 horses were safe and sound after the race, always a good sign and one which will hopefully mean we don't have further calls for changes to the great race.
Apart from the winner a horse who comes out of the race with tremendous credit is Rocky Creek, Paul Nicholls charge ridden by Noel Fehily. He was the only horse who finished in the first 16 to carry over 11 stone in weight (indeed he lugged 11 stone 5 lbs round the 4.5 mile trip). This really does look to prove, despite the easier fences, the National still is a real test of stamina as carrying this weight proved beyond many other horses in the race. Rocky Creek did look a potential class angle before the race and the fact he carried this weight in a good performance backs this up, especially given his proximity to the pace, so it will be interesting to see what Nicholls does with him next year.
It seems we will see this year's winner heading to the race next year, all being well. His trainer has confirmed that is the target and he will be given a well earned rest for this season; no-one would argue that Pineau De Re doesn't deserves it! In the jumps racing scene we now head towards the season finale at Sandown Park and the end-of-April Punchestown festival as the flat season starts to get underway, the Guineas is now less than a month away unbelievably! Time to get ready for the change of codes and put the tweed back in the cupboard as the summer game fast approaches.
Thanks very much for reading and I hope you fared better than me in yesterday's big race!
The race certainly did not pan out how I had expected, even allowing for the disappointing runs of my three selections put up on the blog. There were a lot more fallers, unseats and pulled up horses than I thought there would be, indeed we only had 18 horses out of the initial 40 finish (Battle Group didn't really start, meaning the field was down to 39 before we had gone 5 strides). Tidal Bay was unfortunate to be brought down but I certainly didn't expect Teaforthree to fall, they were two horses that looked very solid place propositions to me before the race and when friends told me of their bets on one of the two market leaders I said they had a great chance to recoup some e/w money...wrong again! You have to feel for Henry Brooke who looked to be having a whale of a time up front on board Across the Bay before the loose Tidal Bay carried him right across the track and to the back of the field once young Brooke had manages to assert control over his mount once again. In the end he did very well to get 14th place. We only had one faller at the chair in Teaforthree and pleasingly all 40 horses were safe and sound after the race, always a good sign and one which will hopefully mean we don't have further calls for changes to the great race.
Apart from the winner a horse who comes out of the race with tremendous credit is Rocky Creek, Paul Nicholls charge ridden by Noel Fehily. He was the only horse who finished in the first 16 to carry over 11 stone in weight (indeed he lugged 11 stone 5 lbs round the 4.5 mile trip). This really does look to prove, despite the easier fences, the National still is a real test of stamina as carrying this weight proved beyond many other horses in the race. Rocky Creek did look a potential class angle before the race and the fact he carried this weight in a good performance backs this up, especially given his proximity to the pace, so it will be interesting to see what Nicholls does with him next year.
It seems we will see this year's winner heading to the race next year, all being well. His trainer has confirmed that is the target and he will be given a well earned rest for this season; no-one would argue that Pineau De Re doesn't deserves it! In the jumps racing scene we now head towards the season finale at Sandown Park and the end-of-April Punchestown festival as the flat season starts to get underway, the Guineas is now less than a month away unbelievably! Time to get ready for the change of codes and put the tweed back in the cupboard as the summer game fast approaches.
Thanks very much for reading and I hope you fared better than me in yesterday's big race!
Friday 4 April 2014
Aintree Saturday - the big day - The Grand National
With 71,000 people in attendance Grand National day is sure to have an absolutely electric atmosphere about it, the Aintree course will be a fantastic place to be and good luck and have fun to anyone going! My selections for the premier day of the Aintree festival follow, I've allowed myself more than one in the Grand National but surely the reader can forgive that! Hopefully if you played your office sweepstake you are happy with your selection, theres not much you can do about it now anyway but you can always add to your betting portfolio and perhaps this blog can help you there! I've put up selections in three of the races, the 2.05 while a great looking race looks very hard to call between Trifolium, Hinterland and Balder Succes, so hopefully we can finish the Aintree Festival on a high. Good luck!
1.30 Aintree Wild Blue Yonder
Plenty have horses have been running well and winning at the Aintree festival this year after running well at Cheltenham and I'm hoping Wild Blue Yonder can add to those by taking the first race on the card. He ran well to finish 5th behind Vautour in the Supreme Novices hurdle, form that is working out very well considering Friday's results at this venue and whilst not lacking a turn of foot he has always shaped like a longer trip would suit. Two falls over the winter came on more testing ground, back on a sounder surface his jumping seems to hold out a lot better, and the slightly slower pace of this race over a longer trip should also help him on this front. The King stable are still going well and Choc got a winner on friday, take Wild Blue Yonder to give them another on Saturday.
2.50 Zarkandar
The selection was ridden like connections were unsure he would stay the trip in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, however given the way he finished any concerns should be well and truly banished as he finished really well to take 4th spot that day. Zarkandar goes really well round Aintree and can be ridden with more confidence given a) the Cheltenham experience and b) The flatter, easier nature of the Aintree track. At Fishers Cross beat him at Cheltenham but I fancy Zarkandar to turn the tables here at a trip he has always looked like appreciating.
4.25
Prince De Beauchene - Would have been close to favourite if he had lined up in the two previous renewals of this race, cruelly being denied by injury both times. His mark has eased since then however and he was a lot better on his latest run out. The fact Mullins has pushed so hard in previous years to get Price De Beauchene here is significant for me and I hope he can reward the master trainers efforts in 2014.
The Package - The form of his comeback run this season has been well and truly franked with the winner taking a Grade 1 at Aintree of Friday and the 2nd also winning on the same card. The Package has been tried over these fences before, unsuccessfully, but the race has changed in the intervening years and the fences made easier. The Package carries a really nice weight in the 2014 renewal and has winning form over distances in excess of 3 miles giving hope his stamina can last out. If Scudamore can get him into a rhythm early on, and he can avoid the dreaded bounce factor, The Package can go really well.
Alvarado - His best form came on his penultimate outing, where he went over the furthest he has ever done (3m3f) with some good horses in behind, the likes of Knockara Beau, Monbeg Dude, Spring Heeled and Goulanes, indicating the marathon Grand National trip could be right up his street. Fortunately the ground doesn't look like getting too testing as he didn't look like he enjoyed soft ground at Cheltenham latest and he has snuck in here off a really low weight. He can go well for Evan Williams and Paul Moloney.
Once again Good Luck, you'll certainly need it on Grand National day, and thanks for reading!!
1.30 Aintree Wild Blue Yonder
Plenty have horses have been running well and winning at the Aintree festival this year after running well at Cheltenham and I'm hoping Wild Blue Yonder can add to those by taking the first race on the card. He ran well to finish 5th behind Vautour in the Supreme Novices hurdle, form that is working out very well considering Friday's results at this venue and whilst not lacking a turn of foot he has always shaped like a longer trip would suit. Two falls over the winter came on more testing ground, back on a sounder surface his jumping seems to hold out a lot better, and the slightly slower pace of this race over a longer trip should also help him on this front. The King stable are still going well and Choc got a winner on friday, take Wild Blue Yonder to give them another on Saturday.
2.50 Zarkandar
The selection was ridden like connections were unsure he would stay the trip in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, however given the way he finished any concerns should be well and truly banished as he finished really well to take 4th spot that day. Zarkandar goes really well round Aintree and can be ridden with more confidence given a) the Cheltenham experience and b) The flatter, easier nature of the Aintree track. At Fishers Cross beat him at Cheltenham but I fancy Zarkandar to turn the tables here at a trip he has always looked like appreciating.
4.25
Prince De Beauchene - Would have been close to favourite if he had lined up in the two previous renewals of this race, cruelly being denied by injury both times. His mark has eased since then however and he was a lot better on his latest run out. The fact Mullins has pushed so hard in previous years to get Price De Beauchene here is significant for me and I hope he can reward the master trainers efforts in 2014.
The Package - The form of his comeback run this season has been well and truly franked with the winner taking a Grade 1 at Aintree of Friday and the 2nd also winning on the same card. The Package has been tried over these fences before, unsuccessfully, but the race has changed in the intervening years and the fences made easier. The Package carries a really nice weight in the 2014 renewal and has winning form over distances in excess of 3 miles giving hope his stamina can last out. If Scudamore can get him into a rhythm early on, and he can avoid the dreaded bounce factor, The Package can go really well.
Alvarado - His best form came on his penultimate outing, where he went over the furthest he has ever done (3m3f) with some good horses in behind, the likes of Knockara Beau, Monbeg Dude, Spring Heeled and Goulanes, indicating the marathon Grand National trip could be right up his street. Fortunately the ground doesn't look like getting too testing as he didn't look like he enjoyed soft ground at Cheltenham latest and he has snuck in here off a really low weight. He can go well for Evan Williams and Paul Moloney.
Once again Good Luck, you'll certainly need it on Grand National day, and thanks for reading!!
Tuesday 1 April 2014
Thursday Thoughts at Aintree
With entries for the opening day of the Aintree Grand National meeting becoming a bit clearer I thought I'd visit day one of the festival and look over the races. Annoyingly my Ante-post fancy Annie Power has not been declared for the big hurdle on day 1, Willie Mullins deeming that she hadn't quite got over her Cheltenham exertions, but we still have some cracking action to look over.
2.00 - 2m 1f Juvenile Hurdle
Actival turns up here off the back of a Kempton romp and should take all the beating. Aintree is a similar track in nature and there were loud calls for Harry Fry's charge to turn up at Cheltenham for the triumph, which he dismissed after consultations with jockey Noel Fehily. However Actival is well fancied in places to reward his wise young trainers patience in the festival opener. There is plenty of Cheltenham form on show here, with Triumph hurdle winner Tiger Roll, unlucky horse Calipto (stirrup snapped and heavily interfered with during the race won by Tiger Roll), Broughton, Guitar Pete, Ivan Gronzy and Kentucky Hyden all running at the Fez. The way Tiger Roll won that triumph hurdle on just his third start was very taking and for a horse so inexperienced you would fancy he has more improvement to come. He is my selection here. While Actival may get put off by the big occasion Tiger Roll clearly can handle it and I think there is plenty more to come from this one both here and in the big races next season.
2.30 - 3m 1f Betfred Bowl
This race is already previewed in depth elsewhere on the blog but needless to say I still really fancy Dynaste to win this one. The trainer jockey combo remain in good form and he has all the talent to handle this step up in trip from what he won over at Cheltenham. First Lieutenant the biggest threat.
3.05 - 2m 4f Doom Bar Hurdle
As with the previous race this one has also been previewed elsewhere on the blog. Annie Power's absence has robben the race of a deal of intrigue and I think this leaves it open to likely odds-on favourite The New One to win this. Rock on Ruby was thrashed out of sight by TNO earlier in the season but it will be interesting to see how both he and Grandouet go returned to hurdles.
3.40 - 2m 5f Foxhunter Chase
Mossey Joe will be out here to try and justify the large price paid for him by owner Barry Connell who is certainly due an upturn in luck after Cheltenham. I cannot pretend to know much about these animals but jockey bookings are always worth checking out with the amature triders on board therefore Warne, the mount of Sam Waley-Cohen who is a very good jockey round here, must be respected especially given his previously shown aptitude for these unique fences.
4.00 2m Handicap Chase
This race will be run at some pace and I'm actually quite interested in Henry De Bromhead's Absolutelyfantastic. He has had plenty of runs on the flat so the pace of this race won't catch him out, which in turn should help his jumping come under slightly less pressure than those who will be going a touch too quick for their liking. Henry won't be sending him over here for the fun of it and although he has been off the track for a while could Henry have been protecting his mark? At a likely big price I think he is worth taking a punt on.
4.50 - 2m 4f Novice's Chase
This could be some race is all the big guns hold their ground with plenty of Cheltenham form represented. However one I like actually missed the festival and that is Nicky Richards' Eduard. Going over fences has been the making of this horse and he is unlucky not to be unbeaten over the larger obstacles, a blunder 3 out ruining all chance on his fencing debut. Since then he has gone from strength to strength and with many of the horses in opposition coming here off the back of very tough runs at Cheltenham I think Eduard could well reward an investment, especially as some of the names from bigger stables may help him go off a nice price.
I won't even start looking at the 5.25 until the entry list narrows down a bit but thanks for reading my thoughts on the opening day of the Merseyside meet!
2.00 - 2m 1f Juvenile Hurdle
Actival turns up here off the back of a Kempton romp and should take all the beating. Aintree is a similar track in nature and there were loud calls for Harry Fry's charge to turn up at Cheltenham for the triumph, which he dismissed after consultations with jockey Noel Fehily. However Actival is well fancied in places to reward his wise young trainers patience in the festival opener. There is plenty of Cheltenham form on show here, with Triumph hurdle winner Tiger Roll, unlucky horse Calipto (stirrup snapped and heavily interfered with during the race won by Tiger Roll), Broughton, Guitar Pete, Ivan Gronzy and Kentucky Hyden all running at the Fez. The way Tiger Roll won that triumph hurdle on just his third start was very taking and for a horse so inexperienced you would fancy he has more improvement to come. He is my selection here. While Actival may get put off by the big occasion Tiger Roll clearly can handle it and I think there is plenty more to come from this one both here and in the big races next season.
2.30 - 3m 1f Betfred Bowl
This race is already previewed in depth elsewhere on the blog but needless to say I still really fancy Dynaste to win this one. The trainer jockey combo remain in good form and he has all the talent to handle this step up in trip from what he won over at Cheltenham. First Lieutenant the biggest threat.
3.05 - 2m 4f Doom Bar Hurdle
As with the previous race this one has also been previewed elsewhere on the blog. Annie Power's absence has robben the race of a deal of intrigue and I think this leaves it open to likely odds-on favourite The New One to win this. Rock on Ruby was thrashed out of sight by TNO earlier in the season but it will be interesting to see how both he and Grandouet go returned to hurdles.
3.40 - 2m 5f Foxhunter Chase
Mossey Joe will be out here to try and justify the large price paid for him by owner Barry Connell who is certainly due an upturn in luck after Cheltenham. I cannot pretend to know much about these animals but jockey bookings are always worth checking out with the amature triders on board therefore Warne, the mount of Sam Waley-Cohen who is a very good jockey round here, must be respected especially given his previously shown aptitude for these unique fences.
4.00 2m Handicap Chase
This race will be run at some pace and I'm actually quite interested in Henry De Bromhead's Absolutelyfantastic. He has had plenty of runs on the flat so the pace of this race won't catch him out, which in turn should help his jumping come under slightly less pressure than those who will be going a touch too quick for their liking. Henry won't be sending him over here for the fun of it and although he has been off the track for a while could Henry have been protecting his mark? At a likely big price I think he is worth taking a punt on.
4.50 - 2m 4f Novice's Chase
This could be some race is all the big guns hold their ground with plenty of Cheltenham form represented. However one I like actually missed the festival and that is Nicky Richards' Eduard. Going over fences has been the making of this horse and he is unlucky not to be unbeaten over the larger obstacles, a blunder 3 out ruining all chance on his fencing debut. Since then he has gone from strength to strength and with many of the horses in opposition coming here off the back of very tough runs at Cheltenham I think Eduard could well reward an investment, especially as some of the names from bigger stables may help him go off a nice price.
I won't even start looking at the 5.25 until the entry list narrows down a bit but thanks for reading my thoughts on the opening day of the Merseyside meet!
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