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Wednesday, 19 November 2014

The Season Ahead with the London Racing Club

Right, let's get cracking with part 2 of the review of the fantastic National Hunt Season Preview with the London Racing Club who staged their Preview Night in early November. The panel, chaired by Sam Lawrie and made up of Nick Watts, Jon Ivan-Duke and Declan Rix, looked ahead to the upcoming season starting with...

The Hennessy


Double winner Denman on his way to his first Hennessy victory (Photo: Racing Post)

DR began with his views on Irish fancy Djakadam, who he thought was a bright light for the season ahead but not for DR in this race due to the poor record of 5 year olds in the race. DR told us how keen Ruby Walsh was on this one for the season ahead though so definitely worth following in races, possibly just not this one. He is an old fashioned chaser, and certainly his current mark of 147 is workable. However it may be that he is outstayed late on by more furnished horses, but DR certainly can envisage him running well for a long way. DO NOT FORGET THIS ONE for the season ahead though!
He pointed out the great record of the front 4 in the market traditionally in this race, so warned the audience not to try and be too clever here, look for the 2nd season chasers and was siding with Smad Place. DR thought he would improve for the trip. Potentially look out for Lyreen Legend to front the Irish challenge, especially if the ground comes up soft. If it is bottomless then gives Harry Topper a chance.
JID thought that Djakadam was a deserved fav for the race but Many Clouds off a mark of 151 was interesting. Fingal Bay also, with the Hobbs yard flying, was very exciting over fences after his exploits over hurdles last season. Smad Place, at 10/1, was interesting but the market, in JID's opinion, had this spot on at the moment with the top 4 in the market deservedly there. He voiced concerns over Rocky Creek's return given his price of 12/1, however SL told the audience Sam TD was actually very sweet on Rocky's comeback run.
NW Also a Rocky Creek fan, thinks he has had a breathing tweak and we all know just what improvement they can bring about! He wasn't convinced over Smad Place's staying ability over this trip and Many Clouds was the one for NW at the price. Oliver Sherwood doesn;t get enough credit for his excellent training efforts in NW's opinion, Many Clouds beat the fav for this years Gold Cup first time out, has done it in big fields, ran a cracker first time out at Ascot last year and ticks all the boxes for NW. Oliver Sherwood has won this race before and in Many Clouds NW thinks he could repeat the trick in 2014.

King George
Kauto Star brought the roof down at Kempton in 2011 with a 5th King George win (Photo:Steve Parsons)

JID wanted Champagne Fever over for the race, and this was before he smashed the field to pieces in the Clonmel Oil Chase the following day. He pointed out Kempton clearly suits Captain Chris, who will be aimed at this race, and 25.1 was a cracking bet at the prices. Silviniaco Conti was the one for him at the head of the market.
NW liked Dynaste for the race, he was shocked at his Aintree loss and pointed out the horses record fresh. He dismissed Al Ferof when asked of his chance by SL. However he does love Don Cossack, however DR thought the Don was a Grade 2/3 horse at best and told us to leave him to mop up at Thurles and the like. Wanted to see how Simonsig got on in the Peterborough Chase before getting involved at 5/1
DR thought Cue Card did stay and was a major fancy if the race to be run on a decent surface. He couldn't believe Silviniaco Conti didn't win last year, confirmed this was the target for Champagne Fever and also thought 25/1 on Captain Chris was a massive price. Another Irish horse Road to Riches still needs to prove his worth in the eyes of DR but was absolutely foot perfect first time out. Simonsig was exciting but maybe not at this trip.

Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle


There wouldn't be a dry eye in the house if The Fly could win at Cheltenham in 2015 (Photo:Michael Steele)


JID was not a fan of The New One as he didn't think the horse likes Kempton, always loves smashing the final flight to bits!
DR thought Ireland was more healthy that England in this division but Faugheen was the wrong fav given that Jezki was the prove horse; a Champion Hurdler us against Faugheen, a 3 mile winner on soft ground-he has a lot to prove and not got the solid form, certainly has the Mullins hype though! He said Faugheen would be campaigned softly, mopping up around 2/9 price and wouldn't really be able to justifiably be shortened in the market. Jezki the value call for Declan. Put up a horse not even priced up yet in Renetti, 2nd to the Tulle Tank in the Royal Bond, niggly injuries held this one back but you could get on at huge prices and could be worth a quid.
NW was keen on TNO to reverse Cheltenham form with Jezki, however for the Christmas Hurdle didn't think TBO was in love with Kempton either. Could see a very uncompetitive event. Reveled that in the Champion Hurdle last season TNO got a kick in the belly from Our Conor when OC fatally fell, from then on STD was very cautions with TNO until he knew he had recovered from the kick, from which point he absolutely motored home (From the authors POV does this mean TNO didn't tire himself getting involved in the bursts at the front of the race, saved himself and then finished strongly?) but NW would definitely be with TNo in the Champion this season.

Champion Chase

Just how fantastic would it be to get Sprinter Sacre back to his glorious best (Photo:Getty Images)

Main theme was the doubts over the front 2 in the market
DR told the audience that not only was the old Sprinter Sacre still not showing yet but Sire De Grugy spent most of last season with lameness here and there and was hard to keep niggle free. He wouldn't be surprised to see SS retired this season! Champagne Fever at 16/1 with a firm that are Non Runner Free Bet was the advice given by DR, who put up Bright New Dawn as a dark horse for this one. Wouldn't settle over the RSA chase distance but down in trip could see him going really well if allowed to bowl on out in front.
NW wouldn't be shocked of one of the novice chasers like Vautor or Josses Hill were to pitch up in the Queen Mum given the similarities between the fierce Arkle Chase and the Championship equivalent. Put up the Henry De Bromhead trained Moscow Mannan, 2nd behind Gods Own with hot horses in behind last season and a good winner on his seasonal debut this season.
JID could also see an Arkle horse being tempted into this race, liked Hidden Cyclone who gave a stone to Johns Spirit in last seasons PP GC and ran a blinder to finish 3ed. His 2nd to Dynaste in the Ryanair is good form.

Gold Cup


The Tank; My favourite Gold Cup winner of recent times

SL introduced this as a wide open renewal, how often do you see 10/1 the field about a GC winner in November!?!?
NW thought this was a murky market and hadn't seen anything to convince him yet this season. The race was messy last season, putting up the fact Lyreen Legend was in there pitching a few out! Boston Bob was the one for him at a big price at this stage; good ground will suit and he could finally be fulfilling his jumping potential this season but admitted his Cheltenham form was a concern.
DR told us to take no notice of the Holywell's comeback, he is a spring horse and only races properly when the magic blinkers are on. Irish hope Sire Des Champs was a worry with his tendon injury, DR wouldn't touch until he was convinced of his wellbeing. Morning Assembly needs it soft but is a horse he does like as he jumps and stays well so with conditions not one to rule out. Look to the Lexus race over Christmas to see if the improvement seen in Shutthefrontdoor (breathing operation) will be enough to make him a potential winner of this one.
JID reported money for STFD, 33/1 into 20/1 in recent days, however reported a good spread of money across the market reflecting the open nature of the race this year. All horses would beat each other throughout the season and this was a very hard race to punt ante-post for Jon.

World Hurlde


The World Hurdle will forever be associated with the great 5 time winner Big Bucks (Photo:Tom Jenkins, the Guardian)

NW said that we had a very worthy winner of this race in 2014 in More of That and saw no reason why the mare Annie Power would reverse the form. Everything was right about More of That as a potential winner this season except the price. At a more attractive price Briar Hill, who beat Very Wood and Apache Jack giving them weight last season, had top form and has the pace for a top race given his Champion Bumper win. 10/1 was the value in the market.
DR was also a huge fan of Briar Hill, a lazy sort who only ever does what he needs to. Definitely does not lack pace but the Ryanair could be his perfect trip. 5/2 was a joke of a price on MoT given the dangerous Beat That in the market - DR says Geraghty is in love with this one and BT has improved physically over the summer)
JID told us MoT deserved to be fav, agreed 5/2 was too short for an ante-post bet at this stage of the season. Again another Briar Hill supporter, whom he described as an absolute machine! Perfect animal for the World Hurdle in his opinion. In a fairly weak division 10/1 was a huge price for JID.

Novice Hurdle Division

DR from an Irish POV the early signs were that (surprise surprise) Willie Mullins had a very strong hand in this division. Tell Us More (a Patrick Mullins Horse to Follow) was in the Faugheen bracket when it comes to hype. His bumper win by 24 lengths was very special and one to keep on side. Added Shanes Hill, Black Hercules, Royal Caviar and Milsean as horses from the stable to watch. Allex Colombieres was by all accounts the WM Supreme horse but already a 10/1 shot for this race, already a huge loser for Hills according to JID.
NW said Tell Us More carried a hell of a lot of confidence behind him. Don't touch Forgotten Rules he warns, he is too good to go jumping and will stick to the flat, too much value to lose. Vigil was very interesting for Dermot Weld, likes cut in the ground and will be targeted at Leopardstown around Christmas. West Wizard, whos form behind Sergeant Reckless now looks very good, was a Supreme potential but Hendo has a shocking record in the race, last won it in 1992 (NW did post the question of when Hendo last won the race to the audience but no-one got it!) DR asked did WW have the toe for the Supreme, he had stamina in his pedigree over steed for DR.

JID likes Jollyallan from the Harry Fry yard. In 3 starts last season he was 6th in a Punchestown bumper and win his Novice hurdle this season despite greenness and not looking the finished article by any stretch of the imagination. This is what made him really exciting for JID though and thinks there is loads more to come from this one.. Also put up recent Ffos Las loser Fletchers Flyer, who should really have won at the Welsh venue.

Novice Chase Division

DR had his number 1 dark horse in this division in Sizing Tennessee, the Alan Potts horse who won a maiden hurdle at Navan last season before being moved from Mullins to HDH. ST will win races and was DR horse to follow.
When the mud is flying look out for Cloudy Copper, was sick last year but had a great summer and will win races for Jonjo O'Neil, albeit around the Grade 3 level.
JID thought this was a really exciting division, Clondaw Court, an unbeaten horse, 27 length winner of a bumper, P2P winner and a winner twice already over hurdles was one for Jon. Thought Josses Hill was a potential World Class Chaser.
Channon had a couple in Knock House who jumped for fun on his debut and Paradise Valley, who we can expect a lot more from.
Nicky Richards has Eduard for older chasers and Blakemount for the staying Novice chases.
NW also loved Knock House, said Channon's link with hen Knight was helping hugely. Kock House respects his fences but enjoys them and could see him not quite being out of the top bracket but certainly a good handicapper.
Thomas Crapper also was one for good handicaps for Robin Oliver, play this one's cards right, don't over pitch him and he could well turn up off a good mark in the Martin Pipe race back at Cheltenham in March (liked his Cheltenham form already in the book)

Elsewhere


Who doesn't love a good dark horse!

DR had Free Expression as a bumper horse from the P2P field for Gordon Elliott.
The Tullow Tank will be making his mark this season
Aaron hill for Jessie Harrington was on a good mark given good ground.
Top Notch was a horse that Barry Geraghty LOVES (DR from ATR, BG blogs for the firm)
Don Poli, every inch a chaser, would be sent chasing. Look at how he dotted up in the Martin Pipe last season for this one's potential.
It was a worry for DR that Josses Hill was yet to jump a fence this season.
Also pointed out the poor strike rate of Willie Mullins over fences at Cheltenham as something to be wary of.
Horse called Different Gravy had come from the pointing scene in Ireland and was one to follow.
SL put up Le Mercury as a 4 year old, although unfortunately no longer a novice but one the yard were dead keen on.
Kalkir was a horse already smashed into in the Triumph Hurdle market
NW put up Wichwoods Brook (this was greeted by approval from one member of the audience) who has had a good summer and improved a lot for Evan Williams. The trainer was very impressed with this one and on soft ground will mark his mark.
Carols Destiny also a nice horse
For Hunter Chases he told us that Quinz had recently gone to into the care of Alan Hill and given his form over fences could be a real lively one in this division.


And breathe! That was it for the evening from the panel, my hand was in pain as I'd be busy trying to jot down all the gems of info given out but apologies to the chaps if I missed anything. Anyway there is plenty there for the horse tracker! Once again I'd just like to thank the panel of Sam Lawire, Jon Ivan-Duke, Declan Rix and Nick Watts for their time both that evening and on twitter in the aftermath of the event, and obvious thanks to the London Racing Club for putting on the even. I urge you to attend one of these events if you get the opportunity.

Sunday, 16 November 2014

Cheltenham Review - a bumper 3 days of action!

Wow...What a great 3 days at Cheltenham, when does the home of jumps racing ever let us down though eh? But with so much great action to review let's not waste time and get straight into the action

Friday 14th - Hobbs Runs Riot!

Friday was some day to remember for the Hobbs and Dickie Johnson partnership as they nailed a 105/1 treble featuring a potential Grand National winner this year in Balthazar King, who took the Cross Country race for the 2nd year running. On a day where sunshine wreaked havoc, leading to fences being crossed out here there and everywhere punters managed to latch onto Balthazar King and punted him into a 4/7 poke. The experienced campaigner rewarded their faith, beating home Uncle Junior and Sire Collonges on his way to retaining his title. Hobbs immediately nominated the Grand National as the target for this one and plans to send him straight there, he can certainly jumps for fun so must have a good chance if he can stay fit and healthy in the lead up to the big one in April.

The highlight of the treble for me though was the victory of Champagne West in the Novices Chase, a horse we flagged in the preview as being potentially very smart and we were fortunately rewarded as he led home a Hobbs 1-2, beating perennial bridesmade and highest rated maiden fencer in training Colour Squadron. Quotes after the race of 20/1 for the RSA could certainly tempt some punters in as whatever this horse did over hurdles was always going to be a bonus (I know, that old clique!) and he looks a really exciting one for the season ahead. The jockey said post-race that the winner usually comes on for his run, and Hobbs said he thought there would be more improvement to come up in trip as well, so I'm definitely following Champagne West for a while yet.

Champagne West impresses in the bright sunshine (Edward Whittaker)
We had a bit of an upset in the 3.00 as Barry Geraghty rode the John Ferguson Parlour Games victory as the 10/1 shot upset the applecart, beating 13/8 fav Blaklion and the heavily punter Port Melon in impressive manner with his smart turn of foot being the deciding factor. Blaklion tried to make all but wasn't up to the task and Parlour Games romped home up the hill. I'm pretty sure the lack of pace on in this race favoured the winner and disadvantaged Blaklion and Port Melon so I definitely wouldn't give up on the beaten horses just yet. However the winner is beautifully bred, the best-bred Barry has ever ridden apparently, and could be one to look out for especially when we get back on a bit better going as being a flat-bred you would think he would appreciate a firmer surface.

Elsewhere on the Friday Kim Bailey broke a 4,382 day run since his last victory at the course as he took the honours in the opening amature riders handicap with Charingworth. That is way too long for a trainer of Bailey's calibre to go without victory at NH HQ and I certainly doubt he will be waiting that long until his next one! Bold Henry was a winner in the JP McManus silks and also rewarded Pricewise followers, with Tom Segal putting him up at 12/1 in the morning paper, actually returning at an SP of 14/1, rare for a pricewise tip AND a JP winner! And we were denied a romantic end to the card when Sam Twiston-Davis narrowly denied Tom Scudamore a winner in the race named after his grandfather as he got Morito Du Berlais home ahead of the Scudamore-ridden Knight of Noir. Nicholls revealed post-race the winner had undergone a breathing operation, information I'd rather have heard pre-race to be honest but how often do we find ourselves saying that in this game...I do rather think that these procedures should be declared in the same way as headgear, however I do understand it is a bit of a grey area as there are many different types of breathing op, some much more major than others. I guess we will just have to keep on finding out after missing another winner who has had his breathing fiddled with.

Saturday 15th - A Day of Doubles 

John Ferguson started the day in the same form he ended yesterday in...good! His Chesterfield kept on improving his trainers record at Cheltenham, which was poor before this weekend, as he scored by a length over Great Choice who recorded another 2nd place for his rider Tom Scudamore at this meeting. This was a tricky looking handicap before so well done to those who found the winner, Geraghty and Ferguson are forming a really good partnership this year. The one to take out of this race for me was 25/1 shot Song Light who, under 7lbs claimer Kevin Jones, arrived late onto the scene and couldn't get to the winner and runner up however I fancy his trainer Seamus Mullins to find a race for this one in the future. He definitely ran a lot better than his SP suggested he would.
King's Palace put in a really impressive round of jumping on his fencing debut as Tom Scu improved on his 2nd place in the opener to take a very competitive Novice Chase up at 1.15. This really was a lovely round of jumping and I fancy there is a lot more to come from King's Palace as he did appear to idle slightly when left alone out in front, before staying on again as Sausalito Sunrise came to challenge. Turns out this one was another who has had his breathing operated on over the summer and the RSA Chase was nominated as the target for Kings Palace post-race, for which he was cut into 12/1 from 20/1 by Sky Bet. Obviously he was receiving 5lbs from the field, which won't happen any longer, and one of the major contenders did fall in Creepy but that's what the fences are there to do; test a horses jumping! As a chasing debut you had to be very impressed and it will be interesting to see how he goes at Kempton on Boxing Day if he lines up in the Novice Chase at the King George meet.
King's Palace; a really impressive fencing debut (Martin Lynch)

A late Friday tweak to the blog, after Our Father emerged a non-runner for the 1:50, proved profitable as Sam TD gave Sam Winner a great ride to win the Handicap Chase off top weight, really impressive given the testing nature of the ground at Cheltenham on the Saturday. Nicholls was in absolutely no doubt after the race that Sam Winner is a National horse (25/1 for that in case you were wondering) for which SW definitely looks to have the stamina reserves to make an entry worthwhile. Old boy the Package was disappointing here given how well he goes well fresh and perhaps the zest has gone sadly at the age of 11 and it will be interesting to see if Pipe keeps him on the go; he really owes the yard nothing though and no doubt Pipe will do best for the horse.
Onwards we moved to the big race of the day; the Paddy Power Gold Cup, an ultra competitive handicap which there were so many you could make a case for. There were plenty in with a chance coming over the last and we saw an absolute cracker of a finish with Sam TD carrying on where he left off giving Caid Du Berlais an absolute power-packed ride to get this one up in the dying strides of the race to deny last years winner John's Spirit. The runner up produced a great run, really heroic given the weight he was lumbering, and Present View also jumped for fun and ran really well into 3rd on ground that may not have suited, but what a run by the Paul Nicholls inmate. The form of this one will no doubt stack up really well, with 10/1, 8/1, 5/1, 6/1 and 7/1 the prices of the first 5 home reflecting the fact that most horses appear to have given their running so worth watching this one back a few times. Even top hurdler Oscar Whiskey ran to form over the larger obstacles and could well have won the race but for his 1 bad jump close to the end, that would have been some Geraghty magic. I don't know if I'll watch it back too soon though, my heart really goes out to John's Spirit who got so, so close to a memorable double in the race and I might be close to tears if I watch it too soon! After this run you would imagine he will get another hike in the weights and a step up in class beckons; 12/1 for the Ryanair Chase if you fancy him to take that step up in his stride.
Caid Du Berlais gets up by the narrowest of margins in the big one

Before the 3.00 we saw a huge move in the market for Big Easy, 11/4 from 5/1 and probably helped by Terry Warner's pre-race quote;"This one will win barring accidents!". Big Easy had won a big, competitive 33 runner handicap on the flat so the question was could he transfer his form over to the hurdles. Well the answer was yes but he was still denied by Katkeau, the subject of a masterful training performance by David Pipe to get this one ready to win after a 630 day absence and also get the double up for the trainer/jockey duo. No doubt a few bookies will have been toasting the Pipe mastery on Saturday evening, although Katkeau was gambled before the race I don't think it was to the same extent as Big Easy.
The penultimate race on the card went to that familiar duo from Friday; Hobbs and Johnson. These trials for the Triumph and Supreme Novice hurdles run early in the season are normally trumped by something that hasn't run till after Christmas but there was no faulting the attitude of the winner Golden Doyen as he battled away gamely to see off Hargam from the Henderson yard. The winner is still only 16/1 for glory in March however and may need really testing conditions to be seen at his best; if he gets those then you would need a hardy sort to get past him.
Finally a really pleasing bumper for the blog ended the card as Bitofapuzzle from the Harry Fry yard took the spoils at 4/1. She will now head over hurdles and given soft conditions and a stamina test I would make her of interest again. Daring Carlotta disappointed in 3rd place with a few fingers pointed at her jockey on social media post race; she certainly was left with a lot to do to catch the eventual winner. However Bitofapuzzle's performance should not be underestimated, after all she was giving weight to the field, a nice prospect for Fry for the season ahead. This win made Fehily the 5th double winner of the day, following in the footsteps of Sam TD, Nicholls, Tom Scu and David Pipe. The trainers may allow themselves a double or two in the evening, sadly for the jockeys they can't with another bumper day awaiting them on Sunday!

Sunday - RIP Dessie Hughes

Sunday began with the shocking news of master trainer Dessie Hughes, completely out of the blue and awfully sad news. RIP Dessie and thoughts go out to his family.
RIP Dessie

Onto the action on the track and the day began with another Pipe winner, overcoming another massive absence from the track as Unique De Cotte defied a 640 day absence to give Pipe is first JP McManus owned winner. How appropriate it should be a heavily punted favourite! Nicely all the jockeys at Cheltenham on the Sunday wore black armbands as a sign of respect for Dessie.
The 2nd race gave Nicky Henderson his first winner of the 2014 meeting, it would have been crazy if Nicky had gone the whole weekend without scoring given his prominent position in many Champion Trainer books. Hendo must have worn a wry smile as his Vyta Du Roc defied a Paul Nicholls trained favourite in Emerging Talent, the front two pulling a way clear in this 'trial' for the Supreme Novices hurdle (25/1 for the winner) and connections of winner and runner up can be pleased with their runs.

I wasn't that fussed about the first two races on the card however the 3rd up, an Arkle trial, was really exciting with some nice novices going full pelt at the fences over 2 miles. Dunraven Storm and Little John led the field round as they queued up behind; Duke of Navan gave way first through tiredness and then actually fell at the final fence while Vibrato Valtat was on the end of a waiting ride from Sam TD. Little John bravely led over the last but could not hold off the powerful charge of Dunraven Storm; yet another success for Hobbs and Johnson, they have certainly had some meeting! Vibrato Valtat, whom I voiced concerns over his desire to get into a fight, had every chance but really looked booked for 2nd to me and I'd be wary of following him in competitive races for all he jumps well enough.

We took a break from Cheltenham briefly to let emotion overcome us as Hurricane Fly smashed his critics into the ground as he beat Jezki to take another Grade 1 success in the Morgiana Hurdle. I absolutely love the fly but actually backed against him today with the mare Little King RObin in the hope she might get too much rope out in front. However I don't know if I've ever been as happy to lose a bet! The King is dead, Long Live the King!!!!



Now back to the action this side of the Irish sea as the Sholer chase came up next, sadly lacking the two big stars that could potentially have lined up in Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy. However we saw a beautiful jumping performance from the front from Uxizandre as he dropped to 2 miles to take the plaudits and jump towards the head of the Queen Mother CC market. This was a spectacular jumping performance from Alan King's charge under a top Geraghty ride, keep this one to two miles considering the doubts over SS and SDG in the Champion Chase market would be my advice! He had some good good horses in behind but just could not be caught, I'd love to see come March Uxizandre, Sprinter and Sire De Grugy go at it over the minimum trip, one of the races of the meeting that would be.

The big race of the day at Cheltenham, the Greatwood Hurdle, came up at 3.15 and yet again Hobbs and Johnson were the victors as Garde La Victoire toughed it out to see off Vaniteux and Clondaw Warrior. In beating 2 very well handicapped horses who headed the marked you cannot say this was an undeserved winner, in fact you have to be nothing but impressed by the manner of victory. No-one could have been surprised if 2nd and 3rd had been 1st and 2nd so this, like the PP the previous day, could be form to follow throughout the season. My big fancy was Goodwood Mirage, however he was withdrawn due to the ground. Definitely don't give up on him though, given a decent surface don't be surprised if his handicap mark gets made to look silly, not like Jonjo hasn't done this trick before!

We signed off a fantastic weekend with another bumper and it was highly appropriate that the winner was ridden by Richard Johnson in Definitely Red. What a 3 days it has been for Dickie and it does make you wonder even more just how many jockey titles this man would have won if it weren't for AP McCoy? Definitely Red won this in really good style, with 15/8 f Birch Hill for the Henderson stable a big disappointment back in the field and well beaten a long way from home. Definitely Red eventually won unchallenged, the margin of victory similar to Dickie's margin of victory for jockey of the meeting with a whopping 7 victories. Top, top riding Richard!

And that was it. The end to a great three days from Prestbury park and three days what wet the appetite even more for the big festival come March. Still we've plenty of action to come before then and the quality National Hunt actions is coming thick and fast at the moment. It's time to end this review, watch the action back just a few more times maybe and then onto the next one starting with the Betfair Chase next weekend at Haydock.

Thanks for reading.

AB

Thursday, 13 November 2014

Cheltenham is here, preview with the help of the LRC

Cheltenham with the London Racing Club

Cheltenham's first big meeting of the year, I mean really big, is within touching distance now and I'm definitely not alone in being one hugely excited National Hunt fan! This excitement was only fuelled further by the fantastic preview night put on by the London Racing Club, where they looked ahead to Cheltenham and the season as a whole with a panel chaired by Sam Lawrie and featuring Nick Watts, Declan Rix and John Ivan-Duke. It was a 2 1/2 hour event jam packed with information and thoughts from the panel and a top, top evening. So I thought I'd blog about the experience, splitting into two parts. The first here; Cheltenham thoughts for the comping weekend from the panel and myself before a blog at a later date with some of the nuggets the panel shared for the season ahead.

Cheltenham Friday

Well lets start with the 1.50, glossing over the amature handicap that kicks off proceedings, and here NW was mad keen on the chances of Next Sensation. He reasoned that a mark of 145 was a great mark, his course form would stand him in good stead and he has also had the benefit of a prep run at Ascot to get him spot on for this assignment. There were no disagreements from the panel and a price of 12/1 looks very fair with this 2 mile trip sure to suit. Obviously in a huge 20 runner handicap nothing is a good thing but if you do back Next Sensation with his run style you will definitely get some excitement along the way!

We moved swiftly onto the 2.25, a Novice Chase Where we heard DR, the go to man for Irish Form, say that he really  was not keen on the WIllie Mullins novice chasers entered at the meeting due to the double penalties the three entered up from the WM yard would have to carry. An astute point considering they would also no doubt be short prices and one I noted keenly. DR would be looking outside the WM yard for his Novice CHasers. I was really pleased to hear both JID and NW put up Champagne West for this one; a classic chaser in the making and will also not mind the forecast conditions with form in heavy ground. For me I can't have Colour Squadron for this race at 9/4, does he really want to win? There are a lot of hot horses for the season here, Urban Hymn will love the ground and jumped well on debut, Splash of Ginge and Dell Arca have hot hurdles form from last year and Splash has already shown an aptitude for fences whilst even Bullet Street, despite his price, could show the benefit of experience over his less experienced chasing rivals. However for me, NW and JID Champagne West is the one for tomorrow and one I am hugely excited for as a Novice Chaser this season; a really hot race though.

For the 3.00 I had my alert through this evening for tracker horse Blaklion, unbeaten under rules for the Nigel Twiston-Davis yard and one who looks to have a fab attitude for racing. He has already won a race of this class when victorious last time out, has form on soft ground and Jamie Moore, who takes the mount tomorrow, is in good form in the saddle. However NW did raise the point at the preview of the headgear this horse has worn before, saying he could certainly see why he needs it, and I am a little concerned to see the hood left off tomorrow especially in the atmospherical cauldron that is Cheltenham. Look a little down the card and you see a certain Mr R Walsh riding for Jonjo O'Neil on Champagne Present, a horse NW thought would do better, along with the exciting flat recruit Parlour Games. The presence of these two, especially the Walsh mount, could ensure that Blaklion gets to a mark around 2/1 tomorrow and if that happens I'd be tempted. Much shorter though and the lack of headgear plus the two relatively unknown horses in the race would prevent me playing here, as much as I do admire Blaklion.

That was the end of the race by race previews for the Friday card from the panel, however Nick Watts did go on to flag a couple who he liked elsewhere. Firstly Cup Final, and I cannot stress how much NW fancied this one! He thought the horse, who runs in the 4.05 for the team of Geraghty/Henderson was absolutely thrown in on his mark of 125. He has good form from last season in the bag and steps into Handicap company here tomorrow, at Even money the way NW was talking you had a banker! Finally he put one up in the XC race, brave man, in the lovable old Carruthers who makes his debut in this sphere. NW would be more keen with some rain on this one's chances but thought the new discipline could bring about improvement for this classy type who has been good enough to win the Hennessy in his time.

That was all the panel mentioned on the Friday of the Cheltenham meet and we moved swiftly onto the Saturday, starting with the big one...

The Paddy Power Gold Cup

 Let me put my thoughts out there first and then tell you what the panel thought. Basically I'm with Buywise for this one. He ran an absolute belter of a race at the Festival last year, if he had jumped properly he would have won doing handstands, however because he didn't he is still on a very nice mark. The soft ground we will almost definitely have on Saturday won't pose any issues at all, and connections will surely have been schooling him repeatedly given the well known jumping concerns. Finally he won on his reappearance, over hurdles round a sharp track over a distance less than ideal...very impressive and a great pipe-opener showing him to have summered well. Buywise is definitely the one for me.
JID likes the chances of Indian Castle if it came up very heavy, thinking he may lack toe if it didn't. However thought the chances of the market principles Present View and Buywise were obvious and very real, big losers in the WIlliam Hill book.
Champion Court could be the value for JID, he was the 6/1 favourite for this race last year, dropped 6lbs since that run on his old form JID thought he could go very close and liked his price.
DR thought you could overlook the Irish Challenge, and pointed out that apparently the Henderson yard had been struggling to get Oscar Whiskey ready for this one. The two he liked were firstly Buywise, but because of his jumping he would be purely a win only bet and mentioned the good record of 7 year olds in the race as well.  Secondly he liked Persian Snow, also a runner in the Handicap at last years Cheltenham festival that Present View won, however he is much better at the weights on Saturday than Present View, Buywise and Johns Spirit. Of even more interest to DR if it rains.
NW fancied John's Spirit if it rained, while also saying Eastern Meteor off 148 could be very interesting and one to look out for outside the top of the marked.
The shocking win record of Colour Squadron was flagged up here but he no longer goes for the race, however the comments still apply as I mentioned earlier he is entered up on friday, and shockingly as a favourite!

The Rest of Saturday

The Paddy Power was the only race previewed in depth by the panel, however we did have selections in other races and I will briefly list them here.

NW In the 1.50 flagged up Our Father, but ONLY FOR SATURDAY and not the rest of the season due to his amazing record fresh and awful record any other time! The more rain the better for David Pipe's horse as well. The rest of the panel liked this one.
In the 3 mile Chase at 1.15 he flagged up Salsanito Sunrise for Philip Hobbs.


DR thought Rouge Angel was VERY interesting in the 1.50 against My Father for Mouse Morris. DR said this horse looks in rude health, showed great attitude on reappearance in a Galway race where he finished 2nd and can see him running a big race. However he did re-affirm his liking for Our Father in the same race, tricky!

JID went to the 3.00 where he put up Vieux Lion Rouge for David Pipe, who ran a shocker at the Cheltenham festival when rated very highly by John but he was keeping the faith and thought there was more to come as a 5 year old.

Personally myself for Saturday well...I'll be on Kings Palace in the 1.15; his record fresh reads win win, he was a top staying novice last season and really well fancies for the Albert Bartlett where he fell at the final flight. However he is effective on most surfaces and also I've heard he has schooled well. Pipe has won this race previously (2012) with chasing débutante Our Father so Kings Palace is the one I will be on here with Deputy Dan the biggest danger.

I'll be hoping for a quickfire Pipe double come the 1.50 as I also love Our Father, although have nothing further to add to NW's thoughts just love this one fresh (Record 1117) especially off 136 when he went off fav in the Hennessy off 147.

Friday Update; Unfortunately Our Father does not appear in the decs for tomorrow's race, so in his absence I'll be chancing Paul Nicholls horse Sam Winner here. He has bags of Cheltenham form, winning three times around here and won around this time last year when defeating the smart Le Bec. He also has a 5th place finish in the RSA Chase showing his stamina for the longer distances, and can summon a 2nd place behind SMad Place on heavy ground in his back catalogue for anyone with ground concerns. The tongue tie is applied by the master trainer for this race and I'm hoping that despite carrying top weight Sam Winner can put up a bold showing here.

Finally Bitofapuzzle for Harry fry in the mares bumper could be smart although This is a hot race. However she will love the mud and stays all day so could be coming up the hill very strongly. She has wins from a 3 mile p2p as well as form under rules, with conditions sure to favour her in hopeful of a nice price.

The rest of the card is still to be narrowed down for me, I'll probably wait until the day for that though.

Friday Update; I quite like the chances of Suzy Smiths Invicta Lake in the 3.00. Suzy has her string in cracking form and you can still get 14/1 about this last time out winner; that would definitely be shorter were Invicta Lake with a more 'fashionable' trainer. Providing conditions don't deteriorate further he could reward e/w investment with the trainer confident the Cheltenham course will suit.

That was it for the Saturday, and I almost dropped my phone trying to get a bet on Our Father quick enough after what the panel had to say! However they moved swiftly on to the Sunday and I had to get my pen and paper back out...



The Greatwood Hurdle

 Well I can sum this up in 1 word; Vaniteux. The panel put this up as their charity bet for the evening, even Sam Lawrie was giving his opinion out saying it was all about the top weight for him here. JID told punters to hold off as he couldn't see this one getting too much shorter, indeed thought some bookies would go standout bigger prices on Sunday, but did admit he would take all the beating. NW said that rain would be a bit of a negative though. DR said that Vaniteux could well outclass the field, even carrying top weight may not be enough, and while his price was about right he certainly wasn;t the value angle. Basically all the panel thought the top weight Henderson horse was the most likely winner by some way, hence the charity bet being placed on this one; all £200 of it as well!
Looking away fro the top weight JID liked Pine Creek at the price; a horse who goes well fresh, won first time out last year and was a huge price at 20/1. He also thought Exitas, although carrying a penalty for his Sandown win, could go well and be a bigger price than his form deserved because of his slightly unfashionable trainer. Still 7/1 a bit short with the penalty. NW was also keen on Exitas, however would be more keen on Baradari for the Williams yard if it turned really heavy. He said the Fred Winter 5th was good form but he really must have it heavy as otherwise won't have the toe for this one. Finally for NW Regal Encore off a mark of 130 must be of some interest given that one of the horses that beat him last season is now rated in the 150's (Seeyouatmidnight). However he must start to put this potential into action on the track and the Greatwood was really time to deliver, still 14.1 was a tempting price for NW.
SL thought Baltimore Rock would have been more popular with the punters.
DR agreed with NW on Baradari, an eyecatcher rattling home up the hill in the Fred Winter on spring ground that wouldn't have suited massively. He will come on for his comeback and the softer ground on Saturday could make him a value bet. Of the Mullin's 2 in the race DR was put off Daneking by the shocking record of front-running sorts in this race, and Daneking wasn't amazingly handicapped either. Clondow Warrior could lack experience for a test of this nature. The main selection for Declan in the Greatwood was Goodwood mirage, and he put forward a very convincing argument for O'Neil's charge here; Gelded over the summer this operation was always going to help GM jump a bit better, DR said he would be slightly more comfortable over his hurdles with less dangling away! He was impressed with his comeback victory at Wetherby, where despite showing keenness and getting no cover at all he jumped in a far more impressive manner and won well. Add that the the fact not many of Jonjo's win first time up and there is definitely improvement to come from that first run. DR thought the gelding operation could really help this expensive recruit  fulfil his potential, 12/1 was a good price but as mentioned Vaniteux could absolutely outclass the field.

The Rest of Sunday

NW liked Uxizandre in the Sholer Chase over 2 miles, thought it was a good shout by Alan King with the absence of Sire De Grugy to see if Uxizandre had the speed for 2 miles. He has had a run to put in straight at Aintree earlier in the season and could go well.

DR said Darling Carlotta was the only Irish interest and she goes for WIllie Mullins in the closing bumper on the card. Bottom weight, carrying 10 stone 7lbs compared to 11 stone that her rivals shoulder could prove vital and she is the Irish interest for DR.
Finally DR put up Dodging Bullets in the Sholer against Uxizandre, saying first time out could be the time to catch him.

Finally for me on Sunday. Oscarteea really impressed me on his hurdling debut at Ffos Las this season where he scored easily and he could go well in the 1.35, the Supreme Novices Hurdle trial. Commissioned could be top class but I prefer Oscarteea especially if the ground is testing.
In the 2.10, the Arkle Trial, if Urban Hymn runs well on Friday then Duke of Navan will be of even more interest here. However Vibrato Valtat made a huge impression of his Fencing debut at Warwick earlier this season, beating Thomas Crapper with ease and having Grumeti, one with fencing experience, a way back in the field. He did that so easily you have to fancy more is to come here and I take him to win the Arkle trial, although as I mention a big win for Urban Hymn on Friday may lead me to reconsider!
I'm on Goodwood Mirage for the Greatwood, DR convinced me! And lastly I'll put up Dodging Bullets, a real early season horse, for the Sholer Chase. His record fresh is very good (211 first time out) and has some good fencing experience from last year which can help him overcome his rivals here.

Saturday Update; Oscartea no longer goes in the 1.35 so I'm a bit taken by the Govaness, a smart bumper type who receives weight off the field here. She has won at the track before and hopefully her jumping will come on for her hurdling debut, if so she has a serious engine and could be a bit of value at 10/1. I'm sticking with Duke of Navan in the Arkle trial as he will love the ground, is already proven in a battle over fences (something I worry about with the Nicholls shortie) and Urban Hymn ran well on Friday, just beaten by 2 smart horses. Dodging Bullets is the selection in the Sholer chase with his record early season and fresh, Sam and Paul are going well with a double today and he can give them another winner tomorrow. Not swaying from Goodwood Mirage in the Greatwood. Finally Little King Robin can provide a bit of value in the feature race over in Ireland. Given I think the Fly and Jezki will be watching each other like hawks there is a chance this admirable mare could get a big lead out in from, from which position you could trade out your bet or sit back and wait and see if the big guns can reel her in. I do hope the Fly wins, purely from an emotional POV, but this little mare is the bet in the race for me.


And that was it for the Cheltenham preview from the guys! No doubt I've missed a bit but it really was a great and information packed preview, I can't recommend going to one of these events enough if you get a chance. We broke for an interval after this, before coming back for the season preview as  whole, but more of that on a later blog. I just wanted to get the Cheltenham Preview out there before the weekend as it won't be much good after, and once again thanks to the London Racing Club for a top evening!

Let me quickly summarise what I took out of this most of all though; Our Father should run a blinder first time up, Vaniteux could produce something VERY special on Sunday but DR did twist my arm around about Goodwood Mirage as some value and nothing was said to put me off Buywise in the Paddy Power.

If you have any Cheltenham thoughts please share away!

Sunday, 9 November 2014

Stonegate impresses at Sandown Park and a few more Sandown Stories

It's been another fun weekend for National Hunt fans, and with the November Handicap being run up at Doncaster we really are clear of the flat and can plough on full stream ahead with the Jumps game, after all the big Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham is only a few days away now! This weekend was a bit lower key that the previous weekend however we still saw some good action, for example former Champion Hurdler Rock on Ruby was out at Wincanton and we had some cracking stuff over in Ireland on Sunday with a beautiful display of jumping shown by Gilgamboa in the beginner chase probably the highlight. However I'm going to fully focus on the action from Sandown Park for this week's blog mainly because I made the trip to the lovely Esher circuit and had a top time of it (not on the betting front sadly!)
Runners going past the winning post on a lap of Sandown Park

The going was pretty testing at Sandown, and combined with the stiff uphill finish that the track has made for pretty tough conditions for the horses and riders alike; the conditions that the concluding bumper were run in were nothing short of atrocious with rain lashing down and the course almost in darkness! However the performance of Stonegate in the closing contest was one of the shining lights on the day, a really impressive debut from Gary Moore's brother to Megastar, but more on that later.

The card started with a 12 race maiden finally getting off the mark, with Little Boy Boru fairly storming home under Micheal Nolan for trainer Suzy Smith. Nolan is a great jockey to have on board in these conditional jockey events as he is an experienced pilot now and is certainly a great help to his horse.

Next up was a 3 runner Novices Chase with the market headed by Paul Nicholls Irish Saint, impressive over hurdles last season and now trying his hand at the chasing game. His rivals in this field, Chris Pea Green and Gone too Far, didn't have the class of Irish Saint over hurdles but did have the benefit of prior chasing experience so the question was whether that experience would prove a leveller or not. Well not in the case of Gone too Far who fell at the first, but Chris Pea Green did briefly look like having the odds on favourite in trouble at one point. However coming over the last Irish Saint really asserted and pulled well clear in impressive fashion, impressing in such a manner that saw him cut into 16/1 for the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. I actually thought that Irish Saint looked quite small before and backed his rivals yesterday, however as soon as they raced off I was impressed with his fencing, the way he jumped definitely belied his experience and he was really impressive over the tough Railway fences, obstacles that have claimed many an experienced jumper in the past. It will be interesting to see where he goes next and how his jumping holds up when he has a few more rivals in the field than just a solo horse for company! Chris Pea Green went down admirably in defeat and there are surely lower grade races to be won with this genuine horse.

The Moore family managed to go one better in the 3rd race on the card as Baron Alco really looked the part on his hurdling debut taking the Juvenile Hurdle by 8 lengths despite a mistake at the last. He is a really inexperienced horse, only visiting the racecourse once before yesterday, so will definitely improve a tonne for this run.

The 4th race on the card had me interested in two horses; Loose Chips and Bally Legend. Although neither could finish in the frame yesterday as Sound Investment provided Paul Nicholls with his 2nd winner on the card, I'be still be keen on both going into the future especially as the handicapped should relent a bit on the pair. I heard Charlie Longsdon, trainer of Loose Chips, discuss how he hoped that his charge would be dropped to a mark of 135 to allow him to contest slightly lower grade handicaps. It was thought that the trip was a bit too sharp and the opposition a bit too hot meaning Loose Chips was always going a bit to far. Back up in trip next time out he is of interest, even more so if he can get lowered to a mark of 135. Similarly Bally Legend was never happy at this lesser trip and he really needs at least 3 miles now. However he is a wonderfully genuine and game horse and is another to note next time out off a lower mark and back up in trip. Two for the tracker possibly from this contest.
Horses coming into the un-saddling enclosure.

I'd also take The Brok Again into my tracker after his 3rd place finis in the 5th race; He looked a beautiful specimen in the paddock before the race and in going down to Exitas, a horse bringing up the hat-trick, definitely did himself no disgrace on his British debut. Exitas has really gone on an impressive roll early season for Phil Middleton and is now proven on good and soft ground leaving his trainer with a few options, mark dependant, over where he goes next. However The Brok Again, with much improvement expected with this experience under his belt, is the one to take from the race for me.

I was gutted in the 3.40 as one of my strongest fancies on the card, Lookslikerainted ran a stinker and was pulled up long before the race got going as a contest. He jumped so well last time out in victory that I was certain he would love the test of Sandown, however his technique absolutely went to pot and never looked like being competitive over the 3 mile contest eventually won in impressive manner by Le Reve, a 21 length winner for Lucy Wadham and Dougie Costello. Heavily Punted favourite Loch Ba also disappointed massively, joining my fancy in being pulled up but actually running an even worse race! The going was getting really testing by this point, conditions Le Reve absolutely loves and he certainly made hay yesterday.

It was all down to the lucky last for me now as without doubt my biggest fancy Stonegate ran here. I heard Gary Moore give this one a real positive mention in a stable tour of his yard earlier this week; a full brother to the very smart Megastar running in the bumper won by said brother 5 years ago; surely Moore had a smart one on his hands here. I didn't back the horse despite his early prices of 5/1 being available, and was regretting this once the opening show went up. 2/1 was the general price available and there had definitely been a course whisper or two for Stonegate all afternoon but I took the price all the same, I didn't have much choice now! The runners went out in absolutely atrocious conditions for this one, driving rain and near darkness welcomed them down at the start line, however Stonegate made light of the conditions and absolutely bolted up, easy as you like, a really impressive winner.

Conditions before the closing bumper, could have done with a floodlight or two!
Trainer Gary Moore has said that he may keep Stonegate for the flat or run him in another bumper as despite the impressive nature of his victory yesterday he is still a baby (despite his size...this horse is MASSIVE!!!) and has plenty of time on his side. I'm sure we will be hearing plenty more of this talented performer in the future.

That's it from Sandown and from this blog though folks but fear not; We've got a belting week to look forward too over jumps with the Paddy Power meeting coming up next weekend at Cheltenham. Before that Champagne Fever and Sizing Europe are set to clash at Clonmel next Thursday and Shutthefrontdoor makes his reappearance at Carlisle tomorrow. No doubt about it the jumps season is really getting going and these are exiting times for all jumps fans!

Thanks for reading!

AB

Sunday, 2 November 2014

Living for the weekend-Hobbs certainly is!

We're all familiar with the term 'Living for the weekend'; after slogging away all week at work those 2 days break from the routine that always go way too quickly for our liking. Well another man who is certainly living for the weekend is trainer Philip Hobbs after Menorah helped him take the feature race on the Saturday jumps cards in England, backing up the win of Wishful Thinking last weekend. Menorah won the Charlie Hall Chase up at Wetherby in authoritative fashion, beating the staying on Taquin Du Seuil by 4 lengths, the flatter track probably playing more into the winner's hands than the runner up. Any Ante-Post backers of Taquin for the Cheltenham Gold Cup should not be too dispirited by this defeat, the horse made it look like he would stay the Gold Cup trip and the undulating nature of the Cheltenham track, one he is proven over, may bring out the best in him come March. However today Menorah was more suited by conditions and he could now head to the King George at Kempton over Christmas as that is run over a similar flat track to the one he was so impressive over this weekend and he would certainly deserve a place towards the head of the market for the Boxing Day Chase. Silviniaco Conti was deeply unimpressive,  the way he was ridden initially made it seen like Nicholls thought he was plenty fit enough but the way he folded tamely was quite concerning. It could be that Conti was another of the Nicholls horses who quite obviously need their first run, however Conti had actually been taken for a racecourse gallop at Chepstow the week before (according to Vanessa Ryle of ATR) so this really should not have been the case. It'll be interesting to see if he turns up at Haydock for the Betfair Chase on the back of this, I'd not be keen on taking a short price on him for that race. Even though I voiced concerns over the price of Conti in my ante post piece he still was the best horse on figures in the Charlie Hall field and should have run much better than he did, 100% fit or not. My ante-post fancy Medermit so narrowly failed to get me a return on my advised e/w bet with 3 places still on offer earlier in the week as he was denied 3rd place by just half a length...gutting!
Menorah takes the feature at Wetherby, Medermit staying on but not enough to land my ante-post bet sadly

Elswehere on the card we had the re-appearance of At Fishers Cross in the 3 runner 3m 1f Grade 2 hurdle and he disappointed massively, trailing in last of the field and beaten over 8 lengths by the winner Cole Harden. After the race jockey AP McCoy said he thought AFC needs a fence now to show his best form and connections will be mulling over wether to take that route or not. I would be inclined to go for it, after all they do have the current World Hurdle Champion amongst their ranks! McCoy had a much better time of it on the hugely impressive Aurore D'Estruval, John Quinn's mare, as she won the listed Mares hurdle at an absolute canter. She looks certain to hold high rank in the Mares races this season, however you feel the only way that she can taste glory at Cheltenham in that race is if Annie Power goes for loftier targets. Hardly likely given the way Mullins used to farm the race with Quevega year in year out.

Whilst the feature race of the day may have been up at Wetherby we had an absolute feast of action elsewhere around the country with a cracking card down at Ascot. Ulck Du Lin was one Paul Nicholls inmate who certainly wasn't in need of the run as he took advantage of a tumbling handicap mark to hose up in the Bryne Group Handicap Chase. Claret Cloak was a very gallant 2nd but understandably struggled to give the winner a whopping 20lbs when the young jockey Sean Bowen's 7 lbs claim was accounted for. That 7 lbs is an absolute steal and with Sean's obvious talent I don't think he will be long in reducing that weight concession, definitely one to look out for in the saddle and it will be interesting to see if Nicholls tries to save his claim for these valuable handicap races.
Sean Bowen; a jockey to look out for
Dan Skelton carried on his great start to the season in taking the United House Gold Cup Handicap with What a Warrior, again ridden by brother Harry who still hasn't started getting the outside rides he no doubt deserves yet...maybe he needs a new agent!

Finally we must travel over the Irish Sea and onto Down Royal as they staged an absolute corker of a card, with the JNWine Champion Chase the highlight of the action. This has produced a few Gold Cup winners in it's time, notably the great Katuo Star, and could this year's winner Road to Riches be set to follow in Kauto's hoof prints? He's a 20/1 shot for Cheltenham Gold Cup glory on the back if this impressive all the way victory and I really don't think there is anything overly special amongst the current bunch of staying chasers; definitely a market where an improving horse could come through and make a huge impression in this year's renewal. He's apparently off to the Lexus next which could give us a better guide, but I really think a Championship race headed by Holywell (much to prove stepping up from Handicaps), Cue Card (does he stay?), Bobs Worth (Disappointing last year) and Silviniaco Conti (Does he get the trip around Cheltenham) is well worth targeting with a rapidly improving chaser like Road to Riches. Just don't tell the horse of his trainer's record at Prestbury Park!
Road to Riches followed up his Galway Plate success
Gigginstown had a cracking double on the Down Royal card as Don Cossack took the other big race on the card in the famous maroon silks. Bryan Cooper was back in big race winning form on top of Don Cossack and the Don finally looks like he could be starting to fulfil his huge and undoubted potential. Victory in the Irish Whiskey Chase opens up targets such as the King George and the Lexus, and if the Don can go on to be the horse so many people believe he could be then you would be a brace man to lay a price on victory in either of those two races.

I could go on for ages covering all the action this weekend, after all I haven't even touched on Sunday ! Here we saw Moscow Mannon impressively defeat Felix Yonger, the runner up having to give 9 lbs to his victor so certainly not disgracing himself. De Bromhead was hugely positive post race when talking of Moscow Mannon however, claiming that no horse in his yard can keep with him at home, so this career over Fences could well prove to be a fruitful one.   A horse I'm keen on, albeit with a lower profile, Un Ace got the first victory of his chasing career at Huntingdon, and Holywell, apparently a Gold Cup contender, made his re-appearance at Carlisle going down to Many Clouds and Eduard. McCoy said he wasn't disappointed with the performance but I will be a shocked and poorer man if Holywell is good enough to win a Gold Cup! It really has been a jam packed weekend and the National Hunt season hasn't even properly started for some yet! With less than 2 weeks to go until the Showcase meeting at Cheltenham Park though we are definitely going up a gear or two and we just look forward to the next weekend with glee at the moment....just like Philip Hobbs!

Thanks again for reading.

AB



Wednesday, 29 October 2014

Ante Post Focus - Charlie Hall Chase

This weekend see's the first big race of the National Hunt season, the Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby Racecourse, the lovely Yorkshire venue just off the A1. The ground looks like being decent jumping ground, not quite the bog last year's winner Harry Topper would want but not quick enough to scare any of the big guns away. The market is headed by Paul Nicholl's Silviniaco Conti at around about 5/4, miles too short for me given the stable form. Some of the stable seem to massively need the run whereas some of them look fit as a fiddle first-time up, and while the trainer has said his charge is plenty fit enough for this weekend I'm loath to take such a short price given my concerns about the yard, and the fact that this is certainly a prep run for the Betfair Haydock Chase in 3 weeks time. I'm definitely swerving the favourite here.

Wednesday saw trainer Mouse Morris declare his horse, First Lieutenant, for the big race at Down Royal at the weekend, meaning he would not be travelling over the Irish Sea to Wetherby and thus depriving the race of it's 2nd favourite in the market. This move saw Taquin Du Seuil shorten into around 4/1, and with race fitness on his side after his re-appearance run at Newton Abbot plus the fact he receives 5lbs from the favourite many people will see this as a good bet. Indeed if Taquin is to develop into the Gold Cup horse the stable hope he can be he should be going very close this weekend. I don't see the step up in trip being an issue, certainly last year he looked like appreciating a trip, and his jumping should stand him in good stead here. The champion jockey AP McCoy is back in the saddle on Saturday and if Taquin had turned up at Wetherby without his prep run at Newton Abbot he would probably be a deal shorter after his impressive Cheltenham success the time before. Instead he is around the 4/1 mark, rather than the 5/2 he would probably be otherwise, and you are getting a horse with a prep race on his side...ideal! Jonjo's charge certainly appeals more than Silviniaco Conti as an outright win bet in the Charlie Hall.

However I've got myself an e/w bet that I am most keen on for this race, and that's in the shape of 10/1 shot Medermit from the Alan King stable. King has his yard in flying form and I'm really keen on his admirable 10 year old especially given Medermit's record fresh; 2 out of his last 3 first time out appearances have resulted in victory. Furthermore we know this grey gelding gets the 25 furlong trip he will face on Saturday well after he rounded off last season with a commendable 4th in the Punchestown Gold Cup, something that isn't guaranteed for Taquin at a much shorter price. Finally Medermit gets 5lbs from Taquin, 6 from Double Ross and 10 from the likes of Conti and Menorah! At 10/1 I think medermit rates as a knocking e/w bet Ante-Post with 3 places on offer, especially given the likelihood of the field reducing in numbers come raceday which could lead to only 2 places on offer.



Advice

Medermit e/w 10/1


Sunday, 26 October 2014

It's the start of british jumps time!

Well this Sunday marked the end of the Irish flat racing season, the clocks going back and the last group 1 race of the British flat racing season. Welcome back national hunt racing really! Aintree held their first meeting of the season and with decent cards coming at chepstow and wincanton  as well, as fans of the jumping scene we were not short of entertainment and I certainly enjoyed it. Perhaps a lot of readers will disagree with me but I must admit I was actually more entertained by the midweek action this week, seeing a few familiar hurdles go over fences like Deputy Dan, Far West and Puffin Billy, than the weekend action but as the weeks go by that is sure to change. From a punting point of view the victory of Spirit of Shankly was most welcome; I flagged the horse up in my Friday blog as my horse for the weekend and he did not disappoint me. However end of the aftertiming for me; to be fair I haven't my more winners to talk of!
Its a case of cheers to Charlie for my punting high point this weekend

       Hawk high, last year's Fred Winter winner, was a big drifter before the opening race but went on to take the opener on the card and should be interesting to follow for the year. However onto the main event....Wishful Thinking, who obviously had a breathing operation or two which we learned of AFTER the race, routed the field in the feature race on the Aintree card, the Money's Garden Old Roan Chase. Hobbs has his yard in fine fettle and this admirable 11 year old welcomed the good around on offer at the weekend, with the favourite Uxizandre back in 4th spot but sure to come on for the race and possibly the one to take out of the race with the winner sure to be clobbered by the handicapper for this win. At 11 years of age further improvements man not be that easy to find for Wishful Thinking and going up 10lbs won't make life easy for him. Bold Sir Brian trailer home in 9th but Lucinda Russell hadn't been going amazingly at the moment and BSB will surely come on for his first run in an absolute ago. When the stable are going a bit better I'll be looking for BSB to post a better performance on the back of his season pipeopener; he was once thought of as a Gold Cup horse so if he retains some of his old zest could surprise a lot of people next time up. Finally on this race Module looks set to go back down in trip and onto Cheltenham and its undulations for his next assignment after disappointing over this extended trip. Tom George said they were going a bit too quick for him on this flatter track so the stiffer Cheltenham course will suit his charge more and trainer was not too despondent post race.
The old boy done good

Aintree also had a nice veteran's race at 3:40 where pigeon island was smashed in the market all day long in the build-up to this one, only to get beat by a neck in a tight finish with Lie Forrit, from the aforementioned Lucinda Russell yard! Burton Port ran yet another stinker and I actually may have to resign myself to the fact this old warrior isn't chucked in off this ever declining mark sooner or later and is just past it!

One horse who is certainly not past it however was seen at Chepstow, where Blaklion really caught the attention when keeping up his 100% record for Nigel Twiston-Davies in the Persion War Novices Hurdle. After not starting at Cheltenham a week back this was much more like it from the 5 year old as he beat some decent opposition to win this Grade 2. I'm not sure what plans are for Blaklion from now but the way he beat Vincente and The Pirates Queen was really very impressive, definitely one to keep an eye on over these fort of trips this season. Sadly the really highly touted Son Du Berlais was fatally injured in behind, quite a loss to Nicky Henderson and connections and considerations are with them.
In the other features on the Chepstow card Regal Encore ran a stinker after being sent off as favourite in the Silver Trophy eventually won by Shelford from the red hot Skelton yard, what a fantastic double act Dan and Harry are! I'm actually surprised all of Harry's winners this season have been for brother Dan as he is proving himself a really useful jockey, however it must only be a matter of time before he starts to pick up a lot more outside rides as his talent in the saddle cannot really be questioned. In the last 14 days he has only had one ride for anyone bar his brother, on a 20/1 shot trainer by John Ferguson,  and it is a bit of a mystery to me why this is so. Am I missing something readers?
A potent combination


What else did we see over sticks this weekend? Well Sunday brought a rare shocker from McCoy in the saddle upon champagne present in the opener at Aintree. He really should have been notching up another winner on this one judging from his confidence in the saddle, however somehow Chicoria, an unfancied 33/1 shot, beat him too the winning post denying the champion jockey victory as he chases 300 winners for the season. As if his recent absence from the plate wasn't enough of a dent in these hopes; AP's cat will have had a real kicking tonight! Nicholls and Curtis both had doubles on the Sunday cards, Nicholls especially will be well welcoming this return to form after a patchy recent few weeks. He has said in a recent Betfair column that his stable are about a month behind so these early season winners, will in monetary terms not that valuable , in terms of stable confidence could prove vital in the coming weeks especially with Wetherby coming next weekend. Stable star Silviniaco Conti is set to contest the Charlie Hall and Rocky Creek (their big Grand National hope) is also set for a weekend appearance at Down Royal; it could be a great springboard for the yard going into the season proper.

Speaking of next weekend Wetherby is definitely shaping up to beat this weekend for me in the excitement stakes. Rumours of an appearance for World Hurdle Winner More of That were fuelled by McCoy's weekend comments, saying it wasn't an impossibility which would be really exciting for any jumps fan. Fingal Bay could start out over hurdles as he bids to take the Hennessy for Philip Hobbs as well but the Charlie Hall really could be an absolute cracker and blow everything else away. As mentioned Silviniaco Conti is a possible runner, as are First Lieutenant, Taquin Du Seuil, The Giant Bolster and Dynaste...wow! Definitely something to get you through the first week of leaving work every day in the darkness!

Once again thanks for reading and any comments much appreciated.

Alex