Irish Champion Hurdle

4 runners go head to head at Leopardstown on Sunday with the Irish Champion Hurdle the prize, although most people watching this race will actually have more than half a mind on the English equivalent at Cheltenham in just over 6 weeks time. While Captain Cee Bee won't be being prepared with such lofty targets in mind the other three contenders tomorrow all have realistic chances of landing the Championship race of the Tuesday at the festival.
Hurricane Fly leads the way as favourite for both tomorrow and the March race in mind. He is the reigning champion, world record holder for number of grade 1 wins and apple of Ruby Walsh's eye. The sharp track of Leopardstown will suit the Fly down to a tee, he has speed none of the rest of this field have being an ex-Flat horse rated in the 90's. Compare this to Jezki, who was a bumper horse and Our Conor, rated 60-70 on the flat, and you can see why this course should play into Hurricane Fly's hands. He had the beating of this field over this Course and Distance over the Christmas period and his trainer, the Irish Champion trainer Willie Mullins, expects the Fly to actually come on for that run. Bearing all this in mind the Fly should hose up no?
Well the bookies have him priced up at 4/7 for tomorrow and I wouldn't really want to lay the Fly even at that price. They race tomorrow over the inner-most track, it will be the sharpest, speediest course possible and with no guaranteed pace in the race (even though Captain Cee Bee went out in front at Christmas the rest of the field were hardly hot on his tail, taking there time to come past him and blasting him away when they eventually did.) this could develop into a sprint, which would suit the Fly as well. There are arguments saying Jezki and Our Conor will come on for their Christmas exertions as well. Jezki didn't get the clearest of runs, McCoy got pegged in by Our Conor and had to check Jezki in his run, while Our Conor was effectively having his first outing of the season having been laid low by injury after his pipe-opener on the flat. However I think the track and pace in the race will not put enough emphasis on stamina for either of these horses tomorrow and the Fly looks by far the most likely winner of the Irish Champion Hurdle.

However I'm not quite finished there. Whilst I expect the Fly to win tomorrow I don't actually expect him to win the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle. He has never run to his peak over this side of the Irish sea, which seems strange when he has won the race twice. I don't know what it is, the track may not suit him as much, he may not enjoy the travelling, perhaps he prefers the refreshments available in Ireland. In previous years this has not always mattered and Hurricane Fly has been able to win regardless. Mind you this years renewal of the race looks the strongest for many a year with My Tent or Yours and the New One expected to really put it down to the reigning champ in addition to the rivals he will race tomorrow. With Cheltenham in mind I am hoping for another encouraging run from Our Conor tomorrow before he comes over the Irish Sea on March. This horse's victory in last years Triumph Hurdle is unforgettable, the way he routed that field by 14 odd lengths was incredible and he clearly is a horse who loves the galloping undulations of Cheltenham. This horse wants the emphasis on stamina more than speed and he should get that at Cheltenham especially if perennial front runner Un De Sceaux lines up. With this in mind, and his early season setback which may mean he may still slightly need tomorrows run, I expect Our Conor to lose to the Fly tomorrow but as long as he doesn't bomb out completely I'll hopefully be getting a slightly bigger price tomorrow evening for Dessie Hughes' charge to reverse the form with Hurricane Fly in March and will be taking that with glee!