Ante-Post view on the Welsh National

Well after a feast of action over the Christmas and New Year period we've got a quiet few days and I thought I would use this to have a quick look at the Welsh National next week. Obviously we don't have final decs through yet but we can be sure of a few things. 1) The ground will be soft to heavy 2) The trip is 3 miles 5 1/2 furlongs....3) Stamina is required and in bucket loads! So we want to be looking for horses that act on the ground, have form over an extreme distance and ideally something that will turn up!  Prior to the race being called off the Racing Post did help us a bit more by publishing some key trends for the race. These were

Aged 6 to 8 years old: 10/10 (Adjust this to 7-9 years old for the race this year)
Two or fewer runs since the end of September: 9/10
Top 4 finish last time out: 9/10
Previous win over at least 3 miles: 9/10
BHA Rating between 131 and 147: 7/10
Ten or fewer previous starts over fences: 7/10
Weight carried no more than 10.08: 7/10
Previous win at Chepstow (hurdles or fences): 6/10

So armed with that bit of help I'll get to work and try and find a selection or two.

Theatre Guide

Theatre guide is the first of my ante-post picks. Colin Tizzard's horse ran a great race in the Newbury Hennessy to finish a staying on 2nd to Smad Place, the runaway winner. He has run twice since September, so should be fairly fresh, and is 9 years of age, fitting the age stat. Obviously his 2nd place the last day in the Hennessy, over 3 miles 2 furlongs on soft ground, ticks out top 4 finish stat, and all of a sudden we are starting to look OK on the trends boxes! I was really impressed with Theatre Guide that day and he wasn't stopping at the end so this is one horse I am fairly confident of staying the trip. He has had more than his fair share of starts over fences, 16 all in all, but you could deem that good experience if you were looking with a positive slant on things! He has also won at Chepstow way back in 2011 over hurdles so the track should hold no fears. Theatre Guide was definitely a runner for the race before it was cancelled so I see no reason, and have read nothing from Colin, that would indicate he wouldn't be engaged this time.

One thing that worries me is his jumping, he can be a bit sloppy and that could find him out over the numerous fences at the Welsh National, but he last fell in February 2013 so it shouldn't worry us too much. I'd also have liked some winning form over a 3 mile trip but if Smad Place hand't been thrown in the Hennessy off a mark of 155 he would have gained a win there and be far higher in the handicap as a result.

All in all Theatre Guide looks a nice e/w bet as I am confident of him running into a place, and if his jumping holds up well enough to allow him to hold his position I could see the horse running a big race at 16/1.

Theatre Guide comes here off the back of a cracking run in the Hennessy

O'Faolains Boy

This horse could be absolutely thrown in off his mark of 150 and I can't go into the race without having a bet on him. The worry is that Rebecca Curtis won't run him here, he was taken out of the race previously as it was thought he hadn't sufficiently recovered his win at Newbury the last day, where he defeated Sausalito Sunrise as he liked, but with the extra time now provided by the rescheduling of the race hopefully he will come here.

Some of the form O'Faolains Boy has in his book is absolutely top class, he is an RSA Chase winner proving he has guts and stamina to match his class, is a winner at this course on heavy going before, loves the heavy ground he will encounter and has 3 chase wins from 7 runs all around the 3 mile trip so really should have a great chance of staying the distance here.

He is 9 years old, has only run twice since September, won last time out (a top 4 finish clearly), has won over 3 miles, has won at Chepstow before and has only had 7 runs over fences; so many of the key trends are ticked by Curtis's horse it would be criminal if he doesn't turn up! Rebecca rates this horse as Gold Cup class and off a mark of 150 (due to be rated 154 in the future) he could potentially hose up here.

Understandably you may be concerned by his comeback run, where he was pulled up after over a year off the track, but the way he bounced back from that, thrashing Sausalito Sunrise who had previously won at Cheltenham really nicely, should calm those fears. At a price of 12/1 O'Faolains Boy is a confident selection, the only concern being his participation in the race! If his participation is confident I expect this price to come crashing down so will take the gamble and back him now.

O'Faolains Boy could be absolutely chucked in the Welsh National in my opinion

Those are the two I will go to war with at the moment. Honourable mentions must go to last years winner Emperors Choice, Shotgun Paddy who went of favourite for that race and previous winner Mountainous, indeed I may go back in later in the week and add to my duo of runners, but for now I'm happy with Theatre Guide at 16/1 and O'Faolains Boy at 12/1.