Royal Ascot - review and preview

What a great meeting we've had at Royal Ascot so far an it's safe to say if you are a favourite backer chances are you've made a fair chunk of money! The first three days were an absolute bloodbath for the bookies, but they did strike back on Friday and we are in for a great deciding day on Saturday in the punter vs layer battle which makes for an interesting sidenote to the equine action. Personally the performance of Estimate even in defeat was a notable highlight and you have to take your hat off to the great Sir Michael Stoute who almost pulled off an incredible training performance to win the showcase race of the meeting off an interrupted preparation; as it was it was just an very very good one!

The Tuesday certainly didn't disappoint, it really is an amazing way to open the Royal meeting and Kingman was the star of the show, blowing away all his rivals to claim the St James's Palace Stakes in scintillating fashion to set up a possible Goodwood showdown with another victor on the Tuesday card in Toronado, who bounced back to his best to land the Queen Anne. The highlight of the day for me was seeing the unbelievable turn of foot Sole Power possesses unleashed in lethal fashion as Richard Hughes produced him late to win the King's Stand Stakes in authoritative fashion and on fast ground he really is without doubt the champion sprinter in England and Ireland. Finally it was great to see The Wow Signal win the Coventry to start of the partnership between the Quinn Stable and Al Shaqab Racing on a high note. The Quinn stable are one I really admire and I'd love this to be the start of big big things for this admirable Yorkshire stable.

Over Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as I say Estimate was the star of the show in my opinion. We had the shock of Arc Heroine Treve getting turned over again, she looks a shadow of the horse that won the Arc so impressively last year although her trainer has said there may be a physical issue behind her decline in form. It was great to see The Fugue performing as we know she is capable of again after some sub-par performances to claim the Prince of Wales's Stakes at the expense of Treve however and trainer/jockey combo worked together again to great effect on day 4 of the meeting to claim the King Edward VII stakes with Eagle Top. Eagle Top was hugely impressive in victory and quotes of 14/1 post race about Arc glory for this one are certainly not un-appealing. Finally it was fantastic to see Clive Brittain's faith in his filly Rizeena rewarded as she won the Coronation Stakes on Friday and we were treated to a mighty victory jig in the winners enclosure. This was much more like the Filly Brittain thought he had on his hands earlier in the year before her disappointing run in the English Guineas and it's always nice to see Clive a happy man!

Looking ahead to Saturday and the big race of the day is the Diamond Jubilee, a 6 furlong sprint for which Aljamaaheer will go off favourite for Roger Varian and Paul Hanagan. It was always hoped sprinting trips would bring out the best in him and it will be fascinating if he can prove himself in Group 1 company. He has form over the mile trip at Ascot but obviously this is a much different test and I'd actually rather be on Slade Power of the market leaders. Edward Lynam has already proved himself a top trainer of sprinters earlier in the week and Slade Power looked better than ever on reappearance when dispatching the smart Maarek on ground Maarek would have loved. Sole Power has won on good ground though so definitely shouldn't be labelled as a mudlark and the ground on Friday was riding a tad softer than previous days anyhow. Slade Power can prove himself as a real high class sprinter here.

Telegraph continues his recover mission in the Hardwick stakes at 3.45 and the firmer surface he will encounter at Ascot will be more to his liking to the softer going on which Noble Mission has defeated him the last twice. Noble Mission has franked that form since however and Telegraph should certainly go close here with Ryan Moore favouring the former Derby favourite over stablemate Hillstar, presumaby having had the choice of both. Forgotten Voice represents Nicky Henderson as he ventures over onto the flat and looks primed to run well on the firm surface he will encounter here, he certainly won't be found wanting for stamina but you would like to think Telegraph will have too much class for him. Of the others Dandino would be interesting but may need the run, Sharestan and Cambourne will find the going much too fast, Eye of The Storm looks better over further and the rest shouldn't really be good enough to challenge Telescope in my opinion. I think this could be another race where favourite backers make hay and Telescope is the selection.

The Wokingham and the Duke of Edinburgh both look fiendishly difficult puzzles to solve and I really couldn't put anything up with any degree of confidence in either! It's to the final race of the day, the longest race on the flat calendar where I have my final selection and this time I am siding with a Henderson horse in Royal Irish Hussar. I was quite a fan of this horse over the winter but after initially looking very good with three victories in quick succession his form tailed off somewhat. It could be that the three quick runs were too much for the horse, however even a break between December and March didn't seem to revive him and I'm actually hoping the change of scenery can prove the oracle here in addition to another month off the track. Perhaps mentally he has just had enough of jumping, he certainly wouldn't be the first horse to which this has happened. Royal Irish Hussar did start life off as a flat horse and has a victory over 1 mile 6f to his name so will have a nice turn of pace to help him if this race does turn tactical. Spencer will give his horse every chance of getting this unique trip and at 12/1 I'm siding with him here.

Just as a sidenote away from the glamour of the Royal meeting a few I really like today are...

At Haydock it's worth waiting until 9:20 to have a bet on New Street. Richard Fahey thinks everything - trip, track etc, looks bang on for this one today and he can go close at 4/1 in his last run before he's off to the sales.
In the 3.55 at Redcar Crisis Averted goes in a first time visor who has also been gelded prior to his last start at Doncaster. With the visor on for the first time in the hope of seeing out a bit more improvement it surprised me to see Fahey's horse available at 8/1 in the market. Definitely worthy of e/w interest.
Finally at a shorter price down at Newmarket in the 5.15 Tanzeel is highly thought of by Charlie Hills, who said in a stable tour he just needed a bit of time and is a horse he likes a lot. Hills thinks he can make his mark in some nice handicaps this season and with C&D form on his side should be up to winning this.

It's already been a great meeting so far so lets hope the last day of Royal Ascot can prove a goodun and give the Royal meet the send off it deserves.

Thanks for reading!

A Royal feast of racing

Royal Ascot kicks off this Tuesday to add to the absolute feast of sporting action currently happening around the globe and we really are spoilt with some great action in store at the Berkshire venue. The Tuesday starts us off and we have not one, not two but THREE Group 1 races on the card as per tradition for the Royal meet, as well as the Group 2 Coventry. What a fantastic way to start the meeting and I'll check out the opening day in this blog.

The Queen Anne starts us off over a mile and Toronado looks like going off favourite for this race. However I really like the chances of the Aidan O'Brien trained Verrazano who will certainly have come on from his seasonal debut where many paddock judges commented on his huge physique. Verrazano ran with credit that day to finish third behind Olympic Glory on his European debut and the fast surface he will encounter at Ascot will definitely suit him down to a tee. Toronado is a worthy favourite and the Hannon team could barely be in better form but this is his seasonal debut and it could be Verrazano can make his race fitness count. Soft Falling Rain hasn't had great preparation for this clash judging by trainer comments so I'm certainly keen to take him on and at 3/1 Verrazano is the play for me.

The Coventry follows on from the Queen Anne and is one of the top juvenile races of the European racing season. We see some really exciting horses lining up here and this isn't a race I'll be betting in, however I do hope that John Quinn can get his partnership with Al Shaqab racing off to a flying start with his impressive Ayr scorer The Wow Signal. He faces the highly regarded War Envoy from the all powerful O'Brien team who do so well with horses from that sire, and you can never ignore a Hannon/Hughes juvenile in these races - they have the unbeaten Kool Kompany in this race. Definitely one to watch back a few times on the video replay after the event!

We're back into Group 1 action again after the youngsters with the 5 furlong King Stand Stakes up for the speedsters. Shea Shea, Sole Power and Hot Streak will dominate the market, however I would rather see Ryan Moore on Sole Power as he gets on so well with the horse. In fact I'm surprised that Sole Power is even running after the owners of the horse said that Ryan Moore riding was one of the keys to where Sole Power would line up and I'll take him on even though Hughes is certainly no bad replacement! Hot Streak is a horse of real potential and I don't think the quicker surface he will encounter here will go against him, in fact it might help us get a better price as punters are put off when they see the best of his form has come on a softer surface. Of the market principles he is definitely the one I like the most. At a bigger price I think Medicean Man could run well after being freshened up with a nice break after his Meydan adventures. He has C&D form, will like the quicker surface and is attractively prices at 20/1.

The final Group 1 of the day, and for my money the best one, is the St James's Palace stakes, also over a mile, for the three year olds. Kingman, winner of the Irish Guineas, meets the horse that beat him in the English version in Night of Thunder and is an 11/10 shot to gain revenge. However with the ground looking like coming up quick for this race I'm keen to find something to oppose Kingman with and Outstrip is that horse for me. You can get around 20/1 for a horse who will love the quicker surface of Ascot as well as the turning mile as this is similar to what he would have been racing on over in America. He was heavily eased when beaten in the Guineas but Buick now takes the ride and he has struck up a good relationship with Charlie Appleby this season. I expect the Ascot course to suit him more than the straight mile at Newmarket and I can't resist a bite of the big prices on offer. I've also read a few trainer quotes recently from Appleby who has said that his horse came back from the Guineas with a cough so they have given him a bit of time off and got him spot on for this assignment. It could be that Outstrip wasn't 100% for the first classic of the season and certainly the trainer is hopeful that his charge will perform with much more credit this time up and is not to be ruled out of contention by punters - we have been told!

That's it as far as the preview for a really exciting opening day at the Royal meeting is concerned, I for one can't wait for it!

Thanks for reading!

Derby Day at Epsom

Derby Day at Epsom is on our doorstep but who knows what the weather will decide to do on the big day...will we get the torrential rain some are forecasting or will the unique venue dodge the water from the sky? As we stand the ground is good racing ground, however this could quickly turn soft if the rain does come and we must consider this as we ponder selections for the big day at the Surrey venue.

2.05 Woodcote stakes, a listed race over 6f

Here we are starting off with a horse who has form behind recent Sandown winner Tiggy Wiggy, recent Yarmouth winner Patience Alexander and a second place at Goodwood, proving a capability of handling an undulating track. That form behind two really highly rated horses looks very good and yet this horse is availiable to back at 10/1 for this 2.05 - Exentricity is the selection here. He handles good and soft ground, has the speed for 5f and lasts the 6f trip, I really think he is overpriced here for the Mick Channon team and he is the selection to take a step up in class with a listed victory at Epsom.

2.40 Coronation Cup, a Group 1 race over 1 and 1/2 miles

This race is all about the lovable and admirable Cirrus Des Aigles for me, and I'm really surprised to see quotes of odds against here for my selection who has lbs in hand of all the others in opposition here. Cirrus has started this season in great form, beating Treve and Olympic Glory on his previous two starts, and rocks up here over a distance he is proven over, on ground he will handle and with his biggest rival (Ruler of the World) taken out of the race. I can't see beyond him here and think that is the rains come you could do worse than a Cirrus/Talent forecast as rain would be against Flintshire, another French raider. Flintshire was highly fancied for the Arc last year but ultimately disappointed and I don't think he would appreciate any soft ground, whereas Talent will need every yard of this trip and could do with the extra emphasis on stamina. If it stays dry take Cirrus to beat Flintshire, if the heavens open put Talent in 2nd spot instead.

3.15 Epsom Dash, a 5 f handicap

Step forward the speedballs as this 5 furlong sprint is the quickest in the world, and that's official! You pays your money you takes your chance in this mad dash for the finish line, and there are plenty you could make a case for without coming close to getting the winner! Smoothtalkinrascal is the selection here, he is a horse from the red hot David O'Meara stable who has the proven speed for this test, acts on good and soft ground and is drawn highly which is helpful on the sprint course at Epsom. 

4.00 Epsom Derby, a Group 1 race over 1 and 1/2 miles and the 2nd Classic for Colts and Fillies of the season

We have already put forward Arod as a selection in the ante-post piece (Ante-Post advice) and will hope the rains stay away for that selection. If they do I really think he has a great chance, however if it gets really wet I would get concerned regarding his chances. If this is the case then Ebanoran from the John Oxx stable could be the answer. He was first past the post in the Derrinstown stud Derby trial, however was disqualified later for drifting and causing interference. Don't let that put you off though, he has a great turn of pace as was seen that day and the drifting may have been the result of inexperience or being in front too soon. However with that run under his belt, and a bigger field in the Derby meaning he should have cover for longer in the race, he will handle any cut in the ground and could spring somewhat of a surprise at decent odds. Lets not forget John Oxx certainly knows how to train a winner of this race with his masterful handling of the wonderful Sea The Stars, and I'm surprised that Ebanoran has gone quietly un-noticed in the build up to the big Middle-Distance Classic especially after being first past the post in a big trial race over in Ireland. Don't let that put you off though, if the rain does come Ebanoran will be a big contender.

 5.25 Investec Stakes, a 6f Handicap

Arctic Feeling is the selection in this closing race despite racing from 2lbs out of the handicap. Fahey, his trainer, has been saying all year that this race has been the target and the visor goes on for the first time tomorrow in the hope that they can eek out the extra improvement from this horse to get him across the finish line first. Arctic Feeling won this race last year off a 2lbs higher mark so really should be capable of going close again if Fahey has him spot on for this race. With Course and Distance form in the book as well as form on soft ground in case the rain comes, the selection in the closing race is Arctic Feeling.

Once again thanks for reading and best of luck!

Epsom Oaks Day

It seems crazy to think after all the build-up to the Investec Derby meeting regarding the weather and ground conditions that we may actually see a bit of firm in the going description but after clerk of the course Andrew Cooper changed the going description to good overnight, and with temperatures of up to 25 degrees in store today, you certainly couldn't rule it out. That won't inconvenience my ante-post selection for the Oaks (Ithimal) and I'm still very hopeful that come 4:10 today we will have bagged the winner of the 2nd fillies classic of the season for blog readers. The supporting card for the big race of the day is also very good and I'll have a look at a few races here.

2.10 1 Mile 2 furlong Handicap

I'm siding with the hugely unexposed sort Air Pilot on his handicap debut here. Trainer Ralph Beckett has a great record at the Epsom venue and he wouldn't be sending Air Pilot out here if he had no sort of a chance. After winning a maiden last time out over a distance 2 furlongs extra than today's racing distance Air Pilot will have stamina for the trip assured, and given the stiff start and finish to the course that could play into his hands as he passes tired horses who have the burden of lumps of weight in the home straight today. At 8/1, with 12 runners giving 3 places to shoot at he can certainly reward e/w support against more exposed rivals with less room for maneuver in the handicap.

2.45 1 mile (and a bit) Group 3

A step up in grade here and we're shooting for the win with Windhoek with the master jockey Keiren Fallon on board. Basically I think he can turn around form with French Navy over a slightly shorter trip and on better ground, while that Goodwood run does provide encouragement that he will handle the Epsom undulations today. Graphic has most of his recent form on soft ground and I think the going may not be exactly to his liking today, whereas the selection has good form on firmer going. Finally Gregorian, the last of the contenders in my opinion and the winner of this race last year, could possibly be in need of the run against race fit rivals and I think Windhoek can continue his upward progression with victory today.

3.20 1 Mile Handicap

Abseil will definitely go off a short priced favorite here on the back of an impressive 2nd at Chester from an awful draw and could really scoot up, with the whispers being that he has a stone in hand of his official mark. However such a hot favorite leaves the market open for something at an e/w price making the frame in a competitive heat and that is the angle I'm going for here with Dance and Dance. Jimmy Fortune rides this one, a previous winner of the race so a holder of that all-important Epsom course and distance form, and the quickening of the ground will certainly play into the selection's hands. As I say he won this Mile Handicap off a 6 lbs higher mark in 2011 so, although possibly not the horse he was back then his run last time out when a good 2nd over the mile trip showed signs that he can still operate at a very good level. Drawn 11, by no means a negative, I think Dance and Dance can make the first 4 home here and reward e/w support.

4.00 Epsom Oaks - Ithimal already advised ante-post (Ante-Post Oaks and Derby)

4.45 7f Listed Race

Parbold is the selection here with Ryan Moore up top for the first time and a hood fitted, always an interesting piece of headgear and one that has shot to prominence in recent times. Parbold has by far the best form on offer in this race, and although disappointing the last twice did run well on his reappearance giving weight away in a handicap at Newmarket so any concerns that he hasn't trained on over the winter can be ignored. A beaten favorite last time out, it could be that 6f is slightly too short for Parbold and a return to his favored 7f, with a top jockey booked, can see him return to his form of 2013 which will be enough to take this race. That is the Spirit, odds on favorite for this race, has been priced up on potential rather than form in the book and if Parbold can return to his best here will reward a gamble at bigger odds than I was expecting given his 2013 exploits.

That's all for Oaks day, thanks for reading!

Middle Distance Glory - One Selection for the Derby and Oaks

We're now less than a week away from the next two classics of the British Flat Racing season, the Oaks and the Derby at the iconic Epsom track, and excitement is building after the traditional 'Breakfast with the Stars' event held on Thursday at the course. This provides a final opportunity for connections to test their horses around the unique undulations and the bend of the 1 and 1/2 mile course as well as a chance to build even more hype around the leading contenders. In this blog I'll put forward one horse I like for the fillies event and the Derby itself in the hope that we can find Classic glory this coming weekend!

The Investec Oaks - 4pm on Friday

The ground looks like having a bit of give in it after the recent unsettled weather that we have seen in England recently and this won't inconvenience my selection, the Godolphin trained filly Ihtimal having won previously on good to soft ground up at Doncaster over a mile. Ihtimal race a really encouraging race in the 1000 Guineas to finish 3rd, staying on strongly at the end over a trip that definitely would have been short of her ideal trip. Ihtimal has good Meydan form over 10f shaping like she will appreciate the step up to the Oaks trip (her breeding also suggests this, as well as suggesting soft ground won't be an issue), so to run so well back over a mile was really good to see and she has been kept under wraps since that run in anticipation of a bold big here. This filly hasn't had loads of publicity in the build up to this race but her trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has come out and said it's all systems go for the Oaks now. Keiren Fallon has been working this horse and he is an excellent jockey around the Epsom Downs course so to have him up is a big boost as well. All in all I think she looks very likely to get the trip, ground will be fine and she could have a master jockey on board around this course - definitely set to go for the Oaks 8/1 is a fair e/w price.

The Investec Derby - 4pm on Saturday

If you had said a year ago my fancy for the Derby would be a Peter Chapple-Hyam trained, Qatar racing club owned colt then there would be only one guess as to who I was keen on. However fast forward one year  and Hydrogen has only had one appearance, being soundly beaten in a Newmarket maiden and my fancy is actually Arod under the same owner-trainer combo. Arod's form last time out, a staying on second place in the Dante stakes behind the Great Gatsby, has been franked today (Sunday) as the victor that day went on to win the French Derby and the Dante is a solid trial for the big classic in June, having produced recent winner Workforce only a few years back. One slight concern is that Arod would prefer the ground to dry out slightly if he is to line up on Saturday but he does have form on good to soft going so won't require a total drought to take his place. Arod was staying on well over the 10f Dante trip which is encouraging for the 12f Derby trip and his trainer knows what it takes to win the middle-distance classic having been victorious in this race twice before so should have Arod trained spot on to tackle the step up. At 20/1 I think Arod has been overlooked in favour of the more fancy entries from the Gosden, O'Brien and Godolphin entries (Arod beat True Story at York yet True Story is 10/1 in places??) and I don't see his price coming in too much with those more attractive stables generating loads of publicity in the run up to the big race. Hold off, see what the weather does, and get involved if the rain stays away in the run up to Saturday. Or, if you believe Countryfile ( forecast for pre-Derby week: Monday showery; Tuesday same; Wed heavy rain; Thu dry; Friday dry.) get involved now as with that weather surely it will be good to soft ground at worst and this would surely see Arod allowed to take his chance.


Once again thanks for reading!