Post Cheltenham News Wrap

Well post-Cheltenham I suppose we can't be at all surprised but this week has been fairly quiet on the horse racing front, with the majority of the news of interest revolving around horses who have run at Cheltenham and where they might go next, with Aintree and Punchestown the focus of attention for the National Hunt fans. I've got a round up of some possible running plans for us to consider

Aintree

• Whisper, a creditable 5th in the World Hurdle, will go for the Liverpool Hurdle at the meeting where owner Dai Walters thinks the benefit of the Cheltenham run plus the flatter track at Aintree will lead to Whisper going close in the race he won last year.
• World Hurdle winner Cole Harden may also be seen at Aintree, with Warren Greatrex reporting his charge to have come out of Cheltenham bouncing. Apparently he has taken the race amazingly and will, all being well, go to Aintree for the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle.
• Jockey Jason Maguire however is struggling to be fit for the Merseyside spectacular after a heavy fall at Catterick last month. A Grand National winning jockey Jason certainly deserved a bit of luck.
• The Foxhunters Chase at Aintree is the target for Big Fella Thanks, a horse who goes well round the track having finished a best placed 4th in the big race in 2010 in addition to numerous other good runs at the track.
• Carlingford Lough, joint top weight for the Grand National, will miss the race altogether despite running with credit in the Gold Cup on ground that was a touch too soft for his liking.
• One horse who is bang on track for the big one though is Saint Are who proved his aptitude for the fences with a 9th place finish in the race in 2013 and a 3rd in the Becher Chase in December. Tom George, his trainer, reports him absolutely spot on at the moment.

Has winning the 2014 Grand National left it's mark on Pineau Du Re?

• A trainer who recognises the need for serious improvement is the good Doctor Richard Newland. His charge, former winner Pineau De Re (2014), has run poorly on all of his starts this season and while reporting Pineau to be on track the Dr does realise he has to 'raise his game' come April if he is to retain his crown. 
• God's Own, who ran a blinder to finish 2nd to Un De Sceaux in the Arkle, could run at Aintree over 2 or 2.5 miles but that will be ground dependent as God's Own really needs good ground to be seen at his best. Otherwise he may head to Punchestown or Fairyhouse if the ground is more suitable there.
• Finally Ruby Walsh reports Vautour to be the most likely of Willie Mullin's Cheltenham stars to be Aintree bound as he needs a 2 1/2 mile race to be seen at his best. However the Melling Chase, a Grade 1 open to older horses, was all but ruled out as Vautour will be sticking to Novice company.

Punchestown and Fairyhouse

• Punchestown race course may be the lucky track that next gets to host the talented trio of Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Faugheen according to the man who will get to ride them, Ruby Walsh.

Will Faugheen be turning up at Punchestown?

• Fairyhouse on the other had must have been pleased to see Vautour and Don Poli in the entries for the Ryanair Gold Cup. 

Other News

A quick summary of the other headlines making our racing press this week.

• Glen's Melody, the brave winner (and possibly slightly fortunate) of the Mares hurdle at Cheltenham this year is to be retired; talk about going out on a high!
• Hurricane Fly may step up to 3 miles for the French Champion Hurdle after a highly creditable 3rd place in the Champion Hurdle this year. I for one would love to see this and hope Willie does go ahead with his plan.
•  Danny Cook, currently enjoying his most prolific season to date, will serve a 6 month ban after testing positive for Cocaine. Young Cook admits his 'catastrophic error of judgement' and has apologised profusely, taking his ban on the chin.

Danny Cook set for a spell on the sidelines

• Irish Grand National weights were released this week. Topped by Don Cossack, an unlucky 3rd at Cheltenham in the Ryanair, the market is headed by Grand Gesture and Gallant Oscar.If either of those two run well it would he a huge pointer to the chances of The Druids Nephew who beat them both easily at the Cheltenham Festival in the opening day 3 mile handicap chase.

Cheltenham 2015 - one to remember!

Only 360 days to go!

Another year and another Cheltenham festival over, but what an amazing feast of equine action we were treated too over for days in March. New champions crowned, trainers getting their maiden festival victories, Mullins domination and plenty of stories to come out of the racing. The weeks ahead will be full of festival review, horses for the notebook and future winners so I thought I'd do something a little different to remember Cheltenham 2015 with.

A good festival for

• Willie Mullins. Even allowing for the unexpected defeat of Annie Power the master of Irish racing still won all four grade 1 races on the first day on his way to surpassing Nicky Henderson's record of seven wins in one festival with eight of his own. In Don Poli, Vautour, Djakadam, Faugheen, Douvan and a Un De Sceaux he has the building of a formidable squad for next year already and quotes of him stopping all four championship races don't look that fanciful! And let's not forget Mullins saddled the 1-2-3 in the champion hurdle, a ridiculous achievement akin to the Dickinson first five in the Gold Cup. This was some week for Willie.

• The Bradstocks. Criticised in some parts for sending a novice for the Gold Cup the combination of Sara and Mark Bradstock were fully vindicated come 3:30 on Friday after Coneygree produced one of the most impressive displays ever seen by a novice round Prestbury Park on his way to winning the biggest race of them all; The Cheltenham Gold Cup. This is such a remarkable story, think back to when this horse was being withdrawn from a race at Plumpton at the start of the season on vet advice, the price paid for this horse who was seeing off Gigginstown Stud horses, Rich Ricci horses,the size of the Bradstock yard...Willie Mullins had more winners at Cheltenham than they have had all season, the prize money won in this race more than the Bradstock's had learnt in the preceding 5 seasons! It's what makes jump racing so good; the fact you can win big no matter who you are, a horse bred out of a £3,000 mare can best off the most expensively bred beasts out there.

• Warren Greatrex and Gavin Sheehan, the trainer jockey combination responsible for World Hurdle Winner Cole Harden. Gavin gave this a great ride from the front and thrust the pair into the Cheltenham spotlight, something I am sure we well become accustomed to in the future especially Sheehan who many top to be a jockey going places, even more so with the retirement of AP McCoy.this was a taste of the glory offered at Cheltenham and I'm sure the pair will now be working even harder so they can taste it again. The tears down Greatrex's face in the aftermath of this win Sun's up the emotion that the festival stirs in people who love the sport and this passion is marvellous to see.

Not so good for

• Bryan Cooper. OK so he did get on the score sheet with Don Poli but a host of his mounts where disappointing; the likes of Ourlander, Don Cossacks, . Young Bryan would have hoped to pick up a fair few more winners and to top it off he received whip band ruling him out if both English and Irish grand nationals. He has plenty of years ahead of him do I'm sure he will be able to put this behind him but it's fair to say Bryan and Gigginstown would have been hoping for a better festival.

• The old guard. The likes of Silviniaco Conti, Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, Zarkandar. All festival hopefuls who on previous form had great chances but who ultimately didn't perform and had to give way to younger rivals, New kids on the block. Where they go with Sprinter from here I do not know, to be honest retirement looks the only option as he seems a shadow of his old self.Conti surely had had his chance of winning a Gold Cup now, ditto Zarkander and the World Hurdle. It looks like we saw a real passing of the guard here and these old hero's well have to give best to fresh young horses from now on in. And I've not even mentioned Bob's Worth...

The New One. After last season's champion hurdle when he was supposedly unlucky not to have won after hampered by the sad and fatal fall of Our Conor The New One had no excuses this time. He was just not good enough and finished our of the placing, not the run Nigel and the team were hoping for or expecting. Arctic Fire and Faugheen both seen to well and truly have his measure and will do next season as well whereas Hurricane Fly at least may not be around to beat him again. Still they may have to look at stepping The New One up in distance, our maybe even look at fences, if he is to taste Grade 1 victory at Cheltenham again.

And one that will live long in the memory of...

AP McCoy. His last Cheltenham festival of a long and glittering career will be one McCoy will never forget. He had had more successful ones, more winning rides and more praise for tremendous rides but for sheer emotion, the adulation of the public and the love and appreciation shown to the champion this will be one he will never forget. By all accounts the cheer that greeted AP as he entered the winners enclosure on his sole winner of the week, Uxizandre appropriately in the JP McManus colours, was the loudest heard for many a year. And seeing the reception afforded to the man after his final ride, in the AP McCoy Grand Annual where he finished fourth, made me smile. As racing fans we are showing the man just how much we will miss his, how much we appreciate just what he has done for the sport. For sure Cheltenham 2016 will be missing something and I think we all know what, or rather who, that special something is.

Cheltenham Friday; Day 4 Selections

Friday Selections

Triumph Hurdle

 A race that could turn into a benefit night for owner Simon Munir as he owns Peace and Co (hot favourite), Top Notch and Baraka de Thaix; could he really have the first three home? Surely not but the one I like the most of his is Top Notch who I believe to be the most professional of the three and the one most likely to give his running in the lively atmosphere that will greet this field. After all this is the first race of the biggest day of the Festival, the crowd are likely to be fairly raucous! Top Notch is unbeaten in all 5 starts and hurdles beautifully, he is only proven up to class 2 level and hasn't beaten much but he has done all he has been asked too and looks full of potential. At 10/1 I cannot see him out the frame and is a much more attractive bet than Peace and Co at 5/2.

Simon Munir's colours will be very hard to keep out the frame

Karazak looks sure to give his running and will be in the first 5 I'd reckon, however isn't good enough on all known form and looks plenty exposed enough. The other I'm really excited to see here is Hargam, another from the Henderson yard. Now I wouldn't rule out a Henderson 1-2-3 here! This horse will love the good ground we look like getting, has Cheltenham form and was very impressive the last time up at Musselburgh, where he went in search of decent going. If the ground was riding really quick he would overtake Top Notch as my selection as he looks the more likely to produce a better run on those conditions, at 13/2 he is short enough now though and I prefer the 10/1 about Top Notch.

County Handicap Hurdle

I'm on Cheltenian here for the Philip Hobbs yard, a horse good enough to win the champion bumper in the past so brings some course experience to the table. He ran his best run for some time in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury last time out and the form of that run is working out well, with the 3rd horse running really well in the Coral Cup and Ebony Express (going really well when falling 2 out) won the ultra competitive Imperial Cup at Sandown last weekend. Chelteniam handles a variety of ground, so the forecast rain isn't an issue, and Richard Johnson has been talking this up as his ride of the week at preview nights. I'll take this former Champion Bumper horse to grab more festival glory, but at the price (14/1) an e/w investment is my approach.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

I'm going to go for the Father-Son combination of Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies here and back Blaklion who looks massively overpriced at 14/1. The horse acts well round Cheltenham, see his win over c&d in December 2014 and produces his best over this 3 mile trip rather than the shorter 20/21 furlong trips he has been seen over. Add to that we have a jockey upgrade as Sam TD takes the reigns from good claiming jockey Ryan Hatch for the first time since his debut over hurdles and we look to have all the makings of a knocking e/w bet especially at the price.

Maybe it is because he has come into this slightly under the radar, ok so he was beaten a head last time out by Caracci Apache from the Henderson yard but a head can be overturned by Blaklion's form at Cheltenham whereas C.A. is unproven over these undulations. Just look at the price of the likes of Black Hercules who is only proven up to Grade 3 over hurdles (the selection has Grade 1 form, and winning form in Grade 2 races). No More Heroes is a horse I have a lot of time for but I'm not sure why he is 7/1 when he is unproven over 3 miles as of yet, let alone a still 3 miles like Cheltenham presents. No I think Blaklion rates as a great bet at 14/1.

I fancy a father-son victory in the Albert Bartlett

The Gold Cup

One question that you have to ask yourself when assessing this race is can Silviniaco Conti, top rated, the only horse in the field rated 170+ currently and the horse with the best form this season, replicate his flat track form around Cheltenham? If you think so then this is an open shut case as he looks to be the best horse in the race on his preferred track. Arguably he does act round Cheltenham as you don't jump the final fence of a Gold Cup in the lead if you don't act at the track, however I haven't a clue what he was up to after the last and that has to be a concern. Add to that we should get good ground on Friday and Conti would prefer a bit of give and I think we can look for one at an e/w price to take him on with.

The 2014 renewal of the Gold Cup was an absolute thriller

If you fancy an e/w shout I think you can do a lot worse ON GOOD GROUND!!! than last year's winner Lord Windermere. This horse comes into his own at Cheltenham on good ground; whereas many of his rivals would prefer a bit of give in the ground LW definitely prefers decent going and will show his best on it. He has top class course form; RSA winner, Gold Cup winner, you don't get much better than that! He has been targeted at this race by his trainer since winning last year and everything he has done this season is purely warming up to the big one. He has improved for each run, which is encouraging, posting his best performance to day last time out. Davy Russell is plenty happy enough with his mount if you listen to the man at the preview nights he has been doing and I like Lord Windermere to get at least a place so is the e/w selection. I stress good ground, if the ground gets soft do not touch this horse and look instead to my alternative selection later on...

It is hard to pass Holywell over but I'm not sure Ritchie is the best jockey for a horse that is best ridden with a great deal of push from the saddle; Ritchie is a bit more softly softly and I'd be much more keen with the Champ on top. Road to Riches will love the ground but did the Lexus he won fall into his lap slightly? Sam Winner is definitely worth a quid e/w if the rain arrives and the ground turns soft as I could actually see him running on into a place with his endless stamina if they go quick up front, even more likely with Coneygree in the line up. He has run really well so far this season, stays longer than the mother in law, and will surely be ridden for a place here. While lacking the class to win a race like this I could easily see him plugging on late in the day and on soft ground he would be the e/w bet here.

Of the rest Bobs Worth hasn't shown his best for some time now, Djakadam could be a tad too inexperienced for a race of this nature although undoubtedly talented, Carlongford Lough will probably be overbet with the AP factor at play and would also not like any rain, Many Clouds would need softer ground and looks best at Newbury and The Giant Bolster surely isn't good enough?

The selections here Lord Windermere and Sam Winner, both e/w. We look like getting rain at some point on Friday; if this doesn't materialise or isn't excessive Lord Windermere would be a stronger selection, if the heavens do open then Sam Winner comes into play with his bottemless stamina reserves.

Foxhunter Chase

The profession jockeys take a breather here after the Gold Cup and the amature riders get their chance to shine. I must confess Irish P2P form is not my strong point so I'm not too sure where to start here; I'll reach for a few stats to kick me off. Look to horses younger than 11 as 22 of the last 24 winners were all under this age,also last time out winners do very well - responsible for 23 of the last 29 winners.Interestingly Paul Nicholls last 7 runners in this have been beaten, not great news for No Loose Change.  Top rated will be On The Fringe but he has been here before and doesn't quite stay the trip. As a token selection I'm drawn to Paint the Clouds for Warren Greatrex, the stable having enjoyed a World Hurdle victory on Thursday. Paint the Clouds comes here off the back of 4 wins on the trot, each rated higher than the last so looks to be on the up, beating smart horse Quinz last time out and has the services of top amature Sam Waley-Cohen who certainly knows how to win around here. In a race I know little about I'll take Paint the Clouds at 4/1.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

The boys race. Another race where the professional jockeys sit out and let the conditionals have their glory. One I really fancy here is a Grade 1 winner, a horse who has beaten Tell Us More who went on to run well in the Supreme on the opening day, who has won over the distance, can handle a variety of ground conditions and is somehow on a mark of 136 for this race. McKinley is the fancy here and he looks to have an absolutely cracking mark considering form in the book. Trained by the master Willie Mullins who is enjoying another great week I really want to be with McKinley here as I think for a Grade 1 winner he is thrown in. Perhaps that form has been underestimated because he was the outsider of his stable's runners? Still I won't complain and McKinley is the selection in the penultimate race of the 2015 festival.

AP McCoy Grand Annual

One thing is for sure here and that is that Ned Buntline, in the JP colours with AP McCoy on board, will go off a seriously short price! Apart from that I'll return to this race once entries are confirmed but you can back Ned Buntline now and lay off on the day for a free bet as I can see him going off around 3/1, especially if AP has a good week.

Will this man cap his final Cheltenham festival with a winner in the race named after him?

I fancy Next Sensation here for Michael Scudamore. You may member this horse as the one that went off at an absolutely suicidal pace in this race last year only to unsurprisingly not last home. He was beaten less than 2 lengths in the end, absolutely great effort considering his starting pace, and I marked this down as a great run and a winner in waiting ridden with more restraint next time out. Unfortunately Next Sensation hasn't managed to replicate that form since but the trainer has had this horses wind done since his last run (before Christmas) and laid him out for this race. With improvement hopefully to come after that wind op, and ridden a bit more sensibly, I think Next Sensation can give us something to cheer in this final race, the AP McCoy Grand Annual.

Cheltenham Thursday;Day 3 Selections

Thursday Selections

JLT Novices Chase 

I'm taking on Vautour here with Apache Stronghold from the Noel Meade yard. Paul Carberry has put this one up as his ride of the week and I agree that he has a smashing chance over this 2 mile 4 furlong trip. He was outstayed by Don Poli over 3 miles, no shame in that, in the Topaz Chase two runs ago and showed that his best form will come over this trip the last time when beating Valseur Lido and The Tullow Tank, both of whom could re-oppose on Thursday.

Apache Stronghold is the play in the opener

Vautour will go off favourite but the only time he hasn't been given an easy time up front he has made a horrid mistake at a fence. He definitely won't get an easy lead here and I think the question marks remain over his fencing ability under pressure. Ptit Zig comes here off the back of a fall, for all his form is top notch horses coming into the Fez off the back of a fall have a measly 3% strike rate so I have to leave him alone. Valseur Lido is held by my fancy on their latest run and Apache Stronghold at around 6/1 is the bet here.

Pertempts Network Final

 One stat I really like for this race is that in the last 17 years only Fingal Bay the last year has won one of the qualifiers for this race in the run up to actually winning the final at the Festival! Just look back at the replays of some of the qualifiers and you will see numerous examples of top class 'tender' rides!

One of the most tender of rides can be seen on Edeymi last time at Musselburgh, this is worth watching! The only think the jockey that day didn't do was stroke his horse as he was 'delivering' him with a challenge, and a riding enquiry ensued, but the horse was allowed to keep his 4th place and earn him a place in this lineup. Martin loves a good handicap smash up and this horse looks to have masses in hand of his mark of 135, it's just a question over whether there is something else in this field that has more in hand! However we know Edeymi has a huge amount in hand and that's good enough for me to put him up here.

Ryanair Chase

My selection months back was Don Cossack for this race but at the prices now I would not get involved again. This race looks a fairly competitive renewal and all the Don's for this season is going the other way round on soft ground, he fell the only time he has tried Cheltenham and those concerns are enough to swerve him at current prices for all he does look a totally reformed horse this season.
I'll put up a horse who certainly does have Cheltenham form, he won last years JLT, and that is Taquin Du Seuil for the Jonjo O'Neil team at a huge 16/1. Ignore his three runs this season, he doesn't stay 3 miles and the stable was in rank form. Look back at his form last season, top novice form with the beating of many top horses; the late Oscar Whiskey, Uxizandre, Wonderful Charm... Back down in trip but on the stiff Cheltenham track really suits this horse and he is a great e/w price.

Taquin Du Seuil on his way to winning the JLT in 2014

Interestingly Wonderful Charm has had a wind op since his last run and Paul Nicholls rates him as a great e/w bet; he has even had some of the 25/1 himself!

World Hurdle

Unfortunately we go into this race missing last year's 1-2 in More of That and Annie Power. However this does leave this race looking wide open as we look for a new champion. Unfortunately Rock on Ruby is also now confirmed missing as he was a horse who I like for this. 

Will Monksland finally fulfill his huge potential this year?

In his absence I'm putting up Monksland as a knocking e/w bet at 16/1. This horse will absolutely love the good ground we are likely to get at Cheltenham this year; a fragile horse who has been difficult to train it looks like Noel Meade may have managed to get him to the Festival this year and I think he will run really well. On his first run for a year he was only just beaten on the like by Dedigout last time on ground he would have hated, I definitely think on better ground he reverses that form. He had Zaidpour and Briar Hill in behind that day and look at some of his form from 2012, it is top class staying form. I think this is the year Monksland finally gets the chance to show what he has the potential to at Cheltenham and he looks a great e/w price.

Brown Advisory Plate

This is one race the Irish fare poorly in having never had a winner of it! I'm going with Un Ace here from the Kim bailey yard, AP booked and coming here off the back of the famous breathing operation. Kim was on the Sunday Forum recently and didn't rule out this horse finding as much as 5 lengths on his previous running after this tweak as McCoy has commented how it was stopping him breath at the business end of the race. Interestingly McCoy is back on board here, if he didn't think the wind op would bring about improvement I am sure he would have gone elsewhere for his ride!

Un Ace has the Cheltenham form that we so adore in a selection, running a good 2nd to Champagne West last time out on ground he wouldn't have loved and also with this wind issue. They think this horse good enough to warrant running him in the Supreme last year and back on good ground tomorrow, over a distance he has won at, with his breathing tweaked I think that we could see a much improved performance from Un Ace and he is the bet in a tricky handicap.

Kim Muir Handicap Chase

In a race limited to amateur riders I will add a selection here once riders have been finalised as so much depends on the jockey put up on each horse.
Now decs have come through I'm going for Just a Par for the Paul Nicholls team, the trainer booking top jockey in these events Will Biddick. Just a Par does nothing quickly but ran with credit in the RSA chase last year, jumping the Cheltenham fences and finishing a decent 7th. He was also back here in January running a very good 4th in the Betbright chase, only 4 lengths off the winner, so clearly goes well at the course.
It could be that the venture into a race with amature riders can spark some improvement, some horses really like these evens, and we know he can jump and run well round the course. It a race I wouldn't take too strong an opinion on due to the nature of it Just a Par is the e/w selection at 14/1.

Cheltenham Wednesday; Day 2 Selections

Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle

I like Windsor Park for this race, and definitely fancy him to turn around form with Nichols Canyon over this longer trip. I think NC should be going down the Supreme route as he will be best off going from the front over 2 miles; I think if they try and hold him up behind horses to get the trip here his jumping will come under too much pressure with horses around him. The selection has a good amount of flat speed, stays the 20f trip and will improve for the better ground. Dermot Weld is a dab hand at getting his horses right on the day and I fancy Windsor Park to take this opener. 

RSA Chase

This is an open and shut case for me; Don Poli wins.

Don Poli on his way to winning the Topaz

Basically I was hugely disappointed by Kings Palace last time out and don't think his jumping will stand up to the heat of an RSA having done his winning over fences in small field events. Coneygree could well go for the Gold Cup but if he comes here I fear he and Kings Palace could cut each other's throats up front. Also note Nico De Boinville will not be able to claim his 3lbs in this race, effectively leaving Coneygree 3lbs wrong before we start. 

I think The Young Master should go for the 4 miler which he would surely win but I'm not sure he will be quite good enough here. However he is hugely progressive and is hard to totally rule out; he has plenty of big field experience against hardened handicappers and looks a great bet to make the frame. But look at that form Don Poli has; he won arguably the best Novices Chase run so far this season last time out, seemingly all about stamina which will make him perfectly suited by this grueling test. Prior to that he won at Gowran over 20f, showing a nice turn of foot to go with his tenacity. Mullins has him down as a future Gold Cup horse and I am thrilled he is coming here rather than going for the 4 miler. Already rated good enough to have won the last two renewals of this race he is the best horse in this and wins

Coral Cup 

This race gives me another chance to follow Goodwood Mirage off a cliff! However I've been with him all season and he finally looks like getting the good ground I've been waiting for. Jonjo O'Neil has finally come into form having been in rank form earlier in the year which is encouraging as well. Goodwood Mirage definitely has the speed to take a race like this, the step up in trip is interesting and could eek out improvement as well given he is proven over longer trips on the flat. In a race where many have been laid out for we want a big price to go to war with and at 25/1 Goodwood Mirage is the each way fancy

Can the crafty Jonjo land another big handicap punt?

Queen Mother Champion Chase

This renewal is wide open, and who would have thought 2 years ago you could say that with Sprinter Sacre in the field. But he comes into the race with question marks after his well publicised issues with his heart, last years winner Sire De Grugy has had injury problems and also shoe issues according to Gary Moore. We have the hugely improved Dodging Bullets but he needs to prove he can be as good in March as his is in December (look back at previous form, he goes off the boil in Spring however Paul Nicholls is training him differently this year). Add the that the lovable rouge Mr Mole, Mullins sending Champagne Fever back over the minimum distance after not appearing to stay the King George trip at Christmas and Special Tiara, who will go tearing off in front and treating us to a display of bold jumping. A fascinating race for sure!

I'll put up Champagne Fever for this; he is at his best when allowed to go at his own pace, not being held up, and jump for fun, which he will be able to do here. He boasts really good Cheltenham form, 2nd in last year's Arkle (how he didn't win that I'll never know!), 1st in a Supreme and 1st in the Bumper they year before that; the horse loves this place! Ruby Walsh will ride and will get Champagne Fever in a good rhythm, we know his well being is assures and I'm sure he will give us a run for our money.

If back to his imperious best Sprinter Sacre will hose home, but that is a huge IF!

Cross Country Chase

Not my specialist race that's for sure! However, in a race that the big name jockeys usually avoid I think it could be significant that Sam Twiston-Davis takes the plunge in the race to ride Sire Collonges, who I've heard Sam put up as his ride of the meeting! He has form over the fences, his 3rd behind Balthazar King here in November is smart, and also proves he gets the trip. In a race I wouldn't be too keen on getting hugely involved with Sire Collonges is the selection

The Unique Cross Country Fences present a different test

Fred Winter

I fancy Zarib here to break the festival duct of young Dan Skelton, a trainer who definitely will be winning many more races at the Fez in seasons to come. This race is only ten runnings old but there are some stats to look at; 7 of the 10 winners had only run the minimum 3 times over hurdles so they can get a mark for this and all 10 winners had run from February onwards. Zarib fits both of those trends! He won last time out well, finished 3rd round Cheltenham to Peace and Co and Karazak in January and looks to be on a nice mark for this race. Zarib for me.


Champion Bumper

Oh dear oh dear. Another race where I usually would not get involved with! However I know previous winning form is key here with 20 of the last 22 winners having won last time out as well. This race is traditionally farmed by the Irish and I'll go for a rare Gigginstown runner in this race in the shape of General Principle. This horse has won on his sole start on these shores, a flat race at Punchestown at the start of Feb, and I think it interesting that the owners are pointing him towards this race considering they don't usually bother with it. Perhaps they think they have a proper chance of winning it this year and I'll take a chance on their General Principle.

Cheltenham Tuesday; Day 1 Selections

Tuesday Selections

What a day to start the Cheltenham festival. 4, yes 4, Grade 1 races coming at us from Prestbury park. We've been waiting for this day since March last year so without further ado lets get on with the horses!

Supreme Novices Hurdle 

There are numerous fantastic bookie offers on this race so why not back the favourite, the Willie Mullins trained Douvan, with William Hill (who give you money back as a free bet if your bet in this race is a loser!) and then look elsewhere for some value. The vibes coming out of the Mullins camp regarding this hotpot are very strong, his form may not be as good on paper as 2nd favourite Lami Serge however visually he has been very impressive, winning as he likes over in Ireland. He could be very special and it is worth covering this possibility.

Paddy Power are doing money back (as a free bet) on your stake if Douvan wins so lets use this to try and eek out some value in the race. The one I like here is Seedling, trained by Warren Greatrex. If this horse was trained by Nicholls, Henderson or Mullins he would be a deal shorter than the current 20/1 and Greatrex should not be underestimated as a trainer. This horse has bags of experience over hurdles so the hustle and bustle of this race, the Cheltenham excitement etc, should be handled by Seedling whereas others may crumble under it. This season Seedling has shown some really good form, especially last time out where he beat Some Plan, who went on to score impressively at Musselburgh later.That was at Cheltenham, so we know he handles the track as well, a key fact that will aid his cause. Don't worry that he has been off since December, the trainer took him to Newbury for a racecourse gallop recently and will have him ready for this. at 20/1 he rates a good e/w bet, especially if you get stakes back on losing parts of the bet if Douvan wins!

Monday Update

Alvisio Ville looks another e/w punt to me, forgive his last run and this horse was very highly thought of. He looks simply too big at current prices. He will be ridden differently to the disappointment last time out and at 14/1 or there thereabouts I would play him and Seedling e/w against the fav. 

Arkle Chase

Next up on Day 1 of Cheltenham we have the Arkle, and another hot favourite trained by Willie Mullins in Un De Sceaux, a really exciting horse who genuinely could be anything. He was the best of these over hurdles, the best over fences and is already rated just 1lb below the rating achieved by Sprinter Sacre when he won the Arkle a few years ago; he is good enough to win 19 out of the last 20 Arkles!! However at his current price I am leaving him alone and letting him run; he is after all a Novice Chaser, who has fallen once over fences already and is a notoriously buzzy horse who could get revved up by the Cheltenham atmosphere. By far and away the most likely winner but at 4/7 we can look for some value to follow him home.

Un De Sceaux really could be anything and is a hugely exciting favourite

Again you may as well back with Paddy Power here, who offer money back (as a free bet) on all stakes if Un De Sceaux wins. Therefore lets look for one who can reward us at an e/w price. Now with the forecast good ground this brings Court Minstrel right back into the picture for place money in my opinion. Impressive on his first 3 starts over fences, including winning Cheltenham form, he flopped on his final start when asked to run in the mud at Sandown. He just doesn't handle soft ground and I was quite surprised that his trainer Evan Willliams ran him to be honest. However he has been put away after that run waiting for decent ground, which he will get here. As I say his first 3 runs over fences were good, showing an aptitude for jumping and impressing many. He was also a very good horse over hurdles, always a positive for these novice chaser races as it's still form in the book! I think he has been slightly forgotten about after his Sandown run but at 33/1, for a horse who will be ridden purely to place, I think he rates a good e/w bet against a favoruite who could be very good indeed.

Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase

My line here is back the horse owned by the sponsors of the race; they will want to win the race in the first year they are sponsoring it after all! So Ned Stark is the selection here; he has some good form in the book including Grade 2 form and form over the Cheltenham fences, has won over the distance and on 11 stone has a cracking racing weight for this race. This race has been the target since his win at Wetherby at the start of February and he can go close at 10/1. Pendra, who has had his wind done since last run, rates the biggest danger for me in the famous JP colours.

Monday update

I'm not sure if I'm completely stupid but Indian Castle is catching my eye after the decorations today at a big price. He has Cheltenham form, winning form round here, and has switched stables from McCain to Ian Williams. His run the last day was the best he has run for over a year and it could be that Williams has found the key to this one. He is off a good mark if back to somewhere near his best and could reward a little e/w support at the price.

Champion Hurdle

Jezki on his way to winning the 2014 Champion Hurdle

Right. With the ground coming good I'm going to desert Hurricane Fly who I was planning on having an e/w bet on, however the good ground won't play to his strength and I'm going to desert him, for all I'd love him to win. I'm also leaving Jezki alone, I wonder if he is the same horse this season as he was last, leaving The New One who I think will get trapped for toe at a crucial stage of the race, leaving Faugheen because at even money he is too short for me now and backing Arctic Fire e/w at 16/1 with 3 places still going at the time of writing.

 Arctic Fire is still only 6 years old and has improved for each run so far this season. He has been beaten by the Fly twice already but that has been round the Fly's home course on soft ground. On better ground, at a track that may play more too his strengths (how on earth he didn't win the County Hurdle last year I do not know) I think he may be underestimated and I think he will improve again on Tuesday and get a place at a nice e/w price. The 'big guns' of this race may get into a bit of a cut throat battle coming into the home straight, as we say last year, and I reckon Arctic Fire can pick up the pieces and run past a few tired rivals in the last furlong.

OLBG Mares Hurdle

I'm again opposing the Willie Mullins favourite here in Annie Power who has not had the most ideal preparation for this race. Indeed if things had gone smoothly you fancy she would be off to the World Hurdle instead, but with setbacks and missed training she comes here for the easier of the two races. Mullins certainly knows what it takes to win this race after picking it up for the last 5 years with Quevega, the absolute wonder mare, but Annie isn't Quevega (yet anyway!) and at 4/6 she is plenty short enough for a horse we haven't seen all season.

I'm looking to one at a huge price here in The Govaness for Fergal O'Brien. She is absolutely loved by her trainer who has always thought of her as a very good mare and she rewarded his faith over the flat when winning a Cheltenham bumper in 2013. Since then she has gone over hurdles with mixed success but her performance last time out, an eased down winner, was by far her best run over obstacles and that was over a distance just 1/2 a furlong shorter than this trip. She has bags to find on the ratings but this race looks ripe for a few big prices to fill the frame and at 66/1 for an improving mare she is worth an e/w punt for me. 

Polly Peachum, the Henderson mare, could give Annie Power the most to think about for win purposes I think. Forgive her run last time out and she has very good form, will love the better ground here and is apparently going very well at home.

Monday Update

After declarations today the govaness no longer goes for the race so robbed of my big each way fancy I'll put my eggs in the Polly Peachum basket. I'm annoyed Bitofapuzzle comes here as the ground won't be too her liking an the trip too short, that mare needs 3 miles. Same applies to Caroles Spirit while Glen's melody isn't for me as I wonder how aggressively she will be ridden with Mullins surely not wanting to get Annie Power beat here.

Toby Balding National Hunt Chase

The late Toby Balding will be remembered at this year's festival with the National Hunt Chase renamed in his memory

This race has cut up a bit with Don Poli, Very Wood and The Young Master, all of whom would be highly fancied here, going for the RSA Chase and that leaves for me Wounded Warrior to take the win. Surely Gigginstown, who own Don Poli and Very Wood, would think Wounded Warrior is good enough to take this race otherwise they would have left one of those two in the race to get the win. WW has beat some good horses this season in Rule the World and Blood Cotil, and was only narrowly beat by Don Poli. He looks a very likely winner at 5/1.

Monday Update

After being rules out of this race earlier in the build up Very Wood will now be lining up for this 4mile race instead of the RSA; one of the perils of betting ante post! Wounded Warrior hours for the RSA in a little Gigginstown switch so we need to look again for our bet. I'll go for Cogry from the Nigel Twiston-Davies team with top jockey Mr Clements booked, a statement of intent from the team. He comes here off the back of 2 wins in his last 3 races,a lovely progressive profile. He is a nice jumped which will give him every chance of staying this extreme trip, not wasting energy at his fences, and will be given every chance from the saddle, vitally important in these kind of races. Proven over 26f on soft ground I'm sure Cogry is worth an ew bet at around 12/1.

Chaps Novices Handicap

The lucky last on day 1 and the one I'll put up here at a nice 20/1 is Knock House for Mick Channon. I love how Mick's horses are jumping under the tutelage of Henrietta Knight who gets involved in training the horses in the Channon yard; it looks a great partnership to me and has seen the likes of Sgt. Reckless and Knock House posting some very impressive fencing performances this year.

Knock House comes here off the back of a 1.5L defeat to Stellar Notion last time out, however that was giving that opponent 4 lbs, they race off levels here and Knock House can reverse that form, especially on better ground. He has jumped round Cheltenham before, and got round safely (he stood no chance winning trying to give 5lbs to Kings Palace!) which is encouraging. Over hurdles he managed to beat a few of these opponents giving weight to them in an Ascot handicap and he literally could not have been more impressive on chasing debut. Put away since his Kempton run having had 3 runs over fences Knock House can reward the stable's patience and take victory in this closing race.

Cheltenham Chat - 8 days to Go

8 Days to go!

4 legendary horses survey the scene from Cleve Hill (Photo from Channel 4)

Its getting seriously close now to the Cheltenham Festival...almost 1 week to go till arguably the single greatest day in jumps racing with 4 Grade 1 races on the opening day of the Festival and plenty more to come throughout the week. In this blog I'll round up some of the action and chat from this week, some good gossip and some of the best bookie offers for us punters to lap up!

Preview Night Gossip

Always take information you hear at these preview nights with a pinch of salt; they are great fun and you hear all sorts of chat but a lot of the time the pundits do play to the audience! Still here are a few lines I've heard from the last few days:

• Apache Stronghold is Paul Carberry's best ride of the festival in the JLT Novices
• Harry Skelton reckons Value at risk has a massive chance in the Albert Bartlett, going on to say he worked very well this morning (26th Feb).
• One man who wants to oppose Faugheen is Dougie Costello, who says 'I don't think Faugheen is champion hurdle class. His jumping isn't good enough over 2m'
• Philip Hobbs rates his bumper horse Wait for Me very highly. He nominates Big Easy (in the Pertempts Network Final) and Duke of Lucca (Cross country) as his two best chances though in an interview with the Times.
• Warren Greatrex says that Paint the Coulds, current favourite for the Foxhunters, could be better than a hunter chaser and is in superb form ahead of the race. He also reckons Cole Harden is a rock solid e/w proposition for the World Hurdle after a wind operation
• Not sure how much we should believe this but JP McManus, when interviewed by Nick Luck at a preview night in Dunraven, says of Mr Mole "He may carry your money but he won't carry mine!"
• Talking of reputation Jonjo O'Neil thinks that Goodwood Mirage (in the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle), so often put up in this blog for handicaps this season, has a live chance at Prestbury Park in a handicap if the ground comes up good. Jonjo reckons he is on a winnable mark granted his prefered ground and will go to Cheltenham with a live chance.
• Nick Scholfield rates Aue Ptits Sen as his best bet of the festival; this one goes in the Coral Cup. He was entered in at Fontwell in the Game Spirit but wasn't favoured by the weights so was withdrawn and comes straight here.
• Simon Claisse says the ground is predominantly good-soft (what a surprise!), bits of soft on Old Course and cross country course though. Forecast for wintery showers this week but dry at end of it, a decision on watering will be taken mid week.
• One final shout out for the London Racing Club preview night on Tuesday the 3rd March. 3 hours of Cheltenham chat, a 50 quid matched bet, a 57 page betting guide and a bloody raffle! Incredible! I'll see you there if you decide to go!

General Cheltenham News

Now some general info and chat about horses, riders and races at the festival

• Vautour, Djakadam and Un De Sceaux worked after racing on Saturday at Leopardstown, with the former 2 apparently working very well and Mullins expressed his delight with all three, but especially Vautour.Gordon Elliott also ran his entire Cheltenham string and said he was happy with them all, especially Don Cossack who looked 'a million dollars'. 
• Shocking news as Danny Cook, the jockey, tests positive for cocaine and will miss Cheltenham after accepting an interim suspension pending a full inquiry into the test. Young Cook will now miss a few rides for Brian Ellison at the Festival.
• Paul Nolan is keeping his fingers crossed Festival winner Noble Prince makes the cut for the St James's Place Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham. Noble Prince has some great form at the course, he's a previous winner of the JLT after all, and his class could shine through if he gets into the Foxhunters.
• With only 1 run over fences Sgt Reckless certainly lacks a bit of experience over the larger obstacles and connections are wondering whether to allow him to run in the Arkle or send him over hurdles at the Festival. Sgt Reckless needs good ground, which has seen him miss a few runs this season, so will only run at all if the going is good.
• Noel Meade, who posted his best January/February strike rate in the last 5 years (21%) in 2015 sends six or seven horses across the Irish Sea: Road To Riches, Apache Stronghold, Very Wood, Wounded Warrior, Ned Buntline, Snow Falcon and Ipsos Du Berlais (for the cross country) are all confirmed. Waxies Dargle and Couleur France could also go.
• Bryan Cooper rates Don Cossack, Road To Riches and No More Heroes as the rides he is most looking forward too at Cheltenham. He also reckons Outlander will go down the Neptune route.

Remember back in 2013 when Bryan Cooper burst onto the Cheltenham scene with a treble?

• Top Irish amatur jockey Jamie Codd has been booked for Cause of Clauses in the National Hunt Chase, as well as Vital Plot in the Foxhunters. Vital Plot has undergone a wind operation since last being seen and Codd will be hoping he can add to his 2 festival wins so far.
• Boylesports have reported 'substantial support' for Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, a race which his trainer,Nicky Henderson, thinks he has an 'oustandingly good chance' of winning. Sprinter is Boyle's biggest loser in their book by some distance and the firm have cut him into 11/4 from 3/1 today.

Bookie Offers

• Keep an eye out on the Paddy Power horse racing guys on Twitter; they are tweeting some great offers at the moment and nice enhanced prices using the hashtag #Cheltmental. Have a little look now and again this week to see if Paddy can tempt you in with anything! Sunday say Faugheen and Sprinter Sacre both to win (NRNB) at 9/1 so if that attracts you be sure to check out the Paddy Power site.
• Boylesports are doing an incredible money back offer' money back on Un De Sceaux if he fails to win the Arkle Chase on the opening day of the festival! The same firm are also offering money back if your horse finishes 2nd to the SP favourite on all RTE and Channel 4 races, another great offer.

That'll do for now. I'm sure I've missed plenty but there is just so much news coming think and fast that I've tried to pick out a few bits that sound interesting, hopefully you can use these to your advantage!

Cheers for reading

Alex