Glorious Goodwood - Stewards Cup Day

And onto the fifth day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting we go. Unfortunately, if you've not had too much luck so far it doesn't get any easier now with some fiendishly difficult handicaps on the last day of the Festival but with that we do get some big prices so lets have a look at the action on Saturday.

Who will emulate Magical Memory and take the Stewards Cup this year?

We start off with the Consolation Race For The Qatar Stewards' Cup, a handicap over 5 furlongs for horses that didn't make the cut in the big one on Saturday. And my pick here is Gamesome from the Paul Midgley stable. Now, Gamesome is draw in a stall of 26, but I've looked back and while the previous two years have seen low drawn winners, when the ground has been good we've had winners come from stalls 27 and 22 in the last 7 years, so draw 26 may not be a huge negative. Now, Gamesome has come 2nd the last twice but the horses he was 2nd to went on to fight out a red-hot sprint handicap at Ascot recently so the form looks really strong. He races here off that exact same mark, so I reckon he could well be on a decent rating, and this step up to 6 furlongs is no negative either as he has winning form at the distance. Gamesome goes on a variety of ground and he is my horse to go to war with in the opener of Goodwood's final day.

Moving on to race 2 where we have a 3 year old handicap in which I'm keen on the chances of Knights Table. This horse has won his last three races and has thus gone up in the handicap, but the way he won at Ripon the last day was definitely not done in the style of a horse who is in the grip of the handicapper. Knights Table came from the rear of the field that day, not the easiest thing to do at Ripon (a front runners track) and won easily, going away towards the line. He is again up in the weights but he was very impressive that day and I like his chances of getting a 4 timer here.

The Nassau stakes looks an absolute point and shoot race for super filly Minding so we will leave that one alone and instead plough onto the big race of the day in terms of betting, the Stewards Cup.

The first horse I want here comes from the head of the market in Toofi. I think this horse is a ticking timebomb for the Robert Cowell yard, a master trainer of sprinters. Neither of his starts this year have done him justice at all, including when four lengths eighth of 28 to his stablemate Outback Traveller in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out. Toofi was punted before that race, so is clearly well thought of, but in the race he was simply set to much to do coming from last in the stand-side group. He did really well to even finish where he did that day, but we can benefit here as he has actually been dropped a pound for that effort. Drawn high enough in 23, but 2 years ago the winner came from 22 and the year before that from 26, Toofi is the first selection for this one.

And for a second horse here I want to be with one drawn nice and low in stall three in Jamesie for David Marnane and Patt Dobbs. Jamesie has been to Goodwood for this race before, finishing a really good 6th place, was quite a young horse then and could have been phased by the huge handicap field that day. Now, with much more experience under his belt, and some proven class in the book (beating the likes of Gordon Lord Bryon a few years back), in a lovely low draw I think Jamesie could well secure a place in this super competitive race. In a big handicap like this I really like an experienced horse who will just get on with it and in Jamesie I hope we have that.

The final selection from a wonderful week at Goodwood comes in the closing apprentice race, where I will put up Freight Train for the Mark Johnston team who have enjoyed a fruitful week at Goodwood. And Mark has gone out of his way to book top apprentice rider, and one with plenty of experience of winning big handicap races, in Louis Steward. Freight Train won 2 runs ago before posting a slightly disappointing effort when upped to 10 furlongs at Ripon the last day. His stamina just faded in the final furlong of that race, having led and looked in with a chance 2 out, so this step back down in trip looks sure to suit. Having a top jockey in these type of races is always important and we have that, so with a nice low draw I'm hoping Freight Train can end the Goodwood festival on a high.

Many thanks for reading and best of luck with your bets.

Goodwood Selections - It's an each way day!

2.00 Gamesome e/w
2.35 Knights Table e/w
3.10 Minding Win
3.45 Toofi e/w & Jamesie e/w
6.00 Freight Train e/w

The Penultimate Day of Glorious Goodwood

Will we see super impressive 2 year old Emotionless bounce back on Friday?

It's onto the penultimate day of the Glorious Goodwood festival and another decent day of action.  Day three was frustrating with two selections second and one third, close but no cigar. We open the card with a competitive looking group three event in which you could make the case for a number of these. Scottish comes here off the back of an impressive win last time out, and he is the highest rated horse in the field. You could argue, however, that that tag should belong to King's Fete, Sir Michael Stoute's charge who missed the whole of 2015 and then was very unlucky to only finish third in a hot handicap, a neck behind Elite Army receiving weight as well, albeit just 1 pound. He has run well at Goodwood before, finishing 2nd over C&D in 2014, so the track should pose no problems and with the services of Ryan Moore on top I expect King's Fete to go very close in the opener of day 4.

We then move on to a tremendously interesting mile race, where super impressive 2 year old Emotionless rocks up after a reappearance run in the St James' Palace stakes at Ascot the last day. He is clearly still really well thought of at home to be given such a still task on reappearance, however I remember that day that connections were very keen to stress the horse would come on for the run. Indeed, Cymric finished well ahead of Emotionless that day and I suppose at the prices Emotionless is too short. He was such a special 2 year old however that I'm going to hope that Charlie Appleby has managed to get plenty of work into him since then, and with first time headgear also on a small win bet on Emotionless is the play here. 

I'm going to take a watching brief today with regards to the future with the Hugo Palmer trained They Seek Him Here. Now, after all I've said about Emotionless needing his reappearance run i'm weighing in with another long time absentee, a horse who has been off the track almost a year. However, this horse is an absolutely gorgeous horse.He is bred to be a much better three-year-old than two-year-old, so I am more than hopeful that he will have trained on. It is a bit concerning to have not seen him so far this year, but Hugo is a top trainer and a patient one and this horse could well develop into a St Leger horse by the end of the season. Even if you don't back a horse in this race, watch the run of They Seek Him Here and consider him for future assignments, with this run under his belt.

If we were hoping things became a little easier from there on in, well sadly they don't! The Betfred mile is a difficult looking race, the market made by Franklin D, ridden by Ryan Moore, who has secured the plum inside draw. However the price is now plenty skinny enough at 7/2, even allowing for how impressive he was last time out, as we've seen already this week luck in running is vital at this track. Instead I'm going for the more attractively priced Boomshackerlacker at 20/1, a horse who has good form over 7 furlongs and a mile, so will have tactical speed if required to get out of a pocket. George Baker had the winner of this race the last year so knows what is required to win this and Boomshackerlacker hasn't done badly with the draw, a berth is stall 8 decent enough. He runs off a mark of 100, 3 lbs higher than his win last time out, but I like a horse in form for these races and he looks a solid e/w bet.

In the 5 furlong sprint, the King George Stakes, I'm keen on Cotai Glory who will very much appreciate the return to 5 furlongs here having been tried over 6 furlongs the last day. All his best form is over the 5 furlong trip, he has finished 2nd twice in some really hot spring races this season, and George Baker gets on really well with him. Cotai Glory is very much my horse for the King George sprint, but Jungle Cat is also worthy of a mention. He too has run some very nice races this season and did actually win over in Meydan in January. Again unsuited I feel by the step up to 6 furlongs last time out, coming back to 5 furlongs will see him in much better light and if allowed two against the field Jungle Cat would be the 2nd selection.

I'll be taking a watching brief in the next two races on the card and come back otu of the shadows in time for the 5.30, the closing race on the card over 1 mile 3 furlongs. Here I want to be with Diamond Geyser for Luca Cumani, a dab hand at winning handicap races with progressive three year olds. This horse was beaten into 2nd the last day by a well handicapped horse I feel, and prior to that he had won his maiden over 12 furlongs. He steps back in trip here but I think his progressive profile will mean he could still be ahead of his mark and I'll side with Diamond Geyser in the closer.

Many thanks for reading and I'll be back for Saturday at Goodwood, home of the Stewards Cup.

Still going - Goodwood day 3

WE move on to day 3 of Glorious Goodwood, and even if the weather is not quite as lovely as many punters were hoping for the show must go on regardless of a bit of rain. And we kick off the card with a three year old handicap where I am keen on the chances of Roger Charlton's High Shields. A winner here 2 starts ago in taking manner, value for more than the winning margin, High Shields was then stepped up in trip at Ascot the last day and perhaps found that trip a touch too far. However, he still ran well to take 4th, only losing third late on when stamina ran out, and back down to 10 furlongs, with Dettori booked for the ride, I am hoping High Shields can continue his progression.

A mention must also go to Dwight D in the opener race. Very few horses managed to overcome a slow start to win during the July Festival and Dwight D wasn't one of them. In fact he had an awful start and every worse luck in running but still managed to get placed in the race which is a decent effort. If things had worked out a little better he could have perhaps even won, although that might be stretching things, but anyhow he could still be on a very workable mark if things go a bit better at the start and in running here. Connections had deemed him worthy of a race in a classic trial earlier in the season so think a bit of him and as I say there could be room for manoeuvre off his current rating.

We then move on to the Richmond stakes, a two year old race that looks pretty hot to me, despite the small field size. And the one I'm keen on here receives 3 lbs from Mehmas, the horse with the most experience to date, and we saw on Tuesday with War Decree how useful receiving weight can be as he won the 2 year old race that day very impressively. Blue Point is my fancy here. He made a winning debut at Nottingham and that form has since been advertised with winners coming out of it . Then next time up he routed the field at Doncaster in a novice stakes, literally winning as he liked by half the track. The youngster could not be in better hands as he is ridden out most days by Derby-winning jockey Willie Ryan and this race looks like it has been the target all along given that progressive race planning. I think he could be a very special horse and fancy him to take this race.

The big race of the day is off at 3.10 and it's the Goodwood Cup, a staying race over 2 miles, and I'm going for the older generation here in the shape of Sheikhzayedroad as an e/w betA lot of the field have a great deal of soft and heavy ground form to their names and I'm unsure if this firmer surface will suit them, where as Sheikhzayedroad has run well at Goodwood and on good and firmer going in the past. It's unlikely he has a great deal of improvement to come off his mark, hence I think there is every chance he will find one too good, but at the prices I really quite like him as an each way bet in the race. He stays, won't mind the ground, acts on the course and ticking those boxed whereas you couldn't say the same for certain with a lot of the other runners, makes Sheikhzayedroad an each way bet for me.

In the 4.20 I'm keen to side with Amabilis, a once raced horse from the Ralph Beckett yard who seems to have his string in fine order recently. Fran Berry takes the ride here and reading his column on Sportinglife he mentions that this race has been the long term plan for this filly. Her debut run at Newmarket was very encouraging, she was a touch keen early but was running on really well in the latter stages of the race and can be expected to come on a bundle for that experience. This trip looks ideal and I think she can make use of a decent enough draw in 6 to shed her maiden tag.

Glorious Goodwood Day 2

Frankel; the world's greatest ever racehorse triumphed in the Sussex Stakes on day 2 in 2012

On day 1 the blog didn't do too well, lets be honest. We had quite a range; fortunately we did have a winner with Dutch Connection coming in, we had a non-runner (the well fancied Harry Angel), a shocking ride on Snoano, Hakeem who ran as his price of 40/1 suggested and then a disappointment in Fun Mac. I was not at all pleased with the ride given to Snoano, held up despite coming down in trip and then making his move when any possible chance of winning had long gone. But onwards and hopefully upwards, day 2 and the big race of the meeting await.


We open day 2 with a long race. Really long. 2 miles 5 furlongs! This unique test is one the National Hunt trainers like to target, for example Nigel TD won it last year, and I fancy the yard of Alan King to supply the winner this year in Oceane. This horse got back to winning ways at Ascot last time out, loves a good, firm surface and considering Alan King would surely have other darts to fire at these longer races it seems significant he sends Oceane here. I'm hoping that Alan thinks the step up in trip will bring about more improvement, and encouragingly the jockey rides at a 20% strike race at Goodwood.

Next up is the the Gordon Stakes, the 2.35 on the card, and Derby disappointment Uylsses is my fancy. Sir Michael Stoute had a few winners the weekend just gone and is going along nicely, and after a rapid step up in grade from winning a maiden to competing in the Derby he has given Uylsses a bit of a break since. The masterful trainer usually brings his horses along steadily, and it was significant that Uylsses was deemed worthy of a Derby spot but that just shows the regard in which he holds the horse. Now he has had a bit of time off, a bit of time to mature and the experience of the Derby under his belt I think we could see the horse Sir Michael sees at home here.

The big race of the day is the Sussex Stakes, a rematch of the St James Stakes at Ascot which Galileo Gold won and The Gurka was deemed an unlucky loser, and that race has had a huge bearing on the market for this one. Galileo Gold is around 2/1, The Gurkha slight fav at 15/8, with Irish Guineas winner Awtaad right out at 6/1. And it's Hugo Palmers Galileo Gold that I fancy for this one. The horse has previously won around Goodwood and also has winning form over 7 furlongs, so is definitely blessed with a bit of pace which will be ideal at this course over a mile. Hugo himself is in fine form at the moment and Galileo Gold, on good, fast racing ground, is taken to confirm Ascot form at the prices.

In the Molecomb stakes I'm so unbelievably keen on Global Applause. I was interested to read Ryan Moore say in his Betfair column that the draw is important but so is running style. Low draw for the speedy types, higher draw is ok for the hold up horses. And make no mistake, Global Applause is speedy, hence his draw in stall 1 is absolutely brilliant. Drawn on the wrong side at Ascot and didn't seem in love with the track the last day, prior to that he was unbeaten over 5 furlongs (his only loss came when stepped up to 6). Global Applause is all speed, should love this fast 5 and rates as my bet of the day.

And that'll do me until the last race on the card, a 7 furlong handicap, where I'm going for the three year old Twin Sails for Dean Ivory. He was a useful enough juvenile but I had been concerned that he hadn't trained on after disappointing in every run this season. However, last time out in first time blinkers he ran his best race of the season to finish a really narrow 2nd, proving that some ability still remains. If Twin Sails can kick on from that run now, with a lovely draw in stall 3, he could be on a nice mark and is worth a go in the finale of day 2.

Goodwood; day 1 of the most Gorgeous festival around

There's a summer treat in store this week as both Goodwood and Galway decide to host their annual festival weeks of moderate racing on the same week, giving us more average handicaps, plot horses and jockey bans than you can shake a stick at!

I'll stop with the negativity there though because these are both tremendously fun and entertaining festivals, especially for Dermot Weld who is already engraving his name on the leading trainer trophy at Galway, having won it the last 30 years! If you can find a horse who acts on either track this is a huge bonus, as is having a jockey who knows what it takes to win on either the unique Goodwood undulations or the hustle and bustle of Galway. And trainers such as Mark Johnston and Dermot Weld need opposing at your peril. 

This blog will be focusing more on Goodwood this week, but if a horse at Galway catches my eye I'll certainly mention it. I'm just conscious that Galway is absolutely riddled with plot horses and have been caught out more times than I dare remember recently, so I now tread with much more caution.

Tuesday at Goodwood

It really is gorgeous!

We start off with a handicap over 10 furlongs at Glorious Goodwood where I'm siding with Snoano after a good 2nd last time out at Ripon over further. Prior to that he finished fourth in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock, a hot handicap, but he has previously been successful in the Queen Mother's Cup over a mile and a half at York in lesser company. Tim Easterby's charge may have found his stamina ebbing away late on at Haydock; the softer ground could have done for him after travelling strongly and being the last horse off the bridle. I marked him down as one worth keeping on the right side on a sounder surface over this distance or slightly shorter and dropped in trip on decent ground here think he is an interesting e/w bet as I think the trip also found him out at Ripon at the business end of the race.

In the Vintage Stakes, the big 2 year old race on day 1, Boynton is the one to beat despite the two-year-old having to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his win in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July Festival. He had War Decree back in 2nd there, despite War Decree being absolutely smashed in the betting, and it could be that those 2 are the ones to fight out the finish. However, I'm willing to forgive Hakeem one bad run in Ireland the last day and bet him e/w at a tasty looking 33/1. Hannon reports him to have put weight back on since then and has been working much better than before that race as well which is encouraging. He acts on a variety of ground, has had the experience of three runs, and also a decent enough draw in 5. I think he is certainly overpriced anyway.

The big race of day 1 is the Lennox stakes. Dutch Connection was 2nd here last year in this race, finding only Toormore too good that day. No doubt that the 7 furlong trip around this unique track suit this horse down to the ground and he is also ridden by a jockey in James McDonald who is probably the jockey in form in England at the moment. Dutch Connection has been running well all season over a mile, which is not his trip, and this return to 7f will really suit. Buckstay could run well at a price on his step up from handicap company but for a solid outright win bet Dutch Connection is the one in the Lennox Stakes.

Goodwood has it's fair share of staying races and on day 1 we have the Summer Stakes over 1 mile 6 furlongs in which I quite like Fun Mac from the Hughie Morrison yard. The yard are going pretty well of late and both trainer and jockey have had winners here. Fun Mac has himself finished 2nd over this course over this distance, is only up 1 lbs from that race and this firmer ground should be more ideal for him. Only 5 years old, he should still have improvement to come for a stayer and I'd be hopeful he can hit the frame.

Finally on day 1 I want to be with a trainer in red hot form in Clive Cox in the 4.55, a maiden over 6 furlongs, where Harry Angel sets the undoubted standard to aim at in the race after just being denied at Ascot first time up. He was running on really well that day, just failing to catch a 2nd time up Godolphin horse, and the step up in trip should also suit. After riding a big race winner in France at the weekend, Adam Kirby will be full of confidence and Harry Angel can go one better here.

Thanks for reading and I'll be back on Wednesday

The final bet-a-day for Euro 2016

Right. After 22 days we are onto a figure of -8.17 units, and heading into the final of Euro 2016 at least I know what I have to shoot for to secure a profit for the tournament. And onto the final we go.

Day 23 - Portugal vs France

Well, pre tournament France were the favourites to lift the trophy but Portugal were quite an un-fancied 20/1 or thereabouts poke. Despite winning just the 1 game in 90 minutes, the Portuguese team, captained by C.Ronaldo, or CR7 as he is more commonly known, have made it through the easier side of the draw and take their place alongside the host nation France. And it is the host nation I fully expect to win this game.

France were very impressive in the 2nd half of the Germany game in their semi-final, Antoine Griezmann thriving in a more central role as the French defeated Germany 2-0. Portugal also won their game against Wales 2-0, with talisman Ronaldo scoring with a towering header, but I cannot see them having enough to overcome France with a nation behind them.

But because I need a big priced winner to finish in profit I'm going to put up a correct score bet. As I say I've been very impressed with France recently in attack, Griezmann moving more central has been key to that in my opinion, and I think they will score a few here. However, I don't want to rule out a Ronaldo free kick or something, even after 50-odd consecutive failed attempts, therefore the bet here is France 3-1 Portugal at a whopping 22/1.

France 3-1 Portugal 22/1

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 22

Day 22 - France vs Germany

The French will come into this semi-final game with confidence sky high. They absolutely destroyed Iceland, getting a load of goals in the process, and they really do have the Nation behind them. Giroud, Griezmann,, Pogba and Payet all scored and they must believe they can score again.
Germany overcame Italy on penalties in the quarter-finals, no mean feat, but they suffered a fair few injuries in the process. Gomes is out for the tournament and Khedira and Schweinsteiger are doubts for this game, all blows Low could do without in this big semi final clash against the home nation.

France, while they are incredible in attack, are also vulnerable defensively; Iceland scored against them, Ireland did in the game before that and the Germans will be confident they can breach Les Bleus defence. However, having already scored 11 goals this tournament, France will be confident they can get on the scoresheet and this is where I see the bet coming.

With the attacking talent both teams possess and this being the last knockout game before the final both teams will be going at it. And when one team bags, the other will have to attack even more, which has already seen both teams score in all 4 quarter final games. In this game I'm going for over 3.5 goals at 11/4. Whilst over 2.5 is obviously a safer option the blog is desperately clawing it's way towards overall profit, or more likely digging a bigger hole, but with the attacking talent on show I'm hoping for a seriously entertaining game

Day 22 - Over 3.5 goals 11/4

One bet a day for Euro 2016 - Day 21

Unbelievable. Just was we saw France do what England couldn't and tear Iceland to shreds Griezmann did the business and got himself onto the score sheet, providing us with another winner, this one at 17/10. That takes the blog onto -6.17 and if I can have a few bigger winners we might even reach profit for the tournament. Na, I doubt it as well but we may as well dream...


Day 21 - Portugal vs Wales

Well, I must admit before the tournament I did not have Wales down as semi-finalists. However, fair play to Chris Coleman and his team as they have shown what a good morale, team spirit and a canny bit of talent can do with hard work and determination. After they demolished Belgium in the quarter finals they face a Portuguese side yet to win a game in 90 minutes. And I really like the Welsh's chances of progression to the Euro 2016 final here.

The thing is Aaron Ramsey is ruled out, as is Ben Davies, through suspension and they are two massive losses to this team. Ramsey has arguably been one of the players of the tournament and whoever replaces him will have huge shoes to fill; probably either Andy King or Jonny Williams. Williams was actually pretty decent when coming off the bench against Northern Ireland 2 games ago. However, what ever happens its safe to say this will be billed as Ronaldo vs Bale. And if this is actually the case, Wales win as Bale has been very good so far, Ronaldo far less so. But we all know football is a team game...

And this is why I love the Welsh. You just have to see the celebrations after their win over Belgium to see just how good their team-spirit is, how they work for each other and how they are a closely knit side. They are improving every match, and against Belgium they were sensational. I think at 10/3 for the win in 90 minutes they are a huge price and they are the bet of day 21

Wales to win 10/3