12.15 2 mile 1 furlong Triumph Hurdle Trial
Sea the Stars lines up here carrying a double penalty for his two wins thus far in his career over obstacles, both victories on the bridle, and he will be popular to provide Pipe with an opening race double at this meeting. However this is a big step up in class of race and with the double penalty I think it makes sense to look elsewhere. I'm going to swerve Hargam for the Henderson/McCoy team as I'm sure he will be plenty short enough and instead chance one from a yard who have an excellent record with these ex-flat recruits. Mr Gallivanter is the selection here for the John Quinn yard; the stable think this could be their Triumph Hurdle horse and they should know when they've got a live one for that race! He is two from two over hurdles, jumps and stays well and can be backed at 13/2 so is the one for me in a tough opener to the card.
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| John Quinn trains the selection in the opener and the trainer knows a Triumph Hurdle horse when he sees one! |
12.50 2 mile 5 furlong Novice's Chase
A small but select field here with the preference for Champagne West here after his impressive win at the course last time out. The Hobbs yard have always had chasing in mind for this one and he didn't disappoint on debut beating perennial bridesmaid Colour Squadron in addition to a host of useful performances. Un Ace has been impressive in his victories but hasn't faced the opposition the selection has and was a faller on his only attempt at the Cheltenham fences. Champagne West can enhance his reputation here and I think we could see some ante-post ripples created on the back of this.
1.25 2 mile 110 yards Handicap Chase
A tricky handicap where many of those who fought out a Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham November meeting re-oppose. Bold Henry came out on top that day but has been put up 10lbs in the weights whist Sew on Target, Astracad and Karinga Dancer were in behind that day. However the one I like here is Solar Impulse who, unlike the majority of the field, is still really unexposed over fences and being a 4 year old gets in well at the weights. He ran a very nice 2nd to Moneraire at the Newbury Hennessy meeting and is only up 5lbs for that; with plenty more to come he can come out on top here.
2.00 2 mile 5 furlong December Gold Cup
In the big handicap of the day I am once again going to follow Ericht in here as I'm absolutely convinced there is a race in him off this mark. So well thought of by connections to be backed into join favorite for a handicap chase at the festival last year off a mark of 140, where he admittedly was pulled up, he has come down 3lbs in the handicap to a mark of 137 for this race and has run decent races at this course the last twice. With Barry Geraghty re-taking the reigns from Andrew Tinkler tomorrow he races with a lovely weight compared to some of those re-opposing from his previous two handicap runs who have gone up in the handicap. With the Henderson yard going far better now than they were earlier this season I think at 9/1 Ericht can provide us with a nice e/w selection. He has run well over the course, won at the trip and gone on soft ground - ticks in three boxes required to take a handicap like this.
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| Not as prestigious a Gold Cup this weekend but hopefully same result! |
2.35 3 mile Albert Barlett Novices Hurdle
A really hot renewal of this race where you can make a strong case for 4 out of the 6 horse and it's dangerous to discount any of the field with the exception of Volcanic Jack. Certainly an informative contest for the future.I'm going to take a chance on Binge Drinker for Rebecca Curtis at a very attractive 13/2 (e/w possibilities). He is 3/3 over hurdles thus far in his career, nicely progressive, and has proven a likable attitude to battle to his most recent success. He also is versatile regarding ground and won't be too troubled if underfoot conditions do worsen overnight. The opposition are hot, I've already mentioned that, so if I had to bet in this race I'd like to chance something with a rewarding price that I could bet e/w on and Binge Drinker is that horse.
3.10 2 mile 1 furlong International Hurdle
I've never been totally convinced about The New One; I don't think he jumps well enough to be a top top class hurdler and am once again looking to oppose him at his cramped odds here. He needs to be winning here, and winning well, to justify his position at the head of the Champion Hurdle betting but I think that the Nicky Henderson horse Vaniteux, receiving 8lbs in weight, could cause the odds on (8/15 shot) favorite a few concerns here. Vaniteux ran really well on the worst of the ground at Cheltenham last time out to finish 2nd in the hugely competitive Greatwood Hurdle off top weight, indeed he could well have won had he managed to get some fresher ground to make his challenge on and the better surface here will be more ideal. He jumped nicely there and Henderson has his yard in much better form that back in early November which is obviously in the selection's favor. The New One is rated 13lbs higher than Vaniteux and really should be winning on Saturday, however I'm taking a chance on the Greatwood runner up to cause an upset here.
3.45 2 mile 4 furlong 110 yard Relkeel Hurdle
Rock on Ruby will head the market here, as a previous Champion hurdle winner he has the class to make a real impact over an extended trip however connections would not be reverting to hurdles if his attempts at a fencing career had been more successful and I think he can prove vulnerable to an improving type here. I'll take a punt on a horse rated only 2lbs lower than ROR, thought highly enough to be sent off as favorite for the fixed brush hurdle shouldering a whopping 12 stone, in Volnay De Thaix. The selection was 4th that bad but that was with a huge weight, on bad ground and over 3 miles - a real stamina test! The step back in trip will see the Henderson horse to better effect, his best form is over this trip, and with Geraghty in the saddle you can be assured of a top ride. I'd rather take a bigger price on a 5 year old with definite improvement ahead of him rather than a 9 year old reverting from fences and Volnay De Thaix is the selection in the closing race, with Lac Fontana another danger but one who may find it too much to give weight to the field.
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| This man needs to be having a good day tomorrow for the blog! |
Thanks very much for reading and be lucky if you have a bet!
I'll be back on Sunday with the usual weekend review
Alex
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