Onto the 2nd day of the festival now starting with the Neptune Novices Hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs. There are a number of horses who are engaged in both this and the 3 mile Albert Bartlett such as Briar Hill and Deputy Dan (target weather dependent) so it is probably best to wait until the day to get involved here unless you fancy going for one at a big price. The market is headed by Willie Mullin's Faugheen, a winner of all 4 of his starts under rules and one that looks really exciting. However he has missed his two most recent engagements and is still currently around the 5/2 mark for this race which is short enough for me considering Willie has said he wasn't 100% happy with him at home. Granted he has Graded form, something six of the last ten winners of this race had, and if anyone can get one ready at home its Mullins - the man can have some mighty impressive horses galloping against each other! However he isn't a value play at the moment.
David Pipe's Red Sherlock is 2nd fav and, like the fav, is also unbeaten including winning a Grade 2 at the track last time out. Red Sherlock gets the trip, won't mind the ground having won on heavy but having the speed to win a bumper in November, jumps well and is my preferred bet of those at the head of the market - I was very taken by his willingness to battle to beat Rathvinden in the previously mentioned Grade 2.
Of those at bigger prices I like Ballyalton, who will surely put the disappointment of his run lto behind him on better ground. Conditions at Cheltenham on New Year's Day were awful and ignoring that run he has been impressive thus far. I remember listening to AP McCoy talk about this horse before he won at Cheltenham in December and the Champion Jockey was incredibly enthusiastic about him, enthusiasm which was backed up when he turned over the well regarded Garde La Victoire. Deputy Dan has also done little wrong thus far and if the ground comes up soft I believe this race will be the target. He has the beating of Betfair Hurdle winner Splash of Ginge in his past record and has won over the distance on heavy ground so will appreciate the stamina test posed in this race. To sum up the Neptune; Red Sherlock at the head of the market and then either Deputy Dan if the ground comes up soft or Ballyalton if we get good ground.
Next up comes the RSA, a grueling 3 mile half a furlong chase. I have a strong fancy here for Carlingford Lough. Basically you need a battle-hardened chaser here, one who will appreciate the test of stamina this race always poses. look back at the previous winners of the race; Bobs Worth, Bostons Angel, Denman...all chasers who had bags of stamina. You don't want to be coming in here with any doubts over the trip. Also Carlingford Lough has experience of big fields, the hustle and bustle of this Grade One won't phase this horse. He is extremely unlucky to come here with a U as his most recent piece of form, that unseat was caused by Don Cossack who drifted right in front of him, and prior to that he has some really impressive form including the beating of Morning Assebly, Bright New Dawn and the winner of the Galway Plate off a ridiculous mark of 109! This horse has Grade One form in the book, form over 3 miles in the book, is battle hardened and thanks to his slightly unglamourous profile of a horse graduating from handicaps you will likely get a decent price about him. With 12/1 currently about I could not put anyone off an e/w punt on Carlingford Lough for this race - I am very keen on him!
Coral Cup - lets leave the handicaps until later in the week, they are hard enough already let alone 9 days in advance when we don't know definite line-ups! Keep a look out for Willie Mullins Blood Cotil though - he has some smart from in the book and is currently sitting with 11-1 on his back. This horse has won a Grade 2 race last year and should come on a bundle for his reappearance in January. He was highly though of last year, only just being touched off in a Grade One at Punchestown, and turned the tables on the victor that day over in France later in the season. Ran at Cheltenham last year in the Fred Winter off a mark of 144, so gets into this off a 1lb lower mark, I'm keen to see what sort of price he is on the day.
Now comes the Sprinter Sacre benefit race...without the great horse after Henderson was forced to rule Sprinter out after not completely satisfying with his work at home. While the Queen Mother has less quality with his absence it is now a far more competitive race as horses previously scared off by the wonder-horse are now reappearing, such as the old favorite Sizing Europe. I can't have current fav in the market Sire De Grugy on my mind, he doesn't convince at Cheltenham, indeed he has been defeated by Kid Cassidy and Captain Conan on his previous visits here, and although mighty impressive LTO at Ascot that was going the other way round and there are doubts over just how good that form is for me. Of the others I'm not hugely taken by any of them. If Arvika Ligeonniere could go this way round he would appeal, but just watch his run in the Arkle last year and that will put you right off him. The old boy Sizing Europe has probably had his day, Benefficient is going for the Ryanair and will likely be joined by Al Ferof, Hinterland could well go for the Arkle as a novice, Alderwood may not be quite good enough at this level, Module would need heavy ground to be effective in this class, Kid Cassidy ran a shocker last time out and only beat Sire De Grugy when receiving 10lbs so if I can't have SDG I shouldn't have Kid Cassidy either, Somersby will run with credit but could also be a bit too old.....If I were going to bet here I'd have an e/w punt on last year's Arkle runner up Baily Green. He is proven round Cheltenham and can jump at speed around the track as well, and his trainer is second to none in his ability to ready one for the day. At a price Baily Green e/w but not a race to get hugely involved in IMO.
Next up is the Cross County race and I'd do what the top jockeys do and grab a cup of tea now! This race doesn't excite me and if I had to put one up it would be Any Currency who trainer Martin Keighley nominates as his best chance of the festival. I still wouldn't back anything here though!
The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle usually attracts those who are not quite good enough for the Triumph hurdle, or who have been given a very nice mark having not shown everything yet! Nicky Henderson's Dawalan has been well backed for this one in recent days having been given a nice mark of 133 by the handicapper. There are plenty of smart ex flat horses in here whose names may catch your eye, Space Ship anyone? However at the time of writing a lot of these horses are doubly engaged in this and the Triumph so I don't want to look into this in too much detail yet. The last two winners of this one were priced at 25/1 and 40/1 so it may pay to look at those away from the head of the market.
Finally we end the day with the Champion bumper, a 2 mile 1/2 a furlong flat race won 4 of the last 9 years by that man Willie Mullins. However just look at the sp's of previous winners of this race...25/1, 16/1, 14/1, 40/1 in the last four years and they tell you it's not as easy as picking the shortest of Mullin's runners in the race. How a Ruby Walsh ridden Willie Mullins trained runner was allowed to go off at 25/1 for this last year will remain one of the mysteries of the 2013 festival though! One I do like here is the Dermot Weld trained Silver Concord though. A 6 year old, he has been given time to strengthen up and looked really good when winning a Leopardstown bumper over the festive period. Although he had been off the track for 17 months prior to that he has had a decent break since his comeback so the bounce factor should be avoided and he could go well again here. As I say he has been given time to strengthen up so I expect him to have the stamina to get up the hill and hopefully he can give Weld that Cheltenham winner that he has missed over the last few years.
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