New Year at Cheltenham

Happy New Year!

Let me start by wishing you all a happy new year, lets hope its a successful one! And we can sooth the hangovers and aching heads on the 1st of January by absorbing ourselves in a really good card from Cheltenham in addition to plenty of action elsewhere. However, its the home of Jump racing to which my eye is drawn and Ive gone through the card here in the hope of welcoming in the new year with a few winners! The going, well its heavy, soft in places, so looks like stamina will be at a premium for jockeys as well as horses! If any of the jockeys have overdone the New Years celebrations the Cheltenham hill could be an unwanted feature of the races today...

12:10 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

A cracking race to welcome in the New Year at Cheltenham, this Novices Hurdle features the highly thought of Champers on Ice, Captain Chaos who has finished 2nd in a Grade 2, Drumlee Sunset, Hawkhurst and West Approach for the jockey/trainer combination of the moment. These are all horses with good form in the book, Captain Chaos has probably achieved the most so far over timber, and looks like he will head the market. Of the market principals I'd probably be with West Approach though, he has form over 3 miles round this track, so the stamina test posed on New Year's day shouldn't be a problem, and he has won on heavy ground before as well. Brennan will be riding at the peak of his confidence and I think he will prove hard to beat here.
However with the ground going to be heavy I'm expecting we could see a shock result or two on the card and I'm going to look down the runners for a horse or two to spring a shock in the opener.

Given the form of the yard at the moment I'm going to discount Hawkhurst as the Nicholls horses just don't seem to be running their races at the moment, but stable form also makes me interested in hurdling debutant Coole Charmer for Nicky Henderson. It's a tough race to make hurdling debut in but they must think a lot of him to stick him in here and definitely looks one to watch in the market.

Another to note is the Rebecca Curtis horse Preseli Rock, up in trip here but with plenty of form on heavy going in the book. I am drawn to the Curtis runners who have shown decent form when the yard was under a cloud, the horses are running much better now and I fancy Preseli Rock to improve on what he has shown so far.

I've given a few up there to have a look at in the opener where the notebook should be out in force!

Can Mr Henderson celebrate with a New Year's winner?

12:40 Watch Live Racing On BetBright.com Handicap Chase 

Now this will be some stamina test, 3 miles 2 furlongs on heavy ground - stayers only need apply here! Right, lets go through a few of these; I was drawn to Hollow Blue Sky at the foot of the weights but he ran in this race last year off a 1 lbs higher mark and didn't stay, finishing 8th, and comes here in pretty bad form. Discounting him. I wanted to keep on looking for feather weights so onto De Kerry Man, who has been off the track over 300 days since his last run. Whilst he does have loads of form on the ground this is a step up in trip and after such a long time off he may just need this.

In the end I have had to go quite a long way up in the weights for my selection, which is Alternative from the yard of David Pipe, well versed in landing a Cheltenham handicap or two. A 4 pound rise for his win last time out, over this trip on soft ground, seems fair enough and his 3rd at Cheltenham 2 runs ago looks pretty decent when you consider a lot of the Pipe yard were running below expectations at the time. He is only 6 years old so you would fancy there is a fair bit of improvement in here and I think he looks like one to be on here, despite the quite large weight he has to carry.

1:20 BetBright Realfansonly Novices' Chase (Registered As The Dipper Novices' Chase)

This is a top class renewal of the Dipper with some top form brought to the table. Le Mercury was lucky to win the last day, and with Nicholls not in good from I'm going to pass him by for all he is a horse I like. I'd also be keen to get with a horse receiving weight here and also one with form on the ground, with proven stamina, so the one I'm with here is Aubusson for lady of the moment Lizzie Kelly. Aubusson has smart hurdles form, won really well on chase debut the last day over 3 miles at uttoxeter (so stamina looks assured) and was deemed good enough to have a crack at the World Hurdle last year. Lizzie will be riding with loads of confidence and I think over a course and a distance he has form at (albeit over hurdles) Aubusson can provide Lizzie with another big success.

 Make no mistake though this race will be a cracker, Three Musketeers and Blaklion were very tough to ignore but they do have to concede weight all round, Minella Rocco is no doubt a lovely horse but hasn't fired over fences thus far, and Volnay De Thaix could possibly prefer a bit better ground. See You At Midnight would be an e/w selection to chase Aubusson home for me.

Can Lizzie Kelly get another big race win this Festive period?

1:55 BetBright Best For Festival Betting Handicap Chase 

Here is a favourite I quite want to take on in Village Vic. Now Village Vic was very impressive last time out, winning the Caspin Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham off an 8lbs lower mark, however he is up in the weights here to a mark of 144 and looking back through his form he would look to prefer better ground. And remember that was certainly 'the day' for Village Vic as he was seriously well fancied and had Dickie Johnson sweating down to 10 stone! At around the 7/2 mark there is enough to want to make me look elsewhere in this competitive heat.

A Good Skin is the one for me here, a horse who ran better than the result would show the last day (3rd in the Badger Ales Chase, got no luck in running, has actually been dropped 1 lbs since as well) and is taking a step down in trip here. He has some good form at Cheltenham in the past and also runs well when the ground comes up soft so heavy ground, on a trip shorter than usual, could prove right up his street. I always like Tom George Chasers and Gold Cup winning jockey Paddy Brennan will be doing the steering so from the bottom of the weights A Good Skin is the bet here.

2:30 Betbright Casino Handicap Hurdle

I'd love old warhorse Knockara Beau to win here, his victory in the Cleeve Hurdle in 2014 was absolutely astonishing and if you were on that day at 66/1 (I wasn't!) then he owes you absolutely nothing! However he has also shown absolutely nothing in 2015, being pulled up on his only run, so it is pretty hard to see him winning here, for all it would be some story!

I'm going for a horse at the bottom of the weights who absolutely hacked up on his latest start when upped to this 3 mile trip at Southwell the last day in Singlefarmpayment. Prior to that run he had finished a good 2nd in two handicap chases, but if the step up in trip has unlocked more improvement then I fancy him to go close here off a lovely low weight and with Nico De Boinville on board who is riding really well this year. Preferably chased home by the old boy Knockara Beau though!

3:05 Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle

Another absolutely cracking race featuring the reigning World Hurdle Champion Cole Harden. However after the great performance Identity Thief put up over Christmas, narrowly being denied by Nicholls Canyon in the Ryanair Hurdle, I want to be with Top Notch here, who receives weight from a lot in this field and will adore the ground at Cheltenham. He also loves the Cheltenham track, he was only just denied in the Triumph Hurdle in March 2015. This is a step up in trip but all the form Top Notch has shown so far makes it look like he has bags of stamina and getting weight from the likes of Whisper and Cole Harden make Top Notch the main selection.

Bob's Worth, the unbeaten hurdler, is also very interesting but I feel he will want better ground. I'd love to see him run really well here as I think the World Hurdle could be wide open this year, but I think he may also get slightly tapped for toe over this trip. Whisper and Cole Harden will surely improve on their rather disappointing seasonal debuts at Newbury the last day, however giving weight to the field may prove a bit too much on this ground. With Cole Harden's well publicised breathing issues he will also want better ground that presented here. Smart mare Aurore D'Estruval could be worth monitoring on her first start for Rebecca Curtis but after a year off the track may need this.

Don't ignore the claims of Virgilio for Dan Skelton here either, he may rate a nice e/w bet coming here off the back of three back to back wins and looks highly progressive. Dan has brought him along very nicely and he has won on very soft ground over in France. He looks like he will get the trip, however winning at Aintree and Warwick are very different to winning at Cheltenham and that is the reason I pass him over, for all I can see him running very well at a slightly bigger price than the selection Top Notch.

Can Top Notch prove Top Notch for the blog?

3:40 EBF Stallions & Cheltenham Pony Club Standard Open NH Flat Race

We finish the card with a bumper where I will not be getting too heavily involved! There are plenty of unarmed horses, however I'll put up a selection in the shape of Le Coeur Net. Anthony Honeyball, a trainer who enjoys success in this sphere, trains this one and I think it is significant he has booked Barry Geraghty for the ride.  In his blog for At The Races Barry says

"I ride LE COUER NET (3.40) in the Listed EBF Stallions & Cheltenham Pony Club Standard Open NH Flat Race for Anthony Honeyball.  He has never run before, but four of his siblings have won over jumps in France and Italy, and Anthony’s horses are going well."

However that is literally al I'm going on, I want to take on the Paul Nicholls favourite due to the stable form, and I do not advise heavy bets in this race unless you are privy to some inside information!

Thanks for reading and let's hope we can welcome in 2016 with a few winners!

All the best for the year ahead

Alex