An Early Look at the Grand National

As Cheltenham ends its hard to believe that the Grand National is less than 2 weeks away now, around this time of the year we have some quality flat racing action mixed in with the jumps and it is hard to keep fully focused on the jumps. However it's certainly made a bit easier when we have the biggest jumps race of the year, certainly in the public eye if not in the purist eye, on the horizon. Being able to give your mates the winner of this race guarantees you a few free pints down the pub as well as plenty of kudos so lets get stuck into it.

The race could certainly revolve around those at the head of the weights, particularly Tidal Bay and Long Run, extremely classy horses who have been given a real chance at the weights by Paul Smith, who likes to tempt the classier horses into the race by giving them less weight than they would usually carry in a handicap. However with £1,000,000 in prize money up for grabs whether he really should need to do this is up for debate. Tidal Bay has a whopping 7lbs less than he would usually carry in this contest and as such he must have a real chance, especially given his cracking runs in the Lexus and Welsh National so far this season. Sam Twiston-Davies will take the mount and he has winning experience on the enigmatic Tidal Bay, however I'm unsure if his running style, held up usually only involving himself towards the end of the race, will suit the Grand National. With 40 runners and 30 fences to jump over a grueling 4 miles 3&1/2 furlongs running round at the back of the field makes you somewhat a prisoner to fortune. Although the fences have been modified and made easier to jump thanks to plenty of animal rights activists getting involved in the sport there will still be fallers and horses fading backwards through the field at a rapid rate and Tidal Bay will probably be inconvenienced multiple times in the race. Currently available at 16/1 there is no doubt Tidal Bay has a great chance at the weights, he is a classy proven Grade 1 animal who seems better than ever in the twilight years of his career. I am just a little unsure that his running style will not suit the unique nature of this race and although I may have a punt on him just because I love the horse he isn't a recommended bet for the race.

Long Run has been the subject of some positive talk from jockey Sam Waley-Cohen on the morning line recently and has been chopped into 16/1 for the race, the same price as Tidal Bay. However it has been a while since we saw Long Run run to his best and he does seem regressive in recent seasons, his only win since his out of the fire effort to take the King George in 2013 coming in a class 2 chase at 2/5 favourite. Couple this with the awful jumping we have seen Long Run come up with over regulation fences in recent times means he is also passed over.

Teaforthree currently heads the market and is as short as 9/1 in places, ridiculously short in my opinion. He ran really well here last season to finish third and carries 5lbs less than he did in 2013 so does appear to have an obvious chance at the weights. At the 25/1 available when the weights were released he rated a cracking bet, hindsight is a marvelous thing though and a good run at Ascot since then have seen that price long disappear. I'm also slightly concerned he ran in the Gold Cup only 3 weeks before the big race at Aintree and it is hard to believe that he will have recovered fully from that race in my opinion. It's not just running in the Gold Cup, its the whole Cheltenham Occasion, and I don't really understand why Curtis sent Teaforthree there. Without that race I'd be more positive on his chances, and especially at the current price I can also pass Teaforthree over.

This really is a hugely competitive renewal of the race and the strength in depth is tremendous. Hunt Ball, Trio D'Alene, Burton Port, Roi Du Mee, Walkon the list classy horses entered in this year's renewal goes on and on. However there are a couple I'll make an early case for in the hope we see them line up and go well in the big one on the 5th April.

Firstly I like the chances of Monbeg Dude, a previous Welsh National winner so while we cannot be assured he will get the trip his stamina looks to stand him in good stead - put a tick in that box. Monbeg Dude's jumping has also improved hugely in recent times thanks to schooling sessions with Zara Philips and I really like the fact that Aintree has been the target for this horse all season long and possibly longer. Trainer Michael Scudamore has brushed off his defeat up at Doncaster last time out leaving the public in no doubt that that run was all part of the bigger picture in the run up to Aintree and I believe he will have the services of Paul Carberry in the saddle. You could argue that Monbeg Dude will suffer from the same traffic problems as Tidal Bay but we've seen him ridden closer up recently and that may well be with this race in mind. He looks to be on a lovely racing weight of 10-9 currently and at 20/1 rates as a solid ante-post wager.

A few more to check out for you in addition to my main fancy at this stage, after all it is a 40 runner race, are firstly Soll who at number 51 is not guaranteed a run in the race but could sneak in right at the bottom of the handicap and could be worth support at 50/1. Soll gets the trip and jumps the fences as proven by his 7th placed finish last year, the fact hew also has form around Sandown which takes some jumping is also encouraging, and he has the same weight to carry if he gets in this year. Proven form round here is huge, as shown by the Aintree factor Phil Smith factors into the weights allocated to horses, so Soll is in my mind for this race and I'll be watching closely to see if he gets in.

Finally I'll put up Alan King's Godsmejudge, a past winner of the Scottish version of this race who is set to carry 10-11 at Aintree. His reappearance run this year after the enforced break taken by the King yard resulted in him being pulled up, however it may well have been that King just hand't been able to get enough work into Godsmejudge at that point but just wanted to get a run in so that he didn't come straight to Aintree without any sort of prep. That run will have been 7 weeks ago by the time the 40 runners are set on their way, an ideal length of time for King to get some good work into Godsmejudge and at 28/1 is a good price at the moment. The King yard are going really well at the moment and as the season goes on and horses have been on the go a long time the break that the yard took in winter could prove beneficial in terms of freshness and energy levels compared to some yards who have been going non-stop since October.

Thats it for a longish range look at the Grand National, however as the big race draws closer and we get a better idea of the definite field and jockey bookings I'll be back with a further preview. Thanks for reading!