New Year at Cheltenham

Happy New Year!

Let me start by wishing you all a happy new year, lets hope its a successful one! And we can sooth the hangovers and aching heads on the 1st of January by absorbing ourselves in a really good card from Cheltenham in addition to plenty of action elsewhere. However, its the home of Jump racing to which my eye is drawn and Ive gone through the card here in the hope of welcoming in the new year with a few winners! The going, well its heavy, soft in places, so looks like stamina will be at a premium for jockeys as well as horses! If any of the jockeys have overdone the New Years celebrations the Cheltenham hill could be an unwanted feature of the races today...

12:10 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

A cracking race to welcome in the New Year at Cheltenham, this Novices Hurdle features the highly thought of Champers on Ice, Captain Chaos who has finished 2nd in a Grade 2, Drumlee Sunset, Hawkhurst and West Approach for the jockey/trainer combination of the moment. These are all horses with good form in the book, Captain Chaos has probably achieved the most so far over timber, and looks like he will head the market. Of the market principals I'd probably be with West Approach though, he has form over 3 miles round this track, so the stamina test posed on New Year's day shouldn't be a problem, and he has won on heavy ground before as well. Brennan will be riding at the peak of his confidence and I think he will prove hard to beat here.
However with the ground going to be heavy I'm expecting we could see a shock result or two on the card and I'm going to look down the runners for a horse or two to spring a shock in the opener.

Given the form of the yard at the moment I'm going to discount Hawkhurst as the Nicholls horses just don't seem to be running their races at the moment, but stable form also makes me interested in hurdling debutant Coole Charmer for Nicky Henderson. It's a tough race to make hurdling debut in but they must think a lot of him to stick him in here and definitely looks one to watch in the market.

Another to note is the Rebecca Curtis horse Preseli Rock, up in trip here but with plenty of form on heavy going in the book. I am drawn to the Curtis runners who have shown decent form when the yard was under a cloud, the horses are running much better now and I fancy Preseli Rock to improve on what he has shown so far.

I've given a few up there to have a look at in the opener where the notebook should be out in force!

Can Mr Henderson celebrate with a New Year's winner?

12:40 Watch Live Racing On BetBright.com Handicap Chase 

Now this will be some stamina test, 3 miles 2 furlongs on heavy ground - stayers only need apply here! Right, lets go through a few of these; I was drawn to Hollow Blue Sky at the foot of the weights but he ran in this race last year off a 1 lbs higher mark and didn't stay, finishing 8th, and comes here in pretty bad form. Discounting him. I wanted to keep on looking for feather weights so onto De Kerry Man, who has been off the track over 300 days since his last run. Whilst he does have loads of form on the ground this is a step up in trip and after such a long time off he may just need this.

In the end I have had to go quite a long way up in the weights for my selection, which is Alternative from the yard of David Pipe, well versed in landing a Cheltenham handicap or two. A 4 pound rise for his win last time out, over this trip on soft ground, seems fair enough and his 3rd at Cheltenham 2 runs ago looks pretty decent when you consider a lot of the Pipe yard were running below expectations at the time. He is only 6 years old so you would fancy there is a fair bit of improvement in here and I think he looks like one to be on here, despite the quite large weight he has to carry.

1:20 BetBright Realfansonly Novices' Chase (Registered As The Dipper Novices' Chase)

This is a top class renewal of the Dipper with some top form brought to the table. Le Mercury was lucky to win the last day, and with Nicholls not in good from I'm going to pass him by for all he is a horse I like. I'd also be keen to get with a horse receiving weight here and also one with form on the ground, with proven stamina, so the one I'm with here is Aubusson for lady of the moment Lizzie Kelly. Aubusson has smart hurdles form, won really well on chase debut the last day over 3 miles at uttoxeter (so stamina looks assured) and was deemed good enough to have a crack at the World Hurdle last year. Lizzie will be riding with loads of confidence and I think over a course and a distance he has form at (albeit over hurdles) Aubusson can provide Lizzie with another big success.

 Make no mistake though this race will be a cracker, Three Musketeers and Blaklion were very tough to ignore but they do have to concede weight all round, Minella Rocco is no doubt a lovely horse but hasn't fired over fences thus far, and Volnay De Thaix could possibly prefer a bit better ground. See You At Midnight would be an e/w selection to chase Aubusson home for me.

Can Lizzie Kelly get another big race win this Festive period?

1:55 BetBright Best For Festival Betting Handicap Chase 

Here is a favourite I quite want to take on in Village Vic. Now Village Vic was very impressive last time out, winning the Caspin Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham off an 8lbs lower mark, however he is up in the weights here to a mark of 144 and looking back through his form he would look to prefer better ground. And remember that was certainly 'the day' for Village Vic as he was seriously well fancied and had Dickie Johnson sweating down to 10 stone! At around the 7/2 mark there is enough to want to make me look elsewhere in this competitive heat.

A Good Skin is the one for me here, a horse who ran better than the result would show the last day (3rd in the Badger Ales Chase, got no luck in running, has actually been dropped 1 lbs since as well) and is taking a step down in trip here. He has some good form at Cheltenham in the past and also runs well when the ground comes up soft so heavy ground, on a trip shorter than usual, could prove right up his street. I always like Tom George Chasers and Gold Cup winning jockey Paddy Brennan will be doing the steering so from the bottom of the weights A Good Skin is the bet here.

2:30 Betbright Casino Handicap Hurdle

I'd love old warhorse Knockara Beau to win here, his victory in the Cleeve Hurdle in 2014 was absolutely astonishing and if you were on that day at 66/1 (I wasn't!) then he owes you absolutely nothing! However he has also shown absolutely nothing in 2015, being pulled up on his only run, so it is pretty hard to see him winning here, for all it would be some story!

I'm going for a horse at the bottom of the weights who absolutely hacked up on his latest start when upped to this 3 mile trip at Southwell the last day in Singlefarmpayment. Prior to that run he had finished a good 2nd in two handicap chases, but if the step up in trip has unlocked more improvement then I fancy him to go close here off a lovely low weight and with Nico De Boinville on board who is riding really well this year. Preferably chased home by the old boy Knockara Beau though!

3:05 Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle

Another absolutely cracking race featuring the reigning World Hurdle Champion Cole Harden. However after the great performance Identity Thief put up over Christmas, narrowly being denied by Nicholls Canyon in the Ryanair Hurdle, I want to be with Top Notch here, who receives weight from a lot in this field and will adore the ground at Cheltenham. He also loves the Cheltenham track, he was only just denied in the Triumph Hurdle in March 2015. This is a step up in trip but all the form Top Notch has shown so far makes it look like he has bags of stamina and getting weight from the likes of Whisper and Cole Harden make Top Notch the main selection.

Bob's Worth, the unbeaten hurdler, is also very interesting but I feel he will want better ground. I'd love to see him run really well here as I think the World Hurdle could be wide open this year, but I think he may also get slightly tapped for toe over this trip. Whisper and Cole Harden will surely improve on their rather disappointing seasonal debuts at Newbury the last day, however giving weight to the field may prove a bit too much on this ground. With Cole Harden's well publicised breathing issues he will also want better ground that presented here. Smart mare Aurore D'Estruval could be worth monitoring on her first start for Rebecca Curtis but after a year off the track may need this.

Don't ignore the claims of Virgilio for Dan Skelton here either, he may rate a nice e/w bet coming here off the back of three back to back wins and looks highly progressive. Dan has brought him along very nicely and he has won on very soft ground over in France. He looks like he will get the trip, however winning at Aintree and Warwick are very different to winning at Cheltenham and that is the reason I pass him over, for all I can see him running very well at a slightly bigger price than the selection Top Notch.

Can Top Notch prove Top Notch for the blog?

3:40 EBF Stallions & Cheltenham Pony Club Standard Open NH Flat Race

We finish the card with a bumper where I will not be getting too heavily involved! There are plenty of unarmed horses, however I'll put up a selection in the shape of Le Coeur Net. Anthony Honeyball, a trainer who enjoys success in this sphere, trains this one and I think it is significant he has booked Barry Geraghty for the ride.  In his blog for At The Races Barry says

"I ride LE COUER NET (3.40) in the Listed EBF Stallions & Cheltenham Pony Club Standard Open NH Flat Race for Anthony Honeyball.  He has never run before, but four of his siblings have won over jumps in France and Italy, and Anthony’s horses are going well."

However that is literally al I'm going on, I want to take on the Paul Nicholls favourite due to the stable form, and I do not advise heavy bets in this race unless you are privy to some inside information!

Thanks for reading and let's hope we can welcome in 2016 with a few winners!

All the best for the year ahead

Alex

Arise Sir Anthony McCoy

Arise Sir Anthony McCoy!

One of the most highly deserved knighthoods (in my humble opinion) has been granted to Anthony McCoy, or AP / The Champ as we more commonly refer to him as. The 20 time Champion jockey, having 31 career winners at the  Festival Cheltenham, setting the record of most wins in a season with 289 and a whopping 4,357 career wins. Wow. He battled numerous injuries, managed his weight and remained motivated for 20 consecutive years, absolutely incredible in my opinion. Never again will we see his like, such a long and relentless period of unparalleled success, this hugely driven, determined and committed man is one of a kind. He would get horses to win that never looked like winning, give horses confidence that was beyond their experience and lets not forget he would also give invaluable feedback to trainers and owners post-race that would help their horse to progress next time. The man was the complete jockey package and became hugely popular with the public; there won't have been a dry eye in Aintree the day he finally won the Grand National at his 15th attempt onboard Don't Push It. Family Business when re-mounting was allowed, Wichita Lineman at Cheltenham, Synchronised in the Gold Cup, Pridwell when he got the better of Istabraq, Drill Sergeant who practically pulled himself up but was still convinced to win by the Champ (or should that read persuaded!) AP McCoy would put as much effort into a ride at Uttoxeter as he would at the Cheltenham Festival. You always knew you would get 100% from the Champ wherever he was riding, whatever he was riding and to do this for a career lasting over 7,300 days is certainly something that should be recognised

If you get a few moments in this holiday period I'd definitely reckoned watching the documentary 'Being AP'; I found it enthralling viewing, and it gives you a call insight into the Champ and his personality and daily battles.

Congratulations Sir Anthony McCoy!

Christmas Eye-catchers

Well after some absolutely incredible horse racing over the past few days, including one of the most exciting King Georges I've ever seen, Storm Frank is set to cause somewhat of a lull in the action over the next few days. Fingers crossed Cheltenham on New Year's Day goes ahead as there are some top horses entered up at this stage but for now I thought I would go back and nominate a few moments that have really caught my eye over the Festive period.

The King George Chase, Kempton Park

Cue Card and Vautour produce a nfailbiting finish in the King George at Kempton

Well this was an absolute belter, producing a fascinating race and a photo finish to boot. Before the off this did look like one of the most competitive King Georges of recent times with many a Gold Cup hopeful engaged. Indeed coming into the home straight we had Vautour leading, with Cue Card and Don Cossack in close pursuit. However when Don Cossack came crashing down at the 2nd last when coming with a potentially winning run (Timeform have him rated as the top rated horse coming out of the race, as if he would have won if staying upright) it left Vautour and Cue Card to battle it out. And what a battle. Cue Card jumped the last behind but stayed on strongest to pip Ruby Walsh and Vautour by the narrowest of margins, with the judge being required to call the photo finish, When Cue Card was called the winner the crowd burst into cheer, the winner certainly a hugely popular one.

I don't actually think we have seen the Gold Cup winner from this race though. As a ten year old you would have your doubts about Cue Card in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, all the age stats are quite against him. There must be stamina doubts about the narrow runner up as he did seem to get done for stamina up the home straight, an extra 2 furlongs and a testing track do not appear to be what the doctor ordered for Vautour. Don Cossack just doesn't jump well enough under pressure and the rest just aren't good enough. No, for me we must look elsewhere for our Gold Cup winner.


The Lexus Chase, Leopardstown

Don Poli leads Foxrock and First Lieutenant in the Lexus Chase

So do we look over the Irish Sea, to Don Poli, the winner of the Lexus Chase, for our Gold Cup winner? Don Poli, or Don Slowly as he has been nicknamed, provided Willie Mullins with his first winner of the race from a fast finishing First Lieutenant but on paper the form doesn't look much, neither was he visually impressive. However, we have long known from trainer and jockey reports that Don Poli only ever does enough, he is lazy and will do what is required and no more. Therefore until he is really challenged he will never produce a huge time figure, and we should just take each win as it comes. There is no doubt that none of this field, apart from the winner, can really be considered Gold Cup winners but I think from the horses we have seen out over Christmas Don Poli is the one most likely to win the blue riband event in March. He will love the Cheltenham hill, has won at the course before and does have speed, after all he did hose up in the Martin Pipe over two and a half miles. That takes speed, we know he has bags of stamina and as I say if I was to bet one of the horses we have seen in action over the festive period for Cheltenham glory it would be Willie Mullin's Lexus winner.

The rest of the Kempton Action 

It really made me laugh when I saw Sprinter Sacre was pushed out in the market for Champion Chase glory in March after he had just produced a performance full of guts, battle and determination (proving to me he was over his heart issues) to win the Desert Orchid. The course wouldn't have suited yet he still won, there was no sign of a bounce and he saves his best for Cheltenham. This really was another positive performance for me and it was strange, in my opinion, to see his price drift for the 2 mile championship race. However I do absolutely love the horse and this may well have been written with blue and red tinted glasses, but I found it fabulous to see Sprinter and Sire De Grugy producing a cracking finish to entertain the Kempton faithful. Another brilliant race and one to savour.

Lizzie Kelly provided a brilliant human story as she became the first female jockey to win a Grade 1 race on these shores. It was fitting that the horse to partner her to this amazing success was Tea for Two, on whom she has enjoyed many a fine moment, as Lizzie and TFT took the Feltham Novices Chase with a brilliant performance. I don't think it was a brilliant field, and I would be a layer rather than a backer in the RSA if Tea for Two was to turn up there, but on a speed track over an easy 3 miles Tea for Two was very impressive. Lizzie gave him a cracking ride and if you haven't seen it you should seek out channel 4 jockey cam footage to really appreciate the emotion and what this meant to Lizzie, it really pulls at the heartstrings!

Faugheen looked back to his brilliant best when taking the Christmas Hurdle, however the opposition wasn't up to a huge amount and I fancy his biggest competition will come from his own yard in the shape of Nicholls Canyon and Arctic Fire. Still, he comprehensively beat The New One and Hargam, jumping well and looking a far better horse than we saw on seasonal debut. I wouldn't back him now at odds on for the Champion Hurdle, surely he won't be much shorter on the day, but at this stage he is the most likely winner and has been there and done it all before. Give me a free £10 bet and it goes on My Tent or Yours though, who I can't wait to see back out again and for me is value at 25/1 in the hope Henderson can bring him back like he has done with Sprinter and to a lesser extent Bob's Worth and potentially Simonsig.

Just like last year, Faugheen cruises home in the Christmas Hurdle

I don't think we saw anything that can win the Arkle at Kempton, Douvan is head and shoulders above the opposition here, as although he is a very good and brave horse I do not think Ar Mad will be good enough.  If Vaniteux was going to beat him it would have been here I think, at a speed track on good ground, and he couldn't despite heading him towards the finish. Nothing to report in regards to Cheltenham here as Douvan would laugh at this field (not that there is any shame in that!).

Honourable mentions from the Kempton 2 day meet must also go to Altior, who is a definite contender for Supreme glory based on his beating of a good field in the opening race of the meeting. Alter did look in trouble at one stage but stayed on powerfully, in the end putting a good distance between himself and Open Eagle from the WIllie Mullins yard, with the Paul Nicholls pair a distance back in 3rd and 4th. Min may be hard to beat but Nicky Henderson has a useful one to go to war with here, especially as he is already proven round Cheltenham.

And over the Irish Sea

Douvan...wow! On the race of it the Novice's Chase on St Stephen's Day looked a cracker, with Ttebbob , Sizing John and Velvet Maker all in opposition and all capable of giving Douvan a race (well that was the theory). In reality Douvan absolutely laughed at these, destroying each and every one of the opposition and winning as he liked in the end. No doubt about it this horse looks a superstar! Sizing John provided the best opposition but he may well go down the JLT route in order to avoid another clash with Douvan at Cheltenham, while Ttebbob was pulled up and Velvet maker made to look rather pedestrian by the winner who is out of the top draw. Arkle banker material for me, his jumping is electric, he has Cheltenham form and has speed to burn. What more could you want...how about the master Ruby Walsh back on board come March? Oh, go on then!

Point and shoot, Douvan on his way to routing a small but quality field at Leopardstown

Another horse to really impress me was No More Heroes after he romped to glory in a 3 mile Novice's chase on the 29th December. Coming into the home straight No More Heroes was absolutely cruising through the soft ground and there was only one winner of the race, indeed he went on to win by an easy 9 lengths that could have been so much more. I love this horse; he jumps, stays and is all heart and I'll certainly be a backer if he goes for the RSA Chase, 4/1 at the moment but that will be a deal shorter once his festival target is confirmed.

Nicholls Canyon won again, but only by a narrow margin from the vastly improving Identity Thief in the Ryanair Hurdle. Mullins said after it would be hard to impress in this sort of ground and it was good to see him battle, however this didn't quite look the same horse that dispatched Faugheen the last day. Perhaps he needs better ground, it was an absolute bog at Leopardstown when he ran, and I still wouldn't write off his hopes of a Champion Hurdle come March.

Don't miss the run of Tombstone who met defeat over the festive period but make no mistake he is a huge player in the Supreme. Definitely the best horse in the Novice Hurdle he contested at Leopardstown he just got no luck in running and perhaps didn't receive the best of rides but as I say don't give up on him. He is one of my favourite Novice's this season and will surely be making amends for this defeat in time.

Finally before I waffle on for too long I must mention a few juvenile hurdlers. Footpad and Rahsaan had their Triumph Hurdle bubbles burst, while Ivanovich Gorbatov certainly enhanced his claims for the hurdle on the Friday of Cheltenham with a hugely impressive victory over a well backed Willie Mullins horse on ground he would have hated a day after those two had gone pop. On better ground the O'Brien trained juvenile will be an even better horse, and you would fancy him to also improve for this debut run, so quotes of 7/1 for Triumph glory look fair enough to me.


I'm sure to have missed a load of action but there was just so much to fit in and I wanted to mention some of the more notable performances. If you feel I've missed a big horse off, or have an eye-catcher you feel you have unearthed, then please let me know either via twitter (@_Neptune_) or by commenting below!

Thanks for reading!

Alex

Boxing Day Bonanza

I love Christmas....and I love Boxing Day and the feast of racing that comes after the special day. There is so much action, 11 cards in all, so it is a little easy to get overwhelmed and try and take it all in. However I'm going to concentrate on the Kempton card, where I'll be in attendance, and it looks a top card featuring potentially the best chase of the season. The Gold Cup will have to step up to the plate this year to match the King George with Don Cossack (highest rated chaser in training), Vautour (JLT winner seemingly with the world at his feet), Cue Card (Born again Chaser), Silviniaco Conti (2 time winner of the race), Smad Place (Hennessy winner) before we even get to the talented Al Ferof. However more on that whopper of a race later, let's get cracking with the rest of the card.

They will have go go some to match the great Kauto Star in the King George but it looks a top renewal this year

12:50 - Novices Hurdle

A decent race to open the card with Altior, the Nicky Henderson trained horse, currently heading the market at 6/4, skinny enough for me and enough to tempt me elsewhere. I think Open Eagle will run a big race if the heavens open but he will also be plenty short enough given connections. Meet the Legend has his first run over hurdles for top trainer Dan Skelton and gets weight from those with more experience, he also will be guaranteed a pace in this race to go along with so he will be able to get settled and run his race, could certainly see him hitting the frame at 7/1. However my selection is one of the two Paul Nicholls horses in this race, and I'll take Marracudja over Simon Squirrel, just as Sam Twiston-Davies has done. The selection is 2 from 2 since his summer wind operation, and this soft ground over the minimum distance is perfect for him. I fancy Sam to get him out front early on and at a course that really favours front-running horses he will be hard enough to peg back and rates a knocking e/w bet at 4/1. Can't see him out the frame and really fancy him to win.


1:25 - Novices Limited Handicap Chase

A trappy race here, with cases to be made for plenty but hard to find a solid selection. Bekkensfirth will probably head the market down at the bottom of the weights after his chase debut win but he is up 10 lbs for that win and in a competitive race that could be enough to halt his winning run for now. Same can be said for Anthony, who won last time out when his trainer was in absolutely amazing form and with that weight increase could also find this slightly too hot.
Full Shift seems like he has a race in him but is getting a bit frustrating now, however it is interesting to note his last win did come at this track and for all I couldn't recommend a bet on him he would be a shock winner. Germany Calling would prefer a sounder surface, West Wizard was so frustrating over hurdles I have to just let him run here and How About It is up in the weights for a modest 3rd the last day so can be overlooked.
I'm finally getting round to my selection in this race and for me it was hard to choose between Sirabad,  Buckhorn Timothy and Unique De Cotte. The latter comes here on chase debut and could be on a good mark if he makes a better chaser than a hurdler, however Pipe is not in great form and this is enough for me to overlook him. Therefore I come down to Sirabad and Buckhorn Timothy and purely at the prices I make Buckhorn Timothy the selection.  Sirabad will love the ground and ran much better the last day than on debut, I know the stable think a bit of him and I think his mark is definitely winnable. But at over twice the price I'm going for Buckhorn Timothy whose trainer Colin Gizzard is enjoying a fantastic season. The trainer reported he got stuck in the mud a bit at Chepstow the last day, hardly surprising considering how bad the ground can get there, and was a super easy winner the time before that on similar ground to that he will find at Kempton. He goes well round a speedy track like Footwell so Kempton should also suit and he is still on the same mark as his decent but excusable run last time out. At 10/1 he can be bet e/w as I really like his chance of hitting the frame.

2:00 - Kauto Star Novices Chase

A three mile chase for Novices where the market will be headed by Native River and Tea for Two. However I think we can look beyond these two shorties for our selections as I'm not massively convinced that Kempton will play to Native River's strengths, he looks to be all about stamina to me and may get tapped for toe a little round here, while Tea for Two may not quite stay 3 miles, he was pulled up on his last attempt at it, and these doubts are enough to get me looking elsewhere.
Bally Beaufort was narrowly overlooked, he is 2 from 2 over fences and likes this three mile trip, as he may just find this Grade 1 race a bit too much of a step up in class having been winning in Grade 3 races thus far. As De Mee has run well in defeat this season but all his form is over shorter and the same doubts I have over Tea for Two can apply here.
The selection for me here is Southfield Royale for the Neil Mulholland yard, a stable enjoying a really good season and this is a horse I like a lot. He is also a Grace 2 winner, on heavy ground over this trip, so clearly has the stamina required. Prior to that he thrashed the highly rated Zeroshadesofgrey and has enough speed to have won over 2 miles 4 furlongs so I don't doubt his ability to act round here. At an attractive 6/1 Southfield Royal is the bet here.


2:35 - Christmas Hurdle

Reigning Champion Hurdler Faugheen comes here off the back of a shock defeat

A hard enough betting race as the reigning Champion Hurdler Faugheen rocks up here and even after his defeat the last day he is by far an away the most likely winner. However I'm not here to tip up 1/6 shots, especially those who come here on the back of a defeat, and I'll look for some value to follow him home.
I'm not convinced by The New One because of the worries about this Kissing Spine that was troubling him last season. The fact Sam deserts him here, plus Nigel has been fairly vocal that his charge will not be 100% after missing work is enough to get me looking elsewhere. Old Guard is short enough considering this race is a bit of an afterthought and his best form comes at Cheltenham which is a completely different test to the that posed by the Kempton track. Finally Sign of a Victory will hate the ground.
Even though Hargam would much prefer better ground he does act on soft, as proven by his great run in last years Triumph Hurdle on soft ground to finish third. He also ran well the last day to be beaten under 2 lengths by Old Guard, however I think he can turn that form around given he will be more at home and more favoured by the speed test Kempton offers. He is also a much bigger price! At 16/1 Hargam is my e/w play, or even bet him in one of the without the favourite markets. Faugheen should hose up here though.

3:10 - The King George

What a renewal. As previously mentioned the field lining up for this Grade 1 is absolutely top-notch. However there are also doubts over a fair few at the head of the market and I'll outline these as I attempt to justify my position in the race!
Don Cossack looks a rock solid favourite and is the right favourite in my opinion for all he is short enough. His two races this season will have him fit for this and he has won nicely as he was expected to do both times. Having won the Punchestown Gold Cup over 3 miles 1 furlong, and not stopping at the end as he did this, his stamina looks assured and the only slight doubt is the ground; the Don would prefer a sounder surface but does have winning form on soft. Will also be suited by the way the race is run with guaranteed pace in it with so many front running horses. The one they all have to beat.
Vautour is one I want to take on for all he is potentially the most classy of all of these. A brilliant winner of last years JLT at Cheltenham he is very much the sexy horse in the race. However this is quite a step up in trip and his stamina will be stretched as it has never been before especially with the pace angles in this race. The way he jumped out at Ascot the last day was also concerning, he can't have those jumping doubt here as the early pace could have him falling, and we must be concerned that he was abysmal when running at this time of the year last season. For all he could outclass these and be the next Kauto Star there are enough doubts around him for me to want to take him on at around 3/1/
Cue Card seems a totally different horse this year after a well publicised breathing operation over the summer. He has since come out and won twice, the Charlie Hall and the Betfair Chase, and comes here with confidence high. However I cannot help remembering that he has been here a few times before and failed before, even when coming here on the back of winning runs. Could it be that Kempton just doesn't suit him? If breathing was the reason he completely stopped when in front 2 out and let Silvinaco Conti in for the win a few years ago, and that has now been cured, he could run a huge huge race. But I don't want to be branded insane for doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different result and for that reason I'll swerve Cue Card.
Smad Place comes here off the back of an all the way win in the Hennessy, a fantastic win and one which saw an absolutely beautiful display of jumping to boot. When he gets to the front Smad Place is a joy to watch, pinging each fence and showing stamina in bucket loads. If there was less of a contest for the lead in the King George then I would be really keen on Smad, however the fact that Cue Card, Vautour and Silvinaco Conti will all want to lead makes me a bit worried Smad Place won't get the lead he likes that allows him to perform so well. If he gets to the front he will be ultra hard to peg back, and maybe this could be an angle for the in running players, but for me I can't advice Smad pre-race because of this concern.
Silvinaco Conti is a two time winner of this race but hasn't seemed himself this season. This could be because of the issue with his legs that apparently as hindered him in his work in the run up to the Betfair Chase at Haydck but I can't help feeling that this race is much stronger than the renewals in which Conti was a winner. His first win in the race came when Cue Card completely stopped in front when looking a surefire winner, the 2nd came when beating the likes of Dynaste and a non-stayer in Champagne Fever. Fair play to Conti for winning this race twice before but I think this renewal will be far too strong for him, for all I could see his undoubted stamina allowing him to reach the frame especially if the ground is very soft.
Al Ferof is a horse best fresh, so for all he was impressive in winning the Peterborough Chase last time out I think he would have run better in this race if he had missed that race and come here fresh. However it could be that Dan Skelton is training him in a way that Nicholls didn't, I've read stuff about underwater treadmills and the like, but he has come up short in this race many a time before and may not have the stamina required for the 3 mile trip, especially with the pace in this race. He is one I can happily pass over.
Valseur Lido ran a really nice run on reappearance, running over a trip that is likely to be too short (should improve for this step up in trip in my opinion) to finish a staying on 2nd behind Djakadam, beating the likes of Clarcam and Gilgamboa who would be more at home over 2 miles 4 furlongs. That run will have him spot on for this race, 3 miles round Kempton will suit him down to a tee from what we have seen so far and he also acts on soft ground. Certainly won't be getting involved in the contest for the lead and I can see him staying on into a place.
Irish Cavalier has been thrashed by Valseur Lido before and if I was looking for an e/w bet I'd rather be on Valseur Lido, especially with VL more suited by this stamina test in my opinion. Lastly Ballynagour should not be good enough on all known form and ran shockingly last time out.

So to summarise my thoughts on the race Don Cossack is my win bet, he looks totally solid at the head of the market and has the least amount of chinks in his armoury from what I can see.
Valseur Lido is my fancy to run well at a big price and stay on into a place.

King George Win selection Don Cossack

3:45 - Handicap Hurdle

After all he excitement (hopefully) of this King George we end with a decent little handicap hurdle and I'll take 2 against the field here.
Sugar Baron is quite exciting here for the Henderson yard but the stable are not in the best of form, they have only had 20 or so runners in the whole of December which is tiny for the yard, and at 4/1 in a 16 runner field, on seasonal debut, he is short enough. If the yard were firing in the winners I'd be much more interested but I'll let him run here. You fancy Gunner Fifteen will be a short price as well for Harry Fry, a yard who actually are in flying form, but for my selections I'll be going bigger prices.
The first pick is Little Boy Boru for Suzy Smith. Little Boy Boru ran at Kempton in a C&D handicap in January last year on soft ground, finishing 2nd to Tea for Two and beating the likes of Del Arca so decent form. He is actually now 6 lbs below the mark he performed so credibly from and back at the course he clearly likes I can see him outrunning his price of 25/1.
The second selection is Keltus for Paul Nicholls. He has had one of the famous breathing operations over the summer, which apparently held him back a bit, so his comeback run at Sandown the other day will have been much needed. He will surely come on a bundle for that run and I think this may be the season he realises the high hopes the stable had for him a few years back. If the breathing operation has worked the oracle then 16/1 rates a knocking e/w bet. I'm sure you will permit me two goes at the race when they are 25 and 16/1!


Boxing Day Kempton

12:50 Marracudja
1:25 Buckhorn Timothy
2:00 Southfield Royal
2:35 Hargam e/w
3:10 Don Cossack win, Valseur Lido e/w
3:45 Little Boy Boru e/w and Keltus e/w

And there we have it! The Kempton card in full, let's just hope there are a few winners in there to accompany an absolutely belting day of sport this Boxing Day.
Enjoy and Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all!

Alex