The two at the top of the market, US Army Ranger and Wings of Desire, well....US Army Ranger was extremely lucky to win at Chester the last day and Wings of Desire himself had to be supplemented after being withdrawn by the trainer at an earlier stage! If you fancy either of these you can get around 4/1. For me US Army Ranger may be a little immature for a race of this nature but could be the best horse in time. Wings of Desire would be the one of the two I favour at the head of the market, he is already proven over the trip and won the best Derby trial in the Dante at York (beating Deauville in the process who reposes). However, against both of these is that neither raced at two, both made debuts this year, and while horses have overcome this (Ruler of the World an example from the O'Brien yard) it is a big ask as it requires a horse to learn a lot in a short space of time. Epsom is a daunting arena, the atmosphere cannot be underestimated, and this potential lack of experience may be a slight negative.
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| 2015 Derby winner Golden Horn |
Looking around the market at a few others at short prices and I am shocked at quite how short Ulysses is. For sure, he represents top connections that cannot be underestimated but this horse's form, winning a maiden so far, do not merit a price of 7/1 for the Derby! He is rated 98, a full 16lbs lower than Wings of Desire, on his form in the book so it seems crackers to me that he can be so short. Not for me at that price.
I'm not massively clued up on my French form but from what I've read the form of Cloth of Stars isn't actually that good and he is the price he is based on the fact he is trained by Andre Fabre, winner of course with Pour Moi, also ridden by Mickael Barzalona. Algometer will need the rain to come again for him to have a chance and for Harzand the same statement applies.
Shogun has a lot of experience but I'd be disappointed if he is good enough to win a Derby and looks held by a few of these on form and is a more likely place candidate. If I were to bet one of the O'Brien contingent it would be Port Douglas who really should have beat the favourite US Army Ranger last time out but for a very tender ride! The trip should be within his compass, he handled Chester and the tight turns at that track perfectly well and good and soft ground come alike - he handles both fine. At current price of 12/1 he looks the most backable of the O'Brien lot to me.
I'll get around to the one I do like and that comes in the shape of Moonlight Magic for Jim Bolger. I'd like the yard to be in better form but he is having a few winners and Moonlight magic has some excellent form, most notably his win last time out in the Derrinstown, a notable trial race. Forgive his flop the time before when thrashed by Harzand, the ground was far too soft that day, and Moonlight Magic is unbeaten on decent ground. He stays a 10f trip no problem, I see no reason why he won't handle this extra 2 furlongs, and Kevin Manning has become very experienced on top of this one. Bolger will know what it takes to win the race after he trained New Approach to victory in 2008 and he seems certain this horse will get the trip. The wise trainer has had this to say
"I rate him as a good Derby prospect and I would not swap him for anything else in the race.
"He has the looks, the demeanour, the balance and temperament to go with his pedigree. He is a beautifully-balanced horse so he should handle Epsom well. I thought when he won the Derrinstown he was as good a Derrinstown winner as St Jovite. I could not be any happier than I am with him at the moment. He is very straightforward and is a lovely horse to work with. There are no holes in this fellow."
Some very taking quotes from Jim! As I say, ignore his flop in the heavy ground and he would be a fair few points shorter for this race. He rates my main selection at a nice enough 12/1
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| Derby selection Moonlight Magic |
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