William Hill Casino Club The Big Priced Loser: The first Classic races of the Flat season - 2000 Guineas Ante-post

Sunday, 27 April 2014

The first Classic races of the Flat season - 2000 Guineas Ante-post

This weekend sees the first two Classic races of the 2014 Flat Racing Season at Newmarket when the Cambridgeshire venue holds the 2000 and 1000 Guineas. Both races are run over the mile of the Newmarket straight, with it's famous dip that throws many a horse out of it's stride, and the 2000 Guineas forms the first part of the rarely attempted (in recent times anyway) Triple Crown along with the Derby and the St Leger. For those that cast racing as a sports stuck in the dark ages this is actually an example of the sport throwing itself at the forefront of modernism as both races are run for equal prize money. This year see's both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas market's headed by a hot favourite, although Rizeena heading the fillies market is not quite as short as Kingman. In this blog I'll take a look firstly at the 2000 Guineas before looking at the fillies race later in the week.


2000 Guineas

After his red-hot display in the Greenham stakes at Newbury over 7f Kingman heads the market for the first Classic of the season at even money, horrendously short considering he was a 3/1 shot in the aftermath of that race and without doing anything else has shortened 2 points in the market! Ok his case is obvious; he is unbeaten thus far in his career, has all important course form having won here on his debut, his trainer John Gosden has started this season in flying form and he was tremendously pleasing on the eye on his re-appearance, leaving no doubts as to whether he had trained on from his 2 year old career. The only slight doubt is the trip, as all his racing so far has been done over 7f although the way he was going away LTO wouldn't hint at an stamina doubts. However you can be sure that the 2000 Guineas will be run at a furious pace so if Kingman is to win this he will certainly need to prove his stamina on the 3rd May.
Australia is 2nd in at the prices and master trainer Aidan O'Brien is sending his charge to Newmarket without the benefit of a prep run. Given the horses he has present in his stable O'Brien could have gallop sessions with as much strength in depth as many Grade 1 races run on the racecourse so I don't think that should be seen as a negative. Encouragingly Australia has proved he stays the trip, with a win last time out over the highly-thought of Free Eagle from the Weld stable and he isn't as reliant on the ground having a bit of give in it as the market leader. There is the possibility that Kingman won't run if the ground is too quick which would make the current price on Australia look huge but I actually would rather be on his stablemate War Command if O'Brien sent him to Newmarket. There has been a deal of talk about War Command going over the channel to contest the French equivalent of this race, which would explain his price, however those plans are not set in stone and if he was to appear at Newmarket next weekend he would warrant huge consideration. Winner of the Dewhurt stakes here last season to add to his 6 length win in the Coventry stakes, one of the biggest 2 year old races of the season, makes the form of War Command some of the best in the race. The uncertainty over his target invalidates him as an Ante-post punt really but if he turns up on the day I'd advise backing him.
Other horses towards the head of the market include Kingston Hill, however the form of his Racing Post Trophy win took a hit the other day with the 2nd out of that race Johann Strauss being thrashed on his reappearance. The Great Gatsby, further back in the field that day, gave another Guineas hopeful Toormore a bit of a scare at Newmarket last week so it's not worthless form by any means and Kingston Hill will definitely get the mile trip, indeed he is due to step up in trip after the Guineas so if they do go a good gallop that will suit Varian's charge down to the ground.
The aforementioned Toormore, the Champion 2 year old of the 2012-13 season, is as big as 7/1 for this race, a very big price in my opinion and he is certainly my pick of the market principles. He did nothing wrong on his reappearance in the Craven stakes, winning although not in the visually impressive manner that Kingman won his trial in. However Toormore isn't a flashy horse according to his trainer and only really does enough in victory so was never going to blow the field away by 10 lengths. He has some very good form in the book, including his course and distance win here last time out, stamina for the trip is assured and he will have Richard Hughes on board, one of the best jockeys in the weighing room. Toormore goes on a variety of ground, no such concerns about fast ground for this one, so its safe to say barring injury Toormore will definitely give you a run for your money if you got involved ante-post. 7/1 is a more than fair price and I can't believe he will be allowed to go off at this price on the day - he is the advised bet of the market principles.

Further out in the market we have a bit of Latino flair in the shape of the Spanish trained Noozhoh Canaries although I can't profess to knowing too much about this horse! His trainer says this horse must have a good strong gallop to be seen at his best, which the Guineas should give him, but thats about all I can tell you. He was very visually impressive in routing the field in a conditions race in Spain on his last start but I don't know what that form amounts too and he has been pricewised so this current price will have that factored into it. Outstrip, a winner at the Breeders cup last year, comes here without a prep run this season. However Godolphin have sent their 3 year olds into Classics with no prep run many a time before so that isn't a concern; more of a concern is the fact he patently didn't handle the track last time he ran here. He completely lost his action coming into the dip and I'd be very wary of backing the Appelby trained horse on the back of that. Night of Thunder was 2nd to Kingman in the Greenham, although a clear best of the rest, while Berkshire was a big disappointment in that race but could benefit from the step back up to a mile and he has form at Newmarket. He was pulling way too hard in the Greenham and never gave himself a chance, but that could have been freshness and any repetition of his very smart 2 year old form would make his current price of 40/1 seem massive. He is probably overpriced and bookies may have overreacted to his re-appearance run, prior to that he was around a 12/1 shot which is a truer reflection of his ability. He isn't certain to line up on the 3rd May but if he does I would advise taking a good look at Paul Cole's horse. Not a flashy name like O'Brien, Hannon, Gosden etc he could slip under the radar and go off a much bigger price than his form suggest he should.

2000 Guineas Selections

Head of the market - Toormore
Outsiders - Berkshire
If he turns up on the day - War Command

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