Aintree Grand National Day

The Grand National Blog

30 fences and 4 miles 514 yards...The Grand National

It's here; the race that almost stops Great Britain. It's when the once a year punters are out in force, your Nan actively encourages you to gamble and the RSPCA get ready for a big one. The Aintree Grand National. 4 miles 514 yards, 30 fences, 40 runners, lets be having you! There is a good supporting card as well so without further ado lets get involved in Day 3 of the Aintree Festival, starting with the big one

Aintree Grand National.

Last Year's Winner Rule the World

Well, as the SP's of previous winners show (33/1, 25/1, 25/1, 66/1, 33/1, 14/1, 10/1, 100/1!!!) you literally cannot rule anything out of this race. Don't be put off if you fancy one at a right price and just have a go! I like Just a Par (50/1)... He is a classy horse which you need for this race. One stat I found was that the last 12 winners of the Grand National had all won a race at least at Class 2 level before winning the big one. Well, Just a Par has winning form at Class 1 level over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Sandown, which is a testing track and really puts pressure on stamina. I was actually at the track that day and the horse flew home, I don't think stamina will be a problem here. He actually ran in the race last year, was 15th but I feel the ground was possibly too soft, still encouraging he got round. The good surface on offer this week should be much more to his liking and he rates a decent first horse.

However, in a 40 runner field I like to give myself a few darts. Stellar Notion (66/1) is my 2nd horse. He sits nicely on 10-9, is ridden by last years winning rider Danny Mullins, trained by Henry De-Bromhead who is a cracking trainer of steeplechasers and was a staying on 2nd last time out by Tiger Roll, who went on to win the 4 miler at Cheltenham. He will be ridden handy, hopefully avoiding trouble, should jump round and if he stays will definitely outrun his price.


Lastly, one at the head of the market would be The Young Master who missed the race last year to wait for this year's renewal and that could be a masterstroke by his trainer, Neil Mulholland. Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen, a jockey with an excellent record over these fences, a lover of good ground and coming here off the back of a decent prep run at Cheltenham his weight of 10-13 could prove lenient. He has plenty of winning form over 3 mile trips and shapes as if he will stay, is a nice jumper and at 20/1 is the third selection in the race

And onto the supporting card...

The Opening Handicap Hurdle

A big field, no easing into things here, and I'm going for an old lad here. He has plenty of excellent form, including Grade 1 winning form at this track, and ran in the World Hurdle, placing 7th last time out - Zarkandar. He was winning a grade 2 as recently as January this year, has a useful jockey claiming 7lbs and will love this ground and return to Aintree. If he retains his class he is still a very good horse and Paul Nicholls will have him primed for this, such is his desire to retain the Champion Trainer title. At around 20/1 the 10 year old is the e/w bet for the opener.

Zarkandar, the selection in race 1

Mersey Novices' Hurdle 

I really like one in here in Captain Forez, a horse that has been saved for this since his last run in December (unlike market leader Finian's Oscar who had to miss Cheltenham due to injury and there must be a few question marks over his fitness here). The selection is said to have come on massively since his last run, and Harry Skelton has been quoted as saying this horse is THE horse he has been looking forward too as Aintree. I can see him being primed for this, appreciating the trip and ground and running a really big race. You can bet him e/w at 11/1, a very fair price.

Maghull Novices' Chase

Another Paul Nicholls horse for me here in Politologue, who comes here off the back of a 4th place in the JLT behind the very impressive Yorkhill. But the key to this horse is that I hope he will be ridden more forcefully back down to this 2 mile trip, he was held up at Cheltenham over a longer trip and I don't believe that is the way to ride this horse. Fire him off with a positive ride, let him use his beautiful jumping, put Charbel under pressure (he fell at Cheltenham don't forget) and at around 5/1 he looks the value in the market. Prior to Cheltenham he had won 4 of his 5 races, only narrowly going down to Waiting Patiently in his sole defeat, and I think he can resume his progression in this Grade 1 race.


3 mile Handicap Hurdle

I want to be with Sizing Codelco here to make up for his flop of a run at Cheltenham in the Brown Advisory plate. Before Cheltenham this horse was being tipped up everywhere but just didn't run his race at all. I can't believe that was his true running, perhaps he doesn't actually like Cheltenham given he was pulled up in his previous visit to the track, finished 8th of 9 the time before and unseated rider the time before that, and I am willing to give him another chance back up in trip on real good ground. This flatter track should really give him the chance to stay this trip and he looks big if you can forgive his Cheltenham flop at 22/1, again e/w

Stayers Hurdle

Yanworth will head the market for this race but he looked so average at Cheltenham so I can't be having him, even if the step up in trip should suit. Cole Harden will give you a run for your money from the front but I think will find one too good again and that one this time could be Supasundae, the winner of the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. He is young, up and coming and arrives here in great form for a trainer who can do no wrong this season. He has actually beaten Yanworth in a bumper a few years ago, and if he can improve again for the step up in trip could be quite an exciting horse for next year and definitely good enough to win this.

Closing Race Handicap Hurdle for Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders

Well if you are looking for a bet to round off a lucky meeting, or make up for prior losses, then this isn't an easy one! Cousin Oscar is my selection for Donal McCain, a trainer with a real affinity for this meeting so don't be surprised if this has been the plan all season. Cousin Oscar has won his last 2 races at a lowly level but has gained some good experience, is only 5 so should still be improving and gets some good assistance from the saddle as James Cowley has ridden 31 winners in his career to date. 

Grand National Day Selections (All each way)

1.45 Zarkandar  
2.25 Captain Forez 
3.00 Politologue  
3.40 Sizing Codelco  
4.00 Supasundae 
5.15 Just a Par, Stellar Notion, The Young Master
6.15 Cousin Oscar  

Day 1 of Aintree...Small fields galore

Day 1 at Aintree and there are a right few races, some good Grade 1 action albeit not the most friendly e/w punting card. A lot of the races, well the first 4 anyway, are small fields. Indeed, with the Foxhunters coming in at 29 runners it has more runners than the first 4 races combined! But I've got a few selections and I'll detail those here, hopefully we can find some form ahead of the Grand National

Manifesto Novice's Chase

A 6 runner field to start us off, with a hot favourite in Top Notch, last seen chasing home Yorkhill in the JLT at Cheltenham. And you could argue if Yorkhill had turned up here he would be 3's on, therefore Top Notch is value. I think for sure he is the most likely winner, but at 6/5 I've my doubts about taking such a price, notably his long season. I'll look for something a bit fresher to take him on and will go for Flying Angel e/w, who was fairly fancied for the JLT himself but was pretty unlucky in running with fallers in front of him at vital times - watch it back he was basically brought to a standstill. Nigel Twiston-Davies is in better form than the rancid run he'd had prior to Cheltenham, having notched a few winners in recent times, and good ground will be fine. Could easily get us a little place here, or just bet him smaller stakes win only as an interest.

Juvenile Hurdle

This race does have a better e/w shape to it, but you are probably playing for 2nd and 3rd place behind hot fav, and supremely impressive Cheltenham winner Defi Du Seuil. Forth Bridge is the e/w selection here at around 16/1. He skipped Cheltenham so comes here fresh, has won his last 2 races including beating Project Bluebook (ran well in the Fred Winter) and will love this track and ground looking back at his form. With bookies paying 1/5 the odds first 3 you are getting 16/5 about Forth Bridge getting a place and that is more than fair given Divin Bear and Flying Tiger are his only real opposition for those places and they both come here off the back of a tough race in the Fred Winter.

The Bowl

Oh dear. This race is vile. 7 runners, 2 places e/w, the head of the market dominated by Cue Card (fell when beaten at Cheltenham) and Empire of Dirt (bit worried by the Gordon Elliott stable form given his price). But with only 2 places to aim at I'm really not keen on betting e/w. So I'll just put up 2 win only bets. 1 is the aforementioned Empire of Dirt who will definitely appreciate the step up back in trip, should be fine with the ground and the form of his Irish Gold Cup 2nd doesn't look too bad now with the winner since winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I'm held back from making him the only bet because Elliott seems to have hit a bit of a lull with his winners since Cheltenham though, so I'll throw another dart with Tea for Two, who Lizzie Kelly fell off early on in the Gold Cup thus avoiding any kind of hard race. I'd much rather this race be right handed when tipping this horse, but he is talented, a bit more of an up and comer as opposed to veterans Cue Card and Sinviniaco Conti, ground and trip fine, Williams in decent form and looks a large price at 16/1. Small stakes, 2 runners against the field rather than 1 e/w bet.

Aintree Hurdle

Again, dominated by Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D'Air so we look at an e/w angle. And again, there are only 6 runners so we only get 2 places. For me I'd just take My Tent or Yours without the favourite. The Tent comes here off a cracking run at Cheltenham, seems to be settling better this year which will give him more of a chance of staying this extended trip, is a course winner and was 2nd in this race to Annie Power last year. The New One should run his race, and is the main danger to my selection but we did beat him nicely at Cheltenham. I can't have Identity Thief, his confidence must be shot to pieces after his runs over fences this year, and the other 2 are not of the Tent's class. If Coleman can give this another good ride I think he can make it a JP 1-2 in the race.

Foxhunters

Not a race I know a huge amount about I confess. But Black Thunder would be a tentative e/w bet here under a very good jockey over these fences in Sam Waley-Cohen. He was pulled up at Cheltenham but I would hope a return to Aintree, he has run OK here before, could spark some improvement and he could be an e/w bet in a 29 runner field.

Red Rum Handicap

The last race I have a selection in, and it is my bet of the day at Aintree. Annoyingly the race only has 15 runners, but some bookies are paying 4 places still, so I put up Double W's here. it was quietly fancied before Cheltenham and was leading round the home turn but got found out by the 2 mile 4 trip and Cheltenham hill. Back down to 2 miles, on an easier track, can't see it out the first 4 and if you do bet with a bookie who pays 4 places looks a knocking e/w bet.

Day 1 Aintree

1.45 Flying Angel e/w
2.20 Forth Bridge e/w
2.50 Empire of Dirt and Tea for Two win only, split stakes
3.25 My Tent or Yours without the fav
4.00 Black Thunder e/w
4.40 Double W's e/w

Grand National...Early selection!

Ok, nice and early here. And it's barely worth a blog, because I'm just posting my early thoughts on my fancy for the race. For sure I'll have other bets in the race, but one horse I am really keen on is currently available at 50/1 and definitely makes the line up. And that horse is Just a Par...

Just A Par is miles too big a price at 50/1 in my opinion for the Grand National.  He is a classy horse which you need for this race. One stat I found was that the last 12 winners of the Grand National had all won a race at least at Class 2 level before winning the big one. Well, Just a Par has winning form at Class 1 level over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Sandown, which is a testing track and really puts pressure on stamina. I was actually at the track that day and the horse flew home, I don't think stamina will be a problem here.

He actually ran in the race last year, was 15th but I feel the ground was possibly too soft, still encouraging he got round. The good surface on offer this week should be much more to his liking and he comes here off the back of a win in early March, which is encouraging and ensures he will make the line up.

Harry Cobden is a good jockey who takes the ride and at 50/1 he is worth an e/w bet for sure .

I've backed him at 40/1 with betvictor for the 6 places e/w, because other bookies will only give 4 or 5 at a push so sightly shorter odds worth it for the 6 places.

Come on Just a Par!

Just A Par (nearest) in The bet365 Gold Cup Chase which he won