The Hennessy
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| Double winner Denman on his way to his first Hennessy victory (Photo: Racing Post) |
DR began with his views on Irish fancy Djakadam, who he thought was a bright light for the season ahead but not for DR in this race due to the poor record of 5 year olds in the race. DR told us how keen Ruby Walsh was on this one for the season ahead though so definitely worth following in races, possibly just not this one. He is an old fashioned chaser, and certainly his current mark of 147 is workable. However it may be that he is outstayed late on by more furnished horses, but DR certainly can envisage him running well for a long way. DO NOT FORGET THIS ONE for the season ahead though!
He pointed out the great record of the front 4 in the market traditionally in this race, so warned the audience not to try and be too clever here, look for the 2nd season chasers and was siding with Smad Place. DR thought he would improve for the trip. Potentially look out for Lyreen Legend to front the Irish challenge, especially if the ground comes up soft. If it is bottomless then gives Harry Topper a chance.
JID thought that Djakadam was a deserved fav for the race but Many Clouds off a mark of 151 was interesting. Fingal Bay also, with the Hobbs yard flying, was very exciting over fences after his exploits over hurdles last season. Smad Place, at 10/1, was interesting but the market, in JID's opinion, had this spot on at the moment with the top 4 in the market deservedly there. He voiced concerns over Rocky Creek's return given his price of 12/1, however SL told the audience Sam TD was actually very sweet on Rocky's comeback run.
NW Also a Rocky Creek fan, thinks he has had a breathing tweak and we all know just what improvement they can bring about! He wasn't convinced over Smad Place's staying ability over this trip and Many Clouds was the one for NW at the price. Oliver Sherwood doesn;t get enough credit for his excellent training efforts in NW's opinion, Many Clouds beat the fav for this years Gold Cup first time out, has done it in big fields, ran a cracker first time out at Ascot last year and ticks all the boxes for NW. Oliver Sherwood has won this race before and in Many Clouds NW thinks he could repeat the trick in 2014.
King George
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| Kauto Star brought the roof down at Kempton in 2011 with a 5th King George win (Photo:Steve Parsons) |
JID wanted Champagne Fever over for the race, and this was before he smashed the field to pieces in the Clonmel Oil Chase the following day. He pointed out Kempton clearly suits Captain Chris, who will be aimed at this race, and 25.1 was a cracking bet at the prices. Silviniaco Conti was the one for him at the head of the market.
NW liked Dynaste for the race, he was shocked at his Aintree loss and pointed out the horses record fresh. He dismissed Al Ferof when asked of his chance by SL. However he does love Don Cossack, however DR thought the Don was a Grade 2/3 horse at best and told us to leave him to mop up at Thurles and the like. Wanted to see how Simonsig got on in the Peterborough Chase before getting involved at 5/1
DR thought Cue Card did stay and was a major fancy if the race to be run on a decent surface. He couldn't believe Silviniaco Conti didn't win last year, confirmed this was the target for Champagne Fever and also thought 25/1 on Captain Chris was a massive price. Another Irish horse Road to Riches still needs to prove his worth in the eyes of DR but was absolutely foot perfect first time out. Simonsig was exciting but maybe not at this trip.
Christmas Hurdle/Champion Hurdle
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| There wouldn't be a dry eye in the house if The Fly could win at Cheltenham in 2015 (Photo:Michael Steele) |
JID was not a fan of The New One as he didn't think the horse likes Kempton, always loves smashing the final flight to bits!
DR thought Ireland was more healthy that England in this division but Faugheen was the wrong fav given that Jezki was the prove horse; a Champion Hurdler us against Faugheen, a 3 mile winner on soft ground-he has a lot to prove and not got the solid form, certainly has the Mullins hype though! He said Faugheen would be campaigned softly, mopping up around 2/9 price and wouldn't really be able to justifiably be shortened in the market. Jezki the value call for Declan. Put up a horse not even priced up yet in Renetti, 2nd to the Tulle Tank in the Royal Bond, niggly injuries held this one back but you could get on at huge prices and could be worth a quid.
NW was keen on TNO to reverse Cheltenham form with Jezki, however for the Christmas Hurdle didn't think TBO was in love with Kempton either. Could see a very uncompetitive event. Reveled that in the Champion Hurdle last season TNO got a kick in the belly from Our Conor when OC fatally fell, from then on STD was very cautions with TNO until he knew he had recovered from the kick, from which point he absolutely motored home (From the authors POV does this mean TNO didn't tire himself getting involved in the bursts at the front of the race, saved himself and then finished strongly?) but NW would definitely be with TNo in the Champion this season.
Champion Chase
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| Just how fantastic would it be to get Sprinter Sacre back to his glorious best (Photo:Getty Images) |
Main theme was the doubts over the front 2 in the market
DR told the audience that not only was the old Sprinter Sacre still not showing yet but Sire De Grugy spent most of last season with lameness here and there and was hard to keep niggle free. He wouldn't be surprised to see SS retired this season! Champagne Fever at 16/1 with a firm that are Non Runner Free Bet was the advice given by DR, who put up Bright New Dawn as a dark horse for this one. Wouldn't settle over the RSA chase distance but down in trip could see him going really well if allowed to bowl on out in front.
NW wouldn't be shocked of one of the novice chasers like Vautor or Josses Hill were to pitch up in the Queen Mum given the similarities between the fierce Arkle Chase and the Championship equivalent. Put up the Henry De Bromhead trained Moscow Mannan, 2nd behind Gods Own with hot horses in behind last season and a good winner on his seasonal debut this season.
JID could also see an Arkle horse being tempted into this race, liked Hidden Cyclone who gave a stone to Johns Spirit in last seasons PP GC and ran a blinder to finish 3ed. His 2nd to Dynaste in the Ryanair is good form.
Gold Cup
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| The Tank; My favourite Gold Cup winner of recent times |
SL introduced this as a wide open renewal, how often do you see 10/1 the field about a GC winner in November!?!?
NW thought this was a murky market and hadn't seen anything to convince him yet this season. The race was messy last season, putting up the fact Lyreen Legend was in there pitching a few out! Boston Bob was the one for him at a big price at this stage; good ground will suit and he could finally be fulfilling his jumping potential this season but admitted his Cheltenham form was a concern.
DR told us to take no notice of the Holywell's comeback, he is a spring horse and only races properly when the magic blinkers are on. Irish hope Sire Des Champs was a worry with his tendon injury, DR wouldn't touch until he was convinced of his wellbeing. Morning Assembly needs it soft but is a horse he does like as he jumps and stays well so with conditions not one to rule out. Look to the Lexus race over Christmas to see if the improvement seen in Shutthefrontdoor (breathing operation) will be enough to make him a potential winner of this one.
JID reported money for STFD, 33/1 into 20/1 in recent days, however reported a good spread of money across the market reflecting the open nature of the race this year. All horses would beat each other throughout the season and this was a very hard race to punt ante-post for Jon.
World Hurlde
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| The World Hurdle will forever be associated with the great 5 time winner Big Bucks (Photo:Tom Jenkins, the Guardian) |
NW said that we had a very worthy winner of this race in 2014 in More of That and saw no reason why the mare Annie Power would reverse the form. Everything was right about More of That as a potential winner this season except the price. At a more attractive price Briar Hill, who beat Very Wood and Apache Jack giving them weight last season, had top form and has the pace for a top race given his Champion Bumper win. 10/1 was the value in the market.
DR was also a huge fan of Briar Hill, a lazy sort who only ever does what he needs to. Definitely does not lack pace but the Ryanair could be his perfect trip. 5/2 was a joke of a price on MoT given the dangerous Beat That in the market - DR says Geraghty is in love with this one and BT has improved physically over the summer)
JID told us MoT deserved to be fav, agreed 5/2 was too short for an ante-post bet at this stage of the season. Again another Briar Hill supporter, whom he described as an absolute machine! Perfect animal for the World Hurdle in his opinion. In a fairly weak division 10/1 was a huge price for JID.
Novice Hurdle Division
DR from an Irish POV the early signs were that (surprise surprise) Willie Mullins had a very strong hand in this division. Tell Us More (a Patrick Mullins Horse to Follow) was in the Faugheen bracket when it comes to hype. His bumper win by 24 lengths was very special and one to keep on side. Added Shanes Hill, Black Hercules, Royal Caviar and Milsean as horses from the stable to watch. Allex Colombieres was by all accounts the WM Supreme horse but already a 10/1 shot for this race, already a huge loser for Hills according to JID.
NW said Tell Us More carried a hell of a lot of confidence behind him. Don't touch Forgotten Rules he warns, he is too good to go jumping and will stick to the flat, too much value to lose. Vigil was very interesting for Dermot Weld, likes cut in the ground and will be targeted at Leopardstown around Christmas. West Wizard, whos form behind Sergeant Reckless now looks very good, was a Supreme potential but Hendo has a shocking record in the race, last won it in 1992 (NW did post the question of when Hendo last won the race to the audience but no-one got it!) DR asked did WW have the toe for the Supreme, he had stamina in his pedigree over steed for DR.
JID likes Jollyallan from the Harry Fry yard. In 3 starts last season he was 6th in a Punchestown bumper and win his Novice hurdle this season despite greenness and not looking the finished article by any stretch of the imagination. This is what made him really exciting for JID though and thinks there is loads more to come from this one.. Also put up recent Ffos Las loser Fletchers Flyer, who should really have won at the Welsh venue.
Novice Chase Division
DR had his number 1 dark horse in this division in Sizing Tennessee, the Alan Potts horse who won a maiden hurdle at Navan last season before being moved from Mullins to HDH. ST will win races and was DR horse to follow.
When the mud is flying look out for Cloudy Copper, was sick last year but had a great summer and will win races for Jonjo O'Neil, albeit around the Grade 3 level.
JID thought this was a really exciting division, Clondaw Court, an unbeaten horse, 27 length winner of a bumper, P2P winner and a winner twice already over hurdles was one for Jon. Thought Josses Hill was a potential World Class Chaser.
Channon had a couple in Knock House who jumped for fun on his debut and Paradise Valley, who we can expect a lot more from.
Nicky Richards has Eduard for older chasers and Blakemount for the staying Novice chases.
NW also loved Knock House, said Channon's link with hen Knight was helping hugely. Kock House respects his fences but enjoys them and could see him not quite being out of the top bracket but certainly a good handicapper.
Thomas Crapper also was one for good handicaps for Robin Oliver, play this one's cards right, don't over pitch him and he could well turn up off a good mark in the Martin Pipe race back at Cheltenham in March (liked his Cheltenham form already in the book)
Elsewhere
| Who doesn't love a good dark horse! |
DR had Free Expression as a bumper horse from the P2P field for Gordon Elliott.
The Tullow Tank will be making his mark this season
Aaron hill for Jessie Harrington was on a good mark given good ground.
Top Notch was a horse that Barry Geraghty LOVES (DR from ATR, BG blogs for the firm)
Don Poli, every inch a chaser, would be sent chasing. Look at how he dotted up in the Martin Pipe last season for this one's potential.
It was a worry for DR that Josses Hill was yet to jump a fence this season.
Also pointed out the poor strike rate of Willie Mullins over fences at Cheltenham as something to be wary of.
Horse called Different Gravy had come from the pointing scene in Ireland and was one to follow.
SL put up Le Mercury as a 4 year old, although unfortunately no longer a novice but one the yard were dead keen on.
Kalkir was a horse already smashed into in the Triumph Hurdle market
NW put up Wichwoods Brook (this was greeted by approval from one member of the audience) who has had a good summer and improved a lot for Evan Williams. The trainer was very impressed with this one and on soft ground will mark his mark.
Carols Destiny also a nice horse
For Hunter Chases he told us that Quinz had recently gone to into the care of Alan Hill and given his form over fences could be a real lively one in this division.
And breathe! That was it for the evening from the panel, my hand was in pain as I'd be busy trying to jot down all the gems of info given out but apologies to the chaps if I missed anything. Anyway there is plenty there for the horse tracker! Once again I'd just like to thank the panel of Sam Lawire, Jon Ivan-Duke, Declan Rix and Nick Watts for their time both that evening and on twitter in the aftermath of the event, and obvious thanks to the London Racing Club for putting on the even. I urge you to attend one of these events if you get the opportunity.
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