Cheltenham is here, preview with the help of the LRC

Cheltenham with the London Racing Club

Cheltenham's first big meeting of the year, I mean really big, is within touching distance now and I'm definitely not alone in being one hugely excited National Hunt fan! This excitement was only fuelled further by the fantastic preview night put on by the London Racing Club, where they looked ahead to Cheltenham and the season as a whole with a panel chaired by Sam Lawrie and featuring Nick Watts, Declan Rix and John Ivan-Duke. It was a 2 1/2 hour event jam packed with information and thoughts from the panel and a top, top evening. So I thought I'd blog about the experience, splitting into two parts. The first here; Cheltenham thoughts for the comping weekend from the panel and myself before a blog at a later date with some of the nuggets the panel shared for the season ahead.

Cheltenham Friday

Well lets start with the 1.50, glossing over the amature handicap that kicks off proceedings, and here NW was mad keen on the chances of Next Sensation. He reasoned that a mark of 145 was a great mark, his course form would stand him in good stead and he has also had the benefit of a prep run at Ascot to get him spot on for this assignment. There were no disagreements from the panel and a price of 12/1 looks very fair with this 2 mile trip sure to suit. Obviously in a huge 20 runner handicap nothing is a good thing but if you do back Next Sensation with his run style you will definitely get some excitement along the way!

We moved swiftly onto the 2.25, a Novice Chase Where we heard DR, the go to man for Irish Form, say that he really  was not keen on the WIllie Mullins novice chasers entered at the meeting due to the double penalties the three entered up from the WM yard would have to carry. An astute point considering they would also no doubt be short prices and one I noted keenly. DR would be looking outside the WM yard for his Novice CHasers. I was really pleased to hear both JID and NW put up Champagne West for this one; a classic chaser in the making and will also not mind the forecast conditions with form in heavy ground. For me I can't have Colour Squadron for this race at 9/4, does he really want to win? There are a lot of hot horses for the season here, Urban Hymn will love the ground and jumped well on debut, Splash of Ginge and Dell Arca have hot hurdles form from last year and Splash has already shown an aptitude for fences whilst even Bullet Street, despite his price, could show the benefit of experience over his less experienced chasing rivals. However for me, NW and JID Champagne West is the one for tomorrow and one I am hugely excited for as a Novice Chaser this season; a really hot race though.

For the 3.00 I had my alert through this evening for tracker horse Blaklion, unbeaten under rules for the Nigel Twiston-Davis yard and one who looks to have a fab attitude for racing. He has already won a race of this class when victorious last time out, has form on soft ground and Jamie Moore, who takes the mount tomorrow, is in good form in the saddle. However NW did raise the point at the preview of the headgear this horse has worn before, saying he could certainly see why he needs it, and I am a little concerned to see the hood left off tomorrow especially in the atmospherical cauldron that is Cheltenham. Look a little down the card and you see a certain Mr R Walsh riding for Jonjo O'Neil on Champagne Present, a horse NW thought would do better, along with the exciting flat recruit Parlour Games. The presence of these two, especially the Walsh mount, could ensure that Blaklion gets to a mark around 2/1 tomorrow and if that happens I'd be tempted. Much shorter though and the lack of headgear plus the two relatively unknown horses in the race would prevent me playing here, as much as I do admire Blaklion.

That was the end of the race by race previews for the Friday card from the panel, however Nick Watts did go on to flag a couple who he liked elsewhere. Firstly Cup Final, and I cannot stress how much NW fancied this one! He thought the horse, who runs in the 4.05 for the team of Geraghty/Henderson was absolutely thrown in on his mark of 125. He has good form from last season in the bag and steps into Handicap company here tomorrow, at Even money the way NW was talking you had a banker! Finally he put one up in the XC race, brave man, in the lovable old Carruthers who makes his debut in this sphere. NW would be more keen with some rain on this one's chances but thought the new discipline could bring about improvement for this classy type who has been good enough to win the Hennessy in his time.

That was all the panel mentioned on the Friday of the Cheltenham meet and we moved swiftly onto the Saturday, starting with the big one...

The Paddy Power Gold Cup

 Let me put my thoughts out there first and then tell you what the panel thought. Basically I'm with Buywise for this one. He ran an absolute belter of a race at the Festival last year, if he had jumped properly he would have won doing handstands, however because he didn't he is still on a very nice mark. The soft ground we will almost definitely have on Saturday won't pose any issues at all, and connections will surely have been schooling him repeatedly given the well known jumping concerns. Finally he won on his reappearance, over hurdles round a sharp track over a distance less than ideal...very impressive and a great pipe-opener showing him to have summered well. Buywise is definitely the one for me.
JID likes the chances of Indian Castle if it came up very heavy, thinking he may lack toe if it didn't. However thought the chances of the market principles Present View and Buywise were obvious and very real, big losers in the WIlliam Hill book.
Champion Court could be the value for JID, he was the 6/1 favourite for this race last year, dropped 6lbs since that run on his old form JID thought he could go very close and liked his price.
DR thought you could overlook the Irish Challenge, and pointed out that apparently the Henderson yard had been struggling to get Oscar Whiskey ready for this one. The two he liked were firstly Buywise, but because of his jumping he would be purely a win only bet and mentioned the good record of 7 year olds in the race as well.  Secondly he liked Persian Snow, also a runner in the Handicap at last years Cheltenham festival that Present View won, however he is much better at the weights on Saturday than Present View, Buywise and Johns Spirit. Of even more interest to DR if it rains.
NW fancied John's Spirit if it rained, while also saying Eastern Meteor off 148 could be very interesting and one to look out for outside the top of the marked.
The shocking win record of Colour Squadron was flagged up here but he no longer goes for the race, however the comments still apply as I mentioned earlier he is entered up on friday, and shockingly as a favourite!

The Rest of Saturday

The Paddy Power was the only race previewed in depth by the panel, however we did have selections in other races and I will briefly list them here.

NW In the 1.50 flagged up Our Father, but ONLY FOR SATURDAY and not the rest of the season due to his amazing record fresh and awful record any other time! The more rain the better for David Pipe's horse as well. The rest of the panel liked this one.
In the 3 mile Chase at 1.15 he flagged up Salsanito Sunrise for Philip Hobbs.


DR thought Rouge Angel was VERY interesting in the 1.50 against My Father for Mouse Morris. DR said this horse looks in rude health, showed great attitude on reappearance in a Galway race where he finished 2nd and can see him running a big race. However he did re-affirm his liking for Our Father in the same race, tricky!

JID went to the 3.00 where he put up Vieux Lion Rouge for David Pipe, who ran a shocker at the Cheltenham festival when rated very highly by John but he was keeping the faith and thought there was more to come as a 5 year old.

Personally myself for Saturday well...I'll be on Kings Palace in the 1.15; his record fresh reads win win, he was a top staying novice last season and really well fancies for the Albert Bartlett where he fell at the final flight. However he is effective on most surfaces and also I've heard he has schooled well. Pipe has won this race previously (2012) with chasing débutante Our Father so Kings Palace is the one I will be on here with Deputy Dan the biggest danger.

I'll be hoping for a quickfire Pipe double come the 1.50 as I also love Our Father, although have nothing further to add to NW's thoughts just love this one fresh (Record 1117) especially off 136 when he went off fav in the Hennessy off 147.

Friday Update; Unfortunately Our Father does not appear in the decs for tomorrow's race, so in his absence I'll be chancing Paul Nicholls horse Sam Winner here. He has bags of Cheltenham form, winning three times around here and won around this time last year when defeating the smart Le Bec. He also has a 5th place finish in the RSA Chase showing his stamina for the longer distances, and can summon a 2nd place behind SMad Place on heavy ground in his back catalogue for anyone with ground concerns. The tongue tie is applied by the master trainer for this race and I'm hoping that despite carrying top weight Sam Winner can put up a bold showing here.

Finally Bitofapuzzle for Harry fry in the mares bumper could be smart although This is a hot race. However she will love the mud and stays all day so could be coming up the hill very strongly. She has wins from a 3 mile p2p as well as form under rules, with conditions sure to favour her in hopeful of a nice price.

The rest of the card is still to be narrowed down for me, I'll probably wait until the day for that though.

Friday Update; I quite like the chances of Suzy Smiths Invicta Lake in the 3.00. Suzy has her string in cracking form and you can still get 14/1 about this last time out winner; that would definitely be shorter were Invicta Lake with a more 'fashionable' trainer. Providing conditions don't deteriorate further he could reward e/w investment with the trainer confident the Cheltenham course will suit.

That was it for the Saturday, and I almost dropped my phone trying to get a bet on Our Father quick enough after what the panel had to say! However they moved swiftly on to the Sunday and I had to get my pen and paper back out...



The Greatwood Hurdle

 Well I can sum this up in 1 word; Vaniteux. The panel put this up as their charity bet for the evening, even Sam Lawrie was giving his opinion out saying it was all about the top weight for him here. JID told punters to hold off as he couldn't see this one getting too much shorter, indeed thought some bookies would go standout bigger prices on Sunday, but did admit he would take all the beating. NW said that rain would be a bit of a negative though. DR said that Vaniteux could well outclass the field, even carrying top weight may not be enough, and while his price was about right he certainly wasn;t the value angle. Basically all the panel thought the top weight Henderson horse was the most likely winner by some way, hence the charity bet being placed on this one; all £200 of it as well!
Looking away fro the top weight JID liked Pine Creek at the price; a horse who goes well fresh, won first time out last year and was a huge price at 20/1. He also thought Exitas, although carrying a penalty for his Sandown win, could go well and be a bigger price than his form deserved because of his slightly unfashionable trainer. Still 7/1 a bit short with the penalty. NW was also keen on Exitas, however would be more keen on Baradari for the Williams yard if it turned really heavy. He said the Fred Winter 5th was good form but he really must have it heavy as otherwise won't have the toe for this one. Finally for NW Regal Encore off a mark of 130 must be of some interest given that one of the horses that beat him last season is now rated in the 150's (Seeyouatmidnight). However he must start to put this potential into action on the track and the Greatwood was really time to deliver, still 14.1 was a tempting price for NW.
SL thought Baltimore Rock would have been more popular with the punters.
DR agreed with NW on Baradari, an eyecatcher rattling home up the hill in the Fred Winter on spring ground that wouldn't have suited massively. He will come on for his comeback and the softer ground on Saturday could make him a value bet. Of the Mullin's 2 in the race DR was put off Daneking by the shocking record of front-running sorts in this race, and Daneking wasn't amazingly handicapped either. Clondow Warrior could lack experience for a test of this nature. The main selection for Declan in the Greatwood was Goodwood mirage, and he put forward a very convincing argument for O'Neil's charge here; Gelded over the summer this operation was always going to help GM jump a bit better, DR said he would be slightly more comfortable over his hurdles with less dangling away! He was impressed with his comeback victory at Wetherby, where despite showing keenness and getting no cover at all he jumped in a far more impressive manner and won well. Add that the the fact not many of Jonjo's win first time up and there is definitely improvement to come from that first run. DR thought the gelding operation could really help this expensive recruit  fulfil his potential, 12/1 was a good price but as mentioned Vaniteux could absolutely outclass the field.

The Rest of Sunday

NW liked Uxizandre in the Sholer Chase over 2 miles, thought it was a good shout by Alan King with the absence of Sire De Grugy to see if Uxizandre had the speed for 2 miles. He has had a run to put in straight at Aintree earlier in the season and could go well.

DR said Darling Carlotta was the only Irish interest and she goes for WIllie Mullins in the closing bumper on the card. Bottom weight, carrying 10 stone 7lbs compared to 11 stone that her rivals shoulder could prove vital and she is the Irish interest for DR.
Finally DR put up Dodging Bullets in the Sholer against Uxizandre, saying first time out could be the time to catch him.

Finally for me on Sunday. Oscarteea really impressed me on his hurdling debut at Ffos Las this season where he scored easily and he could go well in the 1.35, the Supreme Novices Hurdle trial. Commissioned could be top class but I prefer Oscarteea especially if the ground is testing.
In the 2.10, the Arkle Trial, if Urban Hymn runs well on Friday then Duke of Navan will be of even more interest here. However Vibrato Valtat made a huge impression of his Fencing debut at Warwick earlier this season, beating Thomas Crapper with ease and having Grumeti, one with fencing experience, a way back in the field. He did that so easily you have to fancy more is to come here and I take him to win the Arkle trial, although as I mention a big win for Urban Hymn on Friday may lead me to reconsider!
I'm on Goodwood Mirage for the Greatwood, DR convinced me! And lastly I'll put up Dodging Bullets, a real early season horse, for the Sholer Chase. His record fresh is very good (211 first time out) and has some good fencing experience from last year which can help him overcome his rivals here.

Saturday Update; Oscartea no longer goes in the 1.35 so I'm a bit taken by the Govaness, a smart bumper type who receives weight off the field here. She has won at the track before and hopefully her jumping will come on for her hurdling debut, if so she has a serious engine and could be a bit of value at 10/1. I'm sticking with Duke of Navan in the Arkle trial as he will love the ground, is already proven in a battle over fences (something I worry about with the Nicholls shortie) and Urban Hymn ran well on Friday, just beaten by 2 smart horses. Dodging Bullets is the selection in the Sholer chase with his record early season and fresh, Sam and Paul are going well with a double today and he can give them another winner tomorrow. Not swaying from Goodwood Mirage in the Greatwood. Finally Little King Robin can provide a bit of value in the feature race over in Ireland. Given I think the Fly and Jezki will be watching each other like hawks there is a chance this admirable mare could get a big lead out in from, from which position you could trade out your bet or sit back and wait and see if the big guns can reel her in. I do hope the Fly wins, purely from an emotional POV, but this little mare is the bet in the race for me.


And that was it for the Cheltenham preview from the guys! No doubt I've missed a bit but it really was a great and information packed preview, I can't recommend going to one of these events enough if you get a chance. We broke for an interval after this, before coming back for the season preview as  whole, but more of that on a later blog. I just wanted to get the Cheltenham Preview out there before the weekend as it won't be much good after, and once again thanks to the London Racing Club for a top evening!

Let me quickly summarise what I took out of this most of all though; Our Father should run a blinder first time up, Vaniteux could produce something VERY special on Sunday but DR did twist my arm around about Goodwood Mirage as some value and nothing was said to put me off Buywise in the Paddy Power.

If you have any Cheltenham thoughts please share away!