Even though the Flat made a return to our screens this weekend I don't really get turned on by the summer code until at least the Aintree meeting is out of the way. After Doncaster this weekend we have Monday through to Thursday next week without any turf flat action so to me it seems a real start/stop beginning of the season, especially when we have a cracking meeting at Aintree starting on Thursday, and it starts with a few cracking races on the first day of their three day meeting which I'll have a look at in a few blogs this week. One thing to consider before we look at the races at Aintree is if you want to be backing horses who have had a hard race at Cheltenham only three weeks previous to this. It isn't just the race but the occasion of Cheltenham which can really take it out of a horse and Paul Nicholls, a multiple champion trainer, admitted in a recent feature on the betting.betfair website that often he cannot know before Aintree whether a horse will have fully recovered or not. He went on to say that it is often a case of just letting some horses take their chance, if they have a bad race its the end of the season anyway and if they run well then all the better but it will still be the end of their season, you basically have nothing to lose. As punters we certainly can lose by backing these horses though! Another thing to bear in mind is that the tests posed by the Aintree track are far different to those Cheltenham will throw up; it is a flatter track which can put less of a test on stamina and more on speed which will obviously suit different horses. This offers the potential opportunity of redemption for horses which disappointed at Cheltenham, and there are certainly a few of those lining up on the first day at Aintree so lets have a look at what we can expect on the 3rd April.
The first big race up is the Betfred Bowl at 2:30, a Grade 1 contest over 3 miles 1 furlong. This race is often seen as an ideal way for horses to step up in distance from what they have been competing over at Cheltenham due to the flatter nature of the track, or for horses who may not have quite seen out the Gold Cup trip to gain redemption, and this year is no different. We have one horse with excellent Cheltenham form here, with the Ryanair winner Dynaste stepping up in trip, and the way he was finishing off his Cheltenham race certainly made it seem as if David Pipe's grey will appreciate this trip. Representing decent form from the Gold Cup we have the aforementioned Paul Nicholls Silviniaco Conti who travelled like an absolute dream at Cheltenham before getting done by three fast finishers after the last, however the way he won at King George in December did not indicate he is a horse who needs less of a test of stamina. Furthermore he also looks like needing soft ground to be at his best and the way the weather is going I just can't see Silviniaco getting the ground he needs to show his best. He may well have been inconvenienced by the lack of pace in the Gold Cup that day but I think this season has been a long one for Conti now and I'm prepared to rule him out of this race, especially at the likely price.
Medermit (beaten miles by Dynaste at Cheltenham in the Ryanair), First Lieutenant (withdrawn on the day of the Gold Cup),Boston Bob (suffered the same fate as Medermit), Menorah & Rathlin (See Boston Bob and Medermit), Houblon Des Obeaux (Beaten 24L in the Gold Cup) and Wishful Thinking (Beaten 13L by Sire De Grugy in the Champion Chase) all also come here from Cheltenham seeking a bit of end-of-season redemption leaving only a few horses that come here fresh (remember to include First Lieutenant in those). Of those Argocat has some decent Grade 2 form in the book but nothing amazing, Carruthers' best form is over further and at 11 time is hardly on his side and Roi Du Mee and Toner D'Oudaries have all their best form on soft ground so I think we can rule these out as well. This basically leaves my shortlist for the Betfred Bowl at Dynaste, First Lieutenant and Unioniste of which my favourite for this is Dynaste. Dynaste has previous form around the Aintree course winning over the distance last year in a Novices chase, goes on decent ground and his form in the book is excellent barring his King George performance for which physical reasons were found to be behind that flop. So looking at this season he has that flop but then the grey was only beaten by Cue Card on his reappearance at Haydock this season over this trip, beating Silviniaco Conti, Long Run, Tidal Bay and Bobs Worth, and then routed the field at Cheltenham last time out. Trainer David Pipe is showing no signs of easing off this season and I've also been impressed by Tom Scudamore of late. Scudamore produced some great rides at Cheltenham including an absolute belter in the Arkle on Western Warhorse and having him in the saddle adds to my confidence behind Dynaste. I really like Dynaste for this race, I think he actually won at Cheltenham quite easily in the end and hopefully that will lead to him being a bit fresher for this assignment. The step up in trip obviously is within his compass as previous form shows and he is definitely of Grade 1 class.
First Lieutenant will give him the most to think about in my opinion and also has previous Aintree form as well as some decent runs this season. The probable good ground will be in his favour as well, I just think Dynaste has more potential with the step back up in trip. Unioniste can complete the first three home here for Paul Nicholls beating his more fancied stablemate in the process.
My Betfred Bowl 1,2,3
1-Dynaste
2-First Lieutenant
3-Unioniste
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