Thursday Selections
JLT Novices Chase
I'm taking on Vautour here with Apache Stronghold from the Noel Meade yard. Paul Carberry has put this one up as his ride of the week and I agree that he has a smashing chance over this 2 mile 4 furlong trip. He was outstayed by Don Poli over 3 miles, no shame in that, in the Topaz Chase two runs ago and showed that his best form will come over this trip the last time when beating Valseur Lido and The Tullow Tank, both of whom could re-oppose on Thursday.
Vautour will go off favourite but the only time he hasn't been given an easy time up front he has made a horrid mistake at a fence. He definitely won't get an easy lead here and I think the question marks remain over his fencing ability under pressure. Ptit Zig comes here off the back of a fall, for all his form is top notch horses coming into the Fez off the back of a fall have a measly 3% strike rate so I have to leave him alone. Valseur Lido is held by my fancy on their latest run and Apache Stronghold at around 6/1 is the bet here.
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| Apache Stronghold is the play in the opener |
Vautour will go off favourite but the only time he hasn't been given an easy time up front he has made a horrid mistake at a fence. He definitely won't get an easy lead here and I think the question marks remain over his fencing ability under pressure. Ptit Zig comes here off the back of a fall, for all his form is top notch horses coming into the Fez off the back of a fall have a measly 3% strike rate so I have to leave him alone. Valseur Lido is held by my fancy on their latest run and Apache Stronghold at around 6/1 is the bet here.
Pertempts Network Final
One stat I really like for this race is that in the last 17 years only Fingal Bay the last year has won one of the qualifiers for this race in the run up to actually winning the final at the Festival! Just look back at the replays of some of the qualifiers and you will see numerous examples of top class 'tender' rides!
One of the most tender of rides can be seen on Edeymi last time at Musselburgh, this is worth watching! The only think the jockey that day didn't do was stroke his horse as he was 'delivering' him with a challenge, and a riding enquiry ensued, but the horse was allowed to keep his 4th place and earn him a place in this lineup. Martin loves a good handicap smash up and this horse looks to have masses in hand of his mark of 135, it's just a question over whether there is something else in this field that has more in hand! However we know Edeymi has a huge amount in hand and that's good enough for me to put him up here.
One of the most tender of rides can be seen on Edeymi last time at Musselburgh, this is worth watching! The only think the jockey that day didn't do was stroke his horse as he was 'delivering' him with a challenge, and a riding enquiry ensued, but the horse was allowed to keep his 4th place and earn him a place in this lineup. Martin loves a good handicap smash up and this horse looks to have masses in hand of his mark of 135, it's just a question over whether there is something else in this field that has more in hand! However we know Edeymi has a huge amount in hand and that's good enough for me to put him up here.
Ryanair Chase
My selection months back was Don Cossack for this race but at the prices now I would not get involved again. This race looks a fairly competitive renewal and all the Don's for this season is going the other way round on soft ground, he fell the only time he has tried Cheltenham and those concerns are enough to swerve him at current prices for all he does look a totally reformed horse this season.
I'll put up a horse who certainly does have Cheltenham form, he won last years JLT, and that is Taquin Du Seuil for the Jonjo O'Neil team at a huge 16/1. Ignore his three runs this season, he doesn't stay 3 miles and the stable was in rank form. Look back at his form last season, top novice form with the beating of many top horses; the late Oscar Whiskey, Uxizandre, Wonderful Charm... Back down in trip but on the stiff Cheltenham track really suits this horse and he is a great e/w price.
Interestingly Wonderful Charm has had a wind op since his last run and Paul Nicholls rates him as a great e/w bet; he has even had some of the 25/1 himself!
I'll put up a horse who certainly does have Cheltenham form, he won last years JLT, and that is Taquin Du Seuil for the Jonjo O'Neil team at a huge 16/1. Ignore his three runs this season, he doesn't stay 3 miles and the stable was in rank form. Look back at his form last season, top novice form with the beating of many top horses; the late Oscar Whiskey, Uxizandre, Wonderful Charm... Back down in trip but on the stiff Cheltenham track really suits this horse and he is a great e/w price.
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| Taquin Du Seuil on his way to winning the JLT in 2014 |
Interestingly Wonderful Charm has had a wind op since his last run and Paul Nicholls rates him as a great e/w bet; he has even had some of the 25/1 himself!
World Hurdle
Unfortunately we go into this race missing last year's 1-2 in More of That and Annie Power. However this does leave this race looking wide open as we look for a new champion. Unfortunately Rock on Ruby is also now confirmed missing as he was a horse who I like for this.
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| Will Monksland finally fulfill his huge potential this year? |
In his absence I'm putting up Monksland as a knocking e/w bet at 16/1. This horse will absolutely love the good ground we are likely to get at Cheltenham this year; a fragile horse who has been difficult to train it looks like Noel Meade may have managed to get him to the Festival this year and I think he will run really well. On his first run for a year he was only just beaten on the like by Dedigout last time on ground he would have hated, I definitely think on better ground he reverses that form. He had Zaidpour and Briar Hill in behind that day and look at some of his form from 2012, it is top class staying form. I think this is the year Monksland finally gets the chance to show what he has the potential to at Cheltenham and he looks a great e/w price.
Brown Advisory Plate
This is one race the Irish fare poorly in having never had a winner of it! I'm going with Un Ace here from the Kim bailey yard, AP booked and coming here off the back of the famous breathing operation. Kim was on the Sunday Forum recently and didn't rule out this horse finding as much as 5 lengths on his previous running after this tweak as McCoy has commented how it was stopping him breath at the business end of the race. Interestingly McCoy is back on board here, if he didn't think the wind op would bring about improvement I am sure he would have gone elsewhere for his ride!
Un Ace has the Cheltenham form that we so adore in a selection, running a good 2nd to Champagne West last time out on ground he wouldn't have loved and also with this wind issue. They think this horse good enough to warrant running him in the Supreme last year and back on good ground tomorrow, over a distance he has won at, with his breathing tweaked I think that we could see a much improved performance from Un Ace and he is the bet in a tricky handicap.
Un Ace has the Cheltenham form that we so adore in a selection, running a good 2nd to Champagne West last time out on ground he wouldn't have loved and also with this wind issue. They think this horse good enough to warrant running him in the Supreme last year and back on good ground tomorrow, over a distance he has won at, with his breathing tweaked I think that we could see a much improved performance from Un Ace and he is the bet in a tricky handicap.
Kim Muir Handicap Chase
In a race limited to amateur riders I will add a selection here once riders have been finalised as so much depends on the jockey put up on each horse.
Now decs have come through I'm going for Just a Par for the Paul Nicholls team, the trainer booking top jockey in these events Will Biddick. Just a Par does nothing quickly but ran with credit in the RSA chase last year, jumping the Cheltenham fences and finishing a decent 7th. He was also back here in January running a very good 4th in the Betbright chase, only 4 lengths off the winner, so clearly goes well at the course.
It could be that the venture into a race with amature riders can spark some improvement, some horses really like these evens, and we know he can jump and run well round the course. It a race I wouldn't take too strong an opinion on due to the nature of it Just a Par is the e/w selection at 14/1.
Now decs have come through I'm going for Just a Par for the Paul Nicholls team, the trainer booking top jockey in these events Will Biddick. Just a Par does nothing quickly but ran with credit in the RSA chase last year, jumping the Cheltenham fences and finishing a decent 7th. He was also back here in January running a very good 4th in the Betbright chase, only 4 lengths off the winner, so clearly goes well at the course.
It could be that the venture into a race with amature riders can spark some improvement, some horses really like these evens, and we know he can jump and run well round the course. It a race I wouldn't take too strong an opinion on due to the nature of it Just a Par is the e/w selection at 14/1.
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