Day 1 at Aintree and there are a right few races, some good Grade 1 action albeit not the most friendly e/w punting card. A lot of the races, well the first 4 anyway, are small fields. Indeed, with the Foxhunters coming in at 29 runners it has more runners than the first 4 races combined! But I've got a few selections and I'll detail those here, hopefully we can find some form ahead of the Grand National
Manifesto Novice's Chase
A 6 runner field to start us off, with a hot favourite in Top Notch, last seen chasing home Yorkhill in the JLT at Cheltenham. And you could argue if Yorkhill had turned up here he would be 3's on, therefore Top Notch is value. I think for sure he is the most likely winner, but at 6/5 I've my doubts about taking such a price, notably his long season. I'll look for something a bit fresher to take him on and will go for Flying Angel e/w, who was fairly fancied for the JLT himself but was pretty unlucky in running with fallers in front of him at vital times - watch it back he was basically brought to a standstill. Nigel Twiston-Davies is in better form than the rancid run he'd had prior to Cheltenham, having notched a few winners in recent times, and good ground will be fine. Could easily get us a little place here, or just bet him smaller stakes win only as an interest.
Juvenile Hurdle
This race does have a better e/w shape to it, but you are probably playing for 2nd and 3rd place behind hot fav, and supremely impressive Cheltenham winner Defi Du Seuil. Forth Bridge is the e/w selection here at around 16/1. He skipped Cheltenham so comes here fresh, has won his last 2 races including beating Project Bluebook (ran well in the Fred Winter) and will love this track and ground looking back at his form. With bookies paying 1/5 the odds first 3 you are getting 16/5 about Forth Bridge getting a place and that is more than fair given Divin Bear and Flying Tiger are his only real opposition for those places and they both come here off the back of a tough race in the Fred Winter.
The Bowl
Oh dear. This race is vile. 7 runners, 2 places e/w, the head of the market dominated by Cue Card (fell when beaten at Cheltenham) and Empire of Dirt (bit worried by the Gordon Elliott stable form given his price). But with only 2 places to aim at I'm really not keen on betting e/w. So I'll just put up 2 win only bets. 1 is the aforementioned Empire of Dirt who will definitely appreciate the step up back in trip, should be fine with the ground and the form of his Irish Gold Cup 2nd doesn't look too bad now with the winner since winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I'm held back from making him the only bet because Elliott seems to have hit a bit of a lull with his winners since Cheltenham though, so I'll throw another dart with Tea for Two, who Lizzie Kelly fell off early on in the Gold Cup thus avoiding any kind of hard race. I'd much rather this race be right handed when tipping this horse, but he is talented, a bit more of an up and comer as opposed to veterans Cue Card and Sinviniaco Conti, ground and trip fine, Williams in decent form and looks a large price at 16/1. Small stakes, 2 runners against the field rather than 1 e/w bet.
Aintree Hurdle
Again, dominated by Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D'Air so we look at an e/w angle. And again, there are only 6 runners so we only get 2 places. For me I'd just take My Tent or Yours without the favourite. The Tent comes here off a cracking run at Cheltenham, seems to be settling better this year which will give him more of a chance of staying this extended trip, is a course winner and was 2nd in this race to Annie Power last year. The New One should run his race, and is the main danger to my selection but we did beat him nicely at Cheltenham. I can't have Identity Thief, his confidence must be shot to pieces after his runs over fences this year, and the other 2 are not of the Tent's class. If Coleman can give this another good ride I think he can make it a JP 1-2 in the race.
Foxhunters
Not a race I know a huge amount about I confess. But Black Thunder would be a tentative e/w bet here under a very good jockey over these fences in Sam Waley-Cohen. He was pulled up at Cheltenham but I would hope a return to Aintree, he has run OK here before, could spark some improvement and he could be an e/w bet in a 29 runner field.
Red Rum Handicap
The last race I have a selection in, and it is my bet of the day at Aintree. Annoyingly the race only has 15 runners, but some bookies are paying 4 places still, so I put up Double W's here. it was quietly fancied before Cheltenham and was leading round the home turn but got found out by the 2 mile 4 trip and Cheltenham hill. Back down to 2 miles, on an easier track, can't see it out the first 4 and if you do bet with a bookie who pays 4 places looks a knocking e/w bet.
Day 1 Aintree
1.45 Flying Angel e/w
2.20 Forth Bridge e/w
2.50 Empire of Dirt and Tea for Two win only, split stakes
3.25 My Tent or Yours without the fav
4.00 Black Thunder e/w
4.40 Double W's e/w
Thursday, 6 April 2017
Monday, 3 April 2017
Grand National...Early selection!
Ok, nice and early here. And it's barely worth a blog, because I'm just posting my early thoughts on my fancy for the race. For sure I'll have other bets in the race, but one horse I am really keen on is currently available at 50/1 and definitely makes the line up. And that horse is Just a Par...
Just A Par is miles too big a price at 50/1 in my opinion for the Grand National. He is a classy horse which you need for this race. One stat I found was that the last 12 winners of the Grand National had all won a race at least at Class 2 level before winning the big one. Well, Just a Par has winning form at Class 1 level over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Sandown, which is a testing track and really puts pressure on stamina. I was actually at the track that day and the horse flew home, I don't think stamina will be a problem here.
He actually ran in the race last year, was 15th but I feel the ground was possibly too soft, still encouraging he got round. The good surface on offer this week should be much more to his liking and he comes here off the back of a win in early March, which is encouraging and ensures he will make the line up.
Harry Cobden is a good jockey who takes the ride and at 50/1 he is worth an e/w bet for sure .
I've backed him at 40/1 with betvictor for the 6 places e/w, because other bookies will only give 4 or 5 at a push so sightly shorter odds worth it for the 6 places.
Come on Just a Par!
Just A Par is miles too big a price at 50/1 in my opinion for the Grand National. He is a classy horse which you need for this race. One stat I found was that the last 12 winners of the Grand National had all won a race at least at Class 2 level before winning the big one. Well, Just a Par has winning form at Class 1 level over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Sandown, which is a testing track and really puts pressure on stamina. I was actually at the track that day and the horse flew home, I don't think stamina will be a problem here.
He actually ran in the race last year, was 15th but I feel the ground was possibly too soft, still encouraging he got round. The good surface on offer this week should be much more to his liking and he comes here off the back of a win in early March, which is encouraging and ensures he will make the line up.
Harry Cobden is a good jockey who takes the ride and at 50/1 he is worth an e/w bet for sure .
I've backed him at 40/1 with betvictor for the 6 places e/w, because other bookies will only give 4 or 5 at a push so sightly shorter odds worth it for the 6 places.
Come on Just a Par!
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| Just A Par (nearest) in The bet365 Gold Cup Chase which he won |
Tuesday, 14 March 2017
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday Cheltenham
Unfortunately, or probably fortunately for my wallet, I don't blog full time so have had to condense my fancies for the remaining days of Cheltenham into one post. So here we go...
Neptune Novices Hurdle
Unless Let's Dance goes for this, with the absence of Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf will be a fairly strong favourite. He is unbeaten in 4 races, including a super impressive win the last day at Haydock, and boasts an impressive blend of speed and stamina. However, Willoughby Court, a winner of his last 2 races over this distance, comes here with stable confidence reportedly very high and is a much more backable 12/1. Take him e/w
Cross Country
The classy horse in this race is Cause of Clauses, and he is the selection. He has past form at Cheltenham, albeit not over these unique fences, but last year he did win the Kim Muir under Jamie Codd, who will take the ride here. An excellent booking, and Cause of Clauses has reportedly schooled over these type of fences recently. He has plenty of stamina under his bonnet, and coupled with his classy pedigree (he has been contesting much better races than this) he is the selection to overcome Cantlow, the favourite who does not always put it all in at the finish.
Fred Winter
Here I like the chances of Project Bluebook who is trained by John Quinn, a master trainer of these young juvenile hurdlers. I believe Quinn had earmarked this one fro the Triumph but his lenient mark has tempted him down the handicap route and we should take the hint. Brian Hughes gave him a shocker of a ride last time out, and he has admitted as much on the preview circuit, but prior to that he has been upwardly mobile and at least that defeat has ensured his mark is more fair. Brian gets a great chance to make amends and I expect the top jockey in the North to give the selection a far better ride this time! Overpriced as an e/w chance
Stayers Hurdle
I love Jezki for this race, and I am more than willing to take on one of the bankers of the festival here. Jezki is pure class, he has won a Champion hurdle but looking at his breeding he really should appreciate this 3 mile test, especially considering his advancing years. Last time out the ground was shocking bad, and he may well have bounced, so ignore that and focus on the very impressive comeback the time before. He has the speed to sit in and pounce if the race gets tactical, the stamina (he is a 3 mile winner already) if it is an out and out test and at 7/1 he looks an e/w steal.
Brown Advisory Plate
Diamond King heads the market having won the Coral Cup at the fez last year off a 1 lbs lower mark. However, he is well short enough and I'll put up another who has been heavily tipped on the preview circuit in Sizing Codelco. He hasn't been a massive success so far this year, but he did only narrowly go down to Top Notch, fancied for the JLT 2 runs ago before finding 26 furlongs much to far a trip last time out. He has since been put away and his handicap mark protected for this race, and is actually 1 lbs lower than he started the season. Sneaky from Mr Tizzard and I expect him to make the frame.
Mares Novice
If Lets Dance turns up here have the lot on. She is an absolute class apart and would have given the boys a race if she were allowed to take her chance in the Neptune. But with trip fine and this opposition not a patch on her take Lets Dance to make it 5 wins on the bounce. And Willie Mullins' love for these Mares only races will grow even more.
Kim Muir
I really like one here, and that horse is Mal Dini. A winner here last year, important festival form, he has not been in the same form this season. BUT.....The tongue-tie he wore to victory in the Pertemps Final last season hasn't been seen this season but is crucially seen now, and he also has not had some good ground which he likes. Again he gets his ground. For me has been crying out for a step up in trip....which also arrives here. Excellent jockey booking, this really looks like a plan coming together for me. Awfully tempting
Triumph Hurdle
I can see the Irish kicking off Gold Cup day with a winner in the shape of the Gordon Elliott trained Mega Fortune, fresh off the back of a win last time out when Elliott finally gave up trying to get him a handicap mark for the Fred Winter. We saw just how much talent this horse has when winning at Leopardstown last time out, showing stamina that will prove crucial here and reversing form with Bapaume. This race is usually run at a fair lick, and I can see Mega Fortune staying on up the hill and winning this.
Gold Cup
This is still a really interesting race, even without Thistlecrack. Cue Card will bring the house down if he wins where as Native River stays as long as the mother-in-law at your house. But the one I actually fancy is the runner up in the previous 2 Gold Cups in Djakadam. He has been beat by Coneygree and Don Cossack in the blue riband event, so clearly loves the track, trip and test the Gold Cup throws up, and for my money there is nothing that good in the race this year. Djakadam will be ridden by the masterful Ruby Walsh, is the subject of hugely positive vibes at home and looks set to finally give Willie Mullins the Gold Cup he craves. A smashing bet at 4/1, cannot see him out the frame. People will point to his 2 defeats the last twice, but he has come to the Gold Cup a very young horse, grown up in it and now finally I think it is his time to shine.
Grand Annual
I'm putting up a former Champion Chase winner who is tumbling down the weights and looks on a very attractive mark. Dodging Bullets is my selection for the final race of the festival - he goes well at Cheltenham, will love this ferociously run 2 miles and I think with these conditions in his favour, and his confidence coming back according to Sam Twiston-Davis, he can bounce back to form and send us packing with a winner.
Neptune Novices Hurdle
Unless Let's Dance goes for this, with the absence of Finians Oscar, Neon Wolf will be a fairly strong favourite. He is unbeaten in 4 races, including a super impressive win the last day at Haydock, and boasts an impressive blend of speed and stamina. However, Willoughby Court, a winner of his last 2 races over this distance, comes here with stable confidence reportedly very high and is a much more backable 12/1. Take him e/w
Cross Country
The classy horse in this race is Cause of Clauses, and he is the selection. He has past form at Cheltenham, albeit not over these unique fences, but last year he did win the Kim Muir under Jamie Codd, who will take the ride here. An excellent booking, and Cause of Clauses has reportedly schooled over these type of fences recently. He has plenty of stamina under his bonnet, and coupled with his classy pedigree (he has been contesting much better races than this) he is the selection to overcome Cantlow, the favourite who does not always put it all in at the finish.
Fred Winter
Here I like the chances of Project Bluebook who is trained by John Quinn, a master trainer of these young juvenile hurdlers. I believe Quinn had earmarked this one fro the Triumph but his lenient mark has tempted him down the handicap route and we should take the hint. Brian Hughes gave him a shocker of a ride last time out, and he has admitted as much on the preview circuit, but prior to that he has been upwardly mobile and at least that defeat has ensured his mark is more fair. Brian gets a great chance to make amends and I expect the top jockey in the North to give the selection a far better ride this time! Overpriced as an e/w chance
Stayers Hurdle
I love Jezki for this race, and I am more than willing to take on one of the bankers of the festival here. Jezki is pure class, he has won a Champion hurdle but looking at his breeding he really should appreciate this 3 mile test, especially considering his advancing years. Last time out the ground was shocking bad, and he may well have bounced, so ignore that and focus on the very impressive comeback the time before. He has the speed to sit in and pounce if the race gets tactical, the stamina (he is a 3 mile winner already) if it is an out and out test and at 7/1 he looks an e/w steal.
Brown Advisory Plate
Diamond King heads the market having won the Coral Cup at the fez last year off a 1 lbs lower mark. However, he is well short enough and I'll put up another who has been heavily tipped on the preview circuit in Sizing Codelco. He hasn't been a massive success so far this year, but he did only narrowly go down to Top Notch, fancied for the JLT 2 runs ago before finding 26 furlongs much to far a trip last time out. He has since been put away and his handicap mark protected for this race, and is actually 1 lbs lower than he started the season. Sneaky from Mr Tizzard and I expect him to make the frame.
Mares Novice
If Lets Dance turns up here have the lot on. She is an absolute class apart and would have given the boys a race if she were allowed to take her chance in the Neptune. But with trip fine and this opposition not a patch on her take Lets Dance to make it 5 wins on the bounce. And Willie Mullins' love for these Mares only races will grow even more.
Kim Muir
I really like one here, and that horse is Mal Dini. A winner here last year, important festival form, he has not been in the same form this season. BUT.....The tongue-tie he wore to victory in the Pertemps Final last season hasn't been seen this season but is crucially seen now, and he also has not had some good ground which he likes. Again he gets his ground. For me has been crying out for a step up in trip....which also arrives here. Excellent jockey booking, this really looks like a plan coming together for me. Awfully tempting
Triumph Hurdle
I can see the Irish kicking off Gold Cup day with a winner in the shape of the Gordon Elliott trained Mega Fortune, fresh off the back of a win last time out when Elliott finally gave up trying to get him a handicap mark for the Fred Winter. We saw just how much talent this horse has when winning at Leopardstown last time out, showing stamina that will prove crucial here and reversing form with Bapaume. This race is usually run at a fair lick, and I can see Mega Fortune staying on up the hill and winning this.
Gold Cup
This is still a really interesting race, even without Thistlecrack. Cue Card will bring the house down if he wins where as Native River stays as long as the mother-in-law at your house. But the one I actually fancy is the runner up in the previous 2 Gold Cups in Djakadam. He has been beat by Coneygree and Don Cossack in the blue riband event, so clearly loves the track, trip and test the Gold Cup throws up, and for my money there is nothing that good in the race this year. Djakadam will be ridden by the masterful Ruby Walsh, is the subject of hugely positive vibes at home and looks set to finally give Willie Mullins the Gold Cup he craves. A smashing bet at 4/1, cannot see him out the frame. People will point to his 2 defeats the last twice, but he has come to the Gold Cup a very young horse, grown up in it and now finally I think it is his time to shine.
Grand Annual
I'm putting up a former Champion Chase winner who is tumbling down the weights and looks on a very attractive mark. Dodging Bullets is my selection for the final race of the festival - he goes well at Cheltenham, will love this ferociously run 2 miles and I think with these conditions in his favour, and his confidence coming back according to Sam Twiston-Davis, he can bounce back to form and send us packing with a winner.
Sunday, 12 March 2017
Cheltenham Tuesday
It's almost here, the greatest 4 days in the jumps racing year; starting with arguably the best day of them all in Cheltenham Tuesday. With the Supreme Novice's Hurdle, the Arkle, the Champion Hurdle and the Mares Hurdle we have 4 top quality Grade 1 races, supplemented by the 4 miler and 2 fiendishly tricky handicaps.
Supreme
What a tough race to kick us off with. The only good thing for us as punters is that with the huge number of bookmaker offers available you really shouldn't be losing on this race. But which horse to go forward with? Melon? No, could be very good but very inexperienced with only 1 race over hurdles under his bonnet and a huge reputation to carry. Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes ran extremely well in the Betfair but I'd expect quite a few of these horses to have done what they did with those marks, and the rumours of a virus in the NTD yard are also offputting. No idea where Moon Racer has been for the last few months either so passing him over. In fact, with all the bookie offers I'd be tempted by one at a big old price in Beyond Conceit for Nicky Henderson. He won last time out despite being green as grass, pulling like a train and only just getting on top over 2 miles 4 furlongs at Ascot. However, I think this could be a different proposition. I'm convinced a strongly run 2 miles to help him settle, with the Cheltenham hill to come at the end to bring stamina into play, and possibly a hood on to again help him settle will bring out the best in him. At the price you can have a nice little e/w bet, safe in the comfort blanket of various bookie money back offers.
Arkle
This should be a procession for Altior, and we should take the opportunity just to watch him win in style here. However, if you want a bet and don't fancy betting £7 to win £2 then have a look for something to follow him home. Charbel will be popular with some, having been in the process of making Altior actually try prior to belting the final fence on his previous start at Sandown. His absence since December will be a concern to some though. I actually quite like a last time out faller here in the shape of Royal Caviar for the Walsh/Mullins team. He would have won the last day had he not taken a nasty fall at the last, but the fact he comes here would indicate Mullin's is happy he is over that. He has been a nice winner of his first chase start and it is rare you get to back a Willie Mullins trained, Ruby Walsh ridden horse at these kind of odds at Cheltenham. Ruby will be sensible, like his class ride on West Approach a few months ago when he rode that horse to place, I think Royal Caviar will be given a ride that maximises his chance of following Altior home rather than beat him and he looks a decent little e/w bet here.
Ultima Chase
My fancy here is towards the head of the market, but this horse just absolutely loves Cheltenham and the selection is Noble Endeavour. He was only just touched off in the Martin Pipe, looked like he would be bang there in the 4 miler last year only to fall 2 out and clearly just comes alive at the place. He has been trained for this race and his trainer Gordon Elliott is full of positive vibes for him. Last time out Noble Endeavour, with Davy Russell on top who gets the ride here, beat The Crafty Butcher and has been kept fresh since specifically for this race. Prior to that he was not too far behind Gold Cup or Ryanair bound Empire of Dirt, certainly not bad form, and Gordon must feel like he is on a very nice mark. I fully expect him to take advantage here with trip, ground and track to suit
Champion Hurdle
No Faugheen, no Annie Power...no true Champion??? That isn't true, but what is true is this race is an exceptionally open Championship race for once. JP McManus looks to hold a strong hand, with Buveur D'Air, who ran so well in an exceptionally strong Supreme last year, reverting from fences to tackle this race accompanied by Yanworth, a winner of the Christmas Hurdle and My Tent or Yours, somehow beaten in the Supreme Novices a few years back by Champagne Fever. However, my selection is a horse who has looked a different animal this year, has won his last 2 Grade 1 races and looks to have the best form in the book from the 20216-17 season in Petit Mouchoir. Gigginstown rely on this horse, interesting given the vibes about possibly supplementing Tombstone, and the fact he is an uncomplicated horse who can go from the front, won't be daunted by pressure from other horses certainly appears to have the stamina to get up the hill. At around 5/1, Petit Mouchoir to me looks an e/w bet to nothing.
Mares Hurdle
I did not think we would be seeing star mares Vroom Vroom mag and Limini clash here given Rich Ricci owns the both of them and it would surely, if he was dead confident on the form of one of them, make sense to win this race with that horse and target an alternate race with the other? Spread his riches around so to speak? Because he looks to send both here it makes me think confidence cannot be supreme in either. The twice that Limini hasn't had a long break from racing she disappointed so with only 20 days between her last race and this race today I'm keen to oppose, and Vroom Vroom Mag was savage disappointing at Doncaster last time out so I think the play is to look elsewhere here. And the bet I would suggest is Colin's Sister e/w for the Fergal O'Brien team. This mare has won her last 4 races, including on a variety of ground but all around this 2 mile 4 furlong trip, and looks to be going the right way and fully deserves to take her chance in this race. Paddy Brennan will take the ride, as he has for her previous 4 wins, and I think at 25/1 she could well run into a place here.
National Hunt Chase
This 4 mile race will clearly put a premium on stamina, and the fact these horses are ridden by amateur riders adds further intrigue to the race. Held this year in memory of JT McNamara, the jockey who sadly lost his life after initially being paralysed after a fall at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. JP McManus will be keen to win this race bearing that in mind, but I don't really fancy the chances of Edwulf making it over all of these fences. A Genie In Abottle looks a worthy favourite, and top jockey Jamie Codd was booked early for the ride, but he is short enough in the market now and I'll look for a bit of a bigger price e/w. Martello Tower is the one who catches my eye, the 2015 Albert Bartlett winner and a horse who earlier in the season actually beat A Genie In Abottle. He has shown nothing since, but the yard have shown a few signs of a bit of form recently and if the return to Cheltenham can spark a revival he looks to have the talent to win this race, and certainly place given the stamina associated with Albert Bartlett winners.
Close Brothers Handicap Chase
Ok, last race on the card, a tricky little handicap. Not where you want to be trying to win money back if you are down on the day, so let's hope for the best! Favourites don't have a great record in the race, with only 1 winner in the last ten years, so we can be encouraged to look away from Foxtail Hill (again, worrying if you fancy him given the vibes about the yard's form). I like one for the North here in Double W's for Malcom Jefferson and Brian Hughes. 140 looks a fair enough mark given he has won off 135 earlier in the year, and he was 2nd in January off 1 lbs lower, and you fancy the trainer will have saved him for this race since then. Brian Hughes has mentioned him in positive terms in the preview nights since then and he will do for me at a nice e/w price in the closing race.
Thanks for reading and I'd love to hear your thoughts on the opening day of the greatest 4 days Jumps racing in the calendar
Supreme
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| Here they go... |
What a tough race to kick us off with. The only good thing for us as punters is that with the huge number of bookmaker offers available you really shouldn't be losing on this race. But which horse to go forward with? Melon? No, could be very good but very inexperienced with only 1 race over hurdles under his bonnet and a huge reputation to carry. Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes ran extremely well in the Betfair but I'd expect quite a few of these horses to have done what they did with those marks, and the rumours of a virus in the NTD yard are also offputting. No idea where Moon Racer has been for the last few months either so passing him over. In fact, with all the bookie offers I'd be tempted by one at a big old price in Beyond Conceit for Nicky Henderson. He won last time out despite being green as grass, pulling like a train and only just getting on top over 2 miles 4 furlongs at Ascot. However, I think this could be a different proposition. I'm convinced a strongly run 2 miles to help him settle, with the Cheltenham hill to come at the end to bring stamina into play, and possibly a hood on to again help him settle will bring out the best in him. At the price you can have a nice little e/w bet, safe in the comfort blanket of various bookie money back offers.
Arkle
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| Could Altior produce a Sprinter Sacre like performance? |
This should be a procession for Altior, and we should take the opportunity just to watch him win in style here. However, if you want a bet and don't fancy betting £7 to win £2 then have a look for something to follow him home. Charbel will be popular with some, having been in the process of making Altior actually try prior to belting the final fence on his previous start at Sandown. His absence since December will be a concern to some though. I actually quite like a last time out faller here in the shape of Royal Caviar for the Walsh/Mullins team. He would have won the last day had he not taken a nasty fall at the last, but the fact he comes here would indicate Mullin's is happy he is over that. He has been a nice winner of his first chase start and it is rare you get to back a Willie Mullins trained, Ruby Walsh ridden horse at these kind of odds at Cheltenham. Ruby will be sensible, like his class ride on West Approach a few months ago when he rode that horse to place, I think Royal Caviar will be given a ride that maximises his chance of following Altior home rather than beat him and he looks a decent little e/w bet here.
Ultima Chase
My fancy here is towards the head of the market, but this horse just absolutely loves Cheltenham and the selection is Noble Endeavour. He was only just touched off in the Martin Pipe, looked like he would be bang there in the 4 miler last year only to fall 2 out and clearly just comes alive at the place. He has been trained for this race and his trainer Gordon Elliott is full of positive vibes for him. Last time out Noble Endeavour, with Davy Russell on top who gets the ride here, beat The Crafty Butcher and has been kept fresh since specifically for this race. Prior to that he was not too far behind Gold Cup or Ryanair bound Empire of Dirt, certainly not bad form, and Gordon must feel like he is on a very nice mark. I fully expect him to take advantage here with trip, ground and track to suit
Champion Hurdle
No Faugheen, no Annie Power...no true Champion??? That isn't true, but what is true is this race is an exceptionally open Championship race for once. JP McManus looks to hold a strong hand, with Buveur D'Air, who ran so well in an exceptionally strong Supreme last year, reverting from fences to tackle this race accompanied by Yanworth, a winner of the Christmas Hurdle and My Tent or Yours, somehow beaten in the Supreme Novices a few years back by Champagne Fever. However, my selection is a horse who has looked a different animal this year, has won his last 2 Grade 1 races and looks to have the best form in the book from the 20216-17 season in Petit Mouchoir. Gigginstown rely on this horse, interesting given the vibes about possibly supplementing Tombstone, and the fact he is an uncomplicated horse who can go from the front, won't be daunted by pressure from other horses certainly appears to have the stamina to get up the hill. At around 5/1, Petit Mouchoir to me looks an e/w bet to nothing.
Mares Hurdle
I did not think we would be seeing star mares Vroom Vroom mag and Limini clash here given Rich Ricci owns the both of them and it would surely, if he was dead confident on the form of one of them, make sense to win this race with that horse and target an alternate race with the other? Spread his riches around so to speak? Because he looks to send both here it makes me think confidence cannot be supreme in either. The twice that Limini hasn't had a long break from racing she disappointed so with only 20 days between her last race and this race today I'm keen to oppose, and Vroom Vroom Mag was savage disappointing at Doncaster last time out so I think the play is to look elsewhere here. And the bet I would suggest is Colin's Sister e/w for the Fergal O'Brien team. This mare has won her last 4 races, including on a variety of ground but all around this 2 mile 4 furlong trip, and looks to be going the right way and fully deserves to take her chance in this race. Paddy Brennan will take the ride, as he has for her previous 4 wins, and I think at 25/1 she could well run into a place here.
National Hunt Chase
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| RIP John Thomas McNamara |
This 4 mile race will clearly put a premium on stamina, and the fact these horses are ridden by amateur riders adds further intrigue to the race. Held this year in memory of JT McNamara, the jockey who sadly lost his life after initially being paralysed after a fall at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. JP McManus will be keen to win this race bearing that in mind, but I don't really fancy the chances of Edwulf making it over all of these fences. A Genie In Abottle looks a worthy favourite, and top jockey Jamie Codd was booked early for the ride, but he is short enough in the market now and I'll look for a bit of a bigger price e/w. Martello Tower is the one who catches my eye, the 2015 Albert Bartlett winner and a horse who earlier in the season actually beat A Genie In Abottle. He has shown nothing since, but the yard have shown a few signs of a bit of form recently and if the return to Cheltenham can spark a revival he looks to have the talent to win this race, and certainly place given the stamina associated with Albert Bartlett winners.
Close Brothers Handicap Chase
Ok, last race on the card, a tricky little handicap. Not where you want to be trying to win money back if you are down on the day, so let's hope for the best! Favourites don't have a great record in the race, with only 1 winner in the last ten years, so we can be encouraged to look away from Foxtail Hill (again, worrying if you fancy him given the vibes about the yard's form). I like one for the North here in Double W's for Malcom Jefferson and Brian Hughes. 140 looks a fair enough mark given he has won off 135 earlier in the year, and he was 2nd in January off 1 lbs lower, and you fancy the trainer will have saved him for this race since then. Brian Hughes has mentioned him in positive terms in the preview nights since then and he will do for me at a nice e/w price in the closing race.
Thanks for reading and I'd love to hear your thoughts on the opening day of the greatest 4 days Jumps racing in the calendar
Sunday, 19 February 2017
Cheltenham in almost 3 weeks time!
Well, with Cheltenham a matter of weeks away I thought I'd better crack the blog machine back into action and outline my early fancies for a few of the races. I'd love to hear your thoughts, agree or disagree, and hopefully we can help each other on the road to some Cheltenham winnings! Although the Handicap entries are not out yet, which makes things a bit tricky, I've looked at 3 races on day 1 of the festival to make a nice little e/w treble!
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Well, one thing is for sure and that is I do not want to back ante-post favourite Melon at 7/2, especially after the form of his debut win was let down at Navan as Broken Soul, the 2nd that day, failed to fire in a maiden hurdle. Moon Racer has quite an absence (again) to overcome, Ballyandy is quite interesting of the market leaders but I actually like one at a big price here, and would advise going NRNB for this one as Nicky Henderson has said he may go to the Neptune. Beyond Conceit for me is a decent little e/w bet at 25/1. He was out that the weekend at Ascot, and never looked like winning until the closing stages, pulling like a train and refusing to settle. The fact he won impressed me, and he certainly shaped as if he will love the Cheltenham Hill in just over 3 weeks time. If Nicky sticks a hood on him and it helps him settle a bit better, buried in the pack I could see Beyond Conceit picking a few rivals off up the hill and certainly rewarding e/w backers.
Arkle
Altior should win this on the bridle, especially with Yorkhill likely to go for the JLT, Identity Thief probably not making the festival and the rest certainly not up to Altior's standard, or anywhere near it. However, one who is an assured jumper, has some good form in the book and should be going for the race is Ball D'Arc for Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown Stud. He was a cosy winner of a Grade 3 LTO at Navan, his rival in the market falling, but with the owners not having anything obvious for this race now I hope they may take a punt that Ball D'Arc could run with credit for them
Champion Hurdle
Looks a super open race; the favourite Buveur Dair was a ready winner at Sandown on his return to hurdles from fences but quite what that form is worth I'm not so sure. Petit Mouchoir is a more attractive bet at the head of the market as he should arguably be unbeaten this season and looks a massively improved character. I feel his form is underrated, perhaps still being judged on what he achieved, or didn't, last season but you must ignore that. 5/1 is fair given the open nature of the race and the fact he brings the best form to the table.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Well, one thing is for sure and that is I do not want to back ante-post favourite Melon at 7/2, especially after the form of his debut win was let down at Navan as Broken Soul, the 2nd that day, failed to fire in a maiden hurdle. Moon Racer has quite an absence (again) to overcome, Ballyandy is quite interesting of the market leaders but I actually like one at a big price here, and would advise going NRNB for this one as Nicky Henderson has said he may go to the Neptune. Beyond Conceit for me is a decent little e/w bet at 25/1. He was out that the weekend at Ascot, and never looked like winning until the closing stages, pulling like a train and refusing to settle. The fact he won impressed me, and he certainly shaped as if he will love the Cheltenham Hill in just over 3 weeks time. If Nicky sticks a hood on him and it helps him settle a bit better, buried in the pack I could see Beyond Conceit picking a few rivals off up the hill and certainly rewarding e/w backers.
Arkle
Altior should win this on the bridle, especially with Yorkhill likely to go for the JLT, Identity Thief probably not making the festival and the rest certainly not up to Altior's standard, or anywhere near it. However, one who is an assured jumper, has some good form in the book and should be going for the race is Ball D'Arc for Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown Stud. He was a cosy winner of a Grade 3 LTO at Navan, his rival in the market falling, but with the owners not having anything obvious for this race now I hope they may take a punt that Ball D'Arc could run with credit for them
Champion Hurdle
Looks a super open race; the favourite Buveur Dair was a ready winner at Sandown on his return to hurdles from fences but quite what that form is worth I'm not so sure. Petit Mouchoir is a more attractive bet at the head of the market as he should arguably be unbeaten this season and looks a massively improved character. I feel his form is underrated, perhaps still being judged on what he achieved, or didn't, last season but you must ignore that. 5/1 is fair given the open nature of the race and the fact he brings the best form to the table.
Saturday, 24 December 2016
Boxing Day Bonanza
Well I couldn't resist, despite not quite having the time to blog during term time the absolute feast of horse racing on Boxing Day has me dusting off the blogging fingertips and writing a small preview of some of the racing on the 26th December
1.05 Wincanton
Dusky Lark is the pick over at Wincanton in this 4 runner race. He finished second at Kempton and had been off the track for 200 days which was no mean feat. He looked a bit ring rusty and didn’t jump as well as he can but that is surely to be expected given that absence, after all there is only so well you can test them at home. I certainly think he is on a winning mark and he showed the benefit of that run when running close behind a very impressive winner in Poker School Ascot in early December. Will love some good winter ground according to the trainer and can finally get his head in front here.
1.30 Kempton
Sizing Tennessee has run a couple of excellent races for Colin Tizzard in Novice company and come up against some top horses in O O Seven and Whisper. Off a mark of 139 he is pretty interesting now sent handicapping in a field where there are no stand out horses IMO. Interestingly, Aidan Coleman reported that Sizing Tennessee jumped out the the right somewhat last time out so Kempton should help him post an improved performance in that regard. However, if Dusky Lark bolts up in the 1.05 at Wincanton then Poker School will have to be given maximum respect here so perhaps wait and see that the Lark does first!
1.55 Down Royal
We head over to Ireland for the 2nd bet and it is The Storyteller in this maiden hurdle. The form of his last run, a 2nd place to Monalee, is working out well with that horse going on to split Death Duty and Invitation Only in a hurdle at Navan last weekend, some very good form. That was only his 2nd run over hurdles, he was an unlucky faller in his first race when going very well, but the run last time out showed that has left no damage fortunately. I fancy The Storyteller to make it 3rd time lucky here.
2.05 Kempton
I reckon Amore Alato could be worth a right bet in the Novice Chase at Kempton (12/1 atm). He got off the mark first time out this season when making most of the running to land a Listed intermediate chase at Sandown seven weeks ago, and he usually comes on for the run looking at his form so should improve for that run. I also think this 3 mile trip should help, the trainer has said going 3 miles has been the long term plan but they wanted to give him a bit more experience first. While he hasn't got the flashiest or most progressive profile in the race I think he has a definite e/w chance because the trainer has said this will be his gold cup whereas some of the other types like Aniable Fly (the favourite) will have bigger days in mind and I wonder if this race will come too soon for Frodon after his big handicap win in tough conditions last time out. Amore Alato has the Champion jockey on board and I think he could prove hard to catch if he can get the early lead he loves.
2.40 Kempton
This is a pretty tricky race now my main fancy, Vroom Vroom Mag is out! I've had a bet on Yanworth for the Champion Hurdle but that's at Cheltenham where the testing track will bring his stamina more into play than the flat 2 mile test at Kempton. I wonder if he will get slightly done for speed here and at the prices I will definitely be avoiding him. Gray Wolf River's connections deserve praise for spotting this opportunity but she has no chance, Ch'tibello has 22 lbs to find on ratings at least with The New One, 10lbs with My Tent or Yours and 12 with Yanworth so also looks to have been set a stiff task. Which brings it down the TNO or MTOY's for a bet in this race, and I think I'd have to side with the Tent to finally get a win on the boards at 4/1 compared to TNO at 15/8. However, with the feast of racing on offer on Monday I doubt I will bother betting in a race as trappy as this.
3.15 Kempton
What a King George - well in terms of a huge head to head clash that is. With only 5 runners there is not a huge quantity in the race but with Cue Card and Thistlecrack lining up to do battle this could be a race for the ages. In fact I am going to ignore Josses Hill, Conti and Tea for Two, all good horses but horses I do not expect to be winning a King George. We have to focus on the big 2; the proven form of Cue Card, Betfair Chase winner and reigning King George Champion coming up against the potential of Thistlecrack, winner of the World Hurdle last year and in possession of what I think could be the biggest engine in horse racing. And I'm siding with the potential that Thistlecrack brings to the table. I seriously think if he can jump well he could be one of the best horses we have ever seen , not just this season. The way he won the World Hurdle last year, jumping the last and still pulling for his head, just shows you the power under his bonnet and whist his jumping is still a work in progress, it is progressing. His performance last time out was much better than that we saw at Cheltenham the time before and if Tizzard can get him to progress again this could be a special performance. Cue Card will jump well and will serve up a huge challenge to his stablemate but I think in this small field, where his jumping should be under less pressure than a big field race, Thistlecrack can show us just what is under the bonnet and take King George glory.
Boxing Day Bets
1.05 Wincanton Dusky Lark
1.30 Kempton Sizing Tennessee
1.55 Down Royal The Storyteller
2.05 Kempton Amore Alato
3.15 Kempton Thistlecrack
1.05 Wincanton
Dusky Lark is the pick over at Wincanton in this 4 runner race. He finished second at Kempton and had been off the track for 200 days which was no mean feat. He looked a bit ring rusty and didn’t jump as well as he can but that is surely to be expected given that absence, after all there is only so well you can test them at home. I certainly think he is on a winning mark and he showed the benefit of that run when running close behind a very impressive winner in Poker School Ascot in early December. Will love some good winter ground according to the trainer and can finally get his head in front here.
1.30 Kempton
Sizing Tennessee has run a couple of excellent races for Colin Tizzard in Novice company and come up against some top horses in O O Seven and Whisper. Off a mark of 139 he is pretty interesting now sent handicapping in a field where there are no stand out horses IMO. Interestingly, Aidan Coleman reported that Sizing Tennessee jumped out the the right somewhat last time out so Kempton should help him post an improved performance in that regard. However, if Dusky Lark bolts up in the 1.05 at Wincanton then Poker School will have to be given maximum respect here so perhaps wait and see that the Lark does first!
1.55 Down Royal
We head over to Ireland for the 2nd bet and it is The Storyteller in this maiden hurdle. The form of his last run, a 2nd place to Monalee, is working out well with that horse going on to split Death Duty and Invitation Only in a hurdle at Navan last weekend, some very good form. That was only his 2nd run over hurdles, he was an unlucky faller in his first race when going very well, but the run last time out showed that has left no damage fortunately. I fancy The Storyteller to make it 3rd time lucky here.
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| Will this man be celebrating just after 2pm? |
2.05 Kempton
I reckon Amore Alato could be worth a right bet in the Novice Chase at Kempton (12/1 atm). He got off the mark first time out this season when making most of the running to land a Listed intermediate chase at Sandown seven weeks ago, and he usually comes on for the run looking at his form so should improve for that run. I also think this 3 mile trip should help, the trainer has said going 3 miles has been the long term plan but they wanted to give him a bit more experience first. While he hasn't got the flashiest or most progressive profile in the race I think he has a definite e/w chance because the trainer has said this will be his gold cup whereas some of the other types like Aniable Fly (the favourite) will have bigger days in mind and I wonder if this race will come too soon for Frodon after his big handicap win in tough conditions last time out. Amore Alato has the Champion jockey on board and I think he could prove hard to catch if he can get the early lead he loves.
2.40 Kempton
This is a pretty tricky race now my main fancy, Vroom Vroom Mag is out! I've had a bet on Yanworth for the Champion Hurdle but that's at Cheltenham where the testing track will bring his stamina more into play than the flat 2 mile test at Kempton. I wonder if he will get slightly done for speed here and at the prices I will definitely be avoiding him. Gray Wolf River's connections deserve praise for spotting this opportunity but she has no chance, Ch'tibello has 22 lbs to find on ratings at least with The New One, 10lbs with My Tent or Yours and 12 with Yanworth so also looks to have been set a stiff task. Which brings it down the TNO or MTOY's for a bet in this race, and I think I'd have to side with the Tent to finally get a win on the boards at 4/1 compared to TNO at 15/8. However, with the feast of racing on offer on Monday I doubt I will bother betting in a race as trappy as this.
3.15 Kempton
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| I certainly think the winner of the King George will be trained by this man, but which horse will it be? |
What a King George - well in terms of a huge head to head clash that is. With only 5 runners there is not a huge quantity in the race but with Cue Card and Thistlecrack lining up to do battle this could be a race for the ages. In fact I am going to ignore Josses Hill, Conti and Tea for Two, all good horses but horses I do not expect to be winning a King George. We have to focus on the big 2; the proven form of Cue Card, Betfair Chase winner and reigning King George Champion coming up against the potential of Thistlecrack, winner of the World Hurdle last year and in possession of what I think could be the biggest engine in horse racing. And I'm siding with the potential that Thistlecrack brings to the table. I seriously think if he can jump well he could be one of the best horses we have ever seen , not just this season. The way he won the World Hurdle last year, jumping the last and still pulling for his head, just shows you the power under his bonnet and whist his jumping is still a work in progress, it is progressing. His performance last time out was much better than that we saw at Cheltenham the time before and if Tizzard can get him to progress again this could be a special performance. Cue Card will jump well and will serve up a huge challenge to his stablemate but I think in this small field, where his jumping should be under less pressure than a big field race, Thistlecrack can show us just what is under the bonnet and take King George glory.
Boxing Day Bets
1.05 Wincanton Dusky Lark
1.30 Kempton Sizing Tennessee
1.55 Down Royal The Storyteller
2.05 Kempton Amore Alato
3.15 Kempton Thistlecrack
Thursday, 18 August 2016
York Races - Ebor Day
This Saturday we see the culmination of the York Ebor Festival, day 4 of a feast of racing that has seen the Yorkshire Oaks, The Nunthorpe, The Juddmonte and plenty of other cracking races. However, Saturday is the main day on the Knavesmire as this is host to the feature race of the meeting; The Ebor Heratige Handicap over 1 mile 6 furlongs. We look like getting a bit of rain in the area on Friday and Saturday, so I will be previewing races as if there is more good than good to firm which has been present on day's 1 & 2. And, with that caveat out the way, lets press on to the Saturday action.
1.45 - Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes (Handicap)
Initially I wanted to back a three year old in this handicap that opens the Saturday card, that is until I looked down at the previous 11 winners and found that precisely 0 three year olds had managed to win the race in this time period. This is especially interesting given the head of the market appears to feature a few three year olds, so may give us a slight advantage if this trend is continued. Indeed, another trend that struck me was that Richard Fahey has taken this race three times in that time period, and his runner Imshivilla looks quite interesting to me. Earlier this year she won a good handicap at Epsom over this distance off a mark 4 lbs lower than this, but since that race she ran on the all weather (may not have acted), over a mile (where she was a good 4th) and then at Goodwood, where the ground may have been too firm. This horse will appreciate all the rain that comes now, and back at her ideal trip with ground set to suit she is the each way selection in the opening race.
2.15 -Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3)
Up next we have a good looking Group 3 race in which I am taking a horse to step out of the shadow of his more illustrious stablemate, and horse he is often given pacemaking duties to, Time Test and show just how good he is in his own right. Countermeasure is the selection for me here, a horse taking a significant class drop having contested Group 2 and 1 races the last twice (and running with credit each time). Both those races have shown this horse to be a talented individual, and he has plenty of experience on softer ground in his past form. Now he has his chance to show just how good he is in his own right and I expect him to certainly make the frame.
2.50 -Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap)
In race three, a three year old handicap, I'm taking the trainer of the winner last year in Mark Johnston to provide the 2016 winner in the shape of Jaameh. The selection has caught my eye the last twice, firstly at Ripon where he was beaten by the progressive Knights Table but ran with credit on ground firmer than ideal and the last day, when staying on very nicely over 14 furlongs at Goodwood (turning form around with Knights Table). The way he was going at the end of that race makes this extra 2 furlongs in trip look certain to suit and with a bit of give in the ground also ideal considering the impression he left when romping to victory in soft ground at Haydock earlier this season Jaameh is the selection here.
3.25 - Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)
This is a seriously hot 2 year old race, with plenty of horses bringing very good form in the book to the table. I really fancied Blue Point to win at Goodwood the last day given the impression he had left following his 2 runs earlier this season. However, he was beaten by Mehmas, who produced one of the 2 year old performances of the season that day to take glory. Blue Point shaped well in behind however, only going down by a neck, is certainly suited by this 6 furlong trip (whereas some, like The Last Lion and Global Applause seem suited by 5 furlongs) and gets William Buick back on board, who won on him on debut. This looks a very good race, but I really liked Blue Point the first two times I saw him this season and do not want to desert him after a sole defeat.
4.00 -Betfred Ebor Heritage Handicap
The big race of the day, and indeed the feature race of the whole festival, the Ebor Heritage Handicap. And it isn't an easy one to get the winner of, with 25/, 33/1 and 25/1 winners in the last 5 renewals of the race so don't be put off if your selection is a big price! Unfortunately, past weights carried by winners are slightly redundant as the race has got classier and classier, indeed 2 winners of the last 5 renewals wouldn't even get into the race this year! However, I would still advise looking to the lower end of the weights, and maybe consider these other stats while narrowing down your pick...
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| Runners will come in front of packed grandstands on Saturday |
1.45 - Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes (Handicap)
Initially I wanted to back a three year old in this handicap that opens the Saturday card, that is until I looked down at the previous 11 winners and found that precisely 0 three year olds had managed to win the race in this time period. This is especially interesting given the head of the market appears to feature a few three year olds, so may give us a slight advantage if this trend is continued. Indeed, another trend that struck me was that Richard Fahey has taken this race three times in that time period, and his runner Imshivilla looks quite interesting to me. Earlier this year she won a good handicap at Epsom over this distance off a mark 4 lbs lower than this, but since that race she ran on the all weather (may not have acted), over a mile (where she was a good 4th) and then at Goodwood, where the ground may have been too firm. This horse will appreciate all the rain that comes now, and back at her ideal trip with ground set to suit she is the each way selection in the opening race.
2.15 -Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3)
Up next we have a good looking Group 3 race in which I am taking a horse to step out of the shadow of his more illustrious stablemate, and horse he is often given pacemaking duties to, Time Test and show just how good he is in his own right. Countermeasure is the selection for me here, a horse taking a significant class drop having contested Group 2 and 1 races the last twice (and running with credit each time). Both those races have shown this horse to be a talented individual, and he has plenty of experience on softer ground in his past form. Now he has his chance to show just how good he is in his own right and I expect him to certainly make the frame.
2.50 -Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap)
In race three, a three year old handicap, I'm taking the trainer of the winner last year in Mark Johnston to provide the 2016 winner in the shape of Jaameh. The selection has caught my eye the last twice, firstly at Ripon where he was beaten by the progressive Knights Table but ran with credit on ground firmer than ideal and the last day, when staying on very nicely over 14 furlongs at Goodwood (turning form around with Knights Table). The way he was going at the end of that race makes this extra 2 furlongs in trip look certain to suit and with a bit of give in the ground also ideal considering the impression he left when romping to victory in soft ground at Haydock earlier this season Jaameh is the selection here.
3.25 - Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)
This is a seriously hot 2 year old race, with plenty of horses bringing very good form in the book to the table. I really fancied Blue Point to win at Goodwood the last day given the impression he had left following his 2 runs earlier this season. However, he was beaten by Mehmas, who produced one of the 2 year old performances of the season that day to take glory. Blue Point shaped well in behind however, only going down by a neck, is certainly suited by this 6 furlong trip (whereas some, like The Last Lion and Global Applause seem suited by 5 furlongs) and gets William Buick back on board, who won on him on debut. This looks a very good race, but I really liked Blue Point the first two times I saw him this season and do not want to desert him after a sole defeat.
4.00 -Betfred Ebor Heritage Handicap
The big race of the day, and indeed the feature race of the whole festival, the Ebor Heritage Handicap. And it isn't an easy one to get the winner of, with 25/, 33/1 and 25/1 winners in the last 5 renewals of the race so don't be put off if your selection is a big price! Unfortunately, past weights carried by winners are slightly redundant as the race has got classier and classier, indeed 2 winners of the last 5 renewals wouldn't even get into the race this year! However, I would still advise looking to the lower end of the weights, and maybe consider these other stats while narrowing down your pick...
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 6f or further
- 8 of the 9 winners at York came from a double figure stall
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season
Now, I'm not going to put up a horse who fills all of those trends, but the one I am suggesting is drawn 10, has won over course and distance, carries under 9 stone and has won this season. The pick for the Ebor is Shrewd for Iain Jardine who is enjoying an excellent season. Fine young apprentice Clifford Lee takes the ride, hence the lovely low weight after Lee's 7lbs claim is taken into account, and Shrewd comes here in fine fettle. He looks a horse who is continually progressive on the flat having made a very successful switch from the jumps code and this is very encouraging for his stamina reserves. As I say, he has won over this distance and over this course actually, will love a bit of give in the ground and looks like being a juicy e/w price for the feature race of the day.
4.35 - Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed)
The penultimate race of the say is a 2 year old race over 5 furlongs and it looks a tricky one, with plenty of unexposed types. I certainly couldn't be confident here but would go for potentially the most unexposed in the unbeaten Sutter County for Mark Johnston. The trainer has a fine record with 2 year old horses, and unlike a few of these who would prefer 6 furlongs or a stiff 5, the speed test of a York 5 furlong race should suit Sutter County down to the ground. He acts on ground with a bit of dig in, has been freshened up after his last run and could well have been kept for this race by Johnston.
5.05 -Betfred Apprentice Stakes (Handicap)
Finally, we end with an apprentice handicap over 5 furlongs and as the name suggests it is restricted to apprentice riders. Therefore, it is often an advantage to look for a rider who knows what they are doing on a horse and in Callum Shepherd I think we have one on the selection, El Astronaute for the John Quinn yard. He ran well at Goodwood at the Glorious Goodwood Festival but was drawn on the wrong side which made things very tough, so definitely upgrade his 10th place finish that day. The handicapper is starting to give him a chance now, he is actually 1 lbs lower than his last winning mark, and I think it is only a matter of time before he strikes in one of these sprint handicaps.
Many thanks for reading and good luck of you play!
Alex Bellew
Selections
1.45 Imshivilla e/w
2.15 Countermeasure
2.50 Jaameh e/w
3.25 Blue Point
4.00 Shrewd e/w
4.35 Sutter County
5.05 El Astronaute e/w
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