Weekend Reflections featuring the Cheltenham December Meeting

Another weekend closer to the Christmas break (can't wait) and another weekend of top class National Hunt racing over. We had some notable market moves for the Cheltenham Festival created by the action on the track over Friday, Saturday and Sunday so join me as I look back on the most notable performances seen over the past weekend.

Friday - RSA ripples from Cheltenham and Bangor

Well the Cheltenham weekend started with me looking very silly as I attempted to oppose King's Palace in the opener with Sausalito Sunrise, thinking that an 8lbs swing in the weights would be enough for the form to be turned around after King's Palace beat SS last time out but receiving 5lbs in weight. I could not have been more wrong if I tried as King's Palace produced a fantastic round of jumping on his way to a 7 length victory. This was a hugely impressive victory for David Pip's horse, whom the trainer did not rule out being the best jumper he has ever trained post race.  "He's the horse that every owner, trainer and jockey dreams of" was one of the soundbites available in the aftermath of the race, quite some claim! This saw him cut into 7/1 favorite for the RSA Chase in March and after this authoritative display over the Cheltenham fences he has a huge amount in his favor including a really likable jumping technique which would not look out of place in the Gold Cup never mind the novice events. The only concern for me is that his two chase wins have come in small fields where he can dominate proceedings, so how he will cope with the larger field in the RSA is up for debate. He also disappointed at the festival last year but fencing was always going to be the making of him so I won't let that put me off. Certainly I wouldn't want to be a layer of King's Palace for Cheltenham glory.

A beautiful jumper, King's Palace is as short as 4/1 in places for the RSA Chase (Photo John Grossick R.P)

There were far fewer ante-post ripples after the chasing debut of top class hurdler Melodic Rendezvous just moments later at Bangor. Despite facing much lesser opposition than Kings Palace Melodic Rendezvous has to work even harder for victory; Nick Scholfield had to niggle away at his mount from quite some way out and only managed to score by a length in the end from a 135 rated hurdler (consider MR was rated in the mid 160's over hurdles). He jumped round, something many chasing debutantes don't managed I guess, but this wasn't very impressive and even quotes of 40/1 for the Arkle would not tempt me on the back of this run. Alternatively he is a 25/1 shot for the JLT over half a mile further but I won't be following MR in for Cheltenham glory, especially considering all his better hurdles form is on testing ground which (hopefully) isn't too likely come March. Comparing this to the performance of King's Palace a few minutes earlier was like chalk and cheese!

Saturday at Cheltenham

We had what looked a fairly informative card at Cheltenham on Saturday with some useful sorts putting their Triumph Hurdle claims out there for all to see in the opener, The New One strutting his stuff for the Champion Hurdle and a couple of nice novice chasers as well as the Handicap stuff and the Relkeel hurdle where one time Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby was out. So just how did day two at the December meet go and what can we learn going forwards?

Hargam won the opener in a tight finish from Karezak, who was giving the winner weight so probably comes out of this race as slightly the better horse. Indeed you would fancy the Alan King horse would have won had he not made a hash of the last, however the hurdles are there to jump and Karezak didn't seem to fancy doing that at the last! However Henderson reported post-race that his horse (and the eventual winner) will be suited by better ground and the word was that AP McCoy thought it rode like a good race. Both winner and runner up will be targeted at the Triumph, for which they are 14/1 and 20/1 respectively, and the fact they pulled so far ahead of the remainder proves they were the class acts in the race. However I'd be wary of punting in the Triumph so far in advance, you have to fancy there are a few more horses who will contest the race in March who we haven't even seen yet from the big yard. Henderson even said that Hargam was only 'up there' with the best of his so what else have this stable got to fire at the race? Horse's to bear in mind, but not a race to bet ante-post in yet for me.

Wayne Hutchinson would have hoped for a better jump at the last from Karezak!

After the performance of King's Palace yesterday would we be treated to another good staying Novice in the 3 runner Novices Chase, which saw Champagne West go off a well backed favorite? Well I was actually quite disappointed with the favorite, even though he won in the end after Little John ran out (amazing that the horse and jockey are both OK after watching this). Champagne West didn't jump well in the first part of the race and I wasn't the only one unimpressed by the winner, he was pushed out to 20/1 for the RSA and JLT after being a shorter price on the back of an impressive debut. Perhaps he was feeling the effects of that race on testing ground, his trainer said he may not have liked the sticky going either, and Hobbs is still under the impression he is a 3 miler in time but will be coming back to this course on New Years Day to contest a 2 mile 5 race for match practice. Perhaps we will see a more impressive performance there, and if I had bet ante-post after his debut I wouldn't be ripping up my ticket just yet, but this is another case of sit and wait regarding having a bet for March now. 

We certainly saw a few moves after the taking performance of Blaklion in the as he won as he liked under a chance ride by Ryan Hatch, who took the mount after Jamie Moore had to step down post-fall earlier. Blaklion already has an enviable record at Cheltenham and quotes of 14/1 for the Albert Barlett look very generous to me for all there are a host of hot Irish horses in the market. He now has winning form over the distance and at the course, huge positives, as well as a top attitude to boot. The way he went clear from a decent field here really impressed me and I think the price is only so large for the race in March due to certain horses in opposition being trained by Mr W Mullins. Does Tell Us More really deserve to be the same price or shorter in the market or is this just hype talking over form in the book? I could look silly come March but for me I like a good bit of solid form to go on rather than talk from the yard.

The International Hurdle saw a few Champion Hurdle aspirations go on the line, as well as the aspirations of Mad Moose to ever race again! Sadly Mad Moose refused to race yet again but fortunately Vaniteux and The New One did elect to jump off and it was The New One who really enhanced his Champion Hurdle claims here. Both horses came over the last together but it was TNO who really asserted well, clearing away up the hill to win the International for the second time. He deserved to be trimmed in for glory on the opening day of the festival on the back of this, he had really progressed since his run at Haydock, and he is now a biggest price of 3/1 and generally a 5/2 shot behind 9/4 poke Faugheen. His jumping was also far better than I have seen previously and I was very impressed, something I am not usually feeling after I watch The New One race I must admit. What really excited me (as well as the performance on the track) was that Nigel Twiston-Davies didn't rule out letting TNO clash with Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton park over the Festival season...go on Nigel, give us a real Christmas treat!!!

The New One and Vaniteux clear the last together but it was the former who came out on top

The largest cheers of the day was heard in the closing race on the card as this went to a horse that loves the undulations of Cheltenham in former Champion hurdle winner Rock on Ruby. He saw off the challenge of Volnay De Thaix to take the Relkeel hurdle, a race previously won by great horses such as the late Oscar Whiskey and also More of That. Rock on Ruby is a tough horse who loves it round here and it was great to see him back in the winners enclosure over this extended trip. There isn't a 2 mile 4 furlong hurdle for ROR at Cheltenham, he would have to wait for Aintree for that, so it will be interesting to see if Fry targets the World Hurdle for his charge considering his love of the course. He is a 25/1 shot for that race, quite a tempting price given the open nature of the World Hurdle this year after More of That suffered a shock reversal a couple of weeks ago. Volnay De Thaix ran well in defeat, staying on at the end, and the World Hurdle trip wouldn't be beyond him either if Henderson elects to send him there, however I feel Mr Henderson may save him for a chasing campaign now.

Noel Fehily takes the adulation of the Prestbury Park Faithful

Also on Saturday Sew on Target continued the rich vein of form of the Tizzard yard as he won the 1.25 under young Brendan Powell, who has benefited from the Tizzard form in his new role as stable jockey. Niceonefrankie hosed up in the big handicap, the December Gold Cup, at a nice price of 16/1. This race really fell into the winners lap as horses fell left right and centre, indeed he came into the home straight with a 20 length lead, however as I said earlier the obstacles are there to be jumped and Aidan Coleman got a nice tune out of his mount here. You would have to worry about his chances in future handicaps as he will surely go up in the weights for this win in a race that looked a weak renewal before the off and got even weaker as many of the big guns departed at the obstacles. Coleman gave his mount a beautiful ride it must be said, getting him out in front to test the stamina of the field and this have the added benefit of keeping him out of trouble. Well done Aidan who did tip his ride in his RacingUK column, I should have listened! Splash of Ginge was a faller when starting to make his challenge and looks to be on a nice mark, possibly one to take out of the race for next time...if he can stand up.

Niceonefrankie doing what you are meant to do at a fence under Aidan Coleman

I fancy we saw a good one up at Doncaster in the shape of Peace and Co, he was pulling Daryl Jacob's arms out all the way round as he traveled like an absolute beauty of a horse and jumped excellently as well. A 20/1 shot for the Triumph before the race Peace and Co was giving weight to a 2 time winner and thrashed the field by any distance you liked, he is now 8/1 for glory in March and I wouldn't be a layer at that price. I was seriously impressed here and would much rather back Peace and Co at 8/1 than Hargam for all Hargam beat better opposition, indeed this was a performance that almost saw me break my promise to not bet on the Triumph just yet! However I had to remind myself it is a long way till March and we will see many more contenders for that race coming out over the coming months; it's not like other races where we know basically what is going to line up at Prestbury park for the Fez. Nicky Henderson was very very happy post race, indeed I fancy he was more taken by this horse than his Cheltenham winner as he had a real look of pleasure on his face. No doubt about it Peace and Co looks a serious horse!

Sunday - Ireland leading the way

The best of the Sunday action came from Navan, where Willie Mullins had a host of runners out as usual so Cheltenham moves we virtually guaranteed. Worryingly for British racing there were more runners in the first 2 races combined that on the whole of the card at any 7 race card in Britain over the weekend! However for once it wasn't a Mullins runner who impressed most as Gordon Elliott took the limelight this time with No More Heroes. The Gigginstown runner took the Novice Hurdle event on the card ahead of Punchestown bumper winner Shaneshill, something of a surprise in the market as the winner was 3/1 compared to the 4/9 at which the eventual runner up was sent off. It may be that Shaneshill will be a better horse on better ground as he didn't look totally at ease with the soft going, however No More Heroes was a very impressive winner and showed a great attitude to go with barrels of stamina. He has point to point form over 3 miles so it could be that the Albert Bartlett is the race for this one, for which he is now a 7/1 shot at the head of the market. Alternatively you could look at the runner up, thinking that the better ground in March will suit him more, the shorter distance of the Neptune will probably suit him more and after today's defeat he is a 10/1 chance to emulate stablemate Faugheen and take that race. However take nothing away from the winner this was an impressive and thoroughly likable performance.

And that the wrap from an interesting December weekend, not the highest quality Cheltenham meeting ever but still a good one and it was nicely supplemented with Doncaster and Navan. We've got Ascot coming next weekend which could be out first sight of Josses Hill over fences as well as Douvan, Supreme Novices talking horse, a possible entry in a hurdle on the card.

Thanks for reading and always views appreciated!

Cheers

Alex

The Cheltenham December Meeting - Day 2

Day 2 is full of decent action so let's get underway right away! The going looks like it will be quite testing; currently good to soft but apparently riding quite testing so stamina will again be a vital asset especially combined with the stiff uphill finish at Cheltenham. Racing is off at 12:15 and that seems like as good a place as any to start!

12.15 2 mile 1 furlong Triumph Hurdle Trial

Sea the Stars lines up here carrying a double penalty for his two wins thus far in his career over obstacles, both victories on the bridle, and he will be popular to provide Pipe with an opening race double at this meeting. However this is a big step up in class of race and with the double penalty I think it makes sense to look elsewhere. I'm going to swerve Hargam for the Henderson/McCoy team as I'm sure he will be plenty short enough and instead chance one from a yard who have an excellent record with these ex-flat recruits. Mr Gallivanter is the selection here for the John Quinn yard; the stable think this could be their Triumph Hurdle horse and they should know when they've got a live one for that race! He is two from two over hurdles, jumps and stays well  and can be backed at 13/2 so is the one for me in a tough opener to the card.

John Quinn trains the selection in the opener and the trainer knows a Triumph Hurdle horse when he sees one!

12.50 2 mile 5 furlong Novice's Chase

A small but select field here with the preference for Champagne West here after his impressive win at the course last time out. The Hobbs yard have always had chasing in mind for this one and he didn't disappoint on debut beating perennial bridesmaid Colour Squadron in addition to a host of useful performances. Un Ace has been impressive in his victories but hasn't faced the opposition the selection has and was a faller on his only attempt at the Cheltenham fences. Champagne West can enhance his reputation here and I think we could see some ante-post ripples created on the back of this.

1.25 2 mile 110 yards Handicap Chase

A tricky handicap where many of those who fought out a Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham November meeting re-oppose. Bold Henry came out on top that day but has been put up 10lbs in the weights whist Sew on Target, Astracad and Karinga Dancer were in behind that day. However the one I like here is Solar Impulse who, unlike the majority of the field, is still really unexposed over fences and being a 4 year old gets in well at the weights. He ran a very nice 2nd to Moneraire at the Newbury Hennessy meeting and is only up 5lbs for that; with plenty more to come he can come out on top here.

2.00 2 mile 5 furlong December Gold Cup 

In the big handicap of the day I am once again going to follow Ericht in here as I'm absolutely convinced there is a race in him off this mark. So well thought of by connections to be backed into join favorite for a handicap chase at the festival last year off a mark of 140, where he admittedly was pulled up, he has come down 3lbs in the handicap to a mark of 137 for this race and has run decent races at this course the last twice. With Barry Geraghty re-taking the reigns from Andrew Tinkler tomorrow he races with a lovely weight compared to some of those re-opposing from his previous two handicap runs who have gone up in the handicap. With the Henderson yard going far better now than they were earlier this season I think at 9/1 Ericht can provide us with a nice e/w selection. He has run well over the course, won at the trip and gone on soft ground - ticks in three boxes required to take a handicap like this.

Not as prestigious a Gold Cup this weekend but hopefully same result!

2.35 3 mile Albert Barlett Novices Hurdle

A really hot renewal of this race where you can make a strong case for 4 out of the 6 horse and it's dangerous to discount any of the field with the exception of Volcanic Jack. Certainly an informative contest for the future.I'm going to take a chance on Binge Drinker for Rebecca Curtis at a very attractive 13/2 (e/w possibilities). He is 3/3 over hurdles thus far in his career, nicely progressive, and has proven a likable attitude to battle to his most recent success. He also is versatile regarding ground and won't be too troubled if underfoot conditions do worsen overnight. The opposition are hot, I've already mentioned that, so if I had to bet in this race I'd like to chance something with a rewarding price that I could bet e/w on and Binge Drinker is that horse.

3.10 2 mile 1 furlong International Hurdle

I've never been totally convinced about The New One; I don't think he jumps well enough to be a top top class hurdler and am once again looking to oppose him at his cramped odds here. He needs to be winning here, and winning well, to justify his position at the head of the Champion Hurdle betting but I think that the Nicky Henderson horse Vaniteux, receiving 8lbs in weight, could cause the odds on (8/15 shot) favorite a few concerns here. Vaniteux ran really well on the worst of the ground at Cheltenham last time out to finish 2nd in the hugely competitive Greatwood Hurdle off top weight, indeed he could well have won had he managed to get some fresher ground to make his challenge on and the better surface here will be more ideal. He jumped nicely there and Henderson has his yard in much better form that back in early November which is obviously in the selection's favor. The New One is rated 13lbs higher than Vaniteux and really should be winning on Saturday, however I'm taking a chance on the Greatwood runner up to cause an upset here.

3.45 2 mile 4 furlong 110 yard Relkeel Hurdle

Rock on Ruby will head the market here, as a previous Champion hurdle winner he has the class to make a real impact over an extended trip however connections would not be reverting to hurdles if his attempts at a fencing career had been more successful and I think he can prove vulnerable to an improving type here. I'll take a punt on a horse rated only 2lbs lower than ROR, thought highly enough to be sent off as favorite for the fixed brush hurdle shouldering a whopping 12 stone, in Volnay De Thaix. The selection was 4th that bad but that was with a huge weight, on bad ground and  over 3 miles -  a real stamina test! The step back in trip will see the Henderson horse to better effect, his best form is over this trip, and with Geraghty in the saddle you can be assured of a top ride. I'd rather take a bigger price on a 5 year old with definite improvement ahead of him rather than a 9 year old reverting from fences and Volnay De Thaix is the selection in the closing race, with Lac Fontana another danger but one who may find it too much to give weight to the field.

This man needs to be having a good day tomorrow for the blog!

Thanks very much for reading and be lucky if you have a bet!

I'll be back on Sunday with the usual weekend review

Alex

The Cheltenham December Meeting - Friday

The Cheltenham December meeting, a 2 day affair, starts tomorrow and as always for meetings at the home of Jumps Racing has some interesting horses running. I've got some fancies for the Friday card so let's get cracking and hopefully find some Christmas winners. Before we start however lets just check out all the UK Jumps trainers operating at an impressive strike race of 20% or greater in the past fortnight (thanks to Sportinglife.com for these great stats) so that we know which yards should be afforded even more respect this weekend.

rainer	Wins	Rides	Win %	Place	Place %
C L Tizzard	8	22	36.36	14	63.64
David Dennis	3	9	33.33	3	33.33
P F Nicholls	13	39	33.33	24	61.54
Mrs J Harrington	3	10	30.0	5	50.0
D G Bridgwater	3	10	30.0	5	50.0
A M Thomson	3	11	27.27	4	36.36
H Fry	3	11	27.27	5	45.45
Mrs S J Smith	6	23	26.09	12	52.17
W P Mullins	9	35	25.71	15	42.86
V R A Dartnall	3	12	25.0	4	33.33
R Tyner	5	20	25.0	7	35.0
J W Mullins	4	16	25.0	9	56.25
N J Henderson	8	32	25.0	13	40.63
T R George	4	17	23.53	7	41.18
N G Richards	3	13	23.08	6	46.15
D Pipe	8	36	22.22	12	33.33
A King	6	27	22.22	14	51.85
P J Hobbs	6	28	21.43	16	57.14

There are no surprises with shock big trainer omissions, Henderson, Nicholls, Hobbs, King and Pipe are all operating at a good strike rate, with Nicholls the best of these. However it looks like the Tizzard yard are absolutely flying currently so if you have an interest from this yard over the weekend put more on!

12.30 Cheltenham Novices Chase over 3 miles, 1 furlong 110 yards.

I really want to oppose King's Palace here, for all I expect him to be a very decent horse I don't want to have to take odds on about a runner in this competitive 4 runner field because all three with chase experience have won over the larger obstacles (King's Palace included) and the only one who doesn't comes from the red hot Nicholls stable who are well capable of schooling a horse so that it gets to the racecourse and jumps like a professional. Therefore I'm going with Sausalito Sunrise here to take advantage of an 8lbs swing in the weights from the last time these two met (where King's Palace was a 4 length winner) as he is a much more attractively priced 3/1. Tom O'Brien is this one's regular pilot so don't be put off that Johnson rides the stable's other horse, the selection has better form in the book and a proven ability to act round the course. with the weight swing in his advantage Sausalito Sunrise can gain revenge here at a nice price.

2.10 Cheltenham Handicap Chase over 3 miles 2 furlongs.

I'm siding with the top weight Hadrian's Approach here to take this for Nicky Henderson. Hadrian's Approach has an absolutely cracking record first time out, winning twice in the last three years first time up and only being done by a nose in the other, and bearing in mind this record Henderson must have targeted this race with him after pulling him from the Hennessy. This stamina test won't be an issue for the selection  and the likely better ground will also prove to his liking. With Geraghty taking the ride (encouraging as HA can have jumping issues) I'm confident that the top weight can come out victorious here to further enhance that wonderful record fresh.

3.15 Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle over 3 miles.

I'm siding with the hugely progressive Ulzana's Raid who has won on his last three starts, including victories over a shade over 3 miles to prove stamina and a win at the course last time out. The selection was staying on gamely on his win over the extended 3 mile trip at Ayr so a step back up to three miles after dropping to 21f last time out could bring about even more improvement. In a hot handicap I like the chances of this improving type who shows a very likable attitude at the business end of the race and is the selection at 9/2 here.

I'm going to chance the above three runners into a little Friday Trixie to keep me entertained through till the weekend, where we have day 2 of the Cheltenham weekend featuring the Relkeel Hurdle, the International Hurdle (with The New One out again) and the December Gold Cup so check back on Friday evening for the Saturday selections!

Thanks for reading!

Alex

A Wrap of the Horse Racing early week news

With some interesting stuff in the news at the early part of this week I thought I'd just wrap it up for any blog followers looking for a mid-week read. Just a quick round up of the King George press conference news and a look at the entries for Cheltenham this weekend and as always comments welcome.

Kempton 26th and 27th December - Interesting snippets

At the start of the week we had the William Hill King George Press conference and were treated to some very interesting soundbits; I'm sure you've read these elsewhere but I'll summarise the key points for us to look at all in one place

Menorah definitely goes for the King George and Tom O'Brien rides with Richard Johnson suspended. Menorah will have his best chance if the rain stays away.
Captain Chris  is only a 50/50 chance for the race having had an interrupted prep for the race whilst Wishful Thinking, fresh from his Peterborough Chase victory, could still turn up.
Simonsig is still a possibility for the race according to Nicky Henderson's assistant trainer Charlie Morlock. A 'very good chance' of making the race provided there are no more slip-ups in his preparation.
Colin Tizzard has his string in much better form now and Cue Card is bouncing at home. He heads for the race with the stable hoping for some decent ground.
One trainer wanting a bit of rain is Paul Nicholls who would need it soft for Silviniaco Conti otherwise he may head for the Lexus in Ireland, a race won by the trainer with Tidal Bay recently. Al Ferof  will be ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies at Kempton, while Noel Fehily will ride Conti.
Willie Mullins will send over Champagne Fever for the race as he tackles the 3 mile trip for the first time.
Interestingly John's Spirit has an entry for the Christmas cracker as Jonjo O'Neil looks to step him out of handicap company for the first time.
Eduard may represent the Nicky Richards stable but the trainer will only run his charge if granted good ground.

King George Betting - Odds courtesy of Oddschecker

Elsewhere on the card we have the Christmas Hurdle and Rich Ricci has confirmed this is the target for his exciting Faugheen. He is set to clash with Irving from the Nicholls camp and possibly one or both of Sign of a Victory and Vaniteux from the Henderson camp.
The Feltham Novices Chase over 3 miles could see Saphir Du Rheu bidding to give Paul Nicholls victory in the race, the obvious target according to his trainer. Sausalito Sunrise could be amongst the opposition having gone down to the impressive King's Palace at Cheltenham earlier this season.
Vibrato Valtat, an impressive Sandown winner at the weekend, will head to the Wayward Lad where he could re-oppose Henry VIII 2nd placer Dunraven Storm.

We look set to get ground no drier than good to soft according to Kempton Clerk of the Course Barney Clifford, with soft ground more likely given the forecast. Looks like Silviniaco will be staying in England over the Festive period!


Underwhelming Cheltenham International entries

We had the big race entries for the Cheltenham meeting this coming weekend announced on Tuesday and I must say I'm slightly underwhelmed. Only 16 featured in the decs for the big Handicap - the December Gold Cup -  with Eduardo Sol heading the weights on an official mark of 149. The market is headed at 3/1 by Caid Du Berlias who won the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in November and has only been raised a very lenient 5lbs for that success. Of those that would interest me in having an ante-post bet he is not one as I can't see him going off much shorter on the day.

I like the chances of Sound Investment here under top conditional jockey Sean Bowen, who steals an extremely handy 7lbs off is mount's back. Sound Investment remains on the same mark as when 2nd to No Buts last time out in a handicap at the Newbury Hennessy meeting and won on his penultimate start off a mark of 142 over this distance. Whilst the winner at Newbury re-opposes on Saturday he has been raised 10lbs and taking into account the jockeys claim there is a 17lbs swing in the weights from that day. Indeed Bowen's claim means that Sound Investment runs on Saturday effectively off his last winning mark. Bowen has delivered the horse to a 2nd place previously so looks to get on well with him and the selection will handle soft and better ground, useful when making a selection in advance. You can still get 12/1 on Sound Investment and that is my idea of an ante-post bet in this race.

The International Hurdle see's Champion Hurdle hopeful The New One back out after his Haydock re-appearance and heading the market at 4/9. Nicky Henderson has Vaniteux and Sign of a Victory engaged against the Nigel TD stable star, however you wouldn't imagine he will run both which will lessen the competitive nature of this race a good deal. However as long as one of the two line up TNO will have to perform well to take victory so we could see a little shortening of his odds for the Champion Hurdle in March if we see an impressive victory on Saturday. Mad Moose may turn up here, you never know though!

Will we see Mad Moose line up, and maybe even run, on Saturday?

The Relkeel Hurdle on the card is a more interesting race, for all it may not have the top end quality of the International. Rock on Ruby, Melodic Rendezvous (although he is engaged over fences on Friday), Dell 'Arca (last seasons Greatwood winner), Garde La Victoire (this years Greatwood winner) and Volnay De Thaix all make the potential line up a really competitive one. I'd take a punt on Dell 'Arca here, who could have served it up to Coneygree last time out at Newbury but for some poor jumps at his fences. Reverting back to the smaller obstacles should help and he has Cheltenham form in the book after his big handicap win last season. He will certainly be fit for a battle and at 12/1 makes a good bit of e/w appeal. Getting involved now, with the dead 12 runners still in, gives us favorable e/w terms to take advantage of.

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at 2.35 looks to probably have the most interesting of entries for the Saturday card, for all betting is not available yet. I've been following the Rebecca Curtis trained Binge Drinker all season and am fascinated to see how he copes with the step up in grade here. Parish Business (highly thought of by Aiden Coleman), Blaklion, Out Sam and Port Melon make for some top potential opposition and there will be plenty to take out of this race for the future.

Early December Weekend Reflections

A Sad Start

Before I start with my thoughts on the winners and runners out this weekend I must say I was gutted by the sad news regarding Oscar Whiskey and Ballbriggan, both horses losing their lives out on the track at Sandown and Aintree respectively. Oscar Whiskey in particular as he was a real favourite of mine, a prolific winner with a record of 16 wins from 28 starts and a multiple Grade 1 winner. My thoughts go out to connections of both horses.

Oscar Whiskey on his way to winning the Welsh Champion Hurdle. RIP

Saturday - Tingle Creek Day

Henderson with a treble on the card at Sandown, plus other around the country; Nicholls taking the big race of the day at the Esher track and nails a 59/1 Group 1 double...the old guard are certainly back! It was a great day down at Sandown and this is where I will start the review.

I was fortunate enough to see some great racing thanks to the kind Bet Racing Nation folk off whom I won 2 tickets, and it saw Sam Twiston-Davies and Paul Nicholls take their first Grade 1 race together as Dodging Bullets won a very open-looking Tingle Creek at 9/1, beating old boy Somersby who ran excellently from the front and Hinterland, who ran much better than on his season opener, possibly aided by the hood he wore first time up. The winner appeared to banish the doubters who questioned his resolution with this impressive victory; if Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre don't make it to Cheltenham (a very real possibility) then this race isn't far off the Champion Chase field and Dodging Bullets has beaten them all well on ground that wouldn't have suited. He was cut into 12/1 for Queen Mother glory come March but I'd be very wary of taking that price personally despite the impressive nature of this win as this horse always seems to produce his best form before the turn of the year. I'd want to see another decent run late Jan/early Feb time before I would commit to DB for any Cheltenham race.

The 2nd in the race, Somersby, produced his best run for a whilst going from the front but I wouldn't think there would be much more improvement to come out of the old timer for all this was another great run in the race. Hinterland was much improved from seasonal reappearance and Nicholls can be positive going forward with him; there are certainly Grade 2 races to be won with this one. Vukovar will be interesting on his next run as it did look like he needed this after a long break from the racecourse; will Fry let him take up his entry in the King George now or keep him to the 2 mile trip? Of the rest God's Own jumped very poorly, strange as previously he had been impressive in this department and Balder Succes didn't do anything obviously wrong but was well beaten back in 4th. God's Own looks set to step back into Novice company for the rest of this season which in my opinion is a smart move by Tom George. I've already touched upon the sad news that overshadowed this race for me and won't go into it again but there was nothing I'd really want to be backing from this field for Queen Mother glory yet.

The runners in the Tingle Creek coming round past the winning post

Elsewhere on the card The Champion Jockey AP McCoy rode a double on the card for JP as he won on Cup Final and Snake Eyes in the 2 handicap hurdles on the card. Vibrato Valtat received a great ride from Noel Fehily as he was delivered from off the pace to storm past the front running Dunraven Storm and Irish Saint in the Henry VIII Chase, a 2 mile chase for Arkle hopefuls. This was an absolute peach of a ride from Fehily as VV must be delivered late, something Sam TD got wrong at Cheltenham last time out, and the winner ran on very nicely up the Sandown hill which bodes well for Cheltenham. I really doubted VV's resolution and desire for a battle but I must say I was impressed here as he came from off the pace, had a little bumping match with the 2nd and 3rd and then stormed past them to win. He also seemed to be suited by the fast pace set by Dunraven Storm out in front, something he should also get in the Arkle, and 20/1 may not be the worst e/w bet as you could see him stalking out the back and staying on again in March. You can sense I am already eating a bit of humble pie after penning my doubts over Vibrato in this blog!

Nicholls looks set to step Irish Saint up in trip after he disappointed after going off as an odds-on favorite here as there didn't look to be any excuses for this one; the JLT is a possible target (16/1, miles too short). Court Minstrel finished a mile back and I'm not sure if anything will come out as a reason for this run. He won't have liked the ground but still ran a shocker.

The Champion Jockey in the paddock after his win on Cup Final

Up at Aintree Sam Waley-Cohen enhanced his excellent record around the National Fences as he stormed to victory on board the 13 year old Oscar Time (33/1 for Grand National glory). We also saw Holywell beaten again in a farce of a race I'd be wary of reading too much into as they missed out 9 of the 19 fences due to low sun, the bane of the jumps racing scene at the moment! Holywell unshipped his jockey Richie McLernon mid race, however for all I am not a fan of Holywell for the Gold Cup if you are on ante-post certainly don't go tearing up your ticket just yet. This horse is a spring horse, needs the blinkers on and really needs AP McCoy on board before we know he is going to run to his potential. If he turns up in March it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if that was where his sole victory of the season comes!

Ma Filleule ran a much better race than on her reappearance and traveled beautifully in this race. She is perhaps the one I would actually take out of this, for all Sam Winner was an impressive enough winner...at 50/1 could Ma Filleule be worth a speculative Gold Cup punt or am I just being attracted by the price here?

Finally on Saturday Clarcam paid Vautour a huge compliment as he hosed up over at Navan, jumping well and winning as he liked as. Vautour smashed this one by 8 lengths last time out...is it really wise to oppose the Willie Mullins chaser whatever race he fancies taking on at Cheltenham? I really hope it is the Arkle as I love seeing these top chasers taking the fences at high speed, it is a joy to watch and Vautour no doubt has the potential to be absolutely anything.

Sunday - Shock as Britain stages some decent action!

We had some really good racing on both shores on Sunday, making a welcome change from the usual 2nd class affair we English usually offer up on the day of rest. Why we don't make the most of the weekend, where the public are most available to go to the races, has long baffled me especially when compared to the stuff we get over in Ireland on a consistent basis. However this week was a pleasant exception to the rule as we had some top action from Kelso and Peterborough, as well as the top stuff from Punchestown and Cork.

Wishful Thinking came out on top of a good renewal of the Peterborough Chase, beating off Eduard (who was a close 2nd to Hennessy winner Many Clouds last time out) and Wonderful Charm (just denied by Don Cossack in Ireland previously) as he jumped superbly to take this 2m4f Grade 2 race. Philip Hobbs is having an amazing season and this was another demonstration of his training ability, with Richard Johnson getting him out in front and remaining that way for the entire distance. Given the way Hobbs seems to have turned Wishful Thinking around who would rule out a tilt at the Ryanair for which he is a 20/1 chance. Eduard may well have got closer, if not claimed victory, with a better jump at the last and Nicky Richards has a young improper on his hands who may well turn this form around later in the season as you would imagine he has more improvement to come that the winner. However there is no substitute for form in the book and I'd sooner take the 20/1 for Wishful Thinking than the 25/1 for Eduard.

One of my favourite horses Don Cossack delighted me as he took the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase over at Punchestown ahead of Boston Bob and Gold Cup 2014 winner Lord Windermere, although the latter was running over a trip shorter than ideal on seasonal re-apparance. However the Don looks another who has been reformed by his trainer this season, he is now three from three this season and at 8/1 he is my idea of the Ryanair winner come March. He has always no doubt been a talented animal, however has frustrated greatly at times but this season there are no signs of inconsistency and this was a really impressive victory. The King George was ruled out after the race, which makes me think connections will be keeping him to the Ryanair trip this season as if you will get 3 miles anywhere it should be at a course like Kempton, however given the potential Cheltenham targets the more sensible bet would be the 7/1 for DC to win any race at the Fez. Lord Windermere ran a very good race on reappearance, keeping on in the latter stages, and he is in danger of being hugely underestimated in the Gold Cup market at 16/1. He will certainly come on for this run and as I've said time and time previously the Gold Cup is a hugely open race yet again this year. I'd rather be on him at 16/1 than Holywell at 14/1 that's all I'm saying!

Don Cossack makes it 3/3 this season (Photo Alain Barr Racing Post)

Elsewhere on Sunday we saw another impressive showing from Black Hercules from the Willie Mullins yard as he made it 2/2 over timber, however when No More Heroes was withdrawn from this race early on Sunday it did appear to be something of a penalty kick. Obviously he was trimmed in the Cheltenham markets but I'm not sure how as he didn't have to beat much here (9/1 for the Albert Bartlett) and for all it was nice to see him jump round again if you hadn't backed him for a Cheltenham race before today I don't see why you would be now on the back of this.

Over at Cork Felix Younger was impressive as he beat a competitive field to land the Grade 2 chase there, with Twinlight a huge disappointment in the race. He beat a decent few horses here, the likes of Days Hotel, Alderwood and Mallowney over the 2 mile trip and has the chance to take another step up in form terms in the Dial a Bet chase over Christmas. An impressive showing there could see Felix make some waves in the Queen Mother Champion Chase perhaps although I don't think he is good enough myself. Grade 2 races are more this chaps level and it was a good victory today.

Mala Beach took advantage of an absolute howler of a jump by Un Atout early on in the Beginners Chase, it was actually impressive he managed to finish, as Mala Beach won on good ground for a change! The winner is definitely a better horse on soft or worse ground so this was a top effort and one full of encouragement going forward as we was really proficient in his jumping. I'm not sure if Cheltenham is the target as he has previous been quite ground dependent but wherever he goes next he will be of interest to me, however quotes of as short as 14/1 for the RSA make little appeal.

That's all for this weekend, it was a weekend with a few high quality races and definitely saw a few shake ups in the Cheltenham markets. No doubt we will see a lot more after next weekend, with the Cheltenham Showcase meeting taking place on Friday and Saturday, so check back this time next week for another weekend review.

Thanks for reading!

Alex

Looking ahead to a Saturday at Sandown

Sandown Park; the venue for Saturday's Preview

I'll be off to Sandown Park tomorrow courtesy of the top guys at BetracingNation (Give them a follow on Twitter @Betracingnation or look them up on Youtube for some examples of the excellent racing video they produce. Alternatively visit the website and watch the guys live in action!) after I managed to win a couple of tickets entering a competition on the Tuesday night live show....which you can see here Betracing Nation Tingle Creek Competition. As I'll be looking through the card anyway I though I may as well do a little blog preview, missing out the big race of the day - The Tingle Creek - as that is covered already in my ante-post piece published last Monday (Sandown Tingle Creek Ante-Post Focus) and if you read that blog you will understand why I'm pretty happy with my position in this race! So let's get cracking

12.20 2 miles 110 yards - Class 3 Novices Hurdle

Well the opener at Sandown doesn't look the easiest of affairs with the market headed by the Henderson stable debutante Clean Sheet. With trainer in red hot form at the moment (2 winners at the track on Friday) and McCoy booked Clean Sheet will surely only get shorter so I'll put up Masterplan as a tentative alternative selection. He would be a good deal shorter in the market if it weren't for his flop latest when pitched into a listed race at Cheltenham so the return to this lower class on hurdles debut should be more his level. Charlie Longsdon is ticking away nicely at the moment and at 9/1 he could provide a bit of e/w value in a tricky race.

12.50 2 miles 4 furlong Mares Handicap Hurdle

I'm keen on the Warren Greatrex trained mare Royal Moll with the Champ on board here. She was smashed in the market on her debut for the yard last time out where she only found one too good, the front two pulling clear of the remainder. this indicated the yard thought she was on a very good mark and the winner of that race has gone on to win since so should could have bumped into another well treated one there. Royal Moll goes on soft and heavy going and has won over 3 miles so this test, on ground that will be stamina sapping and the stiff uphill finish should be fine for her and she can provide the red-hot stable with another winner here.

1.20 2 mile 6 furlong Handicap Hurdle

This race is another tricky handicap where I'm going to put up Drum Valley as a tentative e/w selection - however I must say I doubt I will be playing in this race on the day! He ran well last time out when runner up in a 3 mile hurdle at Market Rasen and turns up here on the same mark. However the young conditional jockey Ben Ffrench Davis can claim a huge 10lbs off his back and how bad does a jockey have to be to not make a 10lbs claim value?? We know he arrive here a fit horse and I don't think there will be longer term handicap races in mind for this horse - he isn't good enough! This means though we can be assured the yard will be going all out to win this handicap and I'll take a chance that the 10lbs claim can help Drum Valley put up a good showing here.

1.50 2 mile Henry VIII Novices Chase

I'm keen to take Irish Saint here who has already won over the Sandown fences this season, a major positive in a Novice's chase where many a jumper can come undone over the tricky Railway fences down that back straight. His hurdling form is very smart and with that assured round of jumping on fencing debut LTO he is the one for me here. Court Minstrel has impressed so far but may not like the ground, whilst I don't think Vibrato Valtat is a horse who will like to battle to win his races. Dunraven Storm will give my selection the most to think about but I think Irish Saint can build on a promising debut over fences and take this Novice's Chase which has disappointingly cut up a lot since initial entries came out.

2.25 2 mile 110 yards Handicap Hurdle

I quote like Amore Alato here at a nice e/w price of 9/1. He has some very good Grade 2 winning form on soft ground, as well as a proven ability to go on worse ground and at testing tracks like Cheltenham which will stand him in good stead here. Richard Johnson can get him jumping well at the head of this field and front-runners are notoriously tricky to get past around Sandown, where the testing uphill finish can make it difficult to come from too far back. If he is fit and ready to go first time up he will certainly give you a game run for your money at a nice price.

3.00 Tingle Creek - Already previewed elsewhere on the blog

3.35 3 mile 5 furlong 110 yard London National Handicap Chase

The closing race on the card is a grueling long distance handicap chase which can go to trainer of the moment Oliver Sherwood, the stable on a huge high after the Hennessy win of Many Clouds last weekend. Kasbadali represents him here under last week's winning jockey Leighton Aspell and this race looks to have been the target for the selection for some time. He turns up here a fresh horse, which is how he displays his best form (stable starts are very spread out, won first time up last season) and is on the same mark as his 2nd placing lto at the Sandown track (winner has won since as well) making him look potentially well treated. The soft ground will not prove any trouble and as mentioned he has form around the track. The step up in trip is a slight unknown but seeing as this race appears to have been in Sherwood's mind for some time you assume the stable think it will be no problem to him, perhaps even a positive. Kasbadali the selection in the closing race.

Thanks for reading, it looks a cracking weekend and as usual I'll be back on Sunday with the weekend review. 

Good luck!

Ante-Post focus - Sandown Park

With the entries out for a top card at Sandown park this weekend what better way to start the week than with a good little ante-post preview to get us excited for the weekend! The absence of big guns Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy has lead to a bumper entry for the Tingle Creek with 18 featuring in the declarations on Monday. Balder Succes heads the betting at around the 3/1 mark, with oddschecker having the market look a little like this

Oddschecker Tingle Creek betting as of Monday 1st December

I like the fav in this market, he has some top Grade 1 Chase form from last season and made a nice debut this season when going down to God's Own trying to give the winner 5lbs. However the best of Balder Succes's form comes on the flat tracks like Aintree and Kempton, I'm not too sure if the testing nature of the Sandown track will suit Alan King's charge and it is enough of a doubt to make me look elsewhere for an ante-post bet. I definitely have him down as one of the more likely winners with the stable going along very nicely, however the market hasn't missed him and I want to try and find a horse it may have,

God's Own, 2nd fav, has been the subject of very positive soundbites from jockey Paddy Brennan today, who claims he is the fastest 2 mile chaser he has ever ridden and compares his attitude to the great Imperial Commander. As mentioned he was successful on seasonal debut but again has not been missed.

Oscar Whiskey marks the point at me for which the prices get interesting. At 9/1 if he can build on his Cheltenham Paddy Power run, which saw a much improved round of jumping, he has the class from his hurdling days, plus proven ability to act round Sandown, to put up a bold showing here. It may be that the faster pace he gets here will actually help his jumping, certainly his Cheltenham round gave hope to that theory anyway and as the sole representative from the Henderson yard it looks likely he will turn up; Willie Mullins has three very interesting contenders it is unlikely he will send them over and picking which one will represent him is difficult enough, ruling his stable out of my ante-post portfolio. Drying ground will play to Oscar's strengths as well and he is the first of two ante-post interests.

My second selection comes at a much bigger price in the shape of Harry Fry's Vukovar at 25/1. I know that Vukovar was well beaten in the JLT but he was hampered at the opening fence, knocking him out of his rhythm, and faded late after his early race disruptions. Previous to this he was only just beaten by the post-wind op version of Mr Mole, and has a Class 3 win over the Newbury fences on his CV. However look back at some of that French form, over just beyond the 2 mile trip, where he has beaten the likes of Dell' Arca who had the pace to win a Greatwood Hurdle; Certainly Vukovar won't lack for toe for this 2 mile trip. I like this horse for the season ahead and am hopeful that after a fairly long break Fry will have him readied first time up. On only his 4th chase start Vukovar his open to a tonne of improvement and at 25/1 I think his price is easily big enough to take a chance that he can find some on seasonal debut.

Tingle Creek Ante-Post Selections
Oscar Whiskey 9/1 Win Bet
Vukovar 25/1 e/w Bet

I will also touch briefly on the Henry VIII Novices Chase run at Sandown, over Tingle Creek trip, but restricted to novices earlier in the card.

Henry VIII Novices Chase betting, Oddschecker

I'll make the case for Sgt Reckless from the Mick Channon yard who I really like the chances of here. I love the link Channon and Hen Knight have made, with Knight bringing her jumping expertise to the game which is resulting in some of Channon's novice chasers really impressing with their jumping. Sgt Reckless has some top hurdle form from last season, only going down to the likes of Josses Hill (finished 2nd), Vautour (4th in Supreme) and Faugheen (In a Grade 1 at Punchestown) at the end of last season. For me that is the best hurdle form in the field and he has already shown a liking for fences when winning easily on debut at Uttoxeter this season. If Sgt Reckless can bring his hurdling class to Sandown on Saturday and impress again with his jumping he will be very hard to beat and is the selection for me here. If you take the 4/1 on offer now, with the field size as it is, you can bet e/w and get three places. However I really fancy Sgt Reckless to provide Mick Channon with a Grade 1 winner on Saturday.

Henry VIII Novices Chase
Sgt Reckless 4/1 Win Bet