Epsom Oaks Day

It seems crazy to think after all the build-up to the Investec Derby meeting regarding the weather and ground conditions that we may actually see a bit of firm in the going description but after clerk of the course Andrew Cooper changed the going description to good overnight, and with temperatures of up to 25 degrees in store today, you certainly couldn't rule it out. That won't inconvenience my ante-post selection for the Oaks (Ithimal) and I'm still very hopeful that come 4:10 today we will have bagged the winner of the 2nd fillies classic of the season for blog readers. The supporting card for the big race of the day is also very good and I'll have a look at a few races here.

2.10 1 Mile 2 furlong Handicap

I'm siding with the hugely unexposed sort Air Pilot on his handicap debut here. Trainer Ralph Beckett has a great record at the Epsom venue and he wouldn't be sending Air Pilot out here if he had no sort of a chance. After winning a maiden last time out over a distance 2 furlongs extra than today's racing distance Air Pilot will have stamina for the trip assured, and given the stiff start and finish to the course that could play into his hands as he passes tired horses who have the burden of lumps of weight in the home straight today. At 8/1, with 12 runners giving 3 places to shoot at he can certainly reward e/w support against more exposed rivals with less room for maneuver in the handicap.

2.45 1 mile (and a bit) Group 3

A step up in grade here and we're shooting for the win with Windhoek with the master jockey Keiren Fallon on board. Basically I think he can turn around form with French Navy over a slightly shorter trip and on better ground, while that Goodwood run does provide encouragement that he will handle the Epsom undulations today. Graphic has most of his recent form on soft ground and I think the going may not be exactly to his liking today, whereas the selection has good form on firmer going. Finally Gregorian, the last of the contenders in my opinion and the winner of this race last year, could possibly be in need of the run against race fit rivals and I think Windhoek can continue his upward progression with victory today.

3.20 1 Mile Handicap

Abseil will definitely go off a short priced favorite here on the back of an impressive 2nd at Chester from an awful draw and could really scoot up, with the whispers being that he has a stone in hand of his official mark. However such a hot favorite leaves the market open for something at an e/w price making the frame in a competitive heat and that is the angle I'm going for here with Dance and Dance. Jimmy Fortune rides this one, a previous winner of the race so a holder of that all-important Epsom course and distance form, and the quickening of the ground will certainly play into the selection's hands. As I say he won this Mile Handicap off a 6 lbs higher mark in 2011 so, although possibly not the horse he was back then his run last time out when a good 2nd over the mile trip showed signs that he can still operate at a very good level. Drawn 11, by no means a negative, I think Dance and Dance can make the first 4 home here and reward e/w support.

4.00 Epsom Oaks - Ithimal already advised ante-post (Ante-Post Oaks and Derby)

4.45 7f Listed Race

Parbold is the selection here with Ryan Moore up top for the first time and a hood fitted, always an interesting piece of headgear and one that has shot to prominence in recent times. Parbold has by far the best form on offer in this race, and although disappointing the last twice did run well on his reappearance giving weight away in a handicap at Newmarket so any concerns that he hasn't trained on over the winter can be ignored. A beaten favorite last time out, it could be that 6f is slightly too short for Parbold and a return to his favored 7f, with a top jockey booked, can see him return to his form of 2013 which will be enough to take this race. That is the Spirit, odds on favorite for this race, has been priced up on potential rather than form in the book and if Parbold can return to his best here will reward a gamble at bigger odds than I was expecting given his 2013 exploits.

That's all for Oaks day, thanks for reading!