Cheltenham Wednesday; Day 2 Selections

Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle

I like Windsor Park for this race, and definitely fancy him to turn around form with Nichols Canyon over this longer trip. I think NC should be going down the Supreme route as he will be best off going from the front over 2 miles; I think if they try and hold him up behind horses to get the trip here his jumping will come under too much pressure with horses around him. The selection has a good amount of flat speed, stays the 20f trip and will improve for the better ground. Dermot Weld is a dab hand at getting his horses right on the day and I fancy Windsor Park to take this opener. 

RSA Chase

This is an open and shut case for me; Don Poli wins.

Don Poli on his way to winning the Topaz

Basically I was hugely disappointed by Kings Palace last time out and don't think his jumping will stand up to the heat of an RSA having done his winning over fences in small field events. Coneygree could well go for the Gold Cup but if he comes here I fear he and Kings Palace could cut each other's throats up front. Also note Nico De Boinville will not be able to claim his 3lbs in this race, effectively leaving Coneygree 3lbs wrong before we start. 

I think The Young Master should go for the 4 miler which he would surely win but I'm not sure he will be quite good enough here. However he is hugely progressive and is hard to totally rule out; he has plenty of big field experience against hardened handicappers and looks a great bet to make the frame. But look at that form Don Poli has; he won arguably the best Novices Chase run so far this season last time out, seemingly all about stamina which will make him perfectly suited by this grueling test. Prior to that he won at Gowran over 20f, showing a nice turn of foot to go with his tenacity. Mullins has him down as a future Gold Cup horse and I am thrilled he is coming here rather than going for the 4 miler. Already rated good enough to have won the last two renewals of this race he is the best horse in this and wins

Coral Cup 

This race gives me another chance to follow Goodwood Mirage off a cliff! However I've been with him all season and he finally looks like getting the good ground I've been waiting for. Jonjo O'Neil has finally come into form having been in rank form earlier in the year which is encouraging as well. Goodwood Mirage definitely has the speed to take a race like this, the step up in trip is interesting and could eek out improvement as well given he is proven over longer trips on the flat. In a race where many have been laid out for we want a big price to go to war with and at 25/1 Goodwood Mirage is the each way fancy

Can the crafty Jonjo land another big handicap punt?

Queen Mother Champion Chase

This renewal is wide open, and who would have thought 2 years ago you could say that with Sprinter Sacre in the field. But he comes into the race with question marks after his well publicised issues with his heart, last years winner Sire De Grugy has had injury problems and also shoe issues according to Gary Moore. We have the hugely improved Dodging Bullets but he needs to prove he can be as good in March as his is in December (look back at previous form, he goes off the boil in Spring however Paul Nicholls is training him differently this year). Add the that the lovable rouge Mr Mole, Mullins sending Champagne Fever back over the minimum distance after not appearing to stay the King George trip at Christmas and Special Tiara, who will go tearing off in front and treating us to a display of bold jumping. A fascinating race for sure!

I'll put up Champagne Fever for this; he is at his best when allowed to go at his own pace, not being held up, and jump for fun, which he will be able to do here. He boasts really good Cheltenham form, 2nd in last year's Arkle (how he didn't win that I'll never know!), 1st in a Supreme and 1st in the Bumper they year before that; the horse loves this place! Ruby Walsh will ride and will get Champagne Fever in a good rhythm, we know his well being is assures and I'm sure he will give us a run for our money.

If back to his imperious best Sprinter Sacre will hose home, but that is a huge IF!

Cross Country Chase

Not my specialist race that's for sure! However, in a race that the big name jockeys usually avoid I think it could be significant that Sam Twiston-Davis takes the plunge in the race to ride Sire Collonges, who I've heard Sam put up as his ride of the meeting! He has form over the fences, his 3rd behind Balthazar King here in November is smart, and also proves he gets the trip. In a race I wouldn't be too keen on getting hugely involved with Sire Collonges is the selection

The Unique Cross Country Fences present a different test

Fred Winter

I fancy Zarib here to break the festival duct of young Dan Skelton, a trainer who definitely will be winning many more races at the Fez in seasons to come. This race is only ten runnings old but there are some stats to look at; 7 of the 10 winners had only run the minimum 3 times over hurdles so they can get a mark for this and all 10 winners had run from February onwards. Zarib fits both of those trends! He won last time out well, finished 3rd round Cheltenham to Peace and Co and Karazak in January and looks to be on a nice mark for this race. Zarib for me.


Champion Bumper

Oh dear oh dear. Another race where I usually would not get involved with! However I know previous winning form is key here with 20 of the last 22 winners having won last time out as well. This race is traditionally farmed by the Irish and I'll go for a rare Gigginstown runner in this race in the shape of General Principle. This horse has won on his sole start on these shores, a flat race at Punchestown at the start of Feb, and I think it interesting that the owners are pointing him towards this race considering they don't usually bother with it. Perhaps they think they have a proper chance of winning it this year and I'll take a chance on their General Principle.