A few Cheltenham Horses

With Cheltenham less than 9 weeks away now and the action on the track being effected heavily by the weather recently I thought I would take a little time to outline some of the horses I want to be backing ante-post for the Cheltenham Festival. These are not the horses I think will definitely win at Cheltenham, just the ones I think offer very good ante-post value. Let me know what you think and if you agree or disagree!

Tombstone - Supreme Novices Hurdle

Tombstone is a huge price at 20/1

I think Gordon Elliott's horse is massive e/w value at 20/1 for the Festival opener. He was the best horse in the race the last day when just beaten by Long Dog in the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle. He just got no luck in running that day, for all the winner is a good horse, and the Gigginstown boys have said they will be hooding him ahead of his appearance in the Deloitte Novices Hurdle in Feb. I reckon that will see him improve again and fancy he will win the Deloitte, after which 20/1 will quickly evaporate and I think it'll be single figures about Tombstone for the Supreme. Take the 20/1 which gives great e/w value against the red hot favourite Min.

Garde La Victoire - Arkle

16/1 looks a big price for Garde La Victoire in the Arkle, considering he has won his last 4 races, including a C&D win over fences back in November, beating the likes of Fox Norton and Bristol De Mai (decent yardsticks) in decisive fashion. He will get further than the bare 2 miles which I like for the Arkle, especially considering the pace this will likely be run at and the Cheltenham Hill at the end of the race. There is a bit of uncertainty about his target, Arkle or JLT, but I'm prepared to take the risk for the reward of a lovely price for a horse with proven course form, proven distance form, stamina and a lovely willingness to battle and fight.

Cole Harden - World Hurdle

The reigning World Hurdle Champion

This horse comes alive in the spring on good ground, so even though he has not been a winner so far this season do not be put off by that. The ground has been unsuitable on both his runs so far this season but his wise trainer Warren Greatrex was apparently thrilled with his run at Cheltenham the last day when well beaten by Camping Ground. Come March, on better ground, the current World Hurdle Champion will be extremely hard to keep out the frame and looks a great e/w play at 9/1

Diamond King - Martin Pipe

Donald McCain will have been loath to lose Diamond King from his yard

Hello Gordon Elliott handicap project. He didn't run in the Ladbroke hurdle in this country, instead running in a little low key Hurdle race at Punchestown, because Gordon is a clever man and knows what it takes to win a handicap over in England! Sent to Gordon from Donald McCain (with a big reputation as an unfulfilled talent) on an incredible mark it has taken a couple of runs for Gordon to get him winning but now he has I think there is only 1 race for Diamond King. Gordon has confirmed the Martin Pipe is his target and the current 10/1 should be taken as I think this horse will go off much shorter once it gets backed in the weeks running up to the festival. He will have the assistance of top jockey Jack Kennedy on the day of the race as well, something that cannot be underestimated. However it has been pointed out to me by Adam Webb (@AdamWebb121 on twitter) that "I wouldn't back Diamond King yet as it's viable he could be handicapped out of the race & end up in the Coral Cup". I've backed him because I think he will go off a hell of a lot shorter if he races in the Martin Pipe, but I guess thats ante-post betting for you!

Doctor Harper - Unsure but one to watch (Alright, not an ante-post bet!)

This horse is an absolute classic David Pipe handicap plot. Beaten in his last 2 runs by L'ami Serge and Garde La Victoire, how harsh can the handicapper be? He was never put in the race the last day but ran into 2nd place close home and looks a banker to improve markedly up in trip which I am certain will happen come March. Not sure which handicap will be the target but if you want to take a chance and pick a race let me know what you go for!

Ante-Post view on the Welsh National

Well after a feast of action over the Christmas and New Year period we've got a quiet few days and I thought I would use this to have a quick look at the Welsh National next week. Obviously we don't have final decs through yet but we can be sure of a few things. 1) The ground will be soft to heavy 2) The trip is 3 miles 5 1/2 furlongs....3) Stamina is required and in bucket loads! So we want to be looking for horses that act on the ground, have form over an extreme distance and ideally something that will turn up!  Prior to the race being called off the Racing Post did help us a bit more by publishing some key trends for the race. These were

Aged 6 to 8 years old: 10/10 (Adjust this to 7-9 years old for the race this year)
Two or fewer runs since the end of September: 9/10
Top 4 finish last time out: 9/10
Previous win over at least 3 miles: 9/10
BHA Rating between 131 and 147: 7/10
Ten or fewer previous starts over fences: 7/10
Weight carried no more than 10.08: 7/10
Previous win at Chepstow (hurdles or fences): 6/10

So armed with that bit of help I'll get to work and try and find a selection or two.

Theatre Guide

Theatre guide is the first of my ante-post picks. Colin Tizzard's horse ran a great race in the Newbury Hennessy to finish a staying on 2nd to Smad Place, the runaway winner. He has run twice since September, so should be fairly fresh, and is 9 years of age, fitting the age stat. Obviously his 2nd place the last day in the Hennessy, over 3 miles 2 furlongs on soft ground, ticks out top 4 finish stat, and all of a sudden we are starting to look OK on the trends boxes! I was really impressed with Theatre Guide that day and he wasn't stopping at the end so this is one horse I am fairly confident of staying the trip. He has had more than his fair share of starts over fences, 16 all in all, but you could deem that good experience if you were looking with a positive slant on things! He has also won at Chepstow way back in 2011 over hurdles so the track should hold no fears. Theatre Guide was definitely a runner for the race before it was cancelled so I see no reason, and have read nothing from Colin, that would indicate he wouldn't be engaged this time.

One thing that worries me is his jumping, he can be a bit sloppy and that could find him out over the numerous fences at the Welsh National, but he last fell in February 2013 so it shouldn't worry us too much. I'd also have liked some winning form over a 3 mile trip but if Smad Place hand't been thrown in the Hennessy off a mark of 155 he would have gained a win there and be far higher in the handicap as a result.

All in all Theatre Guide looks a nice e/w bet as I am confident of him running into a place, and if his jumping holds up well enough to allow him to hold his position I could see the horse running a big race at 16/1.

Theatre Guide comes here off the back of a cracking run in the Hennessy

O'Faolains Boy

This horse could be absolutely thrown in off his mark of 150 and I can't go into the race without having a bet on him. The worry is that Rebecca Curtis won't run him here, he was taken out of the race previously as it was thought he hadn't sufficiently recovered his win at Newbury the last day, where he defeated Sausalito Sunrise as he liked, but with the extra time now provided by the rescheduling of the race hopefully he will come here.

Some of the form O'Faolains Boy has in his book is absolutely top class, he is an RSA Chase winner proving he has guts and stamina to match his class, is a winner at this course on heavy going before, loves the heavy ground he will encounter and has 3 chase wins from 7 runs all around the 3 mile trip so really should have a great chance of staying the distance here.

He is 9 years old, has only run twice since September, won last time out (a top 4 finish clearly), has won over 3 miles, has won at Chepstow before and has only had 7 runs over fences; so many of the key trends are ticked by Curtis's horse it would be criminal if he doesn't turn up! Rebecca rates this horse as Gold Cup class and off a mark of 150 (due to be rated 154 in the future) he could potentially hose up here.

Understandably you may be concerned by his comeback run, where he was pulled up after over a year off the track, but the way he bounced back from that, thrashing Sausalito Sunrise who had previously won at Cheltenham really nicely, should calm those fears. At a price of 12/1 O'Faolains Boy is a confident selection, the only concern being his participation in the race! If his participation is confident I expect this price to come crashing down so will take the gamble and back him now.

O'Faolains Boy could be absolutely chucked in the Welsh National in my opinion

Those are the two I will go to war with at the moment. Honourable mentions must go to last years winner Emperors Choice, Shotgun Paddy who went of favourite for that race and previous winner Mountainous, indeed I may go back in later in the week and add to my duo of runners, but for now I'm happy with Theatre Guide at 16/1 and O'Faolains Boy at 12/1.