Over the weekend we saw a few horses with Cheltenham hopes running on ground which will probably (hopefully) bear no resemblance to that which horses will gallop over in 7 weeks time. The constant rain around is making heavy going commonplace across most of the tracks we're racing at, with the exception of the all-weather. However even the likes of Lingfield are not getting away from the impact of the falling water with huge flooding around the area. I got first hand experience of said flooding when out on my bike ride this Saturday, a great deal of ad-hoc route planning had to be done to avoid the numerous road closures.
However one horse that will most certainly have cemented his place in punter's Cheltenham thoughts was Sire De Grugy. Although I fancied Somersby for the race that horse unshipped Elsworth before the race really developed, leaving Gary Moore's charge to romp home. The performance was visually very impressive and if Sprinter Sacre doesn't line up in the Queen Mother he looks like being a hot favourite. However I've got the niggling doubt in the back of my mind around his ability to act to his best at Cheltenham and the one I've got in my mind for that race at a big price is Special Tiara. At 40/1 you can afford to take a punt and this horse will love a return to good ground which I hope we will see come March. He's not been seen to his best so far this season but I'm pleased to see his trainer stop slogging him on a testing surface. His win at Aintree at the end of last season was very impressive, indeed he beat Sire De Grugy as well as Overturn, which shows the talent he has granted 2 miles on good ground. I think the intention is to give Special Tiara one more run in Ireland before the festival and I'll certainly be watching that with interest bearing March in mind.
The Mares' Hurdle earlier on at Ascot was a great race to watch with a thrilling finish involving some very game mares. The favourite Mickie looked to be beat 3 out but kept on fighting in a very admirable winner. However there was no faulting the so so game Highland Retreat. Harry Fry can be very proud of his horse as she really did put it all in to take the win here and quotes of 20/1 for the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, also known as 'the race Quevega always wins' were floated around after the race. If Willie's wonder-mare turns up to the festival as she has in previous years then she will obviously be a very tough nut to crack and it's not usually a race I like to get involved in. However, branching off slightly, if Annie Power turned up in this race I'd be much more interested. I can't see that happening though especially given quotes from AP's owner suggesting the Champion Hurdle is the race he wants to win (Please send her there Willie!)
This really is a fascinating subject and one I have to touch upon. Given the talent in the Mullins yard, with Hurricane Fly and dark-horse Un Des Sceaux ready for the Champion Hurdle, Quevega mopping up the mares race and perhaps slight doubts over the necessity of a 3 mile trip, it will be intriguing to see where Annie Power lines up. I would really love her to go for the 2 mile race but can you really see Mullins putting her in there, especially considering Walsh's attachment to Hurricane Fly? At the same time I can't see her being put in against Quevega, what is the point especially when Quevega is on track to break the record for consecutive race wins at the festival. If Big Bucks bombs out in the Cleeve hurdle this coming weekend I could see the attraction of the 3 mile Championship race, however as Oscar Whiskey has proved there is a huge difference in looking strong after 2 miles 4 furlongs and properly getting the 3 mile trip. But then we could say what if the Fly gets beat in the upcoming Irish Champion hurdle? It looks like we won't know Annie Power's target till much closer to festival time but I hope that Rich Ricci gets on at Willie to put her in the Champion hurdle as that really would make the 2 mile event the undoubted race of the festival.
Anyway back to the weekend's action we saw Irish Saint win very impressively in the Grade 2 handicap hurdle, setting himself up nicely for a tilt at the Betfair hurdle in February. Nicholls has said today that that race is the target given the ground is suitable and it will be interesting to see how much the handicapper hits the horse with after this in regards to future handicaps. However I believe that Irish Saint will only have to carry a 5lbs penalty in the Betfair and it certainly looked like he could have carried a few extra pounds on Saturday as he really did win with bags in hand. Up at Haydock another hurdler hit the headlines when Melodic Rendevous bounced back to form after a poor run behind My Tent or Yours up at Newcastle previously. Trainer Jeremy Scott believes the horse pulled a muscle on that run though, explaining the horses poor performance, and he will have been delighted with Melodic Rendevous on Saturday. Pre-race Scott had said that his hurdler was still a bit short on fitness, making this win even more impressive, and I can see why some will fancy him as an e/w shout for the Champion hurdle at odds as big as 33/1. However he is another horse who I think prefers the current going conditions to the ones he will likely encounter at Cheltenham and I'm not tempted even at that price. He also appears quite a fragile horse, missing last year's festival with a physical problem as well as the previously mentioned muscle strain at Newcastle, and that makes him less appealing as an ante-post selection.
Taquin De Seuil is a horse I love and it was great to see him hose up in the Novices Chase at Haydock. However the absence of Gevrey Chambertin effectively made this race a penalty kick for Jonjo's charge and he still made the odd mistake at his fences. I wonder if connections would consider the RSA Chase on the Wednesday at Cheltenham for him as I think going a slightly slower pace would help his jumpin. After all, when he went over 2 miles earlier in the season at Sandown they were definitely going a shade to quick for him which caused his jumping to go to pot. He is prominent in the betting for the JLT and the RSA Chase and is another horse (notice the theme here) who certainly would not be inconvinienced by soft ground. If it does come up as good ground in March I think Taquin would have his best chance in the RSA because this might make even the 2 mile 4 furlong trip of the JLT a touch too pacey.
We saw a bubble burst as David Pipe's expensive recruit to hurdling Un Temps Pour Tout get beat in the Supreme Novices Hurdle trial by Venetia William's Zamdy Man. Venetia's horses really are flying at the moment, they absolutely love the heavy going, but I couldn't have Zamdy Man as a potential winner of the festival opener. However I haven't got anything useful to say about that race as it looks a tremendously open heat at the time of writing with odds of 10/1 or greater available for every contender. We're still waiting for something to come out and shout "Back Me" with a great performance and have seen a couple come out of the Mullins yard and win without exactly thrilling. Its certainly not a market I'd be scrambling to have a bet in that's for sure.
A final note of congratulations from the weekend must go to Paddy Brennan who took one ride at Ascot and one in the final race on the card at Haydock, winning on them both. I'm sure there must have been a few eagle eyed punters who had spotted this travelling schedule and backed Brennan's mounts accordingly. Sadly I wasn't one of them!
Looking ahead now and we've got a nice card over in Ireland on Thursday including the feature race the Thyestes chase. Then we're on to the weekend which lets us welcome back the great Big Bucks to competitive action after a year off with injury. It will be fabulous to see the wonderful hurdler back in action and I'm sure a lot of attention will be on the man riding him as well as the horse himself! Sam Twiston-Davies has landed a great ride on board this champ and fully deserves it as far as I am concerned. He has been riding very well this year and it will be fantastic for racing as a whole if he can guide Big Bucks to victory on his return. The rest of the Cheltenham card will surely be very entertaining and we also have some good fare on offer at Doncaster, including the competitive Skybet Handicap Chase, so I'll be back later in the week to provide some musings over the weekend cards as well as a few selections for you to consider (and then avoid!)
Thanks for reading!
Alex
The Mares' Hurdle earlier on at Ascot was a great race to watch with a thrilling finish involving some very game mares. The favourite Mickie looked to be beat 3 out but kept on fighting in a very admirable winner. However there was no faulting the so so game Highland Retreat. Harry Fry can be very proud of his horse as she really did put it all in to take the win here and quotes of 20/1 for the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, also known as 'the race Quevega always wins' were floated around after the race. If Willie's wonder-mare turns up to the festival as she has in previous years then she will obviously be a very tough nut to crack and it's not usually a race I like to get involved in. However, branching off slightly, if Annie Power turned up in this race I'd be much more interested. I can't see that happening though especially given quotes from AP's owner suggesting the Champion Hurdle is the race he wants to win (Please send her there Willie!)
This really is a fascinating subject and one I have to touch upon. Given the talent in the Mullins yard, with Hurricane Fly and dark-horse Un Des Sceaux ready for the Champion Hurdle, Quevega mopping up the mares race and perhaps slight doubts over the necessity of a 3 mile trip, it will be intriguing to see where Annie Power lines up. I would really love her to go for the 2 mile race but can you really see Mullins putting her in there, especially considering Walsh's attachment to Hurricane Fly? At the same time I can't see her being put in against Quevega, what is the point especially when Quevega is on track to break the record for consecutive race wins at the festival. If Big Bucks bombs out in the Cleeve hurdle this coming weekend I could see the attraction of the 3 mile Championship race, however as Oscar Whiskey has proved there is a huge difference in looking strong after 2 miles 4 furlongs and properly getting the 3 mile trip. But then we could say what if the Fly gets beat in the upcoming Irish Champion hurdle? It looks like we won't know Annie Power's target till much closer to festival time but I hope that Rich Ricci gets on at Willie to put her in the Champion hurdle as that really would make the 2 mile event the undoubted race of the festival.
Anyway back to the weekend's action we saw Irish Saint win very impressively in the Grade 2 handicap hurdle, setting himself up nicely for a tilt at the Betfair hurdle in February. Nicholls has said today that that race is the target given the ground is suitable and it will be interesting to see how much the handicapper hits the horse with after this in regards to future handicaps. However I believe that Irish Saint will only have to carry a 5lbs penalty in the Betfair and it certainly looked like he could have carried a few extra pounds on Saturday as he really did win with bags in hand. Up at Haydock another hurdler hit the headlines when Melodic Rendevous bounced back to form after a poor run behind My Tent or Yours up at Newcastle previously. Trainer Jeremy Scott believes the horse pulled a muscle on that run though, explaining the horses poor performance, and he will have been delighted with Melodic Rendevous on Saturday. Pre-race Scott had said that his hurdler was still a bit short on fitness, making this win even more impressive, and I can see why some will fancy him as an e/w shout for the Champion hurdle at odds as big as 33/1. However he is another horse who I think prefers the current going conditions to the ones he will likely encounter at Cheltenham and I'm not tempted even at that price. He also appears quite a fragile horse, missing last year's festival with a physical problem as well as the previously mentioned muscle strain at Newcastle, and that makes him less appealing as an ante-post selection.
Taquin De Seuil is a horse I love and it was great to see him hose up in the Novices Chase at Haydock. However the absence of Gevrey Chambertin effectively made this race a penalty kick for Jonjo's charge and he still made the odd mistake at his fences. I wonder if connections would consider the RSA Chase on the Wednesday at Cheltenham for him as I think going a slightly slower pace would help his jumpin. After all, when he went over 2 miles earlier in the season at Sandown they were definitely going a shade to quick for him which caused his jumping to go to pot. He is prominent in the betting for the JLT and the RSA Chase and is another horse (notice the theme here) who certainly would not be inconvinienced by soft ground. If it does come up as good ground in March I think Taquin would have his best chance in the RSA because this might make even the 2 mile 4 furlong trip of the JLT a touch too pacey.
We saw a bubble burst as David Pipe's expensive recruit to hurdling Un Temps Pour Tout get beat in the Supreme Novices Hurdle trial by Venetia William's Zamdy Man. Venetia's horses really are flying at the moment, they absolutely love the heavy going, but I couldn't have Zamdy Man as a potential winner of the festival opener. However I haven't got anything useful to say about that race as it looks a tremendously open heat at the time of writing with odds of 10/1 or greater available for every contender. We're still waiting for something to come out and shout "Back Me" with a great performance and have seen a couple come out of the Mullins yard and win without exactly thrilling. Its certainly not a market I'd be scrambling to have a bet in that's for sure.
A final note of congratulations from the weekend must go to Paddy Brennan who took one ride at Ascot and one in the final race on the card at Haydock, winning on them both. I'm sure there must have been a few eagle eyed punters who had spotted this travelling schedule and backed Brennan's mounts accordingly. Sadly I wasn't one of them!
Looking ahead now and we've got a nice card over in Ireland on Thursday including the feature race the Thyestes chase. Then we're on to the weekend which lets us welcome back the great Big Bucks to competitive action after a year off with injury. It will be fabulous to see the wonderful hurdler back in action and I'm sure a lot of attention will be on the man riding him as well as the horse himself! Sam Twiston-Davies has landed a great ride on board this champ and fully deserves it as far as I am concerned. He has been riding very well this year and it will be fantastic for racing as a whole if he can guide Big Bucks to victory on his return. The rest of the Cheltenham card will surely be very entertaining and we also have some good fare on offer at Doncaster, including the competitive Skybet Handicap Chase, so I'll be back later in the week to provide some musings over the weekend cards as well as a few selections for you to consider (and then avoid!)
Thanks for reading!
Alex
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