Both of those horses fit the ideal profile of a 2nd season hurdler; 9 of the last 11 runners represented this category. However obviously neither have been missed in the market and they are plenty short enough, especially as an ante-post selection as they may get pushed out slightly on the day as bookies vie for your business. I'm going to look to a couple at bigger prices as my selections and will put up 2 horses in this preview, one who will prefer better ground and one who won't mind more rain just so we can cover both eventualities.
First up is Goodwood Mirage, a horse I fancied for the Greatwood at Cheltenham before he was pulled because of the soft ground. I am concerned his trainer, Jonjo O'Neil, isn't in the best of form at the moment but AP McCoy keeps the faith with Goodwood Mirage so I won't desert him yet. This horse put of a much improved round of jumping on seasonal debut this season up at Wetherby; this coincided with his first run after a gelding operation and I really think this could be the making of GM. He has bags of speed for this minimum trip having been a useful performer on the flat winning over 10 furlongs in his time, does go on softer ground (although wouldn't want it too soft) and temperament issues that may have hindered him in the past could be long behind him after having 'the chop'. The form of his Wetherby run is working out well with winners coming out of the field and whist he has gone up 10lbs for that win he is still unexposed as a hurdler and at 12/1 is also a nice price here as an e/w selection.
 |
| AP McCoy is a great help in the saddle for the first selection Goodwood Mirage |
The other horse I want on my side is Baradari from the Venitia Williams yard who are starting to come into some good form and had a big handicap winner up at Cheltenham last weekend. The yard wasn't going at all well when Baradari ran at Cheltenham in the Greatwood but they are really starting to turn the tide now and I want to keep her runners on side, especially when the mud is flying. Baradari needs the ground to be testing this weekend but was staying on really well up the Cheltenham Hill last year in the Fred Winter so won't be phased if we get a really fast run Ladbroke as it can help bring his stamina into play. The trip may actually be a touch shorter than ideal but with a big field size we should get a fair bit of pace in the race which I hope will compensate for this. Dropped 1lbs in the handicap on the back of the Greatwood run, with jockey and trainer higher on confidence now and with a lovely racing weight of 10-6 (7 of the last 9 winnners carried under 10stone 9 lbs) I'll add Baradari to my profile at 16/1.
 |
| Can Venetia Williams get another big race winner on a Saturday? |
Goodwood Mirage e/w at 12/1
Baradari e/w at 16/1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday Update
Unfortunately Baradari is a non runner but Goodwood Mirage still goes to post and with conditions currently soft, but possibilities of improvement according to Clerk of the Course Chris Stickels, I'm still hopeful of a good run. Jonjo couldn't be in much worse form (not had a winner since the 19th of November) which is a massive concern but I do really like the horse and think he has a big handicap in him somewhere this season so would be very annoyed if I missed it today! However I'll also add another string to my bow in the shape of Clondaw Warrior, another ex flat horse who has joined the Willie Mullins yard in recent times. What grabs me about this horse is that Mullins managed to improve him 34lbs(!!!) on the flat so if this horse has improved anything like that amount over hurdles he is still incredibly well handicapped. He was a good 3rd in the Greatwood and the slightly better ground may help more here, he can race off a featherweight of a dead 10 stone and unlike my other selection Mullins is firing in the winners!
Elsewhere on the Ascot card I do still like The Young Master, the disqualified winner of the Badger Ales trophy at Wincanton who has still been put up 14lbs by the handicapper despite being stripped of said victory and prize money due to actually being ineligible for the race! However the manner in which he won that race on the day was more than deserving of a 14lbs hike and as an improving 5 year old a 'concelation' prize may await connections today. A few of his rivals come here off the back of a gruelling race in the Hennessy which may have left its mark where as the selection has had a decent break and at 3/1 should go very close.
The Long Walk hurdle should go to Zarkandar but he is priced accordingly and I won't be getting involved given the incredible record of 2 time winner Reve De Sivola in the race who is a much more attractive price but hasn't shown much since his win here last year. No bet for me.
Up at Haydock I'll be on one of my horses to follow Bitofapuzzle in the mares hurdle at 1.30. She will love the stamina test presented by conditions here and can further enhance her growing reputation as a mare to follow for the Harry Fry stable. The Priates Queen represents a big test however and this will be a big feather in her cap if she can take victory today. Harry Fry sees her going over 3 miles and fences in time but with stamina always a vital asset on testing ground up at Haydock this 2 mile 4 trip will take plenty of getting and I'm hopeful.
That's all for today on quite a low key day of racing compared to what we've been used to but the top class action comes thick and fast over the festive period so it's probably best to have a slightly quieter weekend in the run up to the festival feast! Have a good one and be lucky!
Thanks for reading
Alex
Saturday Update - Selections
Ascot - 3.00 The Young Master
Ascot - 3.30 Goodwood Mirage (already advised)
Ascot - 3.30 Clondaw Warrior
Haydock 1.30 Bitofapuzzle
Baradari e/w at 16/1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday Update
Unfortunately Baradari is a non runner but Goodwood Mirage still goes to post and with conditions currently soft, but possibilities of improvement according to Clerk of the Course Chris Stickels, I'm still hopeful of a good run. Jonjo couldn't be in much worse form (not had a winner since the 19th of November) which is a massive concern but I do really like the horse and think he has a big handicap in him somewhere this season so would be very annoyed if I missed it today! However I'll also add another string to my bow in the shape of Clondaw Warrior, another ex flat horse who has joined the Willie Mullins yard in recent times. What grabs me about this horse is that Mullins managed to improve him 34lbs(!!!) on the flat so if this horse has improved anything like that amount over hurdles he is still incredibly well handicapped. He was a good 3rd in the Greatwood and the slightly better ground may help more here, he can race off a featherweight of a dead 10 stone and unlike my other selection Mullins is firing in the winners!
Elsewhere on the Ascot card I do still like The Young Master, the disqualified winner of the Badger Ales trophy at Wincanton who has still been put up 14lbs by the handicapper despite being stripped of said victory and prize money due to actually being ineligible for the race! However the manner in which he won that race on the day was more than deserving of a 14lbs hike and as an improving 5 year old a 'concelation' prize may await connections today. A few of his rivals come here off the back of a gruelling race in the Hennessy which may have left its mark where as the selection has had a decent break and at 3/1 should go very close.
The Long Walk hurdle should go to Zarkandar but he is priced accordingly and I won't be getting involved given the incredible record of 2 time winner Reve De Sivola in the race who is a much more attractive price but hasn't shown much since his win here last year. No bet for me.
Up at Haydock I'll be on one of my horses to follow Bitofapuzzle in the mares hurdle at 1.30. She will love the stamina test presented by conditions here and can further enhance her growing reputation as a mare to follow for the Harry Fry stable. The Priates Queen represents a big test however and this will be a big feather in her cap if she can take victory today. Harry Fry sees her going over 3 miles and fences in time but with stamina always a vital asset on testing ground up at Haydock this 2 mile 4 trip will take plenty of getting and I'm hopeful.
That's all for today on quite a low key day of racing compared to what we've been used to but the top class action comes thick and fast over the festive period so it's probably best to have a slightly quieter weekend in the run up to the festival feast! Have a good one and be lucky!
Thanks for reading
Alex
Saturday Update - Selections
Ascot - 3.00 The Young Master
Ascot - 3.30 Goodwood Mirage (already advised)
Ascot - 3.30 Clondaw Warrior
Haydock 1.30 Bitofapuzzle
No comments:
Post a Comment