Its a really good looking weekend of racing coming up, with some quality flat action going on at Newbury and a nice jumps meeting for our entertainment over the Scottish border. While I feel like we have more of a grip on form over the jumps the fact that a lot of these horses have been on the go for a long time this season should temper enthusiasm for big bets in my opinion as we have been seeing some unpredictable results over recent days, especially with the differing ground conditions to be factored in as well. However there are a few horses I think are worth a dabble over the sticks this weekend and I'll touch on these before checking out the speedsters on the flat.
Firstly up at Ayr Eduardo can reward trainer Nicky Richard's patience and take the 2.05 on the card. Richards has not been tempted by the big festivals this season, preferring to save his charge for this race after a win over 2 miles at the venue in March. While he hasn't beaten much over fences this far he has been impressive in doing his job and his freshness can give him the edge in this Novices Chase.
In the Scottish Champion Hurdle the presence of My Tent or Yours is causing most of the field to be running out of the handicap. However I do like the chances of John Quinn's admirable mare Cockney Sparrow. While in the receipt of 7lbs from MTOY's in the fighting fifth in November she was only beat 3 lengths, and while that could have been more and Henderson won't have had his horse 100% fit Cockney Sparrow is running with almost 2 stone less than the top weight tomorrow after you take into account the jockeys claim. She will appreciate the step back down in trip after running over 2 miles 4f at Cheltenham and at 12/1 looks a fair e/w bet.
Finally we have a similar situation in the Scottish Grand National where Tidal Bay is causing 18 of the runners to be carrying more weight than they would usually do! I've put forward my case for Alan King's Godsmejudge in a previous blog, and whilst it is very unfortunate for Wayne Hutchinson to be ruled out of the race with injury Aiden Coleman is a more than able substitute rider and my enthusiasm for last year's winner remains strong. Part of me wonders if Paul Nicholls has been quite cute here in running Tidal Bay, his other entry Sam Winner now runs off a much more favourable weight than he would have had Tidal Bay been withdrawn, and he could well give the selection the most to think about.
Let's take the obstacles out of the equation now and have a look at the action down at Newbury. We have the first of the Guineas trials at the Berkshire venue and anything John Gosden is running at the moment warrants huge respect as his stable have started off the season in absolutely incredible form. With a treble on Wednesday followed by a 4-timer at Newbury on Friday there are no trainers in better form currently. That bodes extremely well for Kingman in the 2000 Guineas trial for which he is the 7/4 market leader. However I would be wary of betting in these trial races; Not only does he meet some extremely warm opposition tomorrow but you just don't know how tuned up he will be either. Jockey James Doyle has said "He's right where we want him to be for his first run of the season." however how are we as punters to know just where that is! I'm sure he will be set to benefit from the run and with the opposition anything but short on quality I'll be taking a watching brief on this one.
However in the 1000 Guineas trial I do really quite like the chances of Marco Botti's Al Thakhira. She doesn't occupy as prominent a position as Kingman does in the Newmarket version of their respective trial races but that makes me think that connections will want to see exactly what they have tomorrow, to assess if she really does have a chance in the 1000 Guineas proper. When you take into account a previous poor run (on absolutely lightening quick ground in Santa Anita that she just didn't handle) that connections will want to banish to the back of their memories with a good performance tomorrow on her preferred softer surface then I think at 7/2 she rates a good win bet in the Fred Darling Stakes.
Finally in the 3.30, the extremely trappy 25 runner 1 mile handicap I think Brocklebank could outrun his price. He has been running on the all weather so far this season where the narrow track of Lingfield has seen things happen a bit too quickly for him. Back on the turf, on a more galloping track (Newbury is one of the fairest tracks out there in my opinion) Brocklebank will have a bit more time to get going and at a tissue price of 33/1 could rewards some e/w support in this big handicap.
Lets hope I can combine some luck over both codes this weekend to get some winning selections up, and make sure you watch the action at Newbury closely, and then watch it again and again as there are sure to be some performances of note to take out of this Saturday's action. Best of luck and thanks for reading!
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