Excitement is really building for me as we are now less than 10 days away from the start of the Cheltenham festival! One great imponderable for punters as the fez draws in is the state of the ground, however with the weather forecast as it is it certainly looks like being a soft ground festival, although we will most certainly start on Simon Caisse's favourite ground - good to soft! With doubts over a few festival standing dishes like Big Bucks and the unfortunate withdrawal of others such as Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card the races look to have a really open look about them this year. Over the next few blogs I'm going to look at each day as it stands and highlight a few bets for each day that I like so without further ado lets get started with Tuesday.
The festival opener...the Supreme Novice's hurdle and the famous roar that traditionally greets the runner is this race. This is often talked about as the race some jockeys leave their brains in the weighing room as the occasion is so huge it is forgiveable to let it get to them! The charge to the first few flights is often frenetic and you NEED a good jumper to ensure that your bet stays open after the first minute of racing - lets dismiss Wilde Blue Yonder here. Alan King's charge certainly has talent but with falls in his last two outings he is one with a highish place in the market that just doesn't convince with his hurdling. Now in a previous blog I expressed preference for Irving over Vatour if I were to pick one at the head of the market...I'm also willing to take on Irving though for the second attribute I feel will be key in this Supreme - Stamina. Irving has impressed at Kempton last time out but he has looked a very speedy horse and I worry that the end-to-end gallop that this race is likely to throw up could put more of an emphasis on stamina than he would like, and at the price I am willing to swerve his as well.
So what do I like for the opener? Well previously I've said I fancy The Liquidator and I still do, however David Pipe's words that he would 'hopefully' get to the festival but faced a race against time concerned me when I read them today and I won't be getting involved any further until the day. If The Liquidator turns up and isn't a huge drifter in the market then he will be the one for me for reasons I've previously stated. If not then it may pay to get involved with one towards the head of the market, of the last 6 winners of this race the biggest winning sp was 12/1 (Note although The Liquidator is a big price now he will obviously be shorter on the day). I'm sure the Mullins trio will fit this bill, however I'd like to see the price of Josses Hill on the day. He has had 3 starts for Henderson since joining from Ireland, where he came 2nd to the well fancied Faugheen, and he has won two of these and finished 2nd in the other. Josses Hill jumps well, has grade 1 form in the book and will like the likely ground conditions that he will face here. Henderson also has a good record in the race, he has had horses make the frame in 6 of the last 7 renewals, and Josses Hill can go well for him here.
Next up is the Arkle where Champagne Fever, winner of last year's Supreme Novice's Hurdle, returns at the head of the market for this chase over the minimum distance. Champagne Fever's Cheltenham record cannot be called into doubt, with wins in the festival opener and Champion Bumper in 2013 and 2012 respectively, however his experience over fences can. He has only had 2 starts over the larger obstacles and fluffed his lines at a short price during one of those, and at his current price I would rather have some more solid chase form in the book. The same applies to extremely classy ex-hurdler Rock on Ruby who has had 2 starts over fences and hasn't really been asked a question in either. Add into the mix his need for good ground, and genuinely good ground seems unlikely at this stage, and the ex Champion Hurdler is also passed over. Nicky Henderson's Grandouet does not convince me over fences either, and I've seen reports that Andrew Tinkler said he schooled so badly recently that he would fall in a Jumpers Bumper, not exactly a ringing endorsement! The two I do like here are Alan King's Valdez, 3 out of 3 over fences for a trainer with a good record in the race, and Trifolium, the winner of the Leopardstown Arkle when beating Felix Yonger and Mozoltov in January under talented jockey Brian Cooper. Valdez came out and won just as Alan King was emerging from his enforced break and will most certainly come on from that run. He jumps nicely and will appreciate the stiff finish at Cheltenham judging from the way he travels through his races. However Trifolium could be the one here. Really impressive with his jumping last time out and proven in soft ground I think Bryan Cooper can open his account for the 2014 festival here. Trifolium had the speed to finish 3rd in the Supreme Novices in 2012, on decent ground, so don't listen to those branding him a mudlark except when allowing them to let his price get bigger with their doubts! Looking back over his form Trifolium has had the beating of many of his rivals over fences and you could argue if this were a Mullins horse he would be a very warm order. Trifolium the one for me to add the English Arkle to his Irish one.
The next Grade One for us on Tuesday (they come thick and fast on the opening day!) is quite possibly the race of the Festival - the Stan James Champion Hurdle. Defending Champion Hurricane Fly comes into this on the back of 2 Grade One wins in Ireland so far this year with jockey Ruby Walsh making all the right noises. Walsh recognises that the Fly hasn't been at his best, even when winning his 2 Champion Hurdles, and is adamant we will see the absolute best of him this year. I hugely respect Ruby Walsh and although previously I was massively in the Our Conor camp doubts are starting to creep into my head and I may well end up backing both horses, primarily because I would love to see Hurricane Fly win. Our Conor will run a huge race I am sure of it. He has been coming on and getting better with each race this year and I want to see Danny Mullins learn from his mistake last time out and really serve it up to the Fly this time rather than pussy around mid-race showing the horse and jockey too much respect. The way Our Conor routed the field in the Triumph last year is unforgettable and I would personally much rather have Cooper on the horses back. However the owner is obviously free to choose his jockey and Mullins it will be. I think Our Conor certainly poses the biggest threat to the Fly here with the course sure to play more into the hands of the young pretender than the flatter Leopardstown track at which the Fly has had his measure the last time.
I have my doubts over the stamina of My Tent Or Yours; yes he impressed at Kempton and if this race was slowly run MTOY's has a huge chance. However the way Champagne Fever held him up the hill last year sticks in the memory and I think there are horses who will be finishing off this race much better than Hendo's charge. The New One has the stamina and the course form however will his jumping hold up against the best in the business here?
I could spend an age writing about the merits of each horse in this race, they are all fantastic animals and I haven't even mentioned the likes of Meodic Rendezvous, Annie Power (if she turns up), Un De Sceaux (ditto) and Jezki who will apparently be ridden more positively this time. I'll round off this race though with the folowing - the Heart says The Fly, the head says Our Conor. I'm sure we will see some enticing prices on the day of the race as bookies battle for your custom and it is best to wait until race say before you make your choice now unless you have a fancy price already on your ante-post voucher.
The Mares hurdle - Quevega. Say no more. This race doesn't do it for me but I would love to see the wonder mare make it 6 in a row. Annie Power won't turn up here, no way would Mullins put her in as she would smash Quevega in my opinion and Mullins has no desire to see Quevega beat! If Harry Fry sends his mare Highland Retreat here she makes some appeal e/w but that will do for me on this race.
There are three handicaps on day one of the festival and I won't go into too much depth as we don't know the confirmed line ups yet. However I do like Shutthefrontdoor if he turns up in the Festival Handicap Chase at 2.40. He ran well earlier in the season here over fences, finishing 2nd to Le Bec who heads to the RSA Chase, and although disappointing since Jonjo has given him a breathing operation and better can be expected here. One plus side to his absence since is that the handicapper hasn't seen how good Shutthefrontdoor is and I expect he will give a bold show if he goes in this race over 3 miles half a furlong. Time for Rupert also looks exceptionally well handicapped on his old form and showed a glimmer of hope last time out with a decent performance. He could be worth a play at a big price.
In the National Hunt Chase I'll give a shout to Just a Par who has also had a breathing operation since his last run, where he disappointed supporters at Kempton over the festive period. Prior to that he had run very well and impressed me with his jumping. Back on better ground with a step up in trip I am willing to forgive the Nicholls horse that bad run. Paul Nicholls will also be able to secure the services of a good amateur in this race with the respect he commands as a trainer and Just a Par should go well here. You may well get a nice price as well as Nicholls also saddles Black Thunder who may be seen as the stable first string.
Thanks for reading my preview of Tuesday!
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