Entries came out for some of the big races this weekend and I thought I'd just touch on the Argento Chase to look for a bit of early value. We see Hennessy winner Triolo D'Alene feature amongst 12 horses lining up over the 3m 1 furlong trip at HQ. One very interesting horse is the Colin Tizzard horse Theatre Guide, there were rumours that Tizzard thinks he may have a Gold Cup horse here which would allow Cue Card to go down the Ryanair trip. Theatre Guide was just touched off here over the trip by Monberg Dude in December but that was only a couple of weeks after a gallant run to finish third in the Hennessy and he may benefit from a longer break between races here. What isn't up for debate is that Theatre Guide will stay the trip, he definitely will. Weather he is good enough however is another matter altogether as he was receiving weight from both Rocky Creek and Triolo D'Alene at Newbury and was beaten fair and square by them both that day. With the other 2 better off at the weights on Saturday there is no obvious reason why he should turn around the form with that pair but at 8/1 with 12 runners in the race he could well be staying on while others have cried enough and get a place at the end of this gruelling trip.
A few other horses can be ruled out quite quickly.
Walkon from the Alan King stable will be one of King's first runners since his yard took a break with a bug going round the horses and you would want to see some of his runners go well before getting involved really. Judging on the way Champion Court travelled in last year's King George before cutting out at the start of the home straight you would have to say on a more testing track he just won't get this trip.
I don't think the Giant Bolster is good enough for all that he loves it round Cheltenham; he's run well in recent Gold Cups but he didn't run well enough over hurdles on new Years Day to convince me that he isn't on the decline now.
At his best Time for Rupert would give this lot a serious amount to think about, however we've only seen him once since November 2012 and he weakened dramatically that day. It would be that he will come on a bundle for that re-appearance, some 50 lengths behind Reve De Sivola at Ascot, however if he does I certainly won't be winning on the race.
Pigeon Island - just no and Restless Harry won't jump well enough.
Back to a few horses I do like now. Houblon Des Obeaux is an admirable horse and the stable are going very well at the moment with the mud flying. He comes here off the back over a win at Ascot over 3 miles and on soft going so you would think the trip and going will be fine on Saturday. However he was well beaten in the Hennessy by three of Saturday's re-opposing rivals and it would be hard to see him turning round form with all three of them.
Rocky Creek has an obvious favourites chance. Although beaten by Triolo D'Alene in the Hennessy he is more favoured by the weights here and has a leading chance with the trip and ground looking fine. However go back six races in his for and you will see a 2nd place, beaten by a certain Harry Topper over three miles. This is where I feel the value may lie on Saturday...with Kim Bailey's charge.
I feel you can forgive his Sandown run last time out, the famous railway fences will have put his jumping under tremendous pressure and with the obstacles a bit more spaced out at Cheltenham I hope this will see a better performance in that respect at the weekend. Harry Topper has the beating of many of Saturday's rivals in his previous form and is available at 12/1 - generous! This means you can get involved each-way and get 3/1 about a place for a horse that will stay the trip, like the ground and has the form to win the contest. Remember this is a horse that has already beaten Unioniste and last years JLT winner Benifficient so far this season on re-appearance, has the beating of Rocky Creek and Houblon Des Obeaux earlier in his career and is not even in the top 7 in the market. At 12/1 Kim Bailey's charge looks to early value call.
No comments:
Post a Comment