A look at Royal Ascot - 2 horses on the opening 2 days

With Royal Ascot just over the horizon (we've got to get through Sunday evening first) and the ground now almost certainly set to be on the soft side of good with the recent rain I thought I'd just write a little about two of the horses I fancy most for the Royal feast of racing

Queen Anne - Endless Drama

I love Ger Lyon's Endless Drama for this race. He is a big, no huge, horse so will definitely have needed and come on for his re-appearance run in the Lockinge stakes the last day. He has a really high cruising speed and this test will suit him down to the ground, as will the softer going. Both the trainer and the rider Colin Keane love him and for good reason!

Colin Keane on Endless Drama:

“Endless Drama is just different gravy to anything else we have at home”

“He’s the best horse I’ve ever sat on”

“A horse like Brendan Bracken, who is a proper horse and a Group 3 winner, is not even good enough to lead him in canters”

"I’d be very confident of beating Belardo this time. We finished ahead of him in the Irish Guineas last year but he had 2 runs under his belt before the Lockinge and we were having our first run for over a year”

“It looks a wide-open race but our fella is a monster – I’m just praying they get a bit of rain”

“Endless Drama is just different class. He’s a monster”

Extremely positive from the jockey who is riding plenty of winners and a jockey I really like. Endless Drama has some very good form in the book already, his 2nd place in the Irish Guineas behind Gleneagles probably the standout, and I think there is loads more to come. At 10/1 with Bet365 this horse rates an absolutely cracking bet for the Queen Anne where one would imagine Tepin, market leader, will be vulnerable on softer ground. I can see him turning the form round with Belardo, who had the benefit of a recent run in the Lockinge,  and quite frankly I love his price.

Endless Drama going down narrowly to Gleneagles in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

Duke of Cambridge - Usherette

An Andre Fabre filly must always be high on anyone's shortlist when looking at a race and in Usherette he has a very special horse. This filly came over here for the Dehlia stakes at Newmarket in May and absolutely routed a good field, leaving the likes of Amazing Maria, Jazzi Top and Arabian Queen in her wake as she romped to victory. That race was her comeback race for the season and one would imagine she will come on for that and be even better this time.

The beautiful Usherette at Newmarket

Usherette has raced 5 times in her career to date, winning 4 of those races, and is proven on soft and good ground so we need not worry about ground conditions on Wednesday. Andre Fabre absolutely loves this horse; in a recent press day ahead of the Royal meeting John Ferguson, Godolphin Chief Executive, has this to say

"I love talking to Andre Fabre about this filly," said Ferguson. "He gets the biggest smile on his face when talking about Usherette [and] he's an extraordinary judge."

The trainer is excited, the owners are excited and I am excited by Usherette. She will carry a penalty on Wednesday but that field she beat was pretty good at Newmarket, her form stacks up against her chief rivals (for example she beat Irish Rookie far more easily than Devonshire did) and everything looks set for her to add another Group 2 race to her roster.

One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 2

Day 1 was a loser, annoyingly Patrice Evra gave away a stupid penalty and Romania managed to bag a goal. Perhaps 35 years young is not the prime year of a footballer's career. Still, Payet got them out of a hole in the latter stages of the game and lit up the game with an early contender for goal of the tournament. Let's hope things can improve for this blog as well, maybe a bit of the Payet magic will rub off on us.

Running total - 1 Unit

Day 2 - Wales vs Slovakia

Day 2 and I'm going for goals; I think both teams will come into this game targeting this match as a possible 3 points in their quest to finish 2nd in the group and qualify for the knockout stages of the tournament. 

Wales will be relying on Gareth Bale for their goals and with him in the team they have a constant goal threat. However, he is supported by some capable players, the likes of Joe Allen, possibly Joe Ledley and Aaron Ramsay and will surely be capable of getting on the scoresheet.
Slovakia like a few goals in their games; both teams have scored in 6 out of Slovakia's last 8 games. They are a strong unit as proved by their 3-1 friendly win over Germany in the build up to this tournament and have some formidable players, most notably Hamsik who scored in the game against the Germans. 
I think with both teams keen to get off to a good start in the group we will get at least a goal each for Wales and Slovakia

Bet 2 - Both Teams to Score - 11/8 (Bet365) 1 Unit

Edit - England Bet added!

I realised I couldn't really neglect the England match in my preview so I'll cheat a bit and add in an extra bet for the days England are playing if I haven't recommended a bet in that match. After all, I lack all discipline in my horse racing betting so why change the habit of a lifetime!
So for the opening game of England's Euro campaign they face a Russian side who would pose a serious threat but for the face their midfield has been decimated by injuries.  Igor Denisov is one of five notable absentees from their squad, joining Alan Dzagoev, Denis Cheryshev, Yuri Zhirkov and Oleg Kuzmin. Because of this I think Russia will now aim to frustrate, and this England side are fairly easily frustrated. They will be hard to break down and I think we may have to rely on a set piece for the opening game for England. Therefore I'm going with a fairly outlandish first goalscorer bet. Both Chris Smalling and Gary Cahill are available at big odds, 33/1 and 40/1, to open the scoring so I suggest 0.5 points on both of these players.

Bet 3 - Chris Smalling First Goalscorer 0.5 points 33/1 Bet365
         - Gary Cahill First Goalscorer 0.5 points 40/1 Betbright

One Bet a Day for Euro 2016 - Day 1

So for the next few weeks I'm going to try and have a bet a day throughout the Euro 2016 tournament in France, starting today, and see if I can return a profit...I'll be keeping a running total and using oddschecker to get the best price, so off we go with day 1

Day 1 - France vs Romania

I fully expect Romania to try and keep things tight, frustrating the French and really trying to get a draw here. And they do have previous, they have managed away draws with Hungary, Northern Ireland and best of all Italy in the last year or so, so their defence must be respected. However, the French look very formidable opponents going forward, far better than the teams previously mentioned, and I think will be able to make the breakthrough eventually. I don't expect a barrel load of goals but do think France will get off to a winning start. Therefore the recommended bet is a France win and under 2.5 goals in the game.

Bet 1 - France to win and under 2.5 goals Odds - 9/5 (Stan James) 1 Unit

The Epsom Derby - 4th June 2016

On Saturday at Epsom Downs Racecourse we will have the richest ever running of the Derby, thanks mainly to the number of supplemented runners in this year's renewal. This is due to the open nature the Derby had to it, with no real standout performer on from thus far.

The two at the top of the market, US Army Ranger and Wings of Desire, well....US Army Ranger was extremely lucky to win at Chester the last day and Wings of Desire himself had to be supplemented after being withdrawn by the trainer at an earlier stage! If you fancy either of these you can get around 4/1. For me US Army Ranger may be a little immature for a race of this nature but could be the best horse in time. Wings of Desire would be the one of the two I favour at the head of the market, he is already proven over the trip and won the best Derby trial in the Dante at York (beating Deauville in the process who reposes). However, against both of these is that neither raced at two, both made debuts this year, and while horses have overcome this (Ruler of the World an example from the O'Brien yard) it is a big ask as it requires a horse to learn a lot in a short space of time. Epsom is a daunting arena, the atmosphere cannot be underestimated, and this potential lack of experience may be a slight negative.

2015 Derby winner Golden Horn

Looking around the market at a few others at short prices and I am shocked at quite how short Ulysses is. For sure, he represents top connections that cannot be underestimated but this horse's form, winning a maiden so far, do not merit a price of 7/1 for the Derby! He is rated 98, a full 16lbs lower than Wings of Desire, on his form in the book so it seems crackers to me that he can be so short. Not for me at that price.

I'm not massively clued up on my French form but from what I've read the form of Cloth of Stars isn't actually that good and he is the price he is based on the fact he is trained by Andre Fabre, winner of course with Pour Moi, also ridden by Mickael Barzalona. Algometer will need the rain to come again for him to have a chance and for Harzand the same statement applies.

Shogun has a lot of experience but I'd be disappointed if he is good enough to win a Derby and looks held by a few of these on form and is a more likely place candidate. If I were to bet one of the O'Brien contingent it would be Port Douglas who really should have beat the favourite US Army Ranger last time out but for a very tender ride! The trip should be within his compass, he handled Chester and the tight turns at that track perfectly well and good and soft ground come alike - he handles both fine. At current price of 12/1 he looks the most backable of the O'Brien lot to me.

I'll get around to the one I do like and that comes in the shape of Moonlight Magic for Jim Bolger. I'd like the yard to be in better form but he is having a few winners and Moonlight magic has some excellent form, most notably his win last time out in the Derrinstown, a notable trial race. Forgive his flop the time before when thrashed by Harzand, the ground was far too soft that day, and Moonlight Magic is unbeaten on decent ground. He stays a 10f trip no problem, I see no reason why he won't handle this extra 2 furlongs, and Kevin Manning has become very experienced on top of this one. Bolger will know what it takes to win the race after he trained New Approach to victory in 2008 and he seems certain this horse will get the trip. The wise trainer has had this to say 

"I rate him as a good Derby prospect and I would not swap him for anything else in the race.

"He has the looks, the demeanour, the balance and temperament to go with his pedigree. He is a beautifully-balanced horse so he should handle Epsom well. I thought when he won the Derrinstown he was as good a Derrinstown winner as St Jovite. I could not be any happier than I am with him at the moment. He is very straightforward and is a lovely horse to work with. There are no holes in this fellow."

Some very taking quotes from Jim! As I say, ignore his flop in the heavy ground and he would be a fair few points shorter for this race. He rates my main selection at a nice enough 12/1

Derby selection Moonlight Magic

The Investec Oaks - 3rd June 2016

In just a few days time we will be treated to the Oaks and Derby, two absolutely brilliant races and in the Derby potentially the greatest flat race of them all. Run over 1 mile 4 furlongs around the tricky Epsom Downs racecourse, with it's notorious left hand turn and undulating nature making it a stern test for many a horse. The Oaks comes first, on Friday afternoon, so I'll turn my thoughts to this race first.

The market for the Oaks is headed by Minding, Aidan O'Brien's filly who comes here after winning the English 1,000 Guineas but being beaten in the Irish version on much softer ground. Further cause for concern for backers of this evens favourite come in the shape of the sinus problem encountered by the filly after she bumped her head before the race. She probably is the best of these fillies, certainly at a mile trip, and that defeat in Ireland still rates as very good form - the Irish Handicapper rated Jet Setting only 1lbs lower than the winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas, indicating with mares allowances Jet Setting would have pulverized that field. However, the step up in trip 4 furlongs, the tough race she had the last day and the fact her pedigree doesn't scream 1 mile 4 furlongs at you on softish ground lead me to look elsewhere.

Hot favourite Minding

Architecture is the most interesting one for me representing the yard of Hugo Palmer at 10/1. The trainer must be respected and he handled Covert Love with expert gloves so clearly can get his fillies to peak when he wants - lucky man. Went down a neck to Seventh Heaven, another Aidan O'Brien horse, in an Oaks trial at Lingfield and also was present at the Breakfast with the Stars event here so she should handle the track and has the magician Frankie Dettori on top. The winner at Lingfield was given an expert ride by Ryan Moore, who actually said she didn't handle that track, which gives me hope Architecture can turn the form around.

The Lingfield trial in which Architecture finished 2nd

She was definitely staying on at the end of that trial and I think she will get the trip, additionally she has form on soft ground so will handle the going conditions presented on Friday. I'm pretty confident she is improving all the time and Hugo Palmer seems to be fairly confident in his Betfair column, which you can read here-> (Hugo Palmer Betfair Column). If the favourite gets the trip she wins, but at the price I want to take her on and it looks an open enough race behind her, let's hope Architecture can do the business.

Others of interest include Turret Rocks, who definitely shapes like this trip will suit her but Jim Bolger isn't firing in the winners as I would like and the soft conditions will be against her, having never tan on soft ground. If it dried up rapidly before the off she must be considered but the fact soft ground is very likely puts me off. Skiffle has been supplemented for the race by the boys in blue and she is one that should certainly get the trip having shaped that way over 10 furlongs. At 11/2 though I'd let her go as I also feel she wants top of the ground to be at her best. Finally Harlequeen is the last horse of interest mainly because I'm interested that Mick Channon pitches her in here, but she didn't settle at all at York the last day and I think the occasion may get to her here.

Don't be put off by the price of your fancy in this race - 4 of the last 5 winners have been priced at 20/1 or bigger, including last year's winner Qualify at 50/1! To sum up I think Minding will win if she stays as she is the best filly in the race no doubt. However, her price is short enough, there are huge concerns about the trip and ground and I think her preparation could have been more ideal. Therefore, with likely softer ground, I'm putting up Architecture who has run well in trial races, has had a go round the track at the Breakfast with the Stars event and has the master Frankie Dettori on board.

Thanks for reading and good luck!

A few Cheltenham Horses

With Cheltenham less than 9 weeks away now and the action on the track being effected heavily by the weather recently I thought I would take a little time to outline some of the horses I want to be backing ante-post for the Cheltenham Festival. These are not the horses I think will definitely win at Cheltenham, just the ones I think offer very good ante-post value. Let me know what you think and if you agree or disagree!

Tombstone - Supreme Novices Hurdle

Tombstone is a huge price at 20/1

I think Gordon Elliott's horse is massive e/w value at 20/1 for the Festival opener. He was the best horse in the race the last day when just beaten by Long Dog in the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle. He just got no luck in running that day, for all the winner is a good horse, and the Gigginstown boys have said they will be hooding him ahead of his appearance in the Deloitte Novices Hurdle in Feb. I reckon that will see him improve again and fancy he will win the Deloitte, after which 20/1 will quickly evaporate and I think it'll be single figures about Tombstone for the Supreme. Take the 20/1 which gives great e/w value against the red hot favourite Min.

Garde La Victoire - Arkle

16/1 looks a big price for Garde La Victoire in the Arkle, considering he has won his last 4 races, including a C&D win over fences back in November, beating the likes of Fox Norton and Bristol De Mai (decent yardsticks) in decisive fashion. He will get further than the bare 2 miles which I like for the Arkle, especially considering the pace this will likely be run at and the Cheltenham Hill at the end of the race. There is a bit of uncertainty about his target, Arkle or JLT, but I'm prepared to take the risk for the reward of a lovely price for a horse with proven course form, proven distance form, stamina and a lovely willingness to battle and fight.

Cole Harden - World Hurdle

The reigning World Hurdle Champion

This horse comes alive in the spring on good ground, so even though he has not been a winner so far this season do not be put off by that. The ground has been unsuitable on both his runs so far this season but his wise trainer Warren Greatrex was apparently thrilled with his run at Cheltenham the last day when well beaten by Camping Ground. Come March, on better ground, the current World Hurdle Champion will be extremely hard to keep out the frame and looks a great e/w play at 9/1

Diamond King - Martin Pipe

Donald McCain will have been loath to lose Diamond King from his yard

Hello Gordon Elliott handicap project. He didn't run in the Ladbroke hurdle in this country, instead running in a little low key Hurdle race at Punchestown, because Gordon is a clever man and knows what it takes to win a handicap over in England! Sent to Gordon from Donald McCain (with a big reputation as an unfulfilled talent) on an incredible mark it has taken a couple of runs for Gordon to get him winning but now he has I think there is only 1 race for Diamond King. Gordon has confirmed the Martin Pipe is his target and the current 10/1 should be taken as I think this horse will go off much shorter once it gets backed in the weeks running up to the festival. He will have the assistance of top jockey Jack Kennedy on the day of the race as well, something that cannot be underestimated. However it has been pointed out to me by Adam Webb (@AdamWebb121 on twitter) that "I wouldn't back Diamond King yet as it's viable he could be handicapped out of the race & end up in the Coral Cup". I've backed him because I think he will go off a hell of a lot shorter if he races in the Martin Pipe, but I guess thats ante-post betting for you!

Doctor Harper - Unsure but one to watch (Alright, not an ante-post bet!)

This horse is an absolute classic David Pipe handicap plot. Beaten in his last 2 runs by L'ami Serge and Garde La Victoire, how harsh can the handicapper be? He was never put in the race the last day but ran into 2nd place close home and looks a banker to improve markedly up in trip which I am certain will happen come March. Not sure which handicap will be the target but if you want to take a chance and pick a race let me know what you go for!

Ante-Post view on the Welsh National

Well after a feast of action over the Christmas and New Year period we've got a quiet few days and I thought I would use this to have a quick look at the Welsh National next week. Obviously we don't have final decs through yet but we can be sure of a few things. 1) The ground will be soft to heavy 2) The trip is 3 miles 5 1/2 furlongs....3) Stamina is required and in bucket loads! So we want to be looking for horses that act on the ground, have form over an extreme distance and ideally something that will turn up!  Prior to the race being called off the Racing Post did help us a bit more by publishing some key trends for the race. These were

Aged 6 to 8 years old: 10/10 (Adjust this to 7-9 years old for the race this year)
Two or fewer runs since the end of September: 9/10
Top 4 finish last time out: 9/10
Previous win over at least 3 miles: 9/10
BHA Rating between 131 and 147: 7/10
Ten or fewer previous starts over fences: 7/10
Weight carried no more than 10.08: 7/10
Previous win at Chepstow (hurdles or fences): 6/10

So armed with that bit of help I'll get to work and try and find a selection or two.

Theatre Guide

Theatre guide is the first of my ante-post picks. Colin Tizzard's horse ran a great race in the Newbury Hennessy to finish a staying on 2nd to Smad Place, the runaway winner. He has run twice since September, so should be fairly fresh, and is 9 years of age, fitting the age stat. Obviously his 2nd place the last day in the Hennessy, over 3 miles 2 furlongs on soft ground, ticks out top 4 finish stat, and all of a sudden we are starting to look OK on the trends boxes! I was really impressed with Theatre Guide that day and he wasn't stopping at the end so this is one horse I am fairly confident of staying the trip. He has had more than his fair share of starts over fences, 16 all in all, but you could deem that good experience if you were looking with a positive slant on things! He has also won at Chepstow way back in 2011 over hurdles so the track should hold no fears. Theatre Guide was definitely a runner for the race before it was cancelled so I see no reason, and have read nothing from Colin, that would indicate he wouldn't be engaged this time.

One thing that worries me is his jumping, he can be a bit sloppy and that could find him out over the numerous fences at the Welsh National, but he last fell in February 2013 so it shouldn't worry us too much. I'd also have liked some winning form over a 3 mile trip but if Smad Place hand't been thrown in the Hennessy off a mark of 155 he would have gained a win there and be far higher in the handicap as a result.

All in all Theatre Guide looks a nice e/w bet as I am confident of him running into a place, and if his jumping holds up well enough to allow him to hold his position I could see the horse running a big race at 16/1.

Theatre Guide comes here off the back of a cracking run in the Hennessy

O'Faolains Boy

This horse could be absolutely thrown in off his mark of 150 and I can't go into the race without having a bet on him. The worry is that Rebecca Curtis won't run him here, he was taken out of the race previously as it was thought he hadn't sufficiently recovered his win at Newbury the last day, where he defeated Sausalito Sunrise as he liked, but with the extra time now provided by the rescheduling of the race hopefully he will come here.

Some of the form O'Faolains Boy has in his book is absolutely top class, he is an RSA Chase winner proving he has guts and stamina to match his class, is a winner at this course on heavy going before, loves the heavy ground he will encounter and has 3 chase wins from 7 runs all around the 3 mile trip so really should have a great chance of staying the distance here.

He is 9 years old, has only run twice since September, won last time out (a top 4 finish clearly), has won over 3 miles, has won at Chepstow before and has only had 7 runs over fences; so many of the key trends are ticked by Curtis's horse it would be criminal if he doesn't turn up! Rebecca rates this horse as Gold Cup class and off a mark of 150 (due to be rated 154 in the future) he could potentially hose up here.

Understandably you may be concerned by his comeback run, where he was pulled up after over a year off the track, but the way he bounced back from that, thrashing Sausalito Sunrise who had previously won at Cheltenham really nicely, should calm those fears. At a price of 12/1 O'Faolains Boy is a confident selection, the only concern being his participation in the race! If his participation is confident I expect this price to come crashing down so will take the gamble and back him now.

O'Faolains Boy could be absolutely chucked in the Welsh National in my opinion

Those are the two I will go to war with at the moment. Honourable mentions must go to last years winner Emperors Choice, Shotgun Paddy who went of favourite for that race and previous winner Mountainous, indeed I may go back in later in the week and add to my duo of runners, but for now I'm happy with Theatre Guide at 16/1 and O'Faolains Boy at 12/1.