Friday Selections
Triumph Hurdle
A race that could turn into a benefit night for owner Simon Munir as he owns Peace and Co (hot favourite), Top Notch and Baraka de Thaix; could he really have the first three home? Surely not but the one I like the most of his is Top Notch who I believe to be the most professional of the three and the one most likely to give his running in the lively atmosphere that will greet this field. After all this is the first race of the biggest day of the Festival, the crowd are likely to be fairly raucous! Top Notch is unbeaten in all 5 starts and hurdles beautifully, he is only proven up to class 2 level and hasn't beaten much but he has done all he has been asked too and looks full of potential. At 10/1 I cannot see him out the frame and is a much more attractive bet than Peace and Co at 5/2.
Karazak looks sure to give his running and will be in the first 5 I'd reckon, however isn't good enough on all known form and looks plenty exposed enough. The other I'm really excited to see here is Hargam, another from the Henderson yard. Now I wouldn't rule out a Henderson 1-2-3 here! This horse will love the good ground we look like getting, has Cheltenham form and was very impressive the last time up at Musselburgh, where he went in search of decent going. If the ground was riding really quick he would overtake Top Notch as my selection as he looks the more likely to produce a better run on those conditions, at 13/2 he is short enough now though and I prefer the 10/1 about Top Notch.
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| Simon Munir's colours will be very hard to keep out the frame |
Karazak looks sure to give his running and will be in the first 5 I'd reckon, however isn't good enough on all known form and looks plenty exposed enough. The other I'm really excited to see here is Hargam, another from the Henderson yard. Now I wouldn't rule out a Henderson 1-2-3 here! This horse will love the good ground we look like getting, has Cheltenham form and was very impressive the last time up at Musselburgh, where he went in search of decent going. If the ground was riding really quick he would overtake Top Notch as my selection as he looks the more likely to produce a better run on those conditions, at 13/2 he is short enough now though and I prefer the 10/1 about Top Notch.
County Handicap Hurdle
I'm on Cheltenian here for the Philip Hobbs yard, a horse good enough to win the champion bumper in the past so brings some course experience to the table. He ran his best run for some time in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury last time out and the form of that run is working out well, with the 3rd horse running really well in the Coral Cup and Ebony Express (going really well when falling 2 out) won the ultra competitive Imperial Cup at Sandown last weekend. Chelteniam handles a variety of ground, so the forecast rain isn't an issue, and Richard Johnson has been talking this up as his ride of the week at preview nights. I'll take this former Champion Bumper horse to grab more festival glory, but at the price (14/1) an e/w investment is my approach.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
I'm going to go for the Father-Son combination of Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies here and back Blaklion who looks massively overpriced at 14/1. The horse acts well round Cheltenham, see his win over c&d in December 2014 and produces his best over this 3 mile trip rather than the shorter 20/21 furlong trips he has been seen over. Add to that we have a jockey upgrade as Sam TD takes the reigns from good claiming jockey Ryan Hatch for the first time since his debut over hurdles and we look to have all the makings of a knocking e/w bet especially at the price.
Maybe it is because he has come into this slightly under the radar, ok so he was beaten a head last time out by Caracci Apache from the Henderson yard but a head can be overturned by Blaklion's form at Cheltenham whereas C.A. is unproven over these undulations. Just look at the price of the likes of Black Hercules who is only proven up to Grade 3 over hurdles (the selection has Grade 1 form, and winning form in Grade 2 races). No More Heroes is a horse I have a lot of time for but I'm not sure why he is 7/1 when he is unproven over 3 miles as of yet, let alone a still 3 miles like Cheltenham presents. No I think Blaklion rates as a great bet at 14/1.
Maybe it is because he has come into this slightly under the radar, ok so he was beaten a head last time out by Caracci Apache from the Henderson yard but a head can be overturned by Blaklion's form at Cheltenham whereas C.A. is unproven over these undulations. Just look at the price of the likes of Black Hercules who is only proven up to Grade 3 over hurdles (the selection has Grade 1 form, and winning form in Grade 2 races). No More Heroes is a horse I have a lot of time for but I'm not sure why he is 7/1 when he is unproven over 3 miles as of yet, let alone a still 3 miles like Cheltenham presents. No I think Blaklion rates as a great bet at 14/1.
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| I fancy a father-son victory in the Albert Bartlett |
The Gold Cup
One question that you have to ask yourself when assessing this race is can Silviniaco Conti, top rated, the only horse in the field rated 170+ currently and the horse with the best form this season, replicate his flat track form around Cheltenham? If you think so then this is an open shut case as he looks to be the best horse in the race on his preferred track. Arguably he does act round Cheltenham as you don't jump the final fence of a Gold Cup in the lead if you don't act at the track, however I haven't a clue what he was up to after the last and that has to be a concern. Add to that we should get good ground on Friday and Conti would prefer a bit of give and I think we can look for one at an e/w price to take him on with.
If you fancy an e/w shout I think you can do a lot worse ON GOOD GROUND!!! than last year's winner Lord Windermere. This horse comes into his own at Cheltenham on good ground; whereas many of his rivals would prefer a bit of give in the ground LW definitely prefers decent going and will show his best on it. He has top class course form; RSA winner, Gold Cup winner, you don't get much better than that! He has been targeted at this race by his trainer since winning last year and everything he has done this season is purely warming up to the big one. He has improved for each run, which is encouraging, posting his best performance to day last time out. Davy Russell is plenty happy enough with his mount if you listen to the man at the preview nights he has been doing and I like Lord Windermere to get at least a place so is the e/w selection. I stress good ground, if the ground gets soft do not touch this horse and look instead to my alternative selection later on...
It is hard to pass Holywell over but I'm not sure Ritchie is the best jockey for a horse that is best ridden with a great deal of push from the saddle; Ritchie is a bit more softly softly and I'd be much more keen with the Champ on top. Road to Riches will love the ground but did the Lexus he won fall into his lap slightly? Sam Winner is definitely worth a quid e/w if the rain arrives and the ground turns soft as I could actually see him running on into a place with his endless stamina if they go quick up front, even more likely with Coneygree in the line up. He has run really well so far this season, stays longer than the mother in law, and will surely be ridden for a place here. While lacking the class to win a race like this I could easily see him plugging on late in the day and on soft ground he would be the e/w bet here.
Of the rest Bobs Worth hasn't shown his best for some time now, Djakadam could be a tad too inexperienced for a race of this nature although undoubtedly talented, Carlongford Lough will probably be overbet with the AP factor at play and would also not like any rain, Many Clouds would need softer ground and looks best at Newbury and The Giant Bolster surely isn't good enough?
The selections here Lord Windermere and Sam Winner, both e/w. We look like getting rain at some point on Friday; if this doesn't materialise or isn't excessive Lord Windermere would be a stronger selection, if the heavens do open then Sam Winner comes into play with his bottemless stamina reserves.
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| The 2014 renewal of the Gold Cup was an absolute thriller |
If you fancy an e/w shout I think you can do a lot worse ON GOOD GROUND!!! than last year's winner Lord Windermere. This horse comes into his own at Cheltenham on good ground; whereas many of his rivals would prefer a bit of give in the ground LW definitely prefers decent going and will show his best on it. He has top class course form; RSA winner, Gold Cup winner, you don't get much better than that! He has been targeted at this race by his trainer since winning last year and everything he has done this season is purely warming up to the big one. He has improved for each run, which is encouraging, posting his best performance to day last time out. Davy Russell is plenty happy enough with his mount if you listen to the man at the preview nights he has been doing and I like Lord Windermere to get at least a place so is the e/w selection. I stress good ground, if the ground gets soft do not touch this horse and look instead to my alternative selection later on...
It is hard to pass Holywell over but I'm not sure Ritchie is the best jockey for a horse that is best ridden with a great deal of push from the saddle; Ritchie is a bit more softly softly and I'd be much more keen with the Champ on top. Road to Riches will love the ground but did the Lexus he won fall into his lap slightly? Sam Winner is definitely worth a quid e/w if the rain arrives and the ground turns soft as I could actually see him running on into a place with his endless stamina if they go quick up front, even more likely with Coneygree in the line up. He has run really well so far this season, stays longer than the mother in law, and will surely be ridden for a place here. While lacking the class to win a race like this I could easily see him plugging on late in the day and on soft ground he would be the e/w bet here.
Of the rest Bobs Worth hasn't shown his best for some time now, Djakadam could be a tad too inexperienced for a race of this nature although undoubtedly talented, Carlongford Lough will probably be overbet with the AP factor at play and would also not like any rain, Many Clouds would need softer ground and looks best at Newbury and The Giant Bolster surely isn't good enough?
The selections here Lord Windermere and Sam Winner, both e/w. We look like getting rain at some point on Friday; if this doesn't materialise or isn't excessive Lord Windermere would be a stronger selection, if the heavens do open then Sam Winner comes into play with his bottemless stamina reserves.
Foxhunter Chase
The profession jockeys take a breather here after the Gold Cup and the amature riders get their chance to shine. I must confess Irish P2P form is not my strong point so I'm not too sure where to start here; I'll reach for a few stats to kick me off. Look to horses younger than 11 as 22 of the last 24 winners were all under this age,also last time out winners do very well - responsible for 23 of the last 29 winners.Interestingly Paul Nicholls last 7 runners in this have been beaten, not great news for No Loose Change. Top rated will be On The Fringe but he has been here before and doesn't quite stay the trip. As a token selection I'm drawn to Paint the Clouds for Warren Greatrex, the stable having enjoyed a World Hurdle victory on Thursday. Paint the Clouds comes here off the back of 4 wins on the trot, each rated higher than the last so looks to be on the up, beating smart horse Quinz last time out and has the services of top amature Sam Waley-Cohen who certainly knows how to win around here. In a race I know little about I'll take Paint the Clouds at 4/1.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
The boys race. Another race where the professional jockeys sit out and let the conditionals have their glory. One I really fancy here is a Grade 1 winner, a horse who has beaten Tell Us More who went on to run well in the Supreme on the opening day, who has won over the distance, can handle a variety of ground conditions and is somehow on a mark of 136 for this race. McKinley is the fancy here and he looks to have an absolutely cracking mark considering form in the book. Trained by the master Willie Mullins who is enjoying another great week I really want to be with McKinley here as I think for a Grade 1 winner he is thrown in. Perhaps that form has been underestimated because he was the outsider of his stable's runners? Still I won't complain and McKinley is the selection in the penultimate race of the 2015 festival.
AP McCoy Grand Annual
One thing is for sure here and that is that Ned Buntline, in the JP colours with AP McCoy on board, will go off a seriously short price! Apart from that I'll return to this race once entries are confirmed but you can back Ned Buntline now and lay off on the day for a free bet as I can see him going off around 3/1, especially if AP has a good week.
I fancy Next Sensation here for Michael Scudamore. You may member this horse as the one that went off at an absolutely suicidal pace in this race last year only to unsurprisingly not last home. He was beaten less than 2 lengths in the end, absolutely great effort considering his starting pace, and I marked this down as a great run and a winner in waiting ridden with more restraint next time out. Unfortunately Next Sensation hasn't managed to replicate that form since but the trainer has had this horses wind done since his last run (before Christmas) and laid him out for this race. With improvement hopefully to come after that wind op, and ridden a bit more sensibly, I think Next Sensation can give us something to cheer in this final race, the AP McCoy Grand Annual.
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| Will this man cap his final Cheltenham festival with a winner in the race named after him? |
I fancy Next Sensation here for Michael Scudamore. You may member this horse as the one that went off at an absolutely suicidal pace in this race last year only to unsurprisingly not last home. He was beaten less than 2 lengths in the end, absolutely great effort considering his starting pace, and I marked this down as a great run and a winner in waiting ridden with more restraint next time out. Unfortunately Next Sensation hasn't managed to replicate that form since but the trainer has had this horses wind done since his last run (before Christmas) and laid him out for this race. With improvement hopefully to come after that wind op, and ridden a bit more sensibly, I think Next Sensation can give us something to cheer in this final race, the AP McCoy Grand Annual.
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