Well with National Hunt fixtures dropping by the wayside as quickly as the rain drops from the sky at the moment there isn't much of interest going on this mid-week. However this does give us time to look forward to the weekend's racing with a few entries published today and I'll just touch on a couple from Sandown here.
The Esher venue plays host to the Betfred Contenders Hurdle which could see a clash between Willie Mullin's Champion Hurdle unknown Un De Sceaux and Jeremy Scott's stable star Melodic Rendezvous. This will be the highest class race Un De Sceaux has contested so far after blasting away rivals from the front in small fields over in Ireland and it will be interesting to see if he can do the same here. If he does succeed in the same impressive manner as in Ireland then he will definitely be a strong contender come March as Melodic Rendezvous will be getting his absolute ideal ground conditions here. Scott's horse comes here off the back of an impressive victory over the Nicholls trained Ptit Zig at Haydock last time out and would really need to be winning here to allow connections to harbour thoughts of a Champion Hurdle push. Melodic Rendezvous certainly won't have ground conditions as much to his liking in March so you would think if he can't win here then he doesn't really have a chance at Cheltenham. However if Un De Sceaux can stay in front in his usual manner then on one hand Willie Mullin's hand in the Champion Hurdle will be strengthened even more. However whether his stable stay Hurricane Fly will really appreciate a horse from the same stable setting a breakneck pace in the race is another matter completely and because of this there is a chance Mullins may steer Un De Sceaux away from Cheltenham as he does appear to have only one way of racing and that is from the front at a frantic pace!
Oscar Whiskey is the stand-out entry in the Scilly Islands Chase at the same venue, although there isn't much else in this line-up of the class of Nicky Henderson's charge. Oscar Whiskey has been racing and beating the likes of Taquin Du Seuil and Wonderful Charm so far this season so it would be nice to see him win well here, especially with concerns over a virus at the Henderson camp which Nicky has been forced to comment on and calm any panic around this. He said that he had been getting about 80% of tracheal washes come back clean rather than the usual 95%, still enough to cause concern for punters. With the King yard also suffering from a virus and Emma Lavelle, Rebecca Curtis and Jonjo O'Neil all undergoing strangely quiet periods there must be quite a lot of concern about the wellbeing of English-trained horses going towards the festival. Horses get viruses and bring them back to their yards at race meetings so this clearly puts the vast majority of English yards at risk at the moment and if this continues before March I would start to become seriously wary of where the horse I was backing at Cheltenham was being trained. However at the moment this is just going a bit over the top regarding the situation so I'll wait a month or so until we get further into February and then re-assess the situation.
You can be certain that the ground at Sandown will be very testing at the weekend so bear that in mind while looking towards the weekend. I think there is even the chance that the meeting could be washed away again but fingers-crossed that we can beat the weather for once this week!
Tuesday 28 January 2014
Sunday 26 January 2014
Weekend review from Leopardstown, Cheltenham and Doncaster
Well another weekend packed full of National Hunt action has come to an end and a few Cheltenham clues have emerged again. I've already spoken in a previous blog about the comeback of Big Bucks so I won't touch on that again today apart from to say Paul Nicholls has come out and tweeted the following
Onto some thoughts on some of the other races. First of all the Argento Chase. This was in the end a slightly disappointing race, I don't think anyone sees the Giant Bolster, as admirable a horse as he is, as a realistic Gold Cup contender so the fact that he could dispatch with Rocky Creek and my fancy Harry Topper (who actually jumped a bit better fortunately) on Saturday certainly puts the knockers on their chances in that race. I believe Rocky Creek could be a Grand National horse in time, Nicholls has said he will be given an entry in this years race, and The Giant Bolster will again line up at Prestbury park in March with the hope of placing but that will be about it for horses from this race for me.Champion Court as predicted didn't stay and may be of slightly more interest in something like the Ryanair, especially is that race cuts up with current favourite Cue Card more likely to go for the Gold Cup. The stable were so bullish about this horse at the start of the season before his Paddy Power disappointment and I fancy there must be a race in him but back down in trip.
The way Red Sherlock battled against the Mullins raider Rathvinden was very likable and he is general 2nd favourite behind another Mullins novice Faugheen for the Neptune in March. He is also entered in the shorter Supreme hurdle on the opening day but the way he stayed on in this race would make him of interest come March in the longer of the two races. Mullins would have a good idea now though of where Faugheen stands with Red Sherlock and any stable confidence would have to be noted.
Annie Power was again impressive up at Doncaster, although with Cockney Sparrow tipping up at the 2nd last she was allowed to power home unchallenged and this race didn't really tell us that much apart from that she doesn't mind travelling and she is well in herself. However it was interesting to note Ruby said she got a bit worked up with all the noise and hustle and bustle of the races which would have to be a slight concern come March. More of a concern for punters though is where she will end up, making any ante-post bets involving this mare a tricky business. After the race Ruby said
There were also some useful triumph hurdle sorts out at Cheltenham in the opener with Le Rocher an impressive winner and now installed at around the 10/1 mark for glory on the final day of the festival. However one that caught my eye on Friday at Doncaster for the Triumph was Pearl Castle.John Quinn certainly knows the time of day when it comes to training a triumph hurdle winner and this one showed himself in a far better light given better ground than on his hurdling debut so, with the ground hopefully good in March, could be a lively outsider at 25/1. Has a rating of 87 on the flat compared to Our Conor rated 85 and Countrywide flame 72 before his Triumph so on flat ability looks like being of the required standard and put in a decent round of hurdling the other day to compliment that. Certainly at 25/1 he could be a nice e/w shout at this stage.
Over in Ireland on Sunday Trifolium produced a very impressive round of jumping to dispatch long-time pace setter Defy Logic and staying-on Felix Yonder to win the Irish Arkle. Bryan Cooper picked correctly when choosing between the Gigginstown runners and gave Trifolium a very nice ride. AP set a pretty decent pace on Defy Logic but he couldn't last home (was later found to have burst a blood-vessel) and the winner was trimmed from 25/1 into 8/1 after that performance. Willie Mullins could now be tempted to reverse plans for Champagne Fever after it initially looked like he may have been sent over the longer tript of the JLT judging on his entry in the J.P. Moriarty chase. This race also saw the likes of Rock on Ruby and Dodging Bullets trimmed in as Defy Logic, Felix Yonger and Mozoltov drifted out after disappointing runs. You'd also be wary after the news of the burst blood vessel for Defy Logic as once it happens once it is more likely to happen again which obviously is not very helpful.
Finally the big race of the weekend for most, the Irish Champion Hurdle. Once again Captain Cee Bee set the pace and lead the field into the home straight. Over the final flight Our Conor produced a beautiful jump but Hurricane Fly really showed all the battling qualities you would expect from a 19-time Group 1 winner to just about overcome the young pretender. This race again turned into a sprint which would have suited the Fly but you really cannot take anything away from the reigning Champion Hurdler as he didn't land well over the final flight and still got up to win. Make no mistake about it though Our Conor really did serve it up to the Fly, with Jezki the disappointing horse of the race and you would think that makes McCoy's choice of mount come March a bit easier. On a personal point of view I was very pleased with that race. I mentioned in yesterday's preview of the race that I fancied the Fly to win today but I would be on Our Conor come March and today I was very encouraged from what I saw. I think a stronger run race, the galloping Cheltenham track and another run under his belt will favour Our Conor over the Fly and considering how well Danny Mullins got his mount today during a race which would have suited the Fly more. Today the Fly had to give Our Coner 2lbs and come March they will be off level weights but I still fancy Dessie Hughes' charge to give us a new Champion Hurdler.
Thats all for this weekend, thanks for reading!
This is obvious great news for all jumps fans and fantastic that we will see Big Bucks lining up on the 13th March in a big to defend his crown.Big Bucks fine this morning. Eat up last eve & this morn and legs cold. All other runners fine. Bring on march 13th. # World Hurdle
Onto some thoughts on some of the other races. First of all the Argento Chase. This was in the end a slightly disappointing race, I don't think anyone sees the Giant Bolster, as admirable a horse as he is, as a realistic Gold Cup contender so the fact that he could dispatch with Rocky Creek and my fancy Harry Topper (who actually jumped a bit better fortunately) on Saturday certainly puts the knockers on their chances in that race. I believe Rocky Creek could be a Grand National horse in time, Nicholls has said he will be given an entry in this years race, and The Giant Bolster will again line up at Prestbury park in March with the hope of placing but that will be about it for horses from this race for me.Champion Court as predicted didn't stay and may be of slightly more interest in something like the Ryanair, especially is that race cuts up with current favourite Cue Card more likely to go for the Gold Cup. The stable were so bullish about this horse at the start of the season before his Paddy Power disappointment and I fancy there must be a race in him but back down in trip.
The way Red Sherlock battled against the Mullins raider Rathvinden was very likable and he is general 2nd favourite behind another Mullins novice Faugheen for the Neptune in March. He is also entered in the shorter Supreme hurdle on the opening day but the way he stayed on in this race would make him of interest come March in the longer of the two races. Mullins would have a good idea now though of where Faugheen stands with Red Sherlock and any stable confidence would have to be noted.
Annie Power was again impressive up at Doncaster, although with Cockney Sparrow tipping up at the 2nd last she was allowed to power home unchallenged and this race didn't really tell us that much apart from that she doesn't mind travelling and she is well in herself. However it was interesting to note Ruby said she got a bit worked up with all the noise and hustle and bustle of the races which would have to be a slight concern come March. More of a concern for punters though is where she will end up, making any ante-post bets involving this mare a tricky business. After the race Ruby said
"If she's fit, sound healthy and well, the race (at Cheltenham) will pick itself. Getting there would be the big thing in my eyes."Which doesn't help us punters too much!
There were also some useful triumph hurdle sorts out at Cheltenham in the opener with Le Rocher an impressive winner and now installed at around the 10/1 mark for glory on the final day of the festival. However one that caught my eye on Friday at Doncaster for the Triumph was Pearl Castle.John Quinn certainly knows the time of day when it comes to training a triumph hurdle winner and this one showed himself in a far better light given better ground than on his hurdling debut so, with the ground hopefully good in March, could be a lively outsider at 25/1. Has a rating of 87 on the flat compared to Our Conor rated 85 and Countrywide flame 72 before his Triumph so on flat ability looks like being of the required standard and put in a decent round of hurdling the other day to compliment that. Certainly at 25/1 he could be a nice e/w shout at this stage.
Over in Ireland on Sunday Trifolium produced a very impressive round of jumping to dispatch long-time pace setter Defy Logic and staying-on Felix Yonder to win the Irish Arkle. Bryan Cooper picked correctly when choosing between the Gigginstown runners and gave Trifolium a very nice ride. AP set a pretty decent pace on Defy Logic but he couldn't last home (was later found to have burst a blood-vessel) and the winner was trimmed from 25/1 into 8/1 after that performance. Willie Mullins could now be tempted to reverse plans for Champagne Fever after it initially looked like he may have been sent over the longer tript of the JLT judging on his entry in the J.P. Moriarty chase. This race also saw the likes of Rock on Ruby and Dodging Bullets trimmed in as Defy Logic, Felix Yonger and Mozoltov drifted out after disappointing runs. You'd also be wary after the news of the burst blood vessel for Defy Logic as once it happens once it is more likely to happen again which obviously is not very helpful.
Finally the big race of the weekend for most, the Irish Champion Hurdle. Once again Captain Cee Bee set the pace and lead the field into the home straight. Over the final flight Our Conor produced a beautiful jump but Hurricane Fly really showed all the battling qualities you would expect from a 19-time Group 1 winner to just about overcome the young pretender. This race again turned into a sprint which would have suited the Fly but you really cannot take anything away from the reigning Champion Hurdler as he didn't land well over the final flight and still got up to win. Make no mistake about it though Our Conor really did serve it up to the Fly, with Jezki the disappointing horse of the race and you would think that makes McCoy's choice of mount come March a bit easier. On a personal point of view I was very pleased with that race. I mentioned in yesterday's preview of the race that I fancied the Fly to win today but I would be on Our Conor come March and today I was very encouraged from what I saw. I think a stronger run race, the galloping Cheltenham track and another run under his belt will favour Our Conor over the Fly and considering how well Danny Mullins got his mount today during a race which would have suited the Fly more. Today the Fly had to give Our Coner 2lbs and come March they will be off level weights but I still fancy Dessie Hughes' charge to give us a new Champion Hurdler.
Thats all for this weekend, thanks for reading!
Saturday 25 January 2014
Irish Champion Hurdle
4 runners go head to head at Leopardstown on Sunday with the Irish Champion Hurdle the prize, although most people watching this race will actually have more than half a mind on the English equivalent at Cheltenham in just over 6 weeks time. While Captain Cee Bee won't be being prepared with such lofty targets in mind the other three contenders tomorrow all have realistic chances of landing the Championship race of the Tuesday at the festival.
Hurricane Fly leads the way as favourite for both tomorrow and the March race in mind. He is the reigning champion, world record holder for number of grade 1 wins and apple of Ruby Walsh's eye. The sharp track of Leopardstown will suit the Fly down to a tee, he has speed none of the rest of this field have being an ex-Flat horse rated in the 90's. Compare this to Jezki, who was a bumper horse and Our Conor, rated 60-70 on the flat, and you can see why this course should play into Hurricane Fly's hands. He had the beating of this field over this Course and Distance over the Christmas period and his trainer, the Irish Champion trainer Willie Mullins, expects the Fly to actually come on for that run. Bearing all this in mind the Fly should hose up no?
Well the bookies have him priced up at 4/7 for tomorrow and I wouldn't really want to lay the Fly even at that price. They race tomorrow over the inner-most track, it will be the sharpest, speediest course possible and with no guaranteed pace in the race (even though Captain Cee Bee went out in front at Christmas the rest of the field were hardly hot on his tail, taking there time to come past him and blasting him away when they eventually did.) this could develop into a sprint, which would suit the Fly as well. There are arguments saying Jezki and Our Conor will come on for their Christmas exertions as well. Jezki didn't get the clearest of runs, McCoy got pegged in by Our Conor and had to check Jezki in his run, while Our Conor was effectively having his first outing of the season having been laid low by injury after his pipe-opener on the flat. However I think the track and pace in the race will not put enough emphasis on stamina for either of these horses tomorrow and the Fly looks by far the most likely winner of the Irish Champion Hurdle.
However I'm not quite finished there. Whilst I expect the Fly to win tomorrow I don't actually expect him to win the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle. He has never run to his peak over this side of the Irish sea, which seems strange when he has won the race twice. I don't know what it is, the track may not suit him as much, he may not enjoy the travelling, perhaps he prefers the refreshments available in Ireland. In previous years this has not always mattered and Hurricane Fly has been able to win regardless. Mind you this years renewal of the race looks the strongest for many a year with My Tent or Yours and the New One expected to really put it down to the reigning champ in addition to the rivals he will race tomorrow. With Cheltenham in mind I am hoping for another encouraging run from Our Conor tomorrow before he comes over the Irish Sea on March. This horse's victory in last years Triumph Hurdle is unforgettable, the way he routed that field by 14 odd lengths was incredible and he clearly is a horse who loves the galloping undulations of Cheltenham. This horse wants the emphasis on stamina more than speed and he should get that at Cheltenham especially if perennial front runner Un De Sceaux lines up. With this in mind, and his early season setback which may mean he may still slightly need tomorrows run, I expect Our Conor to lose to the Fly tomorrow but as long as he doesn't bomb out completely I'll hopefully be getting a slightly bigger price tomorrow evening for Dessie Hughes' charge to reverse the form with Hurricane Fly in March and will be taking that with glee!
Hurricane Fly leads the way as favourite for both tomorrow and the March race in mind. He is the reigning champion, world record holder for number of grade 1 wins and apple of Ruby Walsh's eye. The sharp track of Leopardstown will suit the Fly down to a tee, he has speed none of the rest of this field have being an ex-Flat horse rated in the 90's. Compare this to Jezki, who was a bumper horse and Our Conor, rated 60-70 on the flat, and you can see why this course should play into Hurricane Fly's hands. He had the beating of this field over this Course and Distance over the Christmas period and his trainer, the Irish Champion trainer Willie Mullins, expects the Fly to actually come on for that run. Bearing all this in mind the Fly should hose up no?
Well the bookies have him priced up at 4/7 for tomorrow and I wouldn't really want to lay the Fly even at that price. They race tomorrow over the inner-most track, it will be the sharpest, speediest course possible and with no guaranteed pace in the race (even though Captain Cee Bee went out in front at Christmas the rest of the field were hardly hot on his tail, taking there time to come past him and blasting him away when they eventually did.) this could develop into a sprint, which would suit the Fly as well. There are arguments saying Jezki and Our Conor will come on for their Christmas exertions as well. Jezki didn't get the clearest of runs, McCoy got pegged in by Our Conor and had to check Jezki in his run, while Our Conor was effectively having his first outing of the season having been laid low by injury after his pipe-opener on the flat. However I think the track and pace in the race will not put enough emphasis on stamina for either of these horses tomorrow and the Fly looks by far the most likely winner of the Irish Champion Hurdle.
However I'm not quite finished there. Whilst I expect the Fly to win tomorrow I don't actually expect him to win the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle. He has never run to his peak over this side of the Irish sea, which seems strange when he has won the race twice. I don't know what it is, the track may not suit him as much, he may not enjoy the travelling, perhaps he prefers the refreshments available in Ireland. In previous years this has not always mattered and Hurricane Fly has been able to win regardless. Mind you this years renewal of the race looks the strongest for many a year with My Tent or Yours and the New One expected to really put it down to the reigning champ in addition to the rivals he will race tomorrow. With Cheltenham in mind I am hoping for another encouraging run from Our Conor tomorrow before he comes over the Irish Sea on March. This horse's victory in last years Triumph Hurdle is unforgettable, the way he routed that field by 14 odd lengths was incredible and he clearly is a horse who loves the galloping undulations of Cheltenham. This horse wants the emphasis on stamina more than speed and he should get that at Cheltenham especially if perennial front runner Un De Sceaux lines up. With this in mind, and his early season setback which may mean he may still slightly need tomorrows run, I expect Our Conor to lose to the Fly tomorrow but as long as he doesn't bomb out completely I'll hopefully be getting a slightly bigger price tomorrow evening for Dessie Hughes' charge to reverse the form with Hurricane Fly in March and will be taking that with glee!
By George what a Cleeve Hurdle
Wow. 2 out and you'd fancy Big Bucks to have won that race comfortably...Sam Twiston-Davies was at the front and looking comfortable. He'd been out in front for quite a while with the other 5 horses a few lengths behind but at this point nothing looked more comfortable than the great 4 time World Hurdle winner. And then it started...Big Bucks was no longer pulling away from the pack, At Fishers Cross was looking decent under the Champion Jockey McCoy which was surely where the biggest threat to Big Bucks was now going to come from. Ok there was some 66/1 poke who hadn't win in 17 visits to Cheltenham, Knockara Beau, but surely he couldn't dethrone the great hurdler could he? After all he was rated a whopping 21lbs inferior to the returning Nicholls inmate. But despite being matched at 1000 in the run that's exactly what happened as Knockara Beau under Jan Faltejsek came through to beat At Fishers Cross into 2nd place with Big Bucks back in third, casting the Cheltenham crowd into silence. The happiness and emotion on Jan's face as he crossed the line in front was there for all to see and you couldn't help but be extremely pleased for him. I'm sure the bookies were thrilled as well, casting memories of the betting coup that had gone against them in midweek far into the distance.
In the immediate aftermath of the race fingers began being pointed. It could certainly be said that Sam Twiston-Davies was in front for far too long on Big Bucks, and with experience I think we would see a far different run from the young jockey. However in his prime Big Bucks would have overcome that slight tactical issue without too much trouble, certainly without 21lbs worth of trouble. Nicholls said post race that the heavy ground wasn't idea but they just had to get a run into the horse, and that can't be disputed. However what will be debated in the coming days and weeks will be just how much Big Bucks will come on for that run. He certainly travelled well enough, as I say 2 out he looked all over the winner. It was the point at which you were used seeing Big Bucks put the race to bed where the trouble started. He didn't seem to be able to go away from his rivals. He certainly didn't fade out of contention at all, the old stamina seems to remain, but age doesn't tend to eat away at stamina as it does speed and that was where I though the biggest problem was. Who knows, with a run and a few more gallops under his belt Big Bucks may regain that spark and kick, and the horse we see in the World Hurdle may be able to put the race to bed coming over the 2nd last.
3/1, the price quoted immediately after the race, may still attract a lot of punters especially considering we don't know if the horse at the head of the market with him for that race, Annie Power, will even turn up. However I wouldn't be so quick to lump on. Firstly we've got the potential issue I mentioned above, Big Bucks isn't the young horse he once was so there is no guarantee he still possessed the zip and speed of old. Secondly no-one knows how well he will come out of his first race for 14 months. The race today showed us that Big Bucks, right now, is not the horse he once was. Whether you fancy him for the World Hurdle at 3/1 or not depends on if you still believe Nicholls can get the horse back to the peaks he was once capable of and after today a little doubt has been placed in my mind. I certainly won't be rushing to the bookies this evening thats for sure.
In the immediate aftermath of the race fingers began being pointed. It could certainly be said that Sam Twiston-Davies was in front for far too long on Big Bucks, and with experience I think we would see a far different run from the young jockey. However in his prime Big Bucks would have overcome that slight tactical issue without too much trouble, certainly without 21lbs worth of trouble. Nicholls said post race that the heavy ground wasn't idea but they just had to get a run into the horse, and that can't be disputed. However what will be debated in the coming days and weeks will be just how much Big Bucks will come on for that run. He certainly travelled well enough, as I say 2 out he looked all over the winner. It was the point at which you were used seeing Big Bucks put the race to bed where the trouble started. He didn't seem to be able to go away from his rivals. He certainly didn't fade out of contention at all, the old stamina seems to remain, but age doesn't tend to eat away at stamina as it does speed and that was where I though the biggest problem was. Who knows, with a run and a few more gallops under his belt Big Bucks may regain that spark and kick, and the horse we see in the World Hurdle may be able to put the race to bed coming over the 2nd last.
3/1, the price quoted immediately after the race, may still attract a lot of punters especially considering we don't know if the horse at the head of the market with him for that race, Annie Power, will even turn up. However I wouldn't be so quick to lump on. Firstly we've got the potential issue I mentioned above, Big Bucks isn't the young horse he once was so there is no guarantee he still possessed the zip and speed of old. Secondly no-one knows how well he will come out of his first race for 14 months. The race today showed us that Big Bucks, right now, is not the horse he once was. Whether you fancy him for the World Hurdle at 3/1 or not depends on if you still believe Nicholls can get the horse back to the peaks he was once capable of and after today a little doubt has been placed in my mind. I certainly won't be rushing to the bookies this evening thats for sure.
Friday 24 January 2014
Saturday - Cheltenham and Doncaster
A great days racing lies in store today on touch ground - Cheltenham has gone Heavy, soft in places while the testing conditions at Doncaster have seen Rock on Ruby withdrawn from their exciting Novice Chase. These conditions will certainly not be a hinderance to my Ante-Post tip of Harry Topper for the Argento Chase earlier in the week; only three of today's have won over 3 miles on soft/heavy with my selection being one of them. Lets hope Jason Maguire gets a good round of jumping out of him and gets this blog a 1/1 for Ante-post tipping!
Away from Harry Topper there are a few more fancies for me on Saturday, make a note of these and avoid them down the bookies!
Impressive Kempton Winner Amore Alato goes into a handicap for the first time in the 4.10 at Cheltenham. Trip and ground will be fine for this horse who has a pedigree laden with stamina and he should go very well under the champion jockey.
Shooters Wood can outrun his price of 9/1 in the 1.30 at Doncaster. He will have come on bundles for his reappearance and is not just 4lbs above his last winning mark, a win gained on testing ground. If the dead eight remain in this race then he is a great looking e/w shot.
I didn't think I would be able to do this on a blog but you can back Big Bucks at odds-against today and this opportunity should be grabbed with both hands and maybe your toes as well. Nicholls is a great trainer and won't have left anything to chance with this great horse, he will have him as fit as he can get him for his comeback run. The ground is in favour of Reve De Sivola but last time these two met Big Bucks gave Reve weight and an almighty thrashing. Racing off level weights today if Big Bucks still retains his old sparkle, and I think racing fans as a whole hope he does, then he can make the quotes of 6/4 offered by some firms look like the bet of the century.
There are a good deal of races which look certain to provide a wealth of clues for the Festival in March and I will be looking back at these later but for now enjoy a great days racing!
Away from Harry Topper there are a few more fancies for me on Saturday, make a note of these and avoid them down the bookies!
Impressive Kempton Winner Amore Alato goes into a handicap for the first time in the 4.10 at Cheltenham. Trip and ground will be fine for this horse who has a pedigree laden with stamina and he should go very well under the champion jockey.
Shooters Wood can outrun his price of 9/1 in the 1.30 at Doncaster. He will have come on bundles for his reappearance and is not just 4lbs above his last winning mark, a win gained on testing ground. If the dead eight remain in this race then he is a great looking e/w shot.
I didn't think I would be able to do this on a blog but you can back Big Bucks at odds-against today and this opportunity should be grabbed with both hands and maybe your toes as well. Nicholls is a great trainer and won't have left anything to chance with this great horse, he will have him as fit as he can get him for his comeback run. The ground is in favour of Reve De Sivola but last time these two met Big Bucks gave Reve weight and an almighty thrashing. Racing off level weights today if Big Bucks still retains his old sparkle, and I think racing fans as a whole hope he does, then he can make the quotes of 6/4 offered by some firms look like the bet of the century.
There are a good deal of races which look certain to provide a wealth of clues for the Festival in March and I will be looking back at these later but for now enjoy a great days racing!
Tuesday 21 January 2014
Ante-post Argento Chase - a Top tip
Entries came out for some of the big races this weekend and I thought I'd just touch on the Argento Chase to look for a bit of early value. We see Hennessy winner Triolo D'Alene feature amongst 12 horses lining up over the 3m 1 furlong trip at HQ. One very interesting horse is the Colin Tizzard horse Theatre Guide, there were rumours that Tizzard thinks he may have a Gold Cup horse here which would allow Cue Card to go down the Ryanair trip. Theatre Guide was just touched off here over the trip by Monberg Dude in December but that was only a couple of weeks after a gallant run to finish third in the Hennessy and he may benefit from a longer break between races here. What isn't up for debate is that Theatre Guide will stay the trip, he definitely will. Weather he is good enough however is another matter altogether as he was receiving weight from both Rocky Creek and Triolo D'Alene at Newbury and was beaten fair and square by them both that day. With the other 2 better off at the weights on Saturday there is no obvious reason why he should turn around the form with that pair but at 8/1 with 12 runners in the race he could well be staying on while others have cried enough and get a place at the end of this gruelling trip.
A few other horses can be ruled out quite quickly.
Walkon from the Alan King stable will be one of King's first runners since his yard took a break with a bug going round the horses and you would want to see some of his runners go well before getting involved really. Judging on the way Champion Court travelled in last year's King George before cutting out at the start of the home straight you would have to say on a more testing track he just won't get this trip.
I don't think the Giant Bolster is good enough for all that he loves it round Cheltenham; he's run well in recent Gold Cups but he didn't run well enough over hurdles on new Years Day to convince me that he isn't on the decline now.
At his best Time for Rupert would give this lot a serious amount to think about, however we've only seen him once since November 2012 and he weakened dramatically that day. It would be that he will come on a bundle for that re-appearance, some 50 lengths behind Reve De Sivola at Ascot, however if he does I certainly won't be winning on the race.
Pigeon Island - just no and Restless Harry won't jump well enough.
Back to a few horses I do like now. Houblon Des Obeaux is an admirable horse and the stable are going very well at the moment with the mud flying. He comes here off the back over a win at Ascot over 3 miles and on soft going so you would think the trip and going will be fine on Saturday. However he was well beaten in the Hennessy by three of Saturday's re-opposing rivals and it would be hard to see him turning round form with all three of them.
Rocky Creek has an obvious favourites chance. Although beaten by Triolo D'Alene in the Hennessy he is more favoured by the weights here and has a leading chance with the trip and ground looking fine. However go back six races in his for and you will see a 2nd place, beaten by a certain Harry Topper over three miles. This is where I feel the value may lie on Saturday...with Kim Bailey's charge.
I feel you can forgive his Sandown run last time out, the famous railway fences will have put his jumping under tremendous pressure and with the obstacles a bit more spaced out at Cheltenham I hope this will see a better performance in that respect at the weekend. Harry Topper has the beating of many of Saturday's rivals in his previous form and is available at 12/1 - generous! This means you can get involved each-way and get 3/1 about a place for a horse that will stay the trip, like the ground and has the form to win the contest. Remember this is a horse that has already beaten Unioniste and last years JLT winner Benifficient so far this season on re-appearance, has the beating of Rocky Creek and Houblon Des Obeaux earlier in his career and is not even in the top 7 in the market. At 12/1 Kim Bailey's charge looks to early value call.
A few other horses can be ruled out quite quickly.
Walkon from the Alan King stable will be one of King's first runners since his yard took a break with a bug going round the horses and you would want to see some of his runners go well before getting involved really. Judging on the way Champion Court travelled in last year's King George before cutting out at the start of the home straight you would have to say on a more testing track he just won't get this trip.
I don't think the Giant Bolster is good enough for all that he loves it round Cheltenham; he's run well in recent Gold Cups but he didn't run well enough over hurdles on new Years Day to convince me that he isn't on the decline now.
At his best Time for Rupert would give this lot a serious amount to think about, however we've only seen him once since November 2012 and he weakened dramatically that day. It would be that he will come on a bundle for that re-appearance, some 50 lengths behind Reve De Sivola at Ascot, however if he does I certainly won't be winning on the race.
Pigeon Island - just no and Restless Harry won't jump well enough.
Back to a few horses I do like now. Houblon Des Obeaux is an admirable horse and the stable are going very well at the moment with the mud flying. He comes here off the back over a win at Ascot over 3 miles and on soft going so you would think the trip and going will be fine on Saturday. However he was well beaten in the Hennessy by three of Saturday's re-opposing rivals and it would be hard to see him turning round form with all three of them.
Rocky Creek has an obvious favourites chance. Although beaten by Triolo D'Alene in the Hennessy he is more favoured by the weights here and has a leading chance with the trip and ground looking fine. However go back six races in his for and you will see a 2nd place, beaten by a certain Harry Topper over three miles. This is where I feel the value may lie on Saturday...with Kim Bailey's charge.
I feel you can forgive his Sandown run last time out, the famous railway fences will have put his jumping under tremendous pressure and with the obstacles a bit more spaced out at Cheltenham I hope this will see a better performance in that respect at the weekend. Harry Topper has the beating of many of Saturday's rivals in his previous form and is available at 12/1 - generous! This means you can get involved each-way and get 3/1 about a place for a horse that will stay the trip, like the ground and has the form to win the contest. Remember this is a horse that has already beaten Unioniste and last years JLT winner Benifficient so far this season on re-appearance, has the beating of Rocky Creek and Houblon Des Obeaux earlier in his career and is not even in the top 7 in the market. At 12/1 Kim Bailey's charge looks to early value call.
Sunday 19 January 2014
First go at this blogging game - weekend thoughts
As this is my first blog let me first give a little overview of what I want this to be about. It's not overly complex, I'll just be using this page for my betting-related ramblings. I'll mostly focus on Horse racing and football, my two favourite ways to lose money, giving thoughts on the current goings on in both sports and perhaps a few tips which will probably lose me any readership I build up! And a little bit about myself...well I'm a 23 year old sports-mad guy, football, running, cycling, horse-racing etc etc etc, the list goes on. For my sins I'm a supporter of Newcastle United and have been on board that emotional rollercoaster for some great times (Champions League football, Sir Bobby Robson) and some not so great (Championship football). Then there's the whole Ashley/Kinnear sage but I'm not sure if there are words I can use to describe that. On the horse-racing side of things I'm most definitely a Jumps boy, Kauto Star's 2011 King George win will live very long in the memory and I've got my first visit to the home of Jump racing lined up this year which I can't wait for. And what a way to be welcomed to Cheltenham - the Champion hurdle looks like being one of the all time great races in the sport. Anyway lets get onto the first blog!
Over the weekend we saw a few horses with Cheltenham hopes running on ground which will probably (hopefully) bear no resemblance to that which horses will gallop over in 7 weeks time. The constant rain around is making heavy going commonplace across most of the tracks we're racing at, with the exception of the all-weather. However even the likes of Lingfield are not getting away from the impact of the falling water with huge flooding around the area. I got first hand experience of said flooding when out on my bike ride this Saturday, a great deal of ad-hoc route planning had to be done to avoid the numerous road closures.
However one horse that will most certainly have cemented his place in punter's Cheltenham thoughts was Sire De Grugy. Although I fancied Somersby for the race that horse unshipped Elsworth before the race really developed, leaving Gary Moore's charge to romp home. The performance was visually very impressive and if Sprinter Sacre doesn't line up in the Queen Mother he looks like being a hot favourite. However I've got the niggling doubt in the back of my mind around his ability to act to his best at Cheltenham and the one I've got in my mind for that race at a big price is Special Tiara. At 40/1 you can afford to take a punt and this horse will love a return to good ground which I hope we will see come March. He's not been seen to his best so far this season but I'm pleased to see his trainer stop slogging him on a testing surface. His win at Aintree at the end of last season was very impressive, indeed he beat Sire De Grugy as well as Overturn, which shows the talent he has granted 2 miles on good ground. I think the intention is to give Special Tiara one more run in Ireland before the festival and I'll certainly be watching that with interest bearing March in mind.
The Mares' Hurdle earlier on at Ascot was a great race to watch with a thrilling finish involving some very game mares. The favourite Mickie looked to be beat 3 out but kept on fighting in a very admirable winner. However there was no faulting the so so game Highland Retreat. Harry Fry can be very proud of his horse as she really did put it all in to take the win here and quotes of 20/1 for the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, also known as 'the race Quevega always wins' were floated around after the race. If Willie's wonder-mare turns up to the festival as she has in previous years then she will obviously be a very tough nut to crack and it's not usually a race I like to get involved in. However, branching off slightly, if Annie Power turned up in this race I'd be much more interested. I can't see that happening though especially given quotes from AP's owner suggesting the Champion Hurdle is the race he wants to win (Please send her there Willie!)
This really is a fascinating subject and one I have to touch upon. Given the talent in the Mullins yard, with Hurricane Fly and dark-horse Un Des Sceaux ready for the Champion Hurdle, Quevega mopping up the mares race and perhaps slight doubts over the necessity of a 3 mile trip, it will be intriguing to see where Annie Power lines up. I would really love her to go for the 2 mile race but can you really see Mullins putting her in there, especially considering Walsh's attachment to Hurricane Fly? At the same time I can't see her being put in against Quevega, what is the point especially when Quevega is on track to break the record for consecutive race wins at the festival. If Big Bucks bombs out in the Cleeve hurdle this coming weekend I could see the attraction of the 3 mile Championship race, however as Oscar Whiskey has proved there is a huge difference in looking strong after 2 miles 4 furlongs and properly getting the 3 mile trip. But then we could say what if the Fly gets beat in the upcoming Irish Champion hurdle? It looks like we won't know Annie Power's target till much closer to festival time but I hope that Rich Ricci gets on at Willie to put her in the Champion hurdle as that really would make the 2 mile event the undoubted race of the festival.
Anyway back to the weekend's action we saw Irish Saint win very impressively in the Grade 2 handicap hurdle, setting himself up nicely for a tilt at the Betfair hurdle in February. Nicholls has said today that that race is the target given the ground is suitable and it will be interesting to see how much the handicapper hits the horse with after this in regards to future handicaps. However I believe that Irish Saint will only have to carry a 5lbs penalty in the Betfair and it certainly looked like he could have carried a few extra pounds on Saturday as he really did win with bags in hand. Up at Haydock another hurdler hit the headlines when Melodic Rendevous bounced back to form after a poor run behind My Tent or Yours up at Newcastle previously. Trainer Jeremy Scott believes the horse pulled a muscle on that run though, explaining the horses poor performance, and he will have been delighted with Melodic Rendevous on Saturday. Pre-race Scott had said that his hurdler was still a bit short on fitness, making this win even more impressive, and I can see why some will fancy him as an e/w shout for the Champion hurdle at odds as big as 33/1. However he is another horse who I think prefers the current going conditions to the ones he will likely encounter at Cheltenham and I'm not tempted even at that price. He also appears quite a fragile horse, missing last year's festival with a physical problem as well as the previously mentioned muscle strain at Newcastle, and that makes him less appealing as an ante-post selection.
Taquin De Seuil is a horse I love and it was great to see him hose up in the Novices Chase at Haydock. However the absence of Gevrey Chambertin effectively made this race a penalty kick for Jonjo's charge and he still made the odd mistake at his fences. I wonder if connections would consider the RSA Chase on the Wednesday at Cheltenham for him as I think going a slightly slower pace would help his jumpin. After all, when he went over 2 miles earlier in the season at Sandown they were definitely going a shade to quick for him which caused his jumping to go to pot. He is prominent in the betting for the JLT and the RSA Chase and is another horse (notice the theme here) who certainly would not be inconvinienced by soft ground. If it does come up as good ground in March I think Taquin would have his best chance in the RSA because this might make even the 2 mile 4 furlong trip of the JLT a touch too pacey.
We saw a bubble burst as David Pipe's expensive recruit to hurdling Un Temps Pour Tout get beat in the Supreme Novices Hurdle trial by Venetia William's Zamdy Man. Venetia's horses really are flying at the moment, they absolutely love the heavy going, but I couldn't have Zamdy Man as a potential winner of the festival opener. However I haven't got anything useful to say about that race as it looks a tremendously open heat at the time of writing with odds of 10/1 or greater available for every contender. We're still waiting for something to come out and shout "Back Me" with a great performance and have seen a couple come out of the Mullins yard and win without exactly thrilling. Its certainly not a market I'd be scrambling to have a bet in that's for sure.
A final note of congratulations from the weekend must go to Paddy Brennan who took one ride at Ascot and one in the final race on the card at Haydock, winning on them both. I'm sure there must have been a few eagle eyed punters who had spotted this travelling schedule and backed Brennan's mounts accordingly. Sadly I wasn't one of them!
Looking ahead now and we've got a nice card over in Ireland on Thursday including the feature race the Thyestes chase. Then we're on to the weekend which lets us welcome back the great Big Bucks to competitive action after a year off with injury. It will be fabulous to see the wonderful hurdler back in action and I'm sure a lot of attention will be on the man riding him as well as the horse himself! Sam Twiston-Davies has landed a great ride on board this champ and fully deserves it as far as I am concerned. He has been riding very well this year and it will be fantastic for racing as a whole if he can guide Big Bucks to victory on his return. The rest of the Cheltenham card will surely be very entertaining and we also have some good fare on offer at Doncaster, including the competitive Skybet Handicap Chase, so I'll be back later in the week to provide some musings over the weekend cards as well as a few selections for you to consider (and then avoid!)
Thanks for reading!
Alex
The Mares' Hurdle earlier on at Ascot was a great race to watch with a thrilling finish involving some very game mares. The favourite Mickie looked to be beat 3 out but kept on fighting in a very admirable winner. However there was no faulting the so so game Highland Retreat. Harry Fry can be very proud of his horse as she really did put it all in to take the win here and quotes of 20/1 for the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, also known as 'the race Quevega always wins' were floated around after the race. If Willie's wonder-mare turns up to the festival as she has in previous years then she will obviously be a very tough nut to crack and it's not usually a race I like to get involved in. However, branching off slightly, if Annie Power turned up in this race I'd be much more interested. I can't see that happening though especially given quotes from AP's owner suggesting the Champion Hurdle is the race he wants to win (Please send her there Willie!)
This really is a fascinating subject and one I have to touch upon. Given the talent in the Mullins yard, with Hurricane Fly and dark-horse Un Des Sceaux ready for the Champion Hurdle, Quevega mopping up the mares race and perhaps slight doubts over the necessity of a 3 mile trip, it will be intriguing to see where Annie Power lines up. I would really love her to go for the 2 mile race but can you really see Mullins putting her in there, especially considering Walsh's attachment to Hurricane Fly? At the same time I can't see her being put in against Quevega, what is the point especially when Quevega is on track to break the record for consecutive race wins at the festival. If Big Bucks bombs out in the Cleeve hurdle this coming weekend I could see the attraction of the 3 mile Championship race, however as Oscar Whiskey has proved there is a huge difference in looking strong after 2 miles 4 furlongs and properly getting the 3 mile trip. But then we could say what if the Fly gets beat in the upcoming Irish Champion hurdle? It looks like we won't know Annie Power's target till much closer to festival time but I hope that Rich Ricci gets on at Willie to put her in the Champion hurdle as that really would make the 2 mile event the undoubted race of the festival.
Anyway back to the weekend's action we saw Irish Saint win very impressively in the Grade 2 handicap hurdle, setting himself up nicely for a tilt at the Betfair hurdle in February. Nicholls has said today that that race is the target given the ground is suitable and it will be interesting to see how much the handicapper hits the horse with after this in regards to future handicaps. However I believe that Irish Saint will only have to carry a 5lbs penalty in the Betfair and it certainly looked like he could have carried a few extra pounds on Saturday as he really did win with bags in hand. Up at Haydock another hurdler hit the headlines when Melodic Rendevous bounced back to form after a poor run behind My Tent or Yours up at Newcastle previously. Trainer Jeremy Scott believes the horse pulled a muscle on that run though, explaining the horses poor performance, and he will have been delighted with Melodic Rendevous on Saturday. Pre-race Scott had said that his hurdler was still a bit short on fitness, making this win even more impressive, and I can see why some will fancy him as an e/w shout for the Champion hurdle at odds as big as 33/1. However he is another horse who I think prefers the current going conditions to the ones he will likely encounter at Cheltenham and I'm not tempted even at that price. He also appears quite a fragile horse, missing last year's festival with a physical problem as well as the previously mentioned muscle strain at Newcastle, and that makes him less appealing as an ante-post selection.
Taquin De Seuil is a horse I love and it was great to see him hose up in the Novices Chase at Haydock. However the absence of Gevrey Chambertin effectively made this race a penalty kick for Jonjo's charge and he still made the odd mistake at his fences. I wonder if connections would consider the RSA Chase on the Wednesday at Cheltenham for him as I think going a slightly slower pace would help his jumpin. After all, when he went over 2 miles earlier in the season at Sandown they were definitely going a shade to quick for him which caused his jumping to go to pot. He is prominent in the betting for the JLT and the RSA Chase and is another horse (notice the theme here) who certainly would not be inconvinienced by soft ground. If it does come up as good ground in March I think Taquin would have his best chance in the RSA because this might make even the 2 mile 4 furlong trip of the JLT a touch too pacey.
We saw a bubble burst as David Pipe's expensive recruit to hurdling Un Temps Pour Tout get beat in the Supreme Novices Hurdle trial by Venetia William's Zamdy Man. Venetia's horses really are flying at the moment, they absolutely love the heavy going, but I couldn't have Zamdy Man as a potential winner of the festival opener. However I haven't got anything useful to say about that race as it looks a tremendously open heat at the time of writing with odds of 10/1 or greater available for every contender. We're still waiting for something to come out and shout "Back Me" with a great performance and have seen a couple come out of the Mullins yard and win without exactly thrilling. Its certainly not a market I'd be scrambling to have a bet in that's for sure.
A final note of congratulations from the weekend must go to Paddy Brennan who took one ride at Ascot and one in the final race on the card at Haydock, winning on them both. I'm sure there must have been a few eagle eyed punters who had spotted this travelling schedule and backed Brennan's mounts accordingly. Sadly I wasn't one of them!
Looking ahead now and we've got a nice card over in Ireland on Thursday including the feature race the Thyestes chase. Then we're on to the weekend which lets us welcome back the great Big Bucks to competitive action after a year off with injury. It will be fabulous to see the wonderful hurdler back in action and I'm sure a lot of attention will be on the man riding him as well as the horse himself! Sam Twiston-Davies has landed a great ride on board this champ and fully deserves it as far as I am concerned. He has been riding very well this year and it will be fantastic for racing as a whole if he can guide Big Bucks to victory on his return. The rest of the Cheltenham card will surely be very entertaining and we also have some good fare on offer at Doncaster, including the competitive Skybet Handicap Chase, so I'll be back later in the week to provide some musings over the weekend cards as well as a few selections for you to consider (and then avoid!)
Thanks for reading!
Alex
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