Unfortunately, or probably fortunately for my wallet, I don't blog full time so have had to condense my fancies for the remaining days of Cheltenham into one post. So here we go...
Neptune Novices Hurdle
Unless Let's Dance goes for this, with the absence of Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf will be a fairly strong favourite. He is unbeaten in 4 races, including a super impressive win the last day at Haydock, and boasts an impressive blend of speed and stamina. However, Willoughby Court, a winner of his last 2 races over this distance, comes here with stable confidence reportedly very high and is a much more backable 12/1. Take him e/w
Cross Country
The classy horse in this race is Cause of Clauses, and he is the selection. He has past form at Cheltenham, albeit not over these unique fences, but last year he did win the Kim Muir under Jamie Codd, who will take the ride here. An excellent booking, and Cause of Clauses has reportedly schooled over these type of fences recently. He has plenty of stamina under his bonnet, and coupled with his classy pedigree (he has been contesting much better races than this) he is the selection to overcome Cantlow, the favourite who does not always put it all in at the finish.
Fred Winter
Here I like the chances of Project Bluebook who is trained by John Quinn, a master trainer of these young juvenile hurdlers. I believe Quinn had earmarked this one fro the Triumph but his lenient mark has tempted him down the handicap route and we should take the hint. Brian Hughes gave him a shocker of a ride last time out, and he has admitted as much on the preview circuit, but prior to that he has been upwardly mobile and at least that defeat has ensured his mark is more fair. Brian gets a great chance to make amends and I expect the top jockey in the North to give the selection a far better ride this time! Overpriced as an e/w chance
Stayers Hurdle
I love Jezki for this race, and I am more than willing to take on one of the bankers of the festival here. Jezki is pure class, he has won a Champion hurdle but looking at his breeding he really should appreciate this 3 mile test, especially considering his advancing years. Last time out the ground was shocking bad, and he may well have bounced, so ignore that and focus on the very impressive comeback the time before. He has the speed to sit in and pounce if the race gets tactical, the stamina (he is a 3 mile winner already) if it is an out and out test and at 7/1 he looks an e/w steal.
Brown Advisory Plate
Diamond King heads the market having won the Coral Cup at the fez last year off a 1 lbs lower mark. However, he is well short enough and I'll put up another who has been heavily tipped on the preview circuit in Sizing Codelco. He hasn't been a massive success so far this year, but he did only narrowly go down to Top Notch, fancied for the JLT 2 runs ago before finding 26 furlongs much to far a trip last time out. He has since been put away and his handicap mark protected for this race, and is actually 1 lbs lower than he started the season. Sneaky from Mr Tizzard and I expect him to make the frame.
Mares Novice
If Lets Dance turns up here have the lot on. She is an absolute class apart and would have given the boys a race if she were allowed to take her chance in the Neptune. But with trip fine and this opposition not a patch on her take Lets Dance to make it 5 wins on the bounce. And Willie Mullins' love for these Mares only races will grow even more.
Kim Muir
I really like one here, and that horse is Mal Dini. A winner here last year, important festival form, he has not been in the same form this season. BUT.....The tongue-tie he wore to victory in the Pertemps Final last season hasn't been seen this season but is crucially seen now, and he also has not had some good ground which he likes. Again he gets his ground. For me has been crying out for a step up in trip....which also arrives here. Excellent jockey booking, this really looks like a plan coming together for me. Awfully tempting
Triumph Hurdle
I can see the Irish kicking off Gold Cup day with a winner in the shape of the Gordon Elliott trained Mega Fortune, fresh off the back of a win last time out when Elliott finally gave up trying to get him a handicap mark for the Fred Winter. We saw just how much talent this horse has when winning at Leopardstown last time out, showing stamina that will prove crucial here and reversing form with Bapaume. This race is usually run at a fair lick, and I can see Mega Fortune staying on up the hill and winning this.
Gold Cup
This is still a really interesting race, even without Thistlecrack. Cue Card will bring the house down if he wins where as Native River stays as long as the mother-in-law at your house. But the one I actually fancy is the runner up in the previous 2 Gold Cups in Djakadam. He has been beat by Coneygree and Don Cossack in the blue riband event, so clearly loves the track, trip and test the Gold Cup throws up, and for my money there is nothing that good in the race this year. Djakadam will be ridden by the masterful Ruby Walsh, is the subject of hugely positive vibes at home and looks set to finally give Willie Mullins the Gold Cup he craves. A smashing bet at 4/1, cannot see him out the frame. People will point to his 2 defeats the last twice, but he has come to the Gold Cup a very young horse, grown up in it and now finally I think it is his time to shine.
Grand Annual
I'm putting up a former Champion Chase winner who is tumbling down the weights and looks on a very attractive mark. Dodging Bullets is my selection for the final race of the festival - he goes well at Cheltenham, will love this ferociously run 2 miles and I think with these conditions in his favour, and his confidence coming back according to Sam Twiston-Davis, he can bounce back to form and send us packing with a winner.
Tuesday 14 March 2017
Sunday 12 March 2017
Cheltenham Tuesday
It's almost here, the greatest 4 days in the jumps racing year; starting with arguably the best day of them all in Cheltenham Tuesday. With the Supreme Novice's Hurdle, the Arkle, the Champion Hurdle and the Mares Hurdle we have 4 top quality Grade 1 races, supplemented by the 4 miler and 2 fiendishly tricky handicaps.
Supreme
What a tough race to kick us off with. The only good thing for us as punters is that with the huge number of bookmaker offers available you really shouldn't be losing on this race. But which horse to go forward with? Melon? No, could be very good but very inexperienced with only 1 race over hurdles under his bonnet and a huge reputation to carry. Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes ran extremely well in the Betfair but I'd expect quite a few of these horses to have done what they did with those marks, and the rumours of a virus in the NTD yard are also offputting. No idea where Moon Racer has been for the last few months either so passing him over. In fact, with all the bookie offers I'd be tempted by one at a big old price in Beyond Conceit for Nicky Henderson. He won last time out despite being green as grass, pulling like a train and only just getting on top over 2 miles 4 furlongs at Ascot. However, I think this could be a different proposition. I'm convinced a strongly run 2 miles to help him settle, with the Cheltenham hill to come at the end to bring stamina into play, and possibly a hood on to again help him settle will bring out the best in him. At the price you can have a nice little e/w bet, safe in the comfort blanket of various bookie money back offers.
Arkle
This should be a procession for Altior, and we should take the opportunity just to watch him win in style here. However, if you want a bet and don't fancy betting £7 to win £2 then have a look for something to follow him home. Charbel will be popular with some, having been in the process of making Altior actually try prior to belting the final fence on his previous start at Sandown. His absence since December will be a concern to some though. I actually quite like a last time out faller here in the shape of Royal Caviar for the Walsh/Mullins team. He would have won the last day had he not taken a nasty fall at the last, but the fact he comes here would indicate Mullin's is happy he is over that. He has been a nice winner of his first chase start and it is rare you get to back a Willie Mullins trained, Ruby Walsh ridden horse at these kind of odds at Cheltenham. Ruby will be sensible, like his class ride on West Approach a few months ago when he rode that horse to place, I think Royal Caviar will be given a ride that maximises his chance of following Altior home rather than beat him and he looks a decent little e/w bet here.
Ultima Chase
My fancy here is towards the head of the market, but this horse just absolutely loves Cheltenham and the selection is Noble Endeavour. He was only just touched off in the Martin Pipe, looked like he would be bang there in the 4 miler last year only to fall 2 out and clearly just comes alive at the place. He has been trained for this race and his trainer Gordon Elliott is full of positive vibes for him. Last time out Noble Endeavour, with Davy Russell on top who gets the ride here, beat The Crafty Butcher and has been kept fresh since specifically for this race. Prior to that he was not too far behind Gold Cup or Ryanair bound Empire of Dirt, certainly not bad form, and Gordon must feel like he is on a very nice mark. I fully expect him to take advantage here with trip, ground and track to suit
Champion Hurdle
No Faugheen, no Annie Power...no true Champion??? That isn't true, but what is true is this race is an exceptionally open Championship race for once. JP McManus looks to hold a strong hand, with Buveur D'Air, who ran so well in an exceptionally strong Supreme last year, reverting from fences to tackle this race accompanied by Yanworth, a winner of the Christmas Hurdle and My Tent or Yours, somehow beaten in the Supreme Novices a few years back by Champagne Fever. However, my selection is a horse who has looked a different animal this year, has won his last 2 Grade 1 races and looks to have the best form in the book from the 20216-17 season in Petit Mouchoir. Gigginstown rely on this horse, interesting given the vibes about possibly supplementing Tombstone, and the fact he is an uncomplicated horse who can go from the front, won't be daunted by pressure from other horses certainly appears to have the stamina to get up the hill. At around 5/1, Petit Mouchoir to me looks an e/w bet to nothing.
Mares Hurdle
I did not think we would be seeing star mares Vroom Vroom mag and Limini clash here given Rich Ricci owns the both of them and it would surely, if he was dead confident on the form of one of them, make sense to win this race with that horse and target an alternate race with the other? Spread his riches around so to speak? Because he looks to send both here it makes me think confidence cannot be supreme in either. The twice that Limini hasn't had a long break from racing she disappointed so with only 20 days between her last race and this race today I'm keen to oppose, and Vroom Vroom Mag was savage disappointing at Doncaster last time out so I think the play is to look elsewhere here. And the bet I would suggest is Colin's Sister e/w for the Fergal O'Brien team. This mare has won her last 4 races, including on a variety of ground but all around this 2 mile 4 furlong trip, and looks to be going the right way and fully deserves to take her chance in this race. Paddy Brennan will take the ride, as he has for her previous 4 wins, and I think at 25/1 she could well run into a place here.
National Hunt Chase
This 4 mile race will clearly put a premium on stamina, and the fact these horses are ridden by amateur riders adds further intrigue to the race. Held this year in memory of JT McNamara, the jockey who sadly lost his life after initially being paralysed after a fall at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. JP McManus will be keen to win this race bearing that in mind, but I don't really fancy the chances of Edwulf making it over all of these fences. A Genie In Abottle looks a worthy favourite, and top jockey Jamie Codd was booked early for the ride, but he is short enough in the market now and I'll look for a bit of a bigger price e/w. Martello Tower is the one who catches my eye, the 2015 Albert Bartlett winner and a horse who earlier in the season actually beat A Genie In Abottle. He has shown nothing since, but the yard have shown a few signs of a bit of form recently and if the return to Cheltenham can spark a revival he looks to have the talent to win this race, and certainly place given the stamina associated with Albert Bartlett winners.
Close Brothers Handicap Chase
Ok, last race on the card, a tricky little handicap. Not where you want to be trying to win money back if you are down on the day, so let's hope for the best! Favourites don't have a great record in the race, with only 1 winner in the last ten years, so we can be encouraged to look away from Foxtail Hill (again, worrying if you fancy him given the vibes about the yard's form). I like one for the North here in Double W's for Malcom Jefferson and Brian Hughes. 140 looks a fair enough mark given he has won off 135 earlier in the year, and he was 2nd in January off 1 lbs lower, and you fancy the trainer will have saved him for this race since then. Brian Hughes has mentioned him in positive terms in the preview nights since then and he will do for me at a nice e/w price in the closing race.
Thanks for reading and I'd love to hear your thoughts on the opening day of the greatest 4 days Jumps racing in the calendar
Supreme
 |
| Here they go... |
What a tough race to kick us off with. The only good thing for us as punters is that with the huge number of bookmaker offers available you really shouldn't be losing on this race. But which horse to go forward with? Melon? No, could be very good but very inexperienced with only 1 race over hurdles under his bonnet and a huge reputation to carry. Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes ran extremely well in the Betfair but I'd expect quite a few of these horses to have done what they did with those marks, and the rumours of a virus in the NTD yard are also offputting. No idea where Moon Racer has been for the last few months either so passing him over. In fact, with all the bookie offers I'd be tempted by one at a big old price in Beyond Conceit for Nicky Henderson. He won last time out despite being green as grass, pulling like a train and only just getting on top over 2 miles 4 furlongs at Ascot. However, I think this could be a different proposition. I'm convinced a strongly run 2 miles to help him settle, with the Cheltenham hill to come at the end to bring stamina into play, and possibly a hood on to again help him settle will bring out the best in him. At the price you can have a nice little e/w bet, safe in the comfort blanket of various bookie money back offers.
Arkle
 |
| Could Altior produce a Sprinter Sacre like performance? |
This should be a procession for Altior, and we should take the opportunity just to watch him win in style here. However, if you want a bet and don't fancy betting £7 to win £2 then have a look for something to follow him home. Charbel will be popular with some, having been in the process of making Altior actually try prior to belting the final fence on his previous start at Sandown. His absence since December will be a concern to some though. I actually quite like a last time out faller here in the shape of Royal Caviar for the Walsh/Mullins team. He would have won the last day had he not taken a nasty fall at the last, but the fact he comes here would indicate Mullin's is happy he is over that. He has been a nice winner of his first chase start and it is rare you get to back a Willie Mullins trained, Ruby Walsh ridden horse at these kind of odds at Cheltenham. Ruby will be sensible, like his class ride on West Approach a few months ago when he rode that horse to place, I think Royal Caviar will be given a ride that maximises his chance of following Altior home rather than beat him and he looks a decent little e/w bet here.
Ultima Chase
My fancy here is towards the head of the market, but this horse just absolutely loves Cheltenham and the selection is Noble Endeavour. He was only just touched off in the Martin Pipe, looked like he would be bang there in the 4 miler last year only to fall 2 out and clearly just comes alive at the place. He has been trained for this race and his trainer Gordon Elliott is full of positive vibes for him. Last time out Noble Endeavour, with Davy Russell on top who gets the ride here, beat The Crafty Butcher and has been kept fresh since specifically for this race. Prior to that he was not too far behind Gold Cup or Ryanair bound Empire of Dirt, certainly not bad form, and Gordon must feel like he is on a very nice mark. I fully expect him to take advantage here with trip, ground and track to suit
Champion Hurdle
No Faugheen, no Annie Power...no true Champion??? That isn't true, but what is true is this race is an exceptionally open Championship race for once. JP McManus looks to hold a strong hand, with Buveur D'Air, who ran so well in an exceptionally strong Supreme last year, reverting from fences to tackle this race accompanied by Yanworth, a winner of the Christmas Hurdle and My Tent or Yours, somehow beaten in the Supreme Novices a few years back by Champagne Fever. However, my selection is a horse who has looked a different animal this year, has won his last 2 Grade 1 races and looks to have the best form in the book from the 20216-17 season in Petit Mouchoir. Gigginstown rely on this horse, interesting given the vibes about possibly supplementing Tombstone, and the fact he is an uncomplicated horse who can go from the front, won't be daunted by pressure from other horses certainly appears to have the stamina to get up the hill. At around 5/1, Petit Mouchoir to me looks an e/w bet to nothing.
Mares Hurdle
I did not think we would be seeing star mares Vroom Vroom mag and Limini clash here given Rich Ricci owns the both of them and it would surely, if he was dead confident on the form of one of them, make sense to win this race with that horse and target an alternate race with the other? Spread his riches around so to speak? Because he looks to send both here it makes me think confidence cannot be supreme in either. The twice that Limini hasn't had a long break from racing she disappointed so with only 20 days between her last race and this race today I'm keen to oppose, and Vroom Vroom Mag was savage disappointing at Doncaster last time out so I think the play is to look elsewhere here. And the bet I would suggest is Colin's Sister e/w for the Fergal O'Brien team. This mare has won her last 4 races, including on a variety of ground but all around this 2 mile 4 furlong trip, and looks to be going the right way and fully deserves to take her chance in this race. Paddy Brennan will take the ride, as he has for her previous 4 wins, and I think at 25/1 she could well run into a place here.
National Hunt Chase
 |
| RIP John Thomas McNamara |
This 4 mile race will clearly put a premium on stamina, and the fact these horses are ridden by amateur riders adds further intrigue to the race. Held this year in memory of JT McNamara, the jockey who sadly lost his life after initially being paralysed after a fall at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. JP McManus will be keen to win this race bearing that in mind, but I don't really fancy the chances of Edwulf making it over all of these fences. A Genie In Abottle looks a worthy favourite, and top jockey Jamie Codd was booked early for the ride, but he is short enough in the market now and I'll look for a bit of a bigger price e/w. Martello Tower is the one who catches my eye, the 2015 Albert Bartlett winner and a horse who earlier in the season actually beat A Genie In Abottle. He has shown nothing since, but the yard have shown a few signs of a bit of form recently and if the return to Cheltenham can spark a revival he looks to have the talent to win this race, and certainly place given the stamina associated with Albert Bartlett winners.
Close Brothers Handicap Chase
Ok, last race on the card, a tricky little handicap. Not where you want to be trying to win money back if you are down on the day, so let's hope for the best! Favourites don't have a great record in the race, with only 1 winner in the last ten years, so we can be encouraged to look away from Foxtail Hill (again, worrying if you fancy him given the vibes about the yard's form). I like one for the North here in Double W's for Malcom Jefferson and Brian Hughes. 140 looks a fair enough mark given he has won off 135 earlier in the year, and he was 2nd in January off 1 lbs lower, and you fancy the trainer will have saved him for this race since then. Brian Hughes has mentioned him in positive terms in the preview nights since then and he will do for me at a nice e/w price in the closing race.
Thanks for reading and I'd love to hear your thoughts on the opening day of the greatest 4 days Jumps racing in the calendar
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)