We're now less than a week away from the next two classics of the British Flat Racing season, the Oaks and the Derby at the iconic Epsom track, and excitement is building after the traditional 'Breakfast with the Stars' event held on Thursday at the course. This provides a final opportunity for connections to test their horses around the unique undulations and the bend of the 1 and 1/2 mile course as well as a chance to build even more hype around the leading contenders. In this blog I'll put forward one horse I like for the fillies event and the Derby itself in the hope that we can find Classic glory this coming weekend!
The Investec Oaks - 4pm on Friday
The ground looks like having a bit of give in it after the recent unsettled weather that we have seen in England recently and this won't inconvenience my selection, the Godolphin trained filly Ihtimal having won previously on good to soft ground up at Doncaster over a mile. Ihtimal race a really encouraging race in the 1000 Guineas to finish 3rd, staying on strongly at the end over a trip that definitely would have been short of her ideal trip. Ihtimal has good Meydan form over 10f shaping like she will appreciate the step up to the Oaks trip (her breeding also suggests this, as well as suggesting soft ground won't be an issue), so to run so well back over a mile was really good to see and she has been kept under wraps since that run in anticipation of a bold big here. This filly hasn't had loads of publicity in the build up to this race but her trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has come out and said it's all systems go for the Oaks now. Keiren Fallon has been working this horse and he is an excellent jockey around the Epsom Downs course so to have him up is a big boost as well. All in all I think she looks very likely to get the trip, ground will be fine and she could have a master jockey on board around this course - definitely set to go for the Oaks 8/1 is a fair e/w price.
The Investec Derby - 4pm on Saturday
If you had said a year ago my fancy for the Derby would be a Peter Chapple-Hyam trained, Qatar racing club owned colt then there would be only one guess as to who I was keen on. However fast forward one year and Hydrogen has only had one appearance, being soundly beaten in a Newmarket maiden and my fancy is actually Arod under the same owner-trainer combo. Arod's form last time out, a staying on second place in the Dante stakes behind the Great Gatsby, has been franked today (Sunday) as the victor that day went on to win the French Derby and the Dante is a solid trial for the big classic in June, having produced recent winner Workforce only a few years back. One slight concern is that Arod would prefer the ground to dry out slightly if he is to line up on Saturday but he does have form on good to soft going so won't require a total drought to take his place. Arod was staying on well over the 10f Dante trip which is encouraging for the 12f Derby trip and his trainer knows what it takes to win the middle-distance classic having been victorious in this race twice before so should have Arod trained spot on to tackle the step up. At 20/1 I think Arod has been overlooked in favour of the more fancy entries from the Gosden, O'Brien and Godolphin entries (Arod beat True Story at York yet True Story is 10/1 in places??) and I don't see his price coming in too much with those more attractive stables generating loads of publicity in the run up to the big race. Hold off, see what the weather does, and get involved if the rain stays away in the run up to Saturday. Or, if you believe Countryfile ( forecast for pre-Derby week: Monday showery; Tuesday same; Wed heavy rain; Thu dry; Friday dry.) get involved now as with that weather surely it will be good to soft ground at worst and this would surely see Arod allowed to take his chance.
Once again thanks for reading!
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