Unbelievable...on day 19 we won a bet! Both teams scored in Germany vs Italy and the blog moves on to -7.87. Wow, inspirational stuff. Whilst I send a postcard to Mother to mark this day, day 20 thoughts are below
Day 20 - France vs Iceland
Well many thought this match on Sunday evening would be France vs England, but Iceland put paid to that as they frankly outperformed England and beat them 2-1 in the round of 16, once again knocking England out at the first knockout stage of International football. France looked up against it at half-time against Ireland, 1-0 down and struggling with the physical game Ireland were playing, but as Ireland tired in the 2nd half and France changed formation slightly Griezmann was able to thrive in his central role and score twice, leading to the progression of the host nation.
I fancy Iceland will attempt to play in a similar manner to Ireland in the first half, but if France are able to start the game in the way they finished against Ireland I think they will have too much for Iceland in the end. Griezmann was the difference in France's last game and I hope that he will be played in a more central role here, as he was in that 2nd half, as the French are a far more impressive team when this happens. And if it does I really fancy Griezmann to notch, and thus at 17/10 anytime goalscorer, he is the play on day 20
Day 20 -Griezmann to score anytime 17/10
Wednesday 29 June 2016
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 19
Oh my days. Turmoil in the bet-a-day challenge; I'm doubting if I'm the man to lead this blog forward, I doubt I'll be voted in for a future tournament and as I look at the profit/loss (-9.17) we come to the hardest game of the quarter-finals to call. Hardly bodes well...
Day 19 - Germany vs Italy
What a humdinger of a game we look set for here. Germany, yet to concede and supreme when brushing Slovakia aside in the round of 16 vs Italy, outsiders initially for Euro glory but a team that is more than the sum of their parts as proved when storming past Spain last time out. This looks set to be an absolutely thrilling match and is the quarter final I am most looking forward too!
Now to find a bet in the game; a bit more tricky. I've been very impressed with Germany thus far but quotes of 5/4 to win this in 90 minutes do seem skinny considering just how impressive Italy have been when thrashing Belgium and overcoming Spain with surprising ease. The draw is priced at 2/1 and Italy outsiders for the 90 minute win at 3/1. If pushed I'd have to go for Germany to win, they have really impressed me so far, but I wouldn't be confident.
Therefore, for the bet in this game I'm going for both teams to score at 13/10. Germany come into the game after hitting 3 past Slovakia, even missing a penalty in that game, whereas Italy put 2 past Spain and that could have been many more if it wasn't for the superb performance by De Gea in goal for Spain. Add into the mix that Italy are (probably) missing De Rossi with injury and Motta through suspension and I think we can definitely get a few goals here. I like this bet in knockout football as if one team scores the others are forced to attack and I'm hoping that both teams can notch here.
Day 19 - Both teams to score 13/10
Day 19 - Germany vs Italy
What a humdinger of a game we look set for here. Germany, yet to concede and supreme when brushing Slovakia aside in the round of 16 vs Italy, outsiders initially for Euro glory but a team that is more than the sum of their parts as proved when storming past Spain last time out. This looks set to be an absolutely thrilling match and is the quarter final I am most looking forward too!
Now to find a bet in the game; a bit more tricky. I've been very impressed with Germany thus far but quotes of 5/4 to win this in 90 minutes do seem skinny considering just how impressive Italy have been when thrashing Belgium and overcoming Spain with surprising ease. The draw is priced at 2/1 and Italy outsiders for the 90 minute win at 3/1. If pushed I'd have to go for Germany to win, they have really impressed me so far, but I wouldn't be confident.
Therefore, for the bet in this game I'm going for both teams to score at 13/10. Germany come into the game after hitting 3 past Slovakia, even missing a penalty in that game, whereas Italy put 2 past Spain and that could have been many more if it wasn't for the superb performance by De Gea in goal for Spain. Add into the mix that Italy are (probably) missing De Rossi with injury and Motta through suspension and I think we can definitely get a few goals here. I like this bet in knockout football as if one team scores the others are forced to attack and I'm hoping that both teams can notch here.
Day 19 - Both teams to score 13/10
Tuesday 28 June 2016
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 17
-7.17. The abject performance of the blog goes on, however even this isn't as abject as England were against Iceland. Out-battled, out-thought and thoroughly outplayed, you can't even argue they were unlucky losers. And the same sentiments can be applied to the blog's selections over this performance unfortunately but we go on, in the hunt for that elusive winner...
Day 17 - Poland vs Portugal
For the first 45 minutes of their round of 16 match Poland were very good, for the 2nd 45 they were not. However, they progressed on penalties and face a Portugal side who were also fairly poor but who are also, unlike England, still in the tournament. Portugal haven't actually won a game this Euro's yet therefore their price of 13/10 doesn't really appeal. What I do like is Poland and under 2.5 goals at a whopping 11/2. Poland have only conceded once this tournament, and have managed an impressive, and arguably unlucky, draw against Germany already, whilst they have beaten both the Ukraine and Northern Ireland. Both wins have come by a single goal, and as mentioned they have only let in 1 goal over 4 games thus far. Therefore I think Poland to win and under 2.5 goals in the game at 11/2 is a good bet here.
Poland and under 2.5 goals @ 11/2
Day 17 - Poland vs Portugal
For the first 45 minutes of their round of 16 match Poland were very good, for the 2nd 45 they were not. However, they progressed on penalties and face a Portugal side who were also fairly poor but who are also, unlike England, still in the tournament. Portugal haven't actually won a game this Euro's yet therefore their price of 13/10 doesn't really appeal. What I do like is Poland and under 2.5 goals at a whopping 11/2. Poland have only conceded once this tournament, and have managed an impressive, and arguably unlucky, draw against Germany already, whilst they have beaten both the Ukraine and Northern Ireland. Both wins have come by a single goal, and as mentioned they have only let in 1 goal over 4 games thus far. Therefore I think Poland to win and under 2.5 goals in the game at 11/2 is a good bet here.
Poland and under 2.5 goals @ 11/2
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 18
-8.17 now. Day 17 saw Poland go ahead inside 2 minutes, something I didn't want for my bet, and whilst I thought I would lose because we would get too many goals we actually lost because Poland couldn't see the game out and ended up going out on pens. Still, head up, I won't do a Boris and make a load of recommendations before bailing on the blog when it all goes wrong...no we're moving on to day 18.
Day 18 - Wales vs Belgium
Well the round of 16 saw Belgium finally arrive at this tournament in no uncertain terms as they tore apart a Hungary side who seemed intent on defending on the half-way line. Not the wisest move against the pace that Belgium possess but with their confidence boosted, Hazard seemingly fresh as a daisy after his season off and the squad possessing attacking talent that is the envy of every team in this tournament I really fancy Belgium here.
Wales have done very well so far but I think Belgium are undoubtably the best team they have come across so far and this could be where their tournament ends. With Bale in the team you can always give the Welsh a chance of grabbing a goal, but I think Belgium win here. Because I don't want to rule out a Welsh goal I'm going for Belgium to win and over 2.5 goals at 12/5, allowing for the possibility of Belgium running riot here.
Belgium to win and over 2.5 goals - 12/5
Day 18 - Wales vs Belgium
Well the round of 16 saw Belgium finally arrive at this tournament in no uncertain terms as they tore apart a Hungary side who seemed intent on defending on the half-way line. Not the wisest move against the pace that Belgium possess but with their confidence boosted, Hazard seemingly fresh as a daisy after his season off and the squad possessing attacking talent that is the envy of every team in this tournament I really fancy Belgium here.
Wales have done very well so far but I think Belgium are undoubtably the best team they have come across so far and this could be where their tournament ends. With Bale in the team you can always give the Welsh a chance of grabbing a goal, but I think Belgium win here. Because I don't want to rule out a Welsh goal I'm going for Belgium to win and over 2.5 goals at 12/5, allowing for the possibility of Belgium running riot here.
Belgium to win and over 2.5 goals - 12/5
Monday 27 June 2016
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 16
Well, after I called Belgium vs Hungary completely wrong, hardly surprising, we move deeper into the red and onto a figure of -6.17. Maybe like Lionel Messi I should just call it quits after a few too many losses? I certainly don't think it could be argued that I'd be quitting too soon...
Day 16
Two excellent games today; Italy vs Spain for the excitement that a clash between two heavyweights of International football and England vs Iceland because, well, its England.
In the first game I think this has draw written all over it; will Spain be able to break down a tough Italian defence? And will Italy be able to get the ball enough to try and launch a counter or two on the Spain goal? An intriguing match and one I don't see too many goals in, if I were to have a bet I'd go for something like under 2.5 goals but 4/9 is no price. Under 1.5 is 11/8, more attractive but I'll not be betting here.
In the match involving Roy's Boys, England *should* have far too much for Iceland but I think they will find it quite hard to break them down and certainly don't see them running away with it. They struggled to break down Slovakia when they sat deep and I can see this match progressing the same way. England to win to nil, at 11/10 is my favourite bet here and the one for day 16.
Day 16 - England to win to nil, 11/10
Day 16
Two excellent games today; Italy vs Spain for the excitement that a clash between two heavyweights of International football and England vs Iceland because, well, its England.
In the first game I think this has draw written all over it; will Spain be able to break down a tough Italian defence? And will Italy be able to get the ball enough to try and launch a counter or two on the Spain goal? An intriguing match and one I don't see too many goals in, if I were to have a bet I'd go for something like under 2.5 goals but 4/9 is no price. Under 1.5 is 11/8, more attractive but I'll not be betting here.
In the match involving Roy's Boys, England *should* have far too much for Iceland but I think they will find it quite hard to break them down and certainly don't see them running away with it. They struggled to break down Slovakia when they sat deep and I can see this match progressing the same way. England to win to nil, at 11/10 is my favourite bet here and the one for day 16.
Day 16 - England to win to nil, 11/10
Saturday 25 June 2016
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 15
Well day 14 didn't work, the goalscorer treble fell at the first hurdle in fact, and we move onto -5.17 Units. I did read today that the stock markets were beginning to recover after Friday's Brexit result, I can only hope the same happens to this blog.
Day 15 - Hungary vs Belgium
Ok, I've given up on the big priced shots for now. I've been impressed by Hungary this tournament and they are playing well and playing with real passion. After holding Portugal to a high scoring draw I think they are good value in the double chance market to either win or draw this knockout match after 90 minutes at 5/4. The players seem to have really gelled as a team, not something you can say about the Belgians who definitely seem to be less than the sum of their parts so far. Even though they beat Ireland and Sweden I think they may find the teamwork and probably confidence of this Hungary team difficult to overcome, hence the Hungary or draw vote.
Day 15 - Hungary or Draw at 5/4
Day 15 - Hungary vs Belgium
Ok, I've given up on the big priced shots for now. I've been impressed by Hungary this tournament and they are playing well and playing with real passion. After holding Portugal to a high scoring draw I think they are good value in the double chance market to either win or draw this knockout match after 90 minutes at 5/4. The players seem to have really gelled as a team, not something you can say about the Belgians who definitely seem to be less than the sum of their parts so far. Even though they beat Ireland and Sweden I think they may find the teamwork and probably confidence of this Hungary team difficult to overcome, hence the Hungary or draw vote.
Day 15 - Hungary or Draw at 5/4
Friday 24 June 2016
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 14
Running total after Belgium only won at full time, not half time -4.17 units
We're out of Europe sadly, not England football team but the country as a whole, and also more happily the group stages and into the knockout of Euro 2016; with this I hope we will see some more attacking football. Because of the expansion in terms of number of teams competing, the group stage saw 3 teams qualify from most groups and this led to teams knowing that often a draw would be a good result in terms of their qualification. However, now we get to the knockout we are going to get a winner in each and every game, albeit it may take penalties to decide who progresses, and I think we will get a more attacking brand of football on offer. Penalties are a bit of a lottery, certainly England fans will not want to be relying on the dreaded spot kicks to decide their progression, and I think teams will want to avoid this if possible.
With this in mind let's progress to day 14, the first day of knockout football.
Day 14 - Goalscorer Treble
For day 14 we have three ties to choose from; Switzerland vs Poland, Wales vs Northern Ireland and Croatia vs Portugal. And it's a player from each of the three goals that I'm going to combine into a goalscorer treble for day 14's bet.
In Switzerland vs Poland I'm choosing Milik to score, he seems to be getting plenty of chances because of the attention teams are giving to his strike partner, Robert Lewandowski, and at 14/5 seems a generous price to notch.
From Wales vs Northern Ireland I'm going for the obvious; Gareth Bale. Bale has scored in each of the three games thus has a real chance of getting the Golden Boot award for top goalscorer, will be on set-pieces and is in cracking form, high on confidence. 29/20 for him.
And the final game, well it's the man who scored twice in the last game after coming under some heavy criticism for his performances prior to that; Cristiano Ronaldo. On his day he is the world's best player and Portugal will need him to be firing if they are to have any chance of progressing. And it's not like Ronaldo to miss a chance to grab the limelight, at 13/10 he completes the treble.
Day 14 - Milik, Bale and Ronaldo to score anytime @ 20.41/1 1 unit
We're out of Europe sadly, not England football team but the country as a whole, and also more happily the group stages and into the knockout of Euro 2016; with this I hope we will see some more attacking football. Because of the expansion in terms of number of teams competing, the group stage saw 3 teams qualify from most groups and this led to teams knowing that often a draw would be a good result in terms of their qualification. However, now we get to the knockout we are going to get a winner in each and every game, albeit it may take penalties to decide who progresses, and I think we will get a more attacking brand of football on offer. Penalties are a bit of a lottery, certainly England fans will not want to be relying on the dreaded spot kicks to decide their progression, and I think teams will want to avoid this if possible.
With this in mind let's progress to day 14, the first day of knockout football.
Day 14 - Goalscorer Treble
For day 14 we have three ties to choose from; Switzerland vs Poland, Wales vs Northern Ireland and Croatia vs Portugal. And it's a player from each of the three goals that I'm going to combine into a goalscorer treble for day 14's bet.
In Switzerland vs Poland I'm choosing Milik to score, he seems to be getting plenty of chances because of the attention teams are giving to his strike partner, Robert Lewandowski, and at 14/5 seems a generous price to notch.
From Wales vs Northern Ireland I'm going for the obvious; Gareth Bale. Bale has scored in each of the three games thus has a real chance of getting the Golden Boot award for top goalscorer, will be on set-pieces and is in cracking form, high on confidence. 29/20 for him.
And the final game, well it's the man who scored twice in the last game after coming under some heavy criticism for his performances prior to that; Cristiano Ronaldo. On his day he is the world's best player and Portugal will need him to be firing if they are to have any chance of progressing. And it's not like Ronaldo to miss a chance to grab the limelight, at 13/10 he completes the treble.
Day 14 - Milik, Bale and Ronaldo to score anytime @ 20.41/1 1 unit
Monday 20 June 2016
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 13
A welcome winner for us on day 12 as Poland overcome the Ukraine by a goal to nil and we're on to -3.17 units. Groups E and F finish today and we're heading to group E for today's best bet
Day 13 - Sweden vs Belgium
Sweden have been one of the worst teams I think so far, they have one player in Zlatan and they just can't get the ball to him enough for him to even make a difference. I am definitely looking to oppose them here with a Belgium team who, whilst disappointing many in their opening group game against Italy, come here off the back of a comfortable 3-0 win over The Republic of Ireland. They sit 2nd in the group and I think they will cement that position with a win over Sweden, and the price of 5/6 represents excellent value. I did look at Belgium in the half time/full time market, and was pleasantly surprised to see that it was priced up at around 2/1. And then the greedy part of my got excited.
I think Belgium may come out and try and secure a good lead by half-time so that they can rotate players in the 2nd half. And because I could really use a good winner to boost the bank balance the bet for me is Belgium/Belgium in the half time/full time market
Day 13 - Belgium/Belgium half time/full time, 2/1 (Coral)
Day 13 - Sweden vs Belgium
Sweden have been one of the worst teams I think so far, they have one player in Zlatan and they just can't get the ball to him enough for him to even make a difference. I am definitely looking to oppose them here with a Belgium team who, whilst disappointing many in their opening group game against Italy, come here off the back of a comfortable 3-0 win over The Republic of Ireland. They sit 2nd in the group and I think they will cement that position with a win over Sweden, and the price of 5/6 represents excellent value. I did look at Belgium in the half time/full time market, and was pleasantly surprised to see that it was priced up at around 2/1. And then the greedy part of my got excited.
I think Belgium may come out and try and secure a good lead by half-time so that they can rotate players in the 2nd half. And because I could really use a good winner to boost the bank balance the bet for me is Belgium/Belgium in the half time/full time market
Day 13 - Belgium/Belgium half time/full time, 2/1 (Coral)
Sunday 19 June 2016
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 12
Ouch, -4.17 units for us now after the snore fest of England Slovakia yesterday.
A plethora of games for us on day 12, with the culmination of groups C and D, and plenty to play for in both groups. Germany, Poland and Northern Ireland could all progress into the knockout stages in group C.
Day 12 - Ukraine vs Poland
Poland have been impressive to date, managing to gain 4 points (a win against Northern Ireland and a draw with Germany), whereas Ukraine are yet to gain a point, having lost to both Germany and Northern Ireland. Therefore, I think Poland represent great value at even money to win this game and progress from Group 7. Ukraine are guaranteed to finish bottom of this group, whereas Poland could actually still finish top with a win here and Germany not winning in the other game, so they should be bang up for this compared to Ukraine. They have shown much more in the tournament to date and see no reason why they will not be able to overcome a poor Ukraine side
Day 12 - Poland to win 1 unit even money
A plethora of games for us on day 12, with the culmination of groups C and D, and plenty to play for in both groups. Germany, Poland and Northern Ireland could all progress into the knockout stages in group C.
Day 12 - Ukraine vs Poland
Poland have been impressive to date, managing to gain 4 points (a win against Northern Ireland and a draw with Germany), whereas Ukraine are yet to gain a point, having lost to both Germany and Northern Ireland. Therefore, I think Poland represent great value at even money to win this game and progress from Group 7. Ukraine are guaranteed to finish bottom of this group, whereas Poland could actually still finish top with a win here and Germany not winning in the other game, so they should be bang up for this compared to Ukraine. They have shown much more in the tournament to date and see no reason why they will not be able to overcome a poor Ukraine side
Day 12 - Poland to win 1 unit even money
Friday 17 June 2016
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 10
Well when Ronaldo misses a penalty and has a header ruled out for offside you know it isn't your night, and that is what happened for us on day 9 as Portugal were held to a 0-0 by Austria. -2.17 units for us now and onto the final round of group matches
Day 10 Romania vs Albania
Day 10 sees the final round of group games in group A, currently topped by France, then the Swiss, with Romania on 1 point in third place and Albania propping up the group, yet to gain a point. A draw in the game between France and Switzerland would see both progress in the top 2 positions, whilst Romania retain a hope of reaching the knockout, either by pipping the Swiss to 2nd place or by becoming a third placed qualifier.
Therefore the team with the most to play for in the final set of group games in the Romanians, and to date they have actually looked fairly useful. They only narrowly went down to the French and then gained a creditable draw against the Swiss, so I think they will be able to overcome Albania and that leads me to the bet for day 10, Romania to win at a widely available 6/5.
Day 10, Romania to win, 1 unit (6/5)
Day 10 Romania vs Albania
Day 10 sees the final round of group games in group A, currently topped by France, then the Swiss, with Romania on 1 point in third place and Albania propping up the group, yet to gain a point. A draw in the game between France and Switzerland would see both progress in the top 2 positions, whilst Romania retain a hope of reaching the knockout, either by pipping the Swiss to 2nd place or by becoming a third placed qualifier.
Therefore the team with the most to play for in the final set of group games in the Romanians, and to date they have actually looked fairly useful. They only narrowly went down to the French and then gained a creditable draw against the Swiss, so I think they will be able to overcome Albania and that leads me to the bet for day 10, Romania to win at a widely available 6/5.
Day 10, Romania to win, 1 unit (6/5)
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 11
It's all gone downhill for us after the Croatian collapse and sooner or later they might threaten to kick me out of Euro 2016. -3.17 units for us now and onto the final round of group B matches
Day 11 England vs Slovakia
Well both these sides go into the final group game in contention to top the group. England come into the game off the back of a last gasp 2-1 victory over Wales whilst Slovakia were aided by a Hamsik masterclass as they brushed aside Russia 2 goals to nil. England sit top of the group on 4 points, whilst Slovakia have 3. What I'm certain of is both sides will be going to win this game.
England, I expect, will make changes to the starting 11 that we have seen so far, perhaps looking a bit more like the 2nd half team we saw last time out who managed to net twice and looked pretty threatening. Add to that the attacking flair Slovakia possess, basically in the shape of Hamsik, and the fact both teams will be eager to win this and I think the best bet is both teams to score at 11/10, pretty widely available.
As I've said, both teams will be going for the win here and if one team can get the first goal the other will then be forced to go more attacking in the quest to find an equaliser. We have players on the pitch who can score and neither defence is the most sound you will see this tournament. Goals in the play
Both teams to score, England vs Slovakia, 1 Unit (11/10)
Day 11 England vs Slovakia
Well both these sides go into the final group game in contention to top the group. England come into the game off the back of a last gasp 2-1 victory over Wales whilst Slovakia were aided by a Hamsik masterclass as they brushed aside Russia 2 goals to nil. England sit top of the group on 4 points, whilst Slovakia have 3. What I'm certain of is both sides will be going to win this game.
England, I expect, will make changes to the starting 11 that we have seen so far, perhaps looking a bit more like the 2nd half team we saw last time out who managed to net twice and looked pretty threatening. Add to that the attacking flair Slovakia possess, basically in the shape of Hamsik, and the fact both teams will be eager to win this and I think the best bet is both teams to score at 11/10, pretty widely available.
As I've said, both teams will be going for the win here and if one team can get the first goal the other will then be forced to go more attacking in the quest to find an equaliser. We have players on the pitch who can score and neither defence is the most sound you will see this tournament. Goals in the play
Both teams to score, England vs Slovakia, 1 Unit (11/10)
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 9
Day 8 was a winner for us , back to back winners was previously unheard of for the blog! I put up a nice win double, Italy and Croatia, and we're onto a figure of 3.36 units. Profit! Mental. And it's onto day 9 we go
........................
oh wait, scrap all that. That'll teach me to start writing the blog as the team I back go into a 2-0 lead as Croatia managed to chuck away their lead and only draw with the Czech Republic. So it's actually another losing bet, very annoying! And the actual figure is -1.17 units, not fair at all. The only thing that remains constant is that we are off onto the day 9 preview.
Day 9 Portugal vs Austria
Neither of these two teams impressed in the opening round, Portugal only managing a disappointing draw against Iceland whilst Austria were even worse, going down by 2 goals to nil to Hungary, many pundit's tip to finish bottom of this group. And for the bet of day 9, I'm backing Portugal to come out and improve massively against an Austrian team who will not be able to sit in a defend, due to their awful opening game result. They need the points if there are to harbour any hopes of going into the knockout stages and this will play into the hands of the Portuguese. There should be space for the attacking talent Portugal possess to exploit, and I can see Portugal getting the three points here.
Day 9 - Portugal to Win evens , 1 unit
........................
oh wait, scrap all that. That'll teach me to start writing the blog as the team I back go into a 2-0 lead as Croatia managed to chuck away their lead and only draw with the Czech Republic. So it's actually another losing bet, very annoying! And the actual figure is -1.17 units, not fair at all. The only thing that remains constant is that we are off onto the day 9 preview.
Day 9 Portugal vs Austria
Neither of these two teams impressed in the opening round, Portugal only managing a disappointing draw against Iceland whilst Austria were even worse, going down by 2 goals to nil to Hungary, many pundit's tip to finish bottom of this group. And for the bet of day 9, I'm backing Portugal to come out and improve massively against an Austrian team who will not be able to sit in a defend, due to their awful opening game result. They need the points if there are to harbour any hopes of going into the knockout stages and this will play into the hands of the Portuguese. There should be space for the attacking talent Portugal possess to exploit, and I can see Portugal getting the three points here.
Day 9 - Portugal to Win evens , 1 unit
Wednesday 15 June 2016
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 7
Day 6 was another loser, say no more, and we're onto a figure of -1.42 units. Onwards, and hopefully upwards!
Day 7 - England vs Wales
Well day seven and I have to go to the big crunch match, England vs Wales. The Welsh come into this game on the back of a 2-1 victory over Slovakia whereas England could only manage a 1-1 draw with Russia, despite playing fairly well I thought. The thing that caught my attention from those games was goals! Neither team look the strongest defensively whereas with the likes of Bale, Kane, Rooney and Ramsey on the pitch attacking football and goals must be likely!
I'm really unsure on the actual result of this game and if pressed I'd probably sit on the fence with a draw. However, for day 7's bet I'm taking the result out of the equation and opting for both teams to score at a tasty odds against price of 5/4 (Betfair).
Day 7 Both Teams to Score England vs Wales 1 unit 5/4
Day 7 - England vs Wales
Well day seven and I have to go to the big crunch match, England vs Wales. The Welsh come into this game on the back of a 2-1 victory over Slovakia whereas England could only manage a 1-1 draw with Russia, despite playing fairly well I thought. The thing that caught my attention from those games was goals! Neither team look the strongest defensively whereas with the likes of Bale, Kane, Rooney and Ramsey on the pitch attacking football and goals must be likely!
I'm really unsure on the actual result of this game and if pressed I'd probably sit on the fence with a draw. However, for day 7's bet I'm taking the result out of the equation and opting for both teams to score at a tasty odds against price of 5/4 (Betfair).
Day 7 Both Teams to Score England vs Wales 1 unit 5/4
One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 8
Day 7 was a winner for us and Roy's Boys! I put up BTTS in England vs Wales which landed at odds of 5/4 and we're onto a figure of -0.17 units. Onwards, and hopefully upwards towards a profit!
Day 8
One thing that shocked me, and the majority of punters judged on their movement in the outright market, was just how good Italy were against Belgium, the supposed 2nd best team in the world. Italy gave us a lesson in tournament football, winning 2-0 and looking excellent. Their opponents on Friday, Sweden, laboured to a 1-1 draw with Ireland in their opening fixture and I think the 5/6 available on Italy to beat the Swedes rates as a cracking bit of value.
However, another team to impress in the opening round of fixtures was Croatia, who comfortably dispatched Turkey 1-0 but were arguably value for more. The Czech Republic played with credit when holding Spain for 99% of their game, only to concede a last minute goal and go down 1-0. Losing that game means the Czech's will have to attack a bit more here, as while a 0-0 draw would have rated a sensational result against Spain 1 point will simply not be enough now for them. I think Croatia are well equipped to overcome the Czech and at 10/11 I want a bit of that value.
Therefore the bet for day 8 is a nice win double, combining Italy at 5/6 and Croatia at 10/11, coming in just over 5/2 (a £1 stake returns 3.53)
Day 8 - Italy and Croatia win double 3.53
Day 8
One thing that shocked me, and the majority of punters judged on their movement in the outright market, was just how good Italy were against Belgium, the supposed 2nd best team in the world. Italy gave us a lesson in tournament football, winning 2-0 and looking excellent. Their opponents on Friday, Sweden, laboured to a 1-1 draw with Ireland in their opening fixture and I think the 5/6 available on Italy to beat the Swedes rates as a cracking bit of value.
However, another team to impress in the opening round of fixtures was Croatia, who comfortably dispatched Turkey 1-0 but were arguably value for more. The Czech Republic played with credit when holding Spain for 99% of their game, only to concede a last minute goal and go down 1-0. Losing that game means the Czech's will have to attack a bit more here, as while a 0-0 draw would have rated a sensational result against Spain 1 point will simply not be enough now for them. I think Croatia are well equipped to overcome the Czech and at 10/11 I want a bit of that value.
Therefore the bet for day 8 is a nice win double, combining Italy at 5/6 and Croatia at 10/11, coming in just over 5/2 (a £1 stake returns 3.53)
Day 8 - Italy and Croatia win double 3.53
Tuesday 14 June 2016
One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 6
Day 5 was a loser, say no more, and we're onto a figure of -0.42 units. Onwards, and hopefully upwards!
Day 6 France vs Albania
We're onto the second round of group games and have now seen all the teams play once so we've a bit of an idea of how each Nation are playing. From their first match I think I can safely say France will be quite exciting going forward but shake at the back, while I was impressed with Albania who I thought were unlucky against the Swiss, maybe worth a point despite playing a deal of the game with ten men. This brings me to my day six bet which is France to win and both teams to score at a tasty 16/5. As I say I thought France were shaky at the back while Albania were unlucky not to bag against the Swiss and if they can keep 11 men on the pitch should be capable of scoring here. I fully expect France to overcome the Albanian by full time but think this is a great value bet, after all Albania did manage to score against the likes of Portugal in qualifying
Day 6 - France to win and BTTS 1 unit (16/5)
Day 6 France vs Albania
We're onto the second round of group games and have now seen all the teams play once so we've a bit of an idea of how each Nation are playing. From their first match I think I can safely say France will be quite exciting going forward but shake at the back, while I was impressed with Albania who I thought were unlucky against the Swiss, maybe worth a point despite playing a deal of the game with ten men. This brings me to my day six bet which is France to win and both teams to score at a tasty 16/5. As I say I thought France were shaky at the back while Albania were unlucky not to bag against the Swiss and if they can keep 11 men on the pitch should be capable of scoring here. I fully expect France to overcome the Albanian by full time but think this is a great value bet, after all Albania did manage to score against the likes of Portugal in qualifying
Day 6 - France to win and BTTS 1 unit (16/5)
Monday 13 June 2016
One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 5
Day 4 saw an excellent (makes a change) day for the blog as everything we discussed about Spain winning to nil, and with few goals in the game, came in. Unfortunately for the blog I only went with the conservative option of Spain to win to nil at 6/5, but it was a winner so I can't complain and it takes us to an overall figure of +0.58 Units. Onto day 5 we go
Day 5
Well for day 5 I'm going to definitely put up Austria to beat Hungary at a price of 3/4 but I'm going to also make it a double by combining it with a Portugal win over Iceland (4/7) for a combined double of 1.75/1, or 2.75 for those working in decimal odds. Both Austria and Portugal enjoyed excellent qualification for the tournament, Austria winning 9/10 games and Portugal 8/10, and I expect that winning form to be continued here. I think Hungary will be awful, I don't see them getting a point in their group, which is why I think Austria are such a good bet, even at odds on. And Portugal...well just Cristiano Ronaldo.
Day 5 Win Double - Austria and Portugal 1 unit (1.75/1)
Day 5
Well for day 5 I'm going to definitely put up Austria to beat Hungary at a price of 3/4 but I'm going to also make it a double by combining it with a Portugal win over Iceland (4/7) for a combined double of 1.75/1, or 2.75 for those working in decimal odds. Both Austria and Portugal enjoyed excellent qualification for the tournament, Austria winning 9/10 games and Portugal 8/10, and I expect that winning form to be continued here. I think Hungary will be awful, I don't see them getting a point in their group, which is why I think Austria are such a good bet, even at odds on. And Portugal...well just Cristiano Ronaldo.
Day 5 Win Double - Austria and Portugal 1 unit (1.75/1)
Sunday 12 June 2016
Royal Ascot Day 1 - The Best Day's Flat Racing of the Year
Day 1 of Royal Ascot is always an absolute cracker. Group 1 after Group 1 and the quality goes right through the day. It really is unmissable and even as a jumps fan mainly I can still get properly excited about it. And it helps when you have a few views on the races which I do, so here are my three main fancies for a fantastic day of flat racing.
I love Ger Lyon's Endless Drama for this race. He is a big, no huge, horse so will definitely have needed and come on for his re-appearance run in the Lockinge stakes the last day. He has a really high cruising speed and this test will suit him down to the ground, as will the softer going. Both the trainer and the rider Colin Keane love him and for good reason!
Colin Keane on Endless Drama:
“Endless Drama is just different gravy to anything else we have at home”
“He’s the best horse I’ve ever sat on”
“A horse like Brendan Bracken, who is a proper horse and a Group 3 winner, is not even good enough to lead him in canters”
"I’d be very confident of beating Belardo this time. We finished ahead of him in the Irish Guineas last year but he had 2 runs under his belt before the Lockinge and we were having our first run for over a year”
“It looks a wide-open race but our fella is a monster – I’m just praying they get a bit of rain”
“Endless Drama is just different class. He’s a monster”
Extremely positive from the jockey who is riding plenty of winners and a jockey I really like. Endless Drama has some very good form in the book already, his 2nd place in the Irish Guineas behind Gleneagles probably the standout, and I think there is loads more to come. He has been cut massively in the market after the recent rain but even at 8/1 currently available on Sunday evening this horse rates an absolutely cracking bet for the Queen Anne where one would imagine Tepin, market leader, will be vulnerable on softer ground. I can see him turning the form round with Belardo, who had the benefit of a recent run in the Lockinge, and quite frankly I love his price.
Even though this race is only a Group 2 it is still one of the best races of the day, bring together some of the best 2 year old horses around this year. And after the recent rain the one I fancy the most is Caravaggio for the formidable duo of Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore. This horse is unbeaten in his 2 races to day, beating Lundy, who reopposes here, on debut and then running a stunning race the last day at The Curragh, where he routed the field in a Listed race and produced a stunning time-figure to boot. This horse can run, and run quickly! He is also proven on soft ground, something that will prove crucial in this race against young, inexperienced horses and I can't see the step up in trip being an issue looking at his pedigree. He will probably go off market leader but I really like him and think he has a great chance and a great bet at around 2/1.
Jennie's Jewel is the bet here and I absolutely love this one. Will adore the soft ground that we will be getting at Ascot with all the rain about, all her form is on soft and heavy ground so she will be in her absolute element. Just watch her run the last day off a ten pound lower mark and tell me she isn't still well handicapped even off this higher mark; she absolutely laughed at her rivals that day. her mark of 93, for me, is so workable given she ran a cracker over hurdles at Punchestown off a mark of 137 (2nd to One Track Mind in a Grade 1, beating the likes of Alpha Des Obeaux and Diamond King) and can't jump! Take the hurdles away and she is a much better horse, her stamina is assured in my opinion having won over 3 miles over hurdles and she is clearly in good heart. I love this horse in this race and a price of 10/1 currently available at the time of writing (Sunday evening)
2.30 Queen Anne Stakes
I love Ger Lyon's Endless Drama for this race. He is a big, no huge, horse so will definitely have needed and come on for his re-appearance run in the Lockinge stakes the last day. He has a really high cruising speed and this test will suit him down to the ground, as will the softer going. Both the trainer and the rider Colin Keane love him and for good reason!
Colin Keane on Endless Drama:
“Endless Drama is just different gravy to anything else we have at home”
“He’s the best horse I’ve ever sat on”
“A horse like Brendan Bracken, who is a proper horse and a Group 3 winner, is not even good enough to lead him in canters”
"I’d be very confident of beating Belardo this time. We finished ahead of him in the Irish Guineas last year but he had 2 runs under his belt before the Lockinge and we were having our first run for over a year”
“It looks a wide-open race but our fella is a monster – I’m just praying they get a bit of rain”
“Endless Drama is just different class. He’s a monster”
Extremely positive from the jockey who is riding plenty of winners and a jockey I really like. Endless Drama has some very good form in the book already, his 2nd place in the Irish Guineas behind Gleneagles probably the standout, and I think there is loads more to come. He has been cut massively in the market after the recent rain but even at 8/1 currently available on Sunday evening this horse rates an absolutely cracking bet for the Queen Anne where one would imagine Tepin, market leader, will be vulnerable on softer ground. I can see him turning the form round with Belardo, who had the benefit of a recent run in the Lockinge, and quite frankly I love his price.
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| Endless Drama going down narrowly to Gleneagles in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. |
3.05 Coventry Stakes
Even though this race is only a Group 2 it is still one of the best races of the day, bring together some of the best 2 year old horses around this year. And after the recent rain the one I fancy the most is Caravaggio for the formidable duo of Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore. This horse is unbeaten in his 2 races to day, beating Lundy, who reopposes here, on debut and then running a stunning race the last day at The Curragh, where he routed the field in a Listed race and produced a stunning time-figure to boot. This horse can run, and run quickly! He is also proven on soft ground, something that will prove crucial in this race against young, inexperienced horses and I can't see the step up in trip being an issue looking at his pedigree. He will probably go off market leader but I really like him and think he has a great chance and a great bet at around 2/1.
5.00 Ascot Stakes
Jennie's Jewel is the bet here and I absolutely love this one. Will adore the soft ground that we will be getting at Ascot with all the rain about, all her form is on soft and heavy ground so she will be in her absolute element. Just watch her run the last day off a ten pound lower mark and tell me she isn't still well handicapped even off this higher mark; she absolutely laughed at her rivals that day. her mark of 93, for me, is so workable given she ran a cracker over hurdles at Punchestown off a mark of 137 (2nd to One Track Mind in a Grade 1, beating the likes of Alpha Des Obeaux and Diamond King) and can't jump! Take the hurdles away and she is a much better horse, her stamina is assured in my opinion having won over 3 miles over hurdles and she is clearly in good heart. I love this horse in this race and a price of 10/1 currently available at the time of writing (Sunday evening)
 |
| The lovely horse Jennies Jewel |
One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 4
Day 3 was another losing bet, taking my record to -1.62 Units so far and it may be best for your bank balance if you stop reading now. If you want to find a bet to avoid or even lay on the exchange then read on...
Day 4 - Spain vs Czech Republic
This looks one of the more tricky days which doesn't bode too well given my record thus far. I think Spain will beat the Czech Republic but they are a short enough price for the outright win and this has led me to look into a way of combining a Spanish win with goals to get a better price.
Looking back to the Spanish record in qualification leads me to a cracking (I think) bet. Spain only conceded three times in their qualification for this tournament; their last 8 games then won to nil. The Spanish are excellent at keeping the ball and making their opponents chase it, and as I'm sure Andy Townsend will tell us you need the ball if you are to score.
There are various ways you could play this; Spain to win to nil (6/5) , Spain and under 2.5 goals (11/5), Spain and under 1.5 goals (5/1) or a variation of that bet.
If you fancy Spain to win 1-0 or 2-0 then Spain and under 2.5 goals is the bet for you,.The more adventurous Spain and under 1.5 goals is effectively a bet on 1-0 Spain whilst Spain to win to nil allows for the prospect of Spain running wild. Looking at their qualification record they won 1-0 or 2-0 five times, the other 4 wins being by larger margins than 2 goals.
I'm going to play it safe and hopefully secure a win by going for Spain to win to nil
Day 4 - Spain to win to nil 1 unit (6/5)
Day 4 - Spain vs Czech Republic
This looks one of the more tricky days which doesn't bode too well given my record thus far. I think Spain will beat the Czech Republic but they are a short enough price for the outright win and this has led me to look into a way of combining a Spanish win with goals to get a better price.
Looking back to the Spanish record in qualification leads me to a cracking (I think) bet. Spain only conceded three times in their qualification for this tournament; their last 8 games then won to nil. The Spanish are excellent at keeping the ball and making their opponents chase it, and as I'm sure Andy Townsend will tell us you need the ball if you are to score.
There are various ways you could play this; Spain to win to nil (6/5) , Spain and under 2.5 goals (11/5), Spain and under 1.5 goals (5/1) or a variation of that bet.
If you fancy Spain to win 1-0 or 2-0 then Spain and under 2.5 goals is the bet for you,.The more adventurous Spain and under 1.5 goals is effectively a bet on 1-0 Spain whilst Spain to win to nil allows for the prospect of Spain running wild. Looking at their qualification record they won 1-0 or 2-0 five times, the other 4 wins being by larger margins than 2 goals.
I'm going to play it safe and hopefully secure a win by going for Spain to win to nil
Day 4 - Spain to win to nil 1 unit (6/5)
Saturday 11 June 2016
One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 3
Day 2 saw the first winning bet for the blog, as both teams notched in Wales vs Slovakia at 11/8, returning 2.38 units on a 1 unit stake and dragging us 0.38 units in profit. However, I need to take a unit off that for my 0.5 unit stake on both Cahill and Smalling to score first, leaving the running total at -0.62 units
Day 3 - Turkey vs Croatia
Another day, another both teams to score bet. This time it's in the Turkey vs Croatia game where I think both teams will find the net.
Croatia have some fine midfield talent in Modric and Rakitic who can ensure that Manzukic up front receives plenty of service. They come in here fresh from putting 10 (ten) goals past San Marino in a friendly and will be fairly high on confidence that they can at the very least get out of this group.
Turkey played England recently in a friendly and looked quite threatening going forward. They have scored in their last 5 games, in 3 of those both teams have scored, and I think they will know they have to score if they are to get anything out of this game realistically. In qualifying they scored past the likes of The Netherlands, Czech Republic and Iceland so I feel they are capable of finding the net here
Day 3 recommended bet - Both teams to Score 11/10 (Paddy Power)
Day 3 - Turkey vs Croatia
Another day, another both teams to score bet. This time it's in the Turkey vs Croatia game where I think both teams will find the net.
Croatia have some fine midfield talent in Modric and Rakitic who can ensure that Manzukic up front receives plenty of service. They come in here fresh from putting 10 (ten) goals past San Marino in a friendly and will be fairly high on confidence that they can at the very least get out of this group.
Turkey played England recently in a friendly and looked quite threatening going forward. They have scored in their last 5 games, in 3 of those both teams have scored, and I think they will know they have to score if they are to get anything out of this game realistically. In qualifying they scored past the likes of The Netherlands, Czech Republic and Iceland so I feel they are capable of finding the net here
Day 3 recommended bet - Both teams to Score 11/10 (Paddy Power)
A look at Royal Ascot - 2 horses on the opening 2 days
With Royal Ascot just over the horizon (we've got to get through Sunday evening first) and the ground now almost certainly set to be on the soft side of good with the recent rain I thought I'd just write a little about two of the horses I fancy most for the Royal feast of racing
Queen Anne - Endless Drama
I love Ger Lyon's Endless Drama for this race. He is a big, no huge, horse so will definitely have needed and come on for his re-appearance run in the Lockinge stakes the last day. He has a really high cruising speed and this test will suit him down to the ground, as will the softer going. Both the trainer and the rider Colin Keane love him and for good reason!
Colin Keane on Endless Drama:
“Endless Drama is just different gravy to anything else we have at home”
“He’s the best horse I’ve ever sat on”
“A horse like Brendan Bracken, who is a proper horse and a Group 3 winner, is not even good enough to lead him in canters”
"I’d be very confident of beating Belardo this time. We finished ahead of him in the Irish Guineas last year but he had 2 runs under his belt before the Lockinge and we were having our first run for over a year”
“It looks a wide-open race but our fella is a monster – I’m just praying they get a bit of rain”
“Endless Drama is just different class. He’s a monster”
Extremely positive from the jockey who is riding plenty of winners and a jockey I really like. Endless Drama has some very good form in the book already, his 2nd place in the Irish Guineas behind Gleneagles probably the standout, and I think there is loads more to come. At 10/1 with Bet365 this horse rates an absolutely cracking bet for the Queen Anne where one would imagine Tepin, market leader, will be vulnerable on softer ground. I can see him turning the form round with Belardo, who had the benefit of a recent run in the Lockinge, and quite frankly I love his price.
Duke of Cambridge - Usherette
An Andre Fabre filly must always be high on anyone's shortlist when looking at a race and in Usherette he has a very special horse. This filly came over here for the Dehlia stakes at Newmarket in May and absolutely routed a good field, leaving the likes of Amazing Maria, Jazzi Top and Arabian Queen in her wake as she romped to victory. That race was her comeback race for the season and one would imagine she will come on for that and be even better this time.
Usherette has raced 5 times in her career to date, winning 4 of those races, and is proven on soft and good ground so we need not worry about ground conditions on Wednesday. Andre Fabre absolutely loves this horse; in a recent press day ahead of the Royal meeting John Ferguson, Godolphin Chief Executive, has this to say
"I love talking to Andre Fabre about this filly," said Ferguson. "He gets the biggest smile on his face when talking about Usherette [and] he's an extraordinary judge."
The trainer is excited, the owners are excited and I am excited by Usherette. She will carry a penalty on Wednesday but that field she beat was pretty good at Newmarket, her form stacks up against her chief rivals (for example she beat Irish Rookie far more easily than Devonshire did) and everything looks set for her to add another Group 2 race to her roster.
Queen Anne - Endless Drama
I love Ger Lyon's Endless Drama for this race. He is a big, no huge, horse so will definitely have needed and come on for his re-appearance run in the Lockinge stakes the last day. He has a really high cruising speed and this test will suit him down to the ground, as will the softer going. Both the trainer and the rider Colin Keane love him and for good reason!
Colin Keane on Endless Drama:
“Endless Drama is just different gravy to anything else we have at home”
“He’s the best horse I’ve ever sat on”
“A horse like Brendan Bracken, who is a proper horse and a Group 3 winner, is not even good enough to lead him in canters”
"I’d be very confident of beating Belardo this time. We finished ahead of him in the Irish Guineas last year but he had 2 runs under his belt before the Lockinge and we were having our first run for over a year”
“It looks a wide-open race but our fella is a monster – I’m just praying they get a bit of rain”
“Endless Drama is just different class. He’s a monster”
Extremely positive from the jockey who is riding plenty of winners and a jockey I really like. Endless Drama has some very good form in the book already, his 2nd place in the Irish Guineas behind Gleneagles probably the standout, and I think there is loads more to come. At 10/1 with Bet365 this horse rates an absolutely cracking bet for the Queen Anne where one would imagine Tepin, market leader, will be vulnerable on softer ground. I can see him turning the form round with Belardo, who had the benefit of a recent run in the Lockinge, and quite frankly I love his price.
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| Endless Drama going down narrowly to Gleneagles in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. |
Duke of Cambridge - Usherette
An Andre Fabre filly must always be high on anyone's shortlist when looking at a race and in Usherette he has a very special horse. This filly came over here for the Dehlia stakes at Newmarket in May and absolutely routed a good field, leaving the likes of Amazing Maria, Jazzi Top and Arabian Queen in her wake as she romped to victory. That race was her comeback race for the season and one would imagine she will come on for that and be even better this time.
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| The beautiful Usherette at Newmarket |
Usherette has raced 5 times in her career to date, winning 4 of those races, and is proven on soft and good ground so we need not worry about ground conditions on Wednesday. Andre Fabre absolutely loves this horse; in a recent press day ahead of the Royal meeting John Ferguson, Godolphin Chief Executive, has this to say
"I love talking to Andre Fabre about this filly," said Ferguson. "He gets the biggest smile on his face when talking about Usherette [and] he's an extraordinary judge."
The trainer is excited, the owners are excited and I am excited by Usherette. She will carry a penalty on Wednesday but that field she beat was pretty good at Newmarket, her form stacks up against her chief rivals (for example she beat Irish Rookie far more easily than Devonshire did) and everything looks set for her to add another Group 2 race to her roster.
Friday 10 June 2016
One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 2
Day 1 was a loser, annoyingly Patrice Evra gave away a stupid penalty and Romania managed to bag a goal. Perhaps 35 years young is not the prime year of a footballer's career. Still, Payet got them out of a hole in the latter stages of the game and lit up the game with an early contender for goal of the tournament. Let's hope things can improve for this blog as well, maybe a bit of the Payet magic will rub off on us.
Running total - 1 Unit
Day 2 - Wales vs Slovakia
Day 2 and I'm going for goals; I think both teams will come into this game targeting this match as a possible 3 points in their quest to finish 2nd in the group and qualify for the knockout stages of the tournament.
Wales will be relying on Gareth Bale for their goals and with him in the team they have a constant goal threat. However, he is supported by some capable players, the likes of Joe Allen, possibly Joe Ledley and Aaron Ramsay and will surely be capable of getting on the scoresheet.
Slovakia like a few goals in their games; both teams have scored in 6 out of Slovakia's last 8 games. They are a strong unit as proved by their 3-1 friendly win over Germany in the build up to this tournament and have some formidable players, most notably Hamsik who scored in the game against the Germans.
I think with both teams keen to get off to a good start in the group we will get at least a goal each for Wales and Slovakia
Bet 2 - Both Teams to Score - 11/8 (Bet365) 1 Unit
Edit - England Bet added!
I realised I couldn't really neglect the England match in my preview so I'll cheat a bit and add in an extra bet for the days England are playing if I haven't recommended a bet in that match. After all, I lack all discipline in my horse racing betting so why change the habit of a lifetime!
So for the opening game of England's Euro campaign they face a Russian side who would pose a serious threat but for the face their midfield has been decimated by injuries. Igor Denisov is one of five notable absentees from their squad, joining Alan Dzagoev, Denis Cheryshev, Yuri Zhirkov and Oleg Kuzmin. Because of this I think Russia will now aim to frustrate, and this England side are fairly easily frustrated. They will be hard to break down and I think we may have to rely on a set piece for the opening game for England. Therefore I'm going with a fairly outlandish first goalscorer bet. Both Chris Smalling and Gary Cahill are available at big odds, 33/1 and 40/1, to open the scoring so I suggest 0.5 points on both of these players.
Bet 3 - Chris Smalling First Goalscorer 0.5 points 33/1 Bet365
- Gary Cahill First Goalscorer 0.5 points 40/1 Betbright
Running total - 1 Unit
Day 2 - Wales vs Slovakia
Day 2 and I'm going for goals; I think both teams will come into this game targeting this match as a possible 3 points in their quest to finish 2nd in the group and qualify for the knockout stages of the tournament.
Wales will be relying on Gareth Bale for their goals and with him in the team they have a constant goal threat. However, he is supported by some capable players, the likes of Joe Allen, possibly Joe Ledley and Aaron Ramsay and will surely be capable of getting on the scoresheet.
Slovakia like a few goals in their games; both teams have scored in 6 out of Slovakia's last 8 games. They are a strong unit as proved by their 3-1 friendly win over Germany in the build up to this tournament and have some formidable players, most notably Hamsik who scored in the game against the Germans.
I think with both teams keen to get off to a good start in the group we will get at least a goal each for Wales and Slovakia
Bet 2 - Both Teams to Score - 11/8 (Bet365) 1 Unit
Edit - England Bet added!
I realised I couldn't really neglect the England match in my preview so I'll cheat a bit and add in an extra bet for the days England are playing if I haven't recommended a bet in that match. After all, I lack all discipline in my horse racing betting so why change the habit of a lifetime!
So for the opening game of England's Euro campaign they face a Russian side who would pose a serious threat but for the face their midfield has been decimated by injuries. Igor Denisov is one of five notable absentees from their squad, joining Alan Dzagoev, Denis Cheryshev, Yuri Zhirkov and Oleg Kuzmin. Because of this I think Russia will now aim to frustrate, and this England side are fairly easily frustrated. They will be hard to break down and I think we may have to rely on a set piece for the opening game for England. Therefore I'm going with a fairly outlandish first goalscorer bet. Both Chris Smalling and Gary Cahill are available at big odds, 33/1 and 40/1, to open the scoring so I suggest 0.5 points on both of these players.
Bet 3 - Chris Smalling First Goalscorer 0.5 points 33/1 Bet365
- Gary Cahill First Goalscorer 0.5 points 40/1 Betbright
One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 1
So for the next few weeks I'm going to try and have a bet a day throughout the Euro 2016 tournament in France, starting today, and see if I can return a profit...I'll be keeping a running total and using oddschecker to get the best price, so off we go with day 1
Day 1 - France vs Romania
I fully expect Romania to try and keep things tight, frustrating the French and really trying to get a draw here. And they do have previous, they have managed away draws with Hungary, Northern Ireland and best of all Italy in the last year or so, so their defence must be respected. However, the French look very formidable opponents going forward, far better than the teams previously mentioned, and I think will be able to make the breakthrough eventually. I don't expect a barrel load of goals but do think France will get off to a winning start. Therefore the recommended bet is a France win and under 2.5 goals in the game.
Bet 1 - France to win and under 2.5 goals Odds - 9/5 (Stan James) 1 Unit
Day 1 - France vs Romania
I fully expect Romania to try and keep things tight, frustrating the French and really trying to get a draw here. And they do have previous, they have managed away draws with Hungary, Northern Ireland and best of all Italy in the last year or so, so their defence must be respected. However, the French look very formidable opponents going forward, far better than the teams previously mentioned, and I think will be able to make the breakthrough eventually. I don't expect a barrel load of goals but do think France will get off to a winning start. Therefore the recommended bet is a France win and under 2.5 goals in the game.
Bet 1 - France to win and under 2.5 goals Odds - 9/5 (Stan James) 1 Unit
Thursday 2 June 2016
The Epsom Derby - 4th June 2016
On Saturday at Epsom Downs Racecourse we will have the richest ever running of the Derby, thanks mainly to the number of supplemented runners in this year's renewal. This is due to the open nature the Derby had to it, with no real standout performer on from thus far.
The two at the top of the market, US Army Ranger and Wings of Desire, well....US Army Ranger was extremely lucky to win at Chester the last day and Wings of Desire himself had to be supplemented after being withdrawn by the trainer at an earlier stage! If you fancy either of these you can get around 4/1. For me US Army Ranger may be a little immature for a race of this nature but could be the best horse in time. Wings of Desire would be the one of the two I favour at the head of the market, he is already proven over the trip and won the best Derby trial in the Dante at York (beating Deauville in the process who reposes). However, against both of these is that neither raced at two, both made debuts this year, and while horses have overcome this (Ruler of the World an example from the O'Brien yard) it is a big ask as it requires a horse to learn a lot in a short space of time. Epsom is a daunting arena, the atmosphere cannot be underestimated, and this potential lack of experience may be a slight negative.
Looking around the market at a few others at short prices and I am shocked at quite how short Ulysses is. For sure, he represents top connections that cannot be underestimated but this horse's form, winning a maiden so far, do not merit a price of 7/1 for the Derby! He is rated 98, a full 16lbs lower than Wings of Desire, on his form in the book so it seems crackers to me that he can be so short. Not for me at that price.
The two at the top of the market, US Army Ranger and Wings of Desire, well....US Army Ranger was extremely lucky to win at Chester the last day and Wings of Desire himself had to be supplemented after being withdrawn by the trainer at an earlier stage! If you fancy either of these you can get around 4/1. For me US Army Ranger may be a little immature for a race of this nature but could be the best horse in time. Wings of Desire would be the one of the two I favour at the head of the market, he is already proven over the trip and won the best Derby trial in the Dante at York (beating Deauville in the process who reposes). However, against both of these is that neither raced at two, both made debuts this year, and while horses have overcome this (Ruler of the World an example from the O'Brien yard) it is a big ask as it requires a horse to learn a lot in a short space of time. Epsom is a daunting arena, the atmosphere cannot be underestimated, and this potential lack of experience may be a slight negative.
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| 2015 Derby winner Golden Horn |
Looking around the market at a few others at short prices and I am shocked at quite how short Ulysses is. For sure, he represents top connections that cannot be underestimated but this horse's form, winning a maiden so far, do not merit a price of 7/1 for the Derby! He is rated 98, a full 16lbs lower than Wings of Desire, on his form in the book so it seems crackers to me that he can be so short. Not for me at that price.
I'm not massively clued up on my French form but from what I've read the form of Cloth of Stars isn't actually that good and he is the price he is based on the fact he is trained by Andre Fabre, winner of course with Pour Moi, also ridden by Mickael Barzalona. Algometer will need the rain to come again for him to have a chance and for Harzand the same statement applies.
Shogun has a lot of experience but I'd be disappointed if he is good enough to win a Derby and looks held by a few of these on form and is a more likely place candidate. If I were to bet one of the O'Brien contingent it would be Port Douglas who really should have beat the favourite US Army Ranger last time out but for a very tender ride! The trip should be within his compass, he handled Chester and the tight turns at that track perfectly well and good and soft ground come alike - he handles both fine. At current price of 12/1 he looks the most backable of the O'Brien lot to me.
I'll get around to the one I do like and that comes in the shape of Moonlight Magic for Jim Bolger. I'd like the yard to be in better form but he is having a few winners and Moonlight magic has some excellent form, most notably his win last time out in the Derrinstown, a notable trial race. Forgive his flop the time before when thrashed by Harzand, the ground was far too soft that day, and Moonlight Magic is unbeaten on decent ground. He stays a 10f trip no problem, I see no reason why he won't handle this extra 2 furlongs, and Kevin Manning has become very experienced on top of this one. Bolger will know what it takes to win the race after he trained New Approach to victory in 2008 and he seems certain this horse will get the trip. The wise trainer has had this to say
"I rate him as a good Derby prospect and I would not swap him for anything else in the race.
"He has the looks, the demeanour, the balance and temperament to go with his pedigree. He is a beautifully-balanced horse so he should handle Epsom well. I thought when he won the Derrinstown he was as good a Derrinstown winner as St Jovite. I could not be any happier than I am with him at the moment. He is very straightforward and is a lovely horse to work with. There are no holes in this fellow."
Some very taking quotes from Jim! As I say, ignore his flop in the heavy ground and he would be a fair few points shorter for this race. He rates my main selection at a nice enough 12/1
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| Derby selection Moonlight Magic |
The Investec Oaks - 3rd June 2016
In just a few days time we will be treated to the Oaks and Derby, two absolutely brilliant races and in the Derby potentially the greatest flat race of them all. Run over 1 mile 4 furlongs around the tricky Epsom Downs racecourse, with it's notorious left hand turn and undulating nature making it a stern test for many a horse. The Oaks comes first, on Friday afternoon, so I'll turn my thoughts to this race first.
The market for the Oaks is headed by Minding, Aidan O'Brien's filly who comes here after winning the English 1,000 Guineas but being beaten in the Irish version on much softer ground. Further cause for concern for backers of this evens favourite come in the shape of the sinus problem encountered by the filly after she bumped her head before the race. She probably is the best of these fillies, certainly at a mile trip, and that defeat in Ireland still rates as very good form - the Irish Handicapper rated Jet Setting only 1lbs lower than the winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas, indicating with mares allowances Jet Setting would have pulverized that field. However, the step up in trip 4 furlongs, the tough race she had the last day and the fact her pedigree doesn't scream 1 mile 4 furlongs at you on softish ground lead me to look elsewhere.
Architecture is the most interesting one for me representing the yard of Hugo Palmer at 10/1. The trainer must be respected and he handled Covert Love with expert gloves so clearly can get his fillies to peak when he wants - lucky man. Went down a neck to Seventh Heaven, another Aidan O'Brien horse, in an Oaks trial at Lingfield and also was present at the Breakfast with the Stars event here so she should handle the track and has the magician Frankie Dettori on top. The winner at Lingfield was given an expert ride by Ryan Moore, who actually said she didn't handle that track, which gives me hope Architecture can turn the form around.
She was definitely staying on at the end of that trial and I think she will get the trip, additionally she has form on soft ground so will handle the going conditions presented on Friday. I'm pretty confident she is improving all the time and Hugo Palmer seems to be fairly confident in his Betfair column, which you can read here-> (Hugo Palmer Betfair Column). If the favourite gets the trip she wins, but at the price I want to take her on and it looks an open enough race behind her, let's hope Architecture can do the business.
Others of interest include Turret Rocks, who definitely shapes like this trip will suit her but Jim Bolger isn't firing in the winners as I would like and the soft conditions will be against her, having never tan on soft ground. If it dried up rapidly before the off she must be considered but the fact soft ground is very likely puts me off. Skiffle has been supplemented for the race by the boys in blue and she is one that should certainly get the trip having shaped that way over 10 furlongs. At 11/2 though I'd let her go as I also feel she wants top of the ground to be at her best. Finally Harlequeen is the last horse of interest mainly because I'm interested that Mick Channon pitches her in here, but she didn't settle at all at York the last day and I think the occasion may get to her here.
Don't be put off by the price of your fancy in this race - 4 of the last 5 winners have been priced at 20/1 or bigger, including last year's winner Qualify at 50/1! To sum up I think Minding will win if she stays as she is the best filly in the race no doubt. However, her price is short enough, there are huge concerns about the trip and ground and I think her preparation could have been more ideal. Therefore, with likely softer ground, I'm putting up Architecture who has run well in trial races, has had a go round the track at the Breakfast with the Stars event and has the master Frankie Dettori on board.
Thanks for reading and good luck!
The market for the Oaks is headed by Minding, Aidan O'Brien's filly who comes here after winning the English 1,000 Guineas but being beaten in the Irish version on much softer ground. Further cause for concern for backers of this evens favourite come in the shape of the sinus problem encountered by the filly after she bumped her head before the race. She probably is the best of these fillies, certainly at a mile trip, and that defeat in Ireland still rates as very good form - the Irish Handicapper rated Jet Setting only 1lbs lower than the winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas, indicating with mares allowances Jet Setting would have pulverized that field. However, the step up in trip 4 furlongs, the tough race she had the last day and the fact her pedigree doesn't scream 1 mile 4 furlongs at you on softish ground lead me to look elsewhere.
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| Hot favourite Minding |
Architecture is the most interesting one for me representing the yard of Hugo Palmer at 10/1. The trainer must be respected and he handled Covert Love with expert gloves so clearly can get his fillies to peak when he wants - lucky man. Went down a neck to Seventh Heaven, another Aidan O'Brien horse, in an Oaks trial at Lingfield and also was present at the Breakfast with the Stars event here so she should handle the track and has the magician Frankie Dettori on top. The winner at Lingfield was given an expert ride by Ryan Moore, who actually said she didn't handle that track, which gives me hope Architecture can turn the form around.
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| The Lingfield trial in which Architecture finished 2nd |
Others of interest include Turret Rocks, who definitely shapes like this trip will suit her but Jim Bolger isn't firing in the winners as I would like and the soft conditions will be against her, having never tan on soft ground. If it dried up rapidly before the off she must be considered but the fact soft ground is very likely puts me off. Skiffle has been supplemented for the race by the boys in blue and she is one that should certainly get the trip having shaped that way over 10 furlongs. At 11/2 though I'd let her go as I also feel she wants top of the ground to be at her best. Finally Harlequeen is the last horse of interest mainly because I'm interested that Mick Channon pitches her in here, but she didn't settle at all at York the last day and I think the occasion may get to her here.
Don't be put off by the price of your fancy in this race - 4 of the last 5 winners have been priced at 20/1 or bigger, including last year's winner Qualify at 50/1! To sum up I think Minding will win if she stays as she is the best filly in the race no doubt. However, her price is short enough, there are huge concerns about the trip and ground and I think her preparation could have been more ideal. Therefore, with likely softer ground, I'm putting up Architecture who has run well in trial races, has had a go round the track at the Breakfast with the Stars event and has the master Frankie Dettori on board.
Thanks for reading and good luck!
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