The Arkle Chase 2015

For the the key question when looking at how to bet in this race is do you want to smash into a 4/7 favorite? By far the most likely winner of the race no doubt but plenty a skinny enough price considering the horse in questions, Un De Sceaux, has never done it round Cheltenham and has fallen in a 1/3rd of his starts over fences. Ok so he has never been given the chance to prove himself on the undulations of Prestbury park, his one fall was just lack of concentration on debut and he has never looked like falling since. He goes out from the front at a breakneck pace but seems able to maintain a pace that other top quality races can't even lie up with. Grade 1 winners have tried to take him on this season and have been swatted aside - see  Clarcam who was getting weight off Un De Sceaux and was beaten 15 lengths. For more evidence of the power of Un De Sceaux look at what he did to Grade 2 winner Gilgamboa who was smashed by this beast at Leopardstown and doesn't seem the same horse since. Why would you take this horse on if it isn't simply because you don't bet at odds on??? 

Last Year's Shock Arkle Winner Western Warhorse

Well lets start with the Cheltenham course, and the famous hill. Un De Sceaux, as mentioned, goes off at a serious clip. Watch any of his previous runs to see this and although proven over further that hill is going to test his stamina in a serious way. If Un De Sceaux gets lit up in any way by the huge Cheltenham occasion, goes off a bit too quick and turns into the home straight tiring things could get very interesting. Second is the testing Cheltenham fences considering Un De Sceaux has fallen before; there are 13 fences to be jumped on the way round this 2 mile test and UDS can't afford to let his concentration lapse like he did on debut. The thing is this obviously isn't his chasing debut, he has learned plenty about the game since then and I doubt we will see the same mistake twice. The more we look at this race the more it looks like we are playing for 2nd and 3rd place - that's if we get enough runners!

Hot Favorite Un De Sceaux

So who do we take to follow him home? If the Willie Mullins hotpot wasn't in this race it would be an ultra competitive renewal!. 

Vibrato Valtat, a reformed character over fences. Grade 1 winner this term and has won 4 of his 5 chase starts, the only defeat coming when given a poor ride by Sam TD at Cheltenham. Will love coming late off a strong pace so this race could be run to suit, giving him a big e/w chance. 

Clarcam - Smashed out of the part by Un De Sceaux at Cheltenham bit prior to that had looked very impressive when defeating the highly rated Vautour over Christmas. Will have the services of top young jockey Bryan Cooper and handles the Cheltenham track, won't be trying to track Un De Sceaux this time and should run better.

Josses Hill - A very high class hurdler, Cheltenham form also proven having come 2nd in the Supreme last year. However hasn't looked a natural over fences this season, only managing the sole win from 3 starts and not impressing with his jumping. However Barry Geraghty insists that the fast pace of the Arkle will bring out the best in this Henderson chaser and keeps the faith. Henderson's record with Chasers in the recent past is awful though and Josses Hill will have to improve massively on what we have seen over fences to get involved here.

Sgt Reckless - Pricewise selection, however has only run once over fences and comes into this off the back of a spin around the all weather. Did impress with his fencing however and has Cheltenham experience in the book. He is a seriously quick horse but does need good ground to even run to be honest.

Court Minstrel - Also needs good ground, he had impressed on his first two starts over fences this year before flopping in the Sandown mud last time out. He has won over the Cheltenham fences and in Paul Maloney will be ridden to get a place expertly, however hasn't been seen since before the turn of the year, could he lack recent match practice?

Ted Veale - a faller in last year's race but a previous festival handicap winner

Three Kingdoms - Needed an AP Masterclass to get the better of Solar Impulse in a Grade 2 latest and prior to that beaten by Vibrato Valtat.

Gods Own - Best performance of the season in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, not been as impressive since however he was competing outside of Novice company. Needs good ground, won't run if soft, but his experience will be helpful and could run well at a price.

Melodic Rendezvous - Good, solid hurdler who needed soft ground to be at his best. Not massively impressive thus far over fences and one who needs give in the ground. Even with his favored ground he flopped badly at Sandown latest and I would be surprised to see him line up.

I could go on but to be honest I don't think there is much point, instead I'll cut to the chase and give my 1-2-3 for the race. 

Right no prizes for originality but Un De Sceaux wins this is a hugely impressive manner. There isn't much more to say apart from the fact nothing can live with the pace he sets, he's trained by a master, ridden by a master and the bookies will be cheering to the rafters if they can get him beat. I just don't see it happening though and even at odds on you could argue that he rates a very good bet.

Willie Mullins, the trainer of Un De Sceaux

2nd up I'm going Vibrato Valtat. I think the pace put into this race by Un De Sceauz will be ideal for VV, who will creep along getting plenty of cover before being sent for home coming up the hill. While I can't see him troubling the winner I think 2nd is his for the taking.

Vibrato Valtat (left) on his way to winning at Kenpton over Christmas

Finally completing the front three I'll ignore the obvious claims of Clarcam and put up one at a price in Court Minstrel.  He was impressive round the Cheltenham fences on only his second chase start and the good ground that will hopefully greet us in March should help this horse put his Sandown effort behind him and complete the front three.

Court Minstrel could sneak 3rd place at a nice price

1) Un De Sceaux

2) Vibrato Valtat

3) Court Mistrel