A closer look at the Supreme Novices Hurdle

This Saturday saw the last real day of Cheltenham trials before the festival in March and one horse who certainly used this day to advertise his claims of festival glory was Paul Nicholl's Irving. This smart hurdler was hammered in the betting before his appearance in the Dovecote hurdle and market support was 100% justified as Irving routed the field to claim this grade 2 in impressive style. He thrashed fellow Supreme hopeful First Mohican, who was impressive on his debut last time out but was firmly put in his place here, and now only Willie Mullin's Vautour is ahead of Irving in the betting for the festival opener. As this was by far and away the most impressive performance of the day in relation to Cheltenham betting I though I would use this blog to take a closer look at the Festival opener, the Skybet Supreme Novices Hurdle, and hopefully provide some clues which you can use in your own analysis of the race.

One thing that springs to mind, well two things really, when looking at backing favourites in this race - Dunguib and Cue Card. Both short priced favourites, both beaten in the race! In fact only 3 of the last 18 runners to have been sent off at 3/1 or shorter in the betting for the Supreme have justified their price with the rest being beaten so definitely bear this in mind before steaming into that short-priced 'sure thing' on Tuesday 11th March. This could be due to punters being over-eager to start the festival off on a winning note, thus the favourite in this race gets backed blindly by many, or perhaps the fact that not that many of the field have had the chance to run to a really high level of form before the festival, so those that have been in the right races and run the big figures are more easily noticeable as their form stands out more, who knows. I don't think we will get a really short favourite this year as we have two strong horses at the head of the market in Vautour and Irving and I can't see one of those being backed and the other not. Vautour has some really strong form in the book, including the beating of The Tullow Tank last time out (although I don't think TTT gave his running there and for some reason Ruby was allowed to completely dictate the race on Vautour), and given connections as well it isn't a surprise to see this one head the market. However the Mullin's yard also have another very smart one in here in the shape of Wicklow Brave, who going from what you hear at the various Cheltenham Preview nights is as fancied, if not more so, as Vautour for this race. Patrick Mullins put him us as his idea of the Supreme winner at a recent preview at Punchestown and although it would be foolish to back exclusively on this basis the confidence behind Wicklow Brave is enough to put me off Vautour at his current price. While impressive when beating TTT at Leopardstown earlier this month Ruby was allowed to control the race from the front, something he won't get to do at Cheltenham, and I really feel he stole the race which has led to his artificially short price here. I'd rather be on Irving at the current prices, especially as Paul Nicholl's said he had left something to work on with this one before his Kempton run. The stable also feel he will improve for better ground which we will hopefully see at Cheltenham and the way he put the Dovecote to bed was so impressive, especially as it came on the back of a solidly run race. If I was going to back one of the pair at the head of the market it would be Irving.

Looking at the bigger prices in the betting one I quite like at the currently available 20/1 is The Liquidator. David Pipe's horse is 20/1 because he ran poorly last time out on very testing ground at Kempton when sent off favourite for the Tolworth hurdle, where he finished 5th behind winner Royal Boy and also Josses Hill who trades at around 10/1 for the Supreme. However I look back in the Liquidator's form and see previous hurdles form at Cheltenham as well as a smart run to finish 4th in last seasons Bumper so he clearly handles the track and the big occasion. Key to this horse, and the reasons I can forgive his performance last time out, is the ground. I think the Liquidator is a much better horse on better ground. The way he weakened in the Tolworth made me think the ground was just too much for him, and I love that he has plenty of Cheltenham experience. The Liquidator was as short as 12/1 for the Supreme before his Kempton flop and I'm hoping that a return to better ground and a left handed undulating track rather than the flat Kempton course can see this horse produce a much better showing. 20/1 is definitely a price where you can get involved with an e/w punt.

There are plenty more horses I could mention with form in the book and plenty more without it who will go on to produce big runs in the festival opener. However we would be here all day if I did that so I've flagged Irving at the head of the market and the Liquidator at a bigger price as my two against the field at the time of writing. There are plenty in the betting with fancy flat form; John Ferguson has quite a few entered as he tries to register his first victory at the Cheltenham festival, the Irish have plenty at the head of the market and its a safe bet we will see a few steamers in the market on the opening day of the festival. I'm sure Willie Mullins would love to win the festival opener as Tuesday is shaping up as if it could be a huge day for Ireland's Champion trainer with Hurricane Fly and Quevega to come later in the day. A winner here would definitely help calm Willie's nerves slightly! However as I say of the two at the head of the market I'm with Irving, and then my e/w fancy for the race is David Pipe's The Liquidator.