The Aintree Hurdle

Elsewhere on the blog you can find my preview of the Betfred Bowl on the first day of the Aintree festival and here I will preview another cracking race on the opening day of the Grand National Meeting; the Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle. This Grade 1 hurdle is run over a distance of 2 miles 4 furlong offering a race which doesn't actually feature on the Cheltenham roster making this a fascinating clash and this year's renewal is no different. You see horses who have run in the Champion Hurdle having a go at a slightly longer trip, but on a flatter track, competing against horses who may have had a go at the World Hurdle or perhaps even a handicap at the festival bringing together all sorts of different form lines. This year we even have failed chasers coming back over timber!

Willie Mullin's crack hurdling mare Annie Power is one of those who looks set to step back down in distance here after going over the 3 mile World Hurdle trip at Cheltenham and while she looked like she stayed that trip well on previous form you must fancy the step back down in trip to be in her favour. She has won over this trip and shorter this season, thrashing last year's winner Zarkandar on a couple of occasions already this year and comes into this race with a huge chance. Unfortunately regular pilot Ruby Walsh won't be on board this time having suffered a nasty injury at Cheltenham but I doubt Willie will be short of options as he looks for a temporary pilot for this exciting young mare. However she certainly won't have things all her own way as an equally exciting horse The New One makes the step up in trip from the 2 miles of the Champion Hurdle. Nigel Twiston-Davies charge did appear to be the hard luck story of that race as the ill fated Our Conor fell in front of him at the third hurdle in that race, hampering The New One badly, and the way The New One was staying on at the finish a) made it look like he would have gone really close to winning without that interference and b) made it look like an extra 4 furlongs could be well within his stamina range. 

Grumeti, Hurricane Fly (although he will probably miss this in favour of Punchestown), Melodic Rendezvous and Ptit Zig all also contested the Champion Hurdle and will be joined here by Ex-Champion Hurdler Rock on Ruby who returns to hurdles after a failed attempt at a chasing career and has finished 3rd in this race before, as does Nicky Henderson's Grandouet after contesting the Arkle chase at Prestbury Park. Whisper, Rule the World and Diakali all also ran at Cheltenham, leaving Irish Saint as the only runner in the field who didn't actually run at the Cheltenham festival in March.

My fancy for this race is Annie Power, although it will be a really exciting battle with The New One and one I am really looking forward to seeing. The New One finished 2nd to Zarkandar in this race last year and on that formline Annie Power should have the beating of him as she has beaten that horse twice this season. Annie gets a 7lbs in weight from TNO in this race, a huge amount and an absolute gift. Annie Power has won over this trip already this season as well has trips below and above this so looks to be tactically versatile, with both the stamina for a truly run race and also the speed to quicken off a slower pace. It is unfortunate that Ruby can't take the ride but Paul Townend will have ridden work on her more times that you've had hot dinners and I presume he will take the ride here. He will know this horse inside out and is an extremely capable pair of hands so I'm not too worried about the jockey change. Annie Power was top rated by Timeform on their weight adjusted ratings for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham before she was taken out of the race and will surely be top rated here. I think the mare will win this race, with The New One filling 2nd place again as he did in 2013. Melodic Rendezvous will again give his running and is taken to fill 3rd place.

1-Annie Power

2-The New One

3-Melodic Rendezvous

Aintree on the Horizon, a look at the Betfred Bowl

Even though the Flat made a return to our screens this weekend I don't really get turned on by the summer code until at least the Aintree meeting is out of the way. After Doncaster this weekend we have Monday through to Thursday next week without any turf flat action so to me it seems a real start/stop beginning of the season, especially when we have a cracking meeting at Aintree starting on Thursday, and it starts with a few cracking races on the first day of their three day meeting which I'll have a look at in a few blogs this week. One thing to consider before we look at the races at Aintree is if you want to be backing horses who have had a hard race at Cheltenham only three weeks previous to this. It isn't just the race but the occasion of Cheltenham which can really take it out of a horse and Paul Nicholls, a multiple champion trainer, admitted in a recent feature on the betting.betfair website that often he cannot know before Aintree whether a horse will have fully recovered or not. He went on to say that it is often a case of just letting some horses take their chance, if they have a bad race its the end of the season anyway and if they run well then all the better but it will still be the end of their season, you basically have nothing to lose. As punters we certainly can lose by backing these horses though! Another thing to bear in mind is that the tests posed by the Aintree track are far different to those Cheltenham will throw up; it is a flatter track which can put less of a test on stamina and more on speed which will obviously suit different horses. This offers the potential opportunity of redemption for horses which disappointed at Cheltenham, and there are certainly a few of those lining up on the first day at Aintree so lets have a look at what we can expect on the 3rd April.

The first big race up is the Betfred Bowl at 2:30, a Grade 1 contest over 3 miles 1 furlong. This race is often seen as an ideal way for horses to step up in distance from what they have been competing over at Cheltenham due to the flatter nature of the track, or for horses who may not have quite seen out the Gold Cup trip to gain redemption, and this year is no different. We have one horse with excellent Cheltenham form here, with the Ryanair winner Dynaste stepping up in trip, and the way he was finishing off his Cheltenham race certainly made it seem as if David Pipe's grey will appreciate this trip. Representing decent form from the Gold Cup we have the aforementioned Paul Nicholls Silviniaco Conti who travelled like an absolute dream at Cheltenham before getting done by three fast finishers after the last, however the way he won at King George in December did not indicate he is a horse who needs less of a test of stamina. Furthermore he also looks like needing soft ground to be at his best and the way the weather is going I just can't see Silviniaco getting the ground he needs to show his best. He may well have been inconvenienced by the lack of pace in the Gold Cup that day but I think this season has been a long one for Conti now and I'm prepared to rule him out of this race, especially at the likely price.
Medermit (beaten miles by Dynaste at Cheltenham in the Ryanair), First Lieutenant (withdrawn on the day of the Gold Cup),Boston Bob (suffered the same fate as Medermit), Menorah & Rathlin (See Boston Bob and Medermit), Houblon Des Obeaux (Beaten 24L in the Gold Cup) and Wishful Thinking (Beaten 13L by Sire De Grugy in the Champion Chase) all also come here from Cheltenham seeking a bit of end-of-season redemption leaving only a few horses that come here fresh (remember to include First Lieutenant in those). Of those Argocat has some decent Grade 2 form in the book but nothing amazing, Carruthers' best form is over further and at 11 time is hardly on his side and Roi Du Mee and Toner D'Oudaries have all their best form on soft ground so I think we can rule these out as well. This basically leaves my shortlist for the Betfred Bowl at Dynaste, First Lieutenant and Unioniste of which my favourite for this is Dynaste. Dynaste has previous form around the Aintree course winning over the distance last year in a Novices chase, goes on decent ground and his form in the book is excellent barring his King George performance for which physical reasons were found to be behind that flop. So looking at this season he has that flop but then the grey was only beaten by Cue Card on his reappearance at Haydock this season over this trip, beating Silviniaco Conti, Long Run, Tidal Bay and Bobs Worth, and then routed the field at Cheltenham last time out. Trainer David Pipe is showing no signs of easing off this season and I've also been impressed by Tom Scudamore of late. Scudamore produced some great rides at Cheltenham including an absolute belter in the Arkle on Western Warhorse and having him in the saddle adds to my confidence behind Dynaste. I really like Dynaste for this race, I think he actually won at Cheltenham quite easily in the end and hopefully that will lead to him being a bit fresher for this assignment. The step up in trip obviously is within his compass as previous form shows and he is definitely of Grade 1 class.
First Lieutenant will give him the most to think about in my opinion and also has previous Aintree form as well as some decent runs this season. The probable good ground will be in his favour as well, I just think Dynaste has more potential with the step back up in trip. Unioniste can complete the first three home here for Paul Nicholls beating his more fancied stablemate in the process.

My Betfred Bowl 1,2,3

1-Dynaste
2-First Lieutenant
3-Unioniste

An Early Look at the Grand National

As Cheltenham ends its hard to believe that the Grand National is less than 2 weeks away now, around this time of the year we have some quality flat racing action mixed in with the jumps and it is hard to keep fully focused on the jumps. However it's certainly made a bit easier when we have the biggest jumps race of the year, certainly in the public eye if not in the purist eye, on the horizon. Being able to give your mates the winner of this race guarantees you a few free pints down the pub as well as plenty of kudos so lets get stuck into it.

The race could certainly revolve around those at the head of the weights, particularly Tidal Bay and Long Run, extremely classy horses who have been given a real chance at the weights by Paul Smith, who likes to tempt the classier horses into the race by giving them less weight than they would usually carry in a handicap. However with £1,000,000 in prize money up for grabs whether he really should need to do this is up for debate. Tidal Bay has a whopping 7lbs less than he would usually carry in this contest and as such he must have a real chance, especially given his cracking runs in the Lexus and Welsh National so far this season. Sam Twiston-Davies will take the mount and he has winning experience on the enigmatic Tidal Bay, however I'm unsure if his running style, held up usually only involving himself towards the end of the race, will suit the Grand National. With 40 runners and 30 fences to jump over a grueling 4 miles 3&1/2 furlongs running round at the back of the field makes you somewhat a prisoner to fortune. Although the fences have been modified and made easier to jump thanks to plenty of animal rights activists getting involved in the sport there will still be fallers and horses fading backwards through the field at a rapid rate and Tidal Bay will probably be inconvenienced multiple times in the race. Currently available at 16/1 there is no doubt Tidal Bay has a great chance at the weights, he is a classy proven Grade 1 animal who seems better than ever in the twilight years of his career. I am just a little unsure that his running style will not suit the unique nature of this race and although I may have a punt on him just because I love the horse he isn't a recommended bet for the race.

Long Run has been the subject of some positive talk from jockey Sam Waley-Cohen on the morning line recently and has been chopped into 16/1 for the race, the same price as Tidal Bay. However it has been a while since we saw Long Run run to his best and he does seem regressive in recent seasons, his only win since his out of the fire effort to take the King George in 2013 coming in a class 2 chase at 2/5 favourite. Couple this with the awful jumping we have seen Long Run come up with over regulation fences in recent times means he is also passed over.

Teaforthree currently heads the market and is as short as 9/1 in places, ridiculously short in my opinion. He ran really well here last season to finish third and carries 5lbs less than he did in 2013 so does appear to have an obvious chance at the weights. At the 25/1 available when the weights were released he rated a cracking bet, hindsight is a marvelous thing though and a good run at Ascot since then have seen that price long disappear. I'm also slightly concerned he ran in the Gold Cup only 3 weeks before the big race at Aintree and it is hard to believe that he will have recovered fully from that race in my opinion. It's not just running in the Gold Cup, its the whole Cheltenham Occasion, and I don't really understand why Curtis sent Teaforthree there. Without that race I'd be more positive on his chances, and especially at the current price I can also pass Teaforthree over.

This really is a hugely competitive renewal of the race and the strength in depth is tremendous. Hunt Ball, Trio D'Alene, Burton Port, Roi Du Mee, Walkon the list classy horses entered in this year's renewal goes on and on. However there are a couple I'll make an early case for in the hope we see them line up and go well in the big one on the 5th April.

Firstly I like the chances of Monbeg Dude, a previous Welsh National winner so while we cannot be assured he will get the trip his stamina looks to stand him in good stead - put a tick in that box. Monbeg Dude's jumping has also improved hugely in recent times thanks to schooling sessions with Zara Philips and I really like the fact that Aintree has been the target for this horse all season long and possibly longer. Trainer Michael Scudamore has brushed off his defeat up at Doncaster last time out leaving the public in no doubt that that run was all part of the bigger picture in the run up to Aintree and I believe he will have the services of Paul Carberry in the saddle. You could argue that Monbeg Dude will suffer from the same traffic problems as Tidal Bay but we've seen him ridden closer up recently and that may well be with this race in mind. He looks to be on a lovely racing weight of 10-9 currently and at 20/1 rates as a solid ante-post wager.

A few more to check out for you in addition to my main fancy at this stage, after all it is a 40 runner race, are firstly Soll who at number 51 is not guaranteed a run in the race but could sneak in right at the bottom of the handicap and could be worth support at 50/1. Soll gets the trip and jumps the fences as proven by his 7th placed finish last year, the fact hew also has form around Sandown which takes some jumping is also encouraging, and he has the same weight to carry if he gets in this year. Proven form round here is huge, as shown by the Aintree factor Phil Smith factors into the weights allocated to horses, so Soll is in my mind for this race and I'll be watching closely to see if he gets in.

Finally I'll put up Alan King's Godsmejudge, a past winner of the Scottish version of this race who is set to carry 10-11 at Aintree. His reappearance run this year after the enforced break taken by the King yard resulted in him being pulled up, however it may well have been that King just hand't been able to get enough work into Godsmejudge at that point but just wanted to get a run in so that he didn't come straight to Aintree without any sort of prep. That run will have been 7 weeks ago by the time the 40 runners are set on their way, an ideal length of time for King to get some good work into Godsmejudge and at 28/1 is a good price at the moment. The King yard are going really well at the moment and as the season goes on and horses have been on the go a long time the break that the yard took in winter could prove beneficial in terms of freshness and energy levels compared to some yards who have been going non-stop since October.

Thats it for a longish range look at the Grand National, however as the big race draws closer and we get a better idea of the definite field and jockey bookings I'll be back with a further preview. Thanks for reading!

Round up of the rest of Cheltenham 2014

Well we've had the first week of standard racing back under our belts since the amazing week that was the Cheltenham festival and hopefully the post-fest blues are dying down now. After I rounded up the Tuesday of the festival in depth in my previous blog I thought I'd go over the other days now and pick out a few key performances that really caught the eye.

The blue riband event of the festival, the Gold Cup, went to a trainer who's change of fortunes come festival time was astonishing! Without a winner since August Jim Culloty sent two horses to the festival and came back with two winners, some strike rate! Lord Windermere, last years RSA winner, came into this race fairy unfancied, with Bob's Worth (last years winner) and Silviniaco Conti heading the market. In fact coming over the last there were 6 horses all in a line, all in with a chance, and it was Davy Russel and Lord Windermere who grabbed their chance the hardest and got over the line first. However the drama continued post race with a stewards inquiry called, there was a fair bit of interference caused when the winner drifted across the eventual runner up On His Own. The result stood but there were plenty of conflicting opinions post race as to if the interference was enough to get the result overturned. My point of view is that I would hate to see the winner of a race of this calibre decided in the stewards room, however when the margin of victory is a shoulder and the winning rider has been found guilty of careless riding then you really have to feel sorry for the runner up who can be classed as an extremely very unlucky loser. I wouldn't really fancy the winner to follow up in next year's renewal, as Bob's Worth and the history books show this is an extremely difficult task, however take nothing away from Lord Windermere as he obviously loves Cheltenham and comes alive at this time of the year. Bob's Worth looked in with every chance but seemed to hang alarmingly got done by the top three for a turn of pace in what turned out to be a slowly run race. This years Gold Cup was only 6 seconds faster than the foxhunters race run over C&D which is the smallest differential for many a year. Silviniaco traveled like a dream once again, however he like BW might have appreciated Cue Card in the race to ensure a stronger pace.At 9&8 years of age respectively you couldn't rule out either from next year's race and they are both towards the head of the ante-post market for the 2015 race. It does look ripe for a young contender to enter the frame and I would love to see Champagne Fever step up to the plate. He is a horse with the pace for 2 miles and jumps beautifully but would surely appreciate a step up in trip and if I were to have a bet now he would be my early fancy. The RSA winner O'Faolins Boy will hopefully come to this race in 2015 as well and will be looking to continue the recent record of RSA winners in this race, and if More of That,Cue Card, Dynaste and Taquin De Seuil enter the frame we look sure to be in for an absolute belter of a renewal...however I must stop getting too excited as we've got a year to go and plenty of water to come under the bridge before then!

In that wishful thinking in regards to next year's Gold Cup I mentioned some other winners of races at the Festival this year. Dynaste didn't have to run to his best to win the Ryanair chase but the way he was going at the end of the race looked like he would be ready to have another go back up in trip and connections have been sounding like that is the plan for this gorgeous grey, starting at Aintree in a couple of weeks time. The 2nd from the Ryanair, Hidden Cyclone, ran really well considering this trip is definitely short of what he wants and will be one to follow if he goes back up in trip for the Punchestown festival. Al Ferof was the disappointment of the race for me and it looks like unfortunately he isn't the same horse he was before his injury last year.

Taquin De Seuil was one horse that I managed to back successfully this year at the festival and you can count the others that joined him on one hand! Not my most spectacular punting experience! He was a really brave winner under an equally brave AP McCoy who was hobbling before and after the race which just shows you how determined the Champ was to get a winner at the festival and just how important it is to even the most successful and experienced of jockeys - that's why he's the Champ! Another horse to wow the crowds on Thursday was More of That who managed to give 7lbs and a beating to the exciting mare Annie Power in the World Hurdle. This race really was a cracker and 4 time champion Big Bucks just wasn't up to the task sadly, however he was retired with all his dignity in tact and will be remembered as the greatest staying hurdler we have ever seen. Annie Power put to bed the debate over whether she would stay the 3 mile trip, she definitely did, but was just beaten by a better horse over this distance. It will be interesting what Willie Mullins does with Annie Power, if Quevega is retired she could mop up the Mares Hurdle for years to come or she could maybe even step back in trip to contest the Champion Hurdle next year - I'd definitely rather watch the latter of those two options. With the Mullins hurdle string including Briar Hill, Faugheen and Vautour for next year the debate over the right races for these horses, and indeed who should be sent over a fence, will certainly keep us going over the summer months before it all starts again next Autumn. However the impressive nature of More of That's win should not be forgotten and it was interesting to see AP McCoy quoted as claiming More of That was his best chance of a 2nd Gold Cup winner. Whether that comes next year or whether we see More of That try and regain his staying hurdle crown I'm not sure of but he is certainly another extremely exciting horse for the future.


Possibly the most popular winner of the race, certainly judging on the post race scenes, was the win of Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother Champion Chase on the Wednesday. It seemed like every man and his dog was out to get Gary Moore's stable star beat however he was a really impressive and deserved winner of the Champion Chase. It was great to see Jamie Moore get his first Cheltenham winner and the scenes afterwards, when he was given a semi-guard of honor from the other jockeys, were great to see. I just hope we get to see a clash between Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grudy next year, but make no mistake about it there should be no question over the validity of SDG's win in this race and his record this season shows him to be a deserved Champion. He has won the Tingle Creek, the Ascot race and now the Queen Mother - connections would certainly have taken that pre-season! Wednesday also saw Faugheen take the Neptune Hurdle under the classic Walsh-Mullins combination and this horse looks to have some future. The way he made a mistake at the 2nd last yet still came back on the bridle marks him out as a horse of tremendous ability and one another for the all conquering Mullins stable who looks to have a great future ahead of him. And as mentioned when taking of next year's Gold Cup O'Faolains Boy took the RSA by a neck from Smad Place, great too see Rebecca Curtis get this one back from a very disappointing run earlier in the season to claim some glory on the biggest stage of all for Jumps racing. The runner up Smad Place has now placed in World Hurdles and an RSA chase around Cheltenham so he will also be one to follow for next year given his love for the place.

I could go on for many more paragraphs about the festival, it really was a spectacular one in terms of drama and racing performances. However as thoughts now move on the the Grand National and Punchestown, as well as the return of the flat action, I'll wrap up this year's thoughts on Cheltenham and move on to the Cheltenham website to purchase my tickets for next year...bring it on!

Cheltenham - What a week! A look back on my visit to the track on Tuesday

Well its the Saturday following the best 4 days of jumps racing of the year for me and what a festival Cheltenham was this year. We saw some great performances, returning Champions, new Champions and some incredibly close finishes - all in 4 days work for Presbury Park! From a personal point of view I loved my first visit to the home of jumps racing, I went on the Tuesday and while it wasn't a huge success in terms of punting (had a couple of e/w pokes land) it was a fantastic day out and great to see Quevega continue her winning run.
The Champion Hurdle was a huge shock, I saw Jezki drift out to 10/1 on course and didn't even consider having a bean on him. I was hugely behind Our Conor and had a bit on the Fly just so I could join in the celebrations if the wonderful hurdler could win a 3rd Champion Hurdle. Midway through the race and the writing was on the wall. There was the hugely sad news of Our Conor's demise and thoughts go out to all involved with the horse, while My Tent Or Yours was travelling like an absolute dream...I knew the fate of my money but couldn't have seen the winner not being MTOY's. However Jezki was delivered in the home straight to take the glory and Barry Geraghty was celebrating a dream of a spare ride! As an afterthought to this race I'd love to see MTOY go over a fence in his career, hopefully it would stop him being so keen as he was pulling McCoy's arms out early doors in the race,
We then saw the wondermare Quevega win the Mares hurdle, but not without a scare or two from her stablemate in the home straight before she managed to assert late on. I wonder if Willie Mullins will try for a seventh win next year or draw stumps on this wonderful horse's career. It really is some achievement getting a horse to the festival 6 years in a row, let alone winning with it, and make no mistake about it this is a wonderful training feat from the Irish Champion trainer.
Before all this we saw a great front running ride from the masterful Ruby Walsh on Vautour in the Supreme Novices hurdle, where he lead from pillar to post, kicking on as they rounded the home turn and to be honest nothing else was allowed to get into the race. Vautour looks to have some future when he goes over a fence, interestingly Mullin's said that Vautour was in a 'different league' to his Neptune winner Faugheen and he will be one of the brightest stars of next season make no mistake. This was also an absolute classic Walsh front running ride, similar to the one he gave Champagne Fever in last years renewal, and it was no surprise to see Ruby crowned top jockey at the festival again this year, even after his crashing fall and resulting injury on the final day. Injuries to Ruby, Cooper, Jacobs and co all serve as a reminder of what tremendously brave sportspeople jockeys are and the work the Injured Jockeys Fund do should not be forgotten. Hats off to them and we wish the jockeys injured at Cheltenham to quickest of recoveries.
A final mention on Tuesday must go to Western Warhorse, a shock 33/1 winner of the Arkle. A huge well done if you managed to pick this one! It looked like Walsh was going to replicate his ride in the first in this race as Champagne Fever was leading late on, only for Tom Scudamore to show perfect timing to produce his mount to take the lead literally on the line and win this race for the Pipe yard who enjoyed a great festival this year. Trifolum was jumping well, even with the burden of my cash on him, but never looked like winning when we got into the business stage of the race. Rock on Ruby's jumping went to pot here, how Fehily stayed on to complete this race is beyond me, and I'm not sure where Fry will go from here with him. The only thing I can think of is a trip to Yogi Breisner to see if the schooling master can work his magic!
Literally the only negative to my day at Cheltenham was the wait either side of the car park! It took a good hour to get in and out of the official car park, maybe next year I'll have some successful punts leading up to the festival and be able to ride in on a helicopter! That really was the definition of arriving in style but would be a touch beyond my budget for the day!

Gold Cup Day

The Cheltenham festival comes to a climax tomorrow and its been a great festival so far. We've seen the great Big Bucks retired, David Pipe in red-hot form, some great performances by some Mullin's youngsters and generally some great racing. Lets take a look at the final day now - Cheltenham we will miss you!

1.30 Triumph Hurdle - Take a chance on Royal Irish Hussar on this better ground. Has smart form in the book on a decent surface including the beating of a big rival Guitar Pete round Cheltenham back in November. He can be forgiven his latest run, it was his 3rd run in fairly quick succession, and should go well here on the back of a nice break.

2.05 County Hurdle - Arctic Fire. Walsh and Mullins have had a decent festival so far and Arctic Fire looks to have been laid out for the County Hurdle on his handicap debut. He brings solid grade 1 form to the table for this handicap and could be on a decent mark. You'd have to think so anyway given Mullins has hidden him away since December and with Walsh on board you can be sure he will be given every chance in this.

2.40 Albert Bartlett - Briar Hill. Even though the price has long gone all the noises coming out of the Mullins camp are extremely bullish regarding this Novice's chance. Patrick Mullins said during preview nights that Briar Hill could have won any of the Novice hurdles and given the Mullins camp have won 2/2 so far that is pretty positive! Briar Hill only ever does just enough in his races so we don't know how good he could be but lets hope we see a great performance out of him tomorrow. He has course and festival experience winning the Champion Bumper last year and this unbeaten novice can carry all before him tomorrow. Urban Hymn could go well at a big price.

3.20 Gold Cup - Last Instalment. This doesn't look a vintage Gold Cup and I think we could see Bob's Worth dethroned here by the classy but injury prone Last Installment. Brian O'Connell has struck up a great partnership with this horse and he was really impressive last time routing the field in the Irish Hennessy from the front with a great display of jumping. He can be expected to improve for that run and his jumping will stand him in good stead here. The ground isn't an issue as long as he is allowed to take his chance on it, the only reason there is any doubt is because of his injury history, not because he doesn't act on it.

4.00 Foxhunters - I don't pretend to have much knowledge of this sort of race so as a token selection I'll put up Harbour Court.

4.40 Martin Pipe, the boys race - The Skyfarmer. He was looking a really impressive novice, boasting winning Cheltenham form, before a disappointing run last time out on ground that would have been too soft for his liking. Back on better ground with the useful James Best on board he can provide Philip Hobbs with another festival handicap winner to go with Fingal Bay on Thursday.

5.15 Grand Annual - Raya Star. This horse will absolutely love the frenetic pace of the Grand Annual and can end the festival on a good note for Alan King whose horses have been running pretty well with Midnight Prayer their only success so far. His 2nd to Dodging Bullets here back in November is decent form and he was rated as highly as 159 over hurdles so his mark of 149 here could be lenient.

Tuesday Selections

After months of waiting its finally here! Here are my selections for Tuesday - best of luck to all of you!

1.30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle - The Liquidator. Overpriced on all his form before the Tolworth disappointment which was too bad to be true. Has Cheltenham form and some top class bumper form from last season to boot.

2.05 - Arkle Chase - Trifolium. Doesn't need it soft, he's come 3rd in a Supreme round here on good ground, so don't let drying conditions put you off. The best jumper in the field which will be vital at 2 mile championship pace, has the best form in the book, clear on Timeform ratings and really should be favourite. Bryan Cooper is a great jockey who will ensure they don't give Ruby too much rope out in front on Champagne Fever, good lad someone needed to stop this!

2.40 - The Package - Form fresh would put him in with a great chance in this and has been off all year since this race last year. Has come down in the weights and could run well here in this competitive handicap.

3.20 - Champion Hurdle - Our Conor. Will have been trained with this exact day in mind, Cheltenham suits and his Triumph success last year was incredible. Watch that back and you will want to be on Our Conor here! Danny Mullins has had a few rides to get used to the horse as well now so hopefully he won't give Ruby et al too much respect.

4.00 - Mares Hurdle - Quevega. Say no more, an absolute wonder mare and would love her to get her 6th in a row here.

4.40 - National Hunt Chase - Shutthefrontdoor. Put this up on the blog ages ago as he has had a wind operation since his last run and been laid out for this race. The ground has come in his favour, has a top jockey booked and will run a massive race. Sadly the price has long gone now but his chances are clear for all to see.

5.15 - Lucky Last - Close House. Blinkered first time, mark has come tumbling down and looks to have been saved for this race since his last run in January. Has previous course experience and that wily old fox David Pipe is no stranger to a handicap plot.

Wednesday and a Queen Mother without the great Sprinter Sacre

Onto the 2nd day of the festival now starting with the Neptune Novices Hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs. There are a number of horses who are engaged in both this and the 3 mile Albert Bartlett such as Briar Hill and Deputy Dan (target weather dependent) so it is probably best to wait until the day to get involved here unless you fancy going for one at a big price. The market is headed by Willie Mullin's Faugheen, a winner of all 4 of his starts under rules and one that looks really exciting. However he has missed his two most recent engagements and is still currently around the 5/2 mark for this race which is short enough for me considering Willie has said he wasn't 100% happy with him at home. Granted he has Graded form, something six of the last ten winners of this race had, and if anyone can get one ready at home its Mullins - the man can have some mighty impressive horses galloping against each other! However he isn't a value play at the moment.
David Pipe's Red Sherlock is 2nd fav and, like the fav, is also unbeaten including winning a Grade 2 at the track last time out. Red Sherlock gets the trip, won't mind the ground having won on heavy but having the speed to win a bumper in November, jumps well and is my preferred bet of those at the head of the market - I was very taken by his willingness to battle to beat Rathvinden in the previously mentioned Grade 2.
Of those at bigger prices I like Ballyalton, who will surely put the disappointment of his run lto behind him on better ground. Conditions at Cheltenham on New Year's Day were awful and ignoring that run he has been impressive thus far. I remember listening to AP McCoy talk about this horse before he won at Cheltenham in December and the Champion Jockey was incredibly enthusiastic about him, enthusiasm which was backed up when he turned over the well regarded Garde La Victoire. Deputy Dan has also done little wrong thus far and if the ground comes up soft I believe this race will be the target. He has the beating of Betfair Hurdle winner Splash of Ginge in his past record and has won over the distance on heavy ground so will appreciate the stamina test posed in this race. To sum up the Neptune; Red Sherlock at the head of the market and then either Deputy Dan if the ground comes up soft or Ballyalton if we get good ground.

Next up comes the RSA, a grueling 3 mile half a furlong chase. I have a strong fancy here for Carlingford Lough. Basically you need a battle-hardened chaser here, one who will appreciate the test of stamina this race always poses. look back at the previous winners of the race; Bobs Worth, Bostons Angel, Denman...all chasers who had bags of stamina. You don't want to be coming in here with any doubts over the trip. Also Carlingford Lough has experience of big fields, the hustle and bustle of this Grade One won't phase this horse. He is extremely unlucky to come here with a U as his most recent piece of form, that unseat was caused by Don Cossack who drifted right in front of him, and prior to that he has some really impressive form including the beating of Morning Assebly, Bright New Dawn and the winner of the Galway Plate off a ridiculous mark of 109! This horse has Grade One form in the book, form over 3 miles in the book, is battle hardened and thanks to his slightly unglamourous profile of a horse graduating from handicaps you will likely get a decent price about him. With 12/1 currently about I could not put anyone off an e/w punt on Carlingford Lough for this race - I am very keen on him!

Coral Cup - lets leave the handicaps until later in the week, they are hard enough already let alone 9 days in advance when we don't know definite line-ups! Keep a look out for Willie Mullins Blood Cotil though - he has some smart from in the book and is currently sitting with 11-1 on his back. This horse has won a Grade 2 race last year and should come on a bundle for his reappearance in January. He was highly though of last year, only just being touched off in a Grade One at Punchestown, and turned the tables on the victor that day over in France later in the season. Ran at Cheltenham last year in the Fred Winter off a mark of 144, so gets into this off a 1lb lower mark, I'm keen to see what sort of price he is on the day.

Now comes the Sprinter Sacre benefit race...without the great horse after Henderson was forced to rule Sprinter out after not completely satisfying with his work at home. While the Queen Mother has less quality with his absence it is now a far more competitive race as horses previously scared off by the wonder-horse are now reappearing, such as the old favorite Sizing Europe. I can't have current fav in the market Sire De Grugy on my mind, he doesn't convince at Cheltenham, indeed he has been defeated by Kid Cassidy and Captain Conan on his previous visits here, and although mighty impressive LTO at Ascot that was going the other way round and there are doubts over just how good that form is for me. Of the others I'm not hugely taken by any of them. If Arvika Ligeonniere could go this way round he would appeal, but just watch his run in the Arkle last year and that will put you right off him. The old boy Sizing Europe has probably had his day, Benefficient is going for the Ryanair and will likely be joined by Al Ferof, Hinterland could well go for the Arkle as a novice, Alderwood may not be quite good enough at this level, Module would need heavy ground to be effective in this class, Kid Cassidy ran a shocker last time out and only beat Sire De Grugy when receiving 10lbs so if I can't have SDG I shouldn't have Kid Cassidy either, Somersby will run with credit but could also be a bit too old.....If I were going to bet here I'd have an e/w punt on last year's Arkle runner up Baily Green. He is proven round Cheltenham and can jump at speed around the track as well, and his trainer is second to none in his ability to ready one for the day. At a price Baily Green e/w but not a race to get hugely involved in IMO.

Next up is the Cross County race and I'd do what the top jockeys do and grab a cup of tea now! This race doesn't excite me and if I had to put one up it would be Any Currency who trainer Martin Keighley nominates as his best chance of the festival. I still wouldn't back anything here though!

The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle usually attracts those who are not quite good enough for the Triumph hurdle, or who have been given a very nice mark having not shown everything yet! Nicky Henderson's Dawalan has been well backed for this one in recent days having been given a nice mark of 133 by the handicapper. There are plenty of smart ex flat horses in here whose names may catch your eye, Space Ship anyone? However at the time of writing a lot of these horses are doubly engaged in this and the Triumph so I don't want to look into this in too much detail yet. The last two winners of this one were priced at 25/1 and 40/1 so it may pay to look at those away from the head of the market.

Finally we end the day with the Champion bumper, a 2 mile 1/2 a furlong flat race won 4 of the last 9 years by that man Willie Mullins. However just look at the sp's of previous winners of this race...25/1, 16/1, 14/1, 40/1 in the last four years and they tell you it's not as easy as picking the shortest of Mullin's runners in the race. How a Ruby Walsh ridden Willie Mullins trained runner was allowed to go off at 25/1 for this last year will remain one of the mysteries of the 2013 festival though! One I do like here is the Dermot Weld trained Silver Concord though. A 6 year old, he has been given time to strengthen up and looked really good when winning a Leopardstown bumper over the festive period. Although he had been off the track for 17 months prior to that he has had a decent break since his comeback so the bounce factor should be avoided and he could go well again here. As I say he has been given time to strengthen up so I expect him to have the stamina to get up the hill and hopefully he can give Weld that Cheltenham winner that he has missed over the last few years.

Tuesday at Cheltenham - 9 days to go!

Excitement is really building for me as we are now less than 10 days away from the start of the Cheltenham festival! One great imponderable for punters as the fez draws in is the state of the ground, however with the weather forecast as it is it certainly looks like being a soft ground festival, although we will most certainly start on Simon Caisse's favourite ground - good to soft! With doubts over a few festival standing dishes like Big Bucks and the unfortunate withdrawal of others such as Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card the races look to have a really open look about them this year. Over the next few blogs I'm going to look at each day as it stands and highlight a few bets for each day that I like so without further ado lets get started with Tuesday.

The festival opener...the Supreme Novice's hurdle and the famous roar that traditionally greets the runner is this race. This is often talked about as the race some jockeys leave their brains in the weighing room as the occasion is so huge it is forgiveable to let it get to them! The charge to the first few flights is often frenetic and you NEED a good jumper to ensure that your bet stays open after the first minute of racing - lets dismiss Wilde Blue Yonder here. Alan King's charge certainly has talent but with falls in his last two outings he is one with a highish place in the market that just doesn't convince with his hurdling. Now in a previous blog I expressed preference for Irving over Vatour if I were to pick one at the head of the market...I'm also willing to take on Irving though for the second attribute I feel will be key in this Supreme - Stamina. Irving has impressed at Kempton last time out but he has looked a very speedy horse and I worry that the end-to-end gallop that this race is likely to throw up could put more of an emphasis on stamina than he would like, and at the price I am willing to swerve his as well.
So what do I like for the opener? Well previously I've said I fancy The Liquidator and I still do, however David Pipe's words that he would 'hopefully' get to the festival but faced a race against time concerned me when I read them today and I won't be getting involved any further until the day. If The Liquidator turns up and isn't a huge drifter in the market then he will be the one for me for reasons I've previously stated. If not then it may pay to get involved with one towards the head of the market, of the last 6 winners of this race the biggest winning sp was 12/1 (Note although The Liquidator is a big price now he will obviously be shorter on the day). I'm sure the Mullins trio will fit this bill, however I'd like to see the price of Josses Hill on the day. He has had 3 starts for Henderson since joining from Ireland, where he came 2nd to the well fancied Faugheen, and he has won two of these and finished 2nd in the other. Josses Hill jumps well, has grade 1 form in the book and will like the likely ground conditions that he will face here. Henderson also has a good record in the race, he has had horses make the frame in 6 of the last 7 renewals, and Josses Hill can go well for him here.

Next up is the Arkle where Champagne Fever, winner of last year's Supreme Novice's Hurdle, returns at the head of the market for this chase over the minimum distance. Champagne Fever's Cheltenham record cannot be called into doubt, with wins in the festival opener and Champion Bumper in 2013 and 2012 respectively, however his experience over fences can. He has only had 2 starts over the larger obstacles and fluffed his lines at a short price during one of those, and at his current price I would rather have some more solid chase form in the book. The same applies to extremely classy ex-hurdler Rock on Ruby who has had 2 starts over fences and hasn't really been asked a question in either. Add into the mix his need for good ground, and genuinely good ground seems unlikely at this stage, and the ex Champion Hurdler is also passed over. Nicky Henderson's Grandouet does not convince me over fences either, and I've seen reports that Andrew Tinkler said he schooled so badly recently that he would fall in a Jumpers Bumper, not exactly a ringing endorsement! The two I do like here are Alan King's Valdez, 3 out of 3 over fences for a trainer with a good record in the race, and Trifolium, the winner of the Leopardstown Arkle when beating Felix Yonger and Mozoltov in January under talented jockey Brian Cooper. Valdez came out and won just as Alan King was emerging from his enforced break and will most certainly come on from that run. He jumps nicely and will appreciate the stiff finish at Cheltenham judging from the way he travels through his races. However Trifolium could be the one here. Really impressive with his jumping last time out and proven in soft ground I think Bryan Cooper can open his account for the 2014 festival here. Trifolium had the speed to finish 3rd in the Supreme Novices in 2012, on decent ground, so don't listen to those branding him a mudlark except when allowing them to let his price get bigger with their doubts! Looking back over his form Trifolium has had the beating of many of his rivals over fences and you could argue if this were a Mullins horse he would be a very warm order. Trifolium the one for me to add the English Arkle to his Irish one.

The next Grade One for us on Tuesday (they come thick and fast on the opening day!) is quite possibly the race of the Festival - the Stan James Champion Hurdle. Defending Champion Hurricane Fly comes into this on the back of 2 Grade One wins in Ireland so far this year with jockey Ruby Walsh making all the right noises. Walsh recognises that the Fly hasn't been at his best, even when winning his 2 Champion Hurdles, and is adamant we will see the absolute best of him this year. I hugely respect Ruby Walsh and although previously I was massively in the Our Conor camp doubts are starting to creep into my head and I may well end up backing both horses, primarily because I would love to see Hurricane Fly win. Our Conor will run a huge race I am sure of it. He has been coming on and getting better with each race this year and I want to see Danny Mullins learn from his mistake last time out and really serve it up to the Fly this time rather than pussy around mid-race showing the horse and jockey too much respect. The way Our Conor routed the field in the Triumph last year is unforgettable and I would personally much rather have Cooper on the horses back. However the owner is obviously free to choose his jockey and Mullins it will be. I think Our Conor certainly poses the biggest threat to the Fly here with the course sure to play more into the hands of the young pretender than the flatter Leopardstown track at which the Fly has had his measure the last time.
I have my doubts over the stamina of My Tent Or Yours; yes he impressed at Kempton and if this race was slowly run MTOY's has a huge chance. However the way Champagne Fever held him up the hill last year sticks in the memory and I think there are horses who will be finishing off this race much better than Hendo's charge. The New One has the stamina and the course form however will his jumping hold up against the best in the business here?
I could spend an age writing about the merits of each horse in this race, they are all fantastic animals and I haven't even mentioned the likes of Meodic Rendezvous, Annie Power (if she turns up), Un De Sceaux (ditto) and Jezki who will apparently be ridden more positively this time. I'll round off this race though with the folowing - the Heart says The Fly, the head says Our Conor. I'm sure we will see some enticing prices on the day of the race as bookies battle for your custom and it is best to wait until race say before you make your choice now unless you have a fancy price already on your ante-post voucher.

The Mares hurdle - Quevega. Say no more. This race doesn't do it for me but I would love to see the wonder mare make it 6 in a row. Annie Power won't turn up here, no way would Mullins put her in as she would smash Quevega in my opinion and Mullins has no desire to see Quevega beat! If Harry Fry sends his mare Highland Retreat here she makes some appeal e/w but that will do for me on this race.

There are three handicaps on day one of the festival and I won't go into too much depth as we don't know the confirmed line ups yet. However I do like Shutthefrontdoor if he turns up in the Festival Handicap Chase at 2.40. He ran well earlier in the season here over fences, finishing 2nd to Le Bec who heads to the RSA Chase, and although disappointing since Jonjo has given him a breathing operation and better can be expected here. One plus side to his absence since is that the handicapper hasn't seen how good Shutthefrontdoor is and I expect he will give a bold show if he goes in this race over 3 miles half a furlong. Time for Rupert also looks exceptionally well handicapped on his old form and showed a glimmer of hope last time out with a decent performance. He could be worth a play at a big price.
In the National Hunt Chase I'll give a shout to Just a Par who has also had a breathing operation since his last run, where he disappointed supporters at Kempton over the festive period. Prior to that he had run very well and impressed me with his jumping. Back on better ground with a step up in trip I am willing to forgive the Nicholls horse that bad run. Paul Nicholls will also be able to secure the services of a good amateur in this race with the respect he commands as a trainer and Just a Par should go well here. You may well get a nice price as well as Nicholls also saddles Black Thunder who may be seen as the stable first string.

Thanks for reading my preview of Tuesday!