This weekend (hopefully) sees a few decent horses out at Newbury and Warwick and it's the Newbury venue that I'm looking forward too the most. The Denman chase, a 3 mile Grade 2 race, will be a stamina sapping clash for the horses that go to post with the going at Newbury heavy as I type and only likly to get even heavier with the weather forecast. Paul Nicholls Gold Cup hopeful Al Ferof potentially lines up here, although Nicholls has expressed doubts over the ground and he may not run if it gets totally bottomless. As an ante-post fancy this immediately casts doubts over the validity of a punt on Al Ferof, and with Tidal Bay definitely off to Leopardstown on Sunday instead of here that takes us down to 8 runners. Therefore if you have an e/w fancy it makes sense to get stuck in now rather than wait till the day when the reduced runners will lead to worse e/w terms if we get any more withdrawals.
Highland Lodge is a likely pace angle in this race and should ensure they go at a decent clip. Emma Lavelle's horse usually goes from the front and likes it round here, his 4th place in the Hennessy proving that, and although I fancy he will find a few too good here at least they won't be walking round for the first 2 miles. Triolo D'Alene, the winner of that Hennessy, lines up again here. However his three recent wins have been on good or good to soft ground so there have to be doubts over his ability to act on this very testing surface.
Katenko represents the red-hot stable of Venetia Williams and has some excellent form from last season. However he has had a bout of colic and hasn't been able to reproduce that same form since. A faller back here in November he is too short at 4/1 in the market to justify a punt considering his form since his colic. However if he is to bounce back this ground won't be a problem and as I say the stable could barely be in better form, just at the price I feel I can justify avoiding him.
One horse that definitely has the class to win this race is Menorah for Philip Hobbs. Often a feature in hot grade 1 races under regular pilot Richard Johnson Menorah comes here on the back of a pulled up effort in the King George on Boxing day. He has to overcome that bad run but heavy ground isn't a problem and 10/1 is currently a very nice price. In last year's renewal of this race he finished third behind Silviniaco Conti and The Giant Bolster, not bad form at all and acts round the track. However he is also likely to clout one or two on the way round but at 10/1 he definitely represents some e/w value.
Another horse likely to clout one or two is a favourite horse of mine, and one I will nominate to take this race this weekend - Harry Topper. I put Kim Bailey's charge up as my fancy for the Argento Chase at Cheltenham a few weeks back and he jumped poorly there but absolutely flew home after the last to claim third place behind the winner The Giant Bolster. However I think this race will suit him even more. As mentioned earlier I think we will get a decent pace set by Highland Lodge and the heavy ground will ensure stamina is at a premium, absolutely ideal for Harry Topper. He was giving 10 lbs to The Giant Bolster and 5 lbs to Rocky Creek, the two who beat him at Cheltenham in January, making his performance all the more impressive. I think the heavy ground may also give Harry Topper a bit more time at his fences and there will be plenty who struggle to jump out of it, however Harry will not be one of those. He is in danger of becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me but at 4/1 he is my ante-post selection for the Denman Chase.
I'll very briefly touch on the Betfair Hurdle, an absolute minefield of a race and one where you could make a case for plenty. Instead of going through the field and nominating a few I'll just put two up here and highlight why I think they look decent to me. First up is the Paul Nicholl's trained Far West. Only beaten by the hugely impressive Our Conor in the Triumph hurdle last year at the festival Far West is a horse proven on testing ground and in big fields and big occasions. He has a big weight but Harry Derham takes a very useful 5lbs off taking him into the middle of the weights, and on this ground every pound will count. 12/1 looks a fair price.
The 2nd selection at a big price is Recession Proof, a former winner of the race. John Quinn's horse is now back on the same mark that he won this race off 3 years ago now and was running what looked a potentially big race last time out in the Ascot hurdle before falling. jockey that day, Brendan Powell, has come out and said he thought Recession Proof was going well that day and could maybe have taken a hand at the finish but it wasn't to be. Now Jake Greenall takes the mount and has the added benefit of a 3lbs claim, and as I've said this is definitely a race where every pound can count. Recession Proof won't mind the ground, likes it round here and has showed signs of coming back to the form that could see him in with a shout here. At 25/1, and some bookies paying 5 places, I think you could forgive a few pounds on Recession Proof as well.
That's all for this preview of the two big races at Newbury this weekend. Thanks for reading and I'd love to hear your thoughts on my selections!
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