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| They will have go go some to match the great Kauto Star in the King George but it looks a top renewal this year |
12:50 - Novices Hurdle
A decent race to open the card with Altior, the Nicky Henderson trained horse, currently heading the market at 6/4, skinny enough for me and enough to tempt me elsewhere. I think Open Eagle will run a big race if the heavens open but he will also be plenty short enough given connections. Meet the Legend has his first run over hurdles for top trainer Dan Skelton and gets weight from those with more experience, he also will be guaranteed a pace in this race to go along with so he will be able to get settled and run his race, could certainly see him hitting the frame at 7/1. However my selection is one of the two Paul Nicholls horses in this race, and I'll take Marracudja over Simon Squirrel, just as Sam Twiston-Davies has done. The selection is 2 from 2 since his summer wind operation, and this soft ground over the minimum distance is perfect for him. I fancy Sam to get him out front early on and at a course that really favours front-running horses he will be hard enough to peg back and rates a knocking e/w bet at 4/1. Can't see him out the frame and really fancy him to win.
1:25 - Novices Limited Handicap Chase
A trappy race here, with cases to be made for plenty but hard to find a solid selection. Bekkensfirth will probably head the market down at the bottom of the weights after his chase debut win but he is up 10 lbs for that win and in a competitive race that could be enough to halt his winning run for now. Same can be said for Anthony, who won last time out when his trainer was in absolutely amazing form and with that weight increase could also find this slightly too hot.
Full Shift seems like he has a race in him but is getting a bit frustrating now, however it is interesting to note his last win did come at this track and for all I couldn't recommend a bet on him he would be a shock winner. Germany Calling would prefer a sounder surface, West Wizard was so frustrating over hurdles I have to just let him run here and How About It is up in the weights for a modest 3rd the last day so can be overlooked.
I'm finally getting round to my selection in this race and for me it was hard to choose between Sirabad, Buckhorn Timothy and Unique De Cotte. The latter comes here on chase debut and could be on a good mark if he makes a better chaser than a hurdler, however Pipe is not in great form and this is enough for me to overlook him. Therefore I come down to Sirabad and Buckhorn Timothy and purely at the prices I make Buckhorn Timothy the selection. Sirabad will love the ground and ran much better the last day than on debut, I know the stable think a bit of him and I think his mark is definitely winnable. But at over twice the price I'm going for Buckhorn Timothy whose trainer Colin Gizzard is enjoying a fantastic season. The trainer reported he got stuck in the mud a bit at Chepstow the last day, hardly surprising considering how bad the ground can get there, and was a super easy winner the time before that on similar ground to that he will find at Kempton. He goes well round a speedy track like Footwell so Kempton should also suit and he is still on the same mark as his decent but excusable run last time out. At 10/1 he can be bet e/w as I really like his chance of hitting the frame.
2:00 - Kauto Star Novices Chase
A three mile chase for Novices where the market will be headed by Native River and Tea for Two. However I think we can look beyond these two shorties for our selections as I'm not massively convinced that Kempton will play to Native River's strengths, he looks to be all about stamina to me and may get tapped for toe a little round here, while Tea for Two may not quite stay 3 miles, he was pulled up on his last attempt at it, and these doubts are enough to get me looking elsewhere.
Bally Beaufort was narrowly overlooked, he is 2 from 2 over fences and likes this three mile trip, as he may just find this Grade 1 race a bit too much of a step up in class having been winning in Grade 3 races thus far. As De Mee has run well in defeat this season but all his form is over shorter and the same doubts I have over Tea for Two can apply here.
The selection for me here is Southfield Royale for the Neil Mulholland yard, a stable enjoying a really good season and this is a horse I like a lot. He is also a Grace 2 winner, on heavy ground over this trip, so clearly has the stamina required. Prior to that he thrashed the highly rated Zeroshadesofgrey and has enough speed to have won over 2 miles 4 furlongs so I don't doubt his ability to act round here. At an attractive 6/1 Southfield Royal is the bet here.
2:35 - Christmas Hurdle
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| Reigning Champion Hurdler Faugheen comes here off the back of a shock defeat |
A hard enough betting race as the reigning Champion Hurdler Faugheen rocks up here and even after his defeat the last day he is by far an away the most likely winner. However I'm not here to tip up 1/6 shots, especially those who come here on the back of a defeat, and I'll look for some value to follow him home.
I'm not convinced by The New One because of the worries about this Kissing Spine that was troubling him last season. The fact Sam deserts him here, plus Nigel has been fairly vocal that his charge will not be 100% after missing work is enough to get me looking elsewhere. Old Guard is short enough considering this race is a bit of an afterthought and his best form comes at Cheltenham which is a completely different test to the that posed by the Kempton track. Finally Sign of a Victory will hate the ground.
Even though Hargam would much prefer better ground he does act on soft, as proven by his great run in last years Triumph Hurdle on soft ground to finish third. He also ran well the last day to be beaten under 2 lengths by Old Guard, however I think he can turn that form around given he will be more at home and more favoured by the speed test Kempton offers. He is also a much bigger price! At 16/1 Hargam is my e/w play, or even bet him in one of the without the favourite markets. Faugheen should hose up here though.
3:10 - The King George
What a renewal. As previously mentioned the field lining up for this Grade 1 is absolutely top-notch. However there are also doubts over a fair few at the head of the market and I'll outline these as I attempt to justify my position in the race!
Don Cossack looks a rock solid favourite and is the right favourite in my opinion for all he is short enough. His two races this season will have him fit for this and he has won nicely as he was expected to do both times. Having won the Punchestown Gold Cup over 3 miles 1 furlong, and not stopping at the end as he did this, his stamina looks assured and the only slight doubt is the ground; the Don would prefer a sounder surface but does have winning form on soft. Will also be suited by the way the race is run with guaranteed pace in it with so many front running horses. The one they all have to beat.
Vautour is one I want to take on for all he is potentially the most classy of all of these. A brilliant winner of last years JLT at Cheltenham he is very much the sexy horse in the race. However this is quite a step up in trip and his stamina will be stretched as it has never been before especially with the pace angles in this race. The way he jumped out at Ascot the last day was also concerning, he can't have those jumping doubt here as the early pace could have him falling, and we must be concerned that he was abysmal when running at this time of the year last season. For all he could outclass these and be the next Kauto Star there are enough doubts around him for me to want to take him on at around 3/1/
Cue Card seems a totally different horse this year after a well publicised breathing operation over the summer. He has since come out and won twice, the Charlie Hall and the Betfair Chase, and comes here with confidence high. However I cannot help remembering that he has been here a few times before and failed before, even when coming here on the back of winning runs. Could it be that Kempton just doesn't suit him? If breathing was the reason he completely stopped when in front 2 out and let Silvinaco Conti in for the win a few years ago, and that has now been cured, he could run a huge huge race. But I don't want to be branded insane for doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different result and for that reason I'll swerve Cue Card.
Smad Place comes here off the back of an all the way win in the Hennessy, a fantastic win and one which saw an absolutely beautiful display of jumping to boot. When he gets to the front Smad Place is a joy to watch, pinging each fence and showing stamina in bucket loads. If there was less of a contest for the lead in the King George then I would be really keen on Smad, however the fact that Cue Card, Vautour and Silvinaco Conti will all want to lead makes me a bit worried Smad Place won't get the lead he likes that allows him to perform so well. If he gets to the front he will be ultra hard to peg back, and maybe this could be an angle for the in running players, but for me I can't advice Smad pre-race because of this concern.
Silvinaco Conti is a two time winner of this race but hasn't seemed himself this season. This could be because of the issue with his legs that apparently as hindered him in his work in the run up to the Betfair Chase at Haydck but I can't help feeling that this race is much stronger than the renewals in which Conti was a winner. His first win in the race came when Cue Card completely stopped in front when looking a surefire winner, the 2nd came when beating the likes of Dynaste and a non-stayer in Champagne Fever. Fair play to Conti for winning this race twice before but I think this renewal will be far too strong for him, for all I could see his undoubted stamina allowing him to reach the frame especially if the ground is very soft.
Al Ferof is a horse best fresh, so for all he was impressive in winning the Peterborough Chase last time out I think he would have run better in this race if he had missed that race and come here fresh. However it could be that Dan Skelton is training him in a way that Nicholls didn't, I've read stuff about underwater treadmills and the like, but he has come up short in this race many a time before and may not have the stamina required for the 3 mile trip, especially with the pace in this race. He is one I can happily pass over.
Valseur Lido ran a really nice run on reappearance, running over a trip that is likely to be too short (should improve for this step up in trip in my opinion) to finish a staying on 2nd behind Djakadam, beating the likes of Clarcam and Gilgamboa who would be more at home over 2 miles 4 furlongs. That run will have him spot on for this race, 3 miles round Kempton will suit him down to a tee from what we have seen so far and he also acts on soft ground. Certainly won't be getting involved in the contest for the lead and I can see him staying on into a place.
Irish Cavalier has been thrashed by Valseur Lido before and if I was looking for an e/w bet I'd rather be on Valseur Lido, especially with VL more suited by this stamina test in my opinion. Lastly Ballynagour should not be good enough on all known form and ran shockingly last time out.
So to summarise my thoughts on the race Don Cossack is my win bet, he looks totally solid at the head of the market and has the least amount of chinks in his armoury from what I can see.
Valseur Lido is my fancy to run well at a big price and stay on into a place.
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| King George Win selection Don Cossack |
3:45 - Handicap Hurdle
After all he excitement (hopefully) of this King George we end with a decent little handicap hurdle and I'll take 2 against the field here.
Sugar Baron is quite exciting here for the Henderson yard but the stable are not in the best of form, they have only had 20 or so runners in the whole of December which is tiny for the yard, and at 4/1 in a 16 runner field, on seasonal debut, he is short enough. If the yard were firing in the winners I'd be much more interested but I'll let him run here. You fancy Gunner Fifteen will be a short price as well for Harry Fry, a yard who actually are in flying form, but for my selections I'll be going bigger prices.
The first pick is Little Boy Boru for Suzy Smith. Little Boy Boru ran at Kempton in a C&D handicap in January last year on soft ground, finishing 2nd to Tea for Two and beating the likes of Del Arca so decent form. He is actually now 6 lbs below the mark he performed so credibly from and back at the course he clearly likes I can see him outrunning his price of 25/1.
The second selection is Keltus for Paul Nicholls. He has had one of the famous breathing operations over the summer, which apparently held him back a bit, so his comeback run at Sandown the other day will have been much needed. He will surely come on a bundle for that run and I think this may be the season he realises the high hopes the stable had for him a few years back. If the breathing operation has worked the oracle then 16/1 rates a knocking e/w bet. I'm sure you will permit me two goes at the race when they are 25 and 16/1!
Boxing Day Kempton
12:50 Marracudja
1:25 Buckhorn Timothy
2:00 Southfield Royal
2:35 Hargam e/w
3:10 Don Cossack win, Valseur Lido e/w
3:45 Little Boy Boru e/w and Keltus e/w
And there we have it! The Kempton card in full, let's just hope there are a few winners in there to accompany an absolutely belting day of sport this Boxing Day.
Enjoy and Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all!
Alex
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